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flybynight
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Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:37 pm

I would think that JAL would be interested even with DL and ANA flying the route. A perfect fit for one of their 787's.
Beyond that I wonder if any other Middle Eastern airline has their focus on SEA. Also I am surprised their isn't anything from Mexico or Central/South America.
Maybe Norwegian as well? Man, would I like a direct fly to OSL from SEA!
Heia Norge!
 
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787fan8
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:41 pm

I could see CX starting service to SEA. Maybe QR too.
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ANA787
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:48 pm

flybynight wrote:
I would think that JAL would be interested even with DL and ANA flying the route. A perfect fit for one of their 787's.
Beyond that I wonder if any other Middle Eastern airline has their focus on SEA. Also I am surprised their isn't anything from Mexico or Central/South America.
Maybe Norwegian as well? Man, would I like a direct fly to OSL from SEA!


SEA has nonstop service to Mexico. To four cities. PVR, SDJ, GDL and CUN.

EK already has the Middle East market covered from SEA with their 2x daily service.

If JAL came to SEA it would be a bloodbath with NH and DL already on SEA-NRT.

DL is struggling with SEA-HKG, you expect CX to do any better, especially with AC/CX operating YVR-HKG a few times daily nearby?

Norwegian Summer seasonal could be a possibility. Maybe next year.
Last edited by ANA787 on Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ahj2000
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Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:58 pm

My votes are JAL and CX.
JAL would have the AS customer base as DL and AS split more, as well as cnnx to many destinations that AA does not have or serves inefficiently for JL. I'd bet on 788 as a starting a/c

CX, on the other hand could just easily kill off DL's attempt at SEA-HKG. Daily 777/350.
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IPFreely
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Re:

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:09 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
JAL would have the AS customer base as DL and AS split more, as well as cnnx to many destinations that AA does not have or serves inefficiently for JL.


For JAL to get feed from AS their code sharing agreement would need to expand to make seamless flights to and from Japan via SEA. I'm not sure AA would sit and watch that happen since it would steal at least some AA customers who connect to JAL in LAX and even in DFW and ORD.
 
raylee67
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:12 pm

The way I look at it: who's Alaska's partner but not flying to SEA?
AeroMexico, Air France (but Delta is flying to CDG from SEA so AF is technically represented due to JV), CX, Fiji, JAL, KLM (same as AF, DL flies to AMS from SEA), LAN, QANTAS

And then from that list, which one would be able to utilize SEA as a connection point and which one has high potential for O&D traffic?
- For AM and LAN: SEA not good point for connection from MEX. Seattle does not have a high Hispanic population. Seattle's business does not have strong connection with Latin America (think Amazon, Boeing, Microsoft, Starbucks, etc., any strong connection between them and South America? No), so AM and LAN not likely
- For Fiji and QANTAS: again, LAX makes way more sense as connection point than SEA. There may be some tourist traffic from Pacific Northwest to Fiji and Australia, but that would be highly seasonal. Australia's economy is resource based, not a strong link with Seattle. So again, not likely
- For AF and KLM, they virtually serves SEA thru JV with DL, so they don't need to fly to SEA. The only chance they would fly to SEA is there is some equipment swap with DL due to fleet optimization, etc.
- That leaves JAL and CX, surprise surprise. JAL would face competition from NH and DL, but JAL has an advantage here: it can provide connection on both side. Both NH and DL cannot do that. 788 would be the ideal plane for JAL to come back to this market. CX would need to compete with DL, but again, CX has connection at both ends, plus it would be able to serve VFR traffic from Seattle area to Southeast Asia and southern China. It has many 359 coming in next year and they are going to be used to open new routes after the first 9 of them are used to replace A343. I would think SEA is a prime target for A359 deployment. Moreover, the newer A333 in CX's fleet can probably be used for SEA too.
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wenders825
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:27 pm

raylee67 wrote:
- That leaves JAL and CX, surprise surprise. JAL would face competition from NH and DL, but JAL has an advantage here: it can provide connection on both side. Both NH and DL cannot do that. 788 would be the ideal plane for JAL to come back to this market. CX would need to compete with DL, but again, CX has connection at both ends, plus it would be able to serve VFR traffic from Seattle area to Southeast Asia and southern China. It has many 359 coming in next year and they are going to be used to open new routes after the first 9 of them are used to replace A343. I would think SEA is a prime target for A359 deployment. Moreover, the newer A333 in CX's fleet can probably be used for SEA too.

nailed it. JAL and CX both have massive advantages with both AS feed and their own feed on the other end. I see both routes being strong possibilities within the next year or so.
 
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Re: Re:

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:32 pm

IPFreely wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
I'm not sure AA would sit and watch that happen since it would steal at least some AA customers who connect to JAL in LAX and even in DFW and ORD.


Of course, there is a chance that part of the approval process for the AS/VX merger is a softening of the relationship between AS and AA.
 
toobz
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:36 pm

out of curiosity..why do people say DL is struggling on HKG?? its operated 6 times a week compared to 3 last year
 
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:40 pm

raylee67 wrote:
The way I look at it: who's Alaska's partner but not flying to SEA?
AeroMexico, Air France (but Delta is flying to CDG from SEA so AF is technically represented due to JV), CX, Fiji, JAL, KLM (same as AF, DL flies to AMS from SEA), LAN, QANTAS

And then from that list, which one would be able to utilize SEA as a connection point and which one has high potential for O&D traffic?
- For AM and LAN: SEA not good point for connection from MEX. Seattle does not have a high Hispanic population. Seattle's business does not have strong connection with Latin America (think Amazon, Boeing, Microsoft, Starbucks, etc., any strong connection between them and South America? No), so AM and LAN not likely
- For Fiji and QANTAS: again, LAX makes way more sense as connection point than SEA. There may be some tourist traffic from Pacific Northwest to Fiji and Australia, but that would be highly seasonal. Australia's economy is resource based, not a strong link with Seattle. So again, not likely
- For AF and KLM, they virtually serves SEA thru JV with DL, so they don't need to fly to SEA. The only chance they would fly to SEA is there is some equipment swap with DL due to fleet optimization, etc.
- That leaves JAL and CX, surprise surprise. JAL would face competition from NH and DL, but JAL has an advantage here: it can provide connection on both side. Both NH and DL cannot do that. 788 would be the ideal plane for JAL to come back to this market. CX would need to compete with DL, but again, CX has connection at both ends, plus it would be able to serve VFR traffic from Seattle area to Southeast Asia and southern China. It has many 359 coming in next year and they are going to be used to open new routes after the first 9 of them are used to replace A343. I would think SEA is a prime target for A359 deployment. Moreover, the newer A333 in CX's fleet can probably be used for SEA too.


Agreed. One issue is that Seattle is no longer courting airlines to fly during peak times. So, any new international service would need to be at off peak times. I don't know if that would necessarily work for them. The international arrivals area just can't handle more peak traffic.
 
wenders825
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Re: Re:

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:52 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
I'm not sure AA would sit and watch that happen since it would steal at least some AA customers who connect to JAL in LAX and even in DFW and ORD.


Of course, there is a chance that part of the approval process for the AS/VX merger is a softening of the relationship between AS and AA.

there's no "softening" needed, their relationship is still very strong, if not stronger.

believe me
 
[email protected]
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:59 pm

Would love to see SK return with their CPH flights. But not likely before they start taking A350s.
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:24 pm

I think CX will start service as soon as it has enough A350s. And I think that service (with feed on both ends) will cause DL massive pain, although DL is so devoted to growing in Seattle that DL may endure the pain. There's no route on which DL feels its lack of 787s more acutely than SEA-HKG. Without any HKG feed its A350 will be awfully big, and the 332 is challenged by the length of the route.
 
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:30 pm

ANA787 wrote:
flybynight wrote:
I would think that JAL would be interested even with DL and ANA flying the route. A perfect fit for one of their 787's.
Beyond that I wonder if any other Middle Eastern airline has their focus on SEA. Also I am surprised their isn't anything from Mexico or Central/South America.
Maybe Norwegian as well? Man, would I like a direct fly to OSL from SEA!


SEA has nonstop service to Mexico. To four cities. PVR, SDJ, GDL and CUN.

EK already has the Middle East market covered from SEA with their 2x daily service.

If JAL came to SEA it would be a bloodbath with NH and DL already on SEA-NRT.

DL is struggling with SEA-HKG, you expect CX to do any better, especially with AC/CX operating YVR-HKG a few times daily nearby?

Norwegian Summer seasonal could be a possibility. Maybe next year.

For one, DL has 6x weekly on SEA-HKG with loads in the 90's, as opposed to 2x weekly last winter. While the flight may be weight restricted, it's still doing well, based on that. I don't know about yields though. Also, I think JAL could serve SEA since with ICN, arguably a smaller market than NRT, they have 3 daily flights with 777 and 767 aircraft, and all flights are doing well. Because of that, I think JAL could coexist on SEA-NRT since it works with ICN and the market is high-yielding, with $1,500 RT in Y 6 months out.
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Re: Re:

Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:38 pm

wenders825 wrote:
Of course, there is a chance that part of the approval process for the AS/VX merger is a softening of the relationship between AS and AA.

there's no "softening" needed, their relationship is still very strong, if not stronger.

believe me[/quote]
I think that IPFreely was referring to a possible requirement on the part of regulators to soften the AS relationship with AA as a condition of approval of the merger.
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IPFreely
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:46 pm

toobz wrote:
out of curiosity..why do people say DL is struggling on HKG?? its operated 6 times a week compared to 3 last year


Maybe it's not very profitable? A quick search shows an economy round trip with 2 week advance notice is $500 -- less than many domestic flights that are 1/20th the distance.
 
subramak1
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:49 pm

raylee67 wrote:
The way I look at it: who's Alaska's partner but not flying to SEA?
AeroMexico, Air France (but Delta is flying to CDG from SEA so AF is technically represented due to JV), CX, Fiji, JAL, KLM (same as AF, DL flies to AMS from SEA), LAN, QANTAS

- That leaves JAL and CX, surprise surprise. JAL would face competition from NH and DL, but JAL has an advantage here: it can provide connection on both side. Both NH and DL cannot do that. 788 would be the ideal plane for JAL to come back to this market. CX would need to compete with DL, but again, CX has connection at both ends, plus it would be able to serve VFR traffic from Seattle area to Southeast Asia and southern China. It has many 359 coming in next year and they are going to be used to open new routes after the first 9 of them are used to replace A343. I would think SEA is a prime target for A359 deployment. Moreover, the newer A333 in CX's fleet can probably be used for SEA too.


CX could also cater to Amazon/ Microsoft business traffic to MAA/BLR/HYD along with VFR traffic to India. Though they will need to upguage their flights from HKG to India as they are currently full ( dont ask me about profit?)

Subu
 
b6sea
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:09 pm

[email protected] wrote:
Would love to see SK return with their CPH flights. But not likely before they start taking A350s.



Same! Even though I'm generally a Boeing guy, I live on an island near the airport and I used to see those SK A340s take off and land across the water and it was amazing. I'm not sure of the business case, but I do think a link to Scandinavia could be fairly successful.

Latin America flights from SEA don't seem to work very well. It would be wrong to say there aren't any business connections with Latin America. Most of the major global companies in Seattle have some presence in Latin America as they do in every other corner of the world, although it's not quite on the scale of what goes on in Asia or Europe. It's also true that Seattle's Latin American population isn't huge compared to other American cities. It's also not non-existent either, and if you add in Eastern Washington it's even larger. I think Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Peruvians are your biggest groups. I've always thought Copa to Panama City would be the perfect gateway for Seattle travelers to South America, but maybe that's beyond the range of Copa's 737s, I don't remember.

I'm not sure why people think the YVR flights to HKG are popular with Seattle-origin travelers to HKG. YVR is expensive to fly out of and hard to get to. People head to SFO before they go to YVR for flights to Asia if they aren't flying direct. I know on a map it looks convenient but driving to Canada isn't exactly without headaches and the QX or AC flights to YVR aren't exactly cheap. I'm sure people do go to YVR, but I don't think the numbers are huge compared to other gateways even though they're backtracking. DL's flight seems to be doing quite well and I would love to see CX on the route, but it's hard to say if that would happen or make sense. I guess it would depend on what kind of feed CX could provide at HKG and what kind of feed they could get from AS in SEA.

My other thought is that a QF flight to SYD could be extremely successful, although it's further than LAX or SFO, I do think there's strong seasonal local demand to Australia as well as fairly significant business ties. Add in connecting traffic from the great lakes area from AS, you could probably make it happen. I'm sure the airlines have better statistics and market research than I do, but this is one that I really believe, if someone tried it, they would be handsomely rewarded.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:25 pm

I think you all forgot that AM already tried the SEA-MEX route using 737-700 equipment and it did not pan out. Volaris just started redeye service between SEA and GDL with A320's. JAL is doubtful now since they are now losing money. CX announced a new look at their capacity, so I give them a 50/50 chance in the next year. In the recent past, there had been chatter of TG coming back to SEA, when they get back on their feet from a certification standpoint. Don't forget VA is replacing DL on the SEA-LHR route in April of 2017. I'm a little surprised by the fact that DY hasn't given SEA (or PDX) a try. I also wouldn't mind seeing Edelweiss or XL Airways at SEA. Lastly, with Xiamen Airlines' entry in the SEA-SZX service, I could definitely see China Southern trying the SEA-Guangzhou service. Just my 2 cents.
 
b6sea
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:38 pm

I'm now remembering that people have been talking about CI potentially returning at some indeterminate point in the future.
 
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ER757
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:44 pm

Long shot here but what about AI? A lot of EK's passengers to/from Seattle are transit passengers through DXB with origin/destination India
Maybe not daily, but 3X per week?
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:53 pm

b6sea wrote:
[email protected] wrote:
Would love to see SK return with their CPH flights. But not likely before they start taking A350s.



Same! Even though I'm generally a Boeing guy, I live on an island near the airport and I used to see those SK A340s take off and land across the water and it was amazing. I'm not sure of the business case, but I do think a link to Scandinavia could be fairly successful.

Latin America flights from SEA don't seem to work very well. It would be wrong to say there aren't any business connections with Latin America. Most of the major global companies in Seattle have some presence in Latin America as they do in every other corner of the world, although it's not quite on the scale of what goes on in Asia or Europe. It's also true that Seattle's Latin American population isn't huge compared to other American cities. It's also not non-existent either, and if you add in Eastern Washington it's even larger. I think Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Peruvians are your biggest groups. I've always thought Copa to Panama City would be the perfect gateway for Seattle travelers to South America, but maybe that's beyond the range of Copa's 737s, I don't remember.

I'm not sure why people think the YVR flights to HKG are popular with Seattle-origin travelers to HKG. YVR is expensive to fly out of and hard to get to. People head to SFO before they go to YVR for flights to Asia if they aren't flying direct. I know on a map it looks convenient but driving to Canada isn't exactly without headaches and the QX or AC flights to YVR aren't exactly cheap. I'm sure people do go to YVR, but I don't think the numbers are huge compared to other gateways even though they're backtracking. DL's flight seems to be doing quite well and I would love to see CX on the route, but it's hard to say if that would happen or make sense. I guess it would depend on what kind of feed CX could provide at HKG and what kind of feed they could get from AS in SEA.

My other thought is that a QF flight to SYD could be extremely successful, although it's further than LAX or SFO, I do think there's strong seasonal local demand to Australia as well as fairly significant business ties. Add in connecting traffic from the great lakes area from AS, you could probably make it happen. I'm sure the airlines have better statistics and market research than I do, but this is one that I really believe, if someone tried it, they would be handsomely rewarded.


Just my opinion on SEA, which doesn't really contradict your thoughts, but to me Latin America makes very little sense outside of perhaps an AS MAX flight somewhere. Even then, hard to imagine. Overflying LAX just seems unnecessary. As for eastern Washington, I'd think the traffic generated there is so weighted towards VFR to Mexico that there likely isn't much of a business case for adding additional flights. The price point is going to be critical and most of the folks that I know in our area are primarily from Michoacan and they tend to favor cheap flights over IAH. There just doesn't seem to be a demand (imho) for a higher yielding nonstop in most of these markets.
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b6sea
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:59 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
b6sea wrote:
[email protected] wrote:
Would love to see SK return with their CPH flights. But not likely before they start taking A350s.



Same! Even though I'm generally a Boeing guy, I live on an island near the airport and I used to see those SK A340s take off and land across the water and it was amazing. I'm not sure of the business case, but I do think a link to Scandinavia could be fairly successful.

Latin America flights from SEA don't seem to work very well. It would be wrong to say there aren't any business connections with Latin America. Most of the major global companies in Seattle have some presence in Latin America as they do in every other corner of the world, although it's not quite on the scale of what goes on in Asia or Europe. It's also true that Seattle's Latin American population isn't huge compared to other American cities. It's also not non-existent either, and if you add in Eastern Washington it's even larger. I think Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Peruvians are your biggest groups. I've always thought Copa to Panama City would be the perfect gateway for Seattle travelers to South America, but maybe that's beyond the range of Copa's 737s, I don't remember.

I'm not sure why people think the YVR flights to HKG are popular with Seattle-origin travelers to HKG. YVR is expensive to fly out of and hard to get to. People head to SFO before they go to YVR for flights to Asia if they aren't flying direct. I know on a map it looks convenient but driving to Canada isn't exactly without headaches and the QX or AC flights to YVR aren't exactly cheap. I'm sure people do go to YVR, but I don't think the numbers are huge compared to other gateways even though they're backtracking. DL's flight seems to be doing quite well and I would love to see CX on the route, but it's hard to say if that would happen or make sense. I guess it would depend on what kind of feed CX could provide at HKG and what kind of feed they could get from AS in SEA.

My other thought is that a QF flight to SYD could be extremely successful, although it's further than LAX or SFO, I do think there's strong seasonal local demand to Australia as well as fairly significant business ties. Add in connecting traffic from the great lakes area from AS, you could probably make it happen. I'm sure the airlines have better statistics and market research than I do, but this is one that I really believe, if someone tried it, they would be handsomely rewarded.


Just my opinion on SEA, which doesn't really contradict your thoughts, but to me Latin America makes very little sense outside of perhaps an AS MAX flight somewhere. Even then, hard to imagine. Overflying LAX just seems unnecessary. As for eastern Washington, I'd think the traffic generated there is so weighted towards VFR to Mexico that there likely isn't much of a business case for adding additional flights. The price point is going to be critical and most of the folks that I know in our area are primarily from Michoacan and they tend to favor cheap flights over IAH. There just doesn't seem to be a demand (imho) for a higher yielding nonstop in most of these markets.


Totally agree.
 
mpdpilot
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:03 pm

b6sea wrote:
I'm not sure why people think the YVR flights to HKG are popular with Seattle-origin travelers to HKG. YVR is expensive to fly out of and hard to get to. People head to SFO before they go to YVR for flights to Asia if they aren't flying direct. I know on a map it looks convenient but driving to Canada isn't exactly without headaches and the QX or AC flights to YVR aren't exactly cheap. I'm sure people do go to YVR, but I don't think the numbers are huge compared to other gateways even though they're backtracking.


While I can't speak to how many people do it, I just did it recently because flying out of YVR was cheaper, even with a train ticket.

I do second that CX and JL are the most likely. I feel like CX is unusually popular in the US for it being out of the way for some connections (compared to NRT and ICN), they still offer a very robust schedule to the US.
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
 
NichCage
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:05 pm

[email protected] wrote:
Would love to see SK return with their CPH flights. But not likely before they start taking A350s.


While I would like to see flights on SK between SEA & CPH to resume, there is something you need to know first about the route when it was still operating.

SK flew between SEA & CPH for over 40 years I believe. It was a very historic route, but there were many problems it faced before it got cut. Before airlines such as Air France, Lufthansa, and Icelandair came to SEA, there were much less flights to Europe. British Airways flew to LHR, Northwest Airlines flew to AMS, and SAS flew to CPH. However, with SAS struggling to be profitable between the years of 2007 and 2012, they had to make many changes. I believe at the time that with all the competiton that came to SEA from Europe, which was Icelandair, Air France, and Lufthansa, caused SAS to struggle in SEA. They were already having probelms with being profitable, and they had to cut long haul flights. They cut SEA because I think it was not profitable for them, and I don't think they will resume it. The CPH-SEA market must be big, and if someone could provide the yearly amount of passengers that travel on the route that would be great. Even if a large amount of passengers fly the route every year, airlines like BA and LH must carry passengers between SEA & CPH much better than SAS would if they restarted the route.

If you found a source which said SAS will come back to SEA with the A350, I would like a link to it. However, no doubt SAS will not consider returning to SEA because it is not profitable for them to operate the route again.

Please correct me if I am wrong on some points, and also how many passengers per year travel between SEA & CPH?
 
PDX757
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:38 pm

Personally I would love to see Aeroflot resume service. It was axed over 10 years ago, but from what I recall it operated for quite a long time, including some flights to the Russian far east. IIRC the flight from SVO continued on to SFO,maybe the SEA stop became obsolete when longer range aircraft came online.
 
masgniw
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:47 pm

What about WestJet? They appear to compete rather reasonably on other West Coast USA routes.
 
b6sea
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:59 pm

masgniw wrote:
What about WestJet? They appear to compete rather reasonably on other West Coast USA routes.


I have wondered this too. I'm just trying to figure out where they would fly to SEA from. If it's YYC, I imagine they don't like the competition from AS and DL (along with the seasonal AC service). I doubt they would serve YVR with it being so close and with an even larger amount of competition like driving and the train. YYZ seems like a potential route with just AC on the route, but I imagine AS would have jumped on that route if there was room for a second airline. I'd love to see someone open up YWG or YUL from SEA, but, again, I think AS would be the one to do it if that were to happen (maybe AC on YUL).
 
masgniw
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:11 pm

b6sea wrote:
masgniw wrote:
What about WestJet? They appear to compete rather reasonably on other West Coast USA routes.


I have wondered this too. I'm just trying to figure out where they would fly to SEA from. If it's YYC, I imagine they don't like the competition from AS and DL (along with the seasonal AC service). I doubt they would serve YVR with it being so close and with an even larger amount of competition like driving and the train. YYZ seems like a potential route with just AC on the route, but I imagine AS would have jumped on that route if there was room for a second airline. I'd love to see someone open up YWG or YUL from SEA, but, again, I think AS would be the one to do it if that were to happen (maybe AC on YUL).


I wouldn't rule out YVR. It's ~the 10th busiest route from SEA and the top int'l destination. In 2015, the route grew by 13%. The 737 might be a little bit much for this route though.
 
b6sea
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:16 pm

masgniw wrote:
b6sea wrote:
masgniw wrote:
What about WestJet? They appear to compete rather reasonably on other West Coast USA routes.


I have wondered this too. I'm just trying to figure out where they would fly to SEA from. If it's YYC, I imagine they don't like the competition from AS and DL (along with the seasonal AC service). I doubt they would serve YVR with it being so close and with an even larger amount of competition like driving and the train. YYZ seems like a potential route with just AC on the route, but I imagine AS would have jumped on that route if there was room for a second airline. I'd love to see someone open up YWG or YUL from SEA, but, again, I think AS would be the one to do it if that were to happen (maybe AC on YUL).


I wouldn't rule out YVR. It's ~the 10th busiest route from SEA and the top int'l destination. In 2015, the route grew by 13%. The 737 might be a little bit much for this route though.


For some reason I had it in my head that Westjet didn't use Encore on transborder routes, but it appears that there is, indeed a precedent for that happening, so I'd love to see that happen.
 
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SEAtown
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:20 pm

JL is the obvious choice.

I've heard TK floating around the rumor mill here too.
"When you go out to battle against your enemies and see horses and chariots and people more numerous than you, do not be afraid of them; for the LORD your God is with you." Deuteronomy 20:1
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:26 pm

b6sea wrote:
Latin America flights from SEA don't seem to work very well.


The market's just not big enough.

The best way to improve SEA connections to Latin America would be for UA to add a couple more daily nonstops to IAH. That's a route I fly regularly and lately it has been capacity-constrained, with poor availability and expensive fares. Either UA or AS additions would be useful for the local market but additional UA capacity would be particularly useful for Latin America connections.
 
Chugach
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:04 am

seabosdca wrote:
b6sea wrote:
Latin America flights from SEA don't seem to work very well.


The market's just not big enough.

The best way to improve SEA connections to Latin America would be for UA to add a couple more daily nonstops to IAH. That's a route I fly regularly and lately it has been capacity-constrained, with poor availability and expensive fares. Either UA or AS additions would be useful for the local market but additional UA capacity would be particularly useful for Latin America connections.


AS has added a redeye SEA-IAH section the last couple of summers, but it seems like there's room for additional daytime service on that route. Might become more feasible as more new next-gen 737s come online.
 
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VCEflyboy
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 1:01 am

Vietnam airlines anyone? They've got those shiny new 787s and a350s just screaming to fly to the USA. SEA would be a logical destination also considering they are sky team member like delta.
 
DFW789ER
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 1:50 am

SEAtown wrote:
JL is the obvious choice.

I've heard TK floating around the rumor mill here too.


TK is a mess right now, they are scaling back considerably. Until the political and economical situation is stabilized, TK probably isn't going to add many long haul services.
 
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ER757
Posts: 3774
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:13 am

PDX757 wrote:
Personally I would love to see Aeroflot resume service. It was axed over 10 years ago, but from what I recall it operated for quite a long time, including some flights to the Russian far east. IIRC the flight from SVO continued on to SFO,maybe the SEA stop became obsolete when longer range aircraft came online.

Yes, seeing Aeroflot here again would be great. Wouldn't also be cool to see the return of two carriers from the distant past - Finnair and Thai? Yes, I know it'll never happen but as long as we are dreaming.........
 
hayzel777
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:18 am

CI should be starting SEA-TPE
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:22 am

b6sea wrote:
[email protected] wrote:
Would love to see SK return with their CPH flights. But not likely before they start taking A350s.


My other thought is that a QF flight to SYD could be extremely successful, although it's further than LAX or SFO, I do think there's strong seasonal local demand to Australia as well as fairly significant business ties. Add in connecting traffic from the great lakes area from AS, you could probably make it happen. I'm sure the airlines have better statistics and market research than I do, but this is one that I really believe, if someone tried it, they would be handsomely rewarded.

QF is barely doing YVR and only recently returned to SFO so SEA would probably be some time away.
From this corner of the world NZ would be more likely than QF. NZ can capture pretty much all of the Australian market from the main cities and adds the New Zealand market to that along with it's Pacific Island network.
NZ looks to be heading down the 787 point to point road (with AKL hub) with more destinations rather than building more capacity/frequencies to each destination.
Expect to see YVR change over to 787 (which would be a down-gauge). However since some of that traffic is crossing the border to Washington then a SEA service might work (otherwise they might look at PDX). NZ is apparently currently contemplating adding one of ORD/DEN/JFK/LAS-AKL there is a chance that SEA might also be in the running.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:26 am

hayzel777 wrote:
CI should be starting SEA-TPE


They say that, but it never seems to happen. I haven't seen the China Air announcement of resuming SEA yet.
 
hayzel777
Posts: 633
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:18 am

Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:27 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
CI should be starting SEA-TPE


They say that, but it never seems to happen. I haven't seen the China Air announcement of resuming SEA yet.


On their Facebook page, they put out a schedule for their A350. In Feb2017, they are supposed to fly it to "north america destination(s)"
 
2travel2know2
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:42 am

b6sea wrote:
[email protected] wrote:
I've always thought Copa to Panama City would be the perfect gateway for Seattle travelers to South America, but maybe that's beyond the range of Copa's 737s, I don't remember.
CM flies twice daily B737-800 from PTY to SFO with penalties because the market is there.
If the numbers call for it CM would fly PTY-SEA non-atop (B737-700?) w/penalties too.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:36 am

QF is barely doing YVR and only recently returned to SFO so SEA would probably be some time away.

I can definitely see QF flying their 787-9s on the SEA-SYD route and canceling SFO and YVR since QF and AS have a partnership.

CI should be starting SEA-TPE.

I wonder if that is the reason why BR is increasing their frequency at SEA to 10X per week.. There is going to be an early-morning arrival 3X per week.
 
dc10lover
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:17 am

The next airline would be Boutique with service from Pendleton, Oregon.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
wenders825
Posts: 372
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:33 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
QF is barely doing YVR and only recently returned to SFO so SEA would probably be some time away.

I can definitely see QF flying their 787-9s on the SEA-SYD route and canceling SFO and YVR since QF and AS have a partnership.

CI should be starting SEA-TPE.

I wonder if that is the reason why BR is increasing their frequency at SEA to 10X per week.. There is going to be an early-morning arrival 3X per week.

I doubt QF is going to drop those two routes. I know SFO does quite well for them, and I'm guessing YVR does too...plenty of Canada-Australia traffic. but I could very well see them start SEA with the 789.

I totally forgot about CI from the onset of this thread. they probably will be the absolute next airline to start service.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:07 am

wenders825 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
QF is barely doing YVR and only recently returned to SFO so SEA would probably be some time away.

I can definitely see QF flying their 787-9s on the SEA-SYD route and canceling SFO and YVR since QF and AS have a partnership.

CI should be starting SEA-TPE.

I wonder if that is the reason why BR is increasing their frequency at SEA to 10X per week.. There is going to be an early-morning arrival 3X per week.

I doubt QF is going to drop those two routes. I know SFO does quite well for them, and I'm guessing YVR does too...plenty of Canada-Australia traffic. but I could very well see them start SEA with the 789.

I totally forgot about CI from the onset of this thread. they probably will be the absolute next airline to start service.


As much as I'd love to see QF in SEA, I just don't see the driving need for it:

SEA-SYD 7739mi nonstop
Via SFO 8096mi
Via YVR 7884mi
Via HNL 7743mi (identical to the nonstop - this is how I'd go!)

Unless there's really that much demand from SEA and environs, I'd think AS feeding QF at one of the their other NA stations, or HA over HNL, would be fine.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
hayzel777
Posts: 633
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:18 am

Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:26 am

wenders825 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
QF is barely doing YVR and only recently returned to SFO so SEA would probably be some time away.

I can definitely see QF flying their 787-9s on the SEA-SYD route and canceling SFO and YVR since QF and AS have a partnership.

CI should be starting SEA-TPE.

I wonder if that is the reason why BR is increasing their frequency at SEA to 10X per week.. There is going to be an early-morning arrival 3X per week.

I doubt QF is going to drop those two routes. I know SFO does quite well for them, and I'm guessing YVR does too...plenty of Canada-Australia traffic. but I could very well see them start SEA with the 789.

I totally forgot about CI from the onset of this thread. they probably will be the absolute next airline to start service.


CI will most likely start it but i wouldn't expect an announcement until next year. With the mess they currently are in, there is no way they have time to deal with these route issues.

also i think br is increasing to 10x weekly to deter CI and take as much market as possible.
 
redadeco
Posts: 115
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:12 am

Pretty much one post out of 2 on this thread has the word YVR on it :) It shows how opening a new international route out of SEA highly depends on what's going on 150mi away.

Vancouver has an international feel that Seattle lacks, if an international carrier plans to start a route to the PNW then YVR comes first miles ahead of SEA.
Then all what you need to attract potential traffic from SEA is a partnership with AS.

I also would exclude a potential CX service to SEA, besides the existing DL service what makes CX very successful at YVR does not apply to SEA (Vancouver is home to a huge HK diaspora) unless CX is targeting connecting Indians and Viets.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7442
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:27 am

Zkpilot wrote:
b6sea wrote:
[email protected] wrote:
Would love to see SK return with their CPH flights. But not likely before they start taking A350s.


My other thought is that a QF flight to SYD could be extremely successful, although it's further than LAX or SFO, I do think there's strong seasonal local demand to Australia as well as fairly significant business ties. Add in connecting traffic from the great lakes area from AS, you could probably make it happen. I'm sure the airlines have better statistics and market research than I do, but this is one that I really believe, if someone tried it, they would be handsomely rewarded.

QF is barely doing YVR and only recently returned to SFO so SEA would probably be some time away.
From this corner of the world NZ would be more likely than QF. NZ can capture pretty much all of the Australian market from the main cities and adds the New Zealand market to that along with it's Pacific Island network.
NZ looks to be heading down the 787 point to point road (with AKL hub) with more destinations rather than building more capacity/frequencies to each destination.
Expect to see YVR change over to 787 (which would be a down-gauge). However since some of that traffic is crossing the border to Washington then a SEA service might work (otherwise they might look at PDX). NZ is apparently currently contemplating adding one of ORD/DEN/JFK/LAS-AKL there is a chance that SEA might also be in the running.


I personally doubt NZ will go to SEA, with YVR, SFO and LAX all on the west coast, LAS maybe would be quite popular but it's not a hub for UA. I'd say the longer haul to ORD next with EWR when a more capable long haul plane comes if QF plan JFK non stop from SYD to compete or take some of the Australian market there.
 
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flybynight
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:36 pm

A few thoughts:
1 - SEA should make the necessary upgrades to get the A380 in here. I know Emirates would like that and I could see BA and LH possibly taking advantage as well. If SEA wants to play with the bigger cities, they need to make this happen
2 - The upgrades to the airport are really needed. The international arrival is so far behind Vancouver for example. I know they are coming
3 - I am always surprised at the SAS removal. I flew on those 343's many times heading home to Norway and the flights were usually full. A lot of people liked connecting through Copenhagen because it was a better airport than say annoying Heathrow. No buses to get to another gate. Nice looking airport. Good shops. I really think SK should look at SEA again, or....
4 - Norwegian. Pick the city they could fly from. I think OSL would be great, but London would likely work too. Or CPH
5- Icelandair is such a great connection to Europe. If you don't mind flying on 20 year old 757's (which I don't). I prefer a wide body on long hauls, but this will do
6 - YVR. A previous poster mentioned that it is more expensive. I have found pretty much just the opposite. Shopping for flights to Europe on an annual bases I frequently find Vancouver less expensive than Seattle. Since I live both in Seattle and Vancouver I am fine with either airport. Frankly, YVR is nicer than SEA and traffic to YVR is easier through the hell that is I-5 or I-405 in Seattle.
7 - Thai would be nice. A direct flight into that region would make travel a lot more convenient.
8 - There is so much connection to India in Seattle that a direct flight would make sense. But isn't Air India a mess? Other options to India direct from SEA?
9 - I just don't picture direct flights to Australia or New Zealand.
10 - With Virgin coming does this mean Air France might come back or is all partner DL? Same for KLM
11 - Why is it so hard to get a flight between SEA and Miami? DL and AS...can't this work?
12 - AS to Cuba is happening...of course you need to stop at LAX. Can't the new MAX's make the flight direct when they enter the fleet (from SEA)?
13 - More freight? Could SEA take business from Anchorage perhaps?
14 - AS to Toronto? Expensive to land there but I wonder if it could work
Heia Norge!
 
usflyer123
Posts: 567
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Re: Next airline to come to SEA

Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:15 pm

alot of people said DY but it usually flies to touristic places, which Seattle dosent really offer(at least to INTL pax). i really think that CTU with Sichuan Airlines might work(perhaps another secondary china market).
for most people the sky is the limit. for those who love aviation, the sky is home...

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