JonathanRP
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BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Wed Nov 02, 2016 8:36 am

Posted a few hours ago on the BBC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37843752

Here's the new report that they're referring to:
http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5771773/ae ... ov2016.pdf

Please delete if already discussed.
 
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777Jet
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:47 am

JonathanRP wrote:
Here's the new report that they're referring to:
http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5771773/ae ... ov2016.pdf


Thank you for posting this. I found that linked report to be interesting.
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Pellegrine
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 3:16 am

I can't believe this does not have more posts. I guess many people have MH370itis. I really hope they do expand the search area. AFAIR there is only 10,000 sq. km to go and then the search is off. They haven't even searched all of the inner path.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 3:35 am

Can't believe this aircraft is still missing
 
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alberchico
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 3:46 am

Pellegrine wrote:
I can't believe this does not have more posts. I guess many people have MH370itis.


There have been several people clogging these threads with utter garbage and that is probably what drove people away.

I can't say their names but we all know who they are....
short summary of every jewish holiday: they tried to kill us ,we won , lets eat !
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 3:50 am

ikolkyo wrote:
Can't believe this aircraft is still missing


It's a big, big ocean out there... And nobody really has a clue where it went...not even near. And if it really dove full speed into the ocean, it broke up into so small pieces that there is not much of a "plane" left to find. A few pieces have already floated to distant shores, probably a few others will, too. But don't expect to find bigger pieces than that. Remember Germanwings? No piece was larger than 20x20 cm if I remember correctly. Hitting a mountain or hitting water is pretty much the same thing at that speed.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:08 am

The one thing I don't get is if Australia decides to stop the search on the grounds of cost shouldn't the Malaysians pick up the tab ?

After all it was a plane belonging to their national carrier.
short summary of every jewish holiday: they tried to kill us ,we won , lets eat !
 
MalevTU134
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:13 am

alberchico wrote:
The one thing I don't get is if Australia decides to stop the search on the grounds of cost shouldn't the Malaysians pick up the tab ?

After all it it was a plane belonging to their national carrier.


Again, there is probably not much of an "aircraft" out there to find. And they know that. But with the pressure from the relatives and other countries (China, mainly) it is not easy to say the things as they are. It is not easy to accept that the aircraft has, in fact, "vanished" . And sometimes it is even harder to find inner peace to accept the facts and the truth, than to find an aircraft.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:51 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Can't believe this aircraft is still missing


It's a big, big ocean out there... And nobody really has a clue where it went...not even near. And if it really dove full speed into the ocean, it broke up into so small pieces that there is not much of a "plane" left to find. A few pieces have already floated to distant shores, probably a few others will, too. But don't expect to find bigger pieces than that. Remember Germanwings? No piece was larger than 20x20 cm if I remember correctly. Hitting a mountain or hitting water is pretty much the same thing at that speed.


I get all of that, it's just crazy how a plane like a 777 can just vanish.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:54 am

ikolkyo wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Can't believe this aircraft is still missing


It's a big, big ocean out there... And nobody really has a clue where it went...not even near. And if it really dove full speed into the ocean, it broke up into so small pieces that there is not much of a "plane" left to find. A few pieces have already floated to distant shores, probably a few others will, too. But don't expect to find bigger pieces than that. Remember Germanwings? No piece was larger than 20x20 cm if I remember correctly. Hitting a mountain or hitting water is pretty much the same thing at that speed.


I get all of that, it's just crazy how a plane like a 777 can just vanish.


No. Crazy is not accepting that it can, and that it has.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:55 am

ikolkyo wrote:
Can't believe this aircraft is still missing


In 2012, an underwater volcano erupted in the South Pacific, leaving a pumice raft the size of a small country (Israel is often mentioned for comparison). And nobody noticed for a couple of weeks. It's easy to lose the sense of proportion how big and desolate the ocean really is, unless you're out there in a boat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Kerm ... s_eruption
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 6:28 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Can't believe this aircraft is still missing


It's a big, big ocean out there... And nobody really has a clue where it went...not even near. And if it really dove full speed into the ocean, it broke up into so small pieces that there is not much of a "plane" left to find. A few pieces have already floated to distant shores, probably a few others will, too. But don't expect to find bigger pieces than that. Remember Germanwings? No piece was larger than 20x20 cm if I remember correctly. Hitting a mountain or hitting water is pretty much the same thing at that speed.


The difference between Germanwings and MH370 is Germanwings hit on land. It was easy to spot.

What I want to know is: if they now can tell the flaps were set to cruise when it hit, why can they not figure out where it it? Or close to that position? They are getting this information just now so why can't the find any more debris?
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JonathanRP
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 7:08 am

alberchico wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
I can't believe this does not have more posts. I guess many people have MH370itis.


There have been several people clogging these threads with utter garbage and that is probably what drove people away.

I can't say their names but we all know who they are....


I was very reluctant to post this just because of the huge amount of MH370 posts that seem to get out of hand or based on sensationalist media or non-expert opinion/conspiracies.

The BBC is regarded as somewhat impartial and reputable, and as it was referring to an official investigators' report, I thought it would be okay to post and discuss!
 
Alfons
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:02 am

This picture is being shown lately on many news pages in relation to the new report:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/as ... ge-169.jpg

So I can't tell if it's only a best guess simulation, or coming from real data. If real data, and what we see here are x,y,z numbers, shouldn't the coordinates be inside the same (db) table? Can't believe in aeronautics that some hardware would stream x,y,z but no long,lats.

Alfons
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:06 am

alberchico wrote:
The one thing I don't get is if Australia decides to stop the search on the grounds of cost shouldn't the Malaysians pick up the tab ?

After all it was a plane belonging to their national carrier.


After a certain point all that we're going to get is marginal returns. And especially if the insurers decide to pay up there's no point in continuing. Let's just accept that it could either be a technical problem, or a crazy pilot problem.

My tax money is better spent elsewhere.
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:31 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
alberchico wrote:
The one thing I don't get is if Australia decides to stop the search on the grounds of cost shouldn't the Malaysians pick up the tab ?

After all it was a plane belonging to their national carrier.


After a certain point all that we're going to get is marginal returns. And especially if the insurers decide to pay up there's no point in continuing. Let's just accept that it could either be a technical problem, or a crazy pilot problem.

My tax money is better spent elsewhere.


The problem is that we don't know, we would like to figure out if something was wrong with the plane itself in order to learn from it. And of course there are the families whom what to know were their loved ones are and what happend to them.

What strikes me is that the horizontal stabilizer isn't found. That thing must be full of air. So perhaps, and speculation here of course, it is still attached to the fuselage? If so then the plane could be relatively in tact. The problem of course is the ocean and the big ereas you are talking about. I think more then twice the area of The Netherlands have been searched and that is only a small piece of ocean, so were to look next? It is a devil's dilemma, for which I am glad I don't have to make that one.
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:48 am

The problem is that the whole search area is based on some predictions like the plane flying a constant heading and speed, which could not have been the case. Remember that the satellite contact circles are to be understand that the plane can be anywhere on the circle. No if you change the heading and the speed of the plane the search area becomes gigantic.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:58 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
Hitting a mountain or hitting water is pretty much the same thing at that speed.


AF447 left quite a bit of evidence.

IMU with all the flotsam now coming up at remote coasts there must have been an initial large and visible floating debris field.
ergo all the searches looked in the wrong location.

... or ::WIDEEYED:: someone seeded the oceans with debris much later.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:42 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:

It's a big, big ocean out there... And nobody really has a clue where it went...not even near. And if it really dove full speed into the ocean, it broke up into so small pieces that there is not much of a "plane" left to find. A few pieces have already floated to distant shores, probably a few others will, too. But don't expect to find bigger pieces than that. Remember Germanwings? No piece was larger than 20x20 cm if I remember correctly. Hitting a mountain or hitting water is pretty much the same thing at that speed.


I get all of that, it's just crazy how a plane like a 777 can just vanish.


No. Crazy is not accepting that it can, and that it has.


Alright, whatever man.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:30 am

Only a few decades ago, any flight that crashed into the ocean, large seas or even large lakes, certain mountainous or barren areas like the arctic regions were never to be found, or able to be recovered. Many times, we are not even sure where they were. In large part it was the lack of info of even knowing they were lost, the inability to locate them, difficult access and lack of flight audio/data recorders or ones of limited points of info or capacity that discouraged any sensible searches. In the more recent decades we have planes like MH370's with more sophisticated recorders to make it more able to determine the reason for their loss if they can be recovered, and in more recent years, like with AF447, were able vs. large difficulties in locating the a/c's remains and 'black boxes'. MH370's likely location is in one of the most isolated areas of the world with almost no air or sea traffic, we have very limited idea of its location.
We have very little physical evidence of MH370, it is difficult to make any sure idea of what happened but it was lost in the South Indian Ocean. I do hope the recorders and other remains of MH370 can be located to give some closure and try to prevent a similar loss in the future.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:36 am

The article may suggest as to what position the flaps were in during impact. However that in itself does not provide any conclusion as to whether a pilot was in command, or if it were a "zombie" plane that ran out of fuel at the end. Either end scenario is still possible, regardless of the flaps position.

I think most people simply want to know what actually happened so that it can be studied and learned from. If it were a mechanical issue, it certainly helps engineers learn and prevent future problems. I am starting to lose hope that anything conclusive will ever be found, but you never know.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:40 am

TheLark wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Can't believe this aircraft is still missing


In 2012, an underwater volcano erupted in the South Pacific, leaving a pumice raft the size of a small country (Israel is often mentioned for comparison). And nobody noticed for a couple of weeks. It's easy to lose the sense of proportion how big and desolate the ocean really is, unless you're out there in a boat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Kerm ... s_eruption

Very interesting, didn't know this. Thanks for sharing, that's what I love about a.net. You still learn something new...
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:21 pm

If you look at the debris simulation map in the BBC news article one thing I have found interesting is that the map suggests four time periods for debris distribution, with the second and third reaching Australia up to a year before any debris would drift toward Madagascar and Africa. Yet (and ISTBC) the only debris found has been on the coast of Madagascar and Africa with none found on the Australian cost. If the plane hit the ocean at speed and broke up, with that debris simulation, I just wonder why none has been found in Australia (of course, much of the coast is remote, but so can the coast of Madagascar be ...)?
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:25 pm

Alfons wrote:
This picture is being shown lately on many news pages in relation to the new report:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/as ... ge-169.jpg

So I can't tell if it's only a best guess simulation, or coming from real data. If real data, and what we see here are x,y,z numbers, shouldn't the coordinates be inside the same (db) table? Can't believe in aeronautics that some hardware would stream x,y,z but no long,lats.


It's all in the report if you read it...

Those were simulations by Boeing based on fuel out at the last ping and flaps in the cruise position (how they determined that was also described in detail in the report). The different paths are the result of small variations occurring during the simulation. They found that in some cases it could travel quite a bit further and in much wilder directions than initially assumed.

What's also interesting is the section on floating debris simulation... with the bits turning up where they are it shows that the impact site is likely quite a bit to north-east of where they were looking (closer to the Australian coast, along the final ping-ring). The tone of the article and report seems to indicate they're considering searching in what should be the right area - good news!
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:31 pm

slinky09 wrote:
If you look at the debris simulation map in the BBC news article one thing I have found interesting is that the map suggests four time periods for debris distribution, with the second and third reaching Australia up to a year before any debris would drift toward Madagascar and Africa. Yet (and ISTBC) the only debris found has been on the coast of Madagascar and Africa with none found on the Australian cost. If the plane hit the ocean at speed and broke up, with that debris simulation, I just wonder why none has been found in Australia (of course, much of the coast is remote, but so can the coast of Madagascar be ...)?


I think it was wrong of the BBC to post that image since, as far as I can tell, it's out of date and superseded by maps in the new report.

Page 18 of the report shows a very different map which indicates that things turning up in Madagascar is in line with the impact being north-east of where they were looking, while the impact would have to be south west of the searched area for things to turn up in Australia.

So I think that BBC map really shouldn't be there!
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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777Jet
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:12 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
alberchico wrote:
The one thing I don't get is if Australia decides to stop the search on the grounds of cost shouldn't the Malaysians pick up the tab ?

After all it was a plane belonging to their national carrier.


After a certain point all that we're going to get is marginal returns. And especially if the insurers decide to pay up there's no point in continuing. Let's just accept that it could either be a technical problem, or a crazy pilot problem.

My tax money is better spent elsewhere.


As is mine, especially since:

1) The plane being searched for is a Malaysian aircraft - not an Australian aircraft.

2) Any Search and *Rescue* responsibilities Australia had ended after the plane was officially declared lost and the Search and *Rescue* phase officially ended (despite it realistically ending much sooner). Australia is not responsible for any search and recovery costs.

I would like to see Australia stop contributing any funding towards this search.

It was a Malaysian plane and Malaysia should foot 100% of the costs. Australia has exceeded any expectations and responsibilities. China also should not be funding this but it is understandable that they do given that Malaysia is cheap, most of the pax where Chinese, and China has very deep pockets.
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:19 am

seahawk wrote:
The problem is that the whole search area is based on some predictions like the plane flying a constant heading and speed, which could not have been the case.
Why do you say that? From the location of the last ping ring it can be seen that 9MMRO used its fuel efficiently; we know that because it wouldn't have gone as far as it did if it had been varying its flight path after turning south. It's a certainty that it flew a constant heading and speed, we just don't know exactly what that heading or what that speed was.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:43 am

777Jet wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
alberchico wrote:
The one thing I don't get is if Australia decides to stop the search on the grounds of cost shouldn't the Malaysians pick up the tab ?

After all it was a plane belonging to their national carrier.


After a certain point all that we're going to get is marginal returns. And especially if the insurers decide to pay up there's no point in continuing. Let's just accept that it could either be a technical problem, or a crazy pilot problem.

My tax money is better spent elsewhere.


As is mine, especially since:

1) The plane being searched for is a Malaysian aircraft - not an Australian aircraft.

2) Any Search and *Rescue* responsibilities Australia had ended after the plane was officially declared lost and the Search and *Rescue* phase officially ended (despite it realistically ending much sooner). Australia is not responsible for any search and recovery costs.

I would like to see Australia stop contributing any funding towards this search.

It was a Malaysian plane and Malaysia should foot 100% of the costs. Australia has exceeded any expectations and responsibilities. China also should not be funding this but it is understandable that they do given that Malaysia is cheap, most of the pax where Chinese, and China has very deep pockets.


You keep forgetting that Australia has bilateral agreements to assist any search & recovery efforts, that the Australian government had volunteered to shoulder some of the costs & that if god forbid a QF plane goes down in the sea, the country whose territorial borders are part of the area will do the exact same thing.

If Malaysia is as cheap as you're implying the search would have been stopped at the end of December 2014.
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:15 am

salttee wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The problem is that the whole search area is based on some predictions like the plane flying a constant heading and speed, which could not have been the case.
Why do you say that? From the location of the last ping ring it can be seen that 9MMRO used its fuel efficiently; we know that because it wouldn't have gone as far as it did if it had been varying its flight path after turning south. It's a certainty that it flew a constant heading and speed, we just don't know exactly what that heading or what that speed was.


You can only see fuel efficiency by the time it flew, it however does not mean it flew a constant course. So the distance is quite fixed, the direction is not, so between 2 arcs, there are always 2 possible positions on the later arc.

http://www.seventharc.net/2016/05/03/tr ... ing-mh370/
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:14 am

alberchico wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
I can't believe this does not have more posts. I guess many people have MH370itis.


There have been several people clogging these threads with utter garbage and that is probably what drove people away.


That and the fact that every thread, regardless of what "new evidence" is presented, immediately veers into the exact same discussion as every other thread. It's already happened here. We don't need to rehash the same stuff from every other thread about this crash. It would actually be nice to discuss the new stuff, but it doesn't seem like anybody wants to do that.
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777Jet
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 11:29 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
You keep forgetting that Australia has bilateral agreements to assist any search & recovery efforts, that the Australian government had volunteered to shoulder some of the costs & that if god forbid a QF plane goes down in the sea, the country whose territorial borders are part of the area will do the exact same thing.

If Malaysia is as cheap as you're implying the search would have been stopped at the end of December 2014.


You keep forgetting that Australia's financial responsibilities ended a long time ago. They volunteered to shoulder some of the costs and that is exactly what they have done. Time for Aussie money to stop being wasted looking for Malaysian lost property. If a QF plane goes down in another countries search and rescue zone then I would expect that country to contribute to the search like how Australia has done with MH370 - but not for so long. Australia has exceeded any responsibilities and expectations. It's time for your cheap country to pick up the remainder of the bill. The only reason your government has contributed funding for so long is for face saving / international image reasons.
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 11:42 am

777Jet wrote:
1) The plane being searched for is a Malaysian aircraft - not an Australian aircraft.

2) Any Search and *Rescue* responsibilities Australia had ended after the plane was officially declared lost and the Search and *Rescue* phase officially ended (despite it realistically ending much sooner). Australia is not responsible for any search and recovery costs.


Interesting that Boeing seems to have disassociated itself from this frame completely ( and from the get go).
compare to Airbus involvement during the search for AF447.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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777Jet
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 12:09 pm

WIederling wrote:
777Jet wrote:
1) The plane being searched for is a Malaysian aircraft - not an Australian aircraft.

2) Any Search and *Rescue* responsibilities Australia had ended after the plane was officially declared lost and the Search and *Rescue* phase officially ended (despite it realistically ending much sooner). Australia is not responsible for any search and recovery costs.


Interesting that Boeing seems to have disassociated itself from this frame completely ( and from the get go).
compare to Airbus involvement during the search for AF447.


It's true.
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 12:10 pm

WIederling wrote:
Interesting that Boeing seems to have disassociated itself from this frame completely ( and from the get go).
compare to Airbus involvement during the search for AF447.

I think the situation was different at that time. Remember AF447 had sent several ACARS-Messages before it crashed. At that time it was not unrealistic to assume that something was wrong with the plane...
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:29 pm

N14AZ wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Interesting that Boeing seems to have disassociated itself from this frame completely ( and from the get go).
compare to Airbus involvement during the search for AF447.

I think the situation was different at that time. Remember AF447 had sent several ACARS-Messages before it crashed. At that time it was not unrealistic to assume that something was wrong with the plane...


So... we're assuming *nothing* was wrong with the aircraft for MH370?
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N14AZ
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:36 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Interesting that Boeing seems to have disassociated itself from this frame completely ( and from the get go).
compare to Airbus involvement during the search for AF447.

I think the situation was different at that time. Remember AF447 had sent several ACARS-Messages before it crashed. At that time it was not unrealistic to assume that something was wrong with the plane...


So... we're assuming *nothing* was wrong with the aircraft for MH370?

Did I say this? I don't think so. Nothing can be ruled out right now with such limited information.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:52 pm

777Jet wrote:
1) The plane being searched for is a Malaysian aircraft - not an Australian aircraft.

2) Any Search and *Rescue* responsibilities Australia had ended after the plane was officially declared lost and the Search and *Rescue* phase officially ended (despite it realistically ending much sooner). Australia is not responsible for any search and recovery costs.


You know what, in deference to spacecadet & the rest, I won't be engaging you any longer since it's not going to be constructive.

But I'll say this - your obsession with MH370 & badmouthing MH & Malaysia at every turn is bordering on the Michael Shrimpton level.

Seriously, let it go...
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salttee
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 2:04 pm

seahawk wrote:
You can only see fuel efficiency by the time it flew, it however does not mean it flew a constant course. So the distance is quite fixed, the direction is not, so between 2 arcs, there are always 2 possible positions on the later arc.
http://www.seventharc.net/2016/05/03/tr ... ing-mh370/

If you're going to lean on Michael Chillit to explain anything about MH-370, you're going to remain in perpetual fog. There is no need to confuse the interpretation of the BTO data as he does, and it makes no sense to lump the whole flight together into one complex maze as he does for his readers.

We know exactly (+/- 20nm) where 9MMRO was at 18:28 and from distance traveled vs time from IGARI we know it was moving at cruise speed (average speed from IGARI to the 18:28 ring was about 474kts and it fits in several ways to assume that the last part of that leg (vicinity of Pinang to vicinity of MEKAR) was at higher GS than the earlier part of the leg. Thus, taking into account the 777's performance envelope we have to assume that it was making around 496kts as it traveled from the 18:28 ring location to POVUS where it turned south; we have to assume that it passed through POVUS because we know it did not enter Indonesian airspace, and it could not have gone much further west and still gotten to the later ping ring latitudes within a 777's performance abilities.

So we have a known time and place for basing the calculations for the southern journey: POVUS at 18:36. From there it is a simple task to draw a series of potential flight paths to the later ping rings using various groundspeeds. What we learn from this exercise is: lower speeds place the flight path further east and higher assumed flight speeds would mean that the flight heading brought it more to the west.

What is left is the issue of whether the aircraft made any turns in its journey south. If you look at a chart for the area being discussed you'll notice that it is absolute wilderness; assuming that the flight stayed clear of Indonesian airspace, which it did, there are no landmarks or points of interest from the vicinity of POVUS to the 0:19 ping ring: it is all open ocean. Making turns there would have been pointless. There are no reasons to lead one to assume any turns on the southern leg.
 
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:21 pm

As long as you can not rule out that it was under human control, course changes are as likely as they are unlikely. The whole flightpath was "pointless".
 
salttee
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:54 pm

seahawk wrote:
As long as you can not rule out that it was under human control, course changes are as likely as they are unlikely. The whole flightpath was "pointless".
That is simply not true. A 777 is steered by the Autopilot Flight Director System, it is not steered like a go-cart.

The flight path may have been pointless to you, but I assure you that it wasn't pointless to the person who plugged the heading, course or waypoint used to direct the flight path. Whoever programmed in the flight path for 9MMRO after IGARI was a very competent 777 pilot.
 
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777Jet
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:49 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
You know what, in deference to spacecadet & the rest, I won't be engaging you any longer since it's not going to be constructive.

But I'll say this - your obsession with MH370 & badmouthing MH & Malaysia at every turn is bordering on the Michael Shrimpton level.

Seriously, let it go...


Ah yes, make it personal when you have no valid argument.

You have an obsession with blame and responsibility shifting. If you are not already a politician you would fit right in as one, especially as a Malaysian politician.

MH370 is now fully Malaysia's responsibility and should have been for quite some time.
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ptharris
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:26 am

I think Robert Ballard should be sent to go find it. I mean, he found shipwrecks with little to no information. Any information he had, was pretty shady at best.
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AirlineCritic
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sat Nov 05, 2016 7:48 am

JonathanRP wrote:
Here's the new report that they're referring to:
http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5771773/ae ... ov2016.pdf


Thanks for posting this. It was *very* refreshing to read factual, analysis-based report of the things that we know of MH380.

Question. The report seemed to be saying that at least on some part of the final descent, the aircraft downward speed would have been 14600ft/min. See Table 2 on page 9. That is a lot. It would (to me) indicate significant destruction of the plane similar to the Air France plane lost in the Atlantic. I.e., breakup, but not necessarily entirely pulverised. Do we agree?
 
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seahawk
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sat Nov 05, 2016 9:54 am

salttee wrote:
seahawk wrote:
As long as you can not rule out that it was under human control, course changes are as likely as they are unlikely. The whole flightpath was "pointless".
That is simply not true. A 777 is steered by the Autopilot Flight Director System, it is not steered like a go-cart.

The flight path may have been pointless to you, but I assure you that it wasn't pointless to the person who plugged the heading, course or waypoint used to direct the flight path. Whoever programmed in the flight path for 9MMRO after IGARI was a very competent 777 pilot.


Still it does not rule out course changes being programmed into the course. In fact if the aim is to make the plane disappear adding course changes makes it harder to find the plane.
 
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Groover158
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sat Nov 05, 2016 10:51 am

I'm fail to see why this thread would be titled BBC: "flaps were in cruise position when it hit" and not ATSB:"flaps were in cruise position when it hit". Credit for this finding should be directed at the ATSB whose report methodically steps through its investigation of the debris found, the BBC merely passed on the information.
 
salttee
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:45 pm

seahawk wrote:
Still it does not rule out course changes being programmed into the course. In fact if the aim is to make the plane disappear adding course changes makes it harder to find the plane.


Zaharie wasn't trying to hide the resting place for the wreckage, he was trying to make the airliner with 239 people on board completely disappear into thin air. He would have succeeded in doing that but for the Inmarsat keep alive function which he had no way of knowing about. Once he was in the Southern Ocean every location was equally remote as every other location and he had enough fuel on board to venture 4,000 miles deep into that wilderness.

But if you want to imagine him as a paranoid character looking over his shoulder at every turn be my guest.
 
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seahawk
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:09 pm

I am not saying he did, but I am also not ruling out the option of a course change. If you accept the possibility of a course change the potential crash area becomes huge.
 
DDR
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:26 pm

Is it possible that there could be large sections of the fuselage resting on the ocean floor, or would the plane have been pulverized when it hit the water? I know SR 111 hit the ocean at high speed but there were still large pieces in tact.
 
JonathanRP
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:15 pm

Groover158 wrote:
I'm fail to see why this thread would be titled BBC: "flaps were in cruise position when it hit" and not ATSB:"flaps were in cruise position when it hit". Credit for this finding should be directed at the ATSB whose report methodically steps through its investigation of the debris found, the BBC merely passed on the information.


My apologies, I did think about this after - my reasoning for mentioning the BBC was to add some sort of recognisable and reputable name to the thread title, so that people would actually glance at it and see the proper ATSB report which I linked to.

Considering the huge amount of conspiracy and speculation, I felt it pertinent to ensure people didn't blow it off as another Daily Mail, Fox News etc rubbish as it was quite an important, new report. And furthermore, I felt people might not recognise the ATSB acronym - I get this is an aviation forum, but there a lot of less hardcore avgeeks (such as myself) or those who might not be so intently following the case on MH370, that would still be interested in this new information!
 
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777Jet
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Re: BBC: MH370 "flaps were in "cruise" position when it hit..."

Sun Nov 06, 2016 12:54 am

DDR wrote:
Is it possible that there could be large sections of the fuselage resting on the ocean floor,


Depends on how it hit. Velocity, speed, angle...

DDR wrote:
, or would the plane have been pulverized when it hit the water?


Most of it would have been pulverized if the ending was uncontrolled, especially if it was in a dive at the moment of impact, but, again, it depends on exactly on how it hit. The strong engine cores and landing gear could remain in a large piece regardless. Parts of the plane could have broken off if it was in a high speed dive.

DDR wrote:
I know SR 111 hit the ocean at high speed but there were still large pieces in tact.


At least with SR111 they knew were to look and began to find the floating debris as soon as the SAR vessels arrived in the area. With MH370, the wrong area, an area thousands of KMs away, was being searched to begin with. It took over two weeks for the first aircraft to visually search parts of the SIO, even longer for the surface vessels to arrive. And then, they still didn't know where to search. They still don't know.
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