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MoKa777
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Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 7:07 am

Hi, I apologise if this is a dumb question or if it has been discussed before, if so, please direct me to that thread and delete this one.

Why did LH order the B747-8I?

From what I know, the order for 20 was placed toward the end of 2006. I assume they ordered it as replacements for the older B747-400s they had in fleet. However, the B77W was an aircraft that was freely available, likely cheaper, better than spec and can be configured to a similar capacity as the B747-400.

If anyone can make aircraft work that no-one else can, it's LH... but still, maximising the potential returns on fleet decisions should be of paramount importance. The A340-600 ended up being less than it could have been and this was only exemplified after the B77W EIS. The B747-8I order was made after this became clear so what made them move ahead with it anyway?

To top it all off, the B747-8I was late and came in below spec...

From what I remember, LH always loved their B747s and were quite vocal about wanting a newer version than the -400. So, were LH just honoring their word and commitment while knowing that better options were available?
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NH203
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 7:13 am

We don't know that 77W would have been cheaper in the first place. It's generally said that LH got one hell of a deal for the 748 in the first place. Plus, when the first were ready to be delivered but didnt met the targets in terms of fuel burn LH refused to take them for quite some time. They eventually took them but I think it's fair to say they got a further discount for that.

It's also not correct that the 77W can be configured to a similar capacity than the 748 in the specific case of LH. As LH has a large J cabin, they can fit quite some seats more in the 748 (a higher seat count on the 77W can only be achieved through 10 abreast and a large Y class making maximum use of the 10 abreast seating).
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 7:37 am

NH203 wrote:
We don't know that 77W would have been cheaper in the first place. It's generally said that LH got one hell of a deal for the 748 in the first place. Plus, when the first were ready to be delivered but didnt met the targets in terms of fuel burn LH refused to take them for quite some time. They eventually took them but I think it's fair to say they got a further discount for that.

It's also not correct that the 77W can be configured to a similar capacity than the 748 in the specific case of LH. As LH has a large J cabin, they can fit quite some seats more in the 748 (a higher seat count on the 77W can only be achieved through 10 abreast and a large Y class making maximum use of the 10 abreast seating).


By cheaper I meant comparing list prices and factoring in equal percentage of discount, the B77W should come in cheaper.

By similar capacity I meant when compared to the B747-400, not B747-8I.

Sorry for not making it clear.
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columba
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 7:45 am

The 747-8I has the advantage that it shares a lot of commonality with the -430s in LH´s fleet. Pilots can fly both types. The 77W would have been an orphan in LH´s fleet. LH has dismissed the 77W once before when they opted for more A346s. If they had ordered the 77W back then I believe they would have ordered more to replace the 747-400.
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 7:48 am

columba wrote:
The 77W would have been an orphan in LH´s fleet.

Not really, as the engine and general frame exist in their 77F fleet.
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:09 am

columba wrote:
The 747-8I has the advantage that it shares a lot of commonality with the -430s in LH´s fleet. Pilots can fly both types. The 77W would have been an orphan in LH´s fleet. LH has dismissed the 77W once before when they opted for more A346s. If they had ordered the 77W back then I believe they would have ordered more to replace the 747-400.


I don't know if it would have been an oddball. I once heard, don't know if it was BA CEO or someone else, that in order to avoid having an orphan fleet of a certain type, you need a minimum of either 12 or 17 frames of said type. LH would have ordered 20.

Also, from a technical and mechanical point of view, LH Technik is probably the most qualified maintenance service provider out there and probably maintain other airlines B77W fleets.
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BlueberryWheats
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:14 am

LAX772LR wrote:
columba wrote:
The 77W would have been an orphan in LH´s fleet.

Not really, as the engine and general frame exist in their 77F fleet.


Although, the 748 order was around 2006 (?) before the 777F order around 2011. So yes, if they ordered the 777W instead of the 748 it would have been an orphan in the fleet at the time.
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WIederling
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:38 am

LAX772LR wrote:
columba wrote:
The 77W would have been an orphan in LH´s fleet.

Not really, as the engine and general frame exist in their 77F fleet.


A buquet of reasons probably:
They like 4 holers.
They have a bunch of Hot n High destinations.
They absolutely like to have their fleet granularity optimized.
( no primitive one type fits all thinking. )
As launch customer they had quite a bit of influence on details.
As launch customer pricing was significantly lower.

Downside:
Boeing botched their side of the equation.

That IMU caused the conversion of the remaining 748 options to 779X orders.
( all things considered they probably will pay less for their 777X purchase than for the A350s on order.)

ot: wondering why 777X : 35 and _no options_ versus A359 : 25 + 30 options ?
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:50 am

WIederling wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
columba wrote:
The 77W would have been an orphan in LH´s fleet.

Not really, as the engine and general frame exist in their 77F fleet.


A buquet of reasons probably:
They like 4 holers.
They have a bunch of Hot n High destinations.
They absolutely like to have their fleet granularity optimized.
( no primitive one type fits all thinking. )
As launch customer they had quite a bit of influence on details.
As launch customer pricing was significantly lower.

Downside:
Boeing botched their side of the equation.

That IMU caused the conversion of the remaining 748 options to 779X orders.
( all things considered they probably will pay less for their 777X purchase than for the A350s on order.)

ot: wondering why 777X : 35 and _no options_ versus A359 : 25 + 30 options ?


Didn't they have 20 options and 14 purchase right on the 748I? Which were changed to 34 firm 779 orders? Interestingly LH cancelled 3 A380's and parked some 346's plus the 1 748I ntu. The A350's I presume were a new order not converted from anything? And replace the remaining A343's? And expansion?
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:02 am

WIederling wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
columba wrote:
The 77W would have been an orphan in LH´s fleet.

Not really, as the engine and general frame exist in their 77F fleet.


A buquet of reasons probably:
They like 4 holers.
They have a bunch of Hot n High destinations.
They absolutely like to have their fleet granularity optimized.
( no primitive one type fits all thinking. )
As launch customer they had quite a bit of influence on details.
As launch customer pricing was significantly lower.

Downside:
Boeing botched their side of the equation.

That IMU caused the conversion of the remaining 748 options to 779X orders.
( all things considered they probably will pay less for their 777X purchase than for the A350s on order.)

ot: wondering why 777X : 35 and _no options_ versus A359 : 25 + 30 options ?


Understandable but...
Liking 4 holers is a preference and does not necessarily translate to a good business decision.
They had -400s and A340-600s that are capable and young enough to see to any Hot and High destinations.
Optimising fleet composition to fit destinations makes sense, though, and could be a possible reason for the -8I.
Influence and price are also very good points.

About the number of B779 and A359 orders and options,

Looking at their current fleet we have:
19 A333
18 A343
24 A346
61 and 55 orders and options for the A359 (I feel that some of those options will be firmed as A35J to replace A346), OR
42 and 55 orders and options for the A359 if the A333 will be replaced with something else, this option allows decent number of frames for expansion.

13 B744
19 B748
32 and 34 orders for the B779

So 5 sub-types of 2 types (I am combining the A333 and A340 due to commonality) can be neatly replaced with 2/3 sub-types of 2 types.
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WIederling
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:16 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Didn't they have 20 options and 14 purchase right on the 748I? Which were changed to 34 firm 779 orders? Interestingly LH cancelled 3 A380's and parked some 346's plus the 1 748I ntu. The A350's I presume were a new order not converted from anything? And replace the remaining A343's? And expansion?


Maybe a bit of "conversion and Airbus don't cry now baby!" folded in from A380 to A350 ?

replace 343? probably with a bit of capacity mark up.
LH loves their frames to death. ... and they afaics have achieved that on the A343.
( and they seem to have enough financial power combined with sane shareholders to
allow buying bargains in market lulls.)

note 777X deliveries lag the A350 availability by ~5 years. much water down some German rivers .. :-)
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JeremyB
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:18 am

MoKa777 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Not really, as the engine and general frame exist in their 77F fleet.


A buquet of reasons probably:
They like 4 holers.
They have a bunch of Hot n High destinations.
They absolutely like to have their fleet granularity optimized.
( no primitive one type fits all thinking. )
As launch customer they had quite a bit of influence on details.
As launch customer pricing was significantly lower.

Downside:
Boeing botched their side of the equation.

That IMU caused the conversion of the remaining 748 options to 779X orders.
( all things considered they probably will pay less for their 777X purchase than for the A350s on order.)

ot: wondering why 777X : 35 and _no options_ versus A359 : 25 + 30 options ?


Understandable but...
Liking 4 holers is a preference and does not necessarily translate to a good business decision.
They had -400s and A340-600s that are capable and young enough to see to any Hot and High destinations.
Optimising fleet composition to fit destinations makes sense, though, and could be a possible reason for the -8I.
Influence and price are also very good points.

About the number of B779 and A359 orders and options,

Looking at their current fleet we have:
19 A333
18 A343
24 A346
61 and 55 orders and options for the A359 (I feel that some of those options will be firmed as A35J to replace A346), OR
42 and 55 orders and options for the A359 if the A333 will be replaced with something else, this option allows decent number of frames for expansion.

13 B744
19 B748
32 and 34 orders for the B779

So 5 sub-types of 2 types (I am combining the A333 and A340 due to commonality) can be neatly replaced with 2/3 sub-types of 2 types.


I thought the 777-9 was to replace the Boeing 747-400 and the Airbus A340-600? I don't think they will replace the 747-8 this soon, remember it's LH, they fly their planes until they are ready for the scrapers.
 
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:40 am

JeremyB wrote:
I thought the 777-9 was to replace the Boeing 747-400 and the Airbus A340-600? I don't think they will replace the 747-8 this soon, remember it's LH, they fly their planes until they are ready for the scrapers.


He.

We were talking about the options / orders morphing ( here 748 options converted to 779X orders)
not replacement of types in use.
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JeremyB
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:50 am

WIederling wrote:
JeremyB wrote:
I thought the 777-9 was to replace the Boeing 747-400 and the Airbus A340-600? I don't think they will replace the 747-8 this soon, remember it's LH, they fly their planes until they are ready for the scrapers.


He.

We were talking about the options / orders morphing ( here 748 options converted to 779X orders)
not replacement of types in use.


Ahh oke oke sorry I misunderstood it :oops:
 
steman
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:14 am

[/quote] ot: wondering why 777X : 35 and _no options_ versus A359 : 25 + 30 options ?[/quote]

If I´m not wrong, I think it´s 20 firm order for the 777-9X with 14 more options and 25 firm orders for the A350-900 with 15 more options.
Boeing shows only 20 777X ordered by LH.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:38 am

To get back at the original Question, Lufthansa was as an airline a prime mover behind the 747-8i. They were launch customers. I assume without the Lufthansa order the 747-8i would never have been started. Than the 747-8i was delayed, overweight and range limited compared to original specs. So Lufthansa converted their options on the 747-8i to orders for the 777-9.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:54 am

mjoelnir wrote:
To get back at the original Question, Lufthansa was as an airline a prime mover behind the 747-8i. They were launch customers. I assume without the Lufthansa order the 747-8i would never have been started. Than the 747-8i was delayed, overweight and range limited compared to original specs. So Lufthansa converted their options on the 747-8i to orders for the 777-9.


Has the weight been brought down to spec and has the range been brought up to spec?

What is the range at the moment? I believe at one point EK looked at the B748I and wanted it to be able to do DXB-LAX-DXB. Was it ever or is it at least now capable of doing that? (Just curious, I know EK, let alone any other airline, will not order it).
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caetravlr
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:05 am

Am I mistaken in that I remember it being discussed on here somewhere that Lufthansa also got some major concessions on the 747-8i related to the Connexion By Boeing inflight internet not panning out?
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jfk777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:06 am

Lufthansa was the launch customer for the 747-8, several other orders were expected from traditional large 747 operators. Two were BA and JAL , these two never ordered the 748 these two do have large 777 and 787 fleets. Both will be A350-1000 operators, Hoping they will be 777-9 operators.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:38 am

MoKa777 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
To get back at the original Question, Lufthansa was as an airline a prime mover behind the 747-8i. They were launch customers. I assume without the Lufthansa order the 747-8i would never have been started. Than the 747-8i was delayed, overweight and range limited compared to original specs. So Lufthansa converted their options on the 747-8i to orders for the 777-9.


Has the weight been brought down to spec and has the range been brought up to spec?

What is the range at the moment? I believe at one point EK looked at the B748I and wanted it to be able to do DXB-LAX-DXB. Was it ever or is it at least now capable of doing that? (Just curious, I know EK, let alone any other airline, will not order it).

AFAIK know weight has been reduced, but not down to spec. Fuel burn spec has been reached by better than expected engines. Range has been reasonable since the tail tank is enabled. I would say a case of to little to late.
AFAIK has the 3.5 % fuel burn decrease between the first and later delivered 747-8i just brought the bird to specs.
 
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:39 am

MoKa777 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Not really, as the engine and general frame exist in their 77F fleet.

(...)

About the number of B779 and A359 orders and options,

Looking at their current fleet we have:
19 A333
18 A343
24 A346
61 and 55 orders and options for the A359 (I feel that some of those options will be firmed as A35J to replace A346), OR
42 and 55 orders and options for the A359 if the A333 will be replaced with something else, this option allows decent number of frames for expansion.

13 B744
19 B748
32 and 34 orders for the B779

So 5 sub-types of 2 types (I am combining the A333 and A340 due to commonality) can be neatly replaced with 2/3 sub-types of 2 types.


You are missing out the A380s here... ;-)

I speculate the B779 will replace the B744s first, then eventually the B748s.
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Stitch
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:46 am

MoKa777 wrote:
Why did LH order the B747-8I?


LH has always been interested in a larger 747. They pushed Boeing to launch the 747X in 2001 and were involved in the study of the 747 Advanced (which became the 747-8).


ZK-NBT wrote:
Didn't (LH) have 20 options and 14 purchase right on the 748I? Which were changed to 34 firm 779 orders?


LH had 20 orders and 20 purchase rights on the 747-8.


steman wrote:
If I´m not wrong, I think it´s 20 firm order for the 777-9X with 14 more options.


LH themselves have said they "ordered" 34 777-9s and have posted future fleet documents showing 34 777-9s, but they have only formally confirmed 20 (most likely via a transfer of their 20 747-8 purchase rights) so the other 14 officially remain a commitment (though it appears LH intends to confirm them as orders at some future date).

MoKa777 wrote:
Has the weight been brought down to spec and has the range been brought up to spec?


The plane met payload-range spec from Day One thanks to the Operating Weight boost. Fuel burn was still below spec due to the SFC miss of the GEnx2B-67. I believe the engines are still around 1% off spec, but by 2013 Boeing had brought the OEW to within the original spec.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:48 am

mjoelnir wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
To get back at the original Question, Lufthansa was as an airline a prime mover behind the 747-8i. They were launch customers. I assume without the Lufthansa order the 747-8i would never have been started. Than the 747-8i was delayed, overweight and range limited compared to original specs. So Lufthansa converted their options on the 747-8i to orders for the 777-9.


Has the weight been brought down to spec and has the range been brought up to spec?

What is the range at the moment? I believe at one point EK looked at the B748I and wanted it to be able to do DXB-LAX-DXB. Was it ever or is it at least now capable of doing that? (Just curious, I know EK, let alone any other airline, will not order it).

AFAIK know weight has been reduced, but not down to spec. Fuel burn spec has been reached by better than expected engines. Range has been reasonable since the tail tank is enabled. I would say a case of to little to late.
AFAIK has the 3.5 % fuel burn decrease between the first and later delivered 747-8i just brought the bird to specs.


Interesting...

I agree, too little too late.
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:53 am

hilram wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
(...)

About the number of B779 and A359 orders and options,

Looking at their current fleet we have:
19 A333
18 A343
24 A346
61 and 55 orders and options for the A359 (I feel that some of those options will be firmed as A35J to replace A346), OR
42 and 55 orders and options for the A359 if the A333 will be replaced with something else, this option allows decent number of frames for expansion.

13 B744
19 B748
32 and 34 orders for the B779

So 5 sub-types of 2 types (I am combining the A333 and A340 due to commonality) can be neatly replaced with 2/3 sub-types of 2 types.


You are missing out the A380s here... ;-)

I speculate the B779 will replace the B744s first, then eventually the B748s.


Nope, did not forget about the A380. They seem to be the youngest aircraft in the fleet that are operating at or better than spec and are a size that - if you fill it - cannot be replaced by anything else.

The rest are old enough to start considering replacement or
- in the case of the A333 will eventually be replaced and their existing orders are for aircraft that would replace them effectively, like I said evetually down the road.
- in the case of the B748, an aircraft that is not operating as promised and a far more efficient alternative will soon be available in the form of the B779. I know LH flies their planes to death but I think the B748 will be the exception.
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:00 pm

The plane met payload-range spec from Day One thanks to the Operating Weight boost. Fuel burn was still below spec due to the SFC miss of the GEnx2B-67. I believe the engines are still around 1% off spec, but by 2013 Boeing had brought the OEW to within the original spec.


So, would it be able to fly a route like DXB-LAX-DXB or HKG-JFK-HKG unrestricted? Just curious, I am trying to understand the realistic capabilities of this aircraft. The current longest is FRA-EZE, can it do better than that with a full payload?
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Dutchy
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:12 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
hilram wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:

- in the case of the B748, an aircraft that is not operating as promised and a far more efficient alternative will soon be available in the form of the B779. I know LH flies their planes to death but I think the B748 will be the exception.


The natural corse of action would have been to trade the B748 in with Boeing when ordering the B779, as far as I know, they didn't. So they have to sell those on the open marked, not the best position to be in with such a orphan.
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Noshow
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:15 pm

They will use them for a while. No problem they will pay for themselves. Plus LH have a huge 747-400 fleet and all the pilots, parts and infrastructure.
If they sell their 747-8I one far away day those might be well saught freighter conversion candidates.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:21 pm

So maybe they do still have a long-term plan for them...

Based on current orders, the widebody fleet could look like this in future (?)
19 A333
25 A359 (with options for many more)
14 A388
19 B748
34 B779

That sure is a lot of big(ger) birds... not complaining though.
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tommy1808
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:27 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
By cheaper I meant comparing list prices and factoring in equal percentage of discount, the B77W should come in cheaper.


well, of course, if you define your case the right way, you will always get the result you want. There will not have been equal discounts. The 77W was selling like hot cakes and the 747 didn´t sell at all plus LH was Lunch customer. I wouldn´t be surprised if they only paid half of the "real" 77W price at the time for their order.

It is also very possible that LH has enough destinations for 19 748i, where it simply performs better in whatever metric LH likes to use than any other aircraft type in the fleet, including the A380 and the (non fleet) 77W. After all they pretty much take each bird as a fleet on its own, the latest 748 deliveries are flying the longest 748 routes and they even switch engines between aircraft when the chance come up to get the best performing engines on those aircraft that can benefit most from it.

Basically the answer to the TS question it easy: Because it was the best acquisition they could make at the time.

best regards
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:44 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
By cheaper I meant comparing list prices and factoring in equal percentage of discount, the B77W should come in cheaper.


well, of course, if you define your case the right way, you will always get the result you want. There will not have been equal discounts. The 77W was selling like hot cakes and the 747 didn´t sell at all plus LH was Lunch customer. I wouldn´t be surprised if they only paid half of the "real" 77W price at the time for their order.

It is also very possible that LH has enough destinations for 19 748i, where it simply performs better in whatever metric LH likes to use than any other aircraft type in the fleet, including the A380 and the (non fleet) 77W. After all they pretty much take each bird as a fleet on its own, the latest 748 deliveries are flying the longest 748 routes and they even switch engines between aircraft when the chance come up to get the best performing engines on those aircraft that can benefit most from it.

Basically the answer to the TS question it easy: Because it was the best acquisition they could make at the time.

best regards
Thomas


Yes, obviously it was the best acquisition they could make at the time. That is why they made it.

My question is why did they buy this particular aircraft. Maybe I should have phrased my question differently to reflect this. What about it made it the best acquisition they could have made at the time?

Why/How did LH decide that the B747-8I was the best aircraft for them to order at the time and what about it made it better than any other aircraft available at the time (such as the B77W)?
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CARST
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:11 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
My question is why did they buy this particular aircraft. Maybe I should have phrased my question differently to reflect this. What about it made it the best acquisition they could have made at the time?

Why/How did LH decide that the B747-8I was the best aircraft for them to order at the time and what about it made it better than any other aircraft available at the time (such as the B77W)?



The answer is quiete simple I guess. Look back at 2006. The A340-600s were really young back then, a lot of 747-400s were late 90s models, too, and the A380 was about to join the fleet. LH searched for an aicraft in the size category exactly between the A340-600 and the A380-800. They did not search just for the random (most efficient) VLA. They did search for the aircraft inbetween the two mentioned sizes. And the 77W would have been way to close to the A346 at that time. The 779 wasn't even on the drawing board back then.

So LHs future fleet at the time looked like this:
A333
A346
B744
B748
A388


Now ten years later we have the 779 available, an aircraft a good chunk larger than the A346 (which will get replaced by the A359), but still not close to the A388. And it is also way more efficient than the B748. So they ordered the 779 for that mid-size-VLA instead of making use of the options on the 748.

New future fleet:
A359
B779
B748
A388
 
WIederling
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:25 pm

[quote="Dutchy"}So they have to sell those on the open marked, not the best position to be in with such a orphan.[/quote]

LH usually does not sell their (PAX) planes. They are carefully kept in top condition until that turns too expensive.
Then they are sent to the desert. Usually "well done" on hours and cycles.
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Noshow
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 2:00 pm

They are just selling their last 737-300s. And not for parting them out.
 
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SFOA380
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 2:02 pm

WIederling wrote:
[quote="Dutchy"}So they have to sell those on the open marked, not the best position to be in with such a orphan.


LH usually does not sell their (PAX) planes. They are carefully kept in top condition until that turns too expensive.
Then they are sent to the desert. Usually "well done" on hours and cycles.[/quote]

LH indeed does a remarkable job keeping their fleet feeling young. Many other airlines have beautifully maintained fleets but most of those don't get the years of service; LH frames get a workout over their lifespan.
 
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gennadius
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:32 pm

Stitch wrote:

MoKa777 wrote:
Has the weight been brought down to spec and has the range been brought up to spec?


The plane met payload-range spec from Day One thanks to the Operating Weight boost. Fuel burn was still below spec due to the SFC miss of the GEnx2B-67. I believe the engines are still around 1% off spec, but by 2013 Boeing had brought the OEW to within the original spec.


The engines missed by 2.6% and the PIP reclaimed 1.8%, so they are indeed still off by just under 1%. The overall fuel efficiency of the frame however, as of late 2013, had been improved by an additional 1.7% since the first frames rolled off the line, for a total gain of 3.5% including the PIP.

One of the biggest elements that Boeing was originally trying to target was getting the range back up to the 8200nm that the original variant was targeting, before Lufthansa got Boeing to stretch it a bit more than originally planned. The increase in MTOW as well as the reduction in OEW was to get some of that back, but in order to get all the way up to that number, they were going to have to do a bit more. Some of these items were contained in the originally named "Project Ozark", some of which have since been implemented in production (typically more weight saving measures), and others were awaiting a customer backing for Boeing to proceed. There were additional changes that Boeing identified in 2014 to get all the way to the range desired, one of the main elements being the strengthening of the MLGs, but these also seemed to be tied to a few Intercontinental sales campaigns that apparently didn't pan out.

Perhaps with the latest UPS order, and if some of the other potential orders firm up, some of those improvements may yet see the light of day.
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blacksoviet
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:48 pm

If LH had ordered 77W with 10 abreast Y, it would have ruined their reputation. LH is a premium airline. They also serve many high yield business destinations. The 744 and 748 allow for larger, more luxurious first class and business class cabins throughout the aircraft, as well as wider seats in Y.

The money made from selling more F and J tickets makes up for the money lost by operating a four-engine aircraft and in the end they probably end up making more money than they would ever make with only 77Ws and A380s.
Last edited by blacksoviet on Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:55 pm

Stitch wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
Why did LH order the B747-8I?


LH has always been interested in a larger 747. They pushed Boeing to launch the 747X in 2001 and were involved in the study of the 747 Advanced (which became the 747-8).


ZK-NBT wrote:
Didn't (LH) have 20 options and 14 purchase right on the 748I? Which were changed to 34 firm 779 orders?


LH had 20 orders and 20 purchase rights on the 747-8.


steman wrote:
If I´m not wrong, I think it´s 20 firm order for the 777-9X with 14 more options.


LH themselves have said they "ordered" 34 777-9s and have posted future fleet documents showing 34 777-9s, but they have only formally confirmed 20 (most likely via a transfer of their 20 747-8 purchase rights) so the other 14 officially remain a commitment (though it appears LH intends to confirm them as orders at some future date).

MoKa777 wrote:
Has the weight been brought down to spec and has the range been brought up to spec?


The plane met payload-range spec from Day One thanks to the Operating Weight boost. Fuel burn was still below spec due to the SFC miss of the GEnx2B-67. I believe the engines are still around 1% off spec, but by 2013 Boeing had brought the OEW to within the original spec.


The 747-8i did NOT meat range specs. The tail tank had to be disabled and the 747-8i was fuel volume restricted. That was rectified at a later date. The MEW is down, but still missing original specs.
Even with enabled tail tank now the 747-8i falls short of the original expected range.
Last edited by mjoelnir on Thu Nov 03, 2016 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 5:04 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
By cheaper I meant comparing list prices and factoring in equal percentage of discount, the B77W should come in cheaper.


I can see the logic in that, but in reality there's very little correlation between 'list prices' and the actual price offered. The 77W may be cheaper on paper, but since it was an incredibly sought after article at the time LH placed the order, discounts would have been lower. On the other hand, Boeing was very keen on shifting 748i's and is likely to have offered these frames cheaper than an equivalent number of 77Ws.

There is only one function of 'list prices' for both OEMs: It allows them to issue a press statement proudly proclaiming they've sold umpteen billions worth of aircraft 'at list prices'. This makes the headless chickens at stock exchanges happy and makes for nice headlines. And, that's about it.

To put it in perspective: Quite a few years ago Kalitta Air Cargo picked up a brand new 747-400ERF from the desert, where it had been parked as a white tail. The 'list price' at the time was around 275M, Connie paid around 75M for the frame + another couple of million to get it operational.
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fortytwoeyes
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 5:14 pm

Noshow wrote:
They will use them for a while. No problem they will pay for themselves. Plus LH have a huge 747-400 fleet and all the pilots, parts and infrastructure.
If they sell their 747-8I one far away day those might be well saught freighter conversion candidates.


I doubt there will be enough 747-8I built to make a freighter conversion worthwhile.
 
douglasyxz
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:11 pm

I remember that the deal for the 748 was partially related to a compensation for the Boeing Connexion issue. Instead of sending a credit note to LH, Boeing made an offer LH could not refuse.

It is also true what CARST is mentioning: the 748 fits nicely inbetween the A346 and the A388 in LH's premium-heavy setup.

At the time of decision, it was the right move. And bear in mind, the 779 is still 5 years or so down the road. During the time of 748 EIS and 779 EIS, a lot of passengers can be lost to competitors resp. money wasted by using less suitable aircraft.
 
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IslandRob
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Fri Nov 04, 2016 3:36 am

Dutchy wrote:
The natural corse of action would have been to trade the B748 in with Boeing when ordering the B779, as far as I know, they didn't. So they have to sell those on the open marked, not the best position to be in with such a orphan.

Is there any indication that the 748i's will leave LH's fleet before the A388s (which are themselves proving difficult to sell on the open market)? -ir
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:18 am

The engines missed by 2.6% and the PIP reclaimed 1.8%, so they are indeed still off by just under 1%. The overall fuel efficiency of the frame however, as of late 2013, had been improved by an additional 1.7% since the first frames rolled off the line, for a total gain of 3.5% including the PIP.

One of the biggest elements that Boeing was originally trying to target was getting the range back up to the 8200nm that the original variant was targeting, before Lufthansa got Boeing to stretch it a bit more than originally planned. The increase in MTOW as well as the reduction in OEW was to get some of that back, but in order to get all the way up to that number, they were going to have to do a bit more. Some of these items were contained in the originally named "Project Ozark", some of which have since been implemented in production (typically more weight saving measures), and others were awaiting a customer backing for Boeing to proceed. There were additional changes that Boeing identified in 2014 to get all the way to the range desired, one of the main elements being the strengthening of the MLGs, but these also seemed to be tied to a few Intercontinental sales campaigns that apparently didn't pan out.

Perhaps with the latest UPS order, and if some of the other potential orders firm up, some of those improvements may yet see the light of day.


Thanks Gennadius for that detailed explanation.

If LH had ordered 77W with 10 abreast Y, it would have ruined their reputation. LH is a premium airline. They also serve many high yield business destinations. The 744 and 748 allow for larger, more luxurious first class and business class cabins throughout the aircraft, as well as wider seats in Y.

The money made from selling more F and J tickets makes up for the money lost by operating a four-engine aircraft and in the end they probably end up making more money than they would ever make with only 77Ws and A380s.


I understand what you are saying about the 10 abreast Y situation and LH being a premium carrier but I think that if LH cared about ruining their premium image they would not have kept the dinosaur J seats they had for so long and then eventually replace it with a hard product that still lags many/most competitors.

From what I have learned over time, it is J that is the most lucrative cabin on an aircraft.

Everyone makes very good points. I realise now the gap that exists the A346 and A388... it would not have been closed with the B77W. something else was needed - enter B748.
Never be proud. Always be grateful.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:06 am

MoKa777 wrote:
I understand what you are saying about the 10 abreast Y situation and LH being a premium carrier


... and there is the little bit of LH having 10 abreast Y on the 747 and it is not that much wider...

but I think that if LH cared about ruining their premium image they would not have kept the dinosaur J seats they had for so long and then eventually replace it with a hard product that still lags many/most competitors.


"BA destroyed the business class" ..... LH had F for that, and pretty much was right, since J is approaching F standards and they had to invent Premium Economy to get the old J back....

Now we wait for the first Airline to offer fully lie flat in PE..... ;-)

replace it with a hard product that still lags many/most competitors


With some premium 5 Star carriers still having 7 abreast J i am not sure those differences are really relevant or some of them would fly plenty of empty J-seats around..

best regards
Thomas
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Dutchy
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:14 am

IslandRob wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
The natural corse of action would have been to trade the B748 in with Boeing when ordering the B779, as far as I know, they didn't. So they have to sell those on the open marked, not the best position to be in with such a orphan.

Is there any indication that the 748i's will leave LH's fleet before the A388s (which are themselves proving difficult to sell on the open market)? -ir


As far as I know, "no", lot of speculation about it, but people in the know, will not tell and people whom tell about it, aren't in the know ;-).

My post was a reaction to another post where this was mentioned. I would say it is a clear indicator that Lufthansa didn't trade them in with the 779 deal. They should have been able to get ride of them then in the most easy and profitable way. So the fact that they didn't, or at least Boeing and Lufthansa didn't announce the deal, is a clear indicator that the marriage between Lufthansa and its Boeing 747-8i intercontinental will last 20 years or so. ;-)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:47 am

With some premium 5 Star carriers still having 7 abreast J i am not sure those differences are really relevant or some of them would fly plenty of empty J-seats around..


I don't really pay much attention to the 5 Star thing, likely just a purchasable gimmick.

That, though, does not change the fact that LH J hard product does lag even their immediate neighbours.

- BA has had full flat for ages, not as good as it could be but still...
- IB is almost there.
- AF and KL are moving toward reverse herringbone J.
- LX has full flat and almost all aisle access on all of their aircraft (granted, they do have a far smaller fleet).
- OS has a similar product to LX.
- Even AZ, AY and SK have upped their J hard product.

But I must say that LH obviously made the right decision for themselves with their J. They want to maintain a significant enough difference between F and J and even though J does not quite match all the latest and greatest around, their network strength and reliability surpass most...
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VC10er
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Sat Nov 05, 2016 9:18 pm

I thought LH has been very happy with the 747-8i? I realize this is an LH & the 747-8i thread, but the few other carriers that have them, curious, did they add the 747-8i for the same reasons as LH?

I know only money counts (I happen to know that painfully well by working for years for a company that ONLY ever talked about money) but I really felt that LH did a great job using the 7478i as bragging rights. Any and every sky warrior I know will knock themselves out to get on an LH 748i. Thank goodness for LH. The pride they take in their fleet is palpable!
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keesje
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:10 pm

I saw a LH 748 at Boston this week. A 3500nm or so TATL from FRA, not a 747 sweetspot it seems.
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PanAm1971
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Sun Nov 06, 2016 12:17 am

Is there any indication LH is unhappy with their 748's? And if so is there any evidence of this?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Sun Nov 06, 2016 2:22 am

PanAm1971 wrote:
Is there any indication LH is unhappy with their 748's? And if so is there any evidence of this?


LH declares to be happy with their 747-8i. But they have refused to take one of the original ordered, over weight, and used their 747-8i options to order 777-9 instead.
At about the same time they reduced their A380 orders from 17 to 14, also while declaring to like them. Perhaps we are simply looking at a change fleet strategy and they are really satisfied with those 747-8i and just do not need more of them.
 
anrec80
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Re: Why did LH order the B747-8I?

Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:43 am

blacksoviet wrote:
If LH had ordered 77W with 10 abreast Y, it would have ruined their reputation. LH is a premium airline. They also serve many high yield business destinations. The 744 and 748 allow for larger, more luxurious first class and business class cabins throughout the aircraft, as well as wider seats in Y.

The money made from selling more F and J tickets makes up for the money lost by operating a four-engine aircraft and in the end they probably end up making more money than they would ever make with only 77Ws and A380s.


I don't know how does LH plan to get to the "premium airline" status. Yes, they don't have 777W in 3-4-3, but their subsidiary Swiss (who apparently also cares about this status) does. And Austrian 777s are also 3-4-3. And - they need to also improve their catering. I fly them 1-2 times a year across the pond in Y. They really need to have 2-3 kinds of famous German beer (as opposed to just Warsteiner), and some more variety in food offerings than their decade-old "chicken or pasta".

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