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TWA772LR
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First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:29 am

The title says it all. We know IR will be the first one to restore nonstop flights between the US and Iran. Who will be next? Who will be the first US airline to return to Iran? Does any other Iranian city besides Tehran have a chance of receiving US service?
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Varsity1
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:32 am

UA would be my guess. I doubt any of them will touch it though.
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rufusmi
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:33 am

Personally I don't see any US airline flying to Tehran. If they can't make money in DXB, AUH, or DOH, especially where they have massive feed potential if they would get over their silly dispute, then how could make money at IKA?
 
alfa164
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:36 am

Varsity1 wrote:
UA would be my guess. I doubt any of them will touch it though.


I don't think you will see any US carrier there for a long time. All the majors have codeshare partners (AA: Qatar, Emirates, and BA; DL: Air France, KLM, even Aeroflot; US: Lufthansa) who either already have flights scheduled or probably will add flights there. There is no reason for US-based carrier to fly their own metal to Iran.
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DFW789ER
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:44 am

I would be quite shocked to see a U.S. airline serve Tehran. Just because sanctions have been lifted doesn't mean all is well. Especially when our president elect has suggested we may just need to shoot and/or bomb if Iran even looks suspicious.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:07 am

Weren't the US3 making money in DXB until Iraq's airspace was declared as unsafe? UA pulled out of their other stations because the government contracts ended.

The hub cities that have the best chance of a n/s IKA flight (EWR/JFK, ORD, IAD, IAH, DFW, ATL, LAX, SFO), none of their great circle routes go over any ISIS-controlled airspace. The only detour they would possibly need to make is to go around eastern Ukraine.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=ewr-ika,+o ... a,+iad-ika
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wenders825
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:26 am

highly doubtful considering none of them even service CAI, which is an even closer market. considering EU airlines are just getting back in there and making money, I think it'll be a wait for US airlines to.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:27 am

And this is all predicated on the current administration's deal being upheld.
As we see in the following thread, that's in no way a guarantee:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1347479
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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787fan8
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:31 am

Very unlikely in my opinion.
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RetiredWeasel
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:54 am

Image
Northwest Flight 41 leaving Tehran on June 19, 2005.

Of course I'm bending the rules here on the topic description, because the crew on this flight had declared an emergency due to an aft cargo compartment fire indication and diverted into Tehran. They were flying from Mumbai to Amsterdam. But they were the first US airliner to land in Tehran since the demise of the Shah in 1979.
 
UA444
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:00 am

Many years. Diplomatic relations beteeen the two countries are still very sour.
 
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KrustyTheKlown
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:23 am

Let's revisit this question in 10 years.
 
alfa164
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:29 am

Varsity1 wrote:
UA would be my guess. I doubt any of them will touch it though.

I doubt than any of the US majors will be interested in fly anytime soon. All of them have codeshare partners (AA: Qauar, Emirates, and maybe BA; DL: AF, KLM, and SU; and UA: LH and TK) who can provide all the connections they need.

And with an unpredictable (should I say erratic) administration soon to come to Washington, there is no reason to risk making plans that might be thwarted on a whim.
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XLA2008
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:59 am

Actually, a little off topic, but do BA, AF etc nightstop their crews in Tehran? Does anyone know if they nightstop!? Or operate it rountrip? I'm actually really interested to know!

And back on topic, despite the fact that it was announced that the embargo was being lifted it seems as though under the new president elect he will try to stop that from going through, from what I've been reading, but who knows!!! Aside from that I HIGHLY doubt you will see the likes of any US carrier operating to Tehran!
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blacksoviet
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 6:43 am

DL could use the 77L to fly non-stop to Tehran from ATL and possibly CVG.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 6:49 am

blacksoviet wrote:
DL could use the 77L to fly non-stop to Tehran from ATL and possibly CVG.

...may as well add DBQ, for all the strategic benefit of either of those two.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mdavies06
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:36 pm

I am not so sure if I share the same pessimism given that (1) all the European major carriers have been rushing to launch IKA in the past 2 year and aren't the Western European countries in the same situation as the US in relation to visa and trade restrictions etc? (2) As of now IR is not in any position to launch US flights, which places an advantage to US carriers (3) Tehran is a safe and civilised city (4) For foreign workers, I don't think crew safety is a issue, at least not above and beyond the difficulties that European carriers face if any. Obviously women are expected to wear headscarves and it is a dry country. I don't know whether US-Iran still has a bilateral which will enable services to be launched...
 
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:55 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
DL could use the 77L to fly non-stop to Tehran from ATL and possibly CVG.

...may as well add DBQ, for all the strategic benefit of either of those two.


You do realize that DL is well under 100 flights a day in CVG these days, right?
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georgiaame
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:04 pm

I think Tower Air would be a great choice.
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AR385
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:06 pm

Limiting this thread to a mere aviation discussion, I do not think that in the medium term there is any revenue for an American carrier to fly to Teheran, much less any other city in Iran. It´s going to take time, assuming things are not modified by the new psychos in the White House for routes between the US and Iran to become significant in revenue. Much travel initially would be VFR, with meager premium revenue and with the competition by the ME3 and Iran Air. No American carrier is going to bother until the passenger mix changes to more premium. That will probably take a few years.
 
ajs123uk
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:16 pm

XLA2008 wrote:
Actually, a little off topic, but do BA, AF etc nightstop their crews in Tehran? Does anyone know if they nightstop!? Or operate it rountrip? I'm actually really interested to know!

And back on topic, despite the fact that it was announced that the embargo was being lifted it seems as though under the new president elect he will try to stop that from going through, from what I've been reading, but who knows!!! Aside from that I HIGHLY doubt you will see the likes of any US carrier operating to Tehran!


Yes Lufthansa, Air France, KLM, BA's crews do nightstop, I've done 2 already and enjoyed the trip
 
303dk
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:35 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
DL could use the 77L to fly non-stop to Tehran from ATL and possibly CVG.


If anyone, it'd be DL from JFK or DTW. But unless there's demand for non-$top up front, they can serve it just fine via CDG (and probably AMS in the future).
 
factsonly
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:31 pm

303dk wrote:
DL from JFK or DTW. they can serve it just fine via CDG (and probably AMS in the future).


AMS-IKA has been available for over 60 years on IR and/or KL.

Currently:
- IR 2x weekly
- KL 4x weekly
 
dlphoenix
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:12 pm

AR385 wrote:
Limiting this thread to a mere aviation discussion, I do not think that in the medium term there is any revenue for an American carrier to fly to Teheran, much less any other city in Iran. It´s going to take time, assuming things are not modified by the new psychos in the White House for routes between the US and Iran to become significant in revenue. Much travel initially would be VFR, with meager premium revenue and with the competition by the ME3 and Iran Air. No American carrier is going to bother until the passenger mix changes to more premium. That will probably take a few years.


I beg to differ.
Boeing is not the only large US corporate that would like to benefit from the (re)opening of a large market. I think there will be significant business traffic as soon as the sanctions are effectively lifted (i.e. when export licenses will be granted in weeks rather years).
I think UA which operates flights to India and TLV from EWR are in the best position to start EWR-IKA. However they have not introduced new TATL destinations in years so I won't be shocked if either DL or even AA jump on the opportunity.

As a side note - IMHO AC will beat all 3 US airlines.

DLP
 
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:41 pm

floridaflyboy wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
DL could use the 77L to fly non-stop to Tehran from ATL and possibly CVG.

...may as well add DBQ, for all the strategic benefit of either of those two.

You do realize that DL is well under 100 flights a day in CVG these days, right?

Why are you quoting me in this?



303dk wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
DL could use the 77L to fly non-stop to Tehran from ATL and possibly CVG.

If anyone, it'd be DL from JFK or DTW.

The latter would be just as pointless as the other two.

AvGeeks need to get past this mistaken notion that DTW has some enormous draw to various regions of the Middle East.
It doesn't. Which is why it barely has any nonstops there, even to the places where it can.

LAX and JFK are by far the primary draws for traffic between Iran and the USA.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
303dk
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:42 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
303dk wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
DL could use the 77L to fly non-stop to Tehran from ATL and possibly CVG.

If anyone, it'd be DL from JFK or DTW.

The latter would be just as pointless as the other two.

AvGeeks need to get past this mistaken notion that DTW has some enormous draw to various regions of the Middle East.
It doesn't. Which is why it barely has any nonstops there, even to the places where it can.

LAX and JFK are by far the primary draws for traffic between Iran and the USA.


I have no notion of anything other than DTW and JFK are DL's two hubs that geographically make sense in terms of total distance and not overflying another DL hub.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:06 pm

303dk wrote:
I have no notion of anything other than DTW and JFK are DL's two hubs that geographically make sense in terms of total distance and not overflying another DL hub.

That's another thing AvGeeks need to get past:
"Not overflying another hub" is a secondary (if not tertiary, or lower) concern to demand.

Airlines will more than happily overfly a hub, if the market's yields (or contracts/efficiencies/etc) generate sufficient demand for it; which many do.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
303dk
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:26 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
303dk wrote:
I have no notion of anything other than DTW and JFK are DL's two hubs that geographically make sense in terms of total distance and not overflying another DL hub.

That's another thing AvGeeks need to get past:
"Not overflying another hub" is a secondary (if not tertiary, or lower) concern to demand.

Airlines will more than happily overfly a hub, if the market's yields (or contracts/efficiencies/etc) generate sufficient demand for it; which many do.


In this particular example, I was referring to the fact that the next nearest hub (ATL) requires the majority of potential connecting traffic to back track. In addition, DL has a fairly straight forward model for the eastern USA: Asia traffic connects at DTW, thin TATL routes connect at JFK. IKA could be either, but ATL-IKA would be totally outside their normal model.
 
DiscoverCSG
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:31 pm

alfa164 wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
UA would be my guess. I doubt any of them will touch it though.


I don't think you will see any US carrier there for a long time. All the majors have codeshare partners (AA: Qatar, Emirates, and BA; DL: Air France, KLM, even Aeroflot; US: Lufthansa) who either already have flights scheduled or probably will add flights there. There is no reason for US-based carrier to fly their own metal to Iran.


Along with another poster, this one states that AA codeshares with Emirates. That is not the case. AA does, however, have a relationship with Etihad Airways.

On a related note, there's no such thing as US anymore. They merged with AA several years back.

UA (United Airlines) does still codeshare with Lufthansa, though.
Last edited by DiscoverCSG on Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SCQ83
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:32 pm

mdavies06 wrote:
(1) all the European major carriers have been rushing to launch IKA in the past 2 year and aren't the Western European countries in the same situation as the US in relation to visa and trade restrictions etc?


You can get Visa on arrival with any European passport except British. The problem comes mainly from the US side since now a visit to Iran will cancel any ESTA which means an European having visited Iran should get an expensive and time consuming Tourist Visa to get into the US.
 
COEWR787
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:03 pm

United apparently does overfly Iran near Meshad on its way to Mumbai from time to time. I have done so twice.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:16 pm

If UA had kept the 767-224ER they could have started EWR-IKA. The 788 is too large for this route.
 
dlphoenix
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:21 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
If UA had kept the 767-224ER they could have started EWR-IKA. The 788 is too large for this route.

This is a long route. Nobody will start it if there is not enough demand to fill at least a 789.
 
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:22 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
If UA had kept the 767-224ER they could have started EWR-IKA. The 788 is too large for this route.

The 788 is much more fuel efficient and has more cargo capacity than the 762. USA-Iran is actually a pretty large market.
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blacksoviet
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:27 pm

dlphoenix wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
If UA had kept the 767-224ER they could have started EWR-IKA. The 788 is too large for this route.

This is a long route. Nobody will start it if there is not enough demand to fill at least a 789.

Does the 764 have enough range for EWR?
 
303dk
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:32 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
Does the 764 have enough range for EWR?


No.
 
solarflyer22
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 2:39 am

SCQ83 wrote:
mdavies06 wrote:
(1) all the European major carriers have been rushing to launch IKA in the past 2 year and aren't the Western European countries in the same situation as the US in relation to visa and trade restrictions etc?


You can get Visa on arrival with any European passport except British. The problem comes mainly from the US side since now a visit to Iran will cancel any ESTA which means an European having visited Iran should get an expensive and time consuming Tourist Visa to get into the US.


Bingo. The US actually penalizes/sanctions anyone that goes to Iran effectively. New sanctions were recently passed by Congress, Trump got elected and there is an effort to undermine Boeing sales to Iran so there is no possibility of any flights. At this point, Iran is hunkering down for war and they are rumored to be negotiating a large arms deal with Russia.
 
ahj2000
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:07 am

Would IAD be a better spot too start flghts betweenn the ISS and Iran than EWR? Both can carry traffic cnnx from Tehrangeles to Iran and there would be political traffic once diplomatic stufs are fixed.
-Andrés Juánez
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:04 am

Wasn't an American airline looking to start flights to Iraq after Saddam was out of power? That seems way more ludacris than flying to Iran.
solarflyer22 wrote:
At this point, Iran is hunkering down for war and they are rumored to be negotiating a large arms deal with Russia.

Evidence?
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CanadaFair
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:35 am

NWA were interested in doing Iraq.

That DC10 pic looks like its from Miami not Tehran.
 
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persiangulf93
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:14 pm

CanadaFair wrote:
NWA were interested in doing Iraq.

That DC10 pic looks like its from Miami not Tehran.


It was THR

http://www.flightpodcast.com/episode-4- ... nto-tehran

viewtopic.php?t=336203
 
jfk777
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:28 pm

Why would any airline want to touch this ? IF US airlines wan to fly to that part of the world Doha and Dubai would welcome them.
 
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persiangulf93
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:09 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Why would any airline want to touch this ? IF US airlines wan to fly to that part of the world Doha and Dubai would welcome them.


For the exact same reason dozens of other European and Asian companies are serving IKA.

There is big demand from US to Iran, Iranians are amongst the biggest and whealtiest minorities in the US.
 
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persiangulf93
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:10 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Why would any airline want to touch this ? IF US airlines wan to fly to that part of the world Doha and Dubai would welcome them.


For the exact same reason dozens of other European and Asian companies are serving IKA.

There is big demand from US to Iran, Iranians are amongst the biggest and whealtiest minorities in the US.
 
klm617
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:48 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
floridaflyboy wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
...may as well add DBQ, for all the strategic benefit of either of those two.

You do realize that DL is well under 100 flights a day in CVG these days, right?

Why are you quoting me in this?



303dk wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
DL could use the 77L to fly non-stop to Tehran from ATL and possibly CVG.

If anyone, it'd be DL from JFK or DTW.

The latter would be just as pointless as the other two.

AvGeeks need to get past this mistaken notion that DTW has some enormous draw to various regions of the Middle East.
It doesn't. Which is why it barely has any nonstops there, even to the places where it can.

LAX and JFK are by far the primary draws for traffic between Iran and the USA.



It's not a mistaken notion most people that fly back home from DTW either use ORD or YYZ because they can't afford the sky high fares from DTW. Why do you think AF has stuck around so long in Detroit it's because of the DTW-BEY traffic and before the first gulf war Iraqi Airways had planned to start flying DTW-BGW and even had a ticket office in Detroit. So before you make negative assumptions about the DTW market please check your facts. The reason that the majority of traveler back to the middle east aren't showing is because they are using other airports. Not to mention Northwest planned to fly DTW-AMS-BGW but the region never stabilized enough to make that possible.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
alfa164
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:26 pm

klm617 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
It's not a mistaken notion most people that fly back home from DTW either use ORD or YYZ because they can't afford the sky high fares from DTW. Why do you think AF has stuck around so long in Detroit it's because of the DTW-BEY traffic and before the first gulf war Iraqi Airways had planned to start flying DTW-BGW and even had a ticket office in Detroit.


Make up your mind! You say people "can't afford the sky high fares from DTW"... but then claim "AF has stuck around so long in Detroit...because of the DTW-BEY traffic". Can't you - even you - see the contradiction in that? Or do you think those AF flights are going out empty because of the "sky high" fares???

And do you have to hijack every conversation here with a whine about DTW fares... or lack of flights... or big, bad DL... :roll:
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Revelation
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:44 pm

AR385 wrote:
Limiting this thread to a mere aviation discussion, I do not think that in the medium term there is any revenue for an American carrier to fly to Teheran, much less any other city in Iran. It´s going to take time, assuming things are not modified by the new psychos in the White House for routes between the US and Iran to become significant in revenue. Much travel initially would be VFR, with meager premium revenue and with the competition by the ME3 and Iran Air. No American carrier is going to bother until the passenger mix changes to more premium. That will probably take a few years.


The thread wasn't limited to a mere aviation discussion for very long, was it? :biggrin:
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alfa164
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:59 pm

Revelation wrote:
AR385 wrote:
Limiting this thread to a mere aviation discussion, I do not think that in the medium term there is any revenue for an American carrier to fly to Teheran, much less any other city in Iran. It´s going to take time, assuming things are not modified by the new psychos in the White House for routes between the US and Iran to become significant in revenue. Much travel initially would be VFR, with meager premium revenue and with the competition by the ME3 and Iran Air. No American carrier is going to bother until the passenger mix changes to more premium. That will probably take a few years.

The thread wasn't limited to a mere aviation discussion for very long, was it? :biggrin:

I think he was just providing an apt description of them...
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I have decided to be cremated....
 
klm617
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Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 9:04 pm

alfa164 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
It's not a mistaken notion most people that fly back home from DTW either use ORD or YYZ because they can't afford the sky high fares from DTW. Why do you think AF has stuck around so long in Detroit it's because of the DTW-BEY traffic and before the first gulf war Iraqi Airways had planned to start flying DTW-BGW and even had a ticket office in Detroit.


Make up your mind! You say people "can't afford the sky high fares from DTW"... but then claim "AF has stuck around so long in Detroit...because of the DTW-BEY traffic". Can't you - even you - see the contradiction in that? Or do you think those AF flights are going out empty because of the "sky high" fares???

And do you have to hijack every conversation here with a whine about DTW fares... or lack of flights... or big, bad DL... :roll:


There was a comment made about DTW so I just replied nothing more nothing less. Am I no longer allowed to reply to negative comments about DTW because I didn't see that any where in the forum rules. I never said no one flies out of DTW to the middle east I said then numbers don't reflect the accurate amount of passenger that fly between the middle east because many are using alternate airports because limited options out of Detroit the same holds true for DTW-Poland market.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2957
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: First US Airline to return to Tehran?

Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:11 pm

DFW789ER wrote:
I would be quite shocked to see a U.S. airline serve Tehran. Just because sanctions have been lifted doesn't mean all is well. Especially when our president elect has suggested we may just need to shoot and/or bomb if Iran even looks suspicious.



sour grapes. and you read that from what publication? Let me take a stab at it, the dailynews?

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