pzurita1
Topic Author
Posts: 1243
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Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:15 pm

About 50 years ago QF used to fly its Fiesta Route connecting Acapulco and Mexico with both Australia, Bermuda and UK
It has been a long time since Aussies and Mexicans have to rely in connections through LAX and lately DFW. However, the market has grown considerably in the last few years.
In 2015 almost 69K Aussies visited Mexico. In 2014 it was 9K Mexicans visiting Australia.
In fact, Australia is the largest market from Mexico that does not have direct air services. Mexico gets more Australian visitors than SouthKorea (where AM has serious plans on flying next year), to AMS (where both KL and AM fly adding 11 weekly freq) and China (where AM flies 4x and Hainan has expressed interest in starting flying in 2017).

With figures up to 3Q 2016, we can estimate that it will be close to 80K Aussies in Mexico and 10K Mexicans flying to Australia.
That is a market of 90K pax. As mentioned before, there are less developed markets in Mexico that have direct airservices.
50% of Australian traveling to Mexico head to CUN as their entry destination and 34% use MEX as their entry point.

Of course, we have to consider the economics of such a long flight. It might requiere a serious load in the front cabin (business) and seems more like a leisure route. However, linking in the same flight MEX and CUN to SYD might prove a good mix. Also, according to Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Mexicans living in Australia earn 7% more than average of Australian-born workers and Mexican tourists spend between US$5000 to US$6000 on their trips to Australia (not cheap beach-goers).

So may be, it is time for this flights to resume if technical capabilities of aircraft allow it All data obtained from http://marcopolos21.com/blog/nacionalid ... -a-mexico/ (Spanish) and http://www.siimt.com (also Spanish)
Next flight: IAH-DBX-MRU-ANT
 
EddieDude
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Wed Nov 16, 2016 6:30 pm

Well, business ties are still very underdeveloped. Macquarie is quite big in Mexico, but I think most of the decisions regarding Macquarie's Mexican operations are made in Mexico City and New York, rather than Sydney. Other than them, there is very little Aussie investment in Mexico and vice versa. Cemex' acquisition of Rinker in 2007 was a complete disaster and I think they have essentially gotten rid of all if not most of the Rinker assets. Gruma might have some assets in Australia, but that would probably amount to one or two dozens of passengers per year at the most.

With respect to tourism, Mexico is probably a once in a lifetime destination for Aussies. Let's say twice. Aussies love to travel the world or at least a continent after finishing university, but those backpackers will usually find the cheapest air fares possible, so they would not be interesting for QF, VA, AM. Aussies who are older and wealthier consider a family trip to Mexico, with bigger budgets (maybe W or J seats), but since Australia's population is small and this is a once in a[n adult] lifetime trip, how much demand does this represent? Remember that Aussies have awesome beaches much closer to them in Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines, and it makes more sense to go there rather than going all the way to Tulúm, Cabo or Vallarta. As for Mexicans going to Australia, sure there are wealthy Mexicans going to Oz perhaps more than once, but your figures show how small the Mexicans to Oz market is vis-à-vis Aussies to Mexico. Finally there may be some student traffic, but then again these are low-yield travelers.

Do not get me wrong, it would be incredible to have a direct Mexico-Australia flight in order to bypass the nightmare that is LAX (DFW is a bit of a detour and SCL is a huge detour), but I doubt this will happen in the next five years... perhaps in 10?

I am going to Australia next year by the way. I have a wedding in Adelaide on December 1st that I am not going to miss. This would be my third trip down under. I am quite interested in using SkyMiles to book my flight and sample the new W or J cabin of VA.
Upcoming flights:
April/May: AM MEX-SCL 788 (J), AM EZE-MEX 789 (J).
 
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KrustyTheKlown
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Wed Nov 16, 2016 8:53 pm

According to GCMapper MEX-SYD is an ETOPS 330 - 8,000 nm route and according to its performance charts the maximum operational takeoff weight of the 787-8 (high trust engines) @ 15C taking off out MEX (7200 ft) is around 470,000 lbs, resulting in a payload of around 25,000 lbs @ 8,000 nm. So in the best of cases a 787-8 could be used for a direct MEX-SYD flight with important payload restrictions.

Better payload performance could be achieved with a stop in Tahiti as it is right next to the MEX-SYD great circle route and French Polynesia does not require visas for Australian and Mexican citizens. Stops in HNL, AKL or ACA are also possible.

If both Mexico and Australia approve the TPP or negotiate their own separate trade agreement I expect that the business ties between both countries could improve enough to support enough premium traffic to make SYD-MEX viable.
 
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mariner
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Wed Nov 16, 2016 9:00 pm

pzurita1 wrote:
Of course, we have to consider the economics of such a long flight. It might requiere a serious load in the front cabin (business) and seems more like a leisure route. However, linking in the same flight MEX and CUN to SYD might prove a good mix. Also, according to Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Mexicans living in Australia earn 7% more than average of Australian-born workers and Mexican tourists spend between US$5000 to US$6000 on their trips to Australia (not cheap beach-goers).


Just because I love Mexico and live in New Zealand, I'd rather see AKL-MEX, with, of course, connections from Australia. Air NZ claims that nearly 40% of its traffic AKL-EZE originates in Australia.

I think such a route's chances would be improved with a fifth freedom onward connection, if such a thing is legally allowed, and always assuming that the flight is technically possible.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
JeremyB
Posts: 173
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Wed Nov 16, 2016 9:18 pm

KrustyTheKlown wrote:
According to GCMapper MEX-SYD is an ETOPS 330 - 8,000 nm route and according to its performance charts the maximum operational takeoff weight of the 787-8 (high trust engines) @ 15C taking off out MEX (7200 ft) is around 470,000 lbs, resulting in a payload of around 25,000 lbs @ 8,000 nm. So in the best of cases a 787-8 could be used for a direct MEX-SYD flight with important payload restrictions.

Better payload performance could be achieved with a stop in Tahiti as it is right next to the MEX-SYD great circle route and French Polynesia does not require visas for Australian and Mexican citizens. Stops in HNL, AKL or ACA are also possible.

If both Mexico and Australia approve the TPP or negotiate their own separate trade agreement I expect that the business ties between both countries could improve enough to support enough premium traffic to make SYD-MEX viable.


You made a small mistake there, MEX-SYD is just slightly over 7,000nm. Aeromexico is getting a couple of 787-9's that should be more then capable to fly this route if they would launch it.
 
DFW789ER
Posts: 399
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Wed Nov 16, 2016 9:31 pm

KrustyTheKlown wrote:
According to GCMapper MEX-SYD is an ETOPS 330 - 8,000 nm route and according to its performance charts the maximum operational takeoff weight of the 787-8 (high trust engines) @ 15C taking off out MEX (7200 ft) is around 470,000 lbs, resulting in a payload of around 25,000 lbs @ 8,000 nm. So in the best of cases a 787-8 could be used for a direct MEX-SYD flight with important payload restrictions.

Better payload performance could be achieved with a stop in Tahiti as it is right next to the MEX-SYD great circle route and French Polynesia does not require visas for Australian and Mexican citizens. Stops in HNL, AKL or ACA are also possible.

If both Mexico and Australia approve the TPP or negotiate their own separate trade agreement I expect that the business ties between both countries could improve enough to support enough premium traffic to make SYD-MEX viable.


The old Fiesta route did go to PPT-ACA-MEX. I doubt we'll see a Australia-Mexico flight any time soon.
 
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KrustyTheKlown
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:06 pm

JeremyB wrote:
KrustyTheKlown wrote:
According to GCMapper MEX-SYD is an ETOPS 330 - 8,000 nm route and according to its performance charts the maximum operational takeoff weight of the 787-8 (high trust engines) @ 15C taking off out MEX (7200 ft) is around 470,000 lbs, resulting in a payload of around 25,000 lbs @ 8,000 nm. So in the best of cases a 787-8 could be used for a direct MEX-SYD flight with important payload restrictions.

Better payload performance could be achieved with a stop in Tahiti as it is right next to the MEX-SYD great circle route and French Polynesia does not require visas for Australian and Mexican citizens. Stops in HNL, AKL or ACA are also possible.

If both Mexico and Australia approve the TPP or negotiate their own separate trade agreement I expect that the business ties between both countries could improve enough to support enough premium traffic to make SYD-MEX viable.


You made a small mistake there, MEX-SYD is just slightly over 7,000nm. Aeromexico is getting a couple of 787-9's that should be more then capable to fly this route if they would launch it.


Yeah, that's why I wrote "According to GCMapper". Google earth says that MEX-SYD is ~7,000 nm resulting in a payload of ~40,000 lbs.

No idea why GCMapper says both cities are 1000 nm farther away. I'm inclined to believe google earth but I ended up using the GCmapper distance for reasons I already forgot about.
 
c933103
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:05 am

Had Australian authority authorized any ETOPS330 operations yet?
The message in signature have been removed according to demand.
 
vheca
Posts: 170
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:14 am

Sorry to hijack the thread a little but...

Remember that Aussies have awesome beaches much closer to them in Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines, and it makes more sense to go there rather than going all the way to Tulúm, Cabo or Vallarta.

I think our own beaches are not that bad, either, with some still a prized destination for local tourists as well as those from overseas.

I will retreat into my box and let you guys continue with the discussion.

Cheers

VHECA
PAX on- 300, 312, 320, 380, 722, 732, 733, 73H, 73W, 739, 742, 743, 74C, 752, 753, 762, 789, AB4, CR7, D1C, D28, DHT, F27, L11
 
qf002
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:19 am

KrustyTheKlown wrote:
No idea why GCMapper says both cities are 1000 nm farther away.


You've got GC mapper set to stat miles rather than nautical miles.
 
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MayaviaERJ190
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:55 am

Just as an anecdote... with KE dropping GRU, QF (A380) and NZ (B777) remain as the only daily(?) regular pax overflights of Mexico -of airlines not serving the country- on their Dallas and Houston routes, respectively. For Cancun and almost anywhere in Mexico, that makes it just an easy hop out of both DFW (AA) and IAH (UA). It varies further north or south, but most of the time they follow the LAP-NLD path. What's two more hours after going transpac?
My other plane is an A380.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:48 am

pzurita1 wrote:
About 50 years ago QF used to fly its Fiesta Route connecting Acapulco and Mexico with both Australia, Bermuda and UK
It has been a long time since Aussies and Mexicans have to rely in connections through LAX and lately DFW. However, the market has grown considerably in the last few years.
In 2015 almost 69K Aussies visited Mexico. In 2014 it was 9K Mexicans visiting Australia.
With figures up to 3Q 2016, we can estimate that it will be close to 80K Aussies in Mexico and 10K Mexicans flying to Australia.
That is a market of 90K pax. As mentioned before, there are less developed markets in Mexico that have direct airservices.
50% of Australian traveling to Mexico head to CUN as their entry destination and 34% use MEX as their entry point.

While I do not doubt the accuracy of your numbers I also think they are somewhat irrelevant. Most Australians going to North America are going to multiple destination, which in case of the 90K referred to makes direct service unattractive, as the are going to the USA/Canada/Caribbean as well.
Unfortunately I believe that it will be many years before Australia/Mexico business/tourist/cultural ties reach a point where direct service is feasible, although after 20/1/2017 who knows!

gemuser
 
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KrustyTheKlown
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:01 am

qf002 wrote:
KrustyTheKlown wrote:
No idea why GCMapper says both cities are 1000 nm farther away.


You've got GC mapper set to stat miles rather than nautical miles.


You are right, my bad.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 6646
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:26 pm

pzurita1 wrote:
About 50 years ago QF used to fly its Fiesta Route connecting Acapulco and Mexico with both Australia, Bermuda and UK
It has been a long time since Aussies and Mexicans have to rely in connections through LAX and lately DFW. However, the market has grown considerably in the last few years.
In 2015 almost 69K Aussies visited Mexico. In 2014 it was 9K Mexicans visiting Australia.
In fact, Australia is the largest market from Mexico that does not have direct air services. Mexico gets more Australian visitors than SouthKorea (where AM has serious plans on flying next year), to AMS (where both KL and AM fly adding 11 weekly freq) and China (where AM flies 4x and Hainan has expressed interest in starting flying in 2017).

With figures up to 3Q 2016, we can estimate that it will be close to 80K Aussies in Mexico and 10K Mexicans flying to Australia.
That is a market of 90K pax. As mentioned before, there are less developed markets in Mexico that have direct airservices.
50% of Australian traveling to Mexico head to CUN as their entry destination and 34% use MEX as their entry point.

Of course, we have to consider the economics of such a long flight. It might requiere a serious load in the front cabin (business) and seems more like a leisure route. However, linking in the same flight MEX and CUN to SYD might prove a good mix. Also, according to Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Mexicans living in Australia earn 7% more than average of Australian-born workers and Mexican tourists spend between US$5000 to US$6000 on their trips to Australia (not cheap beach-goers).

So may be, it is time for this flights to resume if technical capabilities of aircraft allow it All data obtained from http://marcopolos21.com/blog/nacionalid ... -a-mexico/ (Spanish) and http://www.siimt.com (also Spanish)


My god, that is a tortured argument. Routes of 50 years ago reflected limited range of aircraft as well as bilateral air rights treaties. They don't have one iota of relevance today. 90K visitors annually, from all points in Australia, to all points in Mexico (where major airports are going to be hot, high, or both), don't even begin to justify ULH non-stops.

Look at USA-India flights. There are more than 3 million American residents of Indian birth. They represent a high family income cohort (higher than native-born or Asian-American), yet the number of USA-India daily nonstop routes can be counted on the fingers of a mutilated hand.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... americans/
 
winGl3t
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 2:20 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Look at USA-India flights. There are more than 3 million American residents of Indian birth. They represent a high family income cohort (higher than native-born or Asian-American), yet the number of USA-India daily nonstop routes can be counted on the fingers of a mutilated hand.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... americans/




USA-India is a whole other animal. PAX flow through every major European, Asian, Canadian and ME hub and is predominantely low yielding.

Mexico-Australia traffic can only flow through few LAX, SFO, DFW or IAH/AKL flights. Although lower volume it is much higher yielding. For sure is still not enough revenue and volume to warrant non-stop flights.
 
pzurita1
Topic Author
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:26 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
pzurita1 wrote:
90K visitors annually, from all points in Australia, to all points in Mexico (where major airports are going to be hot, high, or both), don't even begin to justify ULH non-stops.

Look at USA-India flights. There are more than 3 million American residents of Indian birth. They represent a high family income cohort (higher than native-born or Asian-American), yet the number of USA-India daily nonstop routes can be counted on the fingers of a mutilated hand.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... americans/



True. A direct flight (not even a non stop flight) might not be feasible yet. However, the main point is to stress that the market is not that small. Smaller markets already have air services. There are many other factors to consider yet. However, 90k is not a small number. It is not to all point in Mexico. As stated, 88% of that is focused in MEX and CUN. There is even less traffic between China and Mexico (from all points in China to all points in Mexico as you point out). And yet, there are flights due to a more business oriented mix.

Good to see traffic is growing. Would not be that terrible to have these two countries linked via PPT.
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jetero
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:39 am

Are you sure those are actual arrivals from Australia and not just arrivals by Australian passport holders? Big difference ...
 
gregn21
Posts: 254
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:27 pm

Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:04 am

What about a thru routing using HNL. One would think that there has to be some Central America to Hawaii market. Plus, for an airline like Jetstar or Qantas, this would be easy as they already have a number of daily Australia-HNL frequencies as it is.
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 534
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 10:42 pm

Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:15 am

OZ-US traffic is where it's at. JFK and ORD offer much more than ACA, MEX, and CUN to a 1W member. If QF was in Sky Team, them MX and ATL are in play (and DTW for those who think DTW is entitled to nonstops to any city a plane can fly to).
 
globalcabotage
Posts: 534
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 10:42 pm

Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:15 am

OZ-US traffic is where it's at. JFK and ORD offer much more than ACA, MEX, and CUN to a 1W member. If QF was in Sky Team, them MX and ATL are in play (and DTW for those who think DTW is entitled to nonstops to any city a plane can fly to).
 
pzurita1
Topic Author
Posts: 1243
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2002 11:21 am

Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:27 pm

Gemuser wrote:
pzurita1 wrote:
About 50 years ago QF used to fly its Fiesta Route connecting Acapulco and Mexico with both Australia, Bermuda and UK
It has been a long time since Aussies and Mexicans have to rely in connections through LAX and lately DFW. However, the market has grown considerably in the last few years.
In 2015 almost 69K Aussies visited Mexico. In 2014 it was 9K Mexicans visiting Australia.
With figures up to 3Q 2016, we can estimate that it will be close to 80K Aussies in Mexico and 10K Mexicans flying to Australia.
That is a market of 90K pax. As mentioned before, there are less developed markets in Mexico that have direct airservices.
50% of Australian traveling to Mexico head to CUN as their entry destination and 34% use MEX as their entry point.

While I do not doubt the accuracy of your numbers I also think they are somewhat irrelevant. Most Australians going to North America are going to multiple destination, which in case of the 90K referred to makes direct service unattractive, as the are going to the USA/Canada/Caribbean as well.
Unfortunately I believe that it will be many years before Australia/Mexico business/tourist/cultural ties reach a point where direct service is feasible, although after 20/1/2017 who knows!

gemuser



Indeed, most Australians visiting Mexico do it as a multi country trip. But they visit Mexico and Guatemala, or Mexico and Costa Rica, or Mexico and Cuba. So Mexico is the entry point to the region. There are less Australians visiting Mexico as part of a US trip (only may be visiting TIJ and SJD by road, a statistic not included in the reported figures).
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pzurita1
Topic Author
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Re: Australia to Mexico possible? Market data suggest so...

Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:28 pm

jetero wrote:
Are you sure those are actual arrivals from Australia and not just arrivals by Australian passport holders? Big difference ...

In fact they are arrivals by Australian residents, regardless of their passport. However, arrivals by Australian passport holders and Australian residents are very similar.
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