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keesje
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A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:28 pm

Many thought the 737 was done around 2010. The NSA was close to launch replacing the 40 year old 737 design.

Now it will remain in production until at least 2022 and Boeing is looking at a major upgrade.

The A330 is 25 years old and still going strong, specially in Asia. Will the A330-800/-900 be the last variants?

Image

An A338 245t MRTT, A339F, a further stretch, a real MoM variant, all could be developed / introduced relatively cheap and fast.

Closing the mature FAL / supply chain seems economical non-sense if there's money to be made and alternatives (A350) remain sold out anyway.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Francoflier
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:58 pm

It depends on whether incremental improvements are sufficient to keep it a viable option for airlines.

As it is essentially being marketed as a poor man's 787 these days, it's main selling point is its low acquisition cost. It offers the payload of a 787 (-ish) and a good chunk of the range for a much lower price.
They are already slapping new gen engines on it, so the next major evolutionary step up from there is a redesigned wing. Except that's massively expensive, so I doubt it will ever happen since the 787 will become more competitive on price as its backlog decreases and will put increased pressure on this segment of the market.

I expect it will keep chugging along for maybe another decade or so before it's time for a replacement of some kind.
Hard to tell how the market will evolve. The price of oil will be a major factor in that as well.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
StTim
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:11 pm

I am not sure the 787 is going to become that much more competitive on price in the short term. Boeing still need to recover that rather large deferred cost before they can realistically do much on price. I would say having the 330 (ceo and neo) around has squeezed the price of the 787 already.
 
Tedd
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:23 pm

I believe the A330NEO will turn out to be a decent & worthwhile improvement, & may have a good production
run, but the way design & engineering is progressing I could see it being the last iteration. I`d imagine the replacement
with a much smaller footprint but clever interior layout, made of composites with GTF`s, with a lighter `Advance` engine
A350 (-800 sized perhaps ) taking up any slack at the top end.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:23 pm

They will keep selling it as long as they have more demand for widebodies than the A350 line on its own can fill. If demand stays low, or if they are able to raise A350 production rate, that will spell the end for the A330.

Right now, the A330 attracts a nice subset of customers for whom the A350 (and 787) are too expensive to buy. Once production cost comes down on the A350, there's really no reason for customers to want an A330-900 instead of an A350-900, except if Airbus just can't produce enough A350s.
 
rufusmi
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:31 pm

seabosdca wrote:
They will keep selling it as long as they have more demand for widebodies than the A350 line on its own can fill. If demand stays low, or if they are able to raise A350 production rate, that will spell the end for the A330.

Right now, the A330 attracts a nice subset of customers for whom the A350 (and 787) are too expensive to buy. Once production cost comes down on the A350, there's really no reason for customers to want an A330-900 instead of an A350-900, except if Airbus just can't produce enough A350s.


Do keep in mind that for some airlines, an A350-900 might be too large. The A359 is about the same size as a 772, while the A333 is about the same size as a 764.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:40 pm

rufusmi wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
They will keep selling it as long as they have more demand for widebodies than the A350 line on its own can fill. If demand stays low, or if they are able to raise A350 production rate, that will spell the end for the A330.

Right now, the A330 attracts a nice subset of customers for whom the A350 (and 787) are too expensive to buy. Once production cost comes down on the A350, there's really no reason for customers to want an A330-900 instead of an A350-900, except if Airbus just can't produce enough A350s.


Do keep in mind that for some airlines, an A350-900 might be too large. The A359 is about the same size as a 772, while the A333 is about the same size as a 764.

I always thought that the 764 was closer in size to a A332.

I would like to see Airbus launch an A343 MAX for Qantas and Lan transpacific routes. Perhaps South African would be interested as well.
 
WIederling
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:47 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Is it is essentially being marketed as a poor man's 787 these days, it's main selling point is its low acquisition cost.


That is the position presented by people who think a 787 is a much superior product.
But I don't think that is what Airbus product leaflet says. :-)

The aero design doesn't appear to be outdated ( beyond what small changes can fix )
What the A330 could use is more MTOW. everything else is "there".
Murphy is an optimist
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:03 pm

keesje wrote:
Many thought the 737 was done around 2010. The NSA was close to launch replacing the 40 year old 737 design.

Who's the "many?"

That all seemed way more like AvGeek speculation, than any impending definitive course of action by Boeing.


WIederling wrote:
What the A330 could use is more MTOW. everything else is "there".

To do what?

The 242T A332 already has more range than a 744.
Even the 238T A333 can already fly northern TPACs.

A338/A339 will already improve upon both, so what do they really "need" more for?
Is any carrier even asking for such?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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keesje
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:08 pm

Further upsizing the A330 in weight, size and capability seems easier than reducing everything for a MoM like mission.

Image
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Planesmart
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:09 pm

Airbus is being careful to withhold A330 features, growth and performance, to avoid eroding A350 sales.

Even though priced significantly below the 787, I bet this family enjoys the highest margins of any Airbus model.
 
WIederling
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:24 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Is any carrier even asking for such?


No idea but probable. 245t is in the chute.
My guess is we will probably see 248t and maybe ~250t slightly further out.

With enabled center wingbox tank ( on -300/-900) both types can have "easy" range gains from more fuel.
Interesting not in absolute range ( zero payload for full tanks as used for delivery flights :-)
but in moving the payload for fuel derate further out.
5t more MTOW is what? ~40minutes more flying time for the same payload?
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:26 pm

keesje wrote:
Further upsizing the A330 in weight, ...aka A330-1000


Is that for when Boeing gets too boisterous on the 7810 :-?

MOM:
an Airbus plane to fit that slot will be designed for a higher paying payload fraction.
Looking more like an A310 than an A330.
Murphy is an optimist
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:53 pm

Planesmart wrote:
Airbus is being careful to withhold A330 features, growth and performance, to avoid eroding A350 sales.

Even though priced significantly below the 787, I bet this family enjoys the highest margins of any Airbus model.


I do not see Airbus withholding features regarding the A330. What should those features be? I expect most features introduced on the A350 to be offered on the A330, cabin, advances in the FBW, with the neo the engines move to a similar standard, electric/electronic controlled bleed and so on. I think Airbus is rather adding all available features and thinking more about competing with the smaller 787's, than keeping the distance to the A350. The A350 is the next size up. The A330 is a cash cow at Airbus and they sell you happily as many as your are prepared to buy.

I do not believe that the A330 will be stretched passed the A330-300/900 size. Airbus can offer you the A350 if you need something bigger. But I also think that a stretch would be relatively heavy, because stretching the aluminium tube would add faster weight, than a stretch of a comparable carbon fibre fuselage. If such a stretch would need an increased MTOW, far to many things would need to be changed like having to have a look at the centre MLG.
 
sf260
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 8:09 pm

Interesting topic.

Imo, the A330neo has it's place below the A350 in the Airbus line-up. Ok, it is not as efficient as the 787 or A350 (only a couple of percent points in fuel efficiency, Airbus says around 4%, but it is expected to do better and only burn 2% more per seat in a comparable lay-out). So as long as Airbus can offer it a discount over the 787 and A350, it will sell without a doubt. Mainly to current A330 operators who don't need the range of the 787 or A350.

I don't think we will see an A330-1000, it is too close to the A350-900 and will be a niche aircraft like the A330-800 (at the other end, a low purchase won't be enough to offset the efficiency advantage of a 787-10 or A350-900).

On the other hand, I could see a revival of A300 with a new wing and engine, optimised for 4000nm missions. It could be built on the same line as the A330neo, so apart from design and certification, no big (manufacturing plant) investment required from Airbus.

Regarding the clean sheet 737NG, I don't think it was just an AvGeek plane in the 2010 timeframe. Boeing was defining its future line-up in the various Yellowstone projects. Y2 turned out to be the 787. Y1 did not materialise, and Y3 was sort of the 747-8. I think, mainly due to the 787 debacle (and to a lesser extent 747-8) and its associated delays, that Boeing got behind and played catch up with Airbus ever since. AIrbus launched the A320neo before Boeing had its acts together.
 
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keesje
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 8:15 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Planesmart wrote:
Airbus is being careful to withhold A330 features, growth and performance, to avoid eroding A350 sales.

Even though priced significantly below the 787, I bet this family enjoys the highest margins of any Airbus model.


I do not see Airbus withholding features regarding the A330. What should those features be? I expect most features introduced on the A350 to be offered on the A330, cabin, advances in the FBW, with the neo the engines move to a similar standard, electric/electronic controlled bleed and so on. I think Airbus is rather adding all available features and thinking more about competing with the smaller 787's, than keeping the distance to the A350. The A350 is the next size up. The A330 is a cash cow at Airbus and they sell you happily as many as your are prepared to buy.

I do not believe that the A330 will be stretched passed the A330-300/900 size. Airbus can offer you the A350 if you need something bigger. But I also think that a stretch would be relatively heavy, because stretching the aluminium tube would add faster weight, than a stretch of a comparable carbon fibre fuselage. If such a stretch would need an increased MTOW, far to many things would need to be changed like having to have a look at the centre MLG.


An alternative would be to fill the longer term A321 - A350-900 gap. Apparently it's there, ask Boeing. It would however require an expensive new light wing, wingbox and engines. Bringing down empty weight and associated operating costs significantly.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:00 pm

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
fcogafa
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:19 pm

Going by sales recently I do wonder if the B787/A330 crossover has now occurred and the 787 is now the preferred option. Sales of the NEO have been unspectacular, one airline has over a third of the orders spread over 8 years. If a recent thread is correct, lease rates on the NEO are already very low which suggests the launch lessors, which account for another third of orders, are having trouble finding homes for their aircraft.
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:39 pm

@Keesje: do you have any numbers for your proposed A330-700? I think the key for this concept is the engine, maybe a PW4000G if Pratt is up for it? How do you see this?

It's all a bit academic at this point as I, realistically, do not really see Airbus launching it soon (read: ever). They have the A321neoLR. However, if Airbus likes the idea of -700, they should do it before Boeing launches the MoM. If it would cost $3 billion to develop (mainly a new wing), I don't see a straight forward answer from Boeing. A clean sheet MoM would probably cost $8-10 billion. Big difference.
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:06 pm

sf260 wrote:
@Keesje: do you have any numbers for your proposed A330-700? I think the key for this concept is the engine, maybe a PW4000G if Pratt is up for it? How do you see this?

It's all a bit academic at this point as I, realistically, do not really see Airbus launching it soon (read: ever). They have the A321neoLR. However, if Airbus likes the idea of -700, they should do it before Boeing launches the MoM. If it would cost $3 billion to develop (mainly a new wing), I don't see a straight forward answer from Boeing. A clean sheet MoM would probably cost $8-10 billion. Big difference.


The A330-800 only has 10 sales so far. The market so far is lukewarm for the smaller A330neo. I simply don't see any real demand for an even smaller A330neo. A smaller capacity plane has a market, but unless Airbus can cut OEW by 20-30%, i don't think anyone would buy it. Getting an A330neo to shrink down in weight to that of an A310 or A300 is virtually impossible without an entirely new plane.
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:12 pm

The A300 has an OEW of around 90t, that is 40-45t lower than the A330neo. If airbus would be able to get in that ball park again with an A330=700, it can definitely be an interesting plane, wouldn't you agree?
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:13 pm

rufusmi wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
Do keep in mind that for some airlines, an A350-900 might be too large. The A359 is about the same size as a 772, while the A333 is about the same size as a 764.


The 333/339 are considerably larger than a 764, which is about the same size as a 332/338/788. They are pretty much exactly the size of the 789 and only slightly smaller than the 359.

It is true that the 359 is "too much plane" for some operators so far, but that's more about capability and price than it is about size. If the 359 were the price of a 339, it wouldn't have issues attracting those operators.
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

sf260 wrote:
The A300 has an OEW of around 90t, that is 40-45t lower than the A330neo. If airbus would be able to get in that ball park again with an A330=700, it can definitely be an interesting plane, wouldn't you agree?


It is going to require a new wing to get weights that small. The A300 wing is about 30% smaller than the A330neo. With lower weights, they would need a new lighter weight landing gear. The wingbox is overdesigned and would need to be redone. The engines would have to be smaller. Hydraulic systems and pneumatic systems are oversized. In general it would take a lot of work to lighten the A330neo enough to the point that they might as well be building a new plane.

I think an A330-700 would be an interesting plane but the starting point of the unpopular A330-800 is going to be really hard to make economical.

There are a few people questioning if even the A338 will be built so that really makes it hard to believe that Airbus would seriously consider an A330 700. There are only 10 A338s on order. 6 for Hawaiian are a compromise for the cancelled A350-800 and Transasia is looking at getting rid of some of their current A330s so the 4 orders for them are a bit questionable. The A330 has been selling well but it has been he larger A330 -300/900 in recent years.
 
sf260
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:41 pm

You are not really reading my posts, aren't you? I never said that shrinking the A330 is a good idea (which it isn't), but rather revisiting the A300.
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:47 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
sf260 wrote:
The A300 has an OEW of around 90t, that is 40-45t lower than the A330neo. If airbus would be able to get in that ball park again with an A330=700, it can definitely be an interesting plane, wouldn't you agree?


It is going to require a new wing to get weights that small. The A300 wing is about 30% smaller than the A330neo. With lower weights, they would need a new lighter weight landing gear. The wingbox is overdesigned and would need to be redone. The engines would have to be smaller. Hydraulic systems and pneumatic systems are oversized. In general it would take a lot of work to lighten the A330neo enough to the point that they might as well be building a new plane.

I think an A330-700 would be an interesting plane but the starting point of the unpopular A330-800 is going to be really hard to make economical.

There are a few people questioning if even the A338 will be built so that really makes it hard to believe that Airbus would seriously consider an A330 700. There are only 10 A338s on order. 6 for Hawaiian are a compromise for the cancelled A350-800 and Transasia is looking at getting rid of some of their current A330s so the 4 orders for them are a bit questionable. The A330 has been selling well but it has been he larger A330 -300/900 in recent years.


Why not use an A300 wing box with a lighter composite wing? Use A300 landing gear. If A330 systems are too heavy, why not use some A321 systems? Then Airbus could have an A-300 replacement.
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:47 pm

sf260 wrote:
You are not really reading my posts, aren't you? I never said that shrinking the A330 is a good idea (which it isn't), but rather revisiting the A300.


Maybe you can explain yourself. This is what you wrote:

"The A300 has an OEW of around 90t, that is 40-45t lower than the A330neo. If airbus would be able to get in that ball park again with an A330=700, it can definitely be an interesting plane, wouldn't you agree?"

You typed A330=700. How is an A337 going to get in the ballpark of the A300 weights without shrinking everything? Are you talking about bringing back the A300 production line and calling it an A330-700? The A300 is long dead with the number still in service dwindling. I simply can't see Airbus bringing back an airplane without fly by wire that has been out of production so long. The certification and qualification for most of the components is gone. So much if that 1970s and 1980s era technology is obsolete and would need to be redesigned since the supply chain has not kept parts in production. With the amount of money required to bring back that plane, Airbus would be better off building something brand new.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:56 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
sf260 wrote:
The A300 has an OEW of around 90t, that is 40-45t lower than the A330neo. If airbus would be able to get in that ball park again with an A330=700, it can definitely be an interesting plane, wouldn't you agree?


It is going to require a new wing to get weights that small. The A300 wing is about 30% smaller than the A330neo. With lower weights, they would need a new lighter weight landing gear. The wingbox is overdesigned and would need to be redone. The engines would have to be smaller. Hydraulic systems and pneumatic systems are oversized. In general it would take a lot of work to lighten the A330neo enough to the point that they might as well be building a new plane.

I think an A330-700 would be an interesting plane but the starting point of the unpopular A330-800 is going to be really hard to make economical.

There are a few people questioning if even the A338 will be built so that really makes it hard to believe that Airbus would seriously consider an A330 700. There are only 10 A338s on order. 6 for Hawaiian are a compromise for the cancelled A350-800 and Transasia is looking at getting rid of some of their current A330s so the 4 orders for them are a bit questionable. The A330 has been selling well but it has been he larger A330 -300/900 in recent years.


Why not use an A300 wing box with a lighter composite wing? Use A300 landing gear. If A330 systems are too heavy, why not use some A321 systems? Then Airbus could have an A-300 replacement.


I think you should ask Keesje how Airbus would make an A330-700 viable. The airplane concept is his idea.

In my opinion I think what you are proposing would be better served with an all new plane that would replace the A330neo family and cover the smaller end of the widebody market. The A338 is not selling well, so a new airplane covering the A337 and A338 capacity could be wildly successful. The A339 can stick around and eventually we could have a new A360 fit nicely under the A330neo and A350.
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:04 pm

"The A338 is not selling well, .."

That is a bit of a boring statement.
788 is selling even less.
IMU that slot is dead. One size up has all the range needed
and is thus a more efficient transport without introducing limitations.
In that "One size up" the A339 probably is the more attractive offer as the
capacity delta is a lot cheaper to have than on the 789.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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keesje
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:12 am

sf260 wrote:
@Keesje: do you have any numbers for your proposed A330-700? I think the key for this concept is the engine, maybe a PW4000G if Pratt is up for it? How do you see this?

It's all a bit academic at this point as I, realistically, do not really see Airbus launching it soon (read: ever). They have the A321neoLR. However, if Airbus likes the idea of -700, they should do it before Boeing launches the MoM. If it would cost $3 billion to develop (mainly a new wing), I don't see a straight forward answer from Boeing. A clean sheet MoM would probably cost $8-10 billion. Big difference.


To be competitive, an A330-700 would definitely need a just right smaller, lighter wingbox, wings, engines,landing gear to get in the 80-90t empty weight category of the A300/A310, down ~25-30 tonnes.

I would retain the A330 family cockpit, fuselage, tail, systems, cabin option catalog, MRO infrastructure and offer 100% cockpit commonality with the 1500 A330's sold.



Range would be around 5000NM, similar to the A310-300 and engines would have to be around 50k lbs, like the foreseen MoM engines.

Image

Seat capacity would be up to 350 passengers single class 8 abreast, or up to 400 passengers 9 abreast plus a good load of cargo LD3 containers.

Rest value of the aircraft would probably be good like the A300/A310 it can carry standard wide body containers/pallets.

Many passenger / cargo conversions have been done on the A300 / A310s by various specialist companies.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:36 am

blacksoviet wrote:
I would like to see Airbus launch an A343 MAX

I'd love to see them launch a Concorde MAX, which has about the same chance of happening..... zero.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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RayChuang
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:18 am

I wouldn't be surprised that Airbus is studying the very idea of an A330-700 with a smaller wing and range up to 5,200 nautical miles. It wold certainly make it VERY attractive for longer-range regional routes, shorter range high-capacity regional routes, and even transatlantic flying.
 
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:52 am

A A330-700 would essentially be a new plane. And one should not forget that the popularity of the A300/A310 with cargo operators comes from the fact that many airframes were withdrawn from passenger use when they were still quite young and had many hours and cycles left.
 
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keesje
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:37 am

seahawk wrote:
A A330-700 would essentially be a new plane. And one should not forget that the popularity of the A300/A310 with cargo operators comes from the fact that many airframes were withdrawn from passenger use when they were still quite young and had many hours and cycles left.


Yes plus the fact many were sold as new one in the nineties and they had little competition. There existed no other twin freighter that fitted LD3 so efficient lower and main deck.

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mat66
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:11 am

I like this thread. IMHO the chances of a stretched (3-4m) A321 with a new wing and range of the 752+200nm are way bigger and would not only be cheaper to build but had more success in the market.
 
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keesje
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:34 am

mat66 wrote:
I like this thread. IMHO the chances of a stretched (3-4m) A321 with a new wing and range of the 752+200nm are way bigger and would not only be cheaper to build but had more success in the market.


Probably. But that would only make the gap smaller, A322 - A359. An A350-900 is still twice as big, expensive, heavy, carries twice as much and flies twice as far as a A321 stretch. And can do serious cargo reliably with headwind. The market is still full of (2000?) 767, 757, A300, A310 in different line, leisure, freighter roles and they won't fly forever.

Image
9 Abreast A310 cabin, AirTransat.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mat66
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:55 am

keesje wrote:

Probably. But that would only make the gap smaller, A322 - A359. An A350-900 is still twice as big, expensive, heavy, carries twice as much and flies twice as far as a A321 stretch. And can do serious cargo reliably with headwind. The market is still full of (2000?) 767, 757, A300, A310 in different line, leisure, freighter roles and they won't fly forever.


Yes it is smaller, although not 50% smaller. There are more competitors in the market and frequency is the game, especially on short long haul. Come to think of it, I'm not a believer in a MOM concept.

I like the A330-1000 more. If there is a relatively cheap way to build it and if there is an engine for it ready, I think it could give the 7810 a run for the money on the the same merits of price.
Range of 5000nm-5500nm?
 
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keesje
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:24 am

mat66 wrote:
keesje wrote:

Probably. But that would only make the gap smaller, A322 - A359. An A350-900 is still twice as big, expensive, heavy, carries twice as much and flies twice as far as a A321 stretch. And can do serious cargo reliably with headwind. The market is still full of (2000?) 767, 757, A300, A310 in different line, leisure, freighter roles and they won't fly forever.


Yes it is smaller, although not 50% smaller. There are more competitors in the market and frequency is the game, especially on short long haul. Come to think of it, I'm not a believer in a MOM concept.

I like the A330-1000 more. If there is a relatively cheap way to build it and if there is an engine for it ready, I think it could give the 7810 a run for the money on the the same merits of price.
Range of 5000nm-5500nm?


The popular a.net(?) concept of a "simple" stretch shifts cabin capacity for payload-range. In this case keeping the MTOW the same as on the A330-900. (ok I upped it a further 2 tonnes../ 1 %)

A 330-900 has a official range of 6550 nm, so a -1000 stretch would end up maybe 1000NM shorter, dependent on many assumptions and operational conditions :wink2:

Image

In practice a A330-1000 it would probably not "compete" very much with the heavier, far more capable A350-900 and -1000's.

Those will mainly operate on long cargo heavy flights to/from hot places in Asia, like the 777s.

Both A350 and A330 come from the same stable and Airbus could play with price and conditions to optimize for its own bottom line / production schedules.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
oldannyboy
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:42 am

seahawk wrote:
A A330-700 would essentially be a new plane. And one should not forget that the popularity of the A300/A310 with cargo operators comes from the fact that many airframes were withdrawn from passenger use when they were still quite young and had many hours and cycles left.


Absolutely.
People here get carried away very easily with fantasy projects...
Also, shrinking AND shedding weight from a current design is way more difficult than the opposite... Here you would have to do both, plus re-design the wing AND slung new, more efficient engines under those wings.. NOT going to happen guys.
An A322LR sort-of-thing? maybe. Not necessarily going to happen, but maybe, perhaps...if the A321LR proves itself and they see a clear, tangible market..
 
WIederling
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:02 am

oldannyboy wrote:
People here get carried away very easily with fantasy projects...


Hehehe.

What creates more devel cost these days? Structure or systems?

My guess would be that the balance is moving towards systems.
If Airbus can build a new Airframe that can leverage most of the systems design from the current product palette ...
( massive amounts of synergy released already from migrating A380 items to A350 .. )
Murphy is an optimist
 
parapente
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:33 am

Both A&B have and still are investing squillions in new projects.Some will have lost (at least for now) vast amounts of $$$€€€.Consider the A380,the B748 and 787.But even the 350 and 330 new will have to earn their way.Now is not the time to pour more development costs.Now is the time to earn profits back on these considerable investments.The CEO Airbus has said exactly that and Boeing CEO similar.
I can see layoffs in the R&D depts in the future as the present cycle winds down (it is).
I am frankly surprised that either A or B are even entertaining the muddled Singapore brief.They should tell them to get on and choose from what is on offer.This is not a 'bespoke' business.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:33 am

WIederling wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
People here get carried away very easily with fantasy projects...


Hehehe.

What creates more devel cost these days? Structure or systems?

My guess would be that the balance is moving towards systems.
If Airbus can build a new Airframe that can leverage most of the systems design from the current product palette ...
( massive amounts of synergy released already from migrating A380 items to A350 .. )


and the synergy is released to the 330 and to the 320 series
 
fcogafa
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:42 am

Looks like the A330-800 backlog has gone down to 6 today
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:05 pm

WIederling wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
People here get carried away very easily with fantasy projects...


Hehehe.

What creates more devel cost these days? Structure or systems?

My guess would be that the balance is moving towards systems.
If Airbus can build a new Airframe that can leverage most of the systems design from the current product palette ...
( massive amounts of synergy released already from migrating A380 items to A350 .. )


Systems is where there is much more development cost. Using components from other designs has been around for since before Airbus. The 727 and 737 had very similar system components. The 767 shared its flight deck, avionics and system architecture with the 757 while sharing engines with the 747. I am sure Airbus is taking advantage of this as well.
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:10 pm

keesje wrote:
In practice a A330-1000 it would probably not "compete" very much with the heavier, far more capable A350-900 and -1000's.

Those will mainly operate on long cargo heavy flights to/from hot places in Asia, like the 777s.


Airbus already has a product in its portfolio for such a role and that is the A350Regional. And it already has customers: SQ, EI and perhaps even more I cannot recollect right now. And perhaps a large order from EK soon. I don't think a hypothetical A330neo-1000 would win from the 787-10 because it will suffer from the same issues (certainly as for as EK and the 78X is concerned): slightly underwinged & underpowered. But an A330neo-K would have even less range.

The A33K could win orders from the 78X on price, but would Airbus be willing to risk developing such a new variant without the knowledge it will sell enough copies to recoup cost? AFAIK, no airline has mentioned an interest in a larger A330 variant.
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:10 pm

fcogafa wrote:
Looks like the A330-800 backlog has gone down to 6 today


At what point does Airbus give up with the A330-800? The plane is not selling. Flight tests and development work are still required for the smaller variant. There are still tens of millions of dollars required for flight envelope testing associated with the A330-800 wing and engine changes. Spreading that over only 6 airplanes is going to create an orphan fleet and be a waste of money. Is Airbus going to build it hoping to base a next generation freighter on it?
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:43 pm

I don't think an A330-1000 is a good idea, and I don't think it will happen. The reason is that it would start stealing A350-900 sales.

Regarding the A330-700 idea, it could be viable. But it would need to be significantly cheaper than the A330-800, and it would need better economics. Better economics means new engines, lighter airframe and new wing. A new wing could be designed to fit both an A322 and an A330-700, but with two different wing boxes.

The reason the A330-800 isn't selling much is because it costs nearly the same as an A330-900, it doesn't have better fuel economy, and it carries less pax. The only upside to it is the longer range.

The A330-700 would have to be a completely different animal, but then the commonality goes out the window too.
 
airbazar
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:20 pm

Wouldn't a potential A350 LITE kill the A330 for good? And isn't that a more logical progression than a major redesign of the A330?
IMO this A338/9 is the last iteration of this line. I think next up wil be Airbus' reaction to Boeing's MoM.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:21 pm

If Airbus would do a wide body frame below the A330 one could look to the A300/310. Same fuselage diameter, lighter wingbox, lighter MLG, new wing, most likely CFRP, lighter engines with less thrust than the A330. I would not expect Airbus to do it in the near future.
 
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seahawk
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:30 pm

airbazar wrote:
Wouldn't a potential A350 LITE kill the A330 for good? And isn't that a more logical progression than a major redesign of the A330?
IMO this A338/9 is the last iteration of this line. I think next up wil be Airbus' reaction to Boeing's MoM.


"lite" is never easy in engineering. It is easy to strengthen an existing structure, making it lighter though often means you need a new design.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: A330NEO : The final A330/340 variants. Or not so fast?

Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:42 pm

seahawk wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Wouldn't a potential A350 LITE kill the A330 for good? And isn't that a more logical progression than a major redesign of the A330?
IMO this A338/9 is the last iteration of this line. I think next up wil be Airbus' reaction to Boeing's MoM.


"lite" is never easy in engineering. It is easy to strengthen an existing structure, making it lighter though often means you need a new design.



"People here get carried away very easily with fantasy projects...
Also, shrinking AND shedding weight from a current design is way more difficult than the opposite... Here you would have to do both, plus re-design the wing AND slung new, more efficient engines under those wings.. NOT going to happen guys."

I know it's not polite to quote oneself :-) but tanks for agreeing on an obvious fact that the general public tends to ignore.

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