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TWA772LR
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What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:04 am

Alaska is reportedly having a hard time with the Virgin America merger, what if it falls through? What's the chance it could?

Would B6 come back with another offer for VX? Would Delta take advantage of a quick gobble up of VX to grow significantly in California and give UA a run for its money in SFO?
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
32andBelow
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:20 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Alaska is reportedly having a hard time with the Virgin America merger, what if it falls through? What's the chance it could?

Would B6 come back with another offer for VX? Would Delta take advantage of a quick gobble up of VX to grow significantly in California and give UA a run for its money in SFO?

Everything says its going to close within a week...
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:28 am

[threeid][/threeid]
32andBelow wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Alaska is reportedly having a hard time with the Virgin America merger, what if it falls through? What's the chance it could?

Would B6 come back with another offer for VX? Would Delta take advantage of a quick gobble up of VX to grow significantly in California and give UA a run for its money in SFO?

Everything says its going to close within a week...

Didnt say that a week ago?
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
questions
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 6:00 am

What is the evidence AS is having a hard time with the merger?

What specifically would make AS back out?

If AS backs out, B6 will swoop in, acquire VX and adopt the Virgin America name and licensing agreement.

The new B6/VX will enter into a JV with DL, VS and VA for international connecting flights.

AS will be purchased by HA and enter into extensive JV agreements with QF, CX and JL.
 
scoping2008
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 6:50 am

questions wrote:
What is the evidence AS is having a hard time with the merger?

What specifically would make AS back out?

If AS backs out, B6 will swoop in, acquire VX and adopt the Virgin America name and licensing agreement.

The new B6/VX will enter into a JV with DL, VS and VA for international connecting flights.

AS will be purchased by HA and enter into extensive JV agreements with QF, CX and JL.



There is ZERO chance that HA could purchase AS. On the other hand, AS could easily afford HA.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:05 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Alaska is reportedly having a hard time with the Virgin America merger


It's not, and it won't fall through. You'll just have to trust me on this.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
b6sea
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:44 am

Yeah, my understanding is that all signs point pretty firmly in the direction of this finishing up very very soon. I don't think any new information has come to light that would suggest otherwise and all of the reporting on "problems" appear to have been analysts playing a game of telephone with rumors or speculating. No one has said anything that would confirm any of the potential issues are actually problems. The only thing I can think of is that one lawsuit in San Francisco, but even that was just a formality from what I understand.
 
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:49 am

If anything, AAG is taking the time to make sure that when they finalize, things will go smoothly & without any hiccups. AS has a longstanding history of making sound & well planned decisions.

Their one & only other acquisition, buying SI aka Jet America in the 90's for a few leased M80's & routes that AS didn't keep for long, not sure I understood the buyout, except I think SI may have been a bargain at the time they submitted to the buyout by AS.

Exactly like EA CO AS said, it's in the bag, no one is backing out, way too much has been invested already. I'm guessing at the time it's formally complete, AAG will be able to discuss what (if anything) had to be compromised & we should all get a better understanding of what will happen fleet & route wise, in the near term.

It should be an interesting week next week, as this is a holiday week & nothing much business wise is happening here in the US tomorrow, except people leaving work as soon as possible & millions of people flying around the country to celebrate the National holiday with their families & friends..
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
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RacheyFlies
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:34 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
Alaska is reportedly having a hard time with the Virgin America merger, what if it falls through? What's the chance it could?

Would B6 come back with another offer for VX? Would Delta take advantage of a quick gobble up of VX to grow significantly in California and give UA a run for its money in SFO?

Now I think Delta would just codeshare maybe all VX if not approved, because I think DL has many other codeshare in another Virgin Airlines and that's why I think All Virgin Airlines (including VA, VS, VX) maybe codeshare with Delta if not approved with AS.

RacheyFlies
The best plane I've flown is an A380. They were the biggest and the best than other plane I've been on. :lol:
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:41 pm

RWA380 wrote:

If anything, AAG is taking the time to make sure that when they finalize, things will go smoothly & without any hiccups. AS has a longstanding history of making sound & well planned decisions.

Their one & only other acquisition, buying SI aka Jet America in the 90's for a few leased M80's & routes that AS didn't keep for long, not sure I understood the buyout, except I think SI may have been a bargain at the time they submitted to the buyout by AS.

Exactly like EA CO AS said, it's in the bag, no one is backing out, way too much has been invested already. I'm guessing at the time it's formally complete, AAG will be able to discuss what (if anything) had to be compromised & we should all get a better understanding of what will happen fleet & route wise, in the near term.

It should be an interesting week next week, as this is a holiday week & nothing much business wise is happening here in the US tomorrow, except people leaving work as soon as possible & millions of people flying around the country to celebrate the National holiday with their families & friends..


AAG also purchased Horizon (not sure if they were AAG at the time or "just" AS). DL was sniffing around SI at the time, whose primary assets were gates/slots at LGB and SNA.
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:49 pm

32andBelow wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Alaska is reportedly having a hard time with the Virgin America merger, what if it falls through? What's the chance it could?

Would B6 come back with another offer for VX? Would Delta take advantage of a quick gobble up of VX to grow significantly in California and give UA a run for its money in SFO?

Everything says its going to close within a week...

I think it is unlikely it will fall through (15-20%), but I do think if it were certain AS would not say "expects" to close.

If it did fall through, I think it is pretty obvious B6 would step in. On the face of it, you would think that deal would have less of a chance of approval, but if the issues are actually the code shares, then there is no reason to think B6 would not be approved. OTOH, that would mean that AS walked away because of the code shares and that seems unlikely.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 2:59 pm

Hard bargaining does not necessarily mean a deal in danger. The parties may be asking for more information and/or nailing down details on the last few percentages a a few or several contentious issues.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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phlsfo
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:27 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Alaska is reportedly having a hard time with the Virgin America merger


It's not, and it won't fall through. You'll just have to trust me on this.


Ditto this. Everything will go through very soon
 
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:35 pm

scoping2008 wrote:
There is ZERO chance that HA could purchase AS. On the other hand, AS could easily afford HA.


With AS having something like 20% of Hawaii-Mainland traffic, that is not a merger that would please the DOJ.
 
IPFreely
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:37 pm

questions wrote:
What is the evidence AS is having a hard time with the merger?


This acquisition has caused a bizarre phenomenon on this board. First one poster states something about the deal being in trouble. Then another poster uses that post as confirmation. Finally enilria announces that the trouble -- now assumed to be fact -- is all because of code shares. By the time they're done half the board believes Alaska has announced that the deal won't go through because of code shares when in fact it's all made up stuff.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:43 pm

Should we throw in the everlasting rumor that DL will buy AS?
 
Okie
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:48 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
It's not, and it won't fall through. You'll just have to trust me on this

Exactly EA CO AS.
I would be surprised if the DOJ did not announce today the 23rd of Nov before the Thanksgiving Holiday but next Friday Dec 2 at the latest.

The government has a lot of winding down, finishing up work and getting ready for a change of leadership right after the first of the year.

Okie
 
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:49 pm

IPFreely wrote:
Finally enilria announces that the trouble -- now assumed to be fact -- is all because of code shares. By the time they're done half the board believes Alaska has announced that the deal won't go through because of code shares when in fact it's all made up stuff.

enilria wrote:
I think it is unlikely it will fall through (15-20%)

That's some pretty twisted logic, since I said it was 80-85% chance going through.
IPFreely wrote:
the deal won't go through because of code shares when in fact it's all made up stuff.

So, YOU are right and all the media and their sources are wrong on this, but you blame ME as if I write for TheStreet, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal? Alaska themselves said they don't know the future of their code shares which implies even they have doubts. Get a grip... It's not only me saying the code shares are a problem, IT'S ONLY YOU SAYING THEY AREN'T.

What about your codeshare/frequent flier partners?
At this point it is too early to know any concrete details about the future of ours and Virgin America’s partnerships with other airlines.

https://blog.alaskaair.com/alaska-airli ... questions/

Alaska will have to terminate its code-sharing agreement with Delta Airlines (DAL) and limit its code-sharing arrangement with American Airlines (AAL) to markets where neither Virgin American nor Alaska have service. It was unclear whether the code-sharing with American will have to wound down completely over time.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1388426 ... erger.html

Still, analysts tell the WSJ that the Justice Department could request Alaska make concessions to win approval, such as changing code-share agreements with larger airlines.
https://consumerist.com/2016/10/21/what ... n-america/

The late-stage discussions included the possibility of Alaska jettisoning part of one or more code-sharing agreements it has with larger U.S. carriers as a concession for winning antitrust approval, one of the people said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-virgi ... SKBN12I02N
http://sfist.com/2016/11/08/alaska_airs ... in_has.php
 
ldvaviation
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:34 pm

IPFreely wrote:
This acquisition has caused a bizarre phenomenon on this board. First one poster states something about the deal being in trouble. Then another poster uses that post as confirmation. Finally enilria announces that the trouble -- now assumed to be fact -- is all because of code shares. By the time they're done half the board believes Alaska has announced that the deal won't go through because of code shares when in fact it's all made up stuff.


There is some validity to the codeshare trouble. There are news reports about it.

What enilria made up was the trouble with terminating the Delta codeshare because of the breakup fee or the unbreakable terms of the contract . There have been no news reports about that. All fake.
 
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:44 pm

ldvaviation wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
This acquisition has caused a bizarre phenomenon on this board. First one poster states something about the deal being in trouble. Then another poster uses that post as confirmation. Finally enilria announces that the trouble -- now assumed to be fact -- is all because of code shares. By the time they're done half the board believes Alaska has announced that the deal won't go through because of code shares when in fact it's all made up stuff.


There is some validity to the codeshare trouble. There are news reports about it.

What enilria made up was the trouble with terminating the Delta codeshare because of the breakup fee or the unbreakable terms of the contract . There have been no news reports about that. All fake.

It is a fact there is currently a significant cost to AS to end the DL code share. AS has said that in their quarterly calls when they have been repeatedly asked why they have not ended the arrangement. What we don't know is whether they have to pay that cost if the deal ends as a result of the AS/VS merger, and I have never said definitively either way as there is no way for me to know.

Others have said that AS would definitely not have to pay a break-up fee in that scenario, and I have disputed that because there is no way for them to know. It could be either.
 
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RWA380
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:07 am

OzarkD9S wrote:
RWA380 wrote:

If anything, AAG is taking the time to make sure that when they finalize, things will go smoothly & without any hiccups. AS has a longstanding history of making sound & well planned decisions.

Their one & only other acquisition, buying SI aka Jet America in the 90's for a few leased M80's & routes that AS didn't keep for long, not sure I understood the buyout, except I think SI may have been a bargain at the time they submitted to the buyout by AS.

Exactly like EA CO AS said, it's in the bag, no one is backing out, way too much has been invested already. I'm guessing at the time it's formally complete, AAG will be able to discuss what (if anything) had to be compromised & we should all get a better understanding of what will happen fleet & route wise, in the near term.

It should be an interesting week next week, as this is a holiday week & nothing much business wise is happening here in the US tomorrow, except people leaving work as soon as possible & millions of people flying around the country to celebrate the National holiday with their families & friends..


AAG also purchased Horizon (not sure if they were AAG at the time or "just" AS). DL was sniffing around SI at the time, whose primary assets were gates/slots at LGB and SNA.


You're correct Ozark, I was only thinking of carriers they absorbed & missed the most obvious acquisition they ever did. I do remember that the AS S. California footprint increased with the buyout of SI. But the S. California to Chicago stuff stopped almost immediately & Pacific Northwest - East stopped as well. Here is the last route map in 1987 listed on departed flights.

http://www.departedflights.com/SI060787.html
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:59 pm

RWA380 wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:

RWA380 wrote:

If anything, AAG is taking the time to make sure that when they finalize, things will go smoothly & without any hiccups. AS has a longstanding history of making sound & well planned decisions.

Their one & only other acquisition, buying SI aka Jet America in the 90's for a few leased M80's & routes that AS didn't keep for long, not sure I understood the buyout, except I think SI may have been a bargain at the time they submitted to the buyout by AS.

Exactly like EA CO AS said, it's in the bag, no one is backing out, way too much has been invested already. I'm guessing at the time it's formally complete, AAG will be able to discuss what (if anything) had to be compromised & we should all get a better understanding of what will happen fleet & route wise, in the near term.

It should be an interesting week next week, as this is a holiday week & nothing much business wise is happening here in the US tomorrow, except people leaving work as soon as possible & millions of people flying around the country to celebrate the National holiday with their families & friends..


AAG also purchased Horizon (not sure if they were AAG at the time or "just" AS). DL was sniffing around SI at the time, whose primary assets were gates/slots at LGB and SNA.


You're correct Ozark, I was only thinking of carriers they absorbed & missed the most obvious acquisition they ever did. I do remember that the AS S. California footprint increased with the buyout of SI. But the S. California to Chicago stuff stopped almost immediately & Pacific Northwest - East stopped as well. Here is the last route map in 1987 listed on departed flights.

http://www.departedflights.com/SI060787.html


You're also right about the SI system being dismantled quickly. Here's a brief rundown from AS's 1987 Annual Report:

http://www.departedflights.com/AS87reportp2.html
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
davescj
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:47 pm

I do wonder what will happen for flights to/from Alaska with the merger. As the link enilria posted, the code shares with DL and AA will be pared down (if not eliminated). Won't this create a vacuum for flights to/from Alaska? I always thought part of the reason AS had the code-shares was for the reach they could not do in the lower 48 and the traffic that DL or AA could not support alone into Alaska.
Can I have a mojito on this flight?
 
b6sea
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:52 pm

AS does a very brisk business in flights to Alaska all on their own, I think very little of this is connecting feed from partners. I seriously doubt there will be any change in Alaska flying either to-from the lower 48 or intra-Alaska. They basically print their own money from those routes.

The overwhelming majority of these flights are to SEA and the market from ANC-SEA is giant. It would be very hard to overstate how much O/D traffic there is between the two cities.

I'd also like to point out that there has been no official source that has said anything about codeshares going anywhere. So, it's still very possible that a merged AS/VX will continue to partner with AA and DL.
Last edited by b6sea on Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
keitherson
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sat Nov 26, 2016 8:57 pm

davescj wrote:
I do wonder what will happen for flights to/from Alaska with the merger. As the link enilria posted, the code shares with DL and AA will be pared down (if not eliminated). Won't this create a vacuum for flights to/from Alaska? I always thought part of the reason AS had the code-shares was for the reach they could not do in the lower 48 and the traffic that DL or AA could not support alone into Alaska.

Traffic from a state that couldn't even support one transpacific long-haul..

A lot of people WANT the merger to fail, so that is why they are reading the news and making interpretations beyond it.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:54 pm

IPFreely wrote:
questions wrote:
What is the evidence AS is having a hard time with the merger?


This acquisition has caused a bizarre phenomenon on this board. First one poster states something about the deal being in trouble. Then another poster uses that post as confirmation. Finally enilria announces that the trouble -- now assumed to be fact -- is all because of code shares. By the time they're done half the board believes Alaska has announced that the deal won't go through because of code shares when in fact it's all made up stuff.


Best synopsis of this entire deal...it's all speculation on everyone's part. For all we know it's already done and they're in discussion with the judge in San Fran as he wanted one week notice.
 
32andBelow
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:26 pm

davescj wrote:
I do wonder what will happen for flights to/from Alaska with the merger. As the link enilria posted, the code shares with DL and AA will be pared down (if not eliminated). Won't this create a vacuum for flights to/from Alaska? I always thought part of the reason AS had the code-shares was for the reach they could not do in the lower 48 and the traffic that DL or AA could not support alone into Alaska.

I dont think there will be any changes. Maybe add SFO/ANC on VX! Actually I wonder if they will use VX 321s to do midnight turns in the summer to increase capacity. AS had regional codeshare in Alaska with KS and 7H so they have feed to basically every village. People going east already have options on UA through DEN and ORD and DL through MSP and SLC (seasonally). Most people that leave alaska are going to SEA, the west coast, or Hawaii and AS has that locked down.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:31 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
questions wrote:
What is the evidence AS is having a hard time with the merger?


This acquisition has caused a bizarre phenomenon on this board. First one poster states something about the deal being in trouble. Then another poster uses that post as confirmation. Finally enilria announces that the trouble -- now assumed to be fact -- is all because of code shares. By the time they're done half the board believes Alaska has announced that the deal won't go through because of code shares when in fact it's all made up stuff.


Best synopsis of this entire deal...it's all speculation on everyone's part. For all we know it's already done and they're in discussion with the judge in San Fran as he wanted one week notice.


And then you could read the posts here the opposite way too. Everyone is so confident in what is going to happen and gets so sensitive at the slightest hint of skepticism that they completely overact to any posts they don't like. Either way works since none of these situations are black and white.
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sat Nov 26, 2016 10:54 pm

Since Jet America was mentioned, I thought I'd provide a link of their route map that was included on an Alaska Airlines timetable from December, 1986.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PO8kbTAhQ9Q/U ... a_0003.jpg
 
atcpeter
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:34 pm

Why did you guys make me spend five minutes skimming through this thread thinking there was some actual news on a holiday week? Jeez.

I like 11725Flyer's route map link, though.

Put a sock in the rest of it until we hear something of substance.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 2:14 am

11725Flyer wrote:
Since Jet America was mentioned, I thought I'd provide a link of their route map that was included on an Alaska Airlines timetable from December, 1986.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PO8kbTAhQ9Q/U ... a_0003.jpg


That route map shows JetAmerica flying out of 'Los Angeles International'...as far as I remember, they only operated out of LGB. Anyone remember differently?
 
wedgetail737
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:09 am

hiflyeras wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:
Since Jet America was mentioned, I thought I'd provide a link of their route map that was included on an Alaska Airlines timetable from December, 1986.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PO8kbTAhQ9Q/U ... a_0003.jpg


That route map shows JetAmerica flying out of 'Los Angeles International'...as far as I remember, they only operated out of LGB. Anyone remember differently?


I think that route map was the last routes that Jet America flew before being officially swallowed by AS. I remember SI being based in LGB. They were the low-cost carrier between OAK-ORD with MD-80's. They had up to 5X daily flights. They were a cool airline.
 
wenders825
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:18 am

32andBelow wrote:
davescj wrote:
I do wonder what will happen for flights to/from Alaska with the merger. As the link enilria posted, the code shares with DL and AA will be pared down (if not eliminated). Won't this create a vacuum for flights to/from Alaska? I always thought part of the reason AS had the code-shares was for the reach they could not do in the lower 48 and the traffic that DL or AA could not support alone into Alaska.

I dont think there will be any changes. Maybe add SFO/ANC on VX! Actually I wonder if they will use VX 321s to do midnight turns in the summer to increase capacity. AS had regional codeshare in Alaska with KS and 7H so they have feed to basically every village. People going east already have options on UA through DEN and ORD and DL through MSP and SLC (seasonally). Most people that leave alaska are going to SEA, the west coast, or Hawaii and AS has that locked down.

almost anything else not reached from the west coast/SEA/Hawaii, AS has ANC-ORD and then feed to AA from there.
 
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RWA380
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 8:10 am

11725Flyer wrote:
Since Jet America was mentioned, I thought I'd provide a link of their route map that was included on an Alaska Airlines timetable from December, 1986.


That was likely the time, much like now, between the announcement & the final decree coming forth. Neat share, thanks!

OzarkD9S wrote:
RWA380 wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:

AAG also purchased Horizon (not sure if they were AAG at the time or "just" AS). DL was sniffing around SI at the time, whose primary assets were gates/slots at LGB and SNA.


You're correct Ozark, I was only thinking of carriers they absorbed & missed the most obvious acquisition they ever did. I do remember that the AS S. California footprint increased with the buyout of SI. But the S. California to Chicago stuff stopped almost immediately & Pacific Northwest - East stopped as well. Here is the last route map in 1987 listed on departed flights.

http://www.departedflights.com/SI060787.html


You're also right about the SI system being dismantled quickly. Here's a brief rundown from AS's 1987 Annual Report:

http://www.departedflights.com/AS87reportp2.html


Wow, not much more than a footnote. It seems like you said it was an easy & quick buyout with some new planes & access to LGB & SNA.
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PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:14 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
IPFreely wrote:

This acquisition has caused a bizarre phenomenon on this board. First one poster states something about the deal being in trouble. Then another poster uses that post as confirmation. Finally enilria announces that the trouble -- now assumed to be fact -- is all because of code shares. By the time they're done half the board believes Alaska has announced that the deal won't go through because of code shares when in fact it's all made up stuff.


Best synopsis of this entire deal...it's all speculation on everyone's part. For all we know it's already done and they're in discussion with the judge in San Fran as he wanted one week notice.


And then you could read the posts here the opposite way too. Everyone is so confident in what is going to happen and gets so sensitive at the slightest hint of skepticism that they completely overact to any posts they don't like. Either way works since none of these situations are black and white.


I don't have a crystal ball. I do, however, belong to a forum where an "insider" has basically implied that it's a done deal. That's not being sensitive - it's just reading. When someone with knowledge says that but other people keep droning on about other stuff, it gets a little awkward.

I have no dog in the fight - I just choose to give more weight to the insider's take than that of those on the outside who are simply pondering what-if's. :-)
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
IPFreely
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:00 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
I don't have a crystal ball. I do, however, belong to a forum where an "insider" has basically implied that it's a done deal.


We have the same situation here. One poster -- EA CO AS -- has a long track record of providing accurate information regarding Alaska. He has posted many times that it's a done deal and that all the speculation is wrong. And we have two other posters with no track record who keep trying to refute this: usxguy, who repeatedly posted that AS themselves announced code shares were a problem before disappearing after being exposed as dishonest, and enilria, who for some reason is obsessed with code shares. Bizarre, yes, but it sounds like it will soon be a done deal.

I concur on listening to your insider. I will believe the poster with a long proven track record instead of believing a liar or a code-share maniac.
 
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RWA380
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:33 am

Follow what EA CO AS says, it's the most accurate info you will get. I have my own "insider" the messages are the same, it's done & we won't be waiting long for answers to several of the questions that have been raised. Patience isn't anyone strong suit here & many enjoy the banter of guessing with no abandon to pass the time, until some real news is released. No harm, but when it comes to facts, it's good to know who you can trust in these threads.
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 4:46 am

IPFreely wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I don't have a crystal ball. I do, however, belong to a forum where an "insider" has basically implied that it's a done deal.


We have the same situation here. One poster -- EA CO AS -- has a long track record of providing accurate information regarding Alaska. He has posted many times that it's a done deal and that all the speculation is wrong. And we have two other posters with no track record who keep trying to refute this: usxguy, who repeatedly posted that AS themselves announced code shares were a problem before disappearing after being exposed as dishonest, and enilria, who for some reason is obsessed with code shares. Bizarre, yes, but it sounds like it will soon be a done deal.

I concur on listening to your insider. I will believe the poster with a long proven track record instead of believing a liar or a code-share maniac.


1. This was the forum, and EA CO AS was the poster, that I was referring to.
2. In the couple of weeks since he last posted on this topic, things may have changed. It wouldn't be the first time that last minute negotiating took a turn for the worse.
3. In the interim, it's the best we've got to go on.
4. We may be interpreting some of his comments incorrectly or not completely accurately - we'll see.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
gmcc
Posts: 355
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:15 pm

Some news which points to LAWA getting ready for the merger. The Dec 1 board meeting has item 1 on the agenda.

"RESOLUTION NO. - Assignment from Virgin America Inc. to Alaska Air Group, Inc. and Alpine Acquisition Corp.: Covering Terminal Facilities Lease and License Agreement LAA-8819 and Non-Exclusive Air Carrier Operating Permit LAA-8745 at Los Angeles International Airport; contingent upon the Department of Justice approval of the proposed merger"

It has the standard contingent upon the Department of Justice approval disclaimer, however, if LAX is getting their lease ducks in a row it might imply that some news is pending.

In a side note the board is also getting terminal 1.5 going with a start date in June 2017 and a completion date in July 2019.
 
b6sea
Posts: 569
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:44 pm

Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 3:17 am

RWA380 wrote:
Follow what EA CO AS says, it's the most accurate info you will get. I have my own "insider" the messages are the same, it's done & we won't be waiting long for answers to several of the questions that have been raised. Patience isn't anyone strong suit here & many enjoy the banter of guessing with no abandon to pass the time, until some real news is released. No harm, but when it comes to facts, it's good to know who you can trust in these threads.



Haha, I also have an "insider" who has pretty much said exactly what EA CO AS says both now and in the past, and this "insider" is in a position to know such things (whether they would tell me is another story). Agree completely with everything said.
 
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RWA380
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:26 am

b6sea wrote:
RWA380 wrote:
Follow what EA CO AS says, it's the most accurate info you will get. I have my own "insider" the messages are the same, it's done & we won't be waiting long for answers to several of the questions that have been raised. Patience isn't anyone strong suit here & many enjoy the banter of guessing with no abandon to pass the time, until some real news is released. No harm, but when it comes to facts, it's good to know who you can trust in these threads.



Haha, I also have an "insider" who has pretty much said exactly what EA CO AS says both now and in the past, and this "insider" is in a position to know such things (whether they would tell me is another story). Agree completely with everything said.


This is the one area that I get to have an advantage over the average armchair CEO. I have overstepped my bounds & my friend called me out, but it doesn't mean he won't tell me things. But I now just make vague references to what I know, just like my comment about EA CO AS. Since my "insider" says many of the same exact things for years, I'm not worried that my info is false.

I went out on a ledge when the US - Cuba appointments were about ready to be filed for. I stated 5 different times, AS would only apply from LAX to HAV, I was told that would be foolish, I was foolish, blah, blah, blah. By the loudest mouths on this board. Right after the applications were in, I went back & took each & every quote where I stated that AS would only apply from LAX & all the replies that refuted that claim, not one loud mouth replied back, because they were wrong, but that day I stopped saying what I really know & leave details omitted on purpose.

This also draws out the people who insist that unless you have a link from a reputable news site, you are a liar & spreading mis information. When you bring it to their attention after the announcement is made, thay ignore you. So another reason why I stopped sharing what I know & just elude.
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b6sea
Posts: 569
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:46 pm

RWA380 wrote:

This is the one area that I get to have an advantage over the average armchair CEO. I have overstepped my bounds & my friend called me out, but it doesn't mean he won't tell me things. But I now just make vague references to what I know, just like my comment about EA CO AS. Since my "insider" says many of the same exact things for years, I'm not worried that my info is false.

I went out on a ledge when the US - Cuba appointments were about ready to be filed for. I stated 5 different times, AS would only apply from LAX to HAV, I was told that would be foolish, I was foolish, blah, blah, blah. By the loudest mouths on this board. Right after the applications were in, I went back & took each & every quote where I stated that AS would only apply from LAX & all the replies that refuted that claim, not one loud mouth replied back, because they were wrong, but that day I stopped saying what I really know & leave details omitted on purpose.

This also draws out the people who insist that unless you have a link from a reputable news site, you are a liar & spreading mis information. When you bring it to their attention after the announcement is made, thay ignore you. So another reason why I stopped sharing what I know & just elude.


I definitely understand the frustration. I'll also admit sometimes I'm the "reputable source police" (at least in my own head) because of how many things get brought up here that are baseless or are analysts' speculation. It seems like the AS/VX merger has really brought that out in people, especially the willingness to forget that analysts do speculate.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:53 pm

b6sea wrote:
RWA380 wrote:

This is the one area that I get to have an advantage over the average armchair CEO. I have overstepped my bounds & my friend called me out, but it doesn't mean he won't tell me things. But I now just make vague references to what I know, just like my comment about EA CO AS. Since my "insider" says many of the same exact things for years, I'm not worried that my info is false.

I went out on a ledge when the US - Cuba appointments were about ready to be filed for. I stated 5 different times, AS would only apply from LAX to HAV, I was told that would be foolish, I was foolish, blah, blah, blah. By the loudest mouths on this board. Right after the applications were in, I went back & took each & every quote where I stated that AS would only apply from LAX & all the replies that refuted that claim, not one loud mouth replied back, because they were wrong, but that day I stopped saying what I really know & leave details omitted on purpose.

This also draws out the people who insist that unless you have a link from a reputable news site, you are a liar & spreading mis information. When you bring it to their attention after the announcement is made, thay ignore you. So another reason why I stopped sharing what I know & just elude.


I definitely understand the frustration. I'll also admit sometimes I'm the "reputable source police" (at least in my own head) because of how many things get brought up here that are baseless or are analysts' speculation. It seems like the AS/VX merger has really brought that out in people, especially the willingness to forget that analysts do speculate.


That's where the old Respect Rating was helpful. Also, just getting to know poster's history over time. We are flying a bit more blind in that regard these days.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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RWA380
Posts: 5747
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:59 am

b6sea wrote:
RWA380 wrote:

This is the one area that I get to have an advantage over the average armchair CEO. I have overstepped my bounds & my friend called me out, but it doesn't mean he won't tell me things. But I now just make vague references to what I know, just like my comment about EA CO AS. Since my "insider" says many of the same exact things for years, I'm not worried that my info is false.

I went out on a ledge when the US - Cuba appointments were about ready to be filed for. I stated 5 different times, AS would only apply from LAX to HAV, I was told that would be foolish, I was foolish, blah, blah, blah. By the loudest mouths on this board. Right after the applications were in, I went back & took each & every quote where I stated that AS would only apply from LAX & all the replies that refuted that claim, not one loud mouth replied back, because they were wrong, but that day I stopped saying what I really know & leave details omitted on purpose.

This also draws out the people who insist that unless you have a link from a reputable news site, you are a liar & spreading mis information. When you bring it to their attention after the announcement is made, thay ignore you. So another reason why I stopped sharing what I know & just elude.


I definitely understand the frustration. I'll also admit sometimes I'm the "reputable source police" (at least in my own head) because of how many things get brought up here that are baseless or are analysts' speculation. It seems like the AS/VX merger has really brought that out in people, especially the willingness to forget that analysts do speculate.


No I get it, it's knowing who you are dealing with, a guy with a ten year+ membership is more likely to get the sublties of our community than those who are newer. This site has had some wicked little hair pulling fights between members & it's the childish of the bunch the makes the most noise.

I feel the saddest thing is when someone like EA CO AS states his 2 cents, his opinions are based in facts. I have learned this from watching his replies & threads. I don't know everyone that well, but this member participates in many of the same threads I do regarding AS & AAG.

But yet he gets beat around just like I used to & this board ends up loosing out because good people who do know, get treated like a bastard step child. It sucks, but like I said, I have just stopped providing intel & it's fun to watch people stabbing at guesses, that are so far off base, it makes me laugh.

Which comes full circle & I understand fully why we don't accept peoples word for anything, any longer. Just wait things are going to happen & new info, including fleet strategies, will be coming soon.
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JetAmericaS80
Posts: 53
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:31 am

And the end of the month arrives, and so slips another (albeit unofficial) deadline...

I wonder how much money is being lost on 493 sitting static in VCV?
The Best Buy in the Sky, Treat yourself to Jet America!
 
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11725Flyer
Posts: 1399
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 4:51 pm

Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:56 am

JetAmericaS80 wrote:
And the end of the month arrives, and so slips another (albeit unofficial) deadline...

I wonder how much money is being lost on 493 sitting static in VCV?


I think we have a few "insiders" that can help answer that question.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:36 am

JetAmericaS80 wrote:
And the end of the month arrives, and so slips another (albeit unofficial) deadline...

I wonder how much money is being lost on 493 sitting static in VCV?


I can't imagine it's cheap. This might go down as another SNAYVR error in judgment. I'd give it a few more days, but by Monday if things haven't gelled then I'd say it's time to question parking an aircraft for that length of time.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
chrisair
Posts: 2163
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Thu Dec 01, 2016 8:18 am

JetAmericaS80 wrote:
I wonder how much money is being lost on 493 sitting static in VCV?


One would hope they'd take this opportunity and get that plane reconfigured with the new seating arrangement and the ATG4 mod (if it doesn't have it already)...
 
QXAS
Posts: 366
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:21 am

Pardon my ignorance, what are the changes to the cabin that AS is making in the near future? Will it apply to only the 800, 900 and 900er fleets, or will the -700s also get upgraded?
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
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enilria
Posts: 10301
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Re: What if AS/VX falls through?

Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:27 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Alaska is reportedly having a hard time with the Virgin America merger, what if it falls through? What's the chance it could?

Would B6 come back with another offer for VX? Would Delta take advantage of a quick gobble up of VX to grow significantly in California and give UA a run for its money in SFO?

Since A) Everybody clearly loves it when I speculate about the merger and B) they have missed another of their own deadlines...I think there is a good chance AS has decided to roll the dice and wait for Trump to see if they can get by with less givebacks. Opinions? Wouldn't it be dumb to go forward with a month left under Obama?

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