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dirk88
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Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 4:52 pm

The Azores are located about 1400 kilometers west of Portugal, in the Atlantic Ocean. Azores Airlines (formerly SATA) operates flights to a very limited number of destinations in the Americas, mostly serving OD traffic.

For Northern-Europe - East Coast connections, it could probably never compete with Iceland, but the main airport (Ponta Delgada) seems ideally located for European traffic to Florida/The Caribbean, southern Europe traffic to the US & Canada, and European traffic to South America. Also, just like Iceland, the Azores are a tourist destination, which could provide multiple-day layovers in a similar way as WOW is offering.

If not Azores Airlines, Nowadays, Ryanair has a small base in Ponta Delgada, and has been talking about transatlantic for ages. They can't get the longhaul aircraft required for such operation, but would the Azores be close enough to operate to the Americas with more easily available aircraft? Obviously they would need to start offering connecting flights to make this possible. Would it be possible to do something similar like WOW from the azores?
Last edited by dirk88 on Sun Nov 27, 2016 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
finnishway
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 5:13 pm

I don't know about Azores, but Norwegian has planned something similar to Keflavik's model from the Canary Islands. I remember seeing some sort of planned routes map from Norwegian that shows at least one of the Canary Islands as a longhaul base for TATL flights.

But TATL routes that go near Iceland & Greenland have alternatives on the route. From Azores across the Atlantic you would need much greater ETOPS than B737 has so for example Ryanair wouldn't be able to fly TATL from Azores with their fleet.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 5:51 pm

Azores Airlines would have to significantly improve its reliability before this idea would work.
 
lancelot07
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 5:52 pm

1.) The Azores are not such a large tourist destination.
2.) Ryanair could go across the Atlantic from Dublin or Shannon.
 
Varsity1
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 5:53 pm

Possible but it won't be as efficient as KEF. Iceland is nearly direct between N. America and Europe.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 5:54 pm

How much traffic would ever fly over this area? With winds/minimum time tracks there would need to be a massive increase in traffic flow for it to ever approach what Iceland offers geographically. Especially concerning westbound traffic where flights route way north to avoid winds despite increased great circle mileage.
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sierra3tango
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:54 pm

Could be scissor type hub with Europe to Caribbean/ South American mixed in with some Africa/ North America not to mention the OP routings.
More like the Hawaiian islands route structures

Doubt the infrastructure exists, it would cost a fortune to build. But using the EK metric of xxx million / billion living within 7 hours flying time - it would tick quite a few boxes
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 7:50 pm

From Azores to east coast like IAD/JFK are almost as far away as from KEF to those detinations so it would still need 752 or above to build a network from there to the US
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 8:32 pm

Nearby countries won't let those flights lsnd i guess. Plus SC Sea is relatively small that even prop can cross, and ASEAN seems to be making an open sky agreement.
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 8:59 pm

The 737 does have the range to reach America from the Azores, but it's not qualified to do so unless ETOPS modified and certified. This has to do with the fact that there are no divertion airports available along the route, there's only sea. Maybe Bermuda could serve as a divertion airport on some routes, but even for a Ponta Delgada - Bermuda flight you'd need ETOPS.

I do however know that Ponta Delgada is a divertion airport for several transatlantic flights. TUI airlines Netherlands once had a 787 divert to there, it was flying Amsterdam - Curacao when something happened halfway across the ocean and they had to divert.
 
KaiTak747
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:14 pm

An important point to make is that it is very difficult to build a hub without a decent amount of O&D traffic, I can't think of any.

Building a decent network without O&D and with limited connections would be very unprofitable. Connecting traffic is also lower yielding.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:33 pm

I have always wondered why FSP (St. Pierre) does not get more attention. For a European low cost operation, it would allow them to have a hub in North America without having to deal with a hub in a foreign country. And most destinations in North America could be served with smaller aircraft, meaning they can offer service to a slew of smaller US cities economically. Tie that in with the potential to basically control the airport (additional revenue) plus a likelihood that the community is willing to throw a lot of support in the direction of the airline.
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BostonBeau
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:35 pm

KEF is almost exactly on the great circle route from the USA to Europe. PDL is not. A flight BOS-KEF-CDG is about 200 miles shorter than BOS-PDL-CDG. Maybe as someone suggested between the Caribbean/South America and Europe, but not North America-Europe.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:40 pm

sierra3tango wrote:
Doubt the infrastructure exists, it would cost a fortune to build. But using the EK metric of xxx million / billion living within 7 hours flying time - it would tick quite a few boxes


The ultimate determinant of any value, of any of those measures - is that of economic health/prosperity/strength. As this is the more major complement of the argeument - I brought it first to demonstrat that I agree with your overall assessment - that cost would be an issue.

That though, tailors itself well to an LCC type of operation. Low cost infrastructural changes (allowing more remote stand parking/boarding) and LCC operation for the airlines, to maximize upon their benefits (tapping into key markets in Portugal/Europe) - and pass those savings on as compensation for the passengers choosing the stop in the Azores. The terminal too, would have to be redesigned/renovated - and better allow transit/'commerical experiences' at the airport).

Now, if done well - and with the right fiscal management - it would then have to, essentially be 'sold' to investors. If, as a last resort, approved via loan through the federal government of Portugal, then it would add to the tax burden - however it would ultimately create jobs on the Island as well.

The case could be made that the macro and micro economic repercussions for the island could be big, and a question would rely upon whether the islands themselves would be receptive to more visitors/thus expand their tourism industry, or if they wish to essentially 'isolate' the experience to the airport. This could/should be better unpacked by someone much better versed in the local culture and/or how a current person living in the Azores, would view expansion. To unpack that a little - would the average person living in the Azores today, be willing to essentially pay more in taxes, to create an experience for connecting passengers, from what is likely to be an LCC operation, to not currently prosperous economies?

That said - this will be in competition to (for the benefits and the risks) TAP, TAP/UA and TAP/B6 (on anything to North America), TAP/Azul on anything to Brazil, and TAP as well as local carriers on African destinations. This all then hinges, on the economies of all of these regions doing well - and doing so well that TAP can afford a premium, and further a premium 'fat' enough for this new LCC operation to eat into. So much to do, so much risk, so little money to do it with.
sierra3tango wrote:
Could be scissor type hub with Europe to Caribbean/ South American mixed in with some Africa/ North America not to mention the OP routings.


Again, that's a big ask - economically.

Consider the most likely, lowest-risk possibility for their needs;

Adding A321NEOLR's, with a 4100NM range would still exclude some of the richest markets to tap into anyway;

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=4100nm%40PDL

Lowest risk - because it would be an add on, to their current strategy;
http://ch-aviation.com/portal/news/4951 ... 1neo-plans

Sure, it might necessitate an add-on A330 order (which is fun to consider/play with), but again - it would be so heavily predicated on cost management, and market health. It's a tough sell, even with the best of equipment, and decent markets to work with.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:25 pm

Can someone give an example of an LCC helping build an airport ? It was my impression that LCCs favored disused airports desperate for flights, and even ready to pay for them.

cloudboy wrote:
I have always wondered why FSP (St. Pierre) does not get more attention. For a European low cost operation, it would allow them to have a hub in North America without having to deal with a hub in a foreign country. And most destinations in North America could be served with smaller aircraft, meaning they can offer service to a slew of smaller US cities economically. Tie that in with the potential to basically control the airport (additional revenue) plus a likelihood that the community is willing to throw a lot of support in the direction of the airline.


Saint Pierre et Miquelon has only a population of 6000. It is very presumptuous to assume they would cheer such a project.
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ryan78
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:28 pm

cloudboy wrote:
I have always wondered why FSP (St. Pierre) does not get more attention. For a European low cost operation, it would allow them to have a hub in North America without having to deal with a hub in a foreign country. And most destinations in North America could be served with smaller aircraft, meaning they can offer service to a slew of smaller US cities economically. Tie that in with the potential to basically control the airport (additional revenue) plus a likelihood that the community is willing to throw a lot of support in the direction of the airline.


Probably because St. Pierre only has an 1800m runway and a population of about 6000 people. Granted the 737 could get out of that runway no problem on shorter flights, it would have a hard time taking off with a full load of fuel to jump across the pond. Plus winter's can be harsh and the airport and town infrastructure is nowhere near where it would need to be for these kind of flights to happen.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 2:14 am

KaiTak747 wrote:
An important point to make is that it is very difficult to build a hub without a decent amount of O&D traffic, I can't think of any.

Building a decent network without O&D and with limited connections would be very unprofitable. Connecting traffic is also lower yielding.


Yes, thus my Spratly Island post. People seem to forget that DXB has been an important trading location long before the airlines came along.

BostonBeau wrote:
KEF is almost exactly on the great circle route from the USA to Europe. PDL is not. A flight BOS-KEF-CDG is about 200 miles shorter than BOS-PDL-CDG. Maybe as someone suggested between the Caribbean/South America and Europe, but not North America-Europe.


KEF is better than PDL, but keep in mind the tracks that actually get flown aren't the end-to-end great circle routes.

They look a lot like:

Image
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lavalampluva
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:12 am

I just can't see North America being drawn to the Azores. That's more of a playground for Europeans.
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:38 am

Revelation wrote:
KaiTak747 wrote:
An important point to make is that it is very difficult to build a hub without a decent amount of O&D traffic, I can't think of any.

Building a decent network without O&D and with limited connections would be very unprofitable. Connecting traffic is also lower yielding.


Yes, thus my Spratly Island post. People seem to forget that DXB has been an important trading location long before the airlines came along.

BostonBeau wrote:
KEF is almost exactly on the great circle route from the USA to Europe. PDL is not. A flight BOS-KEF-CDG is about 200 miles shorter than BOS-PDL-CDG. Maybe as someone suggested between the Caribbean/South America and Europe, but not North America-Europe.


KEF is better than PDL, but keep in mind the tracks that actually get flown aren't the end-to-end great circle routes.

They look a lot like:

Image

I feel like this discussion is neglecting the potential market for fresh fish exports from the Azores to North America... :duck:

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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:59 am

finnishway wrote:

But TATL routes that go near Iceland & Greenland have alternatives on the route. From Azores across the Atlantic you would need much greater ETOPS than B737 has so for example Ryanair wouldn't be able to fly TATL from Azores with their fleet.


Why couldnt the B737 do an ETOPS 180 flight TATL from the Azores? Surely, TER/BDA/YQX/YJT/YHZ would be within the 180 minute range. You could even probably do a 120 ETOPS in that area with those same airports as alternates. The B737 does LAX-Hawaii ETOPS 180 using ITO/SFO/LAX/KOA as the ETOPS 180 alternates. The distances from TER across the Atlantic wouldnt be any worse than that.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 4:32 am

The largest TransAtlantic flows are from Northern Europe to NE United States. Heading south to the Azores to head north again makes no sense.
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TC957
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 8:29 am

I think Travel Service operates from Eastern Europe to the Caribbean via the Azores with their 738's. I'm sure I've seen one at MBJ and no, it wasn't a Sunwing service.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 9:29 am

[quote="Revelation"][quote="KaiTak747"]An important point to make is that it is very difficult to build a hub without a decent amount of O&D traffic, I can't think of any.

People seem to forget that DXB has been an important trading location long before the airlines came along.

Not really in the 70s there was very little there at all. Sharjah had more trade but not that much, in those days SHJ was the bigger / richer place. Things changed in about '84 when SHJ banned booze & many moved to DXB. That coupled with the Dubaians 'long view' on building infrastructure turned the tables. But neither had much O&D traffic & not a lot to attract it then, they were basically fuel stops on the way to somewhere else, which did take on a few pax.
DXB developed itself (using some limited oil money) in a myriad of ways, which included EK; any central Atlantic hub (maybe Madeira or Tenerife would be better) would have to view economic development in the whole & then find the money to pay for it.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:10 pm

One advantage of the KEF carriers is the ability to rotate the same equipment through Europe and N America in 24 hours. This limits the optimal range in either direction although there are a few routes that break that mould. PDL is more limited on both sides of the Atlantic when looking at similar distances. Compared to KEF, PDL misses out on all of Scandinavia, Germany, The Netherlands and Scotland but gains Spain, Portugal and the African coast down to Senegal.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:14 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
KaiTak747 wrote:
An important point to make is that it is very difficult to build a hub without a decent amount of O&D traffic, I can't think of any.

Building a decent network without O&D and with limited connections would be very unprofitable. Connecting traffic is also lower yielding.


Yes, thus my Spratly Island post. People seem to forget that DXB has been an important trading location long before the airlines came along.

BostonBeau wrote:
KEF is almost exactly on the great circle route from the USA to Europe. PDL is not. A flight BOS-KEF-CDG is about 200 miles shorter than BOS-PDL-CDG. Maybe as someone suggested between the Caribbean/South America and Europe, but not North America-Europe.


KEF is better than PDL, but keep in mind the tracks that actually get flown aren't the end-to-end great circle routes.

They look a lot like:

Image

I feel like this discussion is neglecting the potential market for fresh fish exports from the Azores to North America... :duck:

V/F


If the Azores would be a serious fishing and fish processing nation. Not every island in the ocean is a big fishing nation. It is possible to look at every island in the oceans of the world and speculate about replicating KEF.

But KEF and first Icelandic Airlines and than Icelandair have a long tradition of flying passengers between Europe and the northern North America. Icelandic Airlines being the pioneer of low fares over the Atlantic as a non IATA operation. The only European Nation given landing rights to this operation was Luxembourg at Findel Airport, as Luxembourg had no national airline to protect. At other European airports LL had to operate according to the IATA fare structure. LL, at that tome practically the national airline of Luxembourg, was also one of the founders of both Cargolux and Luxair.

Today 28 passenger airlines fly from and to Keflavík and there are two airlines FI and WW doing this KEF Europe to Northern North America operation. You do not start a thing just like that, it needs time to build it up.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:25 pm

sierra3tango wrote:
Revelation wrote:
KaiTak747 wrote:
An important point to make is that it is very difficult to build a hub without a decent amount of O&D traffic, I can't think of any.

People seem to forget that DXB has been an important trading location long before the airlines came along.

Not really in the 70s there was very little there at all. Sharjah had more trade but not that much, in those days SHJ was the bigger / richer place. Things changed in about '84 when SHJ banned booze & many moved to DXB. That coupled with the Dubaians 'long view' on building infrastructure turned the tables. But neither had much O&D traffic & not a lot to attract it then, they were basically fuel stops on the way to somewhere else, which did take on a few pax.
DXB developed itself (using some limited oil money) in a myriad of ways, which included EK; any central Atlantic hub (maybe Madeira or Tenerife would be better) would have to view economic development in the whole & then find the money to pay for it.



I think he was referring to Dubai rather than DXB as being an important trading location long before the airlines came along, Dubai creek was crowded with traditional Dhows long before any airport was built trading within the Persian Gulf, India and the sub continent, the Far East, East and South Africa, Indian Ocean islands, etc.

Now days the amount of traditional Dhows at Dubai has diminished but the new port with its container terminal has replaced the Creek which is now more of a tourist attraction.

Other than being a major hub airport with loads of connecting flights DXB heritage stems from its trading days from Dubai Creek.
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airbazar
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:29 pm

lancelot07 wrote:
1.) The Azores are not such a large tourist destination.

Not yet, but neither is Iceland. Iceland tourist numbers are inflated by people buying cheap TATL tickets on Iceland Air and spending a night or 2 while in transit.
The Azores suffered from government imposed "airline embargo" for many years but the market has just been liberalized 2 years ago. It is growing fast, not just from Europe but from the U.S. as well.
http://www.travelpulse.com/news/destina ... ation.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... re-tourism
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/desti ... to-Hawaii/
https://www.lonelyplanet.com/portugal/t ... -adventure
Not only has SATA expanded their offering from the U.S., significantly but the talk is that TP is trying to get B6 to fly to the Azores and combine with TP to do exactly what FI is doing at KEF.

Varsity1 wrote:
Possible but it won't be as efficient as KEF. Iceland is nearly direct between N. America and Europe.

If you look at most routes between the East Coast of the U.S. and Continental Europe, the deviation for KEF is not that much different than it is for PDL. People severely underestimate how far north KEF is.

BostonBeau wrote:
KEF is almost exactly on the great circle route from the USA to Europe. PDL is not. A flight BOS-KEF-CDG is about 200 miles shorter than BOS-PDL-CDG. Maybe as someone suggested between the Caribbean/South America and Europe, but not North America-Europe.

I think you need a map :) KEF is nowhere near that GC route and depending on winds and what specific route the airline takes, PDL might even be closer. Even using your example, 200nm is insignificant. See all the blue in the map posted in reply #17.

Rajahdhani wrote:
The ultimate determinant of any value, of any of those measures - is that of economic health/prosperity/strength.

Bingo! Geographic location in this day and age has little to do with it. The Azores and Portugal in general have always been a relatively poor European country. The Azores face a bigger challenge which is the lack of an airport and an airline that could replicate what KEF does. PDL is little more than a small brick building with a runway. Not only do they lack the resources to build something bigger, but they also lack the land required to build it on. To build an airport in PDL that would approach even the small scale of KEF would be a daunting endeavor, both economically and physical. To put it in simple terms: There aren't enough seats inside the transit area for the 200 passengers that an A310 carries.

Having said all of that, The A321LR will allow TP to do what FI and WOW are doing, via their LIS hub. If the TP/B6 partnership for the Azores moves ahead, this will have a bigger impact on U.S.-Portugal/Spain traffic than on U.S.-Europe traffic.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:11 am

airbazar wrote:
lancelot07 wrote:
If you look at most routes between the East Coast of the U.S. and Continental Europe, the deviation for KEF is not that much different than it is for PDL. People severely underestimate how far north KEF is.


KEF is usually a less of a detour from Western Europe to the Northeastern US than PDL. CDG to JFK adds 9.7% to GC distance by going through KEF but 14.6% going through PDL. This is not insignificant in this business, especially when the goal is to use narrowbody economics to stay competitive with the big boys. Most routes are more favorable to KEF than this. AMS to ORD adds 2.2% to the GC distance through KEF but 22.0% through PDL. If there is a niche for PDL to carve out for itself, it overlaps very little with KEF.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 12:52 pm

hvusslax wrote:
KEF is usually a less of a detour from Western Europe to the Northeastern US than PDL. CDG to JFK adds 9.7% to GC distance by going through KEF but 14.6% going through PDL. This is not insignificant in this business, especially when the goal is to use narrowbody economics to stay competitive with the big boys.

A 5% difference is insignificant but the important thing to remember is that the TATL routes don't always follow GC. I took the liberty of adding KEF and PDL to the map posted above: Look at how much closed PDL is to the thick blue paths.
Image
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 1:31 pm

airbazar wrote:
hvusslax wrote:
KEF is usually a less of a detour from Western Europe to the Northeastern US than PDL. CDG to JFK adds 9.7% to GC distance by going through KEF but 14.6% going through PDL. This is not insignificant in this business, especially when the goal is to use narrowbody economics to stay competitive with the big boys.

A 5% difference is insignificant but the important thing to remember is that the TATL routes don't always follow GC. I took the liberty of adding KEF and PDL to the map posted above: Look at how much closed PDL is to the thick blue paths.
Image


Those are the tracks on one day and, as many people will know, the tracks are set each day based on forecast wind patterns. They are often more northerly than depicted in the example and of course a Mercator projection, as in the map shown, misrepresents the relative distances involved.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 1:39 pm

PDL would work very well for Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, and even Germany and Benelux (i.e. Ryanair is starting soon Frankfurt Hahn - Ponta Delgada).

Scandinavia is a smaller market than PT/ES/IT/FR (and those Southern European countries are more "holiday-oriented" markets from the US, so it suits better the low cost model), so it PDL could work even better than KEF.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 2:03 pm

iRISH251 wrote:
Those are the tracks on one day and, as many people will know, the tracks are set each day based on forecast wind patterns. They are often more northerly than depicted in the example and of course a Mercator projection, as in the map shown, misrepresents the relative distances involved.


The main point I was making is that while KEF is in a pretty favorable geographic location it isn't as ideal/perfect as a simple great circle path would suggest, because winds can and do shift the flight paths.
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:05 pm

Iceland really should be 1000 km further south.
 
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Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:33 pm

BostonBeau wrote:
Maybe as someone suggested between the Caribbean/South America and Europe, but not North America-Europe.


The OP did. I don't understand all these posts about North America destinations. The OP was pretty clear to me. But maybe because I read it. :roll:
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incitatus
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Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:35 pm

The geography of PDL is a lot more interesting than that of KEF. Within the range of a 737-700, which in practice is about 3300 miles, there is:

BOS 2395 mi
JFK 2555 mi
YYZ 2820 mi
ORD 3250 mi
ATL 3260 mi
MIA 3270 mi
SJU 2870 mi
CCS 3170 mi
BEL 3060 mi
REC 3210 mi
LOS 2815 mi
SSG 3190 mi
CAI 3270 mi
TLV 3405 mi (just beyond)
IST 2880 mi
SVO 3115 mi

A PDL airline could focus on US-Europe just like KEF, but also bring European tourists to all islands in the Eastern Caribbean, plus serve the northern rim of South America to Europe and US-West/NorthAfrica. At least geographically, greater potential!
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:22 pm

Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:06 pm

incitatus wrote:
A PDL airline could focus on US-Europe just like KEF, but also bring European tourists to all islands in the Eastern Caribbean, plus serve the northern rim of South America to Europe and US-West/NorthAfrica. At least geographically, greater potential!

All destinations that are easily within range of a nonstop flight from Europe. Just use an A330, a 767 or a 787.
European tourists prefer nonstop, if there is a choice. And there is always the question how red your eyes will be after a redeye flight.
 
phxsanslcpdx
Posts: 88
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:36 pm

Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:19 pm

Several posters have made valid points that many travelers would prefer nonstop flights, and a scissor hub at PDL would struggle to get costs low enough on the highest-volume routes to compete directly on price with KEF. I'd say it's pretty clear that PDL isn't going to dominate transatlantic market share.

But it doesn't have to dominate market share in order to succeed. Right now PDL accounts for something like 0.1%-0.2% of transatlantic market share. If the right airline(s) and facilities went in, they could increase this tenfold into a small scissor hub, even while 98% of transatlantic travelers choose different routes. This would be achievable even if prices on some city pairs were a bit higher than through KEF... a holiday in Iceland and a holiday in the Azores are not complete substitute goods.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10369
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Replicate Keflavik's model in the Azores?

Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:39 am

iRISH251 wrote:
Those are the tracks on one day and, as many people will know, the tracks are set each day based on forecast wind patterns. They are often more northerly than depicted in the example and of course a Mercator projection, as in the map shown, misrepresents the relative distances involved.

It's one day I know but it points to the fact that PDL is no worse than KEF. And the map does not misrepresent the distance. You have to count the lines of latitude. Notice how they are further apart the firther north you go. Bottom line, geography is not as relevant here as neither KEF nor PDL are on the ideal path but does does not mean that there isn't a market for that sort of thing.

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
But it doesn't have to dominate market share in order to succeed. Right now PDL accounts for something like 0.1%-0.2% of transatlantic market share. If the right airline(s) and facilities went in, they could increase this tenfold into a small scissor hub, even while 98% of transatlantic travelers choose different routes. This would be achievable even if prices on some city pairs were a bit higher than through KEF... a holiday in Iceland and a holiday in the Azores are not complete substitute goods.

i don't think PDL has the space to expand into anything resembling a hub. I think they only have 7 or 8 parking stands right now and an A330 probably takes 2 of the spaces at a time. So it could be challenging.

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