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RL777
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:26 am

I could see UA deciding to opt out of the A350-1000 in favour of more 77Ws, but I don't see how that would jeopardize the -900 order. The 787-9s are too small to cover that whole segment and -10 has nowhere near the same legs as the A350-900. I doubt the crew rest issue the reason for the order falling under. From my knowledge its quite similar to the 77W minus a bit of space.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:39 am

avek00 wrote:
NYCRuss wrote:
avek00 wrote:
A few things to consider:

1. The A330neo family can fly the vast majority of current UA widebody missions without struggling on performance or sacrificing seating capacity.

2. United is practically compelled to develop and launch a longhaul Premium Economy cabin in the near future -- how will that impact seating capacities, and does that favor moving much of the 767 flying to the 330 platform?

3. Can UA convince Airbus to take the 787-8s off its hands?


Why would UA want to sell its 788s?


Poor resale values down the road, and the ability to get more capacity at effectively the same trip costs.


I don't see that happening....
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:28 am

NYCRuss wrote:
Why would UA want to sell its 788s?

Because they don't (and won't) have several key features that are now standard on the 789 and 78X, which lowers their longterm value.

Also, a 789 can do anything that a 788 can do, with more revenue potential, for similar cost-- which significantly weakens the business case for a 788, except on routes where it's the absolute max that an airline can expect to profitably fill (of which there are few).

Thus, if someone were to give a great price to relieve the airline of the 788, it would likely be taken into strong consideration.


CONTACREW wrote:
Instead of reading something from some garbage blog why don't you get your info from someone who works at the airline.

A better question is why would anyone get corporate CapEx and asset acquisition information from a peon, as opposed to statements from executive-level management?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:38 am

antoniemey wrote:
UA just brought aboard new people in several key financial positions. They are reviewing everything that is amendable to determine what makes the most sense based upon their current situation and their vision for the company, not the vision that whoever placed the order had.


UA's indecision with regard to the A350 order, on top of AA's A350 deferrals in July, must be making for some fun times in Toulouse... A35K first flight then shortly thereafter UA publicly says it's reconsidering the A35K orders while SQ is asking for something with even more capacity? It can't be fun to try to stay ahead of all the different things the customers want.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:13 am

Revelation wrote:
antoniemey wrote:
UA just brought aboard new people in several key financial positions. They are reviewing everything that is amendable to determine what makes the most sense based upon their current situation and their vision for the company, not the vision that whoever placed the order had.


UA's indecision with regard to the A350 order, on top of AA's A350 deferrals in July, must be making for some fun times in Toulouse... A35K first flight then shortly thereafter UA publicly says it's reconsidering the A35K orders while SQ is asking for something with even more capacity? It can't be fun to try to stay ahead of all the different things the customers want.


If I'm not mistaken, AA deferred their A359s to keep in line with retirements of other aircraft during the next couple years. I don't think it was as a result of anything negative with the type.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:11 am

CONTACREW wrote:
LuxuryLiner767 wrote:
CONTACREW wrote:

Levy is very pro Airbus (nothing wrong with that).

I would add the "new" UA President Scott Kirby potentially to that camp.
I would also add the retired board member from Air Canada, as well.
A pivot to downgrade from A350-1000s to A330-300CEO/-900NEO would not be out of this world.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:54 am

mercure1 wrote:
I would add the "new" UA President Scott Kirby potentially to that camp.
I would also add the retired board member from Air Canada, as well.
A pivot to downgrade from A350-1000s to A330-300CEO/-900NEO would not be out of this world.


Yes, Kirby has a past that favors Airbus, as does CFO Andrew Levy. But Robert Milton, the former head of Air Canada, doesn't really. Under his watch, AC retired all the A340s and placed big orders of 77W/77Ls, 787s, and 737MAXes to replace the A319/A320s. Carolyn Corvi, another UA board member, is a former Boeing executive. So there are definitely still some strong ties to Boeing in the current leadership. I think a lot of fleet decisions are still up in the air, but whatever they decide, we can be sure that UA will continue to receive new aircraft from both Boeing and Airbus in the near future, no matter what the models may be.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:28 am

If there is a problem with the pilots contract and the crew rest area but the pilots are eager to fly the A350 then I expect the problem to be sorted quite quickly, if there are pilots that want to have the A350 in the fleet and they are looking for more varied widebodies as has been posted.

Regarding the short term goal for new members of the UA management team looking at where they can change the direction of the airline, they have been brought in to change up the plans of the old management. If they came in and said all is fine then what would their purpose in the company be. Its also all good and well looking to reduce capex, but if you reduce it by talking the cheapest options all the time eventually 10 years down the line you will have to spend a lot more because you will have a fleet that isn't the most fuel efficient. Its great to get 737-700 at almost nothing, its great to pay very little for a 77W, but it will eventually cost you more than any new model and you will be back at square one. I guess then the new management brought in to shake up the company will then recommend new frames to replace to old ones....kicking the can down the road comes to mind.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:41 am

enzo011 wrote:
If there is a problem with the pilots contract and the crew rest area but the pilots are eager to fly the A350 then I expect the problem to be sorted quite quickly, if there are pilots that want to have the A350 in the fleet and they are looking for more varied widebodies as has been posted.
.


I think too much of this conversation has become about the A350 as an Airbus vs Boeing thing, but I'm not clear why that is? It's been repeated in this thread that the sticking point appears to be a crew rest issue, and pilots have been known to hold new aircraft orders at bay over things that some of us would find trivial. It doesn't matter that they want to fly the A350 (I would imagine most would - it's the latest and greatest) but that's irrelevant. They want their agreements honored and are not interested (apparently) in just letting things pass without a fight.

As I said upthread, I'll believe it (canceled A350 order) when I see it.
-Dave


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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:49 am

fcogafa wrote:
Pilots at Delta were quoted as the reason for cancelling or changing 737 orders a couple of years ago so pilots do have power


No order was cancelled, just delayed by DL management because pilots wouldn't sign a new agreement. Delta subsequently placed the order for 737-900ERs once the pilots signed the new agreement.

Almost the reverse situation to what we apparently have at UA, where an order is already on the books.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:20 am

antoniemey wrote:
UA just brought aboard new people in several key financial positions. They are reviewing everything that is amendable to determine what makes the most sense based upon their current situation and their vision for the company, not the vision that whoever placed the order had.


And they will be familiar with the new financial philosophy at Boeing. So perhaps more about substitution of 788 family they would have ordered in addition to current orders and options, replaced with A330 or smaller A350 models, this size aircraft being more of a priority than larger.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:29 am

CONTACREW wrote:
Apparently the A350 rest area is too small, bunks too narrow and aren't compliant with UPA or 117 (UA pilot specific requirements). If we take delivery of the A350s great if not I'm not gonna lose sleep over it.


Wish there was a customer champion at UA with as much influence over passenger seat design and sizing! If passenger seating is being downsized, time for the agreement with flight crew to be updated and downsized to maintain the status quo.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:31 am

CONTACREW wrote:
Its not that the pilots dont want to fly the A350s (because many do) but rather the overall space and bunk size is the issue. I an ISM would love if we take the A350s. Love working the 787s and look forward to working on the A350s (hopefully) .


The thing I still don't understand, why does this pops up just now? Like someone said before, the configuration is usually discussed with all stakeholders (including pilots) and thus when one decides on a configuration, one would assume that the requirements would have been met for al stakeholders or at least they agree that the configuration is acceptable to them. Thus when one stakeholder now objects, either the process hasn't worked (aka the management went ahead despite the an agreement with all their stakeholders) or one of the stakeholders decided to revert their initial approval. Either way, I don;t see that this may result in cancelling the order without any compensation (as I don't think Airbus is stupid enough the allow compensation free break clauses based on inept management decisions or the the changing mind of one stakeholder).

BTW if a CFO of a listed company doesn't speak the truth in public, he may have some serious problems ahead with SEC. Thus when he publically indicates that the order is too costly to cancel, he implies that no outright cancellation is foreseen. If this doesn't reflect the current status he either shouldn't mention this at all or mention the option of a full cancellation as well. Moreover as his comments may impact the shareholders in EADS as well. Given we're talking about a CFO of an US company, I trust that every word he speaks in public has been weighed by the legal department of UA.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:51 pm

Boeing778X wrote:
UA's indecision with regard to the A350 order, on top of AA's A350 deferrals in July, must be making for some fun times in Toulouse... A35K first flight then shortly thereafter UA publicly says it's reconsidering the A35K orders while SQ is asking for something with even more capacity? It can't be fun to try to stay ahead of all the different things the customers want.


If I'm not mistaken, AA deferred their A359s to keep in line with retirements of other aircraft during the next couple years. I don't think it was as a result of anything negative with the type.[/quote]

I agree, there's nothing wrong with the aircraft, perhaps other than the cost, relative to UA's/AA's revised revenue projections. My point still stands, it must be crazy difficult for the vendors to deal with. They made decisions to spend billions of dollars many years ago, and as the product is ready to come off the line, key customers are asking for deferments or swaps whilst others are asking for even more investment in the product. This is not unique to Airbus or the A350. In most cases it gets resolved, but I have to wonder if the vendors are going to get less tolerant of swaps or deferments as time moves on.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:31 pm

avek00 wrote:
NYCRuss wrote:
avek00 wrote:
A few things to consider:

1. The A330neo family can fly the vast majority of current UA widebody missions without struggling on performance or sacrificing seating capacity.

2. United is practically compelled to develop and launch a longhaul Premium Economy cabin in the near future -- how will that impact seating capacities, and does that favor moving much of the 767 flying to the 330 platform?

3. Can UA convince Airbus to take the 787-8s off its hands?


Why would UA want to sell its 788s?


Poor resale values down the road, and the ability to get more capacity at effectively the same trip costs.

Considering how long UA typically keeps its planes I doubt they care about resale value that much. Ditching the 788s for the A330neo means retraining crews, maintenance staff etc. Dumping essentially new planes for a new fleet type makes no sense.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:10 pm

I take Levy at his word when he says UA will convert the A35K order into smaller aircraft. As mentioned UA has a new management team that Munoz brought in, the CEO has been working at changing the culture and reputation of the airline while the new team (Kirby, Levy, Julia Haywood) are tasked with improving the performance of the company. The new team under Munoz was recently brought in, which is why we are seeing changes to decisions like the 73G order that were made back in the Spring.

UA is looking to get more out of their current fleet, except the 744s which are being retired. The 777s can soldier on until at least the middle of the next decade, when I think replacing them with A350s would be warranted. The first to go will be the Pratt Powered 777s, the last would be the GE-90 Powered 777s as they have commonality with the new 77Ws. As mentioned converting the A35K order to A350-900s and A330s and pushing delivery back until 2023-2025 gives them more time to realize savings with the current fleet. Replace the Pratt powered 777s with A350s and 763s with A330s.

I think we can forget the A321NEO, I think Boeing is going to built the 737-10 and UA will be the launch customer.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:11 pm

RL777 wrote:
I could see UA deciding to opt out of the A350-1000 in favour of more 77Ws, but I don't see how that would jeopardize the -900 order. The 787-9s are too small to cover that whole segment and -10 has nowhere near the same legs as the A350-900. I doubt the crew rest issue the reason for the order falling under. From my knowledge its quite similar to the 77W minus a bit of space.


I can understand to reduce the number of A350-1000 because one has ordered already to many 777-300ER and does not need more new frames of the same size.
But decreasing the number of A350-1000 to order more 777-300ER burning at least 15% more fuel then the A350 for a similar mission, sounds rather ill advised to me.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Hello

I hope they will keep the A35K order, because I think they make great 744 replacements, because they will have a cruising speed around the area as a 744 cruising speed. The A35K also have around the same capacity as a 744, and I applause UA for ordering the only twin jet that could actually replace a 744, so I hope they do not change their minds and go to the smaller A359.
Now it would nice to see an A330 in UA livery, and as with the 744s, I believe the 767s are on their way out, so I think it would stay at 4 wide bodies.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:20 pm

The problem could be solved, as it really seems to be about the size of the crew rest room. However it would mean that UA has to take the plane with a non standard cabin configuration and would have to pay the extra costs of installation and for the special crew rest area design. Basic difference seems to be the number of "lounge Chairs". 777 has 2, A350 has 1, as has the 787.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:13 pm

STT757 wrote:
As mentioned converting the A35K order to A350-900s and A330s and pushing delivery back until 2023-2025 gives them more time to realize savings with the current fleet. Replace the Pratt powered 777s with A350s and 763s with A330s..

:thumbsup:
IIRC original 772s (18yrs) and 763s (21yrs) are not getting any younger, perhaps time to consider a replacement strategy now.
I'm sure Airbus has some good deals on A330CEOs w/ quick delivery slots.

http://www.airfleets.net/ageflotte/Unit ... rlines.htm
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:35 pm

G'day

seahawk wrote:
The problem could be solved, as it really seems to be about the size of the crew rest room. However it would mean that UA has to take the plane with a non standard cabin configuration and would have to pay the extra costs of installation and for the special crew rest area design. Basic difference seems to be the number of "lounge Chairs". 777 has 2, A350 has 1, as has the 787.


If king size beds and ensuites with jacuzzies do not fit in an A350-1000 then they also do not fit in an A350-900, with crew rest areas in both types presumably being the same. As mentioned abovethread the "furniture" including the carpets, powder rooms, crew rests etc. are defined prior to placing an order. Should the agreement with the pilot union regarding crew rests have changed since, I am sure United would work with Airbus to accommodate such requirements. So presumably crew rests are not the issue for modifying this order.

Present orders for 35 A351's plus 14 B77W's results in a fleet size of 49, aircraft with essentially the same size and with equal payload range capabilities. The original plan was to replace the 747's with those 25 + 10 A351's ordered originally which would also have provided for some growth in that size capacity. That plan got sc$#%ed-up with that irresistible bargain buy of the 77W's, so there is now a surplus to requirements of some 14 aircraft in that size category and thus the subject of downsizing the A351 order arose.

All those ageing 777's will gradually need to be replaced, my guess is by both the B789 for smaller capacity and the A359 for larger capacity and longer range missions. So I expect United to reduce the A351 order and take A359's instead. Splitting Atlantic and Pacific operations between the A339 and A359 respectively the way Delta has decided seems unlikely for United with its already substantial B787 fleet and orders. With the B788 no longer being considered the greatest invention since sliced bread, it will be interesting to see what the sizeable fleet of B767's will be replaced with. Interesting times ahead!


Cheers

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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:57 pm

mercure1 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
As mentioned converting the A35K order to A350-900s and A330s and pushing delivery back until 2023-2025 gives them more time to realize savings with the current fleet. Replace the Pratt powered 777s with A350s and 763s with A330s..

:thumbsup:
IIRC original 772s (18yrs) and 763s (21yrs) are not getting any younger, perhaps time to consider a replacement strategy now.
I'm sure Airbus has some good deals on A330CEOs w/ quick delivery slots.

http://www.airfleets.net/ageflotte/Unit ... rlines.htm


UA just opted to make add'l investments in the 763 fleet. No way they'd immediately dump them for A332/333s. Maybe in 3/5 years for NEO at the right price.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:10 pm

Planesmart wrote:
CONTACREW wrote:
Apparently the A350 rest area is too small, bunks too narrow and aren't compliant with UPA or 117 (UA pilot specific requirements). If we take delivery of the A350s great if not I'm not gonna lose sleep over it.


Wish there was a customer champion at UA with as much influence over passenger seat design and sizing! If passenger seating is being downsized, time for the agreement with flight crew to be updated and downsized to maintain the status quo.


The pilots have a union to address these issues. Otherwise, the airline could/would do whatever they want within legal bounds, even if it means that the crew is not getting their proper rest.

The passengers have a pocket book to address their own issues. If they don't like the seats UA uses, they can let their money do the talking.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:41 pm

seahawk wrote:
Basic difference seems to be the number of "lounge Chairs". 777 has 2, A350 has 1, as has the 787.


Reading this thread, it's like I'm in France, or India, or..................
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 9:29 pm

Did some asking around and the issue with crew rest is a contractual one from what I was told, not some FAA based certification.

Kirby may be rethinking the 35K purchase in part due to the screaming deal UA is getting on the end-of-run price on the 77Ws coupled with the 787 fleet they will have and the 777s and 767s that aren't going anywhere over the near-term.

Sure the 35k burns less fuel but they are going to be much more expensive. Even assuming the maintenance costs are lower for the 35K, are they low enough to offset the savings on buying a 77W fleet (which will also save UA on training costs)?

The change in the Airbus order if it comes will be interesting. Converting to 321NEOs while keeping the -8Max might make sense. Part of what we don't know of course is the flexibility in the contractual language for each company. Downsizing from the 35K to the 321NEO is a really big switch and takes out a really large 35K order that Airbus obviously wants to keep. By the same token, its a tad puzzling to buy a bunch of 77Ws when the 35Ks are due to come onto the property in 2018/19 even if they are cheap.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:04 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
Sure the 35k burns less fuel but they are going to be much more expensive. Even assuming the maintenance costs are lower for the 35K, are they low enough to offset the savings on buying a 77W fleet (which will also save UA on training costs)?


I don't think so, or many current 77W operator would cancel their 35K order and take some 77W. Such as QR (well they did, but it's also because they need planes quickly regardless), EY, CX, BA, JL, JJ. 7 out of 11 customer if you include UA.
Long term wise I don't think the 77W would be cheaper than the 35K, especially when you consider that UA likes to keep their planes around for a couple of decades.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:18 pm

AsiaTravel wrote:
I don't think so, or many current 77W operator would cancel their 35K order and take some 77W. Such as QR (well they did, but it's also because they need planes quickly regardless), EY, CX, BA, JL, JJ. 7 out of 11 customer if you include UA.


Because they have already placed large, non-refundable deposits and contract agreements for those orders. That is exactly why United will be changing their order not cancelling it.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:51 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
The change in the Airbus order if it comes will be interesting. Converting to 321NEOs while keeping the -8Max might make sense. Part of what we don't know of course is the flexibility in the contractual language for each company. Downsizing from the 35K to the 321NEO is a really big switch and takes out a really large 35K order that Airbus obviously wants to keep. By the same token, its a tad puzzling to buy a bunch of 77Ws when the 35Ks are due to come onto the property in 2018/19 even if they are cheap.


United could just defer the 350-1000 and get 350-900's later on when it's time to replace the 777-200's since the 350-900 appears to be the perfect 777-200 replacement. .
 
airzona11
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:57 pm

UA is showing the flexibility of a large and diversified fleet. With future orders they can optimize to changing market conditions and roles they need the planes to fulfill.

No chance they change 787s for A330s. But they might change A35K to A359s/A330 etc. Just like they have changed 789s to 77Ws.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:00 am

ehaase wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
The change in the Airbus order if it comes will be interesting. Converting to 321NEOs while keeping the -8Max might make sense. Part of what we don't know of course is the flexibility in the contractual language for each company. Downsizing from the 35K to the 321NEO is a really big switch and takes out a really large 35K order that Airbus obviously wants to keep. By the same token, its a tad puzzling to buy a bunch of 77Ws when the 35Ks are due to come onto the property in 2018/19 even if they are cheap.


United could just defer the 350-1000 and get 350-900's later on when it's time to replace the 777-200's since the 350-900 appears to be the perfect 777-200 replacement. .


There is an argument to be made that either the 789 or 359 are the "perfect" 772ER replacement. One is lighter with slightly longer range (789), one is larger which translates into more folks/cargo capacity (359). I agree a deferment would be done first and they might punt the issue of whether to switch to the 359 to a point down the road by a few years.
 
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:43 am

SFOtoORD wrote:

UA just opted to make add'l investments in the 763 fleet. No way they'd immediately dump them for A332/333s. Maybe in 3/5 years for NEO at the right price.


Despite that recent significant investment, I expect that UA will order a number of A330s roughly equal to the number of 763s and begin to replace the 763s in 2018.

Time will tell, of course.
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SFOtoORD
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:51 am

FlyHossD wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

UA just opted to make add'l investments in the 763 fleet. No way they'd immediately dump them for A332/333s. Maybe in 3/5 years for NEO at the right price.


Despite that recent significant investment, I expect that UA will order a number of A330s roughly equal to the number of 763s and begin to replace the 763s in 2018.

Time will tell, of course.


Even if true I assume they'd want NEOs.
 
CONTACREW
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:16 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

UA just opted to make add'l investments in the 763 fleet. No way they'd immediately dump them for A332/333s. Maybe in 3/5 years for NEO at the right price.


Despite that recent significant investment, I expect that UA will order a number of A330s roughly equal to the number of 763s and begin to replace the 763s in 2018.

Time will tell, of course.


Even if true I assume they'd want NEOs.


We will probably go with the A330-800 or 900 if we switch the A350 order to A330.
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intotheair
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:21 am

I would looove to see an A330 in UA colors. I never thought it would happen, and I'm still a little doubtful about it, but this is as close as it's ever gotten. My money is still on UA splitting the order into 35Ks and 359s, possibly with some deferrals. But I would love to be pleasantly surprised.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:59 am

I'd think a deferment of some portion of the order would be rational just based on the price of fuel and the heavy capex they are facing. They certainly could turn 35 A350-1000s into a mix of A339/A359/A35Ks, with the deliveries of the A339s coming first. It's very hard for me to imagine any sort of cancellation.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:43 am

CONTACREW wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:

Despite that recent significant investment, I expect that UA will order a number of A330s roughly equal to the number of 763s and begin to replace the 763s in 2018.

Time will tell, of course.


Even if true I assume they'd want NEOs.


We will probably go with the A330-800 or 900 if we switch the A350 order to A330.

I don't get this statement. If "you" switch to A330s, what else could you order except for -800s or -900s? Of course, CEOs, but I guess that's not very likely.
 
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intotheair
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:00 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
I'd think a deferment of some portion of the order would be rational just based on the price of fuel and the heavy capex they are facing. They certainly could turn 35 A350-1000s into a mix of A339/A359/A35Ks, with the deliveries of the A339s coming first. It's very hard for me to imagine any sort of cancellation.


A cancellation is highly unlikely. Take it from the horse's mouth (the CFO quoted in the original article). The only people who think a cancellation is likely are the uninformed and Boeing partisans. I think there's a good sized overlap between those two.
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fun2fly
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:28 am

FlyHossD wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

UA just opted to make add'l investments in the 763 fleet. No way they'd immediately dump them for A332/333s. Maybe in 3/5 years for NEO at the right price.


Despite that recent significant investment, I expect that UA will order a number of A330s roughly equal to the number of 763s and begin to replace the 763s in 2018.

Time will tell, of course.


Even though they plan on putting Polaris in the 763's in 2017?
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:01 am

Revelation wrote:
antoniemey wrote:
UA just brought aboard new people in several key financial positions. They are reviewing everything that is amendable to determine what makes the most sense based upon their current situation and their vision for the company, not the vision that whoever placed the order had.


UA's indecision with regard to the A350 order, on top of AA's A350 deferrals in July, must be making for some fun times in Toulouse... A35K first flight then shortly thereafter UA publicly says it's reconsidering the A35K orders while SQ is asking for something with even more capacity? It can't be fun to try to stay ahead of all the different things the customers want.


If we may believe Lufthansa's CEO, Airbus has little issues with aircraft deferrals.

"Whenever you call Airbus and tell them you want to take an A320neo or A350 later, they don't complain," Spohr told analysts.


http://www.chinaaviationdaily.com/news/54/54719.html
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StTim
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:21 am

I get the feeling that Airbus is trying to use this as a differentiation in being more of a partner to the airlines. You want to delay ok sure.

If the conversation when the call is made to Seattle is always hey no you signed for this. Then next time they need an order does the flexibly one shows make you more likely to go with them?
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:28 am

With a backlog of 700+ aircraft, deferring a few aircraft shouldn't be much of a problem.
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hkcanadaexpat
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:26 pm

fun2fly wrote:
Even though they plan on putting Polaris in the 763's in 2017?

And its going to take more than 2 years to do the entire fleet. The plan is for only the first 14 of 51 to have Polaris installed in 2017. So, the odds of any 763s being retired and replaced by A330neos as early as 2018 is zero. That is of course unless plans change and the new management decides to scrap the upgrades of 763s and decides to retire them in mass early like AA is doing. But the minute a polaris seat is installed on a 763 you can bet the house that that frame is staying put for at least 5 years. And the first frame is due in the shop next month.
 
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keesje
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:52 pm

intotheair wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I'd think a deferment of some portion of the order would be rational just based on the price of fuel and the heavy capex they are facing. They certainly could turn 35 A350-1000s into a mix of A339/A359/A35Ks, with the deliveries of the A339s coming first. It's very hard for me to imagine any sort of cancellation.


A cancellation is highly unlikely. Take it from the horse's mouth (the CFO quoted in the original article). The only people who think a cancellation is likely are the uninformed and Boeing partisans. I think there's a good sized overlap between those two.


Correct, it seems preferences are taking over from reality sometimes.

Looking at what UA needs they'll probably change the mix a bit. If they can get further 77W's for a price Boeing needs to fill the 777 production gap they probably will take a serious look. The 77W are (still) very good machines for their long haul flights to Asia and Europe from CA. Cost advantages from lower purchase price, engine PowerByHour contracts (GE/GECAS vs RR..), fleet commonality, cockpit commonality can come a long way to compensate better fuel efficiency of the A350s.

I think UA wants A350s to replace 772's and A321 for domestic. 787-9's seem to be fine as well as 737-800/8s. Now that is not exactly what they have on order so they are playing around with the OE's. If they want more 787s or 777-9's in the longer term they can hand in e.g. 737-9's orders. meanwhile they can discuss 737-10. If only to try get better prices / conditions from Airbus on A321s..
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fcogafa
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:23 am

scbriml wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
Pilots at Delta were quoted as the reason for cancelling or changing 737 orders a couple of years ago so pilots do have power


No order was cancelled, just delayed by DL management because pilots wouldn't sign a new agreement. Delta subsequently placed the order for 737-900ERs once the pilots signed the new agreement.

Almost the reverse situation to what we apparently have at UA, where an order is already on the books.


Incorrect, see

http://news.delta.com/ceo-confirms-jet- ... ncellation

The fact that they were subsequently reinstated was because the pilots agreed terms, so they do have the power to influence decisions
 
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Stitch
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:27 am

fcogafa wrote:
scbriml wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
Pilots at Delta were quoted as the reason for cancelling or changing 737 orders a couple of years ago so pilots do have power


No order was cancelled, just delayed by DL management because pilots wouldn't sign a new agreement. Delta subsequently placed the order for 737-900ERs once the pilots signed the new agreement.

Almost the reverse situation to what we apparently have at UA, where an order is already on the books.


Incorrect, see

http://news.delta.com/ceo-confirms-jet- ... ncellation


What Delta cancelled was their intention to order those planes. They did not have firm orders on hand with Embraer and Boeing at the time, only purchase agreements. Once the contract was ratified six months later, those purchase agreements were consumated.
 
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RayChuang
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:30 am

One thing that UA could do is cancel the A350XWB-1000 order in favor of buying 75-100 A321neoLR's, which will be used to replace UA's aging 757-200 fleet.
 
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antoniemey
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:36 am

RayChuang wrote:
One thing that UA could do is cancel the A350XWB-1000 order in favor of buying 75-100 A321neoLR's, which will be used to replace UA's aging 757-200 fleet.


They've already replaced most of the pmUA 757s with 739ERs. The pmCO 757s and ps 757s will be able to fly for a good while before needing replaced.

Doesn't mean they won't be replaced by A321s, but it's also not an outcome I'd bet on. They're more likely to be replaced by 737MAX models or reshuffling the international fleet.
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:21 am

RayChuang wrote:
One thing that UA could do is cancel the A350XWB-1000 order in favor of buying 75-100 A321neoLR's, which will be used to replace UA's aging 757-200 fleet.

UA doesn't need anywhere close to 75-100 A321LRs.
 
CONTACREW
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:25 am

antoniemey wrote:
RayChuang wrote:
One thing that UA could do is cancel the A350XWB-1000 order in favor of buying 75-100 A321neoLR's, which will be used to replace UA's aging 757-200 fleet.


They've already replaced most of the pmUA 757s with 739ERs. The pmCO 757s and ps 757s will be able to fly for a good while before needing replaced.

Doesn't mean they won't be replaced by A321s, but it's also not an outcome I'd bet on. They're more likely to be replaced by 737MAX models or reshuffling the international fleet.


The sub UA 757s are leaving the fleet by 2018.
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piedmont762
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Re: UA considering converting some of its A35K order to A359 and/or A330

Tue Dec 06, 2016 2:46 am

antoniemey wrote:
RayChuang wrote:
One thing that UA could do is cancel the A350XWB-1000 order in favor of buying 75-100 A321neoLR's, which will be used to replace UA's aging 757-200 fleet.


They've already replaced most of the pmUA 757s with 739ERs. The pmCO 757s and ps 757s will be able to fly for a good while before needing replaced.

Doesn't mean they won't be replaced by A321s, but it's also not an outcome I'd bet on. They're more likely to be replaced by 737MAX models or reshuffling the international fleet.


Not really. The 739ER can't do everything the 757 can (no slack on West Coast-Hawaii, TATL, South America etc) and the sCO 757 fleet is aging as well. 321NEO would be smart for UA.

Dumping 788s would be interesting and in an odd way I can almost see UA trading them in for 787-9 or 77W if that's even possible. Recall all the reliability issues they had being the first off the line, especially with regards to the batteries. I think it can be argued with the 787-9 coming on so quickly after the 788s were delivered; the 788s were sort of overshadowed.

I thought I also read somewhere that the 788 will be some of the last a/c to get Polaris installations, if they are at all. Read it on FT and trying to dig up what it said.

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