factsonly
Topic Author
Posts: 2748
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 3:27 pm

The lastest CAA statistics for October 2016 indicate a possible softening of demand to/from the UK, though naturally some markets continue to do well:

Here are some examples of lower passenger demand on Oct 16 vs Oct 15:

- HEATHROW - BRUSSELS 51.368 -12%
- LONDON CITY - ANTWERP 4.382 -22%
- BIRMINGHAM - BRUSSELS 10.996 -20%
- HEATHROW - COPENHAGEN 83.209 -10%
- LONDON CITY - BILLUND 1.526 -35%
- ABERDEEN - COPENHAGEN 3.556 -17%
- HEATHROW - PARIS CDG 97.645 -14%
- HEATHROW - PARIS ORLY 26.059 -15%
- LONDON CITY - PARIS (ORLY) 9.632 -19%
- CARDIFF - PARIS CDG 4.361 -44%
- LONDON CITY - FRANKFURT 21.883 -7%
- ABERDEEN - FRANKFURT 11.646 -9%
- CARDIFF - DUSSELDORF 489 -64%
- CARDIFF - CORK 1.131 -14%
- CARDIFF - DUBLIN 9.288 -69%
- HEATHROW - MILAN (LINATE) 50.519 -13%
- LONDON CITY - MADRID 4.656 -32%
- HEATHROW - GOTEBORG 21.381 -18%
- HEATHROW - TEL AVIV 44.200 -18%

- HEATHROW - LAGOS 33.398 -14%
- HEATHROW - LUANDA 935 -56%
- HEATHROW - CAPE TOWN 21.339 -25%
- HEATHROW - BAHRAIN 20.145 -9%
- HEATHROW - KUWAIT 20.405 -8%
- HEATHROW - JEDDAH 9.776 -30%
- HEATHROW - RIYADH 15.930 -23%
- HEATHROW - ABU DHABI 75.921 -0.5%
- NEWCASTLE - DUBAI 18.860 -5%
- BIRMINGHAM - DUBAI 56.917 -1%
- HEATHROW - ISLAMABAD 8.203 -16%
- HEATHROW - KARACHI 2.477 -15%
- HEATHROW - LAHORE 5.658 -26%

- HEATHROW - BEIJING 40.208 -4%
- HEATHROW - CHENGDU 4.787 -2%
- HEATHROW - GUANGZHOU 9.798 -15%
- HEATHROW - HONG KONG 128.905 -4%
- HEATHROW - TAIPEI 3.192 -67%
- HEATHROW - MELBOURNE 9.327 -12%
- HEATHROW - SYDNEY 23.028 -6%
- HEATHROW - AUCKLAND 1.858 -84%

- HEATHROW - CALGARY 20.660 -10%
- HEATHROW - EDMONTON 0 -100%
- HEATHROW - HALIFAX INT 5.629 -14%
- HEATHROW - OTTAWA 9.175 -4%
- HEATHROW - ST JOHNS 2.771 -27%
- HEATHROW - TORONTO 87.836 -2%
- HEATHROW - VANCOUVER 36.384 -9%
- BIRMINGHAM - TORONTO 426 -30%
- GLASGOW - VANCOUVER 846 -42%

- HEATHROW - ATLANTA 53.674 -5%
- HEATHROW - AUSTIN 11.539 -3%
- HEATHROW - BOSTON 75.597 -9%
- HEATHROW - DALLAS/FORT WORTH 55.948 -4%
- HEATHROW - DENVER 15.823 -2%
- HEATHROW - DETROIT 19.623 -3%
- HEATHROW - FORT LAUDERDALE 0 -100%
- HEATHROW - HOUSTON 39.213 -19%
- HEATHROW - MIAMI 84.167 -4%
- HEATHROW - MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL 10.664 -19%
- HEATHROW - NEW YORK (JF KENNEDY) 261.337 -13%
- HEATHROW - NEW YORK (NEWARK) 83.917 -5%
- HEATHROW - PHILADELPHIA 37.838 -13%
- HEATHROW - PHOENIX 19.088 -3%
- HEATHROW - RALEIGH 9.227 -8%
- HEATHROW - SAN FRANCISCO 86.734 -11%
- LONDON CITY - NEW YORK (JFK) 1.838 -22%
- EDINBURGH - CHICAGO 873 -12%
- EDINBURGH - NEWARK 11.236 -7%

Examples of higher passenger demand, due to new routes or new airlines:

- HEATHROW - VIENNA 74.030 +10%
- EDINBURGH - BRUSSELS 10.726 +16%
- EDINBURGH - COPENHAGEN 23.238 +23%
- NEWCASTLE - COPENHAGEN 2.568 +11%
- EDINBURGH - LYON 2.408 +73%
- GLASGOW - PARIS CDG 14.806 +28%
- LONDON CITY - DUSSELDORF 8.242 +57%
- BIRMINGHAM - BERLIN (TEGEL) 6.027 +35%
- EDINBURGH - BERLIN (SCHONEFELD) 6.555 +55%
- GLASGOW - BERLIN (SCHONEFELD) 14.284 +86%
- HEATHROW - LEMNOS 1.808 +753%
- HEATHROW - PREVEZA 2.334 +458%
- DONCASTER SHEFFIELD - DUBLIN 2.331 +60%
- GLASGOW - CORK 2.175 +65%
- LIVERPOOL - DUBLIN 45.671 +34%
- HEATHROW - VENICE 14.826 +32%
- EDINBURGH - BOLOGNA 3.029 +22%
- EDINBURGH - MILAN (MALPENSA) 13.751 +54%
- EDINBURGH - NAPLES 2.276 +49%
- SOUTHAMPTON - AMSTERDAM 18.261 +61%
- BIRMINGHAM - MADRID 15.900 +324%
- EDINBURGH - STOCKHOLM 9.951 +29%
- HEATHROW - KRAKOW 9.230 +91%

- HEATHROW - NAIROBI 29.762 +22%
- HEATHROW - ACCRA 17.592 +17%
- HEATHROW - TEHRAN 10.422 +139%
- HEATHROW - MUSCAT 23.798 +56%
- EDINBURGH - DOHA 12.712 +21%
- EDINBURGH - ABU DHABI 12.922 +13%
- BIRMINGHAM - ISLAMABAD 7.103 +20%

- HEATHROW - MANILA 9.224 +42%
- HEATHROW - BANGKOK 61.923 +30%
- HEATHROW - HANOI 6.413 +25%
- HEATHROW - HO CHI MINH CITY 4.901 +34%

- HEATHROW - LAS VEGAS 30.786 +53%
- HEATHROW - LOS ANGELES 140.350 +5%
- HEATHROW - SALT LAKE CITY 5.936 +100%
- HEATHROW - SAN DIEGO 16.941 +9%
- HEATHROW - SEATTLE 32.891 +8%
- EDINBURGH - NEW YORK (JFK) 15.712 +152%
- GLASGOW - LAS VEGAS 4.573 +48%
- GLASGOW - ORLANDO 16.889 +25%

Some new routes are clearly effective, creating shifts in the market place.

But there is also a sign if general weakness due to:

- Lower exchnage rate for Sterling
- More uncertainty in the market place

Any thoughts?
 
User001
Posts: 1023
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 3:45 pm

I'm not quite sure what the post is trying to prove to be honest.

Even looking at your post in its most basic form, it merely shows some routes are up, some routes are down. It's nothing new or different to any other time period.

It's also a very small and selective list.

Most UK airports are reporting positive figures overall, and your list only covers what can be considered a 'handful' or routes compared to the hundreds, if not thousands, of routes on offer ex-UK.

Like I say, I honestly don't know what the list proves.
 
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readytotaxi
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Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:27 pm

LHR - AKL down 84% year on year, what the hell happened there?
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Growing older, but not up.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 975
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:34 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
LHR - AKL down 84% year on year, what the hell happened there?


Only one operator is ANZ, who sell LHR-LAX and LAX-AKL as seperate sectors. Very fer passengers do the whole LHR-AKL route.

Traffic on the UK-NZ has exploded this year, but it routes via places like SIN, DXB, DOH, HKG so shows in in those stats.
 
BestWestern
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Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2000 8:46 pm

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:40 pm

October data would still be in a draft format. Treat with caution.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
bohica
Posts: 2422
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 3:21 pm

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:01 pm

LHR-FLL down 100%??? Please refresh my memory. Who used to fly LHR-FLL?
 
vv701
Posts: 5895
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:10 pm

Less (5 per cent) working days (Monday through Friday) in October 2016 (21) than October 2015 (22)?

Particularly on low frequency routes any cancellation of flights this year at the end of the review period (resulting in the transfer of some passengers into the following period) or a similar transfer into the review period from last year's preceding period?

Although not applicable to October 16 v October 15 changeable calendar events that have an impact on passenger numbers. The most notable of these events are Easter (that can be in March or April) and Hajj (that can be in any month).

Climate can also impact passenger numbers through cancelled flights and, for example, the start of the winter sports' season.

For the above reasons I consider deducing long term passenger trends from short term data can be anything but helpful.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5547
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:12 pm

LHR, CDG, FRA and IST are down this year compared to 2015. So this is probably a bigger trend in terms of business / economic prospects in Europe and not only in the UK. Among the main hubs only AMS and MAD are in positive numbers.
 
steveinbc
Posts: 289
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 4:30 pm

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:51 pm

Statistics are always open to interpretation so I don think the author was trying to prover anything as such rather to encourage discussion on the figures. To me there does appear a temporary softening of the U.K. Market probably due to the unfavourable exchange rates and some concerns over economic uncertainty. Some stats though do appear very inaccurate such as LHR-YEG down 100% - impossible.
A319 320 321 330 340 380 B707 727 737 747 757 767 777 787 BAe1-11 Trident 1, 2, 3B Viscount Lancaster VC10 HS748, ATP DHC-1, 3 Dash-8 Dash-400 Shorts 330 360 Embraer Banderiante Brasileria 175 190 BAe146 Saab 200 DC-3 -8 -9 -10 MD-11 ATR42-72
 
sierra3tango
Posts: 586
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:59 pm

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:58 pm

In 2015 BST ended 25 Oct and in 2016 BST ended 30 Oct, which is 5 additional days of summer v. winter schedules.

Having said that look very carefully at the final total of ALL international flights (on the last page) it shows 10.046m for all UK airports, the comparative for 2015 is 19.075. These provisional figures are not complete by a looong way. Take a look at Bristol (BRS) for example in Oct 2015 it carried 640.72k pax in 2016 it totals ZERO.

These figures are incomplete
 
Gazdon121
Posts: 538
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:09 pm

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:46 pm

but then Stansted is booming
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:02 pm

Indeed, I miss STN in this summary. LGW, LTN and SEN too by the way. Only London airports in it are LHR and LCY, but London has more airports than just those two. This summary says nothing about a route like STN - EIN, did the number of passengers on that route go up or down?
 
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VS4ever
Posts: 2495
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:03 am

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:02 pm

From the CAA site itself:

As of 2 December 2016, the following airports are not yet available for reporting and therefore are excluded: Barra, Belfast International, Benbecula, Bournemouth, Bristol, Cambeltown, Coventry, East Midlands, Gatwick, Inverness, Islay, Kirkwall, Lerwick, Luton, Manchester, Newquay, Norwich, Prestwick, Scatsa, Southend, Stansted, Stornoway, Sumburgh, Tiree, Wick John O Groats. The next scheduled refresh of airport publications will be 9 December 2016

You've zeroed in on LHR (which is big I grant you) and BHX/GLA as the indicators, however you are missing LGW, MAN, LTN and STN to get a much better comparison.

For example LHR-BOS is 9% down (around 7k passengers) and has been most of the year, so on that route, you are correct there has been a downward impact BUT, DY started LGW-BOS and is filling the gap in most months, as they can ship around 10,000 a month, so even if they manage 70% loads (roughly) for October they will largely fill the gap and the LON-BOS market will be flat year on year at the very least.

One could argue a number of things here. 1. DY has taken away LHR customers and put them on LGW 2. the LHR O&D market is down 3. EK and QR are taking what used to be connecting traffic at LHR away from BA/VS and DL and pushing it direct via DXB and DOH, all 3 are kind of hard to prove individually, but just shows that you need the wider stats before you can make any true assessment against the UK as a whole.
Not saying that there has not been an impact, I do believe there has been, but you need the complete data before coming up with a directional answer.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
caaardiff
Posts: 193
Joined: Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:14 am

Re: Is UK air travel over its peak?

Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:10 pm

The route you've mentioned from Cardiff (CWL) is because of the rugby world cup matches that were held at the millennium (now principality) stadium in 2015. Lots of Irish and French fans flying back and forth.

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