FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

More Cuba reductions
3M FLL-CMW JAN 0.7>0.5 FEB 0.7>0.5
3M FLL-HOG JAN 1.0>0.6 FEB 1.0>0.7
3M FLL-MZO FEB 0.4>0.3
3M FLL-SCU FEB 1.0>0.8
3M FLL-SNU FEB 1.0>0.9
3M FLL-VRA JAN 0.6>0.5

4B ABQ-ALS FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.9
4B ABQ-CNM FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.9
4B ABQ-SVC JAN 1.1>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>0.8
4B AIA-CDR JAN 0.8>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7
4B AIA-DEN JAN 0.8>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7
4B ALS-DEN JAN 1.2>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>3
4B BNA-GLH JAN 0.8>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7
4B CDR-DEN JAN 0.8>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7
4B CEZ-DEN JAN 1.2>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>0.9
4B CEZ-PHX FEB 0>0.9
4B CNM-DFW FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.9
4B CNY-DEN FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0
4B CNY-SLC JAN 0.8>1.9 FEB 0>1.9 MAR 0>1.9
4B CVN-DFW JAN 1.2>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>3
4B DEN-MCK JAN 0.8>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7
4B DFW-GLH FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.9
4B LAX-MCE JAN 1.2>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>3
4B MCE-OAK JAN 0.8>1.7 FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7
4B MSP-TVF JAN 1.7>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>3
4B PHX-SOW JAN 1.2>3 FEB 0>3 MAR 0>0.9
4B PHX-SVC FEB 0>1.0

9K ACK-BOS MAY 7>12 JUN 7>16 JUL 7>23 AUG 7>22
9K ACK-EWB JUN 2>4 JUL 2>7 AUG 2>7
9K ACK-HPN JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>4 AUG 0>3
9K ACK-HYA MAY 8>10 JUN 8>12 JUL 7>14 AUG 7>14
9K ACK-MVY JUL 1.2>3 AUG 1.1>3
9K AUG-BOS JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
9K BHB-BOS JUN 3>1.0 JUL 3>1.0 AUG 3>1.0
9K BOS-MVY MAY 5>7 JUN 5>10 JUL 5>15 AUG 5>14
9K BOS-PVC JUN 4>6 JUL 4>11 AUG 4>11
9K BOS-RKD JUN 3>5 JUL 3>6 AUG 3>6
9K BOS-SLK JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
9K EWB-MVY JUL 1.0>4 AUG 1.0>3
9K HPN-MVY JUL 0.3>1.9 AUG 0.3>1.8
9K HYA-MVY JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3

9X FKL-PIT JAN 3>4

Seems to me they are still down net 7 roundtrips from DCA, even with adds
AA DCA-BDL APR 7>6 MAY 7>6 JUN 7>5 JUL 7>5 AUG 7>5
AA DCA-CAE APR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
AA DCA-DAY JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
AA DCA-EYW MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.3 JUL 1.0>0.3 AUG 1.0>0.2
*AA DCA-GRR APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.9 JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>1.8 AUG 0>1.9
AA DCA-HPN APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
AA DCA-MSY APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
AA DCA-RDU JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7 AUG 8>7
AA DCA-RSW MAR 4>3 APR 1.2>2 AUG 1.0>0.7
AA DCA-SYR APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
*AA DCA-XNA APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
AA DFW-PBC APR 0.9>1.0 MAY 0.8>1.0
**AA LAX-ANC JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.7
AA LGA-RIC MAR 5>4 APR 5>3 MAY 5>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
Strange the Cuba cuts announced are not loaded. Hmm...
AA MIA-FPO APR 3>1.9
AA MIA-NAS APR 7>6
AA MIA-SAP APR 1.9>2 MAY 1.8>2
AA ORD-MBJ APR 0.7>0.8
AA PHX-SGU MAR 1.0>1.9 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2

JV fight causes delay?
*AM DTW-MTY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0

AS PDX-FAT JUN 1.9>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.8>1.0
AS SEA-GEG JUL 16>15 AUG 16>15

B0 EWR-CDG MAR 1.4>1.6 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2

DL BMI-MSP FEB 1.2>0.8 MAR 1.7>0.9
DL CVG-RDU MAR 3>1.7 APR 3>1.6 MAY 3>1.6 JUN 3>1.7 JUL 3>1.4 AUG 3>1.7
DL DTW-AMS MAR 4>3
DL LAX-SJD FEB 1.4>1.2 MAR 2>1.4
DL MSP-AMS MAR 3>2
DL SLC-COD APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
DL SLC-GJT MAR 1.2>3 APR 0.8>3 MAY 0.9>3 JUN 0.9>3 JUL 0.8>3 AUG 0.9>3
DL SLC-LWS MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
DL SLC-SGU JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4

DY FLL-LGW MAY 0.2>0.3 JUN 0.1>0.3 JUL 0.1>0.3 AUG 0.2>0.3
DY JFK-LGW AUG 1.0>1.6
DY LAX-LGW APR 0.7>0.9 MAY 0.7>1.0 JUN 0.7>1.0 JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>1.0
DY MCO-LGW MAY 0.3>0.4 JUN 0.3>0.4 JUL 0.3>0.4 AUG 0.3>0.5
DY OAK-LGW APR 0.4>0.6 MAY 0.4>0.7 JUN 0.4>0.7 JUL 0.5>0.7 AUG 0.4>0.7

EI BOS-SNN MAR 0.8>0.7

F9 ORD-SFO FEB 0.9>0.6 MAR 0.9>0.6 APR 0.6>0.4

FI BOS-KEF MAY 1.9>1.7
FI JFK-KEF MAY 1.8>1.7

G4 AZA-CLE MAY 0.3>0.0
G4 AZA-DSM JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 AZA-GFK MAY 0.3>0.1 JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.2 AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 AZA-GRI MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 AZA-STC JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3 AUG 0.6>0.3
G4 BGR-PIE MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3 AUG 0.6>0.3
G4 BGR-SFB MAY 0.7>0.4 JUN 0.7>0.4 JUL 0.7>0.5 AUG 0.7>0.4
G4 BIS-LAS MAY 0.5>0.0
G4 BOI-LAX MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3
G4 CLE-PIE JUL 0.6>0.4
G4 DAY-PIE MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 ELM-SFB MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 FAR-LAS MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 FLL-ROC MAY 0.3>0.0
G4 GRR-SFB MAY 0.6>0.4 JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3
G4 IAG-PGD MAY 0.6>0.3 JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3
G4 IAG-SFB MAY 0.6>0.3 JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3
G4 IND-MSY MAY 0.3>0.1
G4 LAS-MCI JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 LAX-PVU MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 LCK-PIE JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 0.6>0.4
G4 MCI-PIE MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.5>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 PBG-SFB MAY 0.8>0.3 JUN 0.9>0.3 JUL 0.9>0.3 AUG 0.8>0.3
G4 PGD-PIA MAY 0.5>0.3
G4 PGD-PIT JUL 0.6>0.4
G4 PGD-PSM MAY 0.6>0.4 JUN 0.6>0.3 JUL 0.6>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3
G4 PGD-SBN JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 PIE-PSM MAY 0.3>0.1
G4 PIE-SYR MAY 0.5>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3
G4 SFB-SJU JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.4>0.6 AUG 0.4>0.5
G4 SFB-TTN MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3

HA HNL-JHM JAN 0.9>0
HA HNL-LIH JUN 20>19 JUL 20>19 AUG 20>19

J1 BDL-PIT JAN 1.6>1.1 FEB 3>1.4 MAR 0.3>0.2

LA JFK-SCL FEB 1.4>1.2

NK YOY Changes
NK rolled their schedule to August. I don't think any of this was unknown?
NK BOS-MCO JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK BWI-RSW JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK BWI-TPA JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK CAK-FLL JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK CAK-LAS JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK CAK-MCO JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK CAK-MYR JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK DTW-LAX JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
NK EWR-FLL JUN 0>4 JUL 0>4 AUG 0>4
NK EWR-MCO JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2
NK EWR-MYR JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK FLL-HAV JUN 0>2 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2
NK FLL-KIN JUN 0.3>0.6 JUL 0.3>0.6 AUG 0.3>0.5
NK FLL-MSY JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
NK IAG-MCO JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK IAH-MCO JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
NK LAX-OAK JUN 2>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4
NK MCI-MCO JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK MCO-MSP JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK MCO-PBG JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK MCO-PHL JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

SY MSP-CUN JAN 3>1.9

UA DEN-DFW APR 4>5
UA EWR-DUB MAR 1.6>1.0
*UA EWR-HAM JAN 0.5>0.2 FEB 0.5>0 MAR 0.8>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0.9
UA EWR-IND MAY 7>6 JUN 7>6 JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6
UA IAD-DAY MAR 1.9>1.2
UA IAD-PVD MAR 1.5>0.7
*UA IAH-MUC JAN 0.7>0.2 FEB 0.7>0 MAR 0.8>0
UA IAH-PVR MAY 1.3>1.5 JUN 1.9>3
This seems like a filing mistake?
*UA ORD-ORF APR 3>1.2 MAY 5>0.4 JUN 5>0.3 JUL 5>0.3 AUG 5>0.1

UP FLL-NAS JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5

VS MCO-LGW APR 1.9>2

WP HNL-KOA FEB 5>6 MAR 5>6 APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
WP HNL-OGG FEB 6>7 MAR 6>7 APR 6>7 MAY 6>7 JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7

WS LAS-YYJ JAN 0.3>0.1

enilria wrote:

Seems to me they are still down net 7 roundtrips from DCA, even with adds

I suspect some of this is upgauging to 2-class RJs - we'll see if this clears the way for some additional routes/flights.

enilria wrote:

**AA LAX-ANC JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.7

Not all that newsworthy - just the seasonal resumption of the route that started last summer.

enilria wrote:

AA PHX-SGU MAR 1.0>1.9 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2

As rumored.

I think LAX-ANC is a normal seasonal route now, not new service.

And PHX-SGU must be doing well for an increase after only 1 month so far of service.

enilria wrote:

**AA LAX-ANC JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.7
AA PHX-SGU MAR 1.0>1.9 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2

Isn't ANC a seasonal return?

Good to see SGU up to 2x already, that route launched last month.

Edit...saw the picture banner and missed those first two replies above it.

SY has yet to announce a start date and schedule to Cuba. With all the cutbacks on service to Cuba I can see them not starting service at all.

enilria wrote:

This seems like a filing mistake?
*UA ORD-ORF APR 3>1.2 MAY 5>0.4 JUN 5>0.3 JUL 5>0.3 AUG 5>0.1

Indeed, still 3x or 4x daily bookable until next fall.

I thought PHX - ANC was rumored to be seasonal as well. Is PHX - ANC permanently gone?

Vctony wrote:

I thought PHX - ANC was rumored to be seasonal as well. Is PHX - ANC permanently gone?

No - at least not as of now. All three of AA's seasonal ANC routes that operated this past summer - DFW, LAX and PHX - are live and available for sale for next summer. In fact, not that it's necessarily representative given how far out the schedules are, but LAX and PHX both appear to have been upgauged to 737s from the A319s that were operated on both routes during summer 2016. (AA's long-running DFW-ANC, meanwhile, remains a 757.)

Vctony wrote:

I thought PHX - ANC was rumored to be seasonal as well. Is PHX - ANC permanently gone?

It looks like it will remain seasonal and is up-gauging from a 319 to a 738; the schedule has been updated as follows:

AA1596 PHX 17:15 ANC 21:51 738 02JUN-21AUG
AA2569 ANC 00:59 PHX 07:26 738 03JUN-22AUG

WN summer seasonal service to ANC is rumored to be on the horizon.

enilria wrote:

NK LAX-OAK JUN 2>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4

Makes me wonder if NK is trying to attract the frugal NorCal biz travelers....

klm617 wrote:

JV fight causes delay?
*AM DTW-MTY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0


I was always skeptical that this would ever start and still don't believe it will. But if it does by some sort of miracle it won't last very long with Delta being heavy handed in not wanting their airline partners to serve the Detroit market.

Care to try to reconcile that assertion with VS and AF flights departing DTW today?

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

Seems to me they are still down net 7 roundtrips from DCA, even with adds

I suspect some of this is upgauging to 2-class RJs - we'll see if this clears the way for some additional routes/flights.

I suspect that, as has often been said, much of the value in the slots at LGA & DCA has been in the ability to keep competitors out and artificially restrict capacity. AA/US management's protestations about how being forced to divest DCA slots in order to gain antitrust clearance would necessitate the end of service to smaller markets were always just crocodile tears; the goal was always to keep lower-cost/lower-fare competitors out of DCA.

My guess is that since AA is only required to use their DCA slots 80% of the time, they are choosing to constrain capacity and push fares up.

enilria wrote:

JV fight causes delay?
*AM DTW-MTY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0

I agree, but I expect that's primarily because it's a shift from DL Connection to AM. The point-of-sale is almost certainly U.S.-biased due to the automobile industry traffic; swapping the flight from DL* to AM means that all the revenue & profit go from DL to AM if there's no JV in place.

usflyguy wrote:

WN summer seasonal service to ANC is rumored to be on the horizon.

WN to anchorage has been rumored for like 15 years

ScottB wrote:

I suspect that, as has often been said, much of the value in the slots at LGA & DCA has been in the ability to keep competitors out and artificially restrict capacity.

Some call it "artificially restrict[ing] capacity," while others call it "maintaining air service to small and mid-size markets."

When the divestitures occurred, AA claimed that being forced to give up slots would necessitate reduced or eliminated capacity in small markets. And that is exactly what happened - multiple small and mid-sized cities lost DCA service altogether, several of which still have yet to see it return. Thankfully, upgauging has allowed AA to reduce frequency in some markets while keeping capacity relatively flat, freeing up slots for reallocation in some small markets (and some large ones where AA injected additional competition, like ATL). On the flip side, Southwest and JetBlue certainly used those divested slots to add lots of new capacity - all to large cities that already had one, and in almost all cases multiple, nonstop competitions from WAS metro.

One's opinion about the relative costs and benefits, holistically, of one offering versus another - in terms of overall public benefit - is highly subjective.

ScottB wrote:

My guess is that since AA is only required to use their DCA slots 80% of the time, they are choosing to constrain capacity and push fares up.

I highly doubt it. I strongly suspect that if AA has slots available, it will be using them. But we shall see.

phatfarmlines wrote:

enilria wrote:

NK LAX-OAK JUN 2>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4

Makes me wonder if NK is trying to attract the frugal NorCal biz travelers....

Or perhaps Spirit is expecting to see another carrier on that route next year, such as AS?

bb

So HA not going into Kapalua now? Delay or change of heart?

ScottB wrote:

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

Seems to me they are still down net 7 roundtrips from DCA, even with adds

I suspect some of this is upgauging to 2-class RJs - we'll see if this clears the way for some additional routes/flights.

I suspect that, as has often been said, much of the value in the slots at LGA & DCA has been in the ability to keep competitors out and artificially restrict capacity. AA/US management's protestations about how being forced to divest DCA slots in order to gain antitrust clearance would necessitate the end of service to smaller markets were always just crocodile tears; the goal was always to keep lower-cost/lower-fare competitors out of DCA.

My guess is that since AA is only required to use their DCA slots 80% of the time, they are choosing to constrain capacity and push fares up.

enilria wrote:

JV fight causes delay?
*AM DTW-MTY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0

I agree, but I expect that's primarily because it's a shift from DL Connection to AM. The point-of-sale is almost certainly U.S.-biased due to the automobile industry traffic; swapping the flight from DL* to AM means that all the revenue & profit go from DL to AM if there's no JV in place.

AM was going to add a flight on the route in addition to DL's existing service. It was going to be an E90 at a complementary schedule to DL's DL operates a E75 morning depature from DTW, afternoon return from MTY. AM was going to operate a morning departure from MTY with an afternoon DTW departure.

NK also should include DTW-DFW 1>2 next summer. Generally NK makes adds at DTW this time of year, so it'll be interesting to see what is next, whether it be a current NK station or somewhere new. The MX hangar will help alleviate the congestion which could be restraining growth for NK at DTW.

wn676 wrote:

Vctony wrote:

I thought PHX - ANC was rumored to be seasonal as well. Is PHX - ANC permanently gone?

It looks like it will remain seasonal and is up-gauging from a 319 to a 738; the schedule has been updated as follows:

AA1596 PHX 17:15 ANC 21:51 738 02JUN-21AUG
AA2569 ANC 00:59 PHX 07:26 738 03JUN-22AUG

Both PHX and LAX will now run for the full season as opposed to the smaller schedule DFW does.

wn676 wrote:

Good to see SGU up to 2x already, that route launched last month

I believe OO originally forecast the route at something like 120-135 PDEW and it certainly has been a good performer. Out of SGU has been about a 85-90 % LF and from PHX has been averaging 80%.

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

**AA LAX-ANC JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.7

Not all that newsworthy - just the seasonal resumption of the route that started last summer.

Oh well, they hadn't previously loaded it and I didn't remember it.

commavia wrote:

Some call it "artificially restrict[ing] capacity," while others call it "maintaining air service to small and mid-size markets."

When the divestitures occurred, AA claimed that being forced to give up slots would necessitate reduced or eliminated capacity in small markets. And that is exactly what happened - multiple small and mid-sized cities lost DCA service altogether, several of which still have yet to see it return. Thankfully, upgauging has allowed AA to reduce frequency in some markets while keeping capacity relatively flat, freeing up slots for reallocation in some small markets (and some large ones where AA injected additional competition, like ATL). On the flip side, Southwest and JetBlue certainly used those divested slots to add lots of new capacity - all to large cities that already had one, and in almost all cases multiple, nonstop competitions from WAS metro.

One's opinion about the relative costs and benefits, holistically, of one offering versus another - in terms of overall public benefit - is highly subjective.

Agree 100%. With the 50 seaters going away there will be greater temptation to use the 80% rule to cut departures.

SANFan wrote:

phatfarmlines wrote:
enilria wrote:
NK LAX-OAK JUN 2>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4

Makes me wonder if NK is trying to attract the frugal NorCal biz travelers....

Or perhaps Spirit is expecting to see another carrier on that route next year, such as AS?

I assume I missed that this was new? Or was this done previously? I thought I remembered it.

commavia wrote:

When the divestitures occurred, AA claimed that being forced to give up slots would necessitate reduced or eliminated capacity in small markets. And that is exactly what happened - multiple small and mid-sized cities lost DCA service altogether, several of which still have yet to see it return. Thankfully, upgauging has allowed AA to reduce frequency in some markets while keeping capacity relatively flat, freeing up slots for reallocation in some small markets (and some large ones where AA injected additional competition, like ATL). On the flip side, Southwest and JetBlue certainly used those divested slots to add lots of new capacity - all to large cities that already had one, and in almost all cases multiple, nonstop competitions from WAS metro.

To summarize:
* It's awesome when AA cuts service to small markets but uses the slots in already-well-served airport-pair markets like DCA-ATL because they are "inject[ing] additional competition" but when B6 & WN add service to "large cities that already had one, and in almost all cases multiple, nonstop competitions from WAS metro" (of course, "WAS metro" not necessarily meaning DCA) the additional competition is superfluous.
* The availability of slots due to upgauging and frequency reductions in some markets doesn't mean the return of service in small, supposedly critical markets because, um, er, um, no reason (apart from using the slot restrictions to constrain overall capacity).

ScottB wrote:

To summarize:
* It's awesome when AA cuts service to small markets but uses the slots in already-well-served airport-pair markets like DCA-ATL because they are "inject[ing] additional competition" but when B6 & WN add service to "large cities that already had one, and in almost all cases multiple, nonstop competitions from WAS metro" (of course, "WAS metro" not necessarily meaning DCA) the additional competition is superfluous.
* The availability of slots due to upgauging and frequency reductions in some markets doesn't mean the return of service in small, supposedly critical markets because, um, er, um, no reason (apart from using the slot restrictions to constrain overall capacity).

I never said anything was "awesome."

It's unclear, and impossible to prove, that AA "[cut] service to small markets" to fund DCA-ATL - but it is impossible to deny that AA ended service in multiple small markets when it was forced to divest slots.

And I never used the word "critical" to describe any market - big or small.

We all approach these discussions with our own biases, and with that in mind, and given that there is absolutely no point wasting time rehashing arguments already well-covered in the past, I'll just leave it as it is - if the above is how you choose to summarize my points, then so be it.

enilria wrote:

DY LAX-LGW APR 0.7>0.9 MAY 0.7>1.0 JUN 0.7>1.0 JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>1.0

Summer demand must be surging between LAX and LON to support 11 daily flights, with UA going double daily and VS going 3X daily. One has to wonder whether BA will retaliate with their own flight to LGW a la OAK.

Those are some massive additions by Cape Air.

32andBelow wrote:

usflyguy wrote:

WN summer seasonal service to ANC is rumored to be on the horizon.

WN to anchorage has been rumored for like 15 years

WN to ANC sounds pretty odd. the only clever add i can think of is OAK.

AS PDX-FAT JUN 1.9>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.8>1.0

I find it interesting that this route is reduced for the summer. Is this typical and I'm just ignorant? Probably.

phatfarmlines wrote:

enilria wrote:
NK LAX-OAK JUN 2>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4


Makes me wonder if NK is trying to attract the frugal NorCal biz travelers....


Or perhaps Spirit is expecting to see another carrier on that route next year, such as AS?

I doubt AS will start up OAK-LAX, especially with three other airlines vying for passengers. For NK to increase frequency to LAX shows that there is a strong market there. As for AS, I can see them resuming OAK-SNA and maybe start OAK-SAN, OAK-BUR or OAK-ONT, which they served about 20 or even 30 years ago.

wedgetail737 wrote:

AS PDX-FAT JUN 1.9>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.8>1.0

I find it interesting that this route is reduced for the summer. Is this typical and I'm just ignorant? Probably.

The 2nd flight has always been a summer seasonal, the other operates year-round. AS just decided not to operate it next summer. The reasons are unclear as those flights were generally full last summer, and while the E175 that just took over the CRJ on all FAT routes is slightly larger, it only adds a total of 36 seats per day. Airline margins are so thin, though, that those 36 seats might be the difference between being profitable or not when it comes to deciding to add another flight to the market. It does look like SAN will still operate 3X per day (up from 2X) from May-August.

If AA does indeed have 8 open slots, there are a few cities that I'm surprised AA doesn't serve at all from DCA: MKE, YUL, OKC, and IAH/HOU come to mind.

Thanks as always for the info.

enilria wrote:

*AA DCA-XNA APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

Good for us? Guess a certain retailer's traffic is helping to pull this one to XNA. I'd imagine a few ORD or DFW flights would be down-gauged to compensate.

GSP psgr wrote:

If AA does indeed have 8 open slots, there are a few cities that I'm surprised AA doesn't serve at all from DCA: MKE, YUL, OKC, and IAH/HOU come to mind.

HOU metro is now by far the largest U.S. population center within the DCA perimeter not served by AA from DCA (and, incidentally, it's also the largest U.S. population center not served by AA from NYC).

jb1087xna wrote:

I'd imagine a few ORD or DFW flights would be down-gauged to compensate.

We'll see. If anything, the existing AA route that would likely take the most hit in terms of connecting traffic flows is CLT, not ORD or DFW. But given AA's strength at both ends of the XNA-DCA route, I'm not sure if this will necessarily result in reduced capacity to either ORD or DFW.

commavia wrote:

GSP psgr wrote:

If AA does indeed have 8 open slots, there are a few cities that I'm surprised AA doesn't serve at all from DCA: MKE, YUL, OKC, and IAH/HOU come to mind.

HOU metro is now by far the largest U.S. population center within the DCA perimeter not served by AA from DCA (and, incidentally, it's also the largest U.S. population center not served by AA from NYC).

Wow, that's pretty interesting. I think we will see a lot of connections of DCA, NYC and LAX from AA. For example, MSY doesn't have NYC (just got LAX) with AA. Traditionally legacy-AA just forced connections through DFW for MSY, IAH/HOU, etc. that is changing now with the new AA.

jbs2886 wrote:

Wow, that's pretty interesting. I think we will see a lot of connections of DCA, NYC and LAX from AA. For example, MSY doesn't have NYC (just got LAX) with AA. Traditionally legacy-AA just forced connections through DFW for MSY, IAH/HOU, etc. that is changing now with the new AA.

HOU metro (likely IAH) is definitely a market that would seem to make sense for AA out of NYC (LGA), slots allowing. Like DEN, it's a very large local market with a healthy business travel component, and it's also a market where AA is a fairly strong presence after the local hub carrier (United in both cases, obviously).

As for MSY - yes, this seems like a no-brainer, and I personally believe it's just a matter of time. Even if just a weekend-only flight, MSY is a large O&D market, at least in season, and seems like it should be able to support an AA nonstop to LGA with at least a 175. MSY is one of several leisure markets - also including AUA and NAS - that I could plausibly see AA adding - seasonally, Saturday/weekend-only out of LGA.

Any idea what flight is cut on DTW-AMS in March?

commavia wrote:

[
HOU metro is now by far the largest U.S. population center within the DCA perimeter not served by AA from DCA (and, incidentally, it's also the largest U.S. population center not served by AA from NYC).

AA used to, at least through the early-mid 00's, ran LGA-HOU-AUS service (and the reverse AUS-HOU-LGA). AUS is just outside of the LGA perimeter (which drives me mad) so it provided a one-seat way fro me to travel from AUS to LGA and back. To my recollection, it ran three times daily, at least at times, and I want to say the flight numbers in one direction may have been 1681/1683/1685, but I don't trust my memory entirely on that.

Having the HOU-AUS tag really went against AA's cornerstone strategy, although I think these flights may have ceased prior to the official cornerstone strategy. I am not sure if HOU-LGA survived for a while on its own, or if the whole routing was dropped at the same time.

commavia wrote:

jb1087xna wrote:

I'd imagine a few ORD or DFW flights would be down-gauged to compensate.

We'll see. If anything, the existing AA route that would likely take the most hit in terms of connecting traffic flows is CLT, not ORD or DFW. But given AA's strength at both ends of the XNA-DCA route, I'm not sure if this will necessarily result in reduced capacity to either ORD or DFW.

Yes, CLT is right. I always forget about that route.

pilotfox wrote:

Any idea what flight is cut on DTW-AMS in March?

The DTW-AMS & MSP-AMS flight changes in the OAG thread aren't a cut per-say but are an adjustment in the timing of when they shift from the winter to summer schedule and add back the incremental flights. Considering the weakness in TATL and how DL has given guidance they are going to decrease Q1 TATL capacity, they pushed the seasonal shift back to April 1.
This goes along with DL's typical scheduling strategy where they load a schedule in advance and then trim-down frequency and push-back seasonal start dates as they get the schedule refined closer-in.

DL has historically flown DTW-AMS 3x and MSP-AMS 2x during winter months but every year makes adjustments into the timing of exactly when they add the incremental flights back for the spring/summer season. Some years they've done in March, now they've adjusted it to be April.

DL is operating:
DTW-AMS at 3x and going to 4x on April 1
MSP-AMS at 2x with the KLM 3/weekly starting on 3/27 and the 3rd DL flight being added on 4/1

Re: The extra 8 slots AA apparently has at DCA now. Wasn't it earlier this year there was some hemming and hawing about AA not having enough slots for DCA-ISP and AA trying to get some extra slots to serve the route or am I officially senile at this point?

2 per day morning/evening in each direction would give ISP some more connecting opportunities not to mention some O&D. Can't let WN have all the fun ISP-BWI.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

pilotfox wrote:

Any idea what flight is cut on DTW-AMS in March?

The DTW-AMS & MSP-AMS flight changes in the OAG thread aren't a cut per-say but are an adjustment in the timing of when they shift from the winter to summer schedule and add back the incremental flights. Considering the weakness in TATL and how DL has given guidance they are going to decrease Q1 TATL capacity, they pushed the seasonal shift back to April 1.
This goes along with DL's typical scheduling strategy where they load a schedule in advance and then trim-down frequency and push-back seasonal start dates as they get the schedule refined closer-in.

DL has historically flown DTW-AMS 3x and MSP-AMS 2x during winter months but every year makes adjustments into the timing of exactly when they add the incremental flights back for the spring/summer season. Some years they've done in March, now they've adjusted it to be April.

DL is operating:
DTW-AMS at 3x and going to 4x on April 1
MSP-AMS at 2x with the KLM 3/weekly starting on 3/27 and the 3rd DL flight being added on 4/1

Thanks!

Why no ANC to ORD? AA has given this to UA and AS. AA serves LAX, PHX, and DFW, but skips the upper Midwest and northeast. I'm sure the people in FTW know what they are doing.

globalcabotage wrote:

Why no ANC to ORD? AA has given this to UA and AS. AA serves LAX, PHX, and DFW, but skips the upper Midwest and northeast. I'm sure the people in FTW know what they are doing.

AA flew ORD-ANC for a few years seasonally about a decade ago. I doubt it'll come back with codeshare buddies AS on it.

The reality is that AA has never exhibited much interest in ANC. Both times that AA has absorbed airlines with strong year-round Anchorage service they've either cut it altogether (QQ's ANC service back in the 90's) or knocked it to seasonal (US's PHX-ANC service). TW also had seasonal STL-ANC, but they cut just about everything at STL.

That said, AS flies PHX-ANC as a winter seasonal (Alaskans love Arizona almost as much as Hawaii), so the market has year-round coverage between AA and AS.

usflyer123 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

usflyguy wrote:

WN summer seasonal service to ANC is rumored to be on the horizon.

WN to anchorage has been rumored for like 15 years

WN to ANC sounds pretty odd. the only clever add i can think of is OAK.

If B6 can fill up planes on SEA-ANC and PDX-ANC, WN can too. ANC-DEN would be another good one...possibly OAK too as you suggested.

"*UA EWR-HAM JAN 0.5>0.2 FEB 0.5>0 MAR 0.8>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0.9"

Thanks for posting this. Looks like United is withdrawing from the EWR-HAM market. I took this flight last summer and was booked on it in April. Reservations confirmed the market withdrawal with me. If I didn't see this when rechecking my reservation it appeared like they were going to leave me hanging at EWR but it all worked out for the better as United was able to rebook me with a partner carrier out of DFW thru FRA.

freakyrat wrote:

"Looks like United is withdrawing from the EWR-HAM market.

Its merely a seasonal cut like many Atlantic routes. As you can see they are back in the spring.

flymco753 wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

klm617 wrote:

Maybe from the cooperate stand point they are metal neutral but from the customer experience they are not. If that were true then all the JV partners would all be operating a rotation into DTW as they all have the same size aircraft as Delta. Let's just see how this plays out and see if AM ever lands in Detroit I'm very skeptical.

Joint ventures take many aspects into consideration and its done in totality of the whole scope of the agreement, not on individual routes.
The fact that the DL-AM JV is not net proceeding yet due to restrictions placed by the DOT/DOJ is reason why they aren't going to add the AM flight as they couldn't sell beyond feed in DTW yet.

How many times do we have to explain how JVs work? Also, do you see a conspiracy theory in everything where you believe that DL and the WCAA is out to screw you personally and everyone else???
Drop it.

Personally, I hate the metal neutrality on JV flights, I feel like airlines can't dictate who gets to fly where, but I understand why they do JV's, sometimes it's a good thing, most of the time it's bad if you want options in terms of paint jobs. I figured KL and VS will come back, it's a rotational thing, they come, go and come back, than go, and come back again.

KLM doesn't come and go. It's been out of DTW I think for a dozen plus years.

Thanks as always, enilria, for taking the time to compile and post this stuff.

enilria wrote:

Seems to me they are still down net 7 roundtrips from DCA, even with adds

I'd like to think perhaps MKE is on AA's list. With Southwest cutting DCA-MKE to 2x/day a few weeks ago (WN had to cut a handful of flights) there seems an opening.

Here are the top 50 O+D markets from DCA American could serve, meaning beyond-perimeter routes AA does not have rights to (such as SFO) are excluced.
These are Q2 2016 stats with average passengers per day each way and who flies it nonstop. American serves 42 of the top 50.

1 …… 1751 …… BOS …… AA B6
2 …… 1303 …… ORD …… AA UA
3 …… 1256 …… ATL ……. AA DL WN
4 …….. 988 …… MCO …… AA B6 WN
5 …….. 706 …… LGA …… AA DL
6 …….. 690 …… LAX …… AA AS
7 …….. 683 …… MIA …… AA
8 …….. 674 …… TPA …… AA B6 WN
9 …….. 667 …… FLL ……. AA B6 WN
10 …… 615 …… MSP …… AA DL
11 …… 601 …… DFW …… AA
12 …… 485 …… MDW …… WN
13 …… 468 …… DAL ……. WN
14 …… 453 …… MSY …… AA WN
15 …… 444 …… STL ….… AA WN
16 …… 411 …… DTW …… AA DL
17 …… 396 …… MCI ……. AA WN
18 …… 384 …… PHX …… AA
19 …… 378 …… BNA …… AA WN
20 …… 376 …… IND …… AA WN
21 …… 376 …… IAH …… UA
22 …… 352 …… JAX …… AA
23 …… 331 …… BDL …… AA B6
24 …… 306 …… CHS …… AA B6
25 …… 303 …… LAS …… AA
26 …… 289 …… CMH …… AA WN
27 …… 286 …… MKE …… WN
28 …… 282 …… HOU …… WN
29 …… 280 …… PBI …….. AA B6
30 …… 243 …… OMA …… DL WN
31 …… 234 …… RDU …… AA DL
32 …… 230 …… JFK ……. AA DL
33 …… 224 …… CLT ……. AA
34 …… 208 …… PVD …… AA WN
35 …… 201 …… CVG …… AA DL
36 …… 199 …… RSW …… AA B6
37 …… 154 …… MEM …… AA
38 …… 150 …… PWM …… AA
39 …… 131 …… EWR …… UA
40 …… 128 …… SDF …… AA
41 …… 126 …… CLE …… AA UA
42 …… 125 …… BHM …… AA
43 …… 122 …… HSV …… AA
44 …… 116 …… ALB …… AA
45 …… 111 …… DAY …… AA
46 …… 111 …… MHT …… AA
47 …… 108 …… BTV …… AA
48 …… 108 …… DSM …… AA
49 …… 100 …… BUF …… AA
50 …… 92 …….. MSN …… DL

Of the 8 American does not serve:
MDW, DAL EWR overlap AA hubs in the same metro (DFW, ORD, LGA/JFK)
OMA already has two nonstop competitors
MSN is probably too small for a second nonstop airline

That leaves Houston and Milwaukee.

Houston certainly is a large market, but the market is split between two airports and at either one they'd face an entrenched hub carrier who heavily dominates their airport. American uses IAH for everything (except some HOU-DFW) and a handful of AA regional jets DCA-IAH would pale against 8x on United. With only two Southwest DCA-MKE nonstops, a few American RJ's would match or surpass the WN schedule.


Here's a comparison of one-way weekly local passengers from DCA (O+D) versus the weekly capacity currently scheduled for this spring at several select airports. The O+D stats are actual from 2016 Q2.

O+D ....... seats
3105 …… 4893 …… 63.5% …… STL …… AA WN
2775 …… 3303 …… 84.0% …… MCI …… AA WN
2649 …… 4003 …… 66.2% …… BNA …… AA WN
2635 …… 4213 …… 62.5% …… IND …… AA WN
2634 …… 4876 …… 54.0% …… IAH …… UA
2465 …… 3248 …… 75.9% …… JAX …… AA
2320 …… 4463 …… 52.0% …… BDL …… AA B6
2139 …… 3143 …… 68.0% …… CHS …… AA B6
2026 …… 4225 …… 47.9% …… CMH …… AA WN
2001 …… 1859 ….. 107.6% …… MKE …… WN
1972 …… 2860 …… 68.9% …… HOU …… WN
1636 …… 3648 …… 44.8% …… RDU …… AA DL
1611 …… 4586 …… 35.12% …… JFK …… AA DL
1457 …… 4438 …… 32.82% …… PVD …… AA WN
1407 …… 2738 …… 51.37% …… CVG …… AA DL

With the reduction in DCA-MKE flying the local O+D market is 107.6% of the nonstop capacity scheduled. That's far more than most other markets, including both Houston airports. Of course both United and Southwest run connections through Houston, but there's ample capacity to handle all the local O+D plus more than a few connections.

The other thing worth noting in Milwaukee's favor is that DCA-MKE was 20% larger two years ago when the frequency was higher. I'm not talking a handful of years back when the YX/F9/FL/WN fare wars were underway but more recently when WN/FL had a monopoly and ran more flights. The 73G is a little big for DCA-MKE with relatively few connections on either end, and Southwest's loads have admittedly been soft in slower months with 3-4x. But with only 2x 73G now, a few RJ's to supplement are a better match, and the frequency and competition will stimulate the market.

Of course if AA does have some slots not spoken for they'll use them to increase frequency in existing markets or to add some unserved markets. But in my opinion with Southwest's cut to 2x the market is underserved, and a few RJ's seem like a good fit.

Perhaps they are first waiting to see if WN will shuffle their DCA schedule and run a third DCA-MKE nonstop in summer. We shall see...

Chugach wrote:

usflyer123 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

WN to anchorage has been rumored for like 15 years

WN to ANC sounds pretty odd. the only clever add i can think of is OAK.

If B6 can fill up planes on SEA-ANC and PDX-ANC, WN can too. ANC-DEN would be another good one...possibly OAK too as you suggested.

If WN were to fly to ANC, it probably would be seasonal to start out of OAK and maybe LAX and LAS. I don't think WN flies any redeyes. I would be surprised if they started SEA-ANC or PDX-ANC, but anything is possible.