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wwtraveler99
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:09 pm

[/quote]


Here's a comparison of one-way weekly local passengers from DCA (O+D) versus the weekly capacity currently scheduled for this spring at several select airports. The O+D stats are actual from 2016 Q2.

O+D ....... seats
3105 …… 4893 …… 63.5% …… STL …… AA WN
2775 …… 3303 …… 84.0% …… MCI …… AA WN
2649 …… 4003 …… 66.2% …… BNA …… AA WN
2635 …… 4213 …… 62.5% …… IND …… AA WN
2634 …… 4876 …… 54.0% …… IAH …… UA
2465 …… 3248 …… 75.9% …… JAX …… AA
2320 …… 4463 …… 52.0% …… BDL …… AA B6
2139 …… 3143 …… 68.0% …… CHS …… AA B6
2026 …… 4225 …… 47.9% …… CMH …… AA WN
2001 …… 1859 ….. 107.6% …… MKE …… WN
1972 …… 2860 …… 68.9% …… HOU …… WN
1636 …… 3648 …… 44.8% …… RDU …… AA DL
1611 …… 4586 …… 35.12% …… JFK …… AA DL
1457 …… 4438 …… 32.82% …… PVD …… AA WN
1407 …… 2738 …… 51.37% …… CVG …… AA DL
[/quote]

It would interesting if we could see what each carrier is doing in these markets. As an example in the RDU market 44.8% of the seats are local. But which carrier has more of the local market?

WW
 
commavia
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:25 pm

knope2001 wrote:
21 …… 376 …… IAH …… UA
28 …… 282 …… HOU …… WN


~650 PDEW - so as said, by far the largest U.S. O&D market not served by AA from DCA/WAS (and again, from LGA/NYC, too).
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 4:11 pm

enilria wrote:
NK MCO-MSP JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0



Flying this route year round now?

knope2001 wrote:


10 …… 615 …… MSP …… AA DL


SY flies 2x daily as well.
 
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 4:28 pm

commavia wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
21 …… 376 …… IAH …… UA
28 …… 282 …… HOU …… WN


~650 PDEW - so as said, by far the largest U.S. O&D market not served by AA from DCA/WAS (and again, from LGA/NYC, too).


Absolutely. The key questions are
Is it too large a Washington market for AA to not serve it nonstop?
Is it large enough for AA to carve out a niche given the 11 weekly nonstop flights it already has from UA and WN?

I thought that back before the merger US* launched both DCA-DFW and DCA-IAH with Houston only lasting briefly but I can't seem to find evidence of that. Regardless the question is what is the importance of Houston now to their DC base as well as what are the odds AA can find a niche there.

An additional challenge for American on DCA-IAH is that the nonstop DCA-IAH competitor has huge FF customer bases in both Washington and Houston. Obviously the Houston end has their UA bias where AA is an also-ran. But on the Washington side even those road warriors who prefer American's DCA nonstop offerings probably use United frequently as well, and United's eight daily DCA-IAH nonstop will be tough for AA to compete with when FF loyalty is little advantage.

Should AA start DCA-IAH I don't think anyone would be shocked. But I think there are reasons they have not yet done so, and it may not be #1 on their list. It apparently wasn't above Grand Rapids and NW Arkansas.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:03 pm

There are 3-4 other markets not listed above that AA could serve from DCA, namely YUL, YOW, YHZ and YQB.

YUL and YOW were served by CRJs until the slot divestiture. AA have just pulled the plug on YHZ-PHL, meaning they've exited the market entirely. YQB has been reduced to a seasonal station, but could potentially support a summer-seasonal CRJ once YQB's US customs pre-clearance is up and running.

Having said that, I can't see AA adding any of these, not even YUL.
 
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tb727
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:33 pm

mtnwest1979 wrote:
So HA not going into Kapalua now? Delay or change of heart?


TSA issue at Kapalua, should be back by the end of January.
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azjubilee
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:49 pm

mtnwest1979 wrote:
So HA not going into Kapalua now? Delay or change of heart?


Edit: As I was writing, looks like someone answered the question. All the waiting, hard work and effort that went into the re-launch, only to be spoiled by the TSA. Typical though... TSA dropping the ball.
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:11 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
If AA does indeed have 8 open slots, there are a few cities that I'm surprised AA doesn't serve at all from DCA: MKE, YUL, OKC, and IAH/HOU come to mind.


DCA-PNS is coming back 1x daily on April 4. It wasn't picked up in the OAG thread, but it's now for sale. AA had been flying it seasonally on the weekends only.

The daily route was dropped when AA divested slots for the merger. It will be flown by an E175 which is better than the CRJ's that had previously flown it.
 
freakyrat
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:44 pm

LAXintl wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
"Looks like United is withdrawing from the EWR-HAM market.


Its merely a seasonal cut like many Atlantic routes. As you can see they are back in the spring.


Reading the OAG changes is one of my monthly highlights on this site. I'm happy I read it and I checked my HAM booking and called UA Reservations immediately. They probably could have got me home on my original Reservation but could not get me to HAM. Anyway they have me rebooked on their Star Alliance Partner Airline and I do not have to go thru EWR.
 
graham697
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:50 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
It will be flown by an E175 which is better than the CRJ's that had previously flown it.


As a DCA EXP, I am dreaming of a station without CRJs. Bring us as many Republic E175s as they can muster, especially to DTW.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:17 am

enilria wrote:
*AA DCA-GRR APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.9 JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>1.8 AUG 0>1.9


Who would have ever thought that GRR would be one of the primary beneficiaries of the AA/US merger? Then again, GRR seems to have handled all of the major airline mergers exceptionally well.

enilria wrote:
*AA DCA-XNA APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0


On the other hand, I'm surprised it took so long for this route to come back - or that it was ever cut in the first place. Only after the threat of a trade war with China did the corporate interests in Northwest Arkansas decide they need a direct commercial aviation link to the powers that be in Washington?

enilria wrote:
**AA LAX-ANC JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.7


Had to see if B6 would throw in the towel before resuming the route?

enilria wrote:
AA PHX-SGU MAR 1.0>1.9 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2


It's great to see all these exciting additions at PHX, but I just can't look past the fact that DL did the same thing at MEM - regional expansion exploiting the hub's geography - before dehubbing that airport. However, the eternal optimist in me believes that small markets are the key to PHX's success and long term viability. To be sure, PHX is certainly a much stronger market than MEM for a variety of reasons. I can't help but wonder if it is time to consider a resumption of routes like ASE, BFL, BIL, COS, EUG, ICT, MFR and OKC? I also think the aforementioned GRR and XNA could be possibilities too, if only seasonally. Then there are the places like BDL, BNA, MSY, RDU and YYZ where AA is so much stronger than HP and US were that I think PHX service might just work, even if it didn't before.

enilria wrote:
NK BWI-RSW JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
NK BWI-TPA JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0


Does anyone else think SRQ is an excellent opportunity for NK? F9 is probably not interested after starting PGD, but NK seems very well positioned to finally fill that FL/WN void - what with service to/from top snowbird markets like BWI, DTW, IAG, MSP, ORD, PBG, etc., if only seasonally.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
alfa164
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:39 am

enilria wrote:
*AA DCA-XNA APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0


Can we nickname that one "The Lobbyist Express"? ;)
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I have decided to be cremated....
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Tue Dec 06, 2016 3:07 am

freakyrat wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
"Looks like United is withdrawing from the EWR-HAM market.


Its merely a seasonal cut like many Atlantic routes. As you can see they are back in the spring.


Reading the OAG changes is one of my monthly highlights on this site.

I have good news. It's weekly! 3 more times for your to enjoy!
alfa164 wrote:
Can we nickname that one "The Lobbyist Express"?

True. There are a few of those.
SurfandSnow wrote:
Had to see if B6 would throw in the towel before resuming the route?

Or it just sucked and they couldn't decide.
 
klwright69
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:22 am

Okay so UA is not withdrawing from HAM it's just a seasonal reduction. CO was in HAM for years and years with the 757, and then it was boosted to a 767. I hope UA does not leave HAM. The market should be big enough for one carrier. At least I would hope so.

I am not sure AA really wants more Houston to DC or NYC. It's probably a tough nut to crack. Also don't forget that AA has run JFK to IAH. AA has tinkered with Houston to New York.
 
phxtravelboy
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:27 pm

While I would love it if AA started MKE-DCA, I'm not going to hold my breathe. Their service to MKE, in my opinion, is just pathetic!! Their attempt at service is throwing a few 50 seat RJs at the market. Wow. PHL and ORD are only 50 seaters; of the 5 flights to CLT, 3 are 50 seaters and the other 2 the 90 seat RJ; PHX is now only 1 flight a day instead of 2. They don't even offer an E175 to MIA. So again, AA really doesn't give a rip about MKE unfortunately.
 
miaskies
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:39 am

graham697 wrote:
FlyPNS1 wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
It will be flown by an E175 which is better than the CRJ's that had previously flown it.


As a DCA EXP, I am dreaming of a station without CRJs. Bring us as many Republic E175s as they can muster, especially to DTW.


YX/Eagle will have 9 additional E175 currently being refurbished back on the line in January and 4 more being based on the east coast that were in ORD before come April 2017. So expected upgauges and maybe some new markets on the E175 with Republic/Eagle as we are seeing out of DCA in places like PHL, CLT, MIA, and LGA.
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Vctony
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 6:34 am

SurfandSnow wrote:

enilria wrote:
AA PHX-SGU MAR 1.0>1.9 APR 1.0>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2


It's great to see all these exciting additions at PHX, but I just can't look past the fact that DL did the same thing at MEM - regional expansion exploiting the hub's geography - before dehubbing that airport. However, the eternal optimist in me believes that small markets are the key to PHX's success and long term viability. To be sure, PHX is certainly a much stronger market than MEM for a variety of reasons. I can't help but wonder if it is time to consider a resumption of routes like ASE, BFL, BIL, COS, EUG, ICT, MFR and OKC? I also think the aforementioned GRR and XNA could be possibilities too, if only seasonally. Then there are the places like BDL, BNA, MSY, RDU and YYZ where AA is so much stronger than HP and US were that I think PHX service might just work, even if it didn't before.


I don't think PHX is going to end up like MEM. AA and the City of Phoenix have spent significant amounts of money on upgrading the Admirals Clubs, Gate Areas, Ramp Area, and AA is partnering with the TSA in PHX to trial new screening equipment. PHX is also moving forward with an 8 gate expansion of the "D" concourse of Terminal 4 (and the only domestic airlines to serve the terminal are AA and WN and it's pretty clear that WN's expansion plans are focused elsewhere) so it appears that AA may be behind that move.

AA seems focused, at least for the time being, on adding routes into PHX that are either exclusive to PHX or do not have WN competition. I do think that it's inevitable that BNA/OKC/RDU/TUL eventually get added due to AA's strength in these markets. One of the drawbacks holding them back right now is the need to route PHX based crews on A321s to DFW and CLT. Therefore, right now, there is such massive capacity on PHX-DFW and PHX-CLT and PHX uses this capacity to effectively serve BNA/OKC/RDU/TUL with PHX-DFW-BNA, PHX-DFW-OKC, PHX-CLT-RDU, and PHX-DFW-TUL routing. It's amazing how many PHX O/D passengers connect via DFW and CLT. Once the crews and A321s get rebased, it may actually open up the ability to serve these markets nonstop.
 
commavia
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:09 pm

miaskies wrote:
YX/Eagle will have 9 additional E175 currently being refurbished back on the line in January and 4 more being based on the east coast that were in ORD before come April 2017. So expected upgauges and maybe some new markets on the E175 with Republic/Eagle as we are seeing out of DCA in places like PHL, CLT, MIA, and LGA.


Good to hear. The overall competitiveness of AA's network definitely took a perceptible hit with the Republic retirements in the last year - lots of markets that were moving towards, or had fully transitioned to, all-2-class saw the return of 50-seat RJs. In recent schedule loads, we have started to see that trend reverse - which is good - and it will certainly be good to see this trend continue as more Republic 175s are returned to service, along with the rumored (confirmed?) ex-United Skywest CR7s.

AA needs to prioritize getting these 175s back onto routes with a substantial business component and/or intense competition. In my view, markets like LGA, DCA, RDU, and most of the large markets in the Northeast/Midwest (BDL, PVD, PWM, MHT, BTV, ALB, SYR, ROC, BUF, DTW, CMH, CLE, CVG, DAY, PIT, etc.) should be pretty much entirely 2-class - every flight, every route. As said, AA is definitely making progress - but it needs to keep moving in this direction, and fast.

Vctony wrote:
I don't think PHX is going to end up like MEM. AA and the City of Phoenix have spent significant amounts of money on upgrading the Admirals Clubs, Gate Areas, Ramp Area, and AA is partnering with the TSA in PHX to trial new screening equipment. PHX is also moving forward with an 8 gate expansion of the "D" concourse of Terminal 4 (and the only domestic airlines to serve the terminal are AA and WN and it's pretty clear that WN's expansion plans are focused elsewhere) so it appears that AA may be behind that move.

AA seems focused, at least for the time being, on adding routes into PHX that are either exclusive to PHX or do not have WN competition. I do think that it's inevitable that BNA/OKC/RDU/TUL eventually get added due to AA's strength in these markets. One of the drawbacks holding them back right now is the need to route PHX based crews on A321s to DFW and CLT. Therefore, right now, there is such massive capacity on PHX-DFW and PHX-CLT and PHX uses this capacity to effectively serve BNA/OKC/RDU/TUL with PHX-DFW-BNA, PHX-DFW-OKC, PHX-CLT-RDU, and PHX-DFW-TUL routing. It's amazing how many PHX O/D passengers connect via DFW and CLT. Once the crews and A321s get rebased, it may actually open up the ability to serve these markets nonstop.


I agree. The economic, demographic and geographic fundamentals of PHX in the context of AA's network are far, far more compelling and sustainable than MEM ever was for Delta. PHX is a huge population center with a significant amount of O&D. I think the point is a good one about PHX's network role to an extent being driven today by fleet and labor limitations that will soon go away. I also agree that in that context, some of the obvious potential markets to add would, indeed, be otherwise large AA stations like BNA, OKC and RDU. That said, I also think that this network optimization could be a bit of a 2-way street with some markets that are today entirely reliant on PHX for outbound connectivity across the AA network - like BUR and OAK - seeing the return of capacity to other hubs such as DFW. So ultimately, I still contend that the role PHX will come to play in the AA network is likely smaller than what it played for USAirways just owing to the reality of the far, far larger system of which it's now a part. But I'll also reiterate what I've said before - which is that I am more bullish about PHX than I was at the time of the merger, and happy to see investments being made there and new routes added. I think it's absolutely true that PHX's saving grace - or at least its most defensible and valuable asset - may well be its ability to connect small markets in the western U.S. that are (1) too small to be flown from LAX/DFW due to facility constraints, distance or opportunity cost, but also (2) too small to be served by Southwest and thus immune from that competitor's yield pressure on such connecting flows over PHX.
 
bobnwa
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:58 pm

klm617 wrote:
JV fight causes delay?
*AM DTW-MTY JAN 0.7>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0


I was always skeptical that this would ever start and still don't believe it will. But if it does by some sort of miracle it won't last very long with Delta being heavy handed in not wanting their airline partners to serve the Detroit market.

Could you give some valid examples of this?
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:29 pm

Vctony wrote:
I don't think PHX is going to end up like MEM. AA and the City of Phoenix have spent significant amounts of money on upgrading the Admirals Clubs, Gate Areas, Ramp Area, and AA is partnering with the TSA in PHX to trial new screening equipment. PHX is also moving forward with an 8 gate expansion of the "D" concourse of Terminal 4 (and the only domestic airlines to serve the terminal are AA and WN and it's pretty clear that WN's expansion plans are focused elsewhere) so it appears that AA may be behind that move.


Expanding D won't help AA a bit unless there are plans for an airside connector between the north and south sides on that end. But, shifting some WN capacity to "D West" will hopefully permit renovation of C, which is not very nice. Perhaps AA could spill on to C at some point.

Keep in mind also that IIRC the gate density on D is lower than on C, so if expansion of D leads to renovation of C, the total gate count may not increase much because C might lose some gates.

commavia wrote:
I think it's absolutely true that PHX's saving grace - or at least its most defensible and valuable asset - may well be its ability to connect small markets in the western U.S. that are (1) too small to be flown from LAX/DFW due to facility constraints, distance or opportunity cost, but also (2) too small to be served by Southwest and thus immune from that competitor's yield pressure on such connecting flows over PHX.


I agree, but I would add that there's also a question of opportunity cost in larger markets ex-LAX. I like connecting at LAX for something like BNA-SJC. While BNA-LAX and LAX-SJC both make sense, PHX should really handle that sort of connection, freeing LAX capacity for O&D and connections that, due to geography or O&D, no other hub can handle. PHX-China, for instance, is not in the cards.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
miaskies
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:48 pm

I agree! I think as the months progress we will start seeing more of that as well as a few surprises.Such as YX/Eagle continuing their Caribbean expansion from MIA with secondary Cuba markets launching in the Spring as well (Cienfuegos, and Camaguey for starters. Rumors we are hearing in base here at LGA (of course rumors in the airline industry are an every day thing): LGA-NAS (weekend), LGA-IAH, LGA-RSW, LGA-YHZ, LGA-MSY.

By the way, LGA-PBI launches 12-15-16 on the E175, wish us luck <and patience lol
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commavia
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:51 pm

miaskies wrote:
Rumors we are hearing in base here at LGA (of course rumors in the airline industry are an every day thing): LGA-NAS (weekend), LGA-IAH, LGA-RSW, LGA-YHZ, LGA-MSY.


Some of those sound quite interesting - LGA to NAS, IAH and MSY all seem quite plausible.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 6:28 pm

miaskies wrote:
I agree! I think as the months progress we will start seeing more of that as well as a few surprises.Such as YX/Eagle continuing their Caribbean expansion from MIA with secondary Cuba markets launching in the Spring as well (Cienfuegos, and Camaguey for starters. Rumors we are hearing in base here at LGA (of course rumors in the airline industry are an every day thing): LGA-NAS (weekend), LGA-IAH, LGA-RSW, LGA-YHZ, LGA-MSY.

By the way, LGA-PBI launches 12-15-16 on the E175, wish us luck <and patience lol


LGA-YHZ would be a shocker considering AA are closing YHZ in the new year.
 
wn676
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 6:28 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Expanding D won't help AA a bit unless there are plans for an airside connector between the north and south sides on that end. But, shifting some WN capacity to "D West" will hopefully permit renovation of C, which is not very nice. Perhaps AA could spill on to C at some point.

Keep in mind also that IIRC the gate density on D is lower than on C, so if expansion of D leads to renovation of C, the total gate count may not increase much because C might lose some gates.


The ultimate design for T4 has always included an N1-S1 (high A to high D) connector bridge, so adding that concourse could conceivably help AA if they wish to expand. There have been rumors in the local thread of AA looking to expand departures by over 30 flights, and we haven't seen much in the way of WN additions for quite a while with the possible exception of them leasing a gate for international arrivals next year. There is no definitive answer yet though as to who will occupy S1. All that is known right now is that it will be another 8-gate facility (ADG-III gates, or enough to accommodate 8 mainline aircraft); plans for the basement space (possible FIS) have not yet been finalized.

The gate density for all T4S concourses is the same; 8 gates on S2, S3, and S4. T4 as a whole has been undergoing an extensive renovation of sorts already for years now, from the many behind-the-scenes infrastructure improvements to water and sanitary sewer lines to facilitate the upgrading of food options in the concourses, to the ongoing terrazzo flooring project in all concourses, the remodeling of all restroom facilities, and the upgrading and replacement of much of the power and fiber infrastructure. If by renovating C you mean changes to the actual structure of the concourse (i.e., making S3 and S4 look like S2), that is something that is not planned and likely will not be for some time, if ever.
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JBAirwaysFan
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Re: OAG Changes 12/9/2016: AA Adds LAX-ANC

Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:58 pm

Wondering if AA will ever reinstate ISP-DCA. Heard it did well, maybe not as well as they said if they have upguaged to free up slots and not re-started yet.
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