commavia
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:26 am

atypical wrote:
The courts will repeat the same process that awarded VX the gates. Delta is unlikely to get either gate because they were found "unsuitable" before the DoJ awarded VX the gates.


But I guess that gets to my earlier question - who else, then? If, hypothetically, Alaska exited DAL, what other airline or airlines would want those gates?

The two most obvious possibilities seem, to me, to be JetBlue and Spirit. It's hard to imagine JetBlue wanting to take two gates at DAL - versus its current one at DFW - as JetBlue is (smartly) focused on JFK/BOS/FLL and, I suspect, uninterested in dumping yet more capacity into already-saturated DFW metro. Spirit, on the other hand, likely wouldn't be able to move because it would need more than the two gates available at DAL. So what other carriers does that leave? Maybe Frontier? Maybe one gate for JetBlue and one for Frontier? I suppose that would be plausible.
 
phluser
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:06 am

commavia wrote:
The two most obvious possibilities seem, to me, to be JetBlue and Spirit. It's hard to imagine JetBlue wanting to take two gates at DAL - versus its current one at DFW - as JetBlue is (smartly) focused on JFK/BOS/FLL and, I suspect, uninterested in dumping yet more capacity into already-saturated DFW metro. .


You never know. Look how much service it's adding into ATL this time, while it hasn't serviced it for years. It's ATL footprint will be larger than several other spokes (like PHL) pretty quickly. It could move BOS-DAL, then add DAL-MCO, FLL, TPA, LAS, LGB and JFK (or EWR). It would cover several leisure routes as well as the flights to hubs and make it work. Also possible if not, all of thos,e is it It could also squeeze in a DAL-BUF and CLE, like EWR, which I don't think WN covers out of DAL, basically adding new nonstop destinations and attractive for those that prefer to use DAL over DFW. The leisure cities (Central and South Florida and LAS) will be easier to fill flights, however, than say BUF, although it would compete with WN as well.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:33 am

phluser wrote:
You never know. Look how much service it's adding into ATL this time, while it hasn't serviced it for years. It's ATL footprint will be larger than several other spokes (like PHL) pretty quickly. It could move BOS-DAL, then add DAL-MCO, FLL, TPA, LAS, LGB and JFK (or EWR). It would cover several leisure routes as well as the flights to hubs and make it work. Also possible if not, all of thos,e is it It could also squeeze in a DAL-BUF and CLE, like EWR, which I don't think WN covers out of DAL, basically adding new nonstop destinations and attractive for those that prefer to use DAL over DFW. The leisure cities (Central and South Florida and LAS) will be easier to fill flights, however, than say BUF, although it would compete with WN as well.


commavia wrote:
atypical wrote:
The courts will repeat the same process that awarded VX the gates. Delta is unlikely to get either gate because they were found "unsuitable" before the DoJ awarded VX the gates.


But I guess that gets to my earlier question - who else, then? If, hypothetically, Alaska exited DAL, what other airline or airlines would want those gates?

The two most obvious possibilities seem, to me, to be JetBlue and Spirit. It's hard to imagine JetBlue wanting to take two gates at DAL - versus its current one at DFW - as JetBlue is (smartly) focused on JFK/BOS/FLL and, I suspect, uninterested in dumping yet more capacity into already-saturated DFW metro. Spirit, on the other hand, likely wouldn't be able to move because it would need more than the two gates available at DAL. So what other carriers does that leave? Maybe Frontier? Maybe one gate for JetBlue and one for Frontier? I suppose that would be plausible.


I don't think B6 has any interest in DAL whatsoever, and it serves no advantage over DFW. While I understand the comparison to ATL, I think there are a few key differences, namely: (1) WN's shrinking relevance in ATL, (2) NK's smaller operation in ATL compared to DFW, and (3) ATL's relative distance to B6's focus cities of BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO compared to Dallas, thus reducing ASM exposure compared to Dallas.

Frankly I think B6 is content with its token 2x BOS flights (specifically to appease the BOS-originating crowd), with perhaps FLL eventually added down the road (specifically to enhance its ever-growing FLL focus city).

Let's face it: Dallas is a total loser for B6. Its average fare on BOS-DFW was $156 during Q2 2016, which is horrendous. For comparison, every BOS-Florida market - which is 2/3 the distance - commanded a significantly higher average fare. It's hard to see how moving this market to DAL will make this any better, especially when WN is competing in the exact same market.

B6 has had the opportunity to expand at DFW, and has chosen not to. I don't see how a move to DAL would change this viewpoint, especially when considering that WN - LUV (Love) - calls the airport its home.
 
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atypical
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:04 am

commavia wrote:
But I guess that gets to my earlier question - who else, then? If, hypothetically, Alaska exited DAL, what other airline or airlines would want those gates?

The two most obvious possibilities seem, to me, to be JetBlue and Spirit. It's hard to imagine JetBlue wanting to take two gates at DAL - versus its current one at DFW - as JetBlue is (smartly) focused on JFK/BOS/FLL and, I suspect, uninterested in dumping yet more capacity into already-saturated DFW metro. Spirit, on the other hand, likely wouldn't be able to move because it would need more than the two gates available at DAL. So what other carriers does that leave? Maybe Frontier? Maybe one gate for JetBlue and one for Frontier? I suppose that would be plausible.


Spirit has 9 domestically and 1 internationally from DFW, maybe at best
Jet Blue has 2 or 3 flights a day from DFW so they could move easily
Frontier, they could move from DFW too.

Then these:

Allegiant Air
Sun Country
Boutique Air
Cape Air
Great Lakes
ViaAir
Ultimate Air Shuttle
Mesa

I wouldn't be surprised if Allegiant, Sun Country. and Mesa didn't try for those gates too. I don't think those gates will get lonely. IF someone proposes EAS service that might be bear some importance too
 
commavia
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:08 am

atypical wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if Allegiant, Sun Country. and Mesa didn't try for those gates too. I don't think those gates will get lonely. IF someone proposes EAS service that might be bear some importance too


I would. I'd guess that the size of the DFW metro market might be attractive to Allegiant, but the limited scale of just one or two gates for such a large market would be less so. Sun Country is certainly a well known brand with a longstanding presence in the market, but of course much of that is built on scheduled and charter international flights to Mexico and the Caribbean that obviously can't operate in or out of DAL. And I have no idea why Mesa, a mid-sized regional airline that exclusively operates branded service for larger network carriers, would have any use for a DAL gate. So, again, we're essentially back to JetBlue, Frontier or maybe Allegiant. As said - plausible, I suppose.
 
alfa164
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:25 am

atypical wrote:
Even if AS gives up the gates Delta is unlikely to receive them. The decision to award VX those gates also included language that stated that Delta was not a suitable candidate for those gates (neither was Southwest). If AS gives them up the DoJ will perform the same exercise as the one that awarded VX the gates..

I am not convinced that is a given. Two things have changed since the original award:

1) At the time of the original decision, Delta was flying from DAL, and awarding gates to them would mean a substantial expansion of their operations. Now Delta has lost their gates (pending the outcome of the lawsuit); failing to consider the possibility of allowing them to take over VX's current space might (again, might - depending on the outcome of the pending cases) eliminate them from Love. I don't think that ever was - or would be - the intent of the DoJ to eliminate DL from DAL, and allowing Delta to take then gates would solve that sticky issue.

2) The DoJ purposely eliminated WN (obviously, dominant already at DAL) and DL from the original decision with the specific hope of adding a "low cost" carrier to DAL. There seems to be a real possibility no other LCC will step up and request gate space there. That pretty much leaves WN (still almost a monopoly at DAL), AA (specifically divested of the gates), UA (who clearly abandoned their opportunity), or DL. If those are the actual possibilities, I believe DL has the best chance.

I do think it would be interesting to see if Sun Country might decide scheduled service from DAL would be a possibility, but I question whether they would have a profitable year-round market - and whether they would want to deploy their (limited number of) aircraft to test that market. Without FIS facilities, they would be limited to flying from airports that offer preclearance, or limited to flying domestically (MSP) only. Even if they were interested, I suspect their schedule would only need one of the two gates.

The only other possibility I see is Frontier. They seem to be erratic enough to try it... and probably abandon it quickly...
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rabadash
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:36 am

I've read a little on this elsewhere, but why does everyone assume AS will abandon DAL? If they do, does it really make sense for AS to operate those DCA & LGA flights out of DFW, or are people thinking those are on the chopping block also?
 
wedgetail737
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:42 am

rabadash wrote:
I've read a little on this elsewhere, but why does everyone assume AS will abandon DAL? If they do, does it really make sense for AS to operate those DCA & LGA flights out of DFW, or are people thinking those are on the chopping block also?


No data to support my opinion...just a thought...but I don't think AS needs DAL. There is nothing out there that says they can't serve both DAL and DFW. And I could be completely off my rocker. AS may decide retain DAL for the reason of maintaining flights to DCA and LGA. But a merger doesn't automatically give AS those slots. It will be interesting to see what happens.
 
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RWA380
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:37 am

redzeppelin wrote:
I think wedgetail737 means that AS will end the VX A320 Hawaii routes. That seems plausible. AS, as you point out, already has excellent Hawaii service, and may want to use the VX facilities at SFO/LAX for other purposes. They didn't buy VX for their Hawaiian network


wedgetail737 wrote:
This is just my opinion...I think AS will drop DAL and keep DFW. The only real worth for DAL is LGA. AS probably could do LGA and or additional DCA through a city a bit farther north than DAL...like OMA (remember HP)? Secondly, I think the SFO/LAX - Hawaii routes will disappear also.

Questions, though. At SEA, will VX co-locate with AS? Will they merge the two FF programs together while VX is still around?


My educated guesses are that AS will retain & augment both SFO & LAX flights to Hawaii. They will be replaced with 739's to HNL & likely new KOA flights & 738's to OGG & LIH in the long term.

In the short term both HNL & OGG routes will continue to operate as normal. AS has a strong position in the West Coast - Hawaii market & they just paid billions of dollars for their SFO & LAX hubs, they'll keep the routes & build upon their presence. Don't be surprised to see new one off routes.

Again my educated guess, AS will retain DAL gates & fly to both DCA & LGA, as well as SAN, LAX, SFO, PDX & SEA. Just my own personal guess. I would imagine the DFW flights will right size due to the changing code-share with AA, but will retain as well, due to AA connectivity.

Again my guess, is that SEA & PDX will be replaced on the VX route map by AS flights. I think A-320's will be kept on VX routes out of their other hubs & in my opinion, most Airbus will eventually go away as leases end. I am unable to speculate on the A-321's at this time, too many options.
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:04 am

RWA380 wrote:
I am unable to speculate on the A-321's at this time, too many options.


If they get rid of the A321neos prematurely, I'll be pissed.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Sooner787
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:43 pm

We have clients bummed about the prospect of VX service from DAL going away.
Majority of these clients are AAdvantage Platinum / Exec Platinum but routinely
grab the DAL-LGA or DCA flights because Love Field is a short drive from their
homes and the VX service is amazing.

Biggest challenge we have with booking VX is finding an open seat in first class
for clients booking last minute.

Here's hoping AS decides to consolidate the Dallas flights at Love Field.
 
TW787
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:52 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
We have clients bummed about the prospect of VX service from DAL going away.
Majority of these clients are AAdvantage Platinum / Exec Platinum but routinely
grab the DAL-LGA or DCA flights because Love Field is a short drive from their
homes and the VX service is amazing.

Biggest challenge we have with booking VX is finding an open seat in first class
for clients booking last minute.

Here's hoping AS decides to consolidate the Dallas flights at Love Field.


I think AS will stay at DAL and expand. As others have reported, VX is under utilizing the two gates compared to the rest of the airport, so there is some room to grow. Remember that the LGA and DCA slots have perimeter rules associated with them...where else would it make sense to use them?

That said, not quite sure what VX was thinking...opening a focus city that can never be more than 2 gates.
 
sxf24
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:28 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
AS may decide retain DAL for the reason of maintaining flights to DCA and LGA. But a merger doesn't automatically give AS those slots. It will be interesting to see what happens.


Yes, AS will retain VX's slots at DCA and LGA. AS is acquiring VX and there is a mechanism for within perimeter slots to transfer. The only slot that may require approval to transfer is SFO-DCA.
 
phxsanslcpdx
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:55 pm

RWA380 wrote:

Again my educated guess, AS will retain DAL gates & fly to both DCA & LGA, as well as SAN, LAX, SFO, PDX & SEA. Just my own personal guess. I would imagine the DFW flights will right size due to the changing code-share with AA, but will retain as well, due to AA connectivity.


This seemed like a good bet before the DOJ weighed in, maybe with SJC thrown into the mix from DAL. Now, the problem is that starting SAN-DAL means that AA could no longer put its code on AA's SAN-DFW flights. And they could no longer sell any beyond-DFW routings (not sure whether they're doing so now) unless they start their own SAN-DFW flights. Picking random days a month out, it looks like AS is selling 9 daily flights each way nonstop SAN-DFW, all operated by AA. Replacing that with one or two daily flights to DAL would be a big disservice to most of their San Diego customers. And it would probably upset AA. So assuming the AA-AS codeshare remains more-or-less intact aside from mandated changes, I don't see Alaska deciding to start SAN-DAL or SAN-DFW. I agree, though, that PDX & SEA seem like natural adds for AS at DAL.

And, for that matter, DFW-LAX and DFW-SFO might also make a lot of sense, since it would connect them into the AA codeshare at DFW and because these are major routes that corporate travelers might expect. It seems odd to think that maybe California's two biggest airlines would skip nonstop flights from California to DFW. But there's already enough competition on these routes that maybe Alaska will decide to sit them out... not sure.
 
alfa164
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:55 pm

RWA380 wrote:
Again my educated guess, AS will retain DAL gates & fly to both DCA & LGA, as well as SAN, LAX, SFO, PDX & SEA. Just my own personal guess. I would imagine the DFW flights will right size due to the changing code-share with AA, but will retain as well, due to AA connectivity.

Alaska only flies to SEA from DFW. I am not sure how much you can "right size" those flights; there are only two (sometimes only one) flights daily. I don't see AS running a split operation - both DAL and DFW - with such a limited schedule.
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msycajun
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:18 pm

Checking random dates, I see at least 3x to SEA and 2x to PDX - not a huge operation but not insignificant. I think AS would have a nice schedule in DAL if they moved those over and maybe add a SAN or SJC flight or two. They could probably keep a couple of flights to DFW for connecting purposes.
 
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atypical
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Sat Dec 10, 2016 7:18 am

alfa164 wrote:
atypical wrote:
Even if AS gives up the gates Delta is unlikely to receive them. The decision to award VX those gates also included language that stated that Delta was not a suitable candidate for those gates (neither was Southwest). If AS gives them up the DoJ will perform the same exercise as the one that awarded VX the gates..

I am not convinced that is a given. Two things have changed since the original award:

1) At the time of the original decision, Delta was flying from DAL, and awarding gates to them would mean a substantial expansion of their operations. Now Delta has lost their gates (pending the outcome of the lawsuit); failing to consider the possibility of allowing them to take over VX's current space might (again, might - depending on the outcome of the pending cases) eliminate them from Love. I don't think that ever was - or would be - the intent of the DoJ to eliminate DL from DAL, and allowing Delta to take then gates would solve that sticky issue.

2) The DoJ purposely eliminated WN (obviously, dominant already at DAL) and DL from the original decision with the specific hope of adding a "low cost" carrier to DAL. There seems to be a real possibility no other LCC will step up and request gate space there. That pretty much leaves WN (still almost a monopoly at DAL), AA (specifically divested of the gates), UA (who clearly abandoned their opportunity), or DL. If those are the actual possibilities, I believe DL has the best chance.

I do think it would be interesting to see if Sun Country might decide scheduled service from DAL would be a possibility, but I question whether they would have a profitable year-round market - and whether they would want to deploy their (limited number of) aircraft to test that market. Without FIS facilities, they would be limited to flying from airports that offer preclearance, or limited to flying domestically (MSP) only. Even if they were interested, I suspect their schedule would only need one of the two gates.

The only other possibility I see is Frontier. They seem to be erratic enough to try it... and probably abandon it quickly...


The DoJ would put themselves in a difficult position f they reversed themselves on Delta. First the reason for rejecting Delta is case record. It is one thing to make a public statement and then to reverse position on it. Assuming their position can be reversed, DoJ doesn't include potentially irrelevant information like this into a case. Information like this is kept to guide the courts in a future event the case is reopened. 2. The reason Delta was considered unsuitable has not changed. Had that changed then that would have opened up the situation. The DoJ would not want to request a reversal unless something has occurred that Delta has undergone extreme changes to justify the reversal. The difficulty for the DoJ to reverse itself would be not be any different than WN to reverse itself on the gates that Delta occupies now. 3. Even if the reversal on position would be insignificant, the DoJ is going to avoid taking any position and making any moves to change the fundamental situation in Dallas. Legally this has become a matter for the FAA. The DoJ is not going to make any waves that could impact the FAA investigation. If the role was reversed the DoJ would not want the FAA to make moves that would impact a matter the the DoJ was responsible for and the FAA was not participating. The FAA is investigating two large issues at DAL and only one of them is the Delta gates.
 
rabadash
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Sat Dec 10, 2016 9:13 am

Based on VX and AS current schedules out of DFW/DAL, this is what I found:
SEA [email protected]
PDX x2 @DFW
SFO x3 @DAL
LAX x3 @DAL
LGA x3 @DAL
DCA x3 @DAL
LAS x1 @DAL.

I'm no expert, but that seems like a lot to combine onto two gates @ DAL, not to mention the idea of adding SJC and/or SAN to that schedule.
 
ConorB
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:05 am

For those wondering there is a 737-900 leaving VCV tomorrow around 9pm and another one flying down from SEA. I am 99% sure N493AS, this Virgin/Alaska hybrid is the one leaving. AS has been paying the parking bill for her since September. Gheesh.
 
cjpark
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:28 am

commavia wrote:
Seems plausible. So assuming for a moment that the above is true, and Alaska does vacate DAL, what becomes of those two gates? Delta gets one for its effectively-exclusive use, ending the ongoing saga with Southwest, and JetBlue gets the other to shift their BOS flights over from DFW? Or JetBlue gets both?


If I am not mistaken AA subleased those gates to Virgin America.

http://keranews.org/post/virgin-america-feels-love-it-beats-southwest-get-two-open-love-field-gates

Dallas city officials announced Monday afternoon that Virgin America will get the two open gates at Dallas Love Field. Virgin beat out Dallas-based Southwest Airlines for the gates, which American Airlines had to give up due to its merger with U.S. Airways.

Dallas city manager A.C. Gonzalez issued this statement:

After consideration of a number of factors, the City of Dallas has provided its consent to the sub-lease to Virgin America requested by American Airlines. Per the sub-lease agreement submitted, Virgin America will adhere to all terms and conditions set forth in the base lease.

Contrary to reports, this was not a competition. While initially, The City was told to expect a collaborative process, the Justice Department eventually required American Airlines to sub-lease the Love Field gates to a chosen airline. The City was presented with the sub-lease.

Rather than simply signing the sub-lease presented to us, we took some additional time to make sure our actions would be responsible and capture the vision of the Justice Department’s selected carrier. This was accomplished by incorporating Virgin’s publicly stated intentions into a compliance agreement. The major elements are:
•· Commits Virgin to the standards included in the City’s noise abatement program
•· Clarifies and expands how any unused gate space might be made accessible to other airlines
•· Protects the City from possible legal expense through an indemnification clause

I appreciate the airline carriers who showed interest in the two gates. We are excited about how the lifting of some Wright Amendment restrictions will expand opportunities and choices for Dallas residents and the traveling public. We look forward to working with Virgin America and welcome them to Dallas Love Field.





Without access to the terms of the sublease agreement there is no way to know how the gates at Love Field will be dealt with.
"Any airline that wants to serve the [region] can go to DFW today and fly anywhere they want," WN spokesman Ed Stewart
 
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RWA380
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:55 am

ConorB wrote:
For those wondering there is a 737-900 leaving VCV tomorrow around 9pm and another one flying down from SEA. I am 99% sure N493AS, this Virgin/Alaska hybrid is the one leaving. AS has been paying the parking bill for her since September. Gheesh.


I'm 99.9% sure that is her & of course it is being flown in under the cover of darkness for the formal unveiling. This is exciting to watch unfold kudos to AAG, now let's see how it all unfolds, I'm up front & center with a big bucket of popcorn for this next step.
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Passedv1
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:26 am

AS/VX deal to close WED December 14.
 
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Jamake1
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:19 am

I wonder if they will introduce the co-branded aircraft at today's announcement...
Come fly the sun.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:35 am

So when does the code-share and common FF programs begin? Dec 15th?
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
ahj2000
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:59 pm

Jamake1 wrote:
I wonder if they will introduce the co-branded aircraft at today's announcement...

I'd assume unless we here on this site ruined it :duck:
-Andrés Juánez
 
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SEAtown
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:14 pm

This picture was tweeted out over a month ago... If it's legit it would be a sweet promo livery!

https://twitter.com/AirlineGeeks/status ... wsrc%5Etfw
"When you go out to battle against your enemies and see horses and chariots and people more numerous than you, do not be afraid of them; for the LORD your God is with you." Deuteronomy 20:1
 
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enilria
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:16 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
So when does the code-share and common FF programs begin? Dec 15th?

I had heard code share was ready at launch. I expect 1/1 would be logical start. FF probably is a bit more complicated. I'd expect to see some aircraft swaps in the Mar-May timeframe loaded in the next 3 weeks.

I think we will also get an answer on DAL service very shortly.
 
Sooner787
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:28 pm

enilria wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:
So when does the code-share and common FF programs begin? Dec 15th?

I had heard code share was ready at launch. I expect 1/1 would be logical start. FF probably is a bit more complicated. I'd expect to see some aircraft swaps in the Mar-May timeframe loaded in the next 3 weeks.

I think we will also get an answer on DAL service very shortly.


We have a lot of clients hoping the combined carrier stays at DAL.

I'm also very curious when VX's Airbi start getting re-painted into AS livery?
 
gmcc
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:30 pm

Well n493as, the combined paint job, was out for a test flight last night, under the cover of darkness, according to flightaware. http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N493AS I would assume there will be another flight soon that arrives in Seattle late at night.
 
msycajun
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:33 pm

I expect we'll see VX operating as-is for at least a year or two, if not more. I am in the camp hoping to see them remain at DAL.

The most important thing will be to work out codesharing and frequent flier programs between AS and VX and working out the network in light of the AA codeshare restrictions. Hopefully we'll see some new routes as well since the fleets are growing and we haven't seen much expansion recently.
 
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TVNWZ
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:42 pm

msycajun wrote:
I expect we'll see VX operating as-is for at least a year or two, if not more..

That might be wishful thinking. VX is very small there is no upside to keeping it as is. I expect it to be absorbed fairly fast.
 
theSFOspotter
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:12 pm

N493AS is scheduled to come to SFO this week but date is still TBD
Last edited by theSFOspotter on Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:12 pm

msycajun wrote:
I expect we'll see VX operating as-is for at least a year or two, if not more.


AS is hoping to have a single operating certificate by January 2018, so one year is the plan, but no further.

Expect to see lots of celebrations around the combined system on legal day one of the acquisition!
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:12 pm

If AS moves too quickly to integrate VX, they will lose a lot of the SFO and LAX loyalists to B6 and others. They will want to retain those fliers to broaden their base - a few gates and slots aren't worth $2+ billion. Codesharing, central planning, and co-locating/staff sharing at outstations should increase VX's profitability in the short term.
 
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:18 pm

Being a frequent VX flyer and taking AS a few times, I'll be investing more money into UA and WN. They've had improvements that I like more and I didn't like the attitude from the FA's on AS, more smiles on other airlines. UA and WN also have a similar routes intra-california that appeal to me better than AS.
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MIflyer12
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:24 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
msycajun wrote:
I expect we'll see VX operating as-is for at least a year or two, if not more.


AS is hoping to have a single operating certificate by January 2018, so one year is the plan, but no further.



Both pilot groups are ALPA-represented, but AS pilots will be flying AS aircraft and VX pilots will be flying VX aircraft exclusively until there's a combined work group. That timeline can exceed the Single Operating Certificate by years, as the HP/US, AA/US, and UA/CO mergers have shown.
 
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:48 pm

In previous US airline mergers repainting planes into a common livery didn't wait for Single Operating Certificate, the "Operated By" stickers allowed paintshops to start work as soon as the merger took effect.

The merged airline has to pay the Virgin Group a fee for the use of the Virgin brand name. This is a powerful incentive to stop using it as soon as legally possible, offset by the risk of losing high value passengers if they mishandle the transition.
 
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:49 pm

theSFOspotter wrote:
Being a frequent VX flyer and taking AS a few times, I'll be investing more money into UA and WN. They've had improvements that I like more and I didn't like the attitude from the FA's on AS, more smiles on other airlines. UA and WN also have a similar routes intra-california that appeal to me better than AS.


I suppose you can find a crew on a bad day on any airline. Myself, I love flying AA and find their crews always friendly and smiling but others don't seem to usually agree with me. AS is known for excellent customer service, as is VX. I think the combined airline will do just fine, especially after the VX crews are on the AS pay scale!
 
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
msycajun wrote:
I expect we'll see VX operating as-is for at least a year or two, if not more.


AS is hoping to have a single operating certificate by January 2018, so one year is the plan, but no further.



Both pilot groups are ALPA-represented, but AS pilots will be flying AS aircraft and VX pilots will be flying VX aircraft exclusively until there's a combined work group. That timeline can exceed the Single Operating Certificate by years, as the HP/US, AA/US, and UA/CO mergers have shown.


There's substantial incentive on both sides to combine into a single workgroup, so while achieving that is no small task, it's something that's a top priority for AAG Leadership.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:39 pm

WN did a slow but steady merger, to the annoyance of some online here. I expect Alaska to do the same - as fast as possible, but no faster, no big disasters.
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:57 pm

Andy33 wrote:
In previous US airline mergers repainting planes into a common livery didn't wait for Single Operating Certificate, the "Operated By" stickers allowed paintshops to start work as soon as the merger took effect.

The merged airline has to pay the Virgin Group a fee for the use of the Virgin brand name. This is a powerful incentive to stop using it as soon as legally possible, offset by the risk of losing high value passengers if they mishandle the transition.



Well, VX has like 60 something jets in their fleet, so it won't take very long to repaint
 
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antoniemey
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:53 pm

Sooner787 wrote:

Well, VX has like 60 something jets in their fleet, so it won't take very long to repaint


Physical time in the paintshop won't be as long as larger carriers, but actual time from first plane to last will still be a year or two. There's only so much slack in the fleet, and they're not going to cancel a line of flying just to paint an aircraft.
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:32 pm

antoniemey wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:

There's only so much slack in the fleet, and they're not going to cancel a line of flying just to paint an aircraft.


You don't think there's opportunity to draw down one or two frequencies in markets where AS and VX are currently competitors? While eliminating overcapacity on some AS/VX routes wasn't the aim of this acquisition, it's going to be a fringe benefit that frees up some airframes to be redeployed elsewhere, but also provide downtime to be repainted and retrofit the cabins in whatever configuration AS decides to go with.
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:45 pm

Won't they need to add some routes/frequency to AA hubs as a result of losing the ability to codeshare on hub-hub routes? I think that will need to be a priority along with some strategic adds more than painting planes.
 
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Re: AS/VX Deal to close 12/14

Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:47 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
You don't think there's opportunity to draw down one or two frequencies in markets where AS and VX are currently competitors?


That could potentially speed the process a little bit.
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georgiabill
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:02 am

I could see AS/VX drop 1 frequency on DAL SFO/LAX routes and add 2x DAL-SEA. Not sure they could add additional flights from their gates, but if possible perhaps 1x daily DAL-SAN and 1x daily DAL-PDX
 
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:03 am

AS is operating a charter Wed morning SEA-SFO with official merger close ceremony at SFO. I cannot confirm it's 493 operating aircraft but that's what is anticipated. If not, 493 may still very well pull into SFO Wed for the news conference.
 
ConorBall
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:27 am

n7371f wrote:
AS is operating a charter Wed morning SEA-SFO with official merger close ceremony at SFO. I cannot confirm it's 493 operating aircraft but that's what is anticipated. If not, 493 may still very well pull into SFO Wed for the news conference.



493 is scheduled to leave VCV for SEA under the cover of darkness tonight. This could well end up being on of my favorite livery's out there!
 
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:56 am

ConorBall wrote:
n7371f wrote:
AS is operating a charter Wed morning SEA-SFO with official merger close ceremony at SFO. I cannot confirm it's 493 operating aircraft but that's what is anticipated. If not, 493 may still very well pull into SFO Wed for the news conference.



493 is scheduled to leave VCV for SEA under the cover of darkness tonight. This could well end up being on of my favorite livery's out there!


Well it's almost here, nice to see that Seattle isn't in for the snow Portland is tomorrow. I'm sure the next couple of days are going to be very exciting around the various AS & VX stations. I think crews & ground staff are meeting each other online & in person. It's going to be a good for many involved.
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n7371f
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Re: DOJ Approves AS/VX merger

Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:49 am

493 is now in the air to SEA. It will be parked in the hangar & then shown to employees in morning before heading to SFO.

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