Page 1 of 1

US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:11 am
by MaxTrimm
Upon seeing multiple threads regarding the announcements of new routes between the U.S. and secondary China, I thought it would be appropriate to put all of this into one thread that could be used to discuss and analyze the constantly growing market between America and smaller Chinese markets.
Here is the destinations / routes I have so far:
Seattle (SEA)
Xiamen Airlines - Shenzhen (SZX) - B788
Xiamen Airlines - Xiamen (XMN) * Triangle routing SEA-SZX-XMN-SZX-SEA - B788

San Francisco (SFO)
China Eastern Airlines - Kunming (KMG) - A332?
China Eastern Airlines - Qingdao (TAO) - A332
China Southern Airlines - Wuhan (WUH) - 788
United Airlines - Chengdu (CTU) - B789
United Airlines - Hangzhou (HGH) - B789
United Airlines - Xi'an (XIY) - B788

Los Angeles (LAX)
China Eastern Airlines - Chengdu (CTU) - A332
China Eastern Airlines - Nanjing (NKG) - A332
Hainan Airlines - Changsha (CSX) - B788
Sichuan Airlines - Chengdu (CTU) - A332
Sichuan Airlines - Hangzhou (HGH) - A332
Sichuan Airlines - Jinan (TNA) - A332

New York (JFK)
Xiamen Airlines - Fuzhou (FOC) - 788

Note that I understand that these technically aren't "secondary" cities because Xi'an, Chengdu, Hangzhou, etc. are all cities that are slightly smaller or even bigger than major American cities like Dallas, Houston, or Miami, but are new markets that would've otherwise never come to fruition without newer, more economical planes like the 787. I figured it would be appropriate to dedicate a thread that is constantly open to discussion about this intriguing new market. Any criticism or updating of the list is encouraged.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:22 am
by hayzel777
Didn't Hainan just apply for CTU-LAX? I believe China Eastern's service is CTU-NKG-LAX, not a nonstop.

Also, Kunming-SFO is another one of these one stop routes, not nonstop.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:43 am
by c933103
SEA-SZX-XMN-SZX-SEA does not look like triangular route... it's essentially one-stop at SZX in both direction

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:46 am
by keitherson
Surprised you restricted this thread to USA, given that YVR is the top city for flights to secondary China, being the most Chinese city outside of China.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:47 am
by c933103
For Canada,
XMN-YVR
SHE-YVR
and that's it?

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:59 am
by tcaeyx
Posted this in another thread, but here is a list of routes ex-LAX that are either in service or planned:

In service:
    China Eastern
      Chengdu via Nanjing
    Hainan
      Changsha
    Sichuan
      Chengdu via Jinan
      Chengdu via Hangzhou

Approved by DOT
    Xiamenair
      Xiamen

Application submitted to DOT
    Hainan
      Chengdu (nonstop)

Announced
    Lucky Air
      Kunming
    Air China
      Shenzhen

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 3:25 am
by c933103
ah, for Canada, there are also:
CGO-YVR
KMG-NKG-YVR
and HGH-TAO-YVR will start later this month
Applying:
CKG-TSN-YVR

and Hainan is applying for TSN-JFK?

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 4:48 am
by BNAOWB
Would the number of weekly nonstop North America - secondary China flights eclipse the number of weekly nonstop Western Europe - secondary China flights?

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:02 am
by BestWestern
Watch these routes wither if President Trump continues to poke China.

China controls the airlines and tour agencies.

Just like BA to CTU, I'd wager that most of these are loss making, and heavily subsidised.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:56 am
by Aither
BestWestern wrote:
Just like BA to CTU, I'd wager that most of these are loss making, and heavily subsidised.


They are but there are benefits for the local governments and the US airlines will not complain since this is not a traffic they are targeting. For the Chinese airlines, it's a strategy to become quickly strong on some markets.
These routes are creating havoc on the transpacific. Yields are declining by over 15% in one year. Everybody is losing money so maybe the Chinese authorities will do something.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:38 am
by BestWestern
If the China outbound tourism tap is turned off, these routes will stop. With the China tour yield on some very long sectors, no way they are profitable.

The Chinese government is very good at managing tourism flows - many countries find this out at their peril. This year, Taiwan Korea and Thailand are seeing tourism fall in the last quarter over Chinese government actions.

The UA routes are better because they have all US feed and have a perceived better product than the Chinese carriers.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:14 am
by c933103
BestWestern wrote:
If the China outbound tourism tap is turned off, these routes will stop. With the China tour yield on some very long sectors, no way they are profitable.

The Chinese government is very good at managing tourism flows - many countries find this out at their peril. This year, Taiwan Korea and Thailand are seeing tourism fall in the last quarter over Chinese government actions.

The UA routes are better because they have all US feed and have a perceived better product than the Chinese carriers.

What happened to Thailand?

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:29 am
MaxTrimm wrote:
Note that I understand that these technically aren't "secondary" cities because Xi'an, Chengdu, Hangzhou, etc. are all cities that are slightly smaller or even bigger than major American cities like Dallas, Houston, or Miami, but are new markets that would've otherwise never come to fruition without newer, more economical planes like the 787. I figured it would be appropriate to dedicate a thread that is constantly open to discussion about this intriguing new market. Any criticism or updating of the list is encouraged.


Do note that in pure population terms, the metro areas of the likes of Xian, Chengdu, Hangzhou, etc, are huge, at 13.5 million, 10.5m, and 21.5m respectively. By comparison, the Dallas Ft Worth metroplex CSA is <7m, the metro of Houston is 6.5m, and Miami is 5.5m.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:45 am
by BestWestern
Chinese government have outlawed 'zero price' tours. Traffic significantly down in Thailand over last two months.

http://bangkok.coconuts.co/2016/12/01/t ... e-tourists

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:40 pm
by MaxTrimm
c933103 wrote:
ah, for Canada, there are also:
CGO-YVR
KMG-NKG-YVR
and HGH-TAO-YVR will start later this month
Applying:
CKG-TSN-YVR

and Hainan is applying for TSN-JFK?

YVR has a whole slew of routes.
Beijing Capital Airlines - Hangzhou (HGH) - A332
Beijing Capital Airlines - Qingdao (TAO) - A332
China Eastern Airlines - Kunming (KMG) - A332
China Eastern Airlines - Nanjing (NKG) - A332
Sichuan Airlines - Shenyang (SHE) - A332
Sichuan Airlines - Chengdu (CTU) - A332
Sichuan Airlines - Zhengzhou (CGO) - A332
Xiamen Airlines - Xiamen (XMN) - B788

I think adding Canada to the thread would be just fine.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:25 pm
by travelin man
I'm surprised Chongqing isn't being served with direct flights to the USA.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:36 pm
by winginit
travelin man wrote:
I'm surprised Chongqing isn't being served with direct flights to the USA.


Given the trend, I'd bet it's only a matter of time before one of the following takes place:

- Air China, who already serve several international destinations from Chongqing, begin non-daily US service
- Chongqing Airlines, backed by CZ, acquire widebodies and start serving a US gateway non-daily

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 8:34 pm
by c933103
Chongqing currently have direct service to the US but not non-stop. CA is now operating a daily direct flight from Chongqing to SFO via PEK with 747.
MU used to operate direct flight from Chongqing to LAX with a stop at PVG with A346 but the service seems to be suspended by now.
And it's said that Hainan have applied (to CAAC) for starting non-stop flight from Chengdu (from 2017 Mar) and Chongqing (from 2017 Jun) to New York with 787
And both Hainan and CA have applied to launch Chongqing-LAX service with 787.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:41 pm
by MaxTrimm
travelin man wrote:
I'm surprised Chongqing isn't being served with direct flights to the USA.

Same with Tianjin. Massive city, probably only a matter of time until maybe UA jumps on it. Possibly to SFO.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:48 pm
by KiloRomeoDelta
These are all the US west coast to China non-stop connections as of Dec 2016. Pretty impressive coverage.

Image

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:08 am
by MaxTrimm
KiloRomeoDelta wrote:
These are all the US west coast to China non-stop connections as of Dec 2016. Pretty impressive coverage.

Image

Thanks for the graphic! It is quite impressive but it seems reletively underserved considering in all those cities with only 1 nonstop to the US that are massive. Is Urumqi realistic? I could see maybe a CA 77W but that's a really long flight.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:53 am
by KiloRomeoDelta
MaxTrimm wrote:
KiloRomeoDelta wrote:
Thanks for the graphic! It is quite impressive but it seems reletively underserved considering in all those cities with only 1 nonstop to the US that are massive. Is Urumqi realistic? I could see maybe a CA 77W but that's a really long flight.


Remember the Chinese government has some weird rule that only one Chinese airline can fly a specific route, so if Air China is flying PEK-SFO, China Eastern can fly PVG-SFO but cannot fly PEK-SFO. This severely limits how many flights you can get between China and US. This is also why the Chinese airlines are scrambling to grab all sorts of secondary routes before someone else grabs it, hence the relatively large number of secondary cities to US routes.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:12 am
by MaxTrimm
KiloRomeoDelta wrote:
MaxTrimm wrote:
KiloRomeoDelta wrote:
Thanks for the graphic! It is quite impressive but it seems reletively underserved considering in all those cities with only 1 nonstop to the US that are massive. Is Urumqi realistic? I could see maybe a CA 77W but that's a really long flight.


Remember the Chinese government has some weird rule that only one Chinese airline can fly a specific route, so if Air China is flying PEK-SFO, China Eastern can fly PVG-SFO but cannot fly PEK-SFO. This severely limits how many flights you can get between China and US. This is also why the Chinese airlines are scrambling to grab all sorts of secondary routes before someone else grabs it, hence the relatively large number of secondary cities to US routes.

Very interesting. I wasn't aware of that. Well if that's the case, then we will either start seeing secondary China pop up in smaller markets or this exponential increase in routes will slow down soon. It's a real shame, so much money waiting to be made!

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:41 am
by LAX772LR
[email protected] wrote:
Do note that in pure population terms, the metro areas of the likes of Xian, Chengdu, Hangzhou, etc, are huge, at 13.5 million, 10.5m, and 21.5m respectively.

Which doesn't amount to squat, in terms of capability of realistically sustaining intercon airline service.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 6:27 am
by BestWestern
With the exception of KL, very few commercially driven carriers have made long haul into Chinese secondary cities work. I'd even question how many of the KL a secondary are profitable. Hangzhou Amsterdam is still only twice weekly this winter.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 6:55 am
by Aither
BestWestern wrote:
The Chinese government is very good at managing tourism flows - many countries find this out at their peril. This year, Taiwan Korea and Thailand are seeing tourism fall in the last quarter over Chinese government actions.
.


it's part of becoming a more global power. Guess why they are the only country to promote OUTbound tourism...
Also the behavior of Chinese travelers will be increasingly monitored by the authorities. Those who don't behave well will be blacklisted on international flights.
It's all part of a global influence strategy.

They also need to develop the secondary cities and with this rule of one Chinese carrier per international route no wonder they are all scrambling around, including carriers that never operated wide body flights. I even heard some subsidies covering 70% of the long haul trip costs. With this you can launch pretty much every route you want.

But this does not really help the Chinese airlines to become stronger and more efficient. It also makes the demand used to pay very low fares. Because the international growth is largely yield driven it's actually a lot of profitable domestic tourists moving to less profitable/subsidized international flights. So If you look at the big picture, it's very bad for everybody and it's impacting all the routes, even the ones from Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo... it's an absolute mess.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:52 pm
by c933103
Beijing Capital Airlines has expanded its long-haul network with a new route to Canada. On 30 December the Chinese carrier began three times weekly flights from Hangzhou (HGH) to Vancouver (YVR) via Qingdao (TAO). The Qingdao-Vancouver sector is 8,637 kilometres long making it the airline’s second longest after the 9,151-kilometre route between Chengdu and Madrid. The airline’s only other long-haul route is the 8,591-kilometre route between Qingdao and Melbourne. One of Beijing Capital Airlines’ four A330-200s will be used to operate the new route. Qingdao becomes the eighth Chinese city that can be reached non-stop from Vancouver according to OAG data for early January. The other seven airports are Shanghai Pudong (18 weekly flights), Beijing (14), Guangzhou (seven), Nanjing (three), Xiamen (three), Zhengzhou (two) and Shenyang (one).

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:37 pm
by c933103
I was reading files in https://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ata/c/ch/114749.htm ....
It said,
Notwithstanding any other provisions of the Agreement, each Party may choose 5 points in China Zone 3 that its airlines may serve without limitations on the number of designations and without frequency limitations on : 1) services carrying fifth-freedom traffic between such points and intermediate or beyond points in third countries on the specified routes, and 2) combination services carrying fifth-freedom traffic between such points and Japan. Each Party shall notify the other Party of the five points it has selected, with not less than 30 days' written notice . The points selected may, at the discretion of each Party, be changed with not less than 30 days' written notice to the other Party . However, service to a point in China Zone 3 via a point in China Zone 1 or Zone 2 shall be subject to the designation, frequency and Japan fifth-freedom traffic rights limitations set forth in Annex V of this Agreement .

So, China and US each side can only serve up to 5 points in Zone 3?
From the list compiled above, among destinations served by Chinese airlines
SZX TAO TNA NKG HGH FOC are Zone 2
KMG WUH CTU CKG CSX are Zone 3, so the destination limit for Chinese airlines is already filled and they can't add any more secondary inland cities destinations?
And for US airlines,
HGH: zone 2
XIY CTU: zone 3
So United or someone else can still serve 3 more Zone 3 destinations?

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:56 am
by QANTAS747-438
travelin man wrote:
I'm surprised Chongqing isn't being served with direct flights to the USA.


Hainan flies it nonstop, LAX-CKG on a 788.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:54 pm
by c933103
How's the SEA-SZX flight doing?
Back when the route launch it seems like the route didn't really attracted many passengers, even after promotional fare of 1000CNY return (tax excluded) and even lower for group travellers those initial flights were still only 60-80% filled.
Some comments on Chinese forum said the less than daily frequency is unattractive to business travelers, and individual Shenzhen travellers would usually search HKG when they want to fly Intercon and thus they might not even notice the existence of this flight, and even grouo travellers doesn't seems to be using this flight either. Back in March to May the flight were also slashed to 2/weekly (now back to 3) for seasonal increase in frequency for the Fuzhou-NYC route.
But on.the flip sode the current price of this flight seems to be rather solid.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:46 am
by bfitzflyer
All of these routes put together with other China/Asia routes has definitely made it a consumer's dream. Routinely see flights from SFO to most of China/SE Asia around 600 dollars or even less.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:59 am
by SFOA380
Just returned from FUK via PVG - 2 r/t tickets cost a whopping $1500 on MU... JL and NH SFO-FUK via TYO were around $2700 EACH r/t. Amazing... MU was an odd experience for an American. We were virtually alone. It was totally fine as I'm always up for an adventure. Brand new 77W quite comfortable. Only gripe was the food which was literally inedible. These carriers are clearly geared to Chinese POS...

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:10 am
by KiloRomeoDelta
SFOA380 wrote:
MU was an odd experience for an American. We were virtually alone. It was totally fine as I'm always up for an adventure. Brand new 77W quite comfortable. Only gripe was the food which was literally inedible..


Having flown PVG-SFO on China Eastern 77W late last year, my experience has been exactly the same too-
* Brand new 77W with nice IFE screens but poor selection of things to watch
* Indifferent cabin crew- would do everything defined by the book with a fake smile but that's about it, you could replace them with robots and nobody would notice a difference
* Completely inedibly terrible food, it would almost count as human rights abuse under Geneva Convention

So looks like MU is at least consistent in what they deliver on flights over time.

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:47 am
by c933103
Seems like USDOT have just published traffic data stats for 2017 March? I don't know how to access those data, but on Chinese forum at http://bbs.feeyo.com/posts/594/topic-0011-5942876.html someone have made a chart about the load factor of all US-Secondary China flight. The best flight is FOC-JFK but the load factor is still only 72.8%. CTU-SFO, WUH-SFO, SZX-SEA are at lower 60%, LAX-CSX/CTU/TNA/HGH are all in 50% range, HGH-SFO and CKG-LAX only have slightly more than 40%, and then NKG-LAX is about 35%, the worst flight TAO-SFO only have 25% load factor in March.

While March is indeed one of the worst month in the year, but still this load factor..

Re: US-Secondary China Thread

Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:39 am
by c933103
April load factor of CKG/CTU-LAX seems to be still only around 50 % ish