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jupiter2 wrote:

thegeek wrote:

Regarding the freight, premium freight will still use belly cargo out of syd. It is the dedicated freighters which will move. They will then be far closer to warehouses and distribution centres.

UPS and Fedex both have large facilities near the airport now, they maybe reluctant to move their flights, but that is something for further down the road. The other freight flights I could see moving, with the exception of the QF 763 freighter to N.Z. That carries a lot of express freight and that industry is heavily consolidated around the Mascot/Botany areas.

I feel sure that in time such moves will ultimately happen regardless of presently installed facilities. Facilities age and wear out or need expansion. The land value near SYD will ultimately push a move to facilities near Badgery's Creek except for belly cargo which is obviously tied to where the passengers are. Can't imagine that there is that much ultra-urgent freight going from the plane straight to the CBD, for example, and any that does exist is likely to be accommodated by belly cargo.

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jupiter2 wrote:

thegeek wrote:

Regarding the freight, premium freight will still use belly cargo out of syd. It is the dedicated freighters which will move. They will then be far closer to warehouses and distribution centres.

UPS and Fedex both have large facilities near the airport now, they maybe reluctant to move their flights, but that is something for further down the road. The other freight flights I could see moving, with the exception of the QF 763 freighter to N.Z. That carries a lot of express freight and that industry is heavily consolidated around the Mascot/Botany areas.

I feel sure that in time such moves will ultimately happen regardless of presently installed facilities. Facilities age and wear out or need expansion. The land value near SYD will ultimately push a move to facilities near Badgery's Creek except for belly cargo which is obviously tied to where the passengers are. Can't imagine that there is that much ultra-urgent freight going from the plane straight to the CBD, for example, and any that does exist is likely to be accommodated by belly cargo.

aerokiwi wrote:

High speed rail between Melbourne and Sydney just isn't going to happen. The truly enormous costs and complexity involved, combined with a pretty moribund political system (risk averse Feds versus risk averse States versus god-only-knows what Councils), alongside a pretty excellent air service, makes the chances practically zilch. Throw in trying to build a highspeed line through the massively expensive outer and inner suburbs to each city's massively expensive centre and, well, it is zilch.

aerokiwi wrote:

So the estimation that Badgerys will be a Gold Coast-esque facility is about right, I reckon. And there's nothing wrong with that. What would be interesting is if the likes of Jestart and Tiger shift all of their ops there. Would free up a tremendous amount of slots and gate space at SYD.

In a nutshell.

mariner

Something which I don't think has been mentioned yet is around wind direction. Sydney generally experiences two strong wind directions - southerly and westerly. The westerly winds are particularly prevalent (and strong) in the August-October period. The runway alignment for Badgerys Creek (southwest-northeast - 05/23) will allow the runway to be used for the vast majority of wind conditions. Kingsford Smith on the other hand has two runways aligned north-south (16/34) and one east-west (07/25). This configuration means when the strong westerlies come through, the crosswind component makes 16/34 unusable for many aircraft, reduces operations down to one runway, and causes delays.

Personally, as has been suggested by a few other posters, I would like to see Badgerys Creek be the major airport for Sydney, with Kingsford Smith serving an LGA style role with some domestic flights and business aviation. 16L/34R could be removed from service (and 16R/34L could be shortened significantly to a similar length as 07/25). Looking at the long term development plan for Badgerys Creek, I can't see Kingsford Smith remaining as the primary airport.

One other big impact the development of Badgerys Creek will have is on flight training. The site is smack bang in the middle of the training area used by Bankstown and Camden (I used to practice engine failures with students all the time in the vicinity of the site). Camden will be able to still do training to the south, but it will be interesting to see what will become of flying training at Bankstown.

V/F

VirginFlyer wrote:

Something which I don't think has been mentioned yet is around wind direction. Sydney generally experiences two strong wind directions - southerly and westerly. The westerly winds are particularly prevalent (and strong) in the August-October period. The runway alignment for Badgerys Creek (southwest-northeast - 05/23) will allow the runway to be used for the vast majority of wind conditions. Kingsford Smith on the other hand has two runways aligned north-south (16/34) and one east-west (07/25). This configuration means when the strong westerlies come through, the crosswind component makes 16/34 unusable for many aircraft, reduces operations down to one runway, and causes delays.

Personally, as has been suggested by a few other posters, I would like to see Badgerys Creek be the major airport for Sydney, with Kingsford Smith serving an LGA style role with some domestic flights and business aviation. 16L/34R could be removed from service (and 16R/34L could be shortened significantly to a similar length as 07/25). Looking at the long term development plan for Badgerys Creek, I can't see Kingsford Smith remaining as the primary airport.

One other big impact the development of Badgerys Creek will have is on flight training. The site is smack bang in the middle of the training area used by Bankstown and Camden (I used to practice engine failures with students all the time in the vicinity of the site). Camden will be able to still do training to the south, but it will be interesting to see what will become of flying training at Bankstown.

V/F

Actually southerlies at SYD aren't really that common, if anything the prevailing winds would be north westerlies. The strong southerly winds are more associated with storms and strong cool changes and then there are the spring westerlies blowing gales. But, the predominant ops are on the 34's with the norwesters and in summer the north easterly sea breezes.

The directions chosen for Badgerys Creek are interesting as being fairly local, I've found the winds won't be much different to SYD. There will be a fair bit of cross wind ops, but in general the north westerlies don't usually get to strong, so ops shouldn't be affected too much. I would guess 23 in winter and 05 in summer would be the expected ops.

SYD airport has today been given a Notice of Intention (NOI) and has 4 months to decide on whether it wants to build and operate Badgerys Creek

http://australianaviation.com.au/2016/1 ... -decision/

qf789 wrote:

SYD airport has today been given a Notice of Intention (NOI) and has 4 months to decide on whether it wants to build and operate Badgerys Creek

http://australianaviation.com.au/2016/1 ... -decision/

This to me is the interesting part (my italics).

However, Minister Fletcher’s statement noted: “All of the costs of building and operating the airport would be met by Sydney Airport Group in return for all of the economic benefits of ownership of the airport over 99 years.”
On the level of government funding committed to the project under the NOI Sydney Airport said: “Given the significant challenges the project will face, Sydney Airport has consistently stated that the project would require material support from the Commonwealth to make it commercially viable.”

This is going to be a very expensive project, and it looks like the Commonwealth is not going to provide much financial assistance, nor is Sydney Airport indicating they are willing to foot the bill.
Knowing this will be very costly (with probable significant cost overruns, given Australian and overseas experience with large projects) and Sydney Airport's very high leverage (to maximise shareholder returns), surely it is very likely they will not go ahead with the right of first refusal to build?

Then what is the likelihood they will take the Commonwealth to court (over the terms of the NOI) to try and either extract a workable deal, or stymie the development of the airport?