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Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:29 pm

As the title asks, did any airline purchase the A380 and would have been better served with the 748?

If so, which airline(s)? Why?
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:33 pm

This is pretty hard to quantify. Obviously there are airlines I wish bought the 748 over the A388 (Imagine that plane in the SN or QF livery!) but I'm sure a ton of consideration went into the purchase of the A380 over the 747-8.
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Flighty
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:39 pm

I would guess yes. The cost of the 748 per trip (including ownership cost) is lower than A380, by all sources. Some A380 operators have struggled to fill them past 80%. So the 748 would have been more profitable for them. Asiana, Thai, maybe others. Just making a generalization that is likely to hold some water.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:53 pm

Flighty wrote:
I would guess yes. The cost of the 748 per trip (including ownership cost) is lower than A380, by all sources. Some A380 operators have struggled to fill them past 80%. So the 748 would have been more profitable for them. Asiana, Thai, maybe others. Just making a generalization that is likely to hold some water.


I am certain that this is the case; especially when you add in the additional cargo capabilities of the 748. Of course, hindsight is always much clearer than foresight...

The real question here is the number of aircraft in the 10-20 range, or the 100+ range. Methinks, admittedly without a lot of analysis and based on a semi-educated guess, that it would likely be in the 30-50 aircraft range. Not sure how much more that would have hurt the A380; but, it sure would have helped the 748.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:56 pm

Flighty wrote:
I would guess yes. The cost of the 748 per trip (including ownership cost) is lower than A380, by all sources. Some A380 operators have struggled to fill them past 80%. So the 748 would have been more profitable for them. Asiana, Thai, maybe others. Just making a generalization that is likely to hold some water.


Malaysia airlines probably would be better off with 748 then the A380 but egos are what they are and in Kuala Lumpor they buy what Singapore Airlines buys. Interesting if you think about which Asia Pacific Airlines really need the A380 and Qantas, Singapore and Korean are the only ones. Surprising to me that Cathay Pacific never got them for LHR, LAX and JFK. Neither Japanese airline got them until ANA got three recently, we will have to see how that experiment goes.
 
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keesje
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:28 pm

Maybe, space on board the 748 is about 35%-40% less. So if a A380 seats 500, the equivalent 748 seats about 325, if e.g the bar area is scaled down too. Ref. former BA, JAL 744 seatmaps. That's a different category cost per seat for a different requirement. The 'typical' CASM comparisons by the OE's should be taken with a grain of salt.

If you have 500 seats available and can only sell 300 you have problem. If there is 400 passengers at the gate and you 325 seats on board, that's a problem too.
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Strato2
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:33 pm

No and Lufthansa would have been better of buying more A380's and no 748i's at all. Now they have almost half of the entire microscopic worldwide 747-8i fleet with little to no resale value at all so they are forced to fly those planes to the ground just like the A340-600's.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:49 pm

Strato2 wrote:
No and Lufthansa would have been better of buying more A380's and no 748i's at all. Now they have almost half of the entire microscopic worldwide 747-8i fleet with little to no resale value at all so they are forced to fly those planes to the ground just like the A340-600's.


Or just buying 748i, but not both.

Re-sale isn't of interest at present to LH. Boeing seem to be following Airbus, so in respect to re-sale, I'm sure they will make LH an offer they can't refuse to exit the buyback.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 11:05 pm

questions wrote:
As the title asks, did any airline purchase the A380 and would have been better served with the 748?


I don't think so.


Strato2 wrote:
No and Lufthansa would have been better of buying more A380's and no 748i's at all. Now they have almost half of the entire microscopic worldwide 747-8i fleet with little to no resale value at all so they are forced to fly those planes to the ground just like the A340-600's.


LH has long wanted a larger 747-8 to slot in-between the A340-600 and A380-800 as the 747-400 fleet was retired. They were the ones who pushed Boeing into making the plane by agreeing to order 20 of them at launch.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Mon Dec 12, 2016 11:46 pm

Interesting last comment, LH parked several A346's at one point I'm not sure what their status is now, they didn't take 1 748 due to weight but they seem to like them generally, and they did cancel 3 A380's! They typically fly their aircraft for all of their useful lives.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:42 am

LH / KE seem to have a good thing going slotting the 748 between the A346/77W and A388. Both airlines are "premium" airlines with true F, J, Y(Y+) service, so their planes are not cramped or maxed to capacity. Everything lines up for LH to offer the premium heavy configs, making it unique to most other carriers.

Would be great if BA ran a high J 748 like LH does.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:38 am

BWIAirport wrote:
(Imagine that plane in the SN or QF livery!) .


Brussels Airlines or did you have another airline in mind?
 
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flee
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:50 am

B748 was late to the market - it was possible to order the A380 way before the B748 was available. So airlines did not have much of a choice when they were doing their investment appraisals. It was either the A380 or the B744.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:52 am

airzona11 wrote:
Would be great if BA ran a high J 748 like LH does.

Wouldn't the B779X be the smarter choice now?
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:17 am

Both 747-8 and A380s are typically targeting the same big mega routes. On these markets the question is not if you're aircraft is too big or too small but how good your revenue management and marketing team are.
Someone would take a big risk coming to me saying he/she can't fill the A380 on ICN-LHR or BKK-FRA but could make the 747-8 work. With that kind of thinking we would end up operating Embraer. Maybe we should remind people, including in this forum, that Airlines have fixed costs and economies of scale are important.
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:31 am

The A380 is mainly for the biggest and most slot restricted airports like LHR, LAX and are modified to take it and where load factors of 90% + year round. The 748i is a much better fit literally in their size as no need for special infrastructure in comparison to the A380 for major airports like EWR that can't handle the A380 as well as likely to have higher load factors year round.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:12 am

910A wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
(Imagine that plane in the SN or QF livery!) .


Brussels Airlines or did you have another airline in mind?

I completely meant SQ, my bad
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:17 am

Any airline that would have done better with a 747-8 than an A380 probably would have done better yet with a 777-300ER.

It was the 77W that really killed both VLAs. Their per-seat advantage was just not enough to make up for the increased capital and trip costs, unless you are Emirates or Lufthansa. That's especially true given how much easier a 77W is to finance and resell.

Now we see the A350-900 and 787-9 doing the same thing to the 777-class aircraft. They are the widebodies of the future for the time being.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:24 am

seabosdca wrote:
Any airline that would have done better with a 747-8 than an A380 probably would have done better yet with a 777-300ER.


My thoughts exactly.
As much as I don't like it.
I think that the "popularity" of the A380 was in some cases just as silly as the popularity of the earliest 747s. Many carriers on the "me too" bandwagon soon found that large airplanes are just as hard to fill when they're made by Airbus as they are when they're made by Boeing.

I do think that the 748i would have presented a lower risk choice to several A380 operators. But that's my armchair opinion.

Truly remarkable A330neo, 777X, A350, and 787 performance will annihilate the beloved modern quads. Never mind the difference in capacity... capacity discipline is the theme of the '10s, anyhow. Unless you're Emirates. And EK's insanity will eventually come back to haunt them.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:41 am

China Southern comes to mind regarding the 380.
Air China added the 747-8i and they seem to work for them.
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:13 am

seabosdca wrote:
Any airline that would have done better with a 747-8 than an A380 probably would have done better yet with a 777-300ER.


Exactly.

One can imagine a route that is right-sized by a 747-8 and not an A380. But a 777-300ER can fly just as far, and use less fuel per seat. Seriously, Boeing made a mistake when they decided to do the 747-8.

Image
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:29 am

kitplane01 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
Any airline that would have done better with a 747-8 than an A380 probably would have done better yet with a 777-300ER.


Exactly.

One can imagine a route that is right-sized by a 747-8 and not an A380. But a 777-300ER can fly just as far, and use less fuel per seat. Seriously, Boeing made a mistake when they decided to do the 747-8.

Image



The slide you are using to base your idea on may not be correct. We can argue all we want about airlines and their configuration, but the slide doesn't use the same density for capacity so the denser aircraft in that slide (77W/779) will show an advantage especially when it has a lot more seats in its "standard" configuration than the competition. Also if you are looking at an aircraft that seats more than 180 passengers per flight you are looking at different markets, especially if the densities of premium vs Y is different as well.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:59 am

enzo011 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
Any airline that would have done better with a 747-8 than an A380 probably would have done better yet with a 777-300ER.


Exactly.

One can imagine a route that is right-sized by a 747-8 and not an A380. But a 777-300ER can fly just as far, and use less fuel per seat. Seriously, Boeing made a mistake when they decided to do the 747-8.

Image



The slide you are using to base your idea on may not be correct. We can argue all we want about airlines and their configuration, but the slide doesn't use the same density for capacity so the denser aircraft in that slide (77W/779) will show an advantage especially when it has a lot more seats in its "standard" configuration than the competition. Also if you are looking at an aircraft that seats more than 180 passengers per flight you are looking at different markets, especially if the densities of premium vs Y is different as well.


Leeham claims that they standardised the seating which is reasonable when one realises that Boeing advertised 467 in the 748 and Leeham only 405.

I think the A380 was at some point 555 in a 3-class config or according to the website now 544 in a 4-class config.

Adjusting the TK 77W seat plan when it still had Y+, I get 341 (8/42/291) at 85" in F, 61" in J and 32" 9-abreast in Y. That is 14.7% premium seats and with a few wasted inches here and there. So 344 seats in a standardised 3-class config as per Leeham is not unreasonable.

Moving to the 748, if we use the LH as a baseline, I get in excess of 400 seats as well. If I use Boeing's seat plan from the ACAPS, assume they were still using the archaic breakdown of 61" in F and 39" in J and adjust it for 81" in F, 61" in J and keep the Y pitch the same as they have it, I get 422 (8/58/356). That is 15.6% premium seats.

The A380 will likely have 555 seats, if not more.

So, all are in the ballpark of Leehams assumptions and calculations. The A380 seat count should be increased for the analysis that they conducted.

Also, before someone argues comfort levels, the A380 will be the most comfortable without question just due to its gargantuan size which will give the air of spaciousness even though the seats will be roughly equal.

Increasing the seat count on the A380 in Leeham's analysis should make its fuel burn per seat equal to that of the 77W, if not less. The problem with the A380 is not its efficiency (which is right up there with the best aircraft available right now) but its capacity.

The 748 makes sense for airlines who can outfit it with more premium seats (that they know they can consistently fill at non-discounted fares) and increase their revenue per flight. There are not many airlines out there who can do that. Only Lufthansa seems to be able to do that consistently and on a scale that makes a fleet 748 worthwhile. BA should be able to do the same (they have a number of high J 744s and in general have a high proportion of premium seats) but they seem to want to keep capacity tight.
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:22 am

MoKa777 wrote:
Leeham claims that they standardised the seating which is reasonable when one realises that Boeing advertised 467 in the 748 and Leeham only 405.

I think the A380 was at some point 555 in a 3-class config or according to the website now 544 in a 4-class config.

Adjusting the TK 77W seat plan when it still had Y+, I get 341 (8/42/291) at 85" in F, 61" in J and 32" 9-abreast in Y. That is 14.7% premium seats and with a few wasted inches here and there. So 344 seats in a standardised 3-class config as per Leeham is not unreasonable.

Moving to the 748, if we use the LH as a baseline, I get in excess of 400 seats as well. If I use Boeing's seat plan from the ACAPS, assume they were still using the archaic breakdown of 61" in F and 39" in J and adjust it for 81" in F, 61" in J and keep the Y pitch the same as they have it, I get 422 (8/58/356). That is 15.6% premium seats.

The A380 will likely have 555 seats, if not more.

So, all are in the ballpark of Leehams assumptions and calculations. The A380 seat count should be increased for the analysis that they conducted.

Also, before someone argues comfort levels, the A380 will be the most comfortable without question just due to its gargantuan size which will give the air of spaciousness even though the seats will be roughly equal.



I had this discussion with Matt6461 about the same numbers in the same slide that posters use. He posted that there is a second article where Leeham has different figures for the aircraft where the A380 has more seats and the 77W has less. I have no problem with the figures as it is possible to attain the seating capacities they show, but that isn't a fair comparison so posters need to be careful when they use such figures. Its probable that to have the 344 seats in the 77W as the slide shows you will have less J and F seats compared to the A380 (ratios). The slide isn't an apples to apples comparison in that case.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:01 am

enzo011 wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
Leeham claims that they standardised the seating which is reasonable when one realises that Boeing advertised 467 in the 748 and Leeham only 405.

I think the A380 was at some point 555 in a 3-class config or according to the website now 544 in a 4-class config.

Adjusting the TK 77W seat plan when it still had Y+, I get 341 (8/42/291) at 85" in F, 61" in J and 32" 9-abreast in Y. That is 14.7% premium seats and with a few wasted inches here and there. So 344 seats in a standardised 3-class config as per Leeham is not unreasonable.

Moving to the 748, if we use the LH as a baseline, I get in excess of 400 seats as well. If I use Boeing's seat plan from the ACAPS, assume they were still using the archaic breakdown of 61" in F and 39" in J and adjust it for 81" in F, 61" in J and keep the Y pitch the same as they have it, I get 422 (8/58/356). That is 15.6% premium seats.

The A380 will likely have 555 seats, if not more.

So, all are in the ballpark of Leehams assumptions and calculations. The A380 seat count should be increased for the analysis that they conducted.

Also, before someone argues comfort levels, the A380 will be the most comfortable without question just due to its gargantuan size which will give the air of spaciousness even though the seats will be roughly equal.



I had this discussion with Matt6461 about the same numbers in the same slide that posters use. He posted that there is a second article where Leeham has different figures for the aircraft where the A380 has more seats and the 77W has less. I have no problem with the figures as it is possible to attain the seating capacities they show, but that isn't a fair comparison so posters need to be careful when they use such figures. Its probable that to have the 344 seats in the 77W as the slide shows you will have less J and F seats compared to the A380 (ratios). The slide isn't an apples to apples comparison in that case.


The A380 should have more seats. If we keep the premium cabin proportion the same (+-15% of total seats), it should have waaaay more. The A380 tends to be premium heavy.

My point is, the conclusions based on the calculations done by Leeham for the 77W and 748 are not unreasonable and unjustifiable. The figures they give for the A380 will change and be more efficient if more seats are added, as they should. Based on Leehams analysis and adjusting for more realistic capacities, the 77W and 748 will be as efficient as noted by them but the A380 will be more efficient, likely even better than the 77W. So while the A380 should be (and probably is) better than concluded, the 77W and (the subject of this thread) will not be, and should not be looked at as being, worse.

Little Disclaimer: These are all just based on my back of envelope calculations and I could, in all likelihood, be wrong. I am always ready and willing to learn so if my perceptions of things change and become clear in my comments, please do not hold it against me as I may have made conclusions on things prior to more information becoming available to me.
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:14 am

jfk777 wrote:
Flighty wrote:
I would guess yes. The cost of the 748 per trip (including ownership cost) is lower than A380, by all sources. Some A380 operators have struggled to fill them past 80%. So the 748 would have been more profitable for them. Asiana, Thai, maybe others. Just making a generalization that is likely to hold some water.


Malaysia airlines probably would be better off with 748 then the A380 but egos are what they are and in Kuala Lumpor they buy what Singapore Airlines buys.


Actually they'd be better off with the 77W - their fleet planners certainly believes so.
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:30 am

MoKa777 wrote:
The A380 should have more seats. If we keep the premium cabin proportion the same (+-15% of total seats), it should have waaaay more. The A380 tends to be premium heavy.

My point is, the conclusions based on the calculations done by Leeham for the 77W and 748 are not unreasonable and unjustifiable. The figures they give for the A380 will change and be more efficient if more seats are added, as they should. Based on Leehams analysis and adjusting for more realistic capacities, the 77W and 748 will be as efficient as noted by them but the A380 will be more efficient, likely even better than the 77W. So while the A380 should be (and probably is) better than concluded, the 77W and (the subject of this thread) will not be, and should not be looked at as being, worse.

Little Disclaimer: These are all just based on my back of envelope calculations and I could, in all likelihood, be wrong. I am always ready and willing to learn so if my perceptions of things change and become clear in my comments, please do not hold it against me as I may have made conclusions on things prior to more information becoming available to me.



Agreed that the numbers aren't necessarily wrong in the slide or comparison, its just that they aren't a fair comparison. Its then too easy to use the slide to state that the reason why a certain model isn't selling is because of slide A showing how inefficient it is against the competition. The slide may not be an apples to apples comparison. An argument could be made that it is close to real world capacities, where we see airlines use the A380 in a more premium heavy configuration against the 77W, but then the argument becomes more difficult as you are talking about hypothetical numbers on how much a Y seat sells for and what a J seat sells for. Potential revenue is just that, potential and if the extra seats do not sell you do not have revenue, no matter what the potential is.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:34 am

enzo011 wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
The A380 should have more seats. If we keep the premium cabin proportion the same (+-15% of total seats), it should have waaaay more. The A380 tends to be premium heavy.

My point is, the conclusions based on the calculations done by Leeham for the 77W and 748 are not unreasonable and unjustifiable. The figures they give for the A380 will change and be more efficient if more seats are added, as they should. Based on Leehams analysis and adjusting for more realistic capacities, the 77W and 748 will be as efficient as noted by them but the A380 will be more efficient, likely even better than the 77W. So while the A380 should be (and probably is) better than concluded, the 77W and (the subject of this thread) will not be, and should not be looked at as being, worse.

Little Disclaimer: These are all just based on my back of envelope calculations and I could, in all likelihood, be wrong. I am always ready and willing to learn so if my perceptions of things change and become clear in my comments, please do not hold it against me as I may have made conclusions on things prior to more information becoming available to me.



Agreed that the numbers aren't necessarily wrong in the slide or comparison, its just that they aren't a fair comparison. Its then too easy to use the slide to state that the reason why a certain model isn't selling is because of slide A showing how inefficient it is against the competition. The slide may not be an apples to apples comparison. An argument could be made that it is close to real world capacities, where we see airlines use the A380 in a more premium heavy configuration against the 77W, but then the argument becomes more difficult as you are talking about hypothetical numbers on how much a Y seat sells for and what a J seat sells for. Potential revenue is just that, potential and if the extra seats do not sell you do not have revenue, no matter what the potential is.


Agree 100%. Well said.
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:19 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Flighty wrote:
I would guess yes. The cost of the 748 per trip (including ownership cost) is lower than A380, by all sources. Some A380 operators have struggled to fill them past 80%. So the 748 would have been more profitable for them. Asiana, Thai, maybe others. Just making a generalization that is likely to hold some water.


Malaysia airlines probably would be better off with 748 then the A380 but egos are what they are and in Kuala Lumpor they buy what Singapore Airlines buys.


Actually they'd be better off with the 77W - their fleet planners certainly believes so.


I agree 100%.

Current A380 operators (from wikipedia) and whether I believe they may have been better off with the 748 instead of A380:
- AF: No A380 and No 748. They should stick with 77W.
- OZ: Maybe A380 is good for them as I have heard that South Korea has lots of rules for OZ and KE with capacities and frequencies between the 2 and they have not really complained about the A380.
- BA: They make the most sense to operate decent sized fleets of both but their management seems to think otherwise (they do know better, after all).
- CZ: No A380 and No 748. They should stick with 77W.
- EK: Should order 500 748 immediately!
- EY: They seem to make the A380 work and it is good for their image since they outfit it so well, 748 would not add anything of value to them the way the A380 does.
- KE: Same as with OZ.
- LH: They make both work quite well. Very well run airline that can probably make any aircraft look like an overachiever.
- MH: No A380 and No 748. They should have ordered the 77W.
- QF: They need the A380 for those far flung places with high demand. On these longer flights frequencies are not as important. It works for them and I think the 748 may have been an odd size - too small for their most important routes and too big for anything else.
- QR: No A380 and No 748. They should stick with 77W.
- SQ: It works for them and I think the 748 may have been an odd size - too small for their most important routes and too big for anything else.
- TG: No A380 and No 748. They should stick with 77W.
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 1:34 pm

Strato2 wrote:
No and Lufthansa would have been better of buying more A380's and no 748i's at all. Now they have almost half of the entire microscopic worldwide 747-8i fleet with little to no resale value at all so they are forced to fly those planes to the ground just like the A340-600's.


Pfft. They love all their planes to death :-)

LH is very careful to have their capacity granularity just right. No big gaps.
Nothing going for the simplistic approach of one size fits all and frequency is everything.

i.e. in any case LH would have had an eye for a VLA below the A380. ( And the 748 shows quite a bit of LH influence.)
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:51 pm

In the above chart the 380 will have just over 10% more room. Does that actually convert to that much more comfort in the seat? Or in gaining access to restrooms? Or in making meal and snack service easier? If it did all three it would be a no brainer - pay 10-15% more to fly in a 380.
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:10 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
jfk777 wrote:

Malaysia airlines probably would be better off with 748 then the A380 but egos are what they are and in Kuala Lumpor they buy what Singapore Airlines buys.


Actually they'd be better off with the 77W - their fleet planners certainly believes so.


I agree 100%.


I agree 100% too, but that wasn't the question. If I ran these airlines and had a choice between A380 and B748, I would choose B748, in the case of most of these airlines. But, as noted, nobody actually faced that choice in real life. And a few ordered both, so that is neat. I wonder which performs better.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:24 pm

olympic472 wrote:
China Southern comes to mind regarding the 380.
Air China added the 747-8i and they seem to work for them.


China Southern has been restricted on where they can use the A380 to routes where it's sub-optimal due to it's size relative to traffic demand.
 
sgbroimp
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:37 pm

flee wrote:
B748 was late to the market - it was possible to order the A380 way before the B748 was available. So airlines did not have much of a choice when they were doing their investment appraisals. It was either the A380 or the B744.


Correct and can the OP's question really be properly answered until each of these two fine aircraft near the end of their lives? Which, of course, will be a two different times as flee indirectly points out.
 
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caoimhin
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:14 pm

airzona11 wrote:
Would be great if BA ran a high J 748 like LH does.


I agree, but I think the GE engine exclusivity made the 748 a tough sell for Boeing to BA.
 
81819
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:17 pm

I suspect QF would have been better off with the 747-8 (although the timing wouldn't have worked) purely on the basis of not having two types of aircraft in a relatively small VLA fleet.

If we consider pilot training, aircraft capacity for operational spares, spare parts, training and the logistics of mixing and matching two different types of aircraft on a single route there would have been many advantages associated with using one aircraft type.

If we go back to the years when QF was bringing the A380 into the fleet they amassed (from memory) costs of approximately $150 million for integration related costs. It was also a time when the international business dramatically went from being profitable to not profitable.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:43 pm

caoimhin wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Would be great if BA ran a high J 748 like LH does.


I agree, but I think the GE engine exclusivity made the 748 a tough sell for Boeing to BA.


Didn't stop them from buying and leasing 777-300ERs which are GE exclusive.

People I have faith in said RR made an offer on the Trent 900 that GE was not willing to match on the GEnx. Combined with other factors, that pushed BA to the A380 over the 747-8.
 
Tedd
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:14 am

caoimhin wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Would be great if BA ran a high J 748 like LH does.


I agree, but I think the GE engine exclusivity made the 748 a tough sell for Boeing to BA.


I think this is true, & probably not just for BA. Airlines do like a choice, & if the manufacturers don`t take
preferences into account it could hurt sales. The B748 is a great plane, evenly matched in most areas
to the A380, & it should have sold better. It may have come as a shock to a lot of prospective customers
that Boeing wouldn`t consider such a valued customer as BA for the type, to go ahead with a new version
knowing the importance of RR to them. Could this exclusivity have swayed airlines to go with the competing
aircraft that did offer the choice? This theory could be totally without merit I admit, but I believe it may have
been a detrimental decision for the B748.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:28 am

I think the real question is, are there any airlines who have purchased the A380 who would have been better of with the Boeing 77W?

The Boeing 77W is beter in almost every aspect then the Boeing 747-8i.
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flee
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:21 am

Dutchy wrote:
I think the real question is, are there any airlines who have purchased the A380 who would have been better of with the Boeing 77W?

The Boeing 77W is beter in almost every aspect then the Boeing 747-8i.

I believe a lot of B77W vs A388 comparisons were done and the A388 only won on CASK/CASM studies by virtue that it has more seats. The answer was clear - the A380 is only better than the B77W if the airline concerned is able to fill a substantial part of the aircraft. It would need load factors above 80% to achieve that.

Airbus is now evaluating whether to proceed with A350-2000 development because it appears that the A380 cannot be better than the B777X, even with a NEO. It will still need a stretch (JL said it would add about 50 seats) to make CASK/CASM more attractive. This will only rekindle the old B77W vs A380 debate (B777X vs A380NEO) whereas the A350-2000 will have the potential to be better than both the A380NEO and B777X.

The next two or three years will be an interesting time for observers.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:36 am

MH I believe could have made it work.

Another question is which airlines would have made the 748i work had they not ordered the 77W/787 with a downgraded product compared to the standard pitrch/width say 5-8 years ago. i.e economy section of 10 or 9 abreast in a 777/787. All speculation and I know Y Pax are pretty much space fillers after F & J (and some say cargo space). CX, NZ, AC come to mind
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:52 am

Several carriers particularly ones with 5-6 A380's I think could have been better served by a larger number of smaller aircraft 77W particularly maybe 748I for 1-2. OZ, MH, TG, CZ. Personally I think for a plane that big a fleet of 8-10 is a bit more flexible.

OZ 6 A380's copied KE. A fleet of 77W would have been better given they already had 77E's.

MH 6 A380's copied SQ, they have 1 route LHR where these aircraft go now, seems a waste and they ar getting rid of them replaced by A359's where they can build a better overall network and have flexibility.

TG 6 A380's, they do have a few routes like LHR, FRA, CDG, NRT, KIX some seasonal and they drop a route when heavy maintenance comes up. They still have several 10 744's flying to SYD, MUC and the rest regional mainly. Maybe a case for a fleet of 10-12 748's.

CZ 5 A380's, China is huge but CA might have been better to give the A380's to than CZ. CZ could use smaller aircraft like the 77W, A333 for their hub ops at CAN.

AF 10 A380's. While AF can certainly use the aircraft they seem to move around the network a lot and given their state they would probably be better off without them at all, they have a huge 777 fleet which again has a lot more flexibility.

LH 14 A380's. LH seem to have a use for the A380 and 19 748's plus 13 744's still. They did cancel 3 A380's and 1 748 but they play an important role from LH. They are more than likely replacing the remaining 744's with the 779's on order.

BA 12 A380's. BA I think are defiantly a case where they could use more A380's on their longest high capacity routes to the US west coast Asia, Africa and South America. They have replaced routes like LAX with 2 A380's from 3 744's where as HKG, SFO etc have gone from 2 744's to 1 A380, 1 77W I think due the reasonable poor freight capacity of the A380 but still an important aircraft for their network.

SQ 19 A380's they will replace the oldest 5 aircraft with new A380's in 2017. I think SQ always have a need for the aircraft to LHR, they said it was cheaper to run 1 A380 rather than 2 77W's to places like CDG, ZRH a few years ago plus FRA and SYD, MEL, AKL along with several high capacity short hauls defiantly still see a place for a fleet of 14-16 frames in the long run. I do think 19 might be a few to many.

KE 10 A380's. Certainly a need for the aircraft to the busiest cities in the US and Europe they go to SYD seasonally but with 94J seats compared to 28 on the A333 that does SYD in winter it seems an odd fit there, just an overall capacity thing. They like LH also use the 748I which is more Y heavy, personally their fleet is odd in that all long haul aircraft have 3 classes, I think they could almost use a few more A380's and a second config of 77W which is Y heavy and ditch the 748I.

QF 12 A380's. QF are happy with what they have and the aircraft works well on LAX, DFW, DXB, LHR.

QR and EY I don't no enough about and EK we all no about.

A few that could use the A380.

CA as I said earlier probably IMO seem a better fit than CZ and CA do have the 748I but IMO wouldn't need both. Probably 8-10.

CX. They are a frequency carrier but HKG is pretty full. Some for the peak time flights to LHR, JFK, LAX, SFO and busiest regional routes. A fleet of 12-15.

IB. IAG have talked about it, maybe routes like EZE, MEX, GRU I'm not sure how seasonal these are but they run 2-3 daily A346's on some of these. Could they use a fleet of say 8? I'm not sure about transferring aircraft between IAG.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:28 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Several carriers particularly ones with 5-6 A380's I think could have been better served by a larger number of smaller aircraft 77W particularly maybe 748I for 1-2. OZ, MH, TG, CZ. Personally I think for a plane that big a fleet of 8-10 is a bit more flexible.

OZ 6 A380's copied KE. A fleet of 77W would have been better given they already had 77E's.

MH 6 A380's copied SQ, they have 1 route LHR where these aircraft go now, seems a waste and they ar getting rid of them replaced by A359's where they can build a better overall network and have flexibility.

TG 6 A380's, they do have a few routes like LHR, FRA, CDG, NRT, KIX some seasonal and they drop a route when heavy maintenance comes up. They still have several 10 744's flying to SYD, MUC and the rest regional mainly. Maybe a case for a fleet of 10-12 748's.

CZ 5 A380's, China is huge but CA might have been better to give the A380's to than CZ. CZ could use smaller aircraft like the 77W, A333 for their hub ops at CAN.

AF 10 A380's. While AF can certainly use the aircraft they seem to move around the network a lot and given their state they would probably be better off without them at all, they have a huge 777 fleet which again has a lot more flexibility.

LH 14 A380's. LH seem to have a use for the A380 and 19 748's plus 13 744's still. They did cancel 3 A380's and 1 748 but they play an important role from LH. They are more than likely replacing the remaining 744's with the 779's on order.

BA 12 A380's. BA I think are defiantly a case where they could use more A380's on their longest high capacity routes to the US west coast Asia, Africa and South America. They have replaced routes like LAX with 2 A380's from 3 744's where as HKG, SFO etc have gone from 2 744's to 1 A380, 1 77W I think due the reasonable poor freight capacity of the A380 but still an important aircraft for their network.

SQ 19 A380's they will replace the oldest 5 aircraft with new A380's in 2017. I think SQ always have a need for the aircraft to LHR, they said it was cheaper to run 1 A380 rather than 2 77W's to places like CDG, ZRH a few years ago plus FRA and SYD, MEL, AKL along with several high capacity short hauls defiantly still see a place for a fleet of 14-16 frames in the long run. I do think 19 might be a few to many.

KE 10 A380's. Certainly a need for the aircraft to the busiest cities in the US and Europe they go to SYD seasonally but with 94J seats compared to 28 on the A333 that does SYD in winter it seems an odd fit there, just an overall capacity thing. They like LH also use the 748I which is more Y heavy, personally their fleet is odd in that all long haul aircraft have 3 classes, I think they could almost use a few more A380's and a second config of 77W which is Y heavy and ditch the 748I.

QF 12 A380's. QF are happy with what they have and the aircraft works well on LAX, DFW, DXB, LHR.

QR and EY I don't no enough about and EK we all no about.

A few that could use the A380.

CA as I said earlier probably IMO seem a better fit than CZ and CA do have the 748I but IMO wouldn't need both. Probably 8-10.

CX. They are a frequency carrier but HKG is pretty full. Some for the peak time flights to LHR, JFK, LAX, SFO and busiest regional routes. A fleet of 12-15.

IB. IAG have talked about it, maybe routes like EZE, MEX, GRU I'm not sure how seasonal these are but they run 2-3 daily A346's on some of these. Could they use a fleet of say 8? I'm not sure about transferring aircraft between IAG.


Nice and reasonable analysis.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:07 am

The question here is not would some airlines be better served by 777-300ER than using A380, but would be airlines have been better served by the 747-8i than the A380. The simple answer is no. The airlines having bought both the 747-8i and the A380 must have got an unresistable offer on price by Boeing on the 747-8i.
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:18 pm

when was the last time Airbus sold an A380?
 
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:21 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Seriously, Boeing made a mistake when they decided to do the 747-8.


But the 748 is part of a much bigger 747 family whereas Airbus made a mistake with the A380 which is essentially to this point in time, only one aircraft type. BIG DIFFERENCE.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:53 pm

enzo011 wrote:
I had this discussion with Matt6461 about the same numbers in the same slide that posters use. He posted that there is a second article where Leeham has different figures for the aircraft where the A380 has more seats and the 77W has less.


That's right, Leeham re-ran its analysis here (behind paywall): http://leehamnews.com/2014/12/17/a380-a ... titivness/

Leeham readjusted seating for all models according to standardized seating rules (apples-apples).
The A380 and 9ab 77W were basically equal on fuel efficiency but the A380 had a ~10% CASM advantage, depending on the price of fuel (due to lower mx and capital costs per seat).
The 748i was slightly less efficient than the 77W per seat, a fact that even Boeing marketing has admitted.
A380's CASM edge over the 748i was ~16%, slightly varying with the price of fuel.

Here's what I consider the crucial metric: Marginal Capacity Cost = (delta capacity) / (delta trip cost)
MCC tells you how much it costs to fly extra seats in a bigger plane versus a smaller plane, which tells you how much revenue you need to break even on the extra seats.
This is far more important, IMO, than simple CASM. It mean that a bigger plane must be much more efficient, and that efficiency must increase with size.
That's just common sense to me, but yet folks here sometimes throw around CASM as if it - viewed independently of capacity and trip cost - tells you everything.

The A380's MCC versus the 748i is a very good ~44% on Leeham's numbers.
This means that the marginal seats added by an A380 need only 44% of the 748i's RASM to achieve operational break even.
Versus the 77W, the A380's MCC is a less-than-stellar ~70% pre-cargo and approaches 90% if you normalize for passenger-equivalent cargo revenue.

As I've written elsewhere, airline yield curves drop off steeply when you have to start boarding double-connectors and other low-yielding pax to fill a bigger plane.
Accordingly, my tabulations of publicly-available analyses show that MCC has to be no more than ~60% for a bigger plane to be broadly preferred over smaller competition.
When a bigger plane has less than 50% MCC, as with 787-9 over the -8, airlines will migrate to the bigger plane.

So I'm not surprised that the A380 is much more popular than the 748i (although neither plane is very popular).

My MCC analysis is, however, a description of broad average trends. It doesn't mean that a bigger plane with 80% MCC will never be better, or that a smaller plane with bigger competitiors at 40% MCC will never be better. The idiosyncracies of a particular airline may dictate an unusual choice.

Therefore, I'd hesitate to say that this or that airline would have done better subbing A380's for 748i's.

What is clear, however, is that the A380 is a vastly better plane than the 748i. That's to be expected, considering that the 748i is still flying on the basic structure of a wing designed in the '60's, and that its fuselage form - while revolutionary for its time - is not very efficient (too much wasted tapering space in the rear).

Boeing seems to have expected the 748F to be the program centerpiece, with a few 748i orders thrown in as gravy (though surely more 748i orders than they actually received).
Last edited by Matt6461 on Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:01 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
Boeing seems to have expected the 748F to be the program centerpiece, with a few 748i orders thrown in as gravy (though surely more 748i orders than they actually received).

In the very very early days it was the other way round, IIRC. Boeing expected to sell more -i's than -F's.
 
Tedd
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:07 pm

jumbojet wrote:
when was the last time Airbus sold an A380?


Not a fair question considering the VLA has been shrinking for some time, & certainly not a constructive
reply to a decently answered opinion to the OP`s headline. While it could be argued there may have been
some airlines better off with said Boeing, at the end of the day if the B748 was a better plane, then it would
have outsold the A380. More modern, more room to play with to offer suits, showers, bars etc, higher overall
capacity leading to better CASM for most, engine choice, prestige even. You can see it`s advantages however
small in fact they may have been.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Did Any Airline Purchase the A380 and Would Have Been Better Served with the 748?

Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:07 pm

jumbojet wrote:
when was the last time Airbus sold an A380?


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