777LRF
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How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:55 pm

We've talked about this topic on several occasions years ago but with the current market situation on the Kangaroo Route, how's BA been doing ever since they put the 77W on the route. Is the route making any profit and either way, could BA decide they could make better use of their aircraft elsewhere and can it one day altogether since that has been the trend. It's not easy to compete with those like EK-level costs with better located hubs so is the future of this route already sealed?
 
LondonCity
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 2:59 pm

It's a subject that's been endlessly discussed ...

But since the question was last raised, Qantas has announced those non-stop flights from LHR to PER from where there is expected to be a domestic connection.

Although Qantas is not starting these flights until 2018 ... could they have an impact on BA ?

In the short-term, however, I believe the Mixed Fleet crew operate BA's LHR-SYD service. And they have just decided to go on strike ...

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/new ... 80596.html
 
qf002
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:16 pm

There are plenty of QF loyalists who prefer to avoid DXB for whatever reason and BA is a natural alternative for these people with a familiar transit through SIN and the opportunity to still earn QFF points. Many of these people would have flown BA at one point or another under the old QF/BA JV anyway.

SYD-SIN in itself is a huge market (up to 10 daily flights, all with big aircraft) so I can't see BA having too much trouble picking up some traffic in the local market especially given that QF has dropped a bit of J capacity with their A330 reconfigurations (from 60-66J a day down to 56J per day). The QF flights are always full in J.

So overall I'd say they are doing okay but it's always impossible to know for sure.
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:45 pm

It's reported to be profitable and there was a concerted effort some time ago to turn it around (moving to T5, putting a 777-300 on the route).

I think it's a route BA wanted to keep in its network so I don't think it will be dropped.
 
sevenair
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:50 pm

I don't think routes that BA 'want' will feature under Alex Cruz. If it doesn't make money it will be cut. Vanity routes are a distant memory at BA.
 
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Channex757
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 4:10 pm

LondonCity wrote:
It's a subject that's been endlessly discussed ...

But since the question was last raised, Qantas has announced those non-stop flights from LHR to PER from where there is expected to be a domestic connection.

Although Qantas is not starting these flights until 2018 ... could they have an impact on BA ?


I don't really think so.

Those QF flights will need to be sold at decent fare levels. That precludes Sydney or Melbourne passengers joining the flights using domestic connections. To pick up a passenger on the routing SYD-PER-LHR then QF is going to have to sell that ticket at a competitive fare. That means a fare that competes against all the other carriers on the route no matter where they stop en route. Qantas is only going to get the benefit of PER-LHR if it's a ticket sold to someone joining at Perth and sold at a healthy price.

People nowadays increasingly buy their tickets on pricing. In these days of online fare comparison sites access to competing fares out of SYD takes seconds. Similarly, those travelling for business are also increasingly cost-conscious (look at how international First is slowly dying off and the growth of Premium Y) so beyond the local market at Perth, I don't see the route affecting the Australia-Europe market much at all.
 
DCAfan
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 4:21 pm

My impression is its a marginal route for BA. Otherwise, BA would also be serving Tullamarine.
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 4:49 pm

sevenair wrote:
I don't think routes that BA 'want' will feature under Alex Cruz. If it doesn't make money it will be cut. Vanity routes are a distant memory at BA.


Absolutely no different to Keith Williams or Willie Walsh.
 
parapente
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 4:49 pm

Looking into the future.The 777-8 will (with a near certainty) be able to fly Sydney to London non stop.I think it will happen someday and BA is the sort of airline with its premium heavy mix that could make it happen.Until then I think ,as others,that it will soldier on with the present 777 arrangement via Singapore.
People have said in the past.'oh I won't fly 'X' hours,'then it was 'Y' hours but they did.There is a new generation of super efficient ULR aircraft coming into service (789/359/778).Perceptions may change...again.
 
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XAM2175
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:02 pm

The general consensus (as far as I can tell) at the moment with QF PER-LHR is that it will actually be MEL-PER-LHR, replacing QF's current MEL-DXB-LHR service, which may in turn be replaced by an EK sector.

There will definitely be demand on the PER-LHR service from passengers in SYD and MEL, as well as from BNE, ADL, DRW, and a bunch of other places which for the first time here will get one-stop service to Europe entirely on QF metal.

I think it fairly safe to say though that this will also come with a premium price and so the effect on BA will almost certainly be negligible.
As qf002 notes, SYD-SIN on its own is a high-demand route, and alongside CX through HKG the BA service is a well-regarded option for Oneworld fliers preferring to avoid carriers and transit stops in Middle East.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:41 pm

LHRFlyer wrote:
It's reported to be profitable and there was a concerted effort some time ago to turn it around (moving to T5, putting a 777-300 on the route).

I think it's a route BA wanted to keep in its network so I don't think it will be dropped.


The other massive saving, apart from moving it to T5 and putting the 777-300ER on the route was switching the Cabin Crew from Worldwide Fleet to Mixed Fleet. This is a massive benefit to the costs as the salaries are lower and the contracts require less night stop time which saves on hotels and so on.

It was marginal and now it is profitable as you have noted. Great to see the service in place and hopefully it will remain so for many years to come.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:11 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
It's reported to be profitable and there was a concerted effort some time ago to turn it around (moving to T5, putting a 777-300 on the route).

I think it's a route BA wanted to keep in its network so I don't think it will be dropped.


The other massive saving, apart from moving it to T5 and putting the 777-300ER on the route was switching the Cabin Crew from Worldwide Fleet to Mixed Fleet. This is a massive benefit to the costs as the salaries are lower and the contracts require less night stop time which saves on hotels and so on.

It was marginal and now it is profitable as you have noted. Great to see the service in place and hopefully it will remain so for many years to come.


We'll see in the longer term whether Unite will push to move "mixed fleet" rates up closer to Worldwide Fleet rates. I was pretty surprised at the disparity. I think the fuel savings switching from the 744 to the 77W far exceeds the cost savings on crew.
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:35 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
We'll see in the longer term whether Unite will push to move "mixed fleet" rates up closer to Worldwide Fleet rates. I was pretty surprised at the disparity. I think the fuel savings switching from the 744 to the 77W far exceeds the cost savings on crew.


Realistically, Unite knows that they will never get Mixed T&Cs to Worldwide levels.

With regard to savings by moving the route to Mixed Fleet, before Worldwide agreed to consolidate their allowances into a monthly travel payment around the time of the introduction of the A380 there were huge disparities in the levels of allowances earned on long-haul trips. Some routes would earn £100. Others would earn around £900.

SIN and SYD used to be very expensive to crew on Worldwide because the allowances were so high and moving the route to Mixed Fleet at the time generated savings equivalent to 3 extra business class seats per flight.

Even if the route went back to Worldwide the route would not be as expensive to operate as it used to be because they've since reformed their allowances system.
 
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FlyCaledonian
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 9:59 pm

A combination of things helped turn SYD, on anecdotal evidence, around:
  • Switch from 744 to 77W - better operating costs and fewer Y seats.
  • Switch from Worldwide to Mixed Fleet crew - shorter trip length and lower costs (wages/allowances).
  • BA dropping the BKK-SYD flight - less seats to fill overall to SYD, meaning can aim to raise yield.
  • The end of the BA/QF joint venture - again, suggestions that in a changed environment BA/QF had too much capacity overall to try and fill.

The 77W seems a good fit for the flight. If it were needed BA could have switched to the 789 for the flight, but I suspect they appreciate the capacity on the LHR-SIN leg alongside the A380.

sevenair wrote:
I don't think routes that BA 'want' will feature under Alex Cruz. If it doesn't make money it will be cut. Vanity routes are a distant memory at BA.

If it wasn't performing I think BA would have cut the route. BA has shown it has been willing to drop routes already that were there from the BOAC days - just look at the reduced African network.

DCAfan wrote:
My impression is its a marginal route for BA. Otherwise, BA would also be serving Tullamarine.

If it was still marginal I think it would have been dropped. BA are effectively using three 77Ws to serve this route and until the 789s came in over the last twelve months BA had hardly been flush with spare longhaul capacity. They dropped LHR-SIN-MEL at the time the bilateral with India was relaxed because despite being profitable (not marginal) BA felt that they could make even more money freeing up those 744s by operating a LHR-SIN return instead (28 hour round trip for one 744) and using the other two elsewhere, i.e. essentially DEL and BOM that went double daily (even if a 744 freed up a 772 from another route).

The problem serving MEL would be whether they could find a suitable stopover point. BKK is a candidate for a ten-abreast 772 so that routing would be out. KUL probably too low yielding. Would they want to go three daily LHR-HKG just to add a HKG-MEL tag? They could replace the A380 on LHR-SIN with a 77W and add a LHR-SIN-MEL flight with another 77W, but that would be over half the 77W fleet tied up on one route (LHR-SIN) and the tags to SYD/MEL (plus an extra LHR slot pair) to keep LHR-SIN capacity flat(-ish).

If SYD was marginal they might have introduced the 789 but it remains on the 77W. A bit like EZE (which until the non-stop to SCL was announced was BA's longest route) remains on a 772 which suggests that is another longhaul route that might not be as a marginal as some people think.
Let's Go British Caledonian!
 
shamrock321
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:02 pm

The trip length for WW and MF is the same, don't be surprised if you see it move back soonish either!
 
kriskim
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sun Dec 18, 2016 1:20 am

FlyCaledonian wrote:
The problem serving MEL would be whether they could find a suitable stopover point. BKK is a candidate for a ten-abreast 772 so that routing would be out. KUL probably too low yielding. Would they want to go three daily LHR-HKG just to add a HKG-MEL tag? They could replace the A380 on LHR-SIN with a 77W and add a LHR-SIN-MEL flight with another 77W, but that would be over half the 77W fleet tied up on one route (LHR-SIN) and the tags to SYD/MEL (plus an extra LHR slot pair) to keep LHR-SIN capacity flat(-ish)


Word on the street was that BA was considering LHR-KUL-MEL with MEL possibly being tagged to the current KUL services.

With CX being restricted, maybe BA can look at MEL-HKG. Same can be said for QR, with the airline owning a small stake in IAG, maybe a BA-QR JV for Australia flights via DOH? QR is quite weak against EK and EY in MEL with only a single daily flight which will soon be upgraded to an A380. BA can operate LHR-DOH-MEL, which gives both airlines x2 daily. This idea doesn't sound too far off with EY considering using AZ to operate MEL/SYD services via AUH too.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
Ryanair01
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sun Dec 18, 2016 1:19 pm

From what I have heard from colleagues flying the service loads are not especially quiet, I've not seen them discount much either, which would suggest they are doing OK.

It's still quite a long way from their heyday in the 1990s serving Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane with 747s, now all but SYD is codeshare on CX or QF metal.
 
getluv
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sun Dec 18, 2016 1:52 pm

BA doesn't codeshare on QF's SYD-SIN/HKG-SYD services anymore.
I'm that bad type.
 
Ryanair01
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sun Dec 18, 2016 2:00 pm

getluv wrote:
BA doesn't codeshare on QF's SYD-SIN/HKG-SYD services anymore.


Glad a wrote "all but SYD" then :)
 
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Channex757
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sun Dec 18, 2016 2:05 pm

BA Cargo is also a consideration for keeping the SYD route alive. The 773ER is ideal for this job too. There will always be some priority or high value freight between Australia and the UK to round out the empty positions under the deck.
 
getluv
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sun Dec 18, 2016 2:19 pm

Ryanair01 wrote:
getluv wrote:
BA doesn't codeshare on QF's SYD-SIN/HKG-SYD services anymore.


Glad a wrote "all but SYD" then :)


They still code on CX's HKG-SYD flights.
I'm that bad type.
 
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FlyCaledonian
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:47 pm

kriskim wrote:
FlyCaledonian wrote:
The problem serving MEL would be whether they could find a suitable stopover point. BKK is a candidate for a ten-abreast 772 so that routing would be out. KUL probably too low yielding. Would they want to go three daily LHR-HKG just to add a HKG-MEL tag? They could replace the A380 on LHR-SIN with a 77W and add a LHR-SIN-MEL flight with another 77W, but that would be over half the 77W fleet tied up on one route (LHR-SIN) and the tags to SYD/MEL (plus an extra LHR slot pair) to keep LHR-SIN capacity flat(-ish)


Word on the street was that BA was considering LHR-KUL-MEL with MEL possibly being tagged to the current KUL services.

With CX being restricted, maybe BA can look at MEL-HKG. Same can be said for QR, with the airline owning a small stake in IAG, maybe a BA-QR JV for Australia flights via DOH? QR is quite weak against EK and EY in MEL with only a single daily flight which will soon be upgraded to an A380. BA can operate LHR-DOH-MEL, which gives both airlines x2 daily. This idea doesn't sound too far off with EY considering using AZ to operate MEL/SYD services via AUH too.

The thing with a BA/QR joint venture is that it would require a change in the dynamic between BA and QR. Heck, BA have only just started serving Doha non-stop after serving it one-stop via Bahrain for a number of years. BA would need to add some more LHR-DOH flights, likely requiring QR to drop some they operate to avoid overkill. DOH was a stopover previously for BA on the kangaroo route so I am sure the bilateral still allows it (bit like QF was able to switch to using DXB in the EK deal). However, it is a question of whether the UK/EU and Australian authorities would approve any such deal. Plus BA would need some additional longhaul aircraft to start adding some trips to Australia. If it happened where would BA serve?
  • LHR-DOH-PER - could work with a 789, with BA having a good product and aim to try keep traffic on a one-stop versus QF non-stop.
  • LHR-DOH-MEL - again, could work with a 789, by adding an additional flight to compliment QR and have an own metal non-stop
Let's Go British Caledonian!
 
bastew
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:48 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
It's reported to be profitable and there was a concerted effort some time ago to turn it around (moving to T5, putting a 777-300 on the route).

I think it's a route BA wanted to keep in its network so I don't think it will be dropped.


The other massive saving, apart from moving it to T5 and putting the 777-300ER on the route was switching the Cabin Crew from Worldwide Fleet to Mixed Fleet. This is a massive benefit to the costs as the salaries are lower and the contracts require less night stop time which saves on hotels and so on.

It was marginal and now it is profitable as you have noted. Great to see the service in place and hopefully it will remain so for many years to come.


The crew savings are pretty huge actually. When us old lot were operating the route the SYD/SIN trip was worth c£1400 in 'variable' pay. For Mixed Fleet it's more like £500. So 13 cabin crew, £900 more per crew member per day. £11,700. Per week, £81,900. Per year c£4,3M.
 
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LionelHutz
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:17 am

bastew wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
It's reported to be profitable and there was a concerted effort some time ago to turn it around (moving to T5, putting a 777-300 on the route).

I think it's a route BA wanted to keep in its network so I don't think it will be dropped.


The other massive saving, apart from moving it to T5 and putting the 777-300ER on the route was switching the Cabin Crew from Worldwide Fleet to Mixed Fleet. This is a massive benefit to the costs as the salaries are lower and the contracts require less night stop time which saves on hotels and so on.

It was marginal and now it is profitable as you have noted. Great to see the service in place and hopefully it will remain so for many years to come.


The crew savings are pretty huge actually. When us old lot were operating the route the SYD/SIN trip was worth c£1400 in 'variable' pay. For Mixed Fleet it's more like £500. So 13 cabin crew, £900 more per crew member per day. £11,700. Per week, £81,900. Per year c£4,3M.


That is a really substantial saving just for one leg on one route!
What exactly is the difference between worldwide and mixed fleet cabin crew?
 
bastew
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:28 am

Up until 2010 there were two cabin crew 'fleets' at LHR. Eurofleet which operated short haul routes and Worldwide which operated longhaul routes. BA wanted the crew on these fleets to accept vastly reduced terms and conditions which led to industrial action and when the existing crew did not accept the new T&C's BA ended recruitment onto these fleets (now called the 'legacy fleets') and instead began a new fleet 'Mixed Fleet' at LHR on vastly reduced money, terms and conditions. Mixed Fleet is basically a self contained airline within an airline fleet. All ranks from Junior Cabin Crew to the Customer Service Managers (CSM) were recruited new or a few internally for the role of CSM. Very few have left the legacy fleets to join Mixed Fleet. I'm still a junior on Worldwide fleet and end up with more in the bank than my CSM friends on Mixed Fleet so there was little motivation.

Unlike Worldwide or Eurofleet, Mixed Fleet operate both long and shorthaul routes.

Their salaries are around 60-70% that of the legacy fleets.

The legacy fleets work to very complex and strict 'Scheduling Agreements'. These are union negotiated industrial agreements generally far more generous than the regulatory regulations. These are black and white and non negotiable. Mixed Fleet work to a loose 'scheduling framework'. In other words, flexible.

After six years Mixed Fleet now number around 42% of cabin crew at LHR as a headcount equivalent. The growth has been achieved by expansion of routes, voluntary redundancy on the legacy fleets but mainly down to the fact that around 70% of crew on the legacy fleets are on some form of part-time contract (33%/50%/75% on worldwide).

Whilst non voluntary redundancy turnover on the legacy fleets remains at under 2% the Mixed Fleet rate is closer to 20%. Although this is apparently by design.
 
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LionelHutz
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:56 am

bastew wrote:
Up until 2010 there were two cabin crew 'fleets' at LHR. Eurofleet which operated short haul routes and Worldwide which operated longhaul routes. BA wanted the crew on these fleets to accept vastly reduced terms and conditions which led to industrial action and when the existing crew did not accept the new T&C's BA ended recruitment onto these fleets (now called the 'legacy fleets') and instead began a new fleet 'Mixed Fleet' at LHR on vastly reduced money, terms and conditions. Mixed Fleet is basically a self contained airline within an airline fleet. All ranks from Junior Cabin Crew to the Customer Service Managers (CSM) were recruited new or a few internally for the role of CSM. Very few have left the legacy fleets to join Mixed Fleet. I'm still a junior on Worldwide fleet and end up with more in the bank than my CSM friends on Mixed Fleet so there was little motivation.

Unlike Worldwide or Eurofleet, Mixed Fleet operate both long and shorthaul routes.

Their salaries are around 60-70% that of the legacy fleets.

The legacy fleets work to very complex and strict 'Scheduling Agreements'. These are union negotiated industrial agreements generally far more generous than the regulatory regulations. These are black and white and non negotiable. Mixed Fleet work to a loose 'scheduling framework'. In other words, flexible.

After six years Mixed Fleet now number around 42% of cabin crew at LHR as a headcount equivalent. The growth has been achieved by expansion of routes, voluntary redundancy on the legacy fleets but mainly down to the fact that around 70% of crew on the legacy fleets are on some form of part-time contract (33%/50%/75% on worldwide).

Whilst non voluntary redundancy turnover on the legacy fleets remains at under 2% the Mixed Fleet rate is closer to 20%. Although this is apparently by design.


Thanks for the explanation :checkmark:
An all too familiar process as air travel has become increasingly a commodity product (in Y at least).
 
vv701
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:22 pm

Until the start of the 2013 Summer Season BA operated a 'Mid J' configured, 337 seat B 744 to SYD.

Since then they have operated their 297 seat 77W on the Kangaroo route. The configuration of this type, F14 / J56 / W44 / Y183,. is more premium-rich than the 744s previously operated (F14 / J52 / W36 / Y235). This too is likely to have impacted route profitability with the a likely higher average yield per passenger.
 
tonystan
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:21 am

vv701 wrote:
Until the start of the 2013 Summer Season BA operated a 'Mid J' configured, 337 seat B 744 to SYD.

Since then they have operated their 297 seat 77W on the Kangaroo route. The configuration of this type, F14 / J56 / W44 / Y183,. is more premium-rich than the 744s previously operated (F14 / J52 / W36 / Y235). This too is likely to have impacted route profitability with the a likely higher average yield per passenger.


Actually they had the 777-200 on it for a good number of years before the 77W.
My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
 
vv701
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Re: How is BA doing in SYD?

Sat Dec 24, 2016 2:29 am

It is correct that LHR-SIN-SYD-SIN-LHR (BA015/16) was operated by a 772 up until 23 March 2012 when it was flown by G-YMMG, However the following day this rotation was operated by 'Mid J' 744 G-CIVD. Then every flight on this routing up until the introduction of the 77W was operated by a 'Mid J' 744.

Prior to April 2012 when the 772 was replaced by the 744 on this routing BA operated a second flight to SYD. BA009/10 operated via BKK. This flight was operated by a 'Mid J' 744 while BA015/16 was operated by a 772.

In summary until the introduction of the 77W on the Kangaroo Route BA has flown a daily 'Mid J' 744 to SYD for many, many years except for a brief period when BA009/10 was flown by a 744 but only out of LHR on Day 7.

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