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miaskies
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:20 am

Varsity1 wrote:
miaskies wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Any word on MQ gaining back an MIA base? I was under the impression that YX is a candidate to have it's flying pulled. The BK stunt didn't impress AA.


I don't think YX is in line to have its flying pulled from AA, a couple of factors: AA just gave YX "American Shuttle" flying in November. It is currently flying 175's for both American Eagle and American Eagle. YX flies 88 E75's for AA, of which 38 will be reconfigured to the current 76 seating config from current 80 seaters; the first 9 refurbished birds are back in service with AA next month. If AA were to want cut YX flying Delta or United would JUMP at those 88 E175's; just like AA, all 3 legacy love that airplane.

That said ORD and DFW will be exclusive MQ 175 bases. So the YX birds that were based in ORD have now been sent to MIA, PHL, DCA, LGA for more additonal and new flying.


Does YX own all 88 of the E175's? I was under the impression that AA owns them and leases them out.


A couple of things to remember here...

*AA/YX launched the introduction of the E175 to the NEW American Eagle, but YX already had a long standing reputation with US Airways flying the E70/E175 under US Airways Express. The E70/E75 (now solely E75 fleet) that YX flies for AA is owned by YX leased to AA. These 175's are not part of the 175 order AMR placed after the YX/AA agreement, those birds are owned by AA and leased to Compass and Envoy for example.
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klwright69
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:00 pm

Speaking of Cuba, I was not able to find UA's new IAH-HAV flight. When does it start? EWR-HAV is active. What about the Sat, only HAV flight from IAH?

It is not strange that UA is increasing CCS. There probably isn't a lot of competition from the USA, and it's a narrowbody flight.

Could someone summarize the cuts that have impacted Cuba?
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:21 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
I tend to agree to an extent. Hard to see how 3M thinks it can make money flying 19-seat planes at bare bone fares from FLL to Cuba against B6 mainline (or AA mainline from MIA), which have significantly lower CASM. I also still don't understand AS on LAX-HAV...there are very few nonstop flights from LA to the Caribbean, so it's hard for me to see how a market which has significant travel restrictions will be successful. Will a LAX-HAV nonstop command a significant enough premium over a LAX-ATL/IAH/FLL/MIA/MCO-HAV one-stop to make this worthwhile for AS? I guess we'll find out eventually.

That said, Cuba is unique. HAV has limited slots for US carriers and it was essentially a "once in a lifetime" grab, so it is somewhat justifiable that an airline would lose money in the short-medium term in the hope (projection?) that it will eventually pay off. I would be interested to see if - and who - eventually starts admitting defeat at HAV. No doubt the increasingly likely risk of an erratic Trump administration could have a serious effect on this market.
lavalampluva wrote:
SY has yet to put out a schedule let alone a start date. I wouldn't be surprised if the scrapped the Cuba project.


klwright69 wrote:
Speaking of Cuba, I was not able to find UA's new IAH-HAV flight. When does it start? EWR-HAV is active. What about the Sat, only HAV flight from IAH?

It is not strange that UA is increasing CCS. There probably isn't a lot of competition from the USA, and it's a narrowbody flight.

Could someone summarize the cuts that have impacted Cuba?
DFW789ER wrote:
globalcabotage wrote:
The rush to Cuba from US carriers shows why the industry turns billionaires into millionaires. Jump on the bandwagon without any thought. This is one of many reasons I will never buy stock in an airline. The CEOs seem to be all A-net alum with the "GRB-BKK will print money mentality."


Everyone was salivating at the chance to get into Cuba. When it all shakes out I would expect most of the secondary destinations are dropped, or made less than daily. I'm not sure VFR traffic will fill those planes.

grbauc wrote:
Yes and no. To get market share and grab the pie pieces they either applied or someone else would. I agree there was definitely over eagerness on part of airlines. They for sure didn't seem to do the math on how much they would have to bleed to get these routes to establish.

#1 I would think 3M would have the best shot of anybody since 30 seat planes seem like about the right size for the market, but they keep cutting capacity like a drunken ninja.
#2 You know the real stupidity from the U.S. carriers? They fought to get this much capacity authorized. Cuba wanted less and the U.S. carriers wanted more. It really should have been the opposite as Cuba should have wanted the money flowing and the U.S. carriers should have adopted their favorite practice of constricting capacity to increase fares. For some reason (the fear of being left out?), everybody just went nuts and now we have a financial disaster in the making.
#3 I think the capacity cuts will extend beyond the secondary markets. I fully expect a HAV route to be left vacant in pretty short order. There will be some carriers that just lose money sitting on a "slot", but I think somebody like AS or F9 will just bail completely.

I don't have a detailed list of cuts since the beginning and that is hard to compile because it differs from month to month and is it a cut if it was never for sale? AA's announced cuts have never appeared in OAG. They are just zeroed out in inventory. I presume that is some sort of cheat to try to hold the authorities.
peterj324 wrote:
Is Delta having some aircraft shortages? LAX-PVG/SYD are both 777-200LR and JFK-NCE/PRG are both 767 I believe. Considering the cuts are only by 1X weekly flight and only for a short period of time I am inclined to think so.

Revenue shortage, not aircraft. DL as airplanes sitting around all over the place in that time frame. They just cut because demand is weak in advance forecasts.
 
Varsity1
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:53 pm

miaskies wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
miaskies wrote:

I don't think YX is in line to have its flying pulled from AA, a couple of factors: AA just gave YX "American Shuttle" flying in November. It is currently flying 175's for both American Eagle and American Eagle. YX flies 88 E75's for AA, of which 38 will be reconfigured to the current 76 seating config from current 80 seaters; the first 9 refurbished birds are back in service with AA next month. If AA were to want cut YX flying Delta or United would JUMP at those 88 E175's; just like AA, all 3 legacy love that airplane.

That said ORD and DFW will be exclusive MQ 175 bases. So the YX birds that were based in ORD have now been sent to MIA, PHL, DCA, LGA for more additonal and new flying.


Does YX own all 88 of the E175's? I was under the impression that AA owns them and leases them out.


A couple of things to remember here...

*AA/YX launched the introduction of the E175 to the NEW American Eagle, but YX already had a long standing reputation with US Airways flying the E70/E175 under US Airways Express. The E70/E75 (now solely E75 fleet) that YX flies for AA is owned by YX leased to AA. These 175's are not part of the 175 order AMR placed after the YX/AA agreement, those birds are owned by AA and leased to Compass and Envoy for example.


What a confusing mess. With the labor shortages in the regionals I wonder who's flying will be lost to the wholly owned. Compass is probably a top candidate.
 
LordMontenegro
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:19 pm

phxtravelboy wrote:
And STILL no MIA-MKE on AA. SMH. That is a perfect E175 market yet they REFUSE to add it.


ORD and PHL are still only 50 seat RJs.


I believe MKE is a maintenance base for Air Wisconsin, so that could help explain why they have so many 50-seat RJ's to/from there to PHL at least.
 
brooklynchris13
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:24 pm

commavia wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Hopefully it is also a(nother) sign that the YX staffing issues that had limited E-jet availability are resolved.


" I think one of AA's immediate and primary objectives should be getting DCA and LGA to entirely or near-entirely 2-class RJs - and it's quite obvious from the schedules, even as published today, that AA is moving in that direction."


Although a very good goal, and one I would enthusiastically support, I think there is a major limiting factor that applies for any serious effort to reduce CRJ and ERJ145 flying, that being the facilities at PHL, DCA, and LGA. PHL's terminal F is not designed to support a significant presence of larger aircraft, especially in the areas used for DH8 ops. (No Jetbridges.. and the hold areas for gates with Jetbridges are very small). With larger RJs handled out of the other terminals, I do not know if they have the gate capacity to move a large amount of their operations over there.

Space limitations at LGA will likely be in place soon due to the facility upgrades that will only make things more congested for the time being, at least in terms of terminal space, if not actual gates. As for DCA, with the CRJs and DH8s being handled out of 35X, there are again capacity restraints on actual gates and I don't think busing 76 passengers out to a remote stand is pretty effective. The thought of even two or three large RJs trying to board out of that gate at the same time is causing me palpations even as I type this. On that note. I don't think they even do CR7s off the remote stand but I could be wrong, someone please correct me if they do.

In my opinion, AA has a situation where, at least in the short term (until LGA and DCA expansion projects are complete), there are competing factors at play regarding AA's use of Regional Jets. Now, one additional solution may be to route more connecting passengers via CLT and ORD reducing traffic at LGA and LGA/PHL, but I don't know how receptive passengers will be to backtrack when connecting for northeast flights. It is a very interesting situation and I look forward to seeing how it will play out in the next few years.
"Be the change you want to see in the world" (mg)
 
incitatus
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:38 pm

enilria wrote:

*AA MIA-PIT APR 2>4 MAY 2>4 JUN 2>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4


I am confused about this. When I look at what is out there selling for Summer, I see MIA-PIT 3 x day with 4 x on Saturdays only. Wouldn't your report then show something like 3.2, and not 4?
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:49 pm

brooklynchris13 wrote:
As for DCA, with the CRJs and DH8s being handled out of 35X, there are again capacity restraints on actual gates and I don't think busing 76 passengers out to a remote stand is pretty effective. The thought of even two or three large RJs trying to board out of that gate at the same time is causing me palpations even as I type this. On that note. I don't think they even do CR7s off the remote stand but I could be wrong, someone please correct me if they do.


US at times boarded a limited number of E-jets from 35X. Not a nice situation.
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miaskies
Posts: 1268
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:50 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
As for DCA, with the CRJs and DH8s being handled out of 35X, there are again capacity restraints on actual gates and I don't think busing 76 passengers out to a remote stand is pretty effective. The thought of even two or three large RJs trying to board out of that gate at the same time is causing me palpations even as I type this. On that note. I don't think they even do CR7s off the remote stand but I could be wrong, someone please correct me if they do.


US at times boarded a limited number of E-jets from 35X. Not a nice situation.


As a flight attendant who works E75 for American Eagle/Shutte, I can tell you the 35X gates in DCA just like the D60 gates at MIA were not built for anything larger than a CRJ-700 (not even a 900) our planes are just too big and too tall.
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ty97
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:08 pm

incitatus wrote:
enilria wrote:

*AA MIA-PIT APR 2>4 MAY 2>4 JUN 2>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4


I am confused about this. When I look at what is out there selling for Summer, I see MIA-PIT 3 x day with 4 x on Saturdays only. Wouldn't your report then show something like 3.2, and not 4?


I believe anything above 3 shows in whole numbers only in OAG, for whatever reason (perhaps even anything above 2 does?)
 
MAH4546
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:50 am

GSP psgr wrote:
commavia wrote:
phxtravelboy wrote:
Come on AA show MKE some love already!


MKE is one of the markets that seems like an obvious candidate for transition to entirely or near-entirely mainline and 2-class RJs over the next few years as more 2-class RJs are delivered. Similar to other fairly large midwest markets like IND, CVG, PIT, CLE, CMH, SDF, GRR, etc. - I could easily see MKE going that direction. Given how short the stage length is, MKE-ORD is likely to always be just 50-seat, but for the longer routes like PHL and CLT, CR7/CR9 seems obvious. MKE, LGA, MIA ... maybe.

AA is inducting a significant number of new 2-class RJs each month, and this is setting off a chain reaction of schedule/route adjustments all across the network as these aircraft are placed across AA's hubs and steadily replace 44/50-seat RJs.


The other two markets I'm surprised to not see AA trying with E75s from MIA are BUF and PVD, which seem like they'd fit well.


Also ROC, SYR, ALB, YOW and YQB.

MIA finally got HPN this year. Maybe others will come along.
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OB1504
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Fri Dec 23, 2016 6:23 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
3x to EWR seems a little light, no?


Perhaps this is related to Spirit now competing on South Florida–Newark. American and United have been aggressively lowering their fares to counter Spirit and it's possible that American is reducing frequency to limit their exposure.

usflyer msp wrote:
Do the E75's use a real gate in MIA or are they at D60? If it is D60, the MIA-MSP flights are now a no go for me. If refuse to subject myself to the hot mess called MIA D60 during a bank. To many flights boarding at one time leads to lots of confused passengers with limited english proficiency.


In addition to ground-load gates D60B-D60R and remote stands D60S-D60X, American Eagle flights also use jetbridge-equipped gates D53 and D55. Those gates appear to be used almost exclusively by E175 flights.

Varsity1 wrote:
Any word on MQ gaining back an MIA base? I was under the impression that YX is a candidate to have it's flying pulled. The BK stunt didn't impress AA.


Considering that American continues to increase Republic E175 flying, it would appear that this is no longer the case.
 
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 12/23/2016: AA MIA Reshuffle, MIA-SLC Gone;VS Out of ORD, 3M Big Cuba Cuts

Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:44 pm

phxtravelboy wrote:
And STILL no MIA-MKE on AA. SMH. That is a perfect E175 market yet they REFUSE to add it.

AA's service to MKE is just pathetic; I sometimes wonder why they even bother flying there as it's treated like an after thought.

AA has the large operation at DCA flying to all sorts of cities, yet no MKE. I think I read that AA flies nonstop to 47 of the top 50 O/D cities from DCA. Of course MKE is 1 of the 3.

ORD and PHL are still only 50 seat RJs.

CLT is only RJs from MKE.

DFW still gets the old, tired MD80s on 3 of the 4 flights.

Come on AA show MKE some love already!



Until this year AA (including US) has had steady passenger growth, up 26% from 2011 to 2015. But this year there has been some pullback even as the airport (as a whole) is up.

AA (including US pre-merger) MKE traffic
2011 703,377
2012 724,043 (2.9% increase YOY)
2013 791,407 (9.2% increase YOY)
2014 828,666 (7.4% increase YOY)
2015 886,315 (7.0% increase YOY)

For 2016 they are down 4.0%, putting them on track for about 850k for full-year 2016. Not sure how much Frontier’s summer MKE-DFW and MKE-PHL hurt them. Sometimes low-fare competition grows the pie for everyone (at significantly lower yields) but I think AA didn’t price match aggressively nor expand capacity in response to Frontier. The other thing which jumps out – United has finally brought mainline back to MKE and their numbers have been growing after a few years of sagging. Perhaps UA growth has been at AA expense.

The Air Wisconsin and Skywest bases at MKE keep a lot of CRJ’s to PHL, CLT and ORD, unfortunately. But that doesn’t mean we couldn’t have an E75 to Miami. It’s pretty clear to me MKE-MIA leaks heavily to ORD, especially more so now that FLL doesn’t run on Southwest in the offseason anymore. It does get old waiting, however.

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