I tend to agree to an extent. Hard to see how 3M thinks it can make money flying 19-seat planes at bare bone fares from FLL to Cuba against B6 mainline (or AA mainline from MIA), which have significantly lower CASM. I also still don't understand AS on LAX-HAV...there are very few nonstop flights from LA to the Caribbean, so it's hard for me to see how a market which has significant travel restrictions will be successful. Will a LAX-HAV nonstop command a significant enough premium over a LAX-ATL/IAH/FLL/MIA/MCO-HAV one-stop to make this worthwhile for AS? I guess we'll find out eventually.
That said, Cuba is unique. HAV has limited slots for US carriers and it was essentially a "once in a lifetime" grab, so it is somewhat justifiable that an airline would lose money in the short-medium term in the hope (projection?) that it will eventually pay off. I would be interested to see if - and who - eventually starts admitting defeat at HAV. No doubt the increasingly likely risk of an erratic Trump administration could have a serious effect on this market.
SY has yet to put out a schedule let alone a start date. I wouldn't be surprised if the scrapped the Cuba project.
Speaking of Cuba, I was not able to find UA's new IAH-HAV flight. When does it start? EWR-HAV is active. What about the Sat, only HAV flight from IAH?
It is not strange that UA is increasing CCS. There probably isn't a lot of competition from the USA, and it's a narrowbody flight.
Could someone summarize the cuts that have impacted Cuba?
The rush to Cuba from US carriers shows why the industry turns billionaires into millionaires. Jump on the bandwagon without any thought. This is one of many reasons I will never buy stock in an airline. The CEOs seem to be all A-net alum with the "GRB-BKK will print money mentality."
Everyone was salivating at the chance to get into Cuba. When it all shakes out I would expect most of the secondary destinations are dropped, or made less than daily. I'm not sure VFR traffic will fill those planes.
Yes and no. To get market share and grab the pie pieces they either applied or someone else would. I agree there was definitely over eagerness on part of airlines. They for sure didn't seem to do the math on how much they would have to bleed to get these routes to establish.
#1 I would think 3M would have the best shot of anybody since 30 seat planes seem like about the right size for the market, but they keep cutting capacity like a drunken ninja.
#2 You know the real stupidity from the U.S. carriers? They fought to get this much capacity authorized. Cuba wanted less and the U.S. carriers wanted more. It really should have been the opposite as Cuba should have wanted the money flowing and the U.S. carriers should have adopted their favorite practice of constricting capacity to increase fares. For some reason (the fear of being left out?), everybody just went nuts and now we have a financial disaster in the making.
#3 I think the capacity cuts will extend beyond the secondary markets. I fully expect a HAV route to be left vacant in pretty short order. There will be some carriers that just lose money sitting on a "slot", but I think somebody like AS or F9 will just bail completely.
I don't have a detailed list of cuts since the beginning and that is hard to compile because it differs from month to month and is it a cut if it was never for sale? AA's announced cuts have never appeared in OAG. They are just zeroed out in inventory. I presume that is some sort of cheat to try to hold the authorities.
Is Delta having some aircraft shortages? LAX-PVG/SYD are both 777-200LR and JFK-NCE/PRG are both 767 I believe. Considering the cuts are only by 1X weekly flight and only for a short period of time I am inclined to think so.
Revenue shortage, not aircraft. DL as airplanes sitting around all over the place in that time frame. They just cut because demand is weak in advance forecasts.