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AtlasRise
Topic Author
Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2016 5:45 pm

Pacific hub

Sat Dec 24, 2016 4:01 pm

Pardon me if this topic has been mentioned before.
A quick search in US DOT data shows that the number of pax traveling between the US and Australasia has increased over 33% in the last decade. Keep in mind, this does not even capture traffic from Canada. With all of this growth and more to come, are nonstops such as SYDDFW, MELSFO, BNELAX the most efficient way? Could there be an opportunity a carrier such as FJ to grow their fleet and open up a mega hub in NAN to efficiently feed traffic from North America to MEL/SYD/BNE/PER/ADL/CNS/OOL/AKL/CHC and perhaps other smaller markets such as CBR/ZQN/WLG? It could also create competitive opportunities for travelers going to/from Southeast Asia (e.g. SIN and KUL). In addition, it could also be an option for trafffic to/from East Asia as well.

Of course, when placing a hub it is important to have a large base O&D demand and not depend only on connecting traffic since the yields are generally lower. Would there be other opportunities with this concept of a Pacific connecting hub such as APW or HNL? Or has the lack of a large O&D base been the reason a Pacific connecting hub never materialised?

If this concept is worth looking at, the other hurdle is the cost to expand NAN or APW to have enough space and infrastructure to become a connecting hub. HNL could probably already handle it.
 
MaxTrimm
Posts: 341
Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2015 2:43 pm

Re: Pacific hub

Sat Dec 24, 2016 4:36 pm

HNL already fits this criteria. Multiple nonstops to a slew of destinations in North America, as well as a couple destinations in Australia/NZ, a few in the Pacific Islands, and a whole bunch in Asia, especially Japan. I don't see the need for a new hub.
 
AtlasRise
Topic Author
Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2016 5:45 pm

Re: Pacific hub

Sat Dec 24, 2016 5:09 pm

You are correct in that HNL serves N.A. well and I agree that there is no "need" for a pacific hub. However, HNL does not serve smaller markets such as CBR & ZQN and my question was is it worth looking at. Not just to simply start a CBRHNL nonstop, but to build HNL (or APW or NAN) into a larger connecting hub. I don't think would ever happen due to the lack of O&D base and yields are too low. Just wondering if all the P2P routes are the most efficient way to go.
 
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PatrickZ80
Posts: 4496
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:33 am

Re: Pacific hub

Sat Dec 24, 2016 5:11 pm

I think Fiji is too close to Australia and too far from America to be a good hub. A good hub should be more halfway, with a more or less equal distance each way. Then Hawaii comes closest, and it has the O/D traffic too. Kiribati might be another option, but it's a rather small airport with a reasonably short runway. Not long enough for heavies to America or Australia.
 
westgate
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:17 pm

Re: Pacific hub

Sat Dec 24, 2016 5:47 pm

HNL, or any other Pacific hub for that matter, might not really work that well for North American to Australasia traffic as although there are a few direct flights from the East Coast of the US/Canada to HNL, there aren't nearly as many as to LAX or SFO. So you either have a situation as current, where pax flying from LAX, SFO, DFW and YVR have non-stop flights to Oz/NZ and everyone else has a single connection, or what you're proposing where pax from LAX and SFO have to connect in HNL, and a lot of other pax would have to make a double connect i.e. PHL-LAX-HNL-SYD. The whole point of the DFW service is so almost everyone in the US can get to Oz with only a single connection, even from some of the very small east cost markets.

Air Tahiti Nui did in fact have non-stop flights from Tahiti to New York a few years back where they were pushing connections onto Australia, so they were attempting a bit of a South Pacific mini-hub, but it didn't work too well and JFK was dropped soon after.
 
ahj2000
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Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2014 5:34 pm

Sun Dec 25, 2016 1:12 am

I'd say Honolulu is already thus. Make a google search for SYD/BNE/AKL to the US and Hawaiian will show up. However, I'm not sure abvout the smaller flights (they have VA for domestic cnnx) as they are still a good bit away from Oz o NZ. Perhaps in the far future, but besides maybe adding a few more a week to ther current destinations, HA doesn't have much to work off except ADL and MEL (which I'd say is important)
-Andrés Juánez
 
zkncj
Posts: 4149
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Pacific hub

Sun Dec 25, 2016 1:46 am

NZ has pretty much already established an Pacific Hub in AKL, with onwards connections to Australia.

YVR,SFO,LAX,IAH,HNL-AKL
AKL-CNS,MCY,BNE,OOL,SYD,MEL,ADL,PER
Also to the Pacific Islands AKL-NOU,NAN,TBU,APW,RAR,PPT,VLI

NZ provides the most frequent connections within the Pacific, with most major Islands getting 1-2 daily services to AKL with some being 777 services.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2605
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Pacific hub

Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:50 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ has pretty much already established an Pacific Hub in AKL, with onwards connections to Australia.

YVR,SFO,LAX,IAH,HNL-AKL
AKL-CNS,MCY,BNE,OOL,SYD,MEL,ADL,PER
Also to the Pacific Islands AKL-NOU,NAN,TBU,APW,RAR,PPT,VLI

NZ provides the most frequent connections within the Pacific, with most major Islands getting 1-2 daily services to AKL with some being 777 services.


I agree AKL and NZ have the best hub possible. How do their hub banks line up? Does PER and ADL connect to IAH,SFO,YVR and EZE? Be good to see small feed added from AU- NTL, CBR, ADL daily. ORD could be another good route from them, I'm no expert but I feel they are at a brink- grow to a true hub, or risk being uncompetitive with more non-stops being added into the AU market. I think for NZ and AKL to remain relevant as a hub NZ need to increase frequency daily 789s to YVR, SFO and build IAH,EZE to daily. Shouldn't be too hard with their new 789 config

AKL is also well placed for Asia to South American. NZ just struggle with good slits for effective connections.

HNL isn't attractive as clearing bags and customs at the first point is an epic drainer! Why not simply go on-stop? At least in on direction!
 
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c933103
Posts: 5311
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Pacific hub

Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:44 am

AtlasRise wrote:
You are correct in that HNL serves N.A. well and I agree that there is no "need" for a pacific hub. However, HNL does not serve smaller markets such as CBR & ZQN and my question was is it worth looking at. Not just to simply start a CBRHNL nonstop, but to build HNL (or APW or NAN) into a larger connecting hub. I don't think would ever happen due to the lack of O&D base and yields are too low. Just wondering if all the P2P routes are the most efficient way to go.

HNL is already on pacific and serve as a hub for islands ranging fron Guam to Papeete.
For AU/NZ, maybe SYD/AKL are already good enough?

smi0006 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ has pretty much already established an Pacific Hub in AKL, with onwards connections to Australia.

YVR,SFO,LAX,IAH,HNL-AKL
AKL-CNS,MCY,BNE,OOL,SYD,MEL,ADL,PER
Also to the Pacific Islands AKL-NOU,NAN,TBU,APW,RAR,PPT,VLI

NZ provides the most frequent connections within the Pacific, with most major Islands getting 1-2 daily services to AKL with some being 777 services.


I agree AKL and NZ have the best hub possible. How do their hub banks line up? Does PER and ADL connect to IAH,SFO,YVR and EZE? Be good to see small feed added from AU- NTL, CBR, ADL daily. ORD could be another good route from them, I'm no expert but I feel they are at a brink- grow to a true hub, or risk being uncompetitive with more non-stops being added into the AU market. I think for NZ and AKL to remain relevant as a hub NZ need to increase frequency daily 789s to YVR, SFO and build IAH,EZE to daily. Shouldn't be too hard with their new 789 config

AKL is also well placed for Asia to South American. NZ just struggle with good slits for effective connections.

HNL isn't attractive as clearing bags and customs at the first point is an epic drainer! Why not simply go on-stop? At least in on direction!

For Asia - South America market, let say from Singapore to EZE, connecting via AKL is only 700km, 3% longer than via AUH in term of total GC diatance, and to other Asian cities like Bangkok or other South American cities like GIG/GRU then middle east would offer shorter total gc distance. South Africa seems to be better for connection between South Asia and South America?
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tayser
Posts: 436
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:49 pm

Re: Pacific hub

Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:59 pm

Yeah/nah/yeah.

With MEL getting more and more direct/non-stop connections (most recent to be announced was SCL-MEL with Latam, the high likelihood that there will be a QF MEL-DFW in the next few years and the outside chance there'll be a MEL-YVR at some point in the next 5-10 years), the point of 'hubbing' flights at some point in the Pacific takes a hit.

Sure, there are many more worthy ports in Australia, but with SYD holding its own - like it always has - and increasingly MEL moving into the same position, there goes half your O&D market on direct/non-stop flights.

NZ advertise its connections through Auckland like mad in local Melbourne media (I assume it's the same in other AU cities) but even they'll be stretching things when new non-stops start flying to MEL. Hawaiian don't have a HNL-MEL as yet.

A dedicated hub at some dot in the Pacific ocean is an interesting idea, but with 787s and 350s becoming the norm (and the right carriers buying them), I think the idea's a little past its use by date IMO
 
qf002
Posts: 3692
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:14 am

Re: Pacific hub

Tue Dec 27, 2016 3:47 pm

The single biggest issue is the distances involved. You would be forced to use widebodies which are all far too big for most of the markets that you would need to reach to create a network large enough to make the whole operation viable.

Really the most logical location for such a hub would be within narrowbody range of the entire US/Canada with traffic coming in from Australia/NZ on very large aircraft like A380s...like um...LAX or SFO maybe?
 
zkncj
Posts: 4149
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Pacific hub

Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:32 pm

smi0006 wrote:
I agree AKL and NZ have the best hub possible. How do their hub banks line up? Does PER and ADL connect to IAH,SFO,YVR and EZE? Be good to see small feed added from AU- NTL, CBR, ADL daily. ORD could be another good route from them, I'm no expert but I feel they are at a brink- grow to a true hub, or risk being uncompetitive with more non-stops being added into the AU market. I think for NZ and AKL to remain relevant as a hub NZ need to increase frequency daily 789s to YVR, SFO and build IAH,EZE to daily. Shouldn't be too hard with their new 789 config


All of NZ's North American flights arrive into AKL between 0500-0730, then depart again from 1830-2000. Which enables seamless connections from most Australian Airport.

PER-AKL only connects 3x weekly, but AKL-PER works Daily.

AKL-ADL is currently operating an Daily Service.

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