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Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:11 pm

Lots of rumors circulating about trouble at EK. Is the EK (and ME3) bubble about to burst and could this have dire consequences for Boeing and Airbus?
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Polot
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:14 pm

It will have consequences, but I think dire is a little strong.
 
Danny
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:24 pm

Not sure what is the source of those rumors. The 2015 financials were the best ever.

Good profit margins, excellent ROA, positive cashflows etc.Most of airlines could only wish to have such results.

http://www.theemiratesgroup.com/english ... eport.aspx
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:33 pm

Danny wrote:
Not sure what is the source of those rumors. The 2015 financials were the best ever.

Good profit margins, excellent ROA, positive cashflows etc.Most of airlines could only wish to have such results.

http://www.theemiratesgroup.com/english ... eport.aspx


Indeed, were is this rumor based on?

If this turns out to be true, then the immediately consequence would be the decision to shut down the A380 line and Boeing will rethink the B779, too much tailor made for EK. But don't think it has any merritt to it.
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DoctorVenkman
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:37 pm

Danny wrote:
Not sure what is the source of those rumors. The 2015 financials were the best ever.

Good profit margins, excellent ROA, positive cashflows etc.Most of airlines could only wish to have such results.

http://www.theemiratesgroup.com/english ... eport.aspx


Past results do not guarantee future results; many banks had record profits in 2006-2007 before the financial crash in 2008. Of course, aviation is a different industry than banking, but financial problems tend to snowball and can be hidden by clever accounting or underlying structural weakness.

With all that being said I have no insight into EK's financial health, they could be extremely strong for all I know. But I wouldn't make the mistake of assuming they will do well in the future because they did well in the past.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:53 pm

Danny wrote:
Not sure what is the source of those rumors. The 2015 financials were the best ever.

Good profit margins, excellent ROA, positive cashflows etc.Most of airlines could only wish to have such results.

http://www.theemiratesgroup.com/english ... eport.aspx


EK's first half results for this year reported a 75% fall in net profit

http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/e ... -1.1926774
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:55 pm

Bubble about to burst? More like a slow leak. While EK has extended themselves way too much, they should be able to stabilize in 2017 with the rise in oil prices. However, if their management is smart, and I think they are, they will consider long term plans and slow expansion considerably. EK clearly has way too much capacity. Look no further then their routes to DOH. They have 9 flights daily with a combination of A380 and 777, for a one hour flight! That is insane. I can't even begin to imagine the yields on those flights, but they do them most likely to keep their planes from sitting around all day at DXB waiting to fly the trans-con routes..

I think EK management sees the writing on the wall and that is why they have deferred the A380 orders. I think they same will happen with the 777X. EK has painted itself into a corner with having to fill so many seats on a daily basis. They are desperately trying to fill them by any means possible (lots of sales lately) and find new ways to utilize all these big birds. They are running out of options and destinations. This in addition to the fact that they are no longer the flavor of the month. They still have their loyal flyers, but their competitors have been able to siphon some of them away.

Their India and Africa routes, which were once their bread and butter, have come under attack from their ME3 counterparts as well as from AI, TK, and ET. EY is abundantly aware of what is coming down the road, as they have slowed expansion. Hopefully EK follows suit.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:57 pm

I think EK is souring on the A380CEO. It is not providing the CASM/CASK advantage it once did. There are also a limited number of markets where it works. I think it's also pretty clear they are worried about DY. I expect them to slow growth which they need to do anyway due to terminal constraints and probably start to look to smaller aircraft and then even smaller aircraft. If they had the facilities (they don't) I think they'd have a 70 seater feed operation soon.
 
anshabhi
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:05 pm

I personally don't think that well happen. While competition has increased, they still have a good edge over others. EK has a firm grip over India. Maybe they are only correctly reporting their numbers now and subsidies have reduced from their govts.

If it happens, A380 will die, and for Boeing it will only mean some paperwork and negotiations to transfer the orders to some other airline, as demand will only increase independent of how an airline performs.
Last edited by anshabhi on Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
1900Driver
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:06 pm

Not sure about EK, but what about QR? Are their pockets still deep enough?
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:26 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
They have 9 flights daily with a combination of A380 and 777, for a one hour flight! That is insane.


It's far from insane if they only have A380s and 777s in their fleet!
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:32 pm

enilria wrote:
I think EK is souring on the A380CEO. It is not providing the CASM/CASK advantage it once did. There are also a limited number of markets where it works. I think it's also pretty clear they are worried about DY. I expect them to slow growth which they need to do anyway due to terminal constraints and probably start to look to smaller aircraft and then even smaller aircraft. If they had the facilities (they don't) I think they'd have a 70 seater feed operation soon.


Just curious, to where? I agree with smaller planes, yes. But the 70 seat market is much more of a regional feed type in the EU, N. America ,etc where there are a lot of close cities. The region around Dubai is not built that way. Also, would you want to add a load of regionals into DXB, which is little constraint and congested as is?
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dubaiamman243
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:39 pm

I think EK now is restructuring and adapting to the environment around them. Good Luck to them.
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gzm
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:49 pm

As Pam Ann says "they use A380s like taxis".Let's see for how long this can go on. Someday it will be over, like the Thousand Nights...
 
OMAAbound
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:53 pm

The problem with Emirates, not so much with QR/EY, is they've reached a saturation point in the market, they taken on so many new a/c in the last 3 years that now they are storing/hiding 777/380's.

The management there aren't as clever as what some may think, they've made a mess of the situation and from an insiders point of view the look out currently is bleak.

They need to stablelize their fleet better, a year or two with minimum deliveries and replacing aircraft is what's needed. Things there can improve, their latest profits are out and yes, showing a profit is still a win, but they're making losses elsewhere with the company and fleet.

Emirates isn't what it used to be, and its lost its edge in the employment gains it once had!

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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:54 pm

1900Driver wrote:
Not sure about EK, but what about QR? Are their pockets still deep enough?

The drop in energy prices has impacted QR and EY. EK's profits are down in the first half.

To all:
EK adapts quickly. This means the competition must adapt. The first consequence is the further slowing of the A380 line. The next consequence is holding off on the,786/A350 order.

But if EK has issues, EY and QR, with less profit, will have to adapt quickly. As will AI, 9W, the Chinese airlines, and to a lesser extent Ethiopian.

The bubble burst in 2008 and EK adapted. We're seeing a slowdown in China and the impacts of prolonged normal energy prices in a region that thrived on high energy prices.

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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:
EK adapts quickly.


The bubble burst in 2008 and EK adapted.


:checkmark:

Spot on. Many legacy carriers went bankrupt because they didn't adapt fast enough (or didn't adapt at all). Adapt quickly and you'll survive.
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:12 pm

I think the word 'speulation' would be better than 'rumor'.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:37 pm

Two(of many) things it didn't adopt is picking right fleet and keeping operating costs low. As long as owners showing financial sources management went on a VLA buying binge, now anyone with a A320/B737 can nibble their tails. It is easy to fill 180 seats at 5K/hr operating cost than 615 seats at 25K/hr operating cost.

BTW, I don't buy for a second VLAs are mandatory because DXB is slot restricted. Plane size should be based on traffic demand not on condition at one airport.

Too many VLAs on order
No Small WBs or NBs on order
90B ASKMs wasted
At least 25,000(of 105,000) are redundant workforce, but has shortage of pilots and FAs.
Cutting passenger amenities
Cutting employee benefits

Sixth freedom carriers don't have luxury of the usual excuse ie., we are doing what others did.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:38 pm

rlwynn wrote:
I think the word 'speulation' would be better than 'rumor'.

I live in that part of the English-speaking community where "rumor" is not a recognised word. But then to discover here "speulation" really got me stumped. Drew a blank on Google. Perchance "speculation"? It's always that silly typo that spoils a good piece of intended sarcasm or a joke!

IMHO, which is not all that well-informed at the best of times, is that before EK's bubble has any serious problems, many other airline bubbles will have already burst/fizzed out/ or whatever, coincidentally providing EK with some additional loads from around its unique network

I think that STC and his team run a very mean operation, and their bubble is less threatened than many others!
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:41 pm

Think people are in some way avoiding Middle Eastern airspace. The unrest in Turkey, IS everywhere, planes brought down by bombs 'from the inside'. That's not helping the likes of EK and QR I assume.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
They have 9 flights daily with a combination of A380 and 777, for a one hour flight! That is insane.


It's far from insane if they only have A380s and 777s in their fleet!


IMO, the 380 is a good niche aircraft, especially for slot controlled airports like LHR, LGW. That's why all their London flights are on the Whalebus. Some other cities merit this big of an aircraft, but some don't fit. DFW is a good example. There are probably others. EK has deferred deliveries on some frames. The won't get Airbus to build a CEO version since they likely will be the only buyer. It won't die as quickly as the 748, but quads will continue to become an endangered species.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:52 pm

The central banking bubble will explode far earlier than the ME3 bubble; and rupture the latter in its wake. No need to consider the ME3 bubble even for a minute.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:59 pm

My suggestion to EK: Take a controlling stake in some Indian carrier like SpiceJet or GoAir (IndiGo isn't interested in this). Both of them are ready to fly international. Emirates can get as many Indian passengers as it wants and put their growing fleet of B77Ws on use.

The problem: Both Spicejet and GoAir are low cost carriers, and if Emirates acquires them it would be complete change in their business model.

Till now, only about 100 million passengers fly annually while 8 billion people travel by Indian Railways annually, this highlights the tremendous potential in India.
Last edited by anshabhi on Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:17 pm

If EK gets overtaken/affected by rivals, then it probably doesn't affect Airbus and Boeing too much because they will sell more aircraft to them instead. The Airbus A380 is highly dependant on Emirates, but perhaps they won't order any more of those anyway unless they go ahead with the NEO and that probably takes more than just EK to make the risk of launching that programme worthwhile.

As an anecdote, I flew Istanbul-Kuala Lumpur the other day with Royal Jordanian. We had an Embraer 175/787 and Amman airport was brand new, super comfortable and modern. The food was good an you can even "bid" to upgrade to business class. Amman has an airport hotel in the transit area, so an overnight connection could actually be an opportunity to get some rest. Their price was about 230GBP compared to EK's 340. On the way back the cheapest options are Air Astana and Etihad - both seem to get very good reviews. Egyptair was also very good when I flew with them. So I think there are plenty of competitors - it's not just the ME3 they have to worry about. Many smaller airlines are equally capable of taking their business.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:25 pm

While everyone is assuming troubles at EK spell the end of the A380 and 777X, IMO it more likely means EK would not place their "mid-size" order that they currently are evaluating the A350 and 787 for. They already have a large fleet of A380s and 777s that they can leverage with more of the same. Adding a new type incurs a slew of new costs beyond just CAPEX.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:33 pm

Stitch wrote:
While everyone is assuming troubles at EK spell the end of the A380 and 777X, IMO it more likely means EK would not place their "mid-size" order that they currently are evaluating the A350 and 787 for. They already have a large fleet of A380s and 777s that they can leverage with more of the same. Adding a new type incurs a slew of new costs beyond just CAPEX.


One interpretation of this is that EK is in between a rock and a hard place. They have a huge A380 fleet already and a dozen or so more frames coming over the next three years as well as 777s whose contracts were written a long time ago and will be hard to change, therefore they have to by-pass acquiring "right sized" regional aircraft and "abuse" long haul wide bodies if they want to participate in the growing regional market.

It'll be interesting to see how this all works out. It'll probably be STC's successor who gets to sort it all out.
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:34 pm

I guess the EK executives started to feel pressure from the owners. And that pressure may have triggered the adoption of auxiliary income strategies few months ago. They are trying to get every last penny they could get out of their customer's pocket. For example, I came across a FB post from my friend whose connection is at DXB. He mentioned that EK started to check the cabin baggage weight at the boarding gate at DXB(a connecting airport) and started to collect fees for excess baggage. As a result, Several passengers were forced to throw away stuff at the connecting airport and return their duty free stuff they bought at DXB in order to avoid the excess baggage fees. This certainly tells how microscopic they have become in increasing the revenues in the recent days.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:49 pm

Danny wrote:
Not sure what is the source of those rumors. The 2015 financials were the best ever.

Good profit margins, excellent ROA, positive cashflows etc.Most of airlines could only wish to have such results.

http://www.theemiratesgroup.com/english ... eport.aspx


2016 is a very large problem.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
The thing is, the allegedly agile STC is merely shifting 6 A380 airframes from 2017 to 2019
...
Yet the outcome is EK is still adding A380s and 77Ws too in a market that already shows signs of softness, so if anything EK seems to be late to react.


That is because CM is the one cleaning up this mess within available limited options, STC has no role in this other than planning own retirement.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:05 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The thing is, the allegedly agile STC is merely shifting 6 A380 airframes from 2017 to 2019
...
Yet the outcome is EK is still adding A380s and 77Ws too in a market that already shows signs of softness, so if anything EK seems to be late to react.


That is because CM is the one cleaning up this mess within available limited options, STC has no role in this other than planning own retirement.

CM? I'm not familiar with all the EK executives.
 
DCAfan
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:15 pm

Emirates problem is there is no second-hand market for A380 's unless they are sold at distress prices. The bubble may burst as Emirates is the only airline in the world to fully embrace the A380.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:17 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
Bubble about to burst? More like a slow leak. While EK has extended themselves way too much, they should be able to stabilize in 2017 with the rise in oil prices. However, if their management is smart, and I think they are, they will consider long term plans and slow expansion considerably. EK clearly has way too much capacity. Look no further then their routes to DOH. They have 9 flights daily with a combination of A380 and 777, for a one hour flight! That is insane. I can't even begin to imagine the yields on those flights, but they do them most likely to keep their planes from sitting around all day at DXB waiting to fly the trans-con routes..

I think EK management sees the writing on the wall and that is why they have deferred the A380 orders. I think they same will happen with the 777X. EK has painted itself into a corner with having to fill so many seats on a daily basis. They are desperately trying to fill them by any means possible (lots of sales lately) and find new ways to utilize all these big birds. They are running out of options and destinations. This in addition to the fact that they are no longer the flavor of the month. They still have their loyal flyers, but their competitors have been able to siphon some of them away.

Their India and Africa routes, which were once their bread and butter, have come under attack from their ME3 counterparts as well as from AI, TK, and ET. EY is abundantly aware of what is coming down the road, as they have slowed expansion. Hopefully EK follows suit.

Pretty much all this. I think you can also forget the B787/A350 order for a while. The A380 deferral may be the canary in the coal mine.

As to the notion that other airlines will take up the new build slack if EK falters, don't count on that either. It's a monkey see, monkey do world.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:23 pm

Polot wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The thing is, the allegedly agile STC is merely shifting 6 A380 airframes from 2017 to 2019
...
Yet the outcome is EK is still adding A380s and 77Ws too in a market that already shows signs of softness, so if anything EK seems to be late to react.


That is because CM is the one cleaning up this mess within available limited options, STC has no role in this other than planning own retirement.

CM? I'm not familiar with all the EK executives.

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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:27 pm

DCAfan wrote:
Emirates problem is there is no second-hand market for A380 's unless they are sold at distress prices. The bubble may burst as Emirates is the only airline in the world to fully embrace the A380.


EK is leasing most if not all A380s on lease/buyback deals, therefore in the short term, the one who suffers is the financiers. Longer term it means the terms of such deals will be worse for EK or they might not be viable.

Polot wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The thing is, the allegedly agile STC is merely shifting 6 A380 airframes from 2017 to 2019
...
Yet the outcome is EK is still adding A380s and 77Ws too in a market that already shows signs of softness, so if anything EK seems to be late to react.


That is because CM is the one cleaning up this mess within available limited options, STC has no role in this other than planning own retirement.

CM? I'm not familiar with all the EK executives.


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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:28 pm

Thank you. Forgot he had moved to EK.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:31 pm

Polot wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The thing is, the allegedly agile STC is merely shifting 6 A380 airframes from 2017 to 2019
...
Yet the outcome is EK is still adding A380s and 77Ws too in a market that already shows signs of softness, so if anything EK seems to be late to react.


That is because CM is the one cleaning up this mess within available limited options, STC has no role in this other than planning own retirement.

CM? I'm not familiar with all the EK executives.

Christoph Mueller.

He of Malaysian and Aer Lingus fame. Probably about the best exec around for the job at the moment as he's not averse to taking big decisions that get criticised short term but prove to be right in the longer term. Everyone I talk to assumed he'd be heading for an IAG berth after the catfight that was trying to turn Malaysian round.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:41 pm

Channex757 wrote:
Polot wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

That is because CM is the one cleaning up this mess within available limited[twoid][/twoid] options, STC has no role in this other than planning own retirement.

CM? I'm not familiar with all the EK executives.

Christoph Mueller.

He of Malaysian and Aer Lingus fame. Probably about the best exec around for the job at the moment as he's not averse to taking big decisions that get criticised short term but prove to be right in the longer term. Everyone I talk to assumed he'd be heading for an IAG berth after the catfight that was trying to turn Malaysian round.

Wow. That is one 'heavy hitter'. I've always wondered why EK could always attract top talent and others, such as 9W and AI don't.

To all:
It looks like EK is in great hands for this downturn. That should worry the competition.
As I posted above, this is probably a delay in the 787/A350 order. I speculate a late DWC transfer too.


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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:48 pm

Channex757 wrote:
Polot wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

That is because CM is the one cleaning up this mess within available limited[twoid][/twoid] options, STC has no role in this other than planning own retirement.

CM? I'm not familiar with all the EK executives.

Christoph Mueller.

He of Malaysian and Aer Lingus fame. Probably about the best exec around for the job at the moment as he's not averse to taking big decisions that get criticised short term but prove to be right in the longer term. Everyone I talk to assumed he'd be heading for an IAG berth after the catfight that was trying to turn Malaysian round.

Wow. That is one 'heavy hitter'. I've always wondered why EK could always attract top talent and others, such as 9W and AI don't.

To all:
It looks like EK is in great hands for this downturn. That should worry the competition.
As I posted above, this is probably a delay in the 787/A350 order. I speculate a late DWC transfer too if cash is tight.

Has demonitization hit EK?


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DFW789ER
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Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2016 11:20 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
DCAfan wrote:
Emirates problem is there is no second-hand market for A380 's unless they are sold at distress prices. The bubble may burst as Emirates is the only airline in the world to fully embrace the A380.


EK is leasing most if not all A380s on lease/buyback deals, therefore in the short term, the one who suffers is the financiers. Longer term it means the terms of such deals will be worse for EK or they might not be viable.

Polot wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

That is because CM is the one cleaning up this mess within available limited options, STC has no role in this other than planning own retirement.

CM? I'm not familiar with all the EK executives.


Christoph Mueller -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christoph_Mueller


Hasn't EK stated they will retire some of the early builds later in the decade, or before DWC is built? 140 Whalebuses does not seem sustainable to me. DXB is a nightmare, particularly on the ~02:00 bank. All the fancy terminals are nice, but when you can barely more, it's not very pleasant.
 
DoctorVenkman
Posts: 170
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:04 pm

DCAfan wrote:
Emirates problem is there is no second-hand market for A380 's unless they are sold at distress prices. The bubble may burst as Emirates is the only airline in the world to fully embrace the A380.


This brings up an interesting hypothetical.

Let's say Emirates does indeed need to sell a bunch of their A380's at distress prices. Who would be the first airlines to pick them up? I'm sure there are quite a few airlines where the math is close but not quite there at regular prices, but if they were to get a steep discount suddenly the A380 makes more sense.

Would it be current operators padding out their fleets? Or perhaps a few new airlines trying to quickly increase capacity on the cheap?
 
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par13del
Posts: 9530
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:09 pm

Per a number of previous A380 threads, the bulk of the a/c are leased by EK, and the experts advised that the lessor would have already received payment via the lease for their investment, so whether the birds are scrapped or sold at low prices there would be no looser, so no distress prices.
Unfortunately, the true facts will not be known for another couple years
 
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Revelation
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:13 pm

DFW789ER wrote:
Hasn't EK stated they will retire some of the early builds later in the decade, or before DWC is built? 140 Whalebuses does not seem sustainable to me. DXB is a nightmare, particularly on the ~02:00 bank. All the fancy terminals are nice, but when you can barely more, it's not very pleasant.


It could be. As the current deals stand, they have said they want the last 25 no earlier than 2021 when DWC is supposed to open, but I suppose that is all up for negotiation. That leaves 115 presumably delivered by end 2019 if current schedules don't get deferred more. The first EK A380 went into service in 2008 according to Wikipedia and they typically are on 12 year leases which implies they start winding down in 2020 but perhaps they might advance that somewhat.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
DFW789ER
Posts: 399
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:16 pm

DoctorVenkman wrote:
DCAfan wrote:
Emirates problem is there is no second-hand market for A380 's unless they are sold at distress prices. The bubble may burst as Emirates is the only airline in the world to fully embrace the A380.


This brings up an interesting hypothetical.

Let's say Emirates does indeed need to sell a bunch of their A380's at distress prices. Who would be the first airlines to pick them up? I'm sure there are quite a few airlines where the math is close but not quite there at regular prices, but if they were to get a steep discount suddenly the A380 makes more sense.

Would it be current operators padding out their fleets? Or perhaps a few new airlines trying to quickly increase capacity on the cheap?


I would disagree. There's a big leap from picking up secondhand harrow bodies and a used 500 seat aircraft. I can't see anyone taking them used that didn't buy them new. Several of the original customers are either not taking undelivered frames, or are letting the order sit awaiting a decision probably involving swapping their orders for 350's.
 
33lspotter
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:37 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:19 pm

How are the load factors on the A380 routes to places like Birmingham, Copenhagen, and Manchester? I get that the 388 is a big part of their business and their identity, but at first glance I think it is insane that they are sending 388s to places like BHX, CPH, and MAN when to my knowledge – aside from VS at MAN – the biggest anyone else is sending is a 777.
 
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ER757
Posts: 3583
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:27 pm

audian wrote:
I guess the EK executives started to feel pressure from the owners. And that pressure may have triggered the adoption of auxiliary income strategies few months ago. They are trying to get every last penny they could get out of their customer's pocket. For example, I came across a FB post from my friend whose connection is at DXB. He mentioned that EK started to check the cabin baggage weight at the boarding gate at DXB(a connecting airport) and started to collect fees for excess baggage. As a result, Several passengers were forced to throw away stuff at the connecting airport and return their duty free stuff they bought at DXB in order to avoid the excess baggage fees. This certainly tells how microscopic they have become in increasing the revenues in the recent days.

EK has always been "frugal" at least in my dealings with them over the years, so the above doesn't surprise me one bit.
As to a possible downturn for them, it's conceivable. They seem to have over-bought much like someone who goes to a warehouse club store and stocks up on mega-sized packages of items they only need a few of. 150 77X's? That seems excessive even for an airline the size of EK considering they'll also have 100+ A380's on the property at the same time. Can't see where they'd deploy all these large aircraft. Don't see the A350/787 being ordered anytime soon either. I think they're choking on their last meals at the moment. However, I think they have more ability to weather a storm than the likes of their rivals EY and QR. If there's an eventual shakeout, EK will emerge less damaged than the other two.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 22245
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:27 pm

par13del wrote:
Per a number of previous A380 threads, the bulk of the a/c are leased by EK, and the experts advised that the lessor would have already received payment via the lease for their investment, so whether the birds are scrapped or sold at low prices there would be no looser, so no distress prices.
Unfortunately, the true facts will not be known for another couple years


Indeed. Unfortunately for the lessors they have eight pre-MSN25 frames that are 'hand wired' so not very attractive to the used market, so the most likely outcome is scrapping.

However in our thread about SQ's first lease return it seems the lessor is going to get the bird repainted to try to get someone to lease it again, so there must be some hope.

On the other hand, that is suggesting that there is an imperative to try to get more money out of the bird than scrapping would deliver.

Ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=606353
Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -new-users
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
David_itl
Posts: 6390
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:28 pm

At this point I jump in and say that EK is going all A380 ops to MAN in January. Loads generally in the region of 85% to 90% over the current 3 class 77W, 3 class A380 and 2 class A380. They will be carrying roughly 1 million passengers to/from MAN this year.
 
Planesmart
Posts: 2891
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 3:18 am

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:44 pm

Revelation wrote:
The first EK A380 went into service in 2008 according to Wikipedia and they typically are on 12 year leases which implies they start winding down in 2020 but perhaps they might advance that somewhat.

Unlikely any airline leasing new aircraft would terminate a lease early, unless very desperate and Chapter 11 style protection. Depending on the lease and jurisdiction, tax benefits enjoyed by the syndicate participants, leasor, leasee and manufacturer are unwound, with tax penalties retrospectively applied from the start of the lease.

Unless 'protected', premature termination of the lease triggers immediately all end of lease balloon costs, like refurbishment, accrued maintenance and inspections, engine contract obligations, etc.

Cheaper to cancel aircraft yet to be built, especially if mutual with Airbus wanting to close the line when other outstanding orders are resolved.

If in Airbus shoes, I would only be negotiating order reduction if applied pro rata. Cancel half remaining A380 orders - ditto for 777/777X.
 
User001
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:49 pm

33lspotter wrote:
How are the load factors on the A380 routes to places like Birmingham, Copenhagen, and Manchester? I get that the 388 is a big part of their business and their identity, but at first glance I think it is insane that they are sending 388s to places like BHX, CPH, and MAN when to my knowledge – aside from VS at MAN – the biggest anyone else is sending is a 777.


In terms of MAN, it's going 3 daily A380 in 2 days, it's one of Emirates biggest European routes and was one of the 'original' routes back when EK used the A300/A310.

MAN is a very big point for the Middle eastern carriers, at one time was second largest point for the MEB3 after London in Europe, so, no surprise it sees the A380.

Last check, EK load factors at MAN were about 89-92%.

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