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KTPAFlyer
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:31 pm

Tim Clark discusses this in an interview:

https://www.emirates.com/ae/english/fly ... p_mobi=yes
 
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IslandRob
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:53 pm

Stitch wrote:
While everyone is assuming troubles at EK spell the end of the A380 and 777X, IMO it more likely means EK would not place their "mid-size" order that they currently are evaluating the A350 and 787 for. They already have a large fleet of A380s and 777s that they can leverage with more of the same. Adding a new type incurs a slew of new costs beyond just CAPEX.

Wouldn't it be wise for EK to convert some of their (seemingly redundant) A380 and 77X orders to "mid-size" wide bodies, e.g., A350s and/or 787s? Seems this would be a nimble adjustment to changing market dynamics. -ir
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sofianec
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:47 pm

The demise of EK is again quite exaggerated. Some time is needed in order for the entire network to be calibrated around A380s and 777s. What doesn't help is of course Etihad and Qatar also expanding like crazy but time is on EK side. The strategy has been working and will adjust over time.
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parapente
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:53 pm

Emirates is not a 'bubble' ,never has been.Simply a very well run company.So there is absolutely nothing to 'burst'.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 5:14 pm

enzo011 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
So do you have passenger numbers to back up your theory? EK is a totally numbers driven airline, if they aren't making money on a route they'll drop it.



I agree that EK is a numbers driven airline. They need to have the numbers to make it work more than any other airline as they are leasing almost all of their aircraft and they have aggressive expansion plans. The questions I have is what will happen when their load factors and yields start dropping faster than their expansion plans. They will have a lot of capacity coming in and I wonder if that is too much for numbers of passengers they reasonably can expect to capture. They are probably at a stage where they need to consolidate but their path seems to be more towards expansion.

From what I have seen is that it does seem that Airbus is a lot more reasonable when airlines want/need to defer deliveries whereas Boeing seems to be a lot more stringent and referrals seem to happen more with Airbus. We have had quotes that seems to confirm that this is the case. So is Airbus playing the game where when new RFP's are sent out for new orders will this be a positive or a wasted exercise.

The numbers driven nature allows EK to alter plans far faster than any other airline.

EK has already differed a dozen A380s. There other relief valve is aircraft retirement. Judging by the pace of retirements, they are aiming to slow growth.

Not to mention DXB just won't allow much more growth.

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waly777
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 5:35 pm

sofianec wrote:
The demise of EK is again quite exaggerated. Some time is needed in order for the entire network to be calibrated around A380s and 777s. What doesn't help is of course Etihad and Qatar also expanding like crazy but time is on EK side. The strategy has been working and will adjust over time.


Please do some homework and avoid lumping airlines together. EY was the first to react to the economic slow down in the middle east @ the moment. They have been near capacity neutral for 2016 and cut loss making routes. Despite the belief that only EK is the numbers run airline, EY is smaller and can/has started adapting to the new reality.

EK will of course adapt and will survive just fine despite the doom and gloom predictions.
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 5:42 pm

Something is happening regionally. I already posted on EY/AUH not growing. Now Saudis is retiring all 23 77Es (much faster than new aircraft acquisition) in 2017.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1351343

So what is happening at the less savy airlines? Bwaa haa ha!

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emiratesdriver
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 5:48 pm

Shamelessly borrowed from another website, which should give many on here why EK is indeed in bubble territory.

While the 380 is not the only issue at EK right now, it certainly is one of the major ones. The entire industry has been saying for years now that there is no way anybody can operate 140 of these things profitably, and STC would seem to be the last to figure that out.

Apart from macroeconomic issues such as low oil prices depressing economies and incessant war and violence in the Middle East leading passengers to choose other routes around the globe, the main internal factor that's also dragging this airline to its knees is the astonishingly dysfunctional structure and company culture that has grown over the past decade. EK has one of most cumbersome management structures of any modern company...14 or so levels of manpower when most companies work on about seven.

In brief, here's some bullet points of why this company is in such a state;

1. Levels of management who do nothing but pass on decrees from their direct bosses.
2. Kiss up, kick down culture. No bad news is ever passed up. Only good news. Those below are held accountable for all the things that go wrong, while those that do bugger all claim the credit for all that goes right.
3. Levels of management that work three hours a day. If that.
4. "Compartmentalised" cost centres, where managers are only responsible for their own costs. A $10 saving in their department probably means $1 in their back pocket, but may indirectly cost another department $50. Because of the dysfunctional and multi-layered management structure, no-one picks up that overall inefficiency.
5. Out of control nepotism and cronyism. Rarely does the person who most deserves promotion get it.
6. Thousands of employees in positions they have no qualifications for. See point 5 above.
7. Departments that have grown out of control..more to ensure the head of department's position gets elevated to the next management level than because of a need for more manpower.
8. The operational side of the company has been stretched to and past breaking point for the past 5-10 years, but the support side (if you can call it support), has grown out of all proportion. The company is completely back office and management bloated, probably to the tune of 30%-50% more staff than is needed.
9. Inefficiencies and poor management were ignored while money was flowing in..now that the company is not performing, suddenly questions are being asked. (imagine how much money would have been made if the company was run efficiently for the past decade) Of course running with the "kick down" culture, the ones who do all the hard work will be the ones who suffer first.

This entire dysfunctional structure has been allowed to bloat itself silly by the current heads of the group. Just like they patted themselves on the back for the "marvellous performance of the management team" of the last few years, they also have to take complete responsibility for the current quagmire.

Change management means change the management. It's the only way to save this company.
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 6:07 pm

emiratesdriver wrote:
Shamelessly borrowed from another website, which should give many on here why EK is indeed in bubble territory.

While the 380 is not the only issue at EK right now, it certainly is one of the major ones. The entire industry has been saying for years now that there is no way anybody can operate 140 of these things profitably, and STC would seem to be the last to figure that out.

Apart from macroeconomic issues such as low oil prices depressing economies and incessant war and violence in the Middle East leading passengers to choose other routes around the globe, the main internal factor that's also dragging this airline to its knees is the astonishingly dysfunctional structure and company culture that has grown over the past decade. EK has one of most cumbersome management structures of any modern company...14 or so levels of manpower when most companies work on about seven.

In brief, here's some bullet points of why this company is in such a state;

1. Levels of management who do nothing but pass on decrees from their direct bosses.
2. Kiss up, kick down culture. No bad news is ever passed up. Only good news. Those below are held accountable for all the things that go wrong, while those that do bugger all claim the credit for all that goes right.
3. Levels of management that work three hours a day. If that.
4. "Compartmentalised" cost centres, where managers are only responsible for their own costs. A $10 saving in their department probably means $1 in their back pocket, but may indirectly cost another department $50. Because of the dysfunctional and multi-layered management structure, no-one picks up that overall inefficiency.
5. Out of control nepotism and cronyism. Rarely does the person who most deserves promotion get it.
6. Thousands of employees in positions they have no qualifications for. See point 5 above.
7. Departments that have grown out of control..more to ensure the head of department's position gets elevated to the next management level than because of a need for more manpower.
8. The operational side of the company has been stretched to and past breaking point for the past 5-10 years, but the support side (if you can call it support), has grown out of all proportion. The company is completely back office and management bloated, probably to the tune of 30%-50% more staff than is needed.
9. Inefficiencies and poor management were ignored while money was flowing in..now that the company is not performing, suddenly questions are being asked. (imagine how much money would have been made if the company was run efficiently for the past decade) Of course running with the "kick down" culture, the ones who do all the hard work will be the ones who suffer first.

This entire dysfunctional structure has been allowed to bloat itself silly by the current heads of the group. Just like they patted themselves on the back for the "marvellous performance of the management team" of the last few years, they also have to take complete responsibility for the current quagmire.

Change management means change the management. It's the only way to save this company.


Sounds like any other government run organization which EK most certainly is.

Go into any State Capitol, Parliament, City Hall, etc and you will find the same exact nonsense happening on a daily basis.
 
Ryanair01
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 6:08 pm

emiratesdriver wrote:
Shamelessly borrowed from another website, which should give many on here why EK is indeed in bubble territory.

While the 380 is not the only issue at EK right now, it certainly is one of the major ones. The entire industry has been saying for years now that there is no way anybody can operate 140 of these things profitably, and STC would seem to be the last to figure that out.

Apart from macroeconomic issues such as low oil prices depressing economies and incessant war and violence in the Middle East leading passengers to choose other routes around the globe, the main internal factor that's also dragging this airline to its knees is the astonishingly dysfunctional structure and company culture that has grown over the past decade. EK has one of most cumbersome management structures of any modern company...14 or so levels of manpower when most companies work on about seven.

In brief, here's some bullet points of why this company is in such a state;

1. Levels of management who do nothing but pass on decrees from their direct bosses.
2. Kiss up, kick down culture. No bad news is ever passed up. Only good news. Those below are held accountable for all the things that go wrong, while those that do bugger all claim the credit for all that goes right.
3. Levels of management that work three hours a day. If that.
4. "Compartmentalised" cost centres, where managers are only responsible for their own costs. A $10 saving in their department probably means $1 in their back pocket, but may indirectly cost another department $50. Because of the dysfunctional and multi-layered management structure, no-one picks up that overall inefficiency.
5. Out of control nepotism and cronyism. Rarely does the person who most deserves promotion get it.
6. Thousands of employees in positions they have no qualifications for. See point 5 above.
7. Departments that have grown out of control..more to ensure the head of department's position gets elevated to the next management level than because of a need for more manpower.
8. The operational side of the company has been stretched to and past breaking point for the past 5-10 years, but the support side (if you can call it support), has grown out of all proportion. The company is completely back office and management bloated, probably to the tune of 30%-50% more staff than is needed.
9. Inefficiencies and poor management were ignored while money was flowing in..now that the company is not performing, suddenly questions are being asked. (imagine how much money would have been made if the company was run efficiently for the past decade) Of course running with the "kick down" culture, the ones who do all the hard work will be the ones who suffer first.

This entire dysfunctional structure has been allowed to bloat itself silly by the current heads of the group. Just like they patted themselves on the back for the "marvellous performance of the management team" of the last few years, they also have to take complete responsibility for the current quagmire.

Change management means change the management. It's the only way to save this company.


That's just the nature of business in the middle east, no change management programme on earth can address that.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 6:38 pm

Ryanair01 wrote:
That's just the nature of business in the middle east, no change management programme on earth can address that.


That's quite inconsistent with the "numbers run business" mantra being repeated here. It's kind of hard to see how EK has gotten the results it's gotten over the years if it's so weighed down by excess layers of management with nepotism / cronyism / etc.
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 6:55 pm

There is a world of difference between a spectacular fall in profits and bankruptcy. What you would need are spectacular losses materialising on a sustained basis. EK is nowhere near being a bubble operation to begin with, they just have to tweak their performance to recoup the fall in profits...cut costs essentially and concentrate on high-profitability routes. But also perhaps cut back certain routes and defer/cancel certain deliveries.

Faro
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goosebayguy
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 7:36 pm

If say EK went bankrupt and I say this totally hyperthetically here, The other airlines would be inundated with pasengers to fill the void. All the orders would soon be snapped up by airlines trying to expand rapidly.

As for the A380 secondhand market IAG have stated they want more A380's. I've no doubt they will run the slide rule over them.
 
lancelot07
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 7:52 pm

Faro wrote:
There is a world of difference between a spectacular fall in profits and bankruptcy. What you would need are spectacular losses materialising on a sustained basis. EK is nowhere near being a bubble operation to begin with, they just have to tweak their performance to recoup the fall in profits...cut costs essentially and concentrate on high-profitability routes. But also perhaps cut back certain routes and defer/cancel certain deliveries.

Faro

Yes, smaller profits do not lead to bankruptcy. BUT what comes after a sudden, unforeseen and dramatic drop in profits? The probability for huge losses is uncomfortably high.

EK is supposed not to depend on Arab oil business and high oil prices, actually it should profit from cheap fuel. So why is there a drop in profits? American and European airlines seem to grow their profits. It seems to demand much more than tweaking a little here and there. It may be that the writing is on the wall for EK's business model with the LHR-PER nonstop flight. More similar routes will follow. And then: Why connect, when you can fly nonstop?

And don't forget that canceling routes and storing planes or canceling deliveries is not without cost. EK may be numbers-run. But was it ever yield-orientated run?

goosebayguy wrote:
If say EK went bankrupt and I say this totally hyperthetically here, The other airlines would be inundated with pasengers to fill the void. All the orders would soon be snapped up by airlines trying to expand rapidly.

As for the A380 secondhand market IAG have stated they want more A380's. I've no doubt they will run the slide rule over them.

The A-380 orders probably would not be taken up by other airlines. In case of a liquidation of EK, there would be more than enough around for a very low price.
 
coolian2
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:03 pm

lancelot07 wrote:
It may be that the writing is on the wall for EK's business model with the LHR-PER nonstop flight. More similar routes will follow. And then: Why connect, when you can fly nonstop?


Unless you're flying from Perth or London, you're still connecting.
Q300/ATR72-600/737-200/-300/-400/-700/-800/A320/767-200/-300/757-200/777-300ER/
747-200/-300/-400/ER/A340-300/A380-800/MD-83/-88/CRJ-700/-900
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:14 pm

sofianec wrote:
The demise of EK is again quite exaggerated. Some time is needed in order for the entire network to be calibrated around A380s and 777s. What doesn't help is of course Etihad and Qatar also expanding like crazy but time is on EK side. The strategy has been working and will adjust over time.


Maybe QR and TK, but not EY.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:32 pm

lancelot07 wrote:
EK is supposed not to depend on Arab oil business and high oil prices, actually it should profit from cheap fuel. So why is there a drop in profits?


The theory here is that EK does better in a high fuel climate than their competitors because they have a high-efficiency fleet. Perhaps as the competition adds more 787/A350 generation a/c that theory won't hold.
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JoeCanuck
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:41 pm

airbazar wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
Running 75% load factors at low yields with huge overspend in all departments doesn't sound like a well-run airline to me, how about you?
EK didn't adapt to anything until now, they kept overspending on marketing, ordering aircraft and growing on the back of oil cash.
This PR drivel is getting old.

How do you know the yields are low? And low compared to what? I'm taking a business trip to India from Boston, and EK's and QR's lowest J fare was $5000. BA's is $2900. Everyone else is in between. My co-worker if flying from RDU via JFK, and for him it was the same story. Alas, my company is putting us both on BA. I know it's just 2 examples, but based on my experience this time and in the past, I find it hard to believe this story that EK's yields are low.
jumbojet wrote:
the US legacies went bankrupt thus got help from the govt. The ME3 have their own version of help from their own governments so really, its all a wash.

You should inform yourself a little better about what the bankruptcy procedures are like in the U.S. before making silly comments like that.


Oh right...like how subsidies, (which the US3 are still trying to prove the ME3 get), are nothing like bankruptcy. Well...except for the fact that it is a law passed by the government which allows US companies to completely screw their employees and creditors by cancelling legal contracts and debt. As well they pass on their legal obligation to fund contractually obligated retirement funds, to the tune of billions of dollars, all contracts they entered into without coercion, to the taxpayer because the government picked up that tab.

Bankruptcy is a way for managers of poorly run companies to screw everybody else, while walking away with a golden handshake, while those who entered into business with said companies.

Regardless of who is screwed directly or indirectly by subsidies or bankruptcy, the companies both get external relief from debt and payments. They are both a gift and reward terrible business practices.
What the...?
 
ytz
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 10:22 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
No Small WBs or NBs on order


People consistently forgot about FZ.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:00 pm

Ya know, all this speculation is due to a reduction in profit. Not a loss, but a reduction in profit.

Vs. the competitor that shall not be named back to Lossing a good amount every day with only a third the debt aircraft:
http://m.firstpost.com/business/air-ind ... 52056.html

EK is leveraged due to leases. But last I looked, they could return aircraft to lessen debt load.

Again I ask, what does this mean for EK's competitors who aren't numbers run:. Saudis, Air India, AirAsia, LionAir, Jet Airways, and Qatar.

Notice I do not include 6E, EY, or SQ. Those airlines I consider numbers run. TK.. I am still working on my opinion.

When EK gets a cough, the other non-number run airlines need the ICU.

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Varsity1
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
Ryanair01 wrote:
That's just the nature of business in the middle east, no change management programme on earth can address that.


That's quite inconsistent with the "numbers run business" mantra being repeated here. It's kind of hard to see how EK has gotten the results it's gotten over the years if it's so weighed down by excess layers of management with nepotism / cronyism / etc.



Easy to get short term results with unlimited debt. EK is sitting on a mountain of subsidized debt. They borrow at rates around 1% while airlines world wide are borrowing at rates 3x that.
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lancelot07
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:38 pm

coolian2 wrote:
lancelot07 wrote:
It may be that the writing is on the wall for EK's business model with the LHR-PER nonstop flight. More similar routes will follow. And then: Why connect, when you can fly nonstop?


Unless you're flying from Perth or London, you're still connecting.

Don't worry, other city pairs will follow. And you are connecting at convenient times of day, and not in the Middle East.
 
lancelot07
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:53 pm

lightsaber wrote:
...Again I ask, what does this mean for EK's competitors who aren't numbers run:. Saudis, Air India, AirAsia, LionAir, Jet Airways, and Qatar.

Notice I do not include 6E, EY, or SQ. Those airlines I consider numbers run. TK.. I am still working on my opinion.

When EK gets a cough, the other non-number run airlines need the ICU.

Lightsaber

It means nothing, at least not for Saudia, Air India and Qatar. And i include EY in this group. They are owned by governments with deep pockets. As long as the ruler likes this hobby horse and pays the bills, they will not change. But some say that Dubai lives off EK and desperately needs the dividend, which opens different angles of views.

And btw., you can return a leased plane only when the lease expires.
 
dubaiamman243
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:08 am

From Sir Tim Clark interview:

-2017 will be challenging for all airlines
-New interesting destinations coming up
-Emirates will continue growing but not like the past years. (Slowly growing)
-Emirates is embarking a major transformation.
-New array of products during the coming years.
-Once Emirates master data manipulation, customer offerings will be personalized.
-product presentation will be more versatile.
-Cabins for B777X fleet is ready
-A redesign for the bar on the A380
-New economy class seats on the A380
-Improving ground product at DXB
-Transit experience
-more premium lounges
- better call center experience
- in 20 years time, twin engines jets will be the most popular (B787, B777X and A350)
- Emirates will move to DWC by 2025-2026
The next airline CEO :crossfingers:
 
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BobPatterson
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:12 am

Varsity1 wrote:
Easy to get short term results with unlimited debt. EK is sitting on a mountain of subsidized debt. They borrow at rates around 1% while airlines world wide are borrowing at rates 3x that.


From page 110 of Emirates' 2015-16 annual report:

"The effective interest rate per annum on lease liabilities was 2.6% (2015: 2.9%), term loans was 3.6% (2015: 3.8%) and bonds was 4.7% (2015: 4.7%)."

Do you have solid information that conflicts with this?

Source: http://content.emirates.com/downloads/e ... t_2016.pdf
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
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BobPatterson
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:18 am

lancelot07 wrote:
And btw., you can return a leased plane only when the lease expires.


Have you read the terms of all aircraft leases? It isn't difficult to find instances of early returns to lessors. One might expect a penalty, just as there might be a penalty for early payoff of a loan. I would imagine that a lease that did not contain an early cancellation clause would be pretty rare. Check out the annual reports for Monarch Airlines.

Please correct me if you have evidence to the contrary.
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:34 am

lancelot07 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
...Again I ask, what does this mean for EK's competitors who aren't numbers run:. Saudis, Air India, AirAsia, LionAir, Jet Airways, and Qatar.

Notice I do not include 6E, EY, or SQ. Those airlines I consider numbers run. TK.. I am still working on my opinion.

When EK gets a cough, the other non-number run airlines need the ICU.

Lightsaber

It means nothing, at least not for Saudia, Air India and Qatar. And i include EY in this group. They are owned by governments with deep pockets. As long as the ruler likes this hobby horse and pays the bills, they will not change. But some say that Dubai lives off EK and desperately needs the dividend, which opens different angles of views.

And btw., you can return a leased plane only when the lease expires.


You do realize in any given year EK is extending leases? All they have to do is stop extending. There are always early return provisions. While those come with a cost, it is quite possible for EK to dramatically downsize over a few years.

India just denied AI a big input of cash. See my link in my last post. I speculate that after demonitization there will be less interest in funneling cash into AI. With Indigo about to break 50% domestic market share, there is less urgency.

Saudi Arabia has cash flow issues as does Qatar and Abu Dhabi. So I think prior patterns will be broken.

EK does fund Dubai. If the dividend drops, projects throughout the city will halt. Cest la vie.

There is a slowdown coming through. It will be very interesting to see who fails to adapt.

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travelhound
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:15 am

lightsaber wrote:
Ya know, all this speculation is due to a reduction in profit. Not a loss, but a reduction in profit.

......

EK is leveraged due to leases. But last I looked, they could return aircraft to lessen debt load.

......

Lightsaber


With Emirates Airlines intrinsically linked with the airport and other services associated businesses, I don't think we can look at Emirates aircraft lease commitments as representative of the airline itself. For instance, it could have been advantages for Emirates aircraft to be leased/financed and other parts of the business (i.e. airport infrastructure) owned. As such, once we consider all of the airline/airport businesses as a complete entity we wold probably come to different conclusions about appropriate levels of debt.

I'd suggest if there are financial head winds ahead Emirates will just need time to adjust to different market conditions.
 
DFW789ER
Posts: 399
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2016 11:20 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:31 am

lightsaber wrote:
Ya know, all this speculation is due to a reduction in profit. Not a loss, but a reduction in profit.

Vs. the competitor that shall not be named back to Lossing a good amount every day with only a third the debt aircraft:
http://m.firstpost.com/business/air-ind ... 52056.html

EK is leveraged due to leases. But last I looked, they could return aircraft to lessen debt load.

Again I ask, what does this mean for EK's competitors who aren't numbers run:. Saudis, Air India, AirAsia, LionAir, Jet Airways, and Qatar.

Notice I do not include 6E, EY, or SQ. Those airlines I consider numbers run. TK.. I am still working on my opinion.

When EK gets a cough, the other non-number run airlines need the ICU.

Lightsaber


Not sure TK is going to pose a threat until the political situation changes. Another terrorist event in Istanbul New Years Eve isn't going to help.
 
Planesmart
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:09 am

enzo011 wrote:
From what I have seen is that it does seem that Airbus is a lot more reasonable when airlines want/need to defer deliveries whereas Boeing seems to be a lot more stringent and referrals seem to happen more with Airbus. We have had quotes that seems to confirm that this is the case. So is Airbus playing the game where when new RFP's are sent out for new orders will this be a positive or a wasted exercise.

Both OEM's have been lax when it comes to enforcing orders and options, allowing repeated deferrals, without financial penalty.

Boeing made the first, unpopular move, and then Airbus joined in. We can expect quite a few order and options disappearing, and a smattering of firmed up orders and options from airlines that want to lock in unrepeatable deep discounts.
 
lancelot07
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 6:13 am

BobPatterson wrote:
lancelot07 wrote:
And btw., you can return a leased plane only when the lease expires.


Have you read the terms of all aircraft leases? It isn't difficult to find instances of early returns to lessors. One might expect a penalty, just as there might be a penalty for early payoff of a loan. I would imagine that a lease that did not contain an early cancellation clause would be pretty rare. Check out the annual reports for Monarch Airlines.

Please correct me if you have evidence to the contrary.

Oh yes, there is little in business that can't be settled with cash. But 1. they will have less cash afterwards, and 2. they will have less capacity to earn cash in the future. That leaves them with not extending leases. But here it is up to chance if it applies to planes they want to axe, and if it sufficient.
 
ytz
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 6:47 am

lancelot07 wrote:
coolian2 wrote:
lancelot07 wrote:
It may be that the writing is on the wall for EK's business model with the LHR-PER nonstop flight. More similar routes will follow. And then: Why connect, when you can fly nonstop?


Unless you're flying from Perth or London, you're still connecting.

Don't worry, other city pairs will follow. And you are connecting at convenient times of day, and not in the Middle East.


Even the bulk of LHR-PER passengers are still transferring. Nobody wants to sit on a 17-hr flight, especially in today's Y with 17" wide, 30" pitch seats.

Unless they are running all Y+/J/F, they won't find enough bums to fill the back end of the airplane at a yield that justifies daily ultra-long haul on many routes.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:18 am

dubaiamman243 wrote:
From Sir Tim Clark interview:

-2017 will be challenging for all airlines
-New interesting destinations coming up
-Emirates will continue growing but not like the past years. (Slowly growing)
-Emirates is embarking a major transformation.
-New array of products during the coming years.
-Once Emirates master data manipulation, customer offerings will be personalized.
-product presentation will be more versatile.
-Cabins for B777X fleet is ready
-A redesign for the bar on the A380
-New economy class seats on the A380
-Improving ground product at DXB
-Transit experience
-more premium lounges
- better call center experience
- in 20 years time, twin engines jets will be the most popular (B787, B777X and A350)
- Emirates will move to DWC by 2025-2026


Oh oh, it sounds like the A380 is going 3-5-3 on the main deck and 3-3-3 on the upper deck.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:30 am

lightsaber wrote:
Ya know, all this speculation is due to a reduction in profit. Not a loss, but a reduction in profit.

Vs. the competitor that shall not be named back to Lossing a good amount every day with only a third the debt aircraft:
http://m.firstpost.com/business/air-ind ... 52056.html

EK is leveraged due to leases. But last I looked, they could return aircraft to lessen debt load.

Again I ask, what does this mean for EK's competitors who aren't numbers run:. Saudis, Air India, AirAsia, LionAir, Jet Airways, and Qatar.

Notice I do not include 6E, EY, or SQ. Those airlines I consider numbers run. TK.. I am still working on my opinion.

When EK gets a cough, the other non-number run airlines need the ICU.

Lightsaber



I have been bullish about EK in the recent past. When they were expanding more and more when other airlines were still figuring out if they were coming or going it made me think that EK must know things these airlines don't.

Then in the last couple of years when the oil price and thus fuel price dropped we have seen most airlines profit jump to unbelievable levels or airlines that we know were in the midst of restructuring go from a position where losses were expected to posting a small profit. During this time I was eagerly looking towards EK showing in more profits and margins as you would expect a company as numbers run as EK to really have a windfall yet their results were about the same as before (as far as I remember, not a fact though). Now in the past year as you post the company posted a fall in profits while fuel prices are still down and they still have that bane of passengers included in their fare, "Carrier related charges", or fuel fee.

So while the prices of their biggest expense has gone down it means other prices have steadily been rising. This makes you pause for the future if fuel prices go up again (maybe unlikely but nothing like an Orange temper to start a spat that causes uncertainty around the globe). It at least makes me wonder whether they have actually expanded further than they should have and the old expansion plans may still be on the cards, new A380s inbound and more 777 and 777X as well which will only mean more capacity.

I am not for one saying that EK is in trouble and expect the airline to fade away, but I am not as bullish as before and actually feel the airline may not be as nimble to adjust to capacity challenges as many seem to believe. This is caused a little by the company itself and its ability to grow so tremendously in the past but once the engines had been programmed to full forward the steps to slow down may take longer than really comfortable. Once an airline starts getting a perception in the industry that it is even worse to work for than before (note worse than before) because they are cutting costs the whole model becomes even tougher to maintain as you have to work harder at finding staff and that may cause a reduction in standards across the company. This will be felt by the paying bums in seats which may cause a loss of revenue which exasperates the problems even more, which is a slippery slope.

Good luck to the new management that will take over once Tim Clark leaves as he has done a stellar job yet following on from that may not been as easy as it would have been had he left 3 years ago instead of now.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:33 am

Waterbomber wrote:
Oh oh, it sounds like the A380 is going 3-5-3 on the main deck and 3-3-3 on the upper deck.



That is some leap in logic, it only mentions new seats in Y. That could mean a new layout as you infer but more likely just a new design of their seats. I don't think the problem is needing more capacity at EK so don't know how adding more seats to the A380 would help.
 
9w748capt
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:00 am

ytz wrote:
lancelot07 wrote:
coolian2 wrote:

Unless you're flying from Perth or London, you're still connecting.

Don't worry, other city pairs will follow. And you are connecting at convenient times of day, and not in the Middle East.


Even the bulk of LHR-PER passengers are still transferring. Nobody wants to sit on a 17-hr flight, especially in today's Y with 17" wide, 30" pitch seats.

Unless they are running all Y+/J/F, they won't find enough bums to fill the back end of the airplane at a yield that justifies daily ultra-long haul on many routes.


LHR-PER will survive off of paid J traffic, regardless of loads in Y. QF won't mind lighter loads in Y if even Y pax are paying a premium. I don't believe their 789 will have an F cabin.

And besides, 17 hours is hardly out of the norm. US-HKG routinely takes 16 hours and CX has no trouble filling up steerage.
 
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Clipper101
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:23 am

Waterbomber wrote:

Oh oh, it sounds like the A380 is going 3-5-3 on the main deck and 3-3-3 on the upper deck.


No it is not ! In the radio broadcast link posted above STC specifically stated Y/C will remain 10-abreast in main deck (listen at 12:13).
 
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Clipper101
Posts: 697
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:40 am

enzo011 wrote:
I don't think the problem is needing more capacity at EK so don't know how adding more seats to the A380 would help.


In my understanding they lately raised Y/C count on their ULR (with crew rest) A380's from 401 to 426 possibly by adopting a solution to have an underfloor crew rest quarters, before that they added two Y/C as interim solution (399 to 401 & 427 to 429); so, yes they always tend to look for ways to boost capacity of their A380's ! Don't forget there is also AIB solution for redesigning Aft staircase for future A380 fleet, so I am wondering if that would possess a possibility for another raise or possibly adding flexibility to their total Y/C count when they introduce upper economy !
Last edited by Clipper101 on Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:47 am

I think this thread is overfocused on the aircraft types and size. There's considerable risk in EK, but it is like the risk in all other airlines as well. It is a very tough market, difficult to do well. EK has managed well so far, I think. Future is of course uncertain. But I don't think being small and flying small planes necessarily reduces the risk... hundreds of failed small airlines would probably agree :-)

Also, EK's success or failure is probably much more about their business model and customer segments than about specific airplane types or their efficiency. Affected by those factors of course, but the effects are indirect. Can they find enough people in Bologna region that want to fly anywhere else in the world (except Europe)? That is their market.
 
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Clipper101
Posts: 697
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:57 am

Absolutely, you always see airlines entering a market then after 2-3 months they close it, it makes you wonder why in the first place that route was opened, based on what marketing studies did you make that decision & what was their effort to commit to that market to stay in it. I can not see that with EK, when they enter a market, they become persistent into wanting being their, you can not see that in other airlines.
 
waly777
Posts: 754
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 7:11 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:08 am

enzo011 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Ya know, all this speculation is due to a reduction in profit. Not a loss, but a reduction in profit.

Vs. the competitor that shall not be named back to Lossing a good amount every day with only a third the debt aircraft:
http://m.firstpost.com/business/air-ind ... 52056.html

EK is leveraged due to leases. But last I looked, they could return aircraft to lessen debt load.

Again I ask, what does this mean for EK's competitors who aren't numbers run:. Saudis, Air India, AirAsia, LionAir, Jet Airways, and Qatar.

Notice I do not include 6E, EY, or SQ. Those airlines I consider numbers run. TK.. I am still working on my opinion.

When EK gets a cough, the other non-number run airlines need the ICU.

Lightsaber



I have been bullish about EK in the recent past. When they were expanding more and more when other airlines were still figuring out if they were coming or going it made me think that EK must know things these airlines don't.

Then in the last couple of years when the oil price and thus fuel price dropped we have seen most airlines profit jump to unbelievable levels or airlines that we know were in the midst of restructuring go from a position where losses were expected to posting a small profit. During this time I was eagerly looking towards EK showing in more profits and margins as you would expect a company as numbers run as EK to really have a windfall yet their results were about the same as before (as far as I remember, not a fact though). Now in the past year as you post the company posted a fall in profits while fuel prices are still down and they still have that bane of passengers included in their fare, "Carrier related charges", or fuel fee.

So while the prices of their biggest expense has gone down it means other prices have steadily been rising. This makes you pause for the future if fuel prices go up again (maybe unlikely but nothing like an Orange temper to start a spat that causes uncertainty around the globe). It at least makes me wonder whether they have actually expanded further than they should have and the old expansion plans may still be on the cards, new A380s inbound and more 777 and 777X as well which will only mean more capacity.

I am not for one saying that EK is in trouble and expect the airline to fade away, but I am not as bullish as before and actually feel the airline may not be as nimble to adjust to capacity challenges as many seem to believe. This is caused a little by the company itself and its ability to grow so tremendously in the past but once the engines had been programmed to full forward the steps to slow down may take longer than really comfortable. Once an airline starts getting a perception in the industry that it is even worse to work for than before (note worse than before) because they are cutting costs the whole model becomes even tougher to maintain as you have to work harder at finding staff and that may cause a reduction in standards across the company. This will be felt by the paying bums in seats which may cause a loss of revenue which exasperates the problems even more, which is a slippery slope.

Good luck to the new management that will take over once Tim Clark leaves as he has done a stellar job yet following on from that may not been as easy as it would have been had he left 3 years ago instead of now.


TC has mentioned why there was a reduction in profits. There is overcapacity in the ME (partly their fault and QR) in addition to reduced demand, that's a recipe for a drop in fares and yield as airlines fight for market share. There is also a bit of over capacity in Asia, the UK and brexit issues, a whole host of others which are real and affect EK as well as the ME3.

EK posted record profits for 2015, however the market has gone south for now (it was inevitable this as it happens on average of once or twice each decade). Nothing major to see here, the well structured airlines adapt and move on. This wouldn't be the first or 100th time EK's demise has been wrongly predicted.
The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
 
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seahawk
Posts: 9075
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:16 am

Before EK fails, EY and QR are gone and when this happens, EK is secure.
 
Eyad89
Posts: 645
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:47 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:31 am

seahawk wrote:
Before EK fails, EY and QR are gone and when this happens, EK is secure.



That's a pretty good way of looking at it. The thing is, the fleet of EK has all high risk aircraft, and that's what some folks here are trying to imply. If things go bad, EY and QR have a lot of A320's and 787/A350 that generally cost much less to operate. That could prove useful in times of recessions and tough financial periods.
 
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Channex757
Posts: 2370
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:02 am

Eyad89 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Before EK fails, EY and QR are gone and when this happens, EK is secure.



That's a pretty good way of looking at it. The thing is, the fleet of EK has all high risk aircraft, and that's what some folks here are trying to imply. If things go bad, EY and QR have a lot of A320's and 787/A350 that generally cost much less to operate. That could prove useful in times of recessions and tough financial periods.

And the owners of EK have a substantial fleet of 738s at FZ they could bring into play.

FlyDubai isn't the Ryanair of the Gulf any more. They have even started introducing a Business Class. Bringing the two carriers closer isn't inconceivable.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5044
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:48 am

[quote="9w748capt"LHR-PER will survive off of paid J traffic, regardless of loads in Y. QF won't mind lighter loads in Y if even Y pax are paying a premium. I don't believe their 789 will have an F cabin. .[/quote]

MAYBE it will maybe it won't, but I wouldn't bet on it doing so at this stage. I of course, do not have the information that QF do, but I am skeptical about there being enough traffic, unless QF do something else unusual such as cancelling/truncating QF9/10 [the political consequences in Victoria would be horrendous!] or some special deal with EK in addition to the current agreement or something else. I just can't see a significant amount of traffic [some, yes; significant no] connecting in PER from the east coast.

Gemuser
 
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Clipper101
Posts: 697
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:44 pm

waly777 wrote:

TC has mentioned why there was a reduction in profits. There is overcapacity in the ME (partly their fault and QR) in addition to reduced demand, that's a recipe for a drop in fares and yield as airlines fight for market share. There is also a bit of over capacity in Asia, the UK and brexit issues, a whole host of others which are real and affect EK as well as the ME3.

EK posted record profits for 2015, however the market has gone south for now (it was inevitable this as it happens on average of once or twice each decade). Nothing major to see here, the well structured airlines adapt and move on. This wouldn't be the first or 100th time EK's demise has been wrongly predicted.


Nicely put. Instead of being hammered for stating their profits are down they should be rather praised by being so transparent about it. Instead of diving into all aspects of negativity, people should accept the positivity of it that EK is as much of a business as everybody else & is also being affected by the dynamics of the environment surrounding this business same as everybody else are.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9028
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:48 pm

DoctorVenkman wrote:
...many banks had record profits in 2006-2007 before the financial crash in 2008.


You have to look at creative profits. i.e. value add created from producing something.

Banks only make distributive profits. ( i.e. they take money for/from services and/or leveraging. )
Murphy is an optimist
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1084
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:22 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:22 pm

WIederling wrote:
DoctorVenkman wrote:
...many banks had record profits in 2006-2007 before the financial crash in 2008.


You have to look at creative profits. i.e. value add created from producing something.

Banks only make distributive profits. ( i.e. they take money for/from services and/or leveraging. )

so do airlines! They don't produce something, they provide a service.
 
PanHAM
Posts: 9731
Joined: Fri May 06, 2005 6:44 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:51 pm

Airlines produce ton Kilometers and passenger kilomaters, resp. miles. The economic impact, the net product (Wertschöpfung) can be measured, It is a Service industry. The total GNP from aviation inustry in Germany alone is around 50 Billion € annually. The Service aspect, meaning the gains for other industries provided by the fact that the Services are avilable to them, is not included in that figure.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1084
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:22 pm

Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 01, 2017 5:44 pm

PanHAM wrote:
Airlines produce ton Kilometers and passenger kilomaters, resp. miles. The economic impact, the net product (Wertschöpfung) can be measured, It is a Service industry. The total GNP from aviation inustry in Germany alone is around 50 Billion € annually. The Service aspect, meaning the gains for other industries provided by the fact that the Services are avilable to them, is not included in that figure.

The same thing applies to banks and other services. The whole concept of "value added" is marxist nonsense.

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