Whalejet
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:51 am

I've flown EK many times, the last time being June 2015. In particular, America to Kochi India, a "small" city. When I flew, it was a 773 (I think, it may have been a 77W but it doesn't make a difference capacity-wise). That aircraft was packed on the way there, and the way back. It isn't a coincidence that this is the exact business model that EK uses, connecting Africa, India, and Asia to Europe and America.

EK has done the previously unimaginable by running a fleet of A380s that is 84 strong. They've managed rapid growth in sluggish economic times. They are a truly unique airline on Earth. You cannot compare EY or QR to EK, simply because of the fact that EK has 84 A380s.

The main threat to EK is not the rest of the ME3, it's various carriers in India and China that can fly to the US and Europe but don't have the massive fleet that Emirates does. Emirates runs 8 A380s on DXB-LHR, and more A380s on routes like DXB-PEK or DXB-BOM. Is any airline really going to be able to compete with that, especially with the fact that Emirates tends to have lower fares?

EK will slow in it's growth, simply because it's running out of destinations to chuck VLAs at. That doesn't mean that they will collapse. Anything that would bring down EK would cripple the rest of the airline industry. EK will still have to replace it's planes, and they still have their order for 150 777Xs and 60 more A380s on order that I doubt they will hold off on.
 
Planesmart
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:20 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
There is no shred of evidence this is a well run numbers company and most likely even Emir doesn't believe that anymore.

One great EK number I appreciate, is the ability to talk to someone comprehensible in a call centre within seconds, plus intelligent, helpful answers and prompt action. For the US3 and EU3, I get music and repetitive messages, music and repetitive messages, music and repetitive messages, music and repetitive messages.....................
 
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scbriml
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:57 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
There is no shred of evidence this is a well run numbers company


Apart from consistent profits and massive passenger growth? :rotfl:

blrsea wrote:
Isn't Dnata providing services not only for EK but also for many airlines at Dubai(and other airports)? I believe its more like Menzies Corp in that it provides ground handling services in many airports. How can those employee count be assigned to EK, while its a separate subsidiary with its own P&L?


Yes, correct. They are also the ground agent at DWC. Emirates Group reports the financials of Dnata separately from Emirates the airline. Some, who always seem to have an agenda against EK, willfully chose to ignore those facts.
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dubaiamman243
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:58 am

Whalejet wrote:
I've flown EK many times, the last time being June 2015. In particular, America to Kochi India, a "small" city. When I flew, it was a 773 (I think, it may have been a 77W but it doesn't make a difference capacity-wise). That aircraft was packed on the way there, and the way back. It isn't a coincidence that this is the exact business model that EK uses, connecting Africa, India, and Asia to Europe and America.

EK has done the previously unimaginable by running a fleet of A380s that is 84 strong. They've managed rapid growth in sluggish economic times. They are a truly unique airline on Earth. You cannot compare EY or QR to EK, simply because of the fact that EK has 84 A380s.

The main threat to EK is not the rest of the ME3, it's various carriers in India and China that can fly to the US and Europe but don't have the massive fleet that Emirates does. Emirates runs 8 A380s on DXB-LHR, and more A380s on routes like DXB-PEK or DXB-BOM. Is any airline really going to be able to compete with that, especially with the fact that Emirates tends to have lower fares?

EK will slow in it's growth, simply because it's running out of destinations to chuck VLAs at. That doesn't mean that they will collapse. Anything that would bring down EK would cripple the rest of the airline industry. EK will still have to replace it's planes, and they still have their order for 150 777Xs and 60 more A380s on order that I doubt they will hold off on.


FYI, EK now has 92 A380.
The next airline CEO :crossfingers:
 
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Faro
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:49 am

scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
There is no shred of evidence this is a well run numbers company


Apart from consistent profits and massive passenger growth? :rotfl:



As everyone knows, audited financial statements mean nothing since Enron...EK's auditors have been lavishly bribed by the Sheikhs for the last ten years...they're the ones who have been blowing up the bubble...every analyst knows this :sarcastic: :sarcastic: :sarcastic:
The chalice not my son
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:18 pm

scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
There is no shred of evidence this is a well run numbers company


Apart from consistent profits and massive passenger growth? :rotfl:

blrsea wrote:
Isn't Dnata providing services not only for EK but also for many airlines at Dubai(and other airports)? I believe its more like Menzies Corp in that it provides ground handling services in many airports. How can those employee count be assigned to EK, while its a separate subsidiary with its own P&L?


Yes, correct. They are also the ground agent at DWC. Emirates Group reports the financials of Dnata separately from Emirates the airline. Some, who always seem to have an agenda against EK, willfully chose to ignore those facts.



So for every dnata job there is a EK person shadowing/verifying same job??

Emirates
Total 65000
Core 30000
Remote 5000
DXB non-core 30000

dnata
Total 40000
Remote 16000
DXB/DWC 24000.

Even if just 10,000 dnata staff are for EK,
40,000 non-frontal for 160 DXB departures a day in four banks,
40 departures per bank
10,000 staff per bank.
250 staff per plane/departure (10000/40). WB's estimate was right, there is almost one support employee per seat.
Just crude math, not well cooked numbers.

Have you looked at Swissport or Menzies, they are well managed lean organization manage lot more airports with lot less staff. Why do EK need 5000 remote staff, that is like 50 EK badge holders per station managed by an outsourced contractor like Swissport/Menzies/dnata.
Last edited by dtw2hyd on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
parapente
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:20 pm

Slightly off subject but.
If we were to assume that Emirates were to trim their forecast for the number of active A380's from around 120 odd to say 100 and keep the 777 numbers the same ( but obviously a capacity increase overall as both today's 2 class 389's and the 779 are bigger than the aircraft they are replacing).
Why would Emirates go to the vast cost and trouble of moving to a new airport down the road when the existing one can cope with the aircraft movements projected?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:45 pm

2
parapente wrote:
Slightly off subject but.
If we were to assume that Emirates were to trim their forecast for the number of active A380's from around 120 odd to say 100 and keep the 777 numbers the same ( but obviously a capacity increase overall as both today's 2 class 389's and the 779 are bigger than the aircraft they are replacing).
Why would Emirates go to the vast cost and trouble of moving to a new airport down the road when the existing one can cope with the aircraft movements projected?


In 2017, next year, you will see Emirates passing the 100 A380 frames mark. My guess would be middle of the year. 92 EK frames delivered and 13 in the FAL or outfitting.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:52 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Even if just 10,000 dnata staff are for EK,


I'm really not sure why you think dnata dedicates 25% of its global staff to EK?

dtw2hyd wrote:
dnata
Total 40000
Remote 16000
DXB/DWC 24000.


Again, why are you assuming that every dnata employee based in the UAE is working at DXB or DWC? They provide lots of additional services, other than aircraft handling.

According to dnata's figures for 2015/16, their average global employee strength for the year was 34,117 and they handled 389,412 aircraft, 2 million tonnes of cargo and provided over 57 million in-flight meals in addition to their other services (e.g. travel agencies).

dnata say their UAE Airport Services workforce is 15,000 handling 1,200 aircraft movements and 2,000 tonnes of cargo every day. That's a long way short of your claimed 24,000!
http://www.dnata.com/en/global-network/ ... t-services
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SEPilot
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:02 pm

I have no direct knowledge of EK, either their financial status or their operations. I do question, however, if it is possible for any organization to grow as fast as they have grown and remain efficient and well-run. As I see it they were blessed by a very fortunate geographic position and the foresight to see that they could link all 5 continents of the world, and so they purchased the largest (and, at the time, most efficient) airliner available to do just that. They have succeeded quite well, and have grown faster than anyone could have predicted. My experience with human nature tells me that unless they were extraordinarily vigilant and wise, that growth would have almost certainly caused a lot of deadwood and bad habits to be swept in as well. And there is no organization that can continue to grow indefinitely; there are always limits. If EK is in fact reaching their growth limits, then management will have to transform their approach from concentrating on growth to rooting out inefficiencies within. If they have reached a limit to growth and continue to focus on more growth, that in itself can bring them down with excess capacity. So the question is does management have the ability to recognize when the limit is reached and change focus to keep the organization healthy. We will see if they do by the results. But I think it is way too soon to say that EK is in trouble.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:42 pm

scbriml wrote:
I'm really not sure why you think dnata dedicates 25% of its global staff to EK?

scbriml wrote:
Again, why are you assuming that every dnata employee based in the UAE is working at DXB or DWC? They provide lots of additional services, other than aircraft handling.


Please think before what you want to argue/discuss about. I know you are having difficulty defending this.

According to their half-yearly report as of September 2016 dnata strength was 38400. By now it will be 40K because someone who want to become a manager, hire few thousands and declare him/her self as manager. That is the talk on the town about the culture of this well numbers company.

Emirates is their biggest customer at their largest hub. Do you think 25% is too much??

This is on top of 30,000 support DXB employees with in Emirates airline
 
astuteman
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:21 pm

T54A wrote:
Lots of rumors circulating about trouble at EK. Is the EK (and ME3) bubble about to burst and could this have dire consequences for Boeing and Airbus?


I've kept out of this thread on the basis that once you respond to the ridiculous statements that get made, you become part of them
However, you asked the question ...

Rumours are rumours...
Revelation's questions about the limits of the "hubbing" model that EK follows are sound questions.
Limits aren't the same as a "bubble".

If for some reason the EK bubble were to "burst", I struggle to see the consequences as "dire" for either OEM

Very worst cases?

Airbus?
If it is this year, some 40 x A380's don't get built at a loss (break-even at best) and Airbus close the line
Some $18Bn of business at list disappears (out of a backlog of roughly $950Bn value at list) - i.e. 2%
Some of that business would be immediate in terms of deliveries
Many of us would be sad at the demise of so unique an aircraft (a 4-holer at that), but in reality I suspect the Airbus tears would dry out pretty quickly once they realise they've given up a market position that is actually in a market that isn't there..
Might accelerate plans for an A350-8000 though :)

Boeing?
Some 150 x 777X don't get built.
Some $60Bn of business at list disappears (out of a backlog of roughly $900Bn value at list) - i.e. 6.5%
Obviously deliveries are c. 3 years out. That is quite some dent in the 777X's backlog though.
Enough to threaten the programme? Unlikely.
Dire for Boeing? As a company, no.

Might make an A350-8000 look a better business proposition for Airbus though :)

Back to your opening question, though.
The "bubble" isn't going to burst.
The variable is to what extent planned growth actually materialises.

Rgds
 
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speedbored
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:07 pm

astuteman wrote:
However, you asked the question ...

There you go again, trolling yet another perfectly ridiculous thread with your facts and common-sense :)

astuteman wrote:
I've kept out of this thread on the basis that once you respond to the ridiculous statements that get made, you become part of them

I suspect that, along with the additional effort now required to create replies, this is probably why so few of the most knowledgeable and sensible posters of old rarely post here anymore. A real shame.
 
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QuarkFly
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:21 pm

astuteman wrote:
...I've kept out of this thread on the basis that once you respond to the ridiculous statements that get made, you become part of them
However, you asked the question ...


That's why we use avatar's...not our real names !!

There is no EK bubble, but they are Pan Am in the 1960's -- What they have done is take advantage of geography, cheap credit, accommodating authorities, and aggressive expansion to change the air travel map this century --- but they have peaked...

1. The Norwegian model and maybe AirAsiaX will start to pick at the low end.

2. Protectionism: US MAGA may hit them; EU also; We saw what happened in Canada...and China will never let EK be its primary feeder.

3. Brexit may make LHR other UK cities less important..EK will have eventual overcapacity to UK, lower yields.

4. Some national carriers have wised up and are competing better...Perth to London on QANTAS nonstop flies over EK Hub; J-class comfort and service is getting better on most carriers -- EK service and comfort is mediocre; 777 10-across 777 - Yuck; Same for 600+ passenger A380 (the A380 upper deck open bar is still great !! )

5. India: If they get their aviation act together -- Successful low cost airlines and a better long haul carrier (AI, what are you up to?)... EK would lose status as India's de-facto international carrier of choice

6. There will be ME3 casualties, capacity dumping -- QR and EY also are expanding for now, similarly supported by respective governments...who is going to blink first and stop growing...EK?

7. Yields...a full A380 or 77X will mean discounted fares...

8. Aircraft: Will EK really replace 12 year old A380s and 777 with new frames? -- leasers will demand more $$ or pay less for new aircraft buybacks in an over-capacity future.

9. Lower fuel prices in the foreseeable future eases competitors financial issues -- allows them to compete with EK on a more equal footing.

10. Bloat: Already happening...new mega-airports being built,; too many employees; we have seen it before and it never ends well.

11. Mideast instability is not helping.

I think the Emirates Fleet Wiki page (never an authoritative source) previously said EK plan was 400 aircraft after 2020 -- does not say that anymore!

Pan Am bubble never burst...it just slowly faded away :(
Always take the Red Eye if possible
 
emiratesdriver
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:29 am

Latest news, Pilots not being able to leave company provided accommodation as there is now a freeze on being able to receive the allowance. Cabin crew being asked to take unpaid leave. Onboard service cuts and price hikes.
All this with a back drop of "we are innovators and market leaders"
The bubble has a slow leak....
 
sierra3tango
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:56 am

QuarkFly wrote:
astuteman wrote:
...I've kept out of this thread on the basis that once you respond to the ridiculous statements that get made, you become part of them
However, you asked the question ...


That's why we use avatar's...not our real names !!

There is no EK bubble, but they are Pan Am in the 1960's -- What they have done is take advantage of geography, cheap credit, accommodating authorities, and aggressive expansion to change the air travel map this century --- but they have peaked...

1. The Norwegian model and maybe AirAsiaX will start to pick at the low end.

2. Protectionism: US MAGA may hit them; EU also; We saw what happened in Canada...and China will never let EK be its primary feeder.

3. Brexit may make LHR other UK cities less important..EK will have eventual overcapacity to UK, lower yields.

4. Some national carriers have wised up and are competing better...Perth to London on QANTAS nonstop flies over EK Hub; J-class comfort and service is getting better on most carriers -- EK service and comfort is mediocre; 777 10-across 777 - Yuck; Same for 600+ passenger A380 (the A380 upper deck open bar is still great !! )

5. India: If they get their aviation act together -- Successful low cost airlines and a better long haul carrier (AI, what are you up to?)... EK would lose status as India's de-facto international carrier of choice

6. There will be ME3 casualties, capacity dumping -- QR and EY also are expanding for now, similarly supported by respective governments...who is going to blink first and stop growing...EK?

7. Yields...a full A380 or 77X will mean discounted fares...

8. Aircraft: Will EK really replace 12 year old A380s and 777 with new frames? -- leasers will demand more $$ or pay less for new aircraft buybacks in an over-capacity future.

9. Lower fuel prices in the foreseeable future eases competitors financial issues -- allows them to compete with EK on a more equal footing.

10. Bloat: Already happening...new mega-airports being built,; too many employees; we have seen it before and it never ends well.

11. Mideast instability is not helping.

I think the Emirates Fleet Wiki page (never an authoritative source) previously said EK plan was 400 aircraft after 2020 -- does not say that anymore!

Pan Am bubble never burst...it just slowly faded away :(


Totally agreed.

History has sequel (IMHO) in GF which, whilst never had the size / clout of EK, it was a market leader (5* Tristars etc) in quality and also playing the connectivity game.

Quite a number of the points above could (in slightly different ways) be applied to GF's history - instability, bloat, political interference, protectionism, overflying by competitors etc. It never was / is allowed to go phut, nor will EK.
 
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BobPatterson
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:24 am

QuarkFly wrote:
2. Protectionism: US MAGA may hit them; EU also; We saw what happened in Canada...and China will never let EK be its primary feeder.


Could you please define/explain meaning of MAGA? Online searching turned up nothing.

Thank you.
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
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QuarkFly
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:10 am

BobPatterson wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
2. Protectionism: US MAGA may hit them; EU also; We saw what happened in Canada...and China will never let EK be its primary feeder.


Could you please define/explain meaning of MAGA? Online searching turned up nothing.

Thank you.


Trump's slogan: "Make America Great Again" -- involves protectionism...US airlines will beg him to stop EK and ME3 US expansion.
BTW, Sorry for not clarifying...have to combine search MAGA and Trump.
Always take the Red Eye if possible
 
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CARST
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:57 am

blrsea wrote:
Isn't Dnata providing services not only for EK but also for many airlines at Dubai(and other airports)? I believe its more like Menzies Corp in that it provides ground handling services in many airports. How can those employee count be assigned to EK, while its a separate subsidiary with its own P&L?


Yes, that's right. Dnata also operates many lounges worldwide, often not for Emirates, but just labled Dnata Lounge as a Third-Party-Lounge multiple airlines are using.
 
commavia
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:23 pm

Recent (last twelve hours) press reportage on this subject ...

Is Emirates Airline Running Out of Sky?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-01-05/is-emirates-airline-running-out-of-sky

Personally, I think it has long been clear that Emirates' growth was not sustainable. So much of its traffic is, obviously, connecting - and thus to some extent "artificial" in its direction. Put differently, connecting traffic can - inherently - connect through many places. Emirates has done a masterful job of turning DXB into a global crossroads where many people choose to connect - either for convenience or cost - but it always seemed implausible that traffic could be continually stimulated at those levels forever. I know I'm not alone in long harboring deep skepticism about the true need for well over 100 A380s, for instance.

And of course, also needless to say, Emirates' "artificial" stimulation of connecting traffic demand was also always reliant - to at least some extent - on the largess of the political environment in many of the markets where from which Emirates drew such traffic. The pushback being directed at the ME3 now is only a continuation, and amplification, of sentiments that were already discernible years ago in places like Canada and Germany. And while I think the media focus seems to be more on the U.S. carriers' resistance to further encroachment from the ME3 and the possible reception such arguments will get with the incoming U.S. administration, I think this dynamic is far broader and larger than just the U.S. And in particular, it is very easy to imagine - in the coming years - resistance stiffening even more dramatically if (when) Emirates starts deploying its "excess" capacity into more fifth freedom markets because its growth prospects at DXB become exhausted. U.S., European and even Asian network carriers have - to at least some extent - begrudgingly tolerated Emirates driving massive amounts of volume to and over DXB. I think they will become far less tolerant as Emirates starts to directly encroach on some of their "core" markets that don't even touch DXB. Exhibit A: MXP-JFK.

Ultimately, as said, the Emirates business model is evolving as the airline matures. Different dynamics, but similar story to Southwest - "what got you here won't get you there." The key question with Emirates, though, is the extent to which its business model is sufficiently robust and adaptable to handle a dramatically lower growth rate, and/or the extent to which its business model is portable to other markets outside of DXB as it seeks out new places to put all of its aircraft, and comes up against ever-greater resistance from local rivals (and politicians).
 
parapente
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:39 pm

I think that's a very good summary Commavia.And thanks for the Bloomberg article which IMHO is well written and makes good points.Clearly Sir T is being very honest /realistic about 2017.There will be a few new destinations.Perhaps 3 in the US.No doubt we will see others over the next 12 months.But as most commentators are stating,their 'growth phase' is coming to an end,perhaps a little sooner than they originally thought.But they will still end up with an active fleet of 100-110 A380's and 150-160 odd 777's - and that is huge.
What will be interesting will be to see the marketing change of tactics.We are already seeing the 600+ sweaters in 2 class.The article suggests that they may adopt some LCC tactics regarding luggage.Along with that they may well (it has been rumoured) introduce a premium economy class.Their pricing of that class will be interesting if they do introduce it.The 777X's will also offer an upgrade in comfort compared to the present 773's.
I guess (when it happens) Dubai World Central will be a further 'upgrade' in the total Emirates experience.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:39 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Do you think 25% is too much??


Ignoring the snide barb, yes, I think it's way too many. dnata handles many more than just EK's flights. They also employ over 8,300 in their catering division alone - which does nothing for Emirates given they do their own catering.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:06 pm

The Bloomberg article was excellent, though I have to say it gives little new information. 2016 was flat. 2017 may be a bit worse. There might be further economic downturns in the region and in the world. And the biggest question mark is of course Trump, and whether there'll be some protectionist pressures in the US or elsewhere. Could happen, though I think it is still relatively unlikely. With regards to your comments commavia re: viability of their business plans and particularly the A380s.... I can only repeat: there are risks at every size of business. I think EK will be adjusting to whatever the new conditions in the environment are. But it is IMHO ridiculous to claim that once you are beyond size N, your business idea isn't solid. Your business idea is solid if you can perform better than your competition, at your chosen niche and scale. Unfortunately, business is not easy and airline business doubly so; not just EK but every other airline in the world has to fight for their success and even existence, every year (monopolies excepted). So lets see how 2017 goes.
 
commavia
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:20 pm

AirlineCritic wrote:
And the biggest question mark is of course Trump, and whether there'll be some protectionist pressures in the US or elsewhere. Could happen, though I think it is still relatively unlikely.


I disagree. On the list of "question marks" related to Emirates' business model, I wouldn't even put the incoming U.S. administration in the top five. There are far, far larger strategic, competitive and financial challenges - or at least 'changing dynamics' - on the horizon that Emirates will have to grapple with. Frankly, I'd say one substantially more significant "question mark" is what on earth Emirates is going to do with 140 A380s. Also higher on the list would be the propensity towards protectionism or pushback against the ME3 in markets closer to Emirates' DXB hub, and thus where it is more exposed - like DXB. Another critical "question mark?" The competitive dynamics with its fellow Gulf carriers - and particularly as they seem to be more closely integrated themselves into the networks of some of their current or prospective partners in near-abroad markets, and Europe in particular (e.g., Qatar-IAG, potentially Etihad-Lufthansa, etc.).

AirlineCritic wrote:
But it is IMHO ridiculous to claim that once you are beyond size N, your business idea isn't solid.


Couldn't agree more, and thus why nobody - including me - said anything like that.

Nobody suggested that Emirates' business model "isn't solid" because it has reached a certain scale. Not at all. What I was saying, and will reiterate, is that it is still unclear how much Emirates' business model was reliant on continual growth. This is actually a common story - with airlines, and even with developing economies. There are many airlines all around the world that have sustained their business for years based on the continual feedback loop of economies of scale and revenue performance driven by growth. Indeed, to at least some extent, that's pretty much the story of every single low-fare airline in history. The issue is that in many cases, these airlines have faced varying degrees of challenges once the proverbial "music" stops and their growth settles into a more "normal," secular level.

I'm not suggesting that Emirates' business model necessarily "isn't solid" or "won't work" going forward, but merely suggesting that it will be interesting to watch how Emirates' business model evolves - and I think it's a virtual certainty that it will evolve - once it is no longer growing at such a rapid pace.

AirlineCritic wrote:
Unfortunately, business is not easy and airline business doubly so; not just EK but every other airline in the world has to fight for their success and even existence, every year (monopolies excepted). So lets see how 2017 goes.


Again - no argument. Business is tough, and the airline business is notoriously tough. Emirates is clearly a well-run enterprise that has built an incredibly impressive franchise, so I'm sure the company will effectively sort through the challenges it faces. But that doesn't change the fact that I still think Emirates does, indeed, face some significant challenges.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:23 pm

scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Do you think 25% is too much??


Ignoring the snide barb, yes, I think it's way too many. dnata handles many more than just EK's flights. They also employ over 8,300 in their catering division alone - which does nothing for Emirates given they do their own catering.


Why don't you give a number ie., how many dnata employees are for EK, rather than going in circles.

Let put dnata aside and compare in house support staff (not crew). EK's 35,000(30K DXB, 5K remote)

AA 34
DL 35
UA 55.
EK 140.
 
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sassiciai
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:23 pm

[quote="AirlineCritic"And the biggest question mark is of course Trump, .[/quote]
I'm interested to read all the posts that claim that the new Trump era will see and influence much change! I think that any balanced view must look to the much larger Trump/Putin era, as that will be more relevant, IMHO, for the world at large!

But that's a wee bit off course for this thread, isn't it?

If all bubbles burst, then I suppose the US will order the B747-8 solution for the POTUS, plus backup - but maybe at a knock-down end-of-line price!
 
parapente
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:39 pm

I don't think Emirates is (now) planning for an operational fleet of 140 380's.They may have been in the past but I doubt it now.I think we can see that in the latest 2nd) slowdown in Airbus production.Perhaps 10-15 more for expansion over the next 12-18 months but by then (I believe) the oldest (and least efficient) models will have reached the end of their lease period.I imagine (just like Singapore Airlines) they will be sent to the desert.There may be a slight trimming of the 778/9 order so they become a one for one replacement for the existing 777 fleet.
The emphasis will shift from expansion to 'marketing' .By this I mean tailor making the soft product exactly to the requirements of their various (and different) markets they serve.They need to become 'the best/preferred ' product on all the routes they service.Of course price will obviously be a factor too.But with their operating economics I would not wish to be the opposition!Its gonna get mighty tough.But good news for the traveling public!
Note with 2 class 380's and 2 class 779's their total capacity will rise in any event over time.I don't see the mid size wide body order happening any time soon if at all.Ceratinly not till after the move to DWC.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:32 pm

It is most likely that EK has in their variable business contingencies one that fits the current situation. They should have, and have planned that at some undetermined point growth would slow down or even stop. Airbus and Boeing (separately!) may well have been involved with them in that planning.

It is always a shock when a company does not do this sort of planning. I would assume that EK has.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
georgiabill
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:09 pm

I am wondering if EK should consider exchanging a few of their 779 orders for 789'S or A359'S. DXB-BOS-DXB seems to be to small of a market for 2 77W'S daily. But perhaps an A380 and 789 or 359 combination may match demand on the route. I am sure they must have other routes with same issue.
 
ThomasCook
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:03 am

emiratesdriver wrote:
Latest news, Pilots not being able to leave company provided accommodation as there is now a freeze on being able to receive the allowance. Cabin crew being asked to take unpaid leave. Onboard service cuts and price hikes.
All this with a back drop of "we are innovators and market leaders"
The bubble has a slow leak....


Living out allowance frozen = false. Pilots and cabin crew can apply for this at any time.
Cabin crew being asked to take unpaid leave = false. They are being offered the appourtunity to take between 8 days up to 20 days in Jan/Feb. They aren't being asked to do take it.
Service cuts = false. Unless you see the removal of pre-takeoff refreshing wipes in Y/C as a cut. Nonetheless pre-arrival hot towels in Y/C are offered as always.

ThomasCook
 
parapente
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:21 am

if I have understood Airbus' latest (second) statement on A380 prod and deferrals they are now planning to build 12 aircraft both this year,next and indeed going forwards.Is that correct?
If so how many are Emirates scheduled to take in 2018? 4 or 5 are going to Singapore (I believe) as their replacements.Others to other ME3?
By 2019 I think it is only Emirates on the list so I assume they are scheduled to take 12?
For certain (if not earlier -I don't think we know exactly)in 2020 the first batch of leased A380's ends so they will be removed from active service.
Clearly some A380's are being used on existing schedules as upgrades.The Man upgrade being a good example.But how many 'obvious' upgrades there are I don't know. (I guess Chicago is another)That would then leave 'X' new routes to be found.But hard to work out how many that would be.I guess you need 2 aircraft for any new daily long haul route?
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:34 pm

parapente wrote:
Clearly some A380's are being used on existing schedules as upgrades.The Man upgrade being a good example.But how many 'obvious' upgrades there are I don't know. (I guess Chicago is another)That would then leave 'X' new routes to be found.But hard to work out how many that would be.I guess you need 2 aircraft for any new daily long haul route?


Do Emirates or indeed Airbus seek to financially aid airports that may require some upgrading to A380 code F compliance ? In other words, do they provide any funding to help with the costs of that 'double air bridge' or that 'taxiway realignment' etc etc ? My impression from reading about EK's A380 ambitions, over the years, is that certain airport's names constantly come up for consideration, but infrastructure issues hold them back. My local airport Glasgow (GLA) and Newcastle (NCL) being good examples, and now the only non A380 served destinations in their UK network. GLA had a trial A380 deployment in April 2014, which was a success albeit with special restrictions applied during the taxi procedure.
 
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cougar15
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:43 pm

I have to laugh about this entire thread, but my personal Ego no longer allows me to hold my tongue. Let me set the framework first:
A: I am an absolute A380 fan
B: I love the ME3 for the compeditive choices and Service Standards they have bought to the market for me as a consumer, but......

6 Months ago, in another thread I mentioned the following, got laughed at, flamebaited, PM´ed to death etc etc

- no good flying around half empty ´supers´ (thats the 380), economics are gonna give at some stage
- `C´ Apron at DXB is full with parked aircraft, and no, that was not the ones that are being retired!
- Reason EK is holding out on the 787/350 call/order is because they are desperatly trying to get out of some 380 commitments and this new deal is important in that regard!
- CM will dig up the dirt, my most respected friend STC will not like it, but it is a must!
- EK521 acelerated something that was already slowly creaping!

Coming back to my personal Ego, so funny reading all of this now after the sheiksstorm I got for my opinions 6 months ago!

However, I am certain they will survive this, a lot is wrong in Management, but it is not lost! I am sure they will come back. In MY HUMBLE personal opinion, a merge with FlyDubai should be considered (full merger/Integration), FZ would need to get out of a full LCC concept and the combined force could run a to me very successfull strategy simmilar to TK before the political turmoil (smaller Equipment for smaller ports to feed the main operation).
EK will snap out of this, EK will resolve this overall, of that I am certain.
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
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BobPatterson
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:07 pm

cougar15 wrote:
I have to laugh about this entire thread, but my personal Ego no longer allows me to hold my tongue. Let me set the framework first:
A: I am an absolute A380 fan.


Regardless of your peculiarities, congrats on your milestone 1,000th post. Wishing you many more..... :-)
Facts are fragile things. Treat them with care. Sources are important. Alternative facts do not exist.
 
parapente
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:39 pm

Re financial aid by Airbus or Emirates.Firstly I doubt it would be legal.But it would also be a terrible precedent to set!I do agree however that an Emirates A380 would do well from Glasgow.I guess we will just have to wait and see where they announce for 2017/8.
I do think that in the long term (2026+)they will revisit the use of 'smaller' super efficient wide bodies from DWC.There is little doubt in my mind that there are a host of smaller towns/cities that would welcome this sort of global connectivity.Furthermore it would be hard/impossible for governments to refuse them as their national airlines do not offer such connectivity to their people/business'.
Every time a new destination is added it strengthens the 'From anywhere to anywhere via Dubai' unique proposition.But for the A380 itself there can't be many more destinations in the long term I would have thought.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:40 pm

parapente wrote:
if I have understood Airbus' latest (second) statement on A380 prod and deferrals they are now planning to build 12 aircraft both this year,next and indeed going forwards.Is that correct?
If so how many are Emirates scheduled to take in 2018? 4 or 5 are going to Singapore (I believe) as their replacements.Others to other ME3?
By 2019 I think it is only Emirates on the list so I assume they are scheduled to take 12?
For certain (if not earlier -I don't think we know exactly)in 2020 the first batch of leased A380's ends so they will be removed from active service.
Clearly some A380's are being used on existing schedules as upgrades.The Man upgrade being a good example.But how many 'obvious' upgrades there are I don't know. (I guess Chicago is another)That would then leave 'X' new routes to be found.But hard to work out how many that would be.I guess you need 2 aircraft for any new daily long haul route?


http://www.abcdlist.nl/a380f/a380f.html keeps a good look forward, but doesn't have dates assigned. It shows enough work for 2017 and 2018 at 12 per year, including frames for EK, SQ, NH and QR. Moving forward it will be more of a challenge, especially if you keep in mind EK has said it does not want the last 25 frames till 2021 when DWC is supposed to open.

As for finding routes, etc, the Bloomberg article posted above reflects a cautious and somber mood, more so than we've ever had from EK:

With most viable routes already heavily served, the company has been forced to go farther afield to keep growing, pushing into ultralong-haul flights to the likes of Panama. Clark’s current mood is cautious, verging on somber: 2016 was “not a good year,” he says, and “I think ’17 could be even flatter, slightly worse.” Oil executives and bankers aren’t buying premium tickets like they used to; demand is plunging in sub-Saharan Africa; Syria, Libya, Tunisia, and, to a certain extent, even Turkey have fallen off the tourist map. These days, Emirates is as likely to reduce luxury as ramp it up. Some A380s are being flown without first class, in favor of more economy seats, and in September, Clark mused about introducing budget-carrier-style bag fees. In the airline’s last earnings announcement, in which fiscal first-half profit fell almost two-thirds, Sheikh Ahmed warned that “the bleak global economic outlook appears to be the new norm.”

More broadly, Clark concedes that Emirates’ emergence as a boundary-pushing titan of global aviation was an outcome of an era that may now be at an end. “It is true that we are a product of the multilateralism, the liberalization of trade,” he says in his office, the lazy ballet of taxiing aircraft visible on the tarmac just over his left shoulder. On his desk, he’s kept a collection of British newspapers from June 24, the day after U.K. voters rejected the liberal order by voting to leave the European Union. “But are we going back to the ’30s? No, no, no. The man, the woman in the street has been exposed to the good things, irrespective of faith, creed, gender, nationality, sexuality, it doesn’t make any difference. Everybody’s out there,” he says. “They can see the world is open to them. And I’m hoping that kind of sense will prevail. Maybe I’m just being a little bit naive, overoptimistic.” He spoke on Oct. 26, 13 days before Trump’s election.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
lancelot07
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Jan 07, 2017 1:23 pm

QuarkFly wrote:
There is no EK bubble, .....:(

And then, you name 11 reasons -most of them very sound- why it is going to happen!
 
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RayChuang
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:08 pm

Besides the access to India, people forget that Dubai is now the Islamic financial center for pretty much the entire Middle East. Just that means there will still be considerable demand to visit there, especially since the UAE have re-invented themselves from a place dependent on petroleum exports to one based on finance and goods trade, a historical Arab culture strong point. And of course, the biggest beneficiary is EK. :smile:
 
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RL777
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:04 pm

Some of the posts about this topic on the r/aviation page are laughable, supposedly a crew member told a passenger they don't see the airline operating anymore in 5 years!
 
dc10lover
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 08, 2017 1:18 am

Hint: The airline industry is a major economic indicator. ME3 growing. Global economy is growing. ME3 shrinking. The global economy is shrinking.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
ptcflyer
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:46 am

The health of the ME3 airline industry is highly correlated to the health of the total global economy. Historically, developed "free" economies had cycles. Every seven years there was a significant recession. And the world's economies seemed not to be aligned... they balanced each other out. We are 8+ years into our current global cycle, which has been propped up globally and aligned by previously unimaginable amounts of debt and money creation / low interest rates by the Central Banks. My fear is that we have exchanged and papered over cyclical risk of normal growth and recessions with a systemic risk that will present challenges on an exceptionally higher order of magnitude than we have ever experienced.

The Global economy not only depends on easy money, but the global alignment of easy monetary policy... that has us all stretched out across the tracks.... with a freight train we know is due... but we are not sure how late it is running.

Get your spread sheets out. What if, due to economic shock, travel demand fell by 20% in dollars spent and/or passenger volume? What would Emirates look like? What about a 25% drop, 35% drop? Brexit / EU Breakup, Isolationist Politics, Terrorism, Unsustainable Debts, World Health Crisis.... A train is coming... And It will be this inevitable systemic economic shock that will devastate global, highly capital intensive organizations like Emirates, etc. For now, let's tip our glasses to overflowing amounts of Krug and Caviar! We Say Hello Tomorrow... hoping, perhaps, it never comes.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:51 am

The "bubble" ain't gonna bust unless they are cooking their books and lying about their results. They have a long way they can fall at this point, what they have built is pretty amazing.
 
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QuarkFly
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:42 am

dc10lover wrote:
Hint: The airline industry is a major economic indicator. ME3 growing. Global economy is growing. ME3 shrinking. The global economy is shrinking.


Structural changes and technology making that OBE...I used to do international travel much more in the 1990's doing software work that is now done over the internet. So I believe aviation cycles do not necessarily match global economic cycles.
Always take the Red Eye if possible
 
migair54
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 08, 2017 1:48 pm

QuarkFly wrote:
BobPatterson wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
2. Protectionism: US MAGA may hit them; EU also; We saw what happened in Canada...and China will never let EK be its primary feeder.


Could you please define/explain meaning of MAGA? Online searching turned up nothing.

Thank you.


Trump's slogan: "Make America Great Again" -- involves protectionism...US airlines will beg him to stop EK and ME3 US expansion.
BTW, Sorry for not clarifying...have to combine search MAGA and Trump.


i am not sure if protecting airlines always make the country better, look at the UK for example, do you think without the ME3 airlines most of the cities could have so much pax and cargo moving from the airports outside London?? for trade and business travellers having fast options to travel is very important and sometimes local airlines can't operate certain markets and other airlines can jump in that gap and provide a much bigger benefit to the community than just protecting the airlines.

ThomasCook wrote:
Living out allowance frozen = false. Pilots and cabin crew can apply for this at any time.
Cabin crew being asked to take unpaid leave = false. They are being offered the appourtunity to take between 8 days up to 20 days in Jan/Feb. They aren't being asked to do take it.
Service cuts = false. Unless you see the removal of pre-takeoff refreshing wipes in Y/C as a cut. Nonetheless pre-arrival hot towels in Y/C are offered as always.


Cabin crew unpaid leave is true, and living out allowance is frozen for 6 months unless purchased home already, both are 100% true.

In my opinion there no bubble burst, however I do think EK has to addapt and change many things, currently Ek is having a big reorganisation internally and I think soon we will see changes outside also, hopefully for good, all the airlines do and they will always do, in my opinion is a good sign, EK can adapt and change to new objectives and challenges.
KLM, Iberia, Alitalia are good examples of how an airlines change to improve and continue in the business, even the mergers of the big airlines in the USA are a similar process.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:47 pm

On a related but different point, I'm beginning to wonder if Engine Alliance read the tea leaves accurately several months ago when they passed on additional PIP investment for A380 / EK and handed the business of the 50 frame EK A380 order to RR.

Maybe their internal analysis deemed the probability of the full order actually happening as risky and the financials didn't justify the high risk (needing higher ROR w/ higher risk).

It also begs the question, what was RR thinking? Moon shot?

Anyone?

I also tend to agree that EK's current strategy is risky. A NB model for connectivity within 6 hours to significantly more markets would be more risk adverse. Look at the geographical area Copa Airlines covers using a 737-only fleet. Also note that Copa has consistently returned the highest operating margins of all public airlines!

With Dubai being a major center of trade compared to AUH/EY and especially DOH/QR, they're uniquely positioned to dominate these sectors (more profitable O&D component)

While the 6-hour regjon of DXB tends to be large metros with sparse population in between (at least in comparison to the Americas), wide bodies and especially the largest ones in production, are just not economical in comparison to NB's. The shorter the flight, the more important frequency and scheduling are. The larger the aircraft, the higher the percentage of travel time is wasted with long boarding, deboarding, and custom/immigration queues (hour plus boarding on 300+ seat aircraft vs 30 minutes for a 180 seat). If I'm taking a 4 hour flight, I don't want it the trip the be 2 hours longer if I took a smaller because I had to wait with 499 other people instead of 179 others to go through security, queue at gate, wait in my seat for boarding to commence, wait for people to deplane, C&I line, taxi rush, etc. It can creep up to 2 hours longer trip time (not inflight) for large WB's in comparison to smaller WBs or larger NB's. The longer the stage, the less important this is.

Additionally, large WB's make it almost impossible to adjust capacity to market trends. Each step is too large and too costly. An additional 77W frequency (smallest planner at the moment) add far too many seats and operating cost.

Finally, thr WB only strategy just doesn't work from a cost perspective either. A 2-class 77W (let alone a 3 class) on a 6 hour sector provides a higher CASM (typically) than a 180 seat 2-class A321 would on the same sector. You can run 2 A321's with less overall seats and lower overall cost amid better revenue potential due to flexible frequency / schedule (I'm ignoring freight offsets in this). L

Smaller aircraft also can make more turns / hubs banks due to quicker gate turns. This means more destinations or trips per day for the same airport real estate. Also more gates can fit in the same real estate due to smaller tarmac boxes.

While FlyDubai is tackling this market space, their model is not premium or expansive enough to conquer with the dominates EK can.

I hope Monday morning quarterbacking in a couple years doesn't have us having the conversation that EK missed the boat (so to speak) with its strategy solely focusing on long haul connections and massive widebodies while ignoring the more reliable, flexible, lucrative shorter stuff.

Does it make sense to build DWC with AUH so close? Theoretically, what would happen if EK and EY operated as a metal-netural JV. How would the cost of a high speed train connecting both airports compare to build out of DWC? Egos aside, I think with creatively run split operations between AUH / DXB may have (note the may there folks) the potential to drive highest combined returns for both airlines and the best ROI for UAE as a country.
 
sevenair
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:17 pm

QuarkFly wrote:
astuteman wrote:
...I've kept out of this thread on the basis that once you respond to the ridiculous statements that get made, you become part of them
However, you asked the question ...


3. Brexit may make LHR other UK cities less important..EK will have eventual overcapacity to UK, lower yields.


When the UK already does more trade outside of the EU and is looking forward to many more global links and relationships following our decision to leave the slow growing and protectionist EU, I simply cannot see how the UK will become less important for EK. Many new relationships are being forged workwide and EK will still be needed to connect people for business. Families with international links will still need to travel. We have record employment and a strong economy despite us signalling our intention to leave the EU and the single market.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:09 pm

RayChuang wrote:
Besides the access to India, people forget that Dubai is now the Islamic financial center for pretty much the entire Middle East. Just that means there will still be considerable demand to visit there, especially since the UAE have re-invented themselves from a place dependent on petroleum exports to one based on finance and goods trade, a historical Arab culture strong point. And of course, the biggest beneficiary is EK. :smile:

Not to mention Dubai is a distribution center not only for the mid-east, but India to Europe and Europe to Southern Asia as well as much of North-East Africa.

What might impact Dubai is effective competition. For example, India developing a clearer code of law so that multi-national companies want to invest multiples more there and develop a port for 20000 teu ships (nothing small is economical through the Suez canal or off to China at today's cargo rates). Or, Ethiopia gaining a port... Or wait, there is the Somalian port of Berbera... Wouldn't surprise me to find it part of Ethiopia within 5 years.
http://www.geeskaafrika.com/26106/berbe ... liland-fm/

Dubai went from nothing to having a significant role in the global economy over the last 30 years. "Nature abhors a vacuum" and there was a vacuum for international to international connections *at a wayport*, banking & other buisness (w/hotels and foreign home ownership), and for cargo distribution.

It amazes me how many nations do not realize banning (or over-taxing/regulating) part of a business forces the whole business to located elsewhere. It is as if they haven't read Friendman's books or Bernsteins... (Much less Adam Smith).

dc10lover wrote:
Hint: The airline industry is a major economic indicator. ME3 growing. Global economy is growing. ME3 shrinking. The global economy is shrinking.

It depends on the growth of trade. But on a first order, you are right and the Global economy, in particular China (Ghad, don't they realize posting numbers as off as they do is worse than no numbers?), is contracting. But EK is certainly not the weak player. First to loose will be those without connections to fill now-empty seats. Yes, yield will drop, but a small profit is very different than a loss. :)

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
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AirIndia
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:19 am

lightsaber wrote:
But EK is certainly not the weak player. First to loose will be those without connections to fill now-empty seats. Yes, yield will drop, but a small profit is very different than a loss. :)

Lightsaber


That really does Sum up all the arguements. Times are tough for EK and other ME carriers but its not a doomsday scenario.

Lightsaber, you might as well lock the thread....
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:20 pm

China will not rest until last ME connecting passenger gets a non-stop. Doesn't matter how many $$Billions it has to spend on subsidies. Chinese passenger planes carry lot more cargo in the hold than ME. SFO data suggests 10x more. Air India proved its non-stop can do better than any six freedom connection. If a rebuilt plane and grannies with mediocre service could beat shiny brand new planes, youngest FAs with world class service, somebody is not telling the truth.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is EK bubble about to burst and what it means for Boeing and Airbus

Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:18 pm

China can fly directly to the Americas, Europe, Australia(et al), and the rest of Asia. The only China 1 stop which will compete with EK is Africa. I don't think they really are competitors. Besides, China likes their oil, and the middle east like Chinese good (including solar).
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)

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