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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:40 pm

Just got an email from TK M&S that says:
"We have prepared a special gift for you, just like we do every year. But this time, it is a surprise! We kindly ask you to update your address using the link below so that we can deliver your gift easily."
Do you know what it is? I think it might be my new EP card in a box with some other TK gift??
 
juliuswong
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Tue Jan 24, 2017 1:34 pm

Yakamoz wrote:
mafaky wrote:
Didn't take long before those aircraft found a new home.


Well, I must say that I'm happy that these frames are finally leaving the TK fleet and lessen the inconsistency inside the 332 fleet. However, I'm sceptical about the reliability of the actual source of information, the TR Fleet News. Lately they even closed their website and keep on providing info only via their facebook pages... :?:

The latest and somehow inside info I've received is a bit different: TC-JNG is still outbound to Eurowings but for some unknown reason this has been delayed since the last 6 months or so. Even the planespotters.net has marked this frame destined to Eurowings since long but this still didn't materialise. In fact, the said frame was marked for Eurowings but kept on flying for TK for two months (maybe longer) until it was finally grounded for cost cutting reasons.

Eurowings doesn't want to take the TC-JNF as this one's an older frame than the JNG: they want to take frames with MSN600 and newer... It will be hopefully returned to the lessor (GECAS), only.

As for the three Jet Airways frames: These were leased in 2014 for a 6-year period; but hopefully TK reached an agreement with them for earlier returns.

Let's wait and see for a while...


There is no delay for TC-JNG. It was planned in 2015 that this frame will leave in Q1/2017. New information is that TC-JNF could go to Eurowings too.

Newest TK fleet planning shows 1-2 B738, 6 A319 and 7 A320 leaving fleet. 2 A332 too. However about the 3 ex Jet Airways frames was decided recently, so 5 A332 leaves.

Entries this year: 3 B77W, 2 A321, 6 A333.

With the recent fleet rationalization, TK now has a more consistent in-flight product on A330-200 fleet since previously it was a mix-bag of different sources.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Tue Jan 24, 2017 4:06 pm

According to airkule.com TK cancels few SFO flights. Do we know why??
TK79/TK80 - 25 JAN 2017
TK79/TK80 - 31 JAN 2017
TK79/TK80 - 06 FEB 2017
TK79/TK80 - 14 FEB 2017
TK79/TK80 - 21 FEB 2017
TK79/TK80 - 24 FEB 2017
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:36 pm

miaintl wrote:
It appears TK is cutting back its MIA service to 5x weekly now. It will only go back to daily in peak summer months.


MIA actually going down to 4x weekly part of February.

TK787 wrote:
According to airkule.com TK cancels few SFO flights. Do we know why??


There are some random single day of week cancels planned on other US routes in February. IAD, ORD, IAH and LAX all lose a single flight some weeks.

I heard it was to create the equivalent of single additional 77W frame to allow coverage for maintenance checks. They are short of widebodies this winter. (Yes I know this sounds funny, but they do not want to reactivate the frames parked long term to cover for the checks.)
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:20 am

Thanks LAXintl for the info,
I did a quick check and out of the 33 TK 77Ws, all are flying except -JJK, -JJM, -JJP, -LJK for the last 7 days from flightradar.
Besides doing short domestic routes and occasional LHR, TLV, DXB and few other cities TK's 77W fleet are doing these routes from IST:
-JFK, ORD, MIA, SFO, LAX, IAH, ATL, YYZ, GRU/EZE, PEK, PVG, CAN, MNL, CGK, HKG, BKK, ICN, TPE and the high density BOM, DEL
 
Prost
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:27 am

I'd heard chatter that TK was interested in serving YVR or SEA. Have the unfortunate activities in Turkey put the kibbosh on these rumors?
 
leftyboarder
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:02 am

TK787 wrote:
Just got an email from TK M&S that says:
"We have prepared a special gift for you, just like we do every year. But this time, it is a surprise! We kindly ask you to update your address using the link below so that we can deliver your gift easily."
Do you know what it is? I think it might be my new EP card in a box with some other TK gift??


I am assuming it's the day planner. The funny thing is, the address in the e-mail I got was totally wrong (it was an address in Antalya) and I was surprised to see this so I logged in to see the address on their records and funny enough that was correct. Their IT apparently can'T even get this right.
 
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mafaky
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:50 am

Prost wrote:
I'd heard chatter that TK was interested in serving YVR or SEA. Have the unfortunate activities in Turkey put the kibbosh on these rumors?


TK is primarily interested im serving YVR. Turkish Authorities have been working on it since long and looks now there's some light at the end of the tunnel. But, in the case that YVR becomes impossible, it will/may be SEA.
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
stylo777
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:07 am

leftyboarder wrote:
TK787 wrote:
Just got an email from TK M&S that says:
"We have prepared a special gift for you, just like we do every year. But this time, it is a surprise! We kindly ask you to update your address using the link below so that we can deliver your gift easily."
Do you know what it is? I think it might be my new EP card in a box with some other TK gift??


I am assuming it's the day planner. The funny thing is, the address in the e-mail I got was totally wrong (it was an address in Antalya) and I was surprised to see this so I logged in to see the address on their records and funny enough that was correct. Their IT apparently can'T even get this right.

Be careful, might also be a fishing mail.
We got plenty of these in recent days from many big turkish companies including TK Cargo as well.
I would check with TK directly.
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:22 am

stylo777 wrote:
leftyboarder wrote:
TK787 wrote:
Just got an email from TK M&S that says:
"We have prepared a special gift for you, just like we do every year. But this time, it is a surprise! We kindly ask you to update your address using the link below so that we can deliver your gift easily."
Do you know what it is? I think it might be my new EP card in a box with some other TK gift??


I am assuming it's the day planner. The funny thing is, the address in the e-mail I got was totally wrong (it was an address in Antalya) and I was surprised to see this so I logged in to see the address on their records and funny enough that was correct. Their IT apparently can'T even get this right.

Be careful, might also be a fishing mail.
We got plenty of these in recent days from many big turkish companies including TK Cargo as well.
I would check with TK directly.


Well the link directed me to the TK website so I doubt it. But you're right about the increase in fishing mail lately.
 
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mafaky
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:08 am

But you're right about the increase in fishing mail lately.


Very true. Out of topic, but just as a reminder to Turkish citizens here: I've started receiving, now almost on weekly basis, fishing mails supposedly sent from the Turkish Telecom. Each mail indicates a different account number (but will not match any of my accounts with them) and indicating a past debt for a rather big amount. I don't reply to these, neither try the links included but collect these as spam/fake mails in a separate mailbox.
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:04 pm

I doubt that TK will get rights to YVR anytime soon. Also, TK earlier this year suggested that Americas/Europe will get no extra flights in 2017. On top, only 3 x 77Ws arriving this year. TK could use this extra capacity on better routes than SEA. SEA can only be done by 77Ws and takes more than 1 frame if daily. TK better focus on China/India instead of YVR/SEA for 77Ws.
About fishing emails, thanks for the heads up. I get very few junk emails from Turkey, never open them.
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:39 pm

TK787 wrote:
I doubt that TK will get rights to YVR anytime soon. Also, TK earlier this year suggested that Americas/Europe will get no extra flights in 2017. On top, only 3 x 77Ws arriving this year. TK could use this extra capacity on better routes than SEA. SEA can only be done by 77Ws and takes more than 1 frame if daily. TK better focus on China/India instead of YVR/SEA for 77Ws.
About fishing emails, thanks for the heads up. I get very few junk emails from Turkey, never open them.


Any chance of Turkey getting extra rights from India or China? I doubt it in this political climate. Japan is a bear market now and Korea is saturated. All the other Far East destinations already covered. I think they have hit the wall towards the east.
 
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:00 pm

leftyboarder wrote:

Any chance of Turkey getting extra rights from India or China? .

Not sure but what I was trying to say was for TK to concentrate its efforts and to put more pressure for India/China since there is more room to grow there then YVR/SEA. And it takes less frames to fly most of the time.
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:03 pm

If YVR is in the "waiting list", India/China (new destinations and/or increased frequencies) are on the " to dream, the impossible dream list". They can't even fly to HKG daily bcz. of the bilateral limitations. :evil:
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
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TK105
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:26 pm

I see some possibility that China Market can be unlucked when a big railway or perhaps nuclear power plant project contract is given to China. However India does not have any technology to offer for Turkey which in return Turkey can ask India to unluck its air travel market. Perhaps Turkey may be interested in Indian Space Technology but I think this is out of question as far as India is concerned due to obvious strategic reasons.
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mafaky
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:43 pm

TK105 wrote:
I see some possibility that China Market can be unlocked when a big railway or perhaps nuclear power plant project contract is given to China. However India does not have any technology to offer for Turkey which in return Turkey can ask India to unluck its air travel market. Perhaps Turkey may be interested in Indian Space Technology but I think this is out of question as far as India is concerned due to obvious strategic reasons.


China & Nuclear Plant: I guess, no way, what-so-ever!...

Big Railway Project: Theoretically possible but when, where and just for the construction of the project or also including the rolling stock??? (BTW: are you deeply familiar/interested with the various HSR projects supposedly going on in Turkey? A bit here, a bit there... Practically nothing completed as a near to full HSR line with the exception of Ankara-Konya & Ankara-Eskisehir routes...)

India: Yes, totally agree with you...

They should have got many concessions from China, when they allowed that Varyag hulk sailed/towed thru the Turkish Straits. "A floating casino"! My foot!... Haha!... 1.000.000 million Chinese tourists visiting Turkey per year! All my feet!... :mrgreen:

Besides, I'm highly sceptical about the actual O &D traffic between China & Turkey. yes the 27 weekly flights (6 for HKG) enjoy high load factors, inc. J Class but it looks to me 80% of the passengers come from transit, for the China market. Adding more frequencies and/or destinations: what will improve. China is exercising frustrating visa practice o Turkish citizens and businessmen. Sometimes they start to relax these, sometimes really pull everything very tight. At the moment it's pretty much strict, time taking and expensive even to obtain a single entry visa... And those who can afford to travel to PRC (for actual business), mostly prefer QR, EK, a bit EY & SQ and even Aeroflot for the ticket cost and free baggage allowance, over TK.

Frankly speaking: I've stopped dealing with PRC for purchases that needs pre-mass order R & D, samples etc. and switched these back to Taiwan despite of higher costs. At the least, the Taiwanese speak and understand English better and l understand about your needs it 1-2 trials, not in 5-6 trials as for the Mainland Chinese. (Well I shouldn't generalise my special field, maybe!... As my type of products can still manufactured or assembled in Taiwan, no necessary off-shore Mainland Chinese involvement...) And I can travel there visa-free, as often as I need. You may have some distant possibilities at HKG but that will not bring you the chance for a factory visit or inspection.
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:54 pm

speaking of possible new destinations for TK I remember reading a few months back that they had a plan for starting new service to MEX. I think the actual CEO of TK said that they had a plan to start MEX sometime this year. Anyone know or have info if indeed that will end up happening or because of what the country has been going through, they will just shelve such idea. They have been talking about since their plans were to open new routes to Cuba, Colombia, Venezuela and Mexico back in 2013 I think and they have open everyone of those destinations except Mexico. Wonder if we will ever really see TK in MEX or just end up being a pipe dream.
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:29 am

speaking of possible new destinations for TK I remember reading a few months back that they had a plan for starting new service to MEX. I think the actual CEO of TK said that they had a plan to start MEX sometime this year.


Despite of many difficulties, I don't think TK has totally shelved its plan to start the MEX route. Maybe it will be postponed to 2018, but I'm quite confident it will happen.

You see there are quite a number of factors involved when opening up a new route:

First, TK wants/insists to have a Turkish country manager and station manager for each destination. It goes without saying, that the country manager and station manager should be fluent in the local language(s); English-only will not suffice. Plus, naturally, aviation, airport and company experience. When BOG-PTY started (rather, when it was was underway) they had to re-locate the Spain country manager to this new post. It's indeed difficult to find Spanish speaking people (plus the other specs) in Turkey... This guy, did a lot of extracurricular homework for the recently opened HAV-CCS route, as well. And now, or starting in the future, for MEX???

It's also customary that TK starts a new long haul route with a332's. In TK's fleet there are only five (5) adequately equipped a332s (with cabin crew rest module, etc.) for such long haul routes. Right now, the thrice weekly BOG-PTY & HAV-CCS routes already utilises two of these aging frames. MEX route (whenever starts) will take up a third even for a thrice-weekly utilisation. One frame should normally kept for as spare/replacement during longish maintenances, etc.

Of course the geographical location of MEX is a problematic one, by itself. It's a highly elevated airport. a332 (or even B77W) can make it non-stop from IST at MTOW and can reach MEX; on this leg there's no problem. But these planes cannot fly back non-stop!... They have to refuel somewhere on the way back!... This has been the case in BOG-PTY (BOG is also located at a high elevation...). So TK cannot possibility (technically) start a IST-MEX-IST route. There has to be a technical stop (or preferably a commercial stop) on the way back, hence another triangular route. Most likely stop-over location may be Canjun, again in Mexico, but have so far heard no real confirmation about it...
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:40 am

mafaky wrote:
speaking of possible new destinations for TK I remember reading a few months back that they had a plan for starting new service to MEX. I think the actual CEO of TK said that they had a plan to start MEX sometime this year.


Despite of many difficulties, I don't think TK has totally shelved its plan to start the MEX route. Maybe it will be postponed to 2018, but I'm quite confident it will happen.

You see there are quite a number of factors involved when opening up a new route:

First, TK wants/insists to have a Turkish country manager and station manager for each destination. It goes without saying, that the country manager and station manager should be fluent in the local language(s); English-only will not suffice. Plus, naturally, aviation, airport and company experience. When BOG-PTY started (rather, when it was was underway) they had to re-locate the Spain country manager to this new post. It's indeed difficult to find Spanish speaking people (plus the other specs) in Turkey... This guy, did a lot of extracurricular homework for the recently opened HAV-CCS route, as well. And now, or starting in the future, for MEX???

It's also customary that TK starts a new long haul route with a332's. In TK's fleet there are only five (5) adequately equipped a332s (with cabin crew rest module, etc.) for such long haul routes. Right now, the thrice weekly BOG-PTY & HAV-CCS routes already utilises two of these aging frames. MEX route (whenever starts) will take up a third even for a thrice-weekly utilisation. One frame should normally kept for as spare/replacement during longish maintenances, etc.

Of course the geographical location of MEX is a problematic one, by itself. It's a highly elevated airport. a332 (or even B77W) can make it non-stop from IST at MTOW and can reach MEX; on this leg there's no problem. But these planes cannot fly back non-stop!... They have to refuel somewhere on the way back!... This has been the case in BOG-PTY (BOG is also located at a high elevation...). So TK cannot possibility (technically) start a IST-MEX-IST route. There has to be a technical stop (or preferably a commercial stop) on the way back, hence another triangular route. Most likely stop-over location may be Canjun, again in Mexico, but have so far heard no real confirmation about it...


I agree with all your points, and wish to add the following, as an until now frequent passenger on IST-BOG-IST, and now, since they opened it in late December, I have also flown IST-CCS: I highly doubt that these two routes, IST-BOG-PTY-IST and IST-HAV-CCS-IST, are doing even remotely well for TK. The former, while it seems to have decent loads in Y, is half empty in J, on a good day. And while I have no clue as to other markets, the fares offered in Colombia for these flights ex BOG are real bargains, for both cabins, trashing yields massively. As for my IST-CCS flight the other day, Y was at most 50% full, J had 8 PAX out of 22. I was the only J passenger flying IST-CCS, all others got off at HAV, and they were all Turkish, no transfer traffic. In general, even in Y, there seemed to be two categories of passengers: Turkish, to HAV, and Venezuelan, to CCS. We were about 20 PAX in total going to CCS, all Venezuelan, as far as I could hear in the HAV terminal during our stop there (transfer passengers have to get out there, no lounge facilities for TK J PAX yet, but the station manager told me there will be from February. Then again....for whom? - there seems to be very little traffic. ) The 10 new J PAX boarding at HAV were again all Turkish.

While I know that the HAV-CCS flight is new, and it was started (not very wisely) with a month's notice, all this indicates to me that HAV traffic is mainly Turkish beach-goers to HAV (probably low yield) and some small amount of tourist and VFR traffic to/from CCS. TK makes no effort to sell tickets in Venezuela, no campaigns that are even slightly visible, probably due to the currency issue. As far as I know, the only way to buy tickets on TK is on their website in US Dollars, and then using a foreign, non-Venezuelan credit card, which of course limits their reach in the market.

My point is that, with experiences like these from the region, TK may think twice about allocating another frame to MEX, with the operational challenges that you mentioned to add. Another issue is, if they operate MEX, which markets will they target? Turkey O/D? Africa and the Middle East, maybe India? Or again go for the bottom-of-the-barrel low yield backtrack-to-Europe market? Is there sufficient traffic out of MEX with a decent yield to Turkey, the Middle East, Africa and the Indian Subcontinent? Remember that the Far East is way shorter trans-Pacific from MEX, with direct flights offered to Japan, China and now South Korea (unlike from BOG, PTY, CCS, or HAV).

IF they start MEX, wouldn't a stop in Europe, both ways, be preferable (if they can get traffic rights), or even Casablanca, Morocco, rather than low-yielding Cancún?
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:39 pm

A333 MSN 1542 arrived at ZRH for conversion to TK standard.

Airbus A330 -343 1542 EI-FSC Intrepid Avn Partners ferried 25-26jan17 MZJ-BGR-ZRH, for Turkish Airlines ex N115NT


Image
https://twitter.com/Schmidy_87/status/8 ... 541457920/
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:52 pm

@ MalevTU134 :

I guess you have pointed out some very good points and observations. I only hope that what you have witnessed have been on the "worst days".

Let me add something, on top of what you have said:

1) I really don't know the reason(s) behind why TK ever started IST-BOG? PTY was a compulsory add on, bcz. of BOG. Looks to me it was a political pressure from the Government's end or simple obstinacy on behalf of the high management level at TK. I haven't seen much tourism traffic between Turkey and Columbia, in both directions. Maybe the powerful travel agencies (particularly in Turkey) are still on hold or sceptical... I have a close friend going to PTY once every two months or so, but he says the TK pricing is high (in Y) and still prefers to fly IB. Well mostly he has another business to attend in Spain so he combines two trips and from Spain it's a quicker hop over to PTY non-stop.

2) On the other hand Cuba is becoming a more and more attractive touristic spot for the Turks. I have been following the tour information since the last three years or so. There are 3 main agencies, organising these tours almost on monthly repeating basis. These still are not very crowded tours, say 25-30 Turks at a time. At the beginning they were using IB, but since the last 3 years they have switched exclusively on AF. I really expected to see the new TK IST-HAV flights to be used in these tours, but so far: nothing heard or seen... :cry: :?
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
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TK105
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:23 pm

TK787 wrote:
Just got an email from TK M&S that says:
"We have prepared a special gift for you, just like we do every year. But this time, it is a surprise! We kindly ask you to update your address using the link below so that we can deliver your gift easily."
Do you know what it is? I think it might be my new EP card in a box with some other TK gift??

Most probably it is your new EP Card with "Batman v Superman" logo on it. I've received it and it looks nice.

However, being sponsor for "Batman v Superman" was not a good idea at all. Now it is nominated for Razzie Awards. What a shame for TK...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/razzie-awards-batman-v-superman-zoolander-sequel-top-nominations-966654/item/razzie-nominations-announced-worst-picture-966653?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=THR%20Awards%20Alerts_2017-01-23%2005:30:00_knordyke&utm_term=hollywoodreporter_therace_alerts
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:27 pm

[/quote]
Most probably it is your new EP Card with "Batman v Superman" logo on it. I've received it and it looks nice.

[/quote]
I have one of those, but maybe a replacement card. Let's see what happens.
It seems like not a whole lot of snow at IST, and already cancelled flights helping things to be under control for today/tomorrow. What do you guys think?
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Thu Jan 26, 2017 6:03 pm

TK & PK are expanding their codeshare agreement.

The expanded agreement will allow PK to sell TK flights beyond IST to ATL, JNB, ATH, AMS, DME, MIA, BOS, IAH, IAD, LAX, SFO, and ORD with its own airline code and flight number in addition to the already existing cooperation on IST - KHI/ISB/LHE routes.

TK will market PK flights from KHI/ISB/LHE to DXB/AUH/MCT with its own airline code and flight number.

I think this benefits PK more than TK in that PK gets to utilize the codeshares for all US destinations that they do not serve.

http://www.dailysabah.com/business/2017 ... ag-carrier
 
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mafaky
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Thu Jan 26, 2017 6:27 pm

In these days TK is more after improving its load factors and the number of passengers carried, rather than biggish profits.
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:05 pm

I was looking at some fares for next week for JFK-IST, not only Y fares are above $1000, high for this time of the year, TK1 and TK2 is operated by A333 for Feb 1st-2nd, downgraded from 77W which is the usual equipment for this flight :(
 
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mafaky
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:57 pm

TK787 wrote:
I was looking at some fares for next week for JFK-IST, not only Y fares are above $1000, high for this time of the year, TK1 and TK2 is operated by A333 for Feb 1st-2nd, downgraded from 77W which is the usual equipment for this flight :(


SAVINGS! SAVINGS! SAVINGS! See what new surprises Feb/March may bring in!...

Maximise gross profits, if (at all) possible.

Reduce the number of FA on each long haul flight, wherever possible. (Can they possibly sell those crew rest bunks at a special prices for sleeping-only pax--as CN/Coffin class, since the poor cabin crews will not have much time to take rest, anyway? And if they really need or can take rest, there are those crew seats, available, in fact with a few extras!... Selling the crew rest bunks: Will be a first time ever, but I'm sure the other USA airlines will jump the wagon!...) :razz:

As mentioned beforehand, some end Jan. & Feb. SFO flights are cancelled altogether; no signs yet for March (but why not make this a tradition!?)

Finally some heads at TK, have started to understand that "frequent lovemaking will not necessarily bring too many babies!" :oops: :airplane: :grumpy:

Last but not the least: If, in one of these days, we hear the B77W economy cabins will be re-configured to 3-4-3 from the present day's 3-3-3, don't get shocked... (P.S.: This is not an inside info, YET: but just trying to de the devil's advocate...) :x :o
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:34 pm

I see TK offering great fare sales ex France to Africa, USA and Far-East.

I bet Africa pricing hurts historic Air France sales
mercure f-wtcc
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:36 pm

mafaky wrote:
1) I really don't know the reason(s) behind why TK ever started IST-BOG? PTY was a compulsory add on, bcz. of BOG. Looks to me it was a political pressure from the Government's end or simple obstinacy on behalf of the high management level at TK. I haven't seen much tourism traffic between Turkey and Columbia, in both directions. Maybe the powerful travel agencies (particularly in Turkey) are still on hold or sceptical... I have a close friend going to PTY once every two months or so, but he says the TK pricing is high (in Y) and still prefers to fly IB. Well mostly he has another business to attend in Spain so he combines two trips and from Spain it's a quicker hop over to PTY non-stop.


They launched BOG, because Colombia is a large outbound market and TK can capture a decent chunk of this thanks to its diverse destinations it can offer. In the first month of sales they rapidly sold something like 9,000 seats largely to Europe from Colombia.
Also fact that its Star Alliance hub with Avianca makes it a further bonus.

Turkish government really had zero to do with it. If you ask the Turkish government it actually want to build links with Peru especially and also somewhat with Chile these days, so it would have encourage TK into those markets instead.

Regarding PTY yes it was basically a forced stop due BOG altitude, but it still generating 30-50 customers per flight and helps being home to another Star hub. PTY in particular seems to be popular for connections to Israel, Levent region and Arabian Gulf region.
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mafaky
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:03 pm

There's a pending TK B77W delivery at Boeing, Everett. Turkish Reg. is already given: TC-LJK (and since long, as it has been included in planepotters.net data since at least for 2 or maybe even more months). This particular frame's L/N is 1462.

Now all B77W's up to #1462 have already been delivered to their prospective users, by the end of Dec. 2016. #1463 till #1469 (inclusive) have already made their respective maiden (test) flights, some in 2016 and rest in Jan 2017. In fact one of these has already been delivered to its user BR. Only TK's #1462 is seen to be nowhere, except on records. Anybody has a clue about its whereabouts?
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sat Jan 28, 2017 5:49 pm

As expected, the new POTUS has in place a travel ban from 7 countries. Looking at the numbers it doesn't seem like a big number of travelers but this will cut into TK's transit passenger numbers a bit. What do you think?
 
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mafaky
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:13 pm

TK787 wrote:
As expected, the new POTUS has in place a travel ban from 7 countries. Looking at the numbers it doesn't seem like a big number of travelers but this will cut into TK's transit passenger numbers a bit. What do you think?


I guess it may only negatively affect the Iranian passengers as far as TK is concerned. But I think USA resident Iranians, who have greencards, will be able to travel to their homeland and then come back to USA w/o any restrictions. Only Iran residents will not be able to fly to the USA... You are a FT between JFK & IST with TK: what's the percentage of Iranians on your flights?
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:34 pm

mafaky wrote:
TK787 wrote:
As expected, the new POTUS has in place a travel ban from 7 countries. Looking at the numbers it doesn't seem like a big number of travelers but this will cut into TK's transit passenger numbers a bit. What do you think?


I guess it may only negatively affect the Iranian passengers as far as TK is concerned. But I think USA resident Iranians, who have greencards, will be able to travel to their homeland and then come back to USA w/o any restrictions. Only Iran residents will not be able to fly to the USA... You are a FT between JFK & IST with TK: what's the percentage of Iranians on your flights?

It is not only the Iranians, but also pax from Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Iran is saying that it will put in place a similar ban for US citizens traveling to Iran. And so it goes. This might be a start, I wouldn't be surprised if Pakistan and others added to the list in his term. Yes I have seen many Iranians travel between LAX and IST but on the JFK-IST not that many. JFK-IST is really a mixed bunch of Eastern Europeans, Africans, Middle Easterns, Indian/Pakistanis.
Maybe LAXintl have a breakdown of transit pax by nation from US to IST.
 
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:56 pm

mafaky wrote:
But I think USA resident Iranians, who have greencards, will be able to travel to their homeland and then come back to USA w/o any restrictions.

Latest news say, a green card is no longer a guaranteed entry for those pax. AFAIK, Iranian green card holders is the biggest group out of those 7 countries and the number could be up to 150,000.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:27 am

TK787 wrote:
mafaky wrote:
TK787 wrote:
Maybe LAXintl have a breakdown of transit pax by nation from US to IST.


This is a bit old and it doesn't give you exact numbers but IKA was a top 5 feeder for each of TK's USA destinations at the time of the article.

http://www.anna.aero/2012/12/12/the-big ... ping-list/
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

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jmmadrid
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:19 am

Ok, let's speculate a bit with the IST-LAX flight using Anna Aero's data.

IST-LAX 777-300ER: 49 Business 300 Economy
Assuming a 90% Load factor: 44 Business 270 Economy
IST O&D 47%: 20 Business 127 Economy
Transfer: 53%: 24 Business 143 Economy

Using my own interpretation of Pareto (80/20); the top 5 feeders account for 80% of the business:
Top 5 feeders: 19 Business 114 Economy
Average per feeder city: 4 Business 23 Economy

Because not all 5 feeders contribute with the same number of passengers, the actual numbers could be something in the region of 3-5 Business 20-26 Economy per each feeder.
Assuming that IKA is the top feeder for LAX (they mention it first in the report), then the actual load of IKA passengers would be 5 Business 26 Economy.

26 passengers less in Economy represent approximately a 9.63% of the original 270 passengers load we started with. A massive blow, in my opinion. And this is assuming that IKA passengers travel in the same proportion in Business and Economy. If they travel primarily in Economy, the blow would be even harder.

Also, it could be even worse if Economy Load Factor is higher than Business'.

And let's not forget the blow to the IKA-IST flight, be it a 737-800 or an Airbus 321, would be in the region of 20%. To these figures we need to deduct the additional passengers that will now NOT be flying to other USA destinations. Could be 50%- 60% of the plane.

Please forgive my bold calculations and the conclusions reached. As I said at the beginning of my post, it's mere speculation with nothing scientific about it. But lacking real and accurate data, we have to start the discussion somewhere.:)

Thoughts?
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:00 pm

Speculation but seems about right, thanks.
I have to add;
-I doubt that TK's LAX load factor is 90%, more around 80-85%.
-The data is at least 5 years old, might have changed some.
-5 yrs ago TK carried 40Mpax, with 200 planes, today 62Mpax with 300+planes. The size of the TK pie is bigger, we need to figure out if IKA's size grew proportionally within that pie.
 
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mafaky
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:02 pm

These are TK's Load Factors (Passengers Carried) for North American market between 20102-2016.

2012: 82 % (1.044M)
2013: 83.6% (1.292M)
2014: 85.1% (1.572M)
2015: 82.7% (1.864M)
2016: 79.4% (2.181M)

I guess JFK and Toronto enjoy the highest LF and LAX comes the third.

It will be on the safer side, to assume average LF (say the average of last 3 years) as 80% for LAX and 84% for JFK.

The most difficult estimation is for the IST O & D/Transfer(Transit): First, only global figures are available for us; no specific figures for the North American market... Now if we take the average of the last 4 years (2013-2014) transits count for 49.10% (globally), for the last three years it rises to 51.7%, for the last two years again rises to 55.8% but for 2016 it whops up to 59%. So, I suggest to take the overall North American transit pax ratio as 55-56%, but not less, but increase these to 58 & 60% respectively, for JFK & LAX...

Can our friend jmmadrid re-do his calculations for LAX & JFK, where we should assume Iranian IKA passengers being within the top 5 five transit destinations from these two origins? Have to assume the Iran traffic remains consistent during this period.

Thankx.
A veteran Electronics & Communications Engineer from Istanbul-Turkey, highly interested in civil and military aviation.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:13 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
Ok, let's speculate a bit with the IST-LAX flight using Anna Aero's data.

IST-LAX 777-300ER: 49 Business 300 Economy
Assuming a 90% Load factor: 44 Business 270 Economy
IST O&D 47%: 20 Business 127 Economy
Transfer: 53%: 24 Business 143 Economy

Using my own interpretation of Pareto (80/20); the top 5 feeders account for 80% of the business:



I don't think the top 5 feeders are 80% of LAX-IST connections especially with all of the connections one could make in IST.
In another post about the executive order Enilria said there were 120K passengers from Iran last year to/from US = 164 PDEW.

Consider all of the ways to get to IKA from LAX - EK,QR,EY,LH,AF,BA,AZ,TK
Consider the top 10 USA metros probably get 90% of Iran traffic (surely LAX is #1) and think about about the hub airlines serving each city - the top 5 feeders may be lucky being part of a third of that service.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

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miaintl
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:36 pm

I bet the Atlanta and Houston flights are at the bottom loads wise.
 
jmmadrid
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:48 pm

Many thanks TK787 and mafaky for your feedback.
I've redone the calculations and the figures don't change much for the IST-LAX flight, it seems that the higher transfer proportion makes up for a lower load factor:
Business Class: 18 (3 to 4 transfer passengers per each top 5 feeder)
Economy Class: 115 (20 to 26 transfer passengers per each top 5 feeder.)
Given that as far as we know IKA is THE main feeder to the IST-LAX flight, it's fair to estimate its contribution to such flight at the higher end of these figures: Business 4 passengers, Economy 26 passengers.

However, the impact of these 26 non-passengers is more noticeable (10.83%) in the flight's already lower Economy Class load factor:
Capacity: 300
Load factor 80%: 240
Minus 26 IKA non-passengers: 214 (71.33%)

However, according to adamh's theory, IKA's contribution to the flight could be much lower than what these calculations suggest. I have no way to find out TK's share of the 164 PDEW. If anyone knows, we can recalculate again.

I have also calculated the impact on the IKA-IST flight.
In order to transfer from IKA to 3 USA destinations (LAX, JFK and ORD), passengers need to board the same IKA-IST flight: TK879 at 07:40 am, operated by an Airbus 321 usually with a 20/158 configuration.
26 Economy Class non-passengers to each USA destination: 26x3: 78 passengers less.
Assuming that flight also has an 80% load factor: 126 passengers
78 pax less represent 61.9% of the flight, leaving it with a total of 48 passengers (30.3% load factor).

In Business Class, 4 passengers for each of the 3 USA destinations are 12 less passengers per flight.
Assuming an 80% load factor, 16 passengers minus 12 equals only 4 passengers left. (20% load factor)

If this situation continues, we will see what happens with the 5 daily IKA-IST flights.
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:14 pm

I wonder if it makes any difference that:
-TK flies to 7 destinations in Iran, 5 in Iraq, 4 in Libya
-Other carriers like Pegasus, Atlas, IR, Libyan and others also bring transit pax to IST for TK's US flights.
 
stylo777
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:45 pm

TK787 wrote:
I wonder if it makes any difference that:
-TK flies to 7 destinations in Iran, 5 in Iraq, 4 in Libya
-Other carriers like Pegasus, Atlas, IR, Libyan and others also bring transit pax to IST for TK's US flights.

It certainly makes a difference, because many of the suggested transit passenger from Iranian, Iraqi or Syrian origin are actually originating their journey with TK from IST only (thus they would count as O&D). Their initial flights with other carriers to IST are mostly on different PNR's or they even reside in Turkey.
Nevertheless, the ones with green card or US passport are excempt from this order; therefore, the amount of offloads is much less.
I heard that on Saturday (one day after activation of order) they had "only" round about 45 offloads from US flights at TK. No info about other carriers though (BA, KL, AF, LH, etc)
 
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:50 pm

I don't have the list of top US route connection markets with me at home, but I do know its changed quite a bit in the last 5-years.

For example with growth in Africa, destinations like ADD, NBO have become top connection markets out of LAX.

At the end of the day, regardless of the ban things should balance out in the longer run. Its like yield management, if one city or market does poorly, you sell more seats from another. In otherwords, TK can focus on selling other markets outside of these restricted nations instead.
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:22 am

Turkish Airlines CEO: “no aircraft cancellation plans”:

http://atwonline.com/airlines/turkish-a ... tion-plans
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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TK787
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Re: Turkish Aviation January 2017

Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:18 pm

Please continue here:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1354399
Moderators, if you could please lock this thread. Thank you.

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