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SQ22
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Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 4:18 pm

Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here.

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1344615
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:08 pm

Regarding the following:
With the latest OAG update more reductions from Delta in the Detroit market.

With the latest OAG update more reductions from Delta in the Detroit market.

DL DTW-GSP JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3
DL DTW-LEX APR 4>3
DL DTW-SDF JUL 5>4
DL DTW-STL JUL 5>3 AUG 5>3
DL DTW-SWF APR 1.8>0.9 MAY 1.8>0.9 JUN 1.9>1.1 JUL 1.8>1.0 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0
DL DTW-YVR JUN 0.2>0.1

There are some known filing errors that show up in the weekly OAG data threads. While it is all very interesting, you have to take into consideration the accuracy and issues associated with the source data. As discussed in the weekly OAG thread, there was an issue with many of the changes in the DL Connection carriers and equipment types that showed up this week.
It appears to be that for whatever reason the DL - GoJets G7 CR7 flights are not showing up in the OAG data however the flights are still for sale.

With the latest OAG update more reductions from Delta in the Detroit market.

DL DTW-GSP JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3 - filing error/timing issue with the GoJets CR7, still showing 4x for sale
DL DTW-LEX APR 4>3 - filing error/timing issues, still shows 4x for sale
DL DTW-SDF JUL 5>4 - filing error/timing issues, still shows 4x for sale
DL DTW-STL JUL 5>3 AUG 5>3 - - filing error/timing issues, still shows 5x for sale (2 717s were swapped to GoJets CR7)
DL DTW-SWF APR 1.8>0.9 MAY 1.8>0.9 JUN 1.9>1.1 JUL 1.8>1.0 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0 - filing error/timing issues, still shows 2x weekday for sale
DL DTW-YVR JUN 0.2>0.1 - seasonal Saturday route (some years this is flown, some years its not)

So really nothing worth crying over spilled milk here.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:13 pm

YVR is going 2x on Saturday's next summer too so maybe that's a good sign, tho I believe this flight should be daily.

Most of CG7's are missed filed half of the time, you'd think that from 4>3 GSP flights they'd add a 717. I eventually see a 717 on GSP, BHM, and BTV because these flights have gained more pax not only through connection but locally as well. From what I've heard they want to cut the amount of single class cabins at DTW and introduce the A321, PDX and ATL are the only 2 for now but it'll likely spread to LGA, TPA, FLL and SLC for starters.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:14 pm

Also, where is N310DN? It came in from MIA and never left DTW.
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lavalampluva
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:34 pm

I'm not sure but I don't think the updated OAG listings don't necessarily start at the beginning of each month. They might start on the 5th or 20th or some other day.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:43 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Regarding the following:
With the latest OAG update more reductions from Delta in the Detroit market.

With the latest OAG update more reductions from Delta in the Detroit market.

DL DTW-GSP JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3
DL DTW-LEX APR 4>3
DL DTW-SDF JUL 5>4
DL DTW-STL JUL 5>3 AUG 5>3
DL DTW-SWF APR 1.8>0.9 MAY 1.8>0.9 JUN 1.9>1.1 JUL 1.8>1.0 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0
DL DTW-YVR JUN 0.2>0.1

There are some known filing errors that show up in the weekly OAG data threads. While it is all very interesting, you have to take into consideration the accuracy and issues associated with the source data. As discussed in the weekly OAG thread, there was an issue with many of the changes in the DL Connection carriers and equipment types that showed up this week.
It appears to be that for whatever reason the DL - GoJets G7 CR7 flights are not showing up in the OAG data however the flights are still for sale.

With the latest OAG update more reductions from Delta in the Detroit market.

DL DTW-GSP JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3 - filing error/timing issue with the GoJets CR7, still showing 4x for sale
DL DTW-LEX APR 4>3 - filing error/timing issues, still shows 4x for sale
DL DTW-SDF JUL 5>4 - filing error/timing issues, still shows 4x for sale
DL DTW-STL JUL 5>3 AUG 5>3 - - filing error/timing issues, still shows 5x for sale (2 717s were swapped to GoJets CR7)
DL DTW-SWF APR 1.8>0.9 MAY 1.8>0.9 JUN 1.9>1.1 JUL 1.8>1.0 AUG 1.9>1.0 SEP 1.8>1.0 - filing error/timing issues, still shows 2x weekday for sale
DL DTW-YVR JUN 0.2>0.1 - seasonal Saturday route (some years this is flown, some years its not)

So really nothing worth crying over spilled milk here.



But it should be noted a market like DTW-STL reduced from 5 mainline to 3 and 2 RJs that says a lot about the direction Delta is going in in Detroit you'd also be hard pressed to find a mainline jet between DTW and DFW or IAH guess those people have to deal with ATL if they want to fly to those places> Also keep in mind with the end of BGR service every one in the upper Midwest that needs to fly to BGR has basically been cut off or are forced to double connect.
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:57 pm

klm617 wrote:
But it should be noted a market like DTW-STL reduced from 5 mainline to 3 and 2 RJs that says a lot about the direction Delta is going in Detroit...


Huh? DTW/STL hasn't been mainline in years; just a few years ago, the route was all-Delta Connection. The fact that we got any mainline back is progress (of course, WN perpetually operates two daily 737 in the market).

I would judge DL by year-over-year, not schedule changes that essentially modifies placeholders. Consider UA, which creates schedules 12-months out almost entirely with placeholder equipment.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:39 pm

flymco753 wrote:
YVR is going 2x on Saturday's next summer too so maybe that's a good sign, tho I believe this flight should be daily.

Most of CG7's are missed filed half of the time, you'd think that from 4>3 GSP flights they'd add a 717. I eventually see a 717 on GSP, BHM, and BTV because these flights have gained more pax not only through connection but locally as well. From what I've heard they want to cut the amount of single class cabins at DTW and introduce the A321, PDX and ATL are the only 2 for now but it'll likely spread to LGA, TPA, FLL and SLC for starters.


As long as there is still significant 1 class flying in DTW and NYC, many of these markets will continue to be bridge markets to allow DCI carriers (namely 9E) to bridge crews and planes between the hubs...
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alfa164
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:52 pm

klm617 wrote:
But it should be noted a market like DTW-STL reduced from 5 mainline to 3 and 2 RJs that says a lot about the direction Delta is going in in Detroit you'd also be hard pressed to find a mainline jet between DTW and DFW or IAH guess those people have to deal with ATL if they want to fly to those places> Also keep in mind with the end of BGR service every one in the upper Midwest that needs to fly to BGR has basically been cut off or are forced to double connect.


DFW = AA hub
IAH = UA hub
STL = WN "hub"

To expect excessive mainline capacity to these markets is a pipedream.

compensateme wrote:
klm617 wrote:
But it should be noted a market like DTW-STL reduced from 5 mainline to 3 and 2 RJs that says a lot about the direction Delta is going in Detroit...


Huh? DTW/STL hasn't been mainline in years; just a few years ago, the route was all-Delta Connection. The fact that we got any mainline back is progress (of course, WN perpetually operates two daily 737 in the market).
I would judge DL by year-over-year, not schedule changes that essentially modifies placeholders. Consider UA, which creates schedules 12-months out almost entirely with placeholder equipment.

:checkmark: Unfortunately, you are trying to argue with facts to someone who has already said he/she/it "doesn't care about facts"...
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:20 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Also, where is N310DN? It came in from MIA and never left DTW.


Might be getting some work done getting outfitted with wifi.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:21 pm

DTW-MTY on Delta will switch from an E70/75 to an A319 year round eff 1FEB17. It'll be an A319 in conjunction with Aeromexico's E190.
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Puissance
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:55 pm

Isn't the YVR flight done for Alaskan cruises, primarily? Because of the Jones Act, most cruises begin or end in Canada.
 
johns624
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:30 pm

Puissance wrote:
Isn't the YVR flight done for Alaskan cruises, primarily? Because of the Jones Act, most cruises begin or end in Canada.
Many cruises begin and end in SEA. They just have to have a foreign port of call (Canada) before returning.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:52 pm

I have some predictions for 2017 and the DTW market, some are ambitious and far fetched but possible when you extrapolate data and resources. I also added potential aircraft types. Feel free to discuss.

AA adds LAX (1x 319)
NK increases presence with increased IAH service (2x 319) and year round BOS (1x 319), MSP service (1x 320).
-New service possibilities: BNA (2x 320), DAB (1x 319), AUS (1x 320), JAX (1x 320).
-Existing possibilities: PBI (1x 320), SEA (1x 321).
DL adds or announces ABQ (1x M90), ELP (1x 319), SMF (1x 320), SNA (1x 739), GEG (1x 320), YYC (2x 319), HKG (1x 350), GDL 1x 320 (or AM 1x 737), DAB (1x M80).
AS adds PDX (1x 739), SFO (1x 738), LAX (1x 739) or SAN (1x 738).
EK announces DXB (1x 772).
B6 adds MCO (1x 320) or JFK (2x E190).
LOT announces WAW (2x weekly 788).
DY announces LGW (1x weekly 788), CDG (1x weekly 788), AMS (1x weekly 788), BCN (1x weekly 788), CPH (2x weekly 788), or OSL (2x weekly 788).
F9 adds TPA, (3x weekly winter 319) LAS (1x 320).
G4 closes FNT or TOL, adds PIE (320), SFB (M80), PGD (320), JAX (M80), MSY (M80), AUS (320), AZA (M80), LAS (320).
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:41 pm

compensateme wrote:

Huh? DTW/STL hasn't been mainline in years; just a few years ago, the route was all-Delta Connection. The fact that we got any mainline back is progress (of course, WN perpetually operates two daily 737 in the market).


I fly that route six times a year, or more, usually on DL. I don't recall ever flying on RJs in both directions. I have flown it on 717s, A319s and MD88/90 before. The CRJ-900 is the common RJ on the flight. From what I've seen. This February I'm booked on a CRJ-900 to STL and 717 to DTW.

I have been flying that route since 2000. NW usually had DC-9s (10/30/40/50) on the route but I flew the A319 a couple times. Sometimes the they had XJ ARJ-85s on the route, which was great. F in the ARJ was great. I loved those four engines. They also flew the CRJ-200 and later 900 on the route.

I sometimes fly WN on the route depending the schedule. The two carriers are competitive on the route. I used to like flying WN when they still had the 737-200 on that route; I liked the club seating.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:22 am

flymco753 wrote:
DL adds or announces ABQ (1x M90), ELP (1x 319), SMF (1x 320), SNA (1x 739), GEG (1x 320), YYC (2x 319), HKG (1x 350), GDL 1x 320 (or AM 1x 737), DAB (1x M80).
Wow, add TUS to this list, PDEW is nearly 100 for every quarter since 2015, DL could do it daily on a 319 no problem, the trend for TUS also is growth from historical data.

SMF PDEW is averaging about 155-160 without a nonstop flight, DL dropped it in the past, sometimes you hope for the best but DL probably wont do it. ABQ also averages about 90 each way and the numbers continue to improve. ELP averages mid 90's too, so the numbers are good for a nonstop with feed. These are all routes DL can do, I really can't see many other airlines wanting to do them besides NK and that's a long shot.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:40 am

flymco753 wrote:
I have some predictions for 2017 and the DTW market, some are ambitious and far fetched but possible when you extrapolate data and resources. I also added potential aircraft types. Feel free to discuss.

AA adds LAX (1x 319)
NK increases presence with increased IAH service (2x 319) and year round BOS (1x 319), MSP service (1x 320).
-New service possibilities: BNA (2x 320), DAB (1x 319), AUS (1x 320), JAX (1x 320).
-Existing possibilities: PBI (1x 320), SEA (1x 321).
DL adds or announces ABQ (1x M90), ELP (1x 319), SMF (1x 320), SNA (1x 739), GEG (1x 320), YYC (2x 319), HKG (1x 350), GDL 1x 320 (or AM 1x 737), DAB (1x M80).
AS adds PDX (1x 739), SFO (1x 738), LAX (1x 739) or SAN (1x 738).
EK announces DXB (1x 772).
B6 adds MCO (1x 320) or JFK (2x E190).
LOT announces WAW (2x weekly 788).
DY announces LGW (1x weekly 788), CDG (1x weekly 788), AMS (1x weekly 788), BCN (1x weekly 788), CPH (2x weekly 788), or OSL (2x weekly 788).
F9 adds TPA, (3x weekly winter 319) LAS (1x 320).
G4 closes FNT or TOL, adds PIE (320), SFB (M80), PGD (320), JAX (M80), MSY (M80), AUS (320), AZA (M80), LAS (320).


I wonder if G4 would consider going for DTW without closing TOL/FNT. Both of those cities are the perfect model city for G4, with little commercial service by other carriers, allowing G4 to operate a few routes 2x/week for cheap fares. I think that G4 could start some interesting routes like VPS/MYR/SAV from DTW, in addition to typical routes like SFB/PIE/PGD.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:51 am

cvgComair wrote:
I think that G4 could start some interesting routes like VPS/MYR/SAV from DTW, in addition to typical routes like SFB/PIE/PGD.
Everyone I ask that I know that flies Allegiant goes to FNT or TOL, when I'm up in the area I've been seeing commercials advertising Allegiant service, they don't say which airport but it's advertised and there's a decent customer base from the area that uses them, so I could see it happening, PIE especially. PDEW for JAX and MYR is pretty large for the amount of service that is offered, 1x CR9 on DL to JAX and 1x NK 320 1x DL CR7 for MYR. Both of them can work. I guess we'll see what happens, it's not impossible though.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:24 am

falstaff wrote:
compensateme wrote:

Huh? DTW/STL hasn't been mainline in years; just a few years ago, the route was all-Delta Connection. The fact that we got any mainline back is progress (of course, WN perpetually operates two daily 737 in the market).


I fly that route six times a year, or more, usually on DL. I don't recall ever flying on RJs in both directions. I have flown it on 717s, A319s and MD88/90 before. The CRJ-900 is the common RJ on the flight. From what I've seen. This February I'm booked on a CRJ-900 to STL and 717 to DTW.

I have been flying that route since 2000. NW usually had DC-9s (10/30/40/50) on the route but I flew the A319 a couple times. Sometimes the they had XJ ARJ-85s on the route, which was great. F in the ARJ was great. I loved those four engines. They also flew the CRJ-200 and later 900 on the route.

I sometimes fly WN on the route depending the schedule. The two carriers are competitive on the route. I used to like flying WN when they still had the 737-200 on that route; I liked the club seating.
Yep, used to fly this route a lot in the 2005-2011 timeframe. NW typically flew with with all DC-9-10/30/40/50 like mentioned. They started using the ARJ and 319 on occassion but it was mostly DC-9. Once the ARJ went away, occasionally a CRJ-200 would show-up on a flight or two. STL was a bridge city for a while for CRJ-200s between DTW, MSP, MEM. Post-merger it was common to have a mix of mainline and DCI - a lot of CR7, CR9 aircraft plus some MD88 and A319/A320s.

This summer MSP-STL sees the biggest increase, going all mainline with 717, MD-88, & MD-90s. This route used to commonly see a lot of CRJ, ARJ, DC-9 with NW, then a mix of of Connection carriers/aircraft as well.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:30 am

I wouldn't expect any of that stuff on DL to happen in 2017. Almost every single one of those involves hub overflying on relatively long and thin routes.
SMF and SNA have been flown before and dropped
ELP, TUS, ABQ are all small markets from DTW that are too far long/thin to use mainline aircraft
YYC in theory could be a summer seasonal, but they can easily just add capacity and pick-up the connection traffic over MSP

The reality is that in the context of the network, these routes are better flown from closer hubs or where DL chooses to route over a much larger hub like ATL.


This reads more like a wish-list / hope/prayer than any sort of true prediction. More like throwing darts on the wall.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:57 am

I think it would be interesting and telling to see how many markets are only served over Detroit verses the other hubs in the Delta network to further give evidence that Detroit is rock bottom as far as hub priority in the Delta network.

These come to mind.

ERI
SWF
ELM
ITH
SCE
NGO
BGM
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:13 am

I predict in 2017 that DL announces the draw-down and closure of the DTW hub scheduled to take effect in early 2018. All that will remain is hub and focus city flights and maybe an AMS flight.

You heard it here first.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:18 am

klm617 wrote:
I think it would be interesting and telling to see how many markets are only served over Detroit verses the other hubs in the Delta network to further give evidence that Detroit is rock bottom as far as hub priority in the Delta network.

These come to mind.

ERI
SWF
ELM
ITH
SCE
NGO
BGM
APN, CIU, ESC.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:19 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I predict in 2017 that DL announces the draw-down and closure of the DTW hub scheduled to take effect in early 2018. All that will remain is hub and focus city flights and maybe an AMS flight.

You heard it here first.
Jokes on you my friend. XD
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:33 am

I predict DL pulls the DTW hub before they start flying DTW-ELP or DTW-ABQ.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:44 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I predict in 2017 that DL announces the draw-down and closure of the DTW hub scheduled to take effect in early 2018. All that will remain is hub and focus city flights and maybe an AMS flight.

You heard it here first.


It may take a bit longer than that but reductions will continue a little at a time in favor of ATL,SLC,SEA and MSP you can count on that. I am sure you can see slowly international traffic is being diverted away from Detroit with the extra AMS-SLC/MSP and ICN-ATL flights this will further reduce the transfer passengers over Detroit.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:28 am

No big bad DL is out to get DTW, MSP, and SLC. All will have all hub feed reduced and international traffic removed by 2025. All to be reduced to focus cities at best.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:30 am

Can we open the DTW butthurt thread part 5 please?
 
alfa164
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:34 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I predict in 2017 that DL announces the draw-down and closure of the DTW hub scheduled to take effect in early 2018. All that will remain is hub and focus city flights and maybe an AMS flight.
You heard it here first.


:lol: I wish we had heard it from you first! Actually, we keep hearing it... over and over... from the poster-who-should-not-be-named...

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I predict in 2017 that DL announces the draw-down and closure of the DTW hub scheduled to take effect in early 2018. All that will remain is hub and focus city flights and maybe an AMS flight.
You heard it here first.

It may take a bit longer than that but reductions will continue a little at a time in favor of ATL,SLC,SEA and MSP you can count on that. I am sure you can see slowly international traffic is being diverted away from Detroit with the extra AMS-SLC/MSP and ICN-ATL flights this will further reduce the transfer passengers over Detroit.


...and the poster-who-should-not-be-named actually took you seriously... :roll:
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:27 am

falstaff wrote:
I fly that route six times a year, or more, usually on DL. I don't recall ever flying on RJs in both directions. I have flown it on 717s, A319s and MD88/90 before. The CRJ-900 is the common RJ on the flight. From what I've seen. This February I'm booked on a CRJ-900 to STL and 717 to DTW...


You're right, DTW/STL has been split across mainline/Connection for awhile, but there have been some short, seasonal periods in which the route has been operated entirely by Connection.

DTW/STL appears to be one of the routes DL's giving a hair cut to this year; if flown as is (unlikely), the summer schedule will represent the lowest peak day seats in the market since the 1980. Granted, it's not a major decrease from last year - and the schedule will likely change multiple times.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
No big bad DL is out to get DTW, MSP, and SLC...


This might not be the most appropriate time to mention this, but in this month's Sky magazine, the ATL terminal map takes up a whole page whereas DTW, MSP & SLC have been shrunk to fit on the same page. You need a magnifying glass just to read the maps :).
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alfa164
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:58 am

compensateme wrote:
This might not be the most appropriate time to mention this, but in this month's Sky magazine, the ATL terminal map takes up a whole page whereas DTW, MSP & SLC have been shrunk to fit on the same page. You need a magnifying glass just to read the maps :).


That proves it! That sky is falling in Detroit! :hissyfit:

And, apparently, in MSP and Slc, too...
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drdisque
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:46 am

NW/DL has operated DTW-SNA in the past - the 739 can't get out of SNA without taking a huge weight restriction. If it were to come back it would be on an A319 or 73G (probably an A319 considering how few 73G's DL has).

NK has flown DTW-PBI in the past. It's a lousy market that DL doesn't even care about and would just cannibalize their own DTW-FLL. If anyone were to start it, it would be F9.

I can see AS adding LAX or SFO once the integration with VX is more complete, I don't think in 2017. SFO is an interesting proposition with UA entering DTW-SFO this year. UA will try to grab market share but also don't push too hard on driving yields down on most routes where they only compete with another legacy carrier.

DTW-BNA is already arguably overserved. If NK were to enter BNA, it would probably be to DFW, IAH, or FLL before DTW.

If DAB were added, it would be E-175.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:12 am

NW flew SNA in the late 1990s with 320 and switched to 319 once they were on property; service ended in the early 2000s. DL "moved" CVG-SNA to DTW post-merger, but the flight (operated with the 319) didn't last a year.

I'm in Cost Mesa/Irvine once a month and would love to see nonstop service -- my last three trips to LAX took the rental car shuttle nearly an hour to be dropped off at T5/6 (they're blaming it on the decision to allow Uber drivers direct access to the terminals) and that time adds up.

While DTW-SNA last operated during the height of the local economic melt down, I just don't see the route returning: ATL and MSP are low-frequency, and DL has gotten way more ATL-centric in the past 7 years. DL would probably want 50%+ local traffic to restart it and that isn't happening.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:36 am

This might not be the most appropriate time to mention this, but in this month's Sky magazine, the ATL terminal map takes up a whole page whereas DTW, MSP & SLC have been shrunk to fit on the same page. You need a magnifying glass just to read the maps :).


You my that is funny but I noticed too that the last couple of times I've flown that the DTW terminal map in the Sky magazine isn't even in the first couple pages it's buried like on the 4th or 5th page while all the other hubs were more or less up front. Yes I notice things like that too. Your number 2 or 3 hub in your system and you burry it in with other less significant airports in the system says a lot.
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johns624
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:48 pm

This thread just keeps getting funnier and funnier. For months, we've had to listen toe klm talk about how DL wants to keep DTW to itself in conjunction with the WCAA. Now all of a sudden, because of a farcical post by someone else, DL is going to shut down DTW. Then, he admits that DTW is DL's second hub but uses as proof of the downsizing a concourse map in a magazine. He even concedes that the map for DTW is the same size as the ones for MSP and SLC, the cities that he's terrified are taking DTW's traffic. Pathetic.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:20 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I wouldn't expect any of that stuff on DL to happen in 2017. Almost every single one of those involves hub overflying on relatively long and thin routes.
SMF and SNA have been flown before and dropped
ELP, TUS, ABQ are all small markets from DTW that are too far long/thin to use mainline aircraft
YYC in theory could be a summer seasonal, but they can easily just add capacity and pick-up the connection traffic over MSP

The reality is that in the context of the network, these routes are better flown from closer hubs or where DL chooses to route over a much larger hub like ATL.


This reads more like a wish-list / hope/prayer than any sort of true prediction. More like throwing darts on the wall.
I understand that some of the routes aren't added to protect another like DTW-YHZ would negatively effect NYC's service so they don't add it to protect it, but instances like ELP, ABQ, and TUS where a daily flight on a 319 or 320 is feasible and wouldn't burn ATL's or MSP's service to those cities, than why not add it? I understand SMF and SNA have been flown but utilization of the right aircraft and a well timed flight can make it work.
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:29 pm

Some random notes, just to change the direction of this thread:

-- DL's recent schedule change solves the mystery as to where the 321 operating DTW/PDX this summer is coming from: it's ATL, not MCO; two A321 will operate evening ATL-DTW departures and morning DTW-ATL returns, with one RON and the other operating DTW-PDX-DTW.

-- The 763 scheduled on DTW/SFO this summer has pulled. ATL-SLC-HNL-SLC-ATL, ATL-ANC-ATL and ATL-SFO (yes, just one direction) are the 763A flights currently loaded.

-- AA rolled forward its schedule, maintaining three mainline flights (all MD-80) on DTW/ORD through the spring.

-- UA will continue to operate 6-7 peak day mainline flights, which is consistent with their strategy to increase domestic capacity in select markets. Just a few years ago, the merged UA briefly offered no mainline service into DTW. Currently DEN gets 2x and ORD 4x-5x; in late winter, UA goes back to its early fall schedule in which DEN gets 2x, ORD 2x, EWR 1x and IAH 1x. The return of mainline to EWR -- with a mixture of 737 equipment -- is really interesting, since UA isn't reducing frequency. I put myself on the mainline flights three times last year (two outbound, one inbound) -- one was a 73G, the other two 739; none of the flights had more than 50 people. It was interesting flying in an empty 739! Not sure the rationale...
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:51 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I understand that some of the routes aren't added to protect another like DTW-YHZ would negatively effect NYC's service so they don't add it to protect it, but instances like ELP, ABQ, and TUS where a daily flight on a 319 or 320 is feasible and wouldn't burn ATL's or MSP's service to those cities, than why not add it? I understand SMF and SNA have been flown but utilization of the right aircraft and a well timed flight can make it work.


ABQ peaks at 1xMSP, 3xATL.
ELP peaks at 3xATL. There is no service to MSP and even SLC was discontinued awhile ago.
TUS peaks at 2xATL. There's only seasonal service to MSP.

None of these are candidates for service from DTW. Consider that before F9 entered DTW/PHX, DL had reduced the route to 3x daily, with a fourth frequency limited to the weeks surrounding spring break, the peak summer stretch and a few days surrounding the year-end Holidays -- and outside the spring break flights, the lion's share were operated with A320. DL brought back the fourth frequency, but AA has since dropped their's.

And this is the first time since the early 2000s that DTW has had daily service to CUN this summer (generally 1x-3x per week) -- the traffic's there but DL route planners masturbate at the prospects of hourly ATL/CUN service. Not unsurprisingly, the addition of DTW/CUN this summer coincides with a reduction in frequency on ATL/CUN (don't feel bad for ATL, they still get a minimum of six flights ... and I wouldn't be surprised if DTW is ultimately whacked). We like to take a 4-day all-inclusive at least once every summer; CUN is a short flight but connecting can be tiresome.
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lavalampluva
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:22 pm

Airlines have a reason behind picking routes. Airlines fly routes and start new service because they feel it makes them money. If it doesn't they trim it back or cut it entirely. DL does NOT have anything against DTW! Why would they hate DTW? If they did why then do they still fly all those international routes from DTW? They could just pack them all up and move them to SEA or MSP.

Maybe AB, NH, OK, or SK (just to name a few) don't fly into DTW because it doesn't fit their needs!

I'm not trying to feed the troll, but I feel like I am. But honestly I'm tired of the sky is falling on Detroit threads :roll:
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alfa164
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:03 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
Airlines have a reason behind picking routes. Airlines fly routes and start new service because they feel it makes them money. If it doesn't they trim it back or cut it entirely. DL does NOT have anything against DTW! Why would they hate DTW? If they did why then do they still fly all those international routes from DTW? They could just pack them all up and move them to SEA or MSP.
Maybe AB, NH, OK, or SK (just to name a few) don't fly into DTW because it doesn't fit their needs!
I'm not trying to feed the troll, but I feel like I am. But honestly I'm tired of the sky is falling on Detroit threads :roll:

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: Absolutely! I know it is hard to believe, but airline route planners know more than the typical poster on A.net. And any plans they make don't come to fruition in a matter of moments; it takes months (and maybe years) analysis, planning, and preparation.

There are still some here who think airlines should be a charity, and provide cheap, convenient service to some specific route... which just happens to be the route where they want to go on some time like... maybe Spring Break. Well, if you want an airline to operate like a charity, you'd better make a big - a very bigly - donation. Or start your own airline... let's see how long that lasts...
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johns624
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:44 pm

As much as a certain poster tries to say that it is about lower fares, I think that what he really wants is new tails in DTW. He's sick of blue/red. Even if another airline is metal-neutral, like KLM or VS, he wants it instead of DL.
 
BDL757
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:18 pm

 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:20 pm

compensateme wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I understand that some of the routes aren't added to protect another like DTW-YHZ would negatively effect NYC's service so they don't add it to protect it, but instances like ELP, ABQ, and TUS where a daily flight on a 319 or 320 is feasible and wouldn't burn ATL's or MSP's service to those cities, than why not add it? I understand SMF and SNA have been flown but utilization of the right aircraft and a well timed flight can make it work.


ABQ peaks at 1xMSP, 3xATL.
ELP peaks at 3xATL. There is no service to MSP and even SLC was discontinued awhile ago.
TUS peaks at 2xATL. There's only seasonal service to MSP.

None of these are candidates for service from DTW. Consider that before F9 entered DTW/PHX, DL had reduced the route to 3x daily, with a fourth frequency limited to the weeks surrounding spring break, the peak summer stretch and a few days surrounding the year-end Holidays -- and outside the spring break flights, the lion's share were operated with A320. DL brought back the fourth frequency, but AA has since dropped their's.

And this is the first time since the early 2000s that DTW has had daily service to CUN this summer (generally 1x-3x per week) -- the traffic's there but DL route planners masturbate at the prospects of hourly ATL/CUN service. Not unsurprisingly, the addition of DTW/CUN this summer coincides with a reduction in frequency on ATL/CUN (don't feel bad for ATL, they still get a minimum of six flights ... and I wouldn't be surprised if DTW is ultimately whacked). We like to take a 4-day all-inclusive at least once every summer; CUN is a short flight but connecting can be tiresome.
I'm sure DAB could happen at the least on an M88, it wouldn't put a dent in ATL's service, you're right about these not being candidates, but the PDEW is there. Some markets have shown an increase of service because of demand, BNA is my favorite example in this situation, I don't know why. DL has planned 6x daily next summer on all mainline, an increase from 2x RJ's and 3x mainline previously, even than the frequency is still 5x at that point. DL has also done some increases from CRJ's to larger regional aircraft like BHM, ALB, GSP, BTV and what not. We'll see what the future holds, it's probably likely that the increase of service will come from other carriers.
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reasonable
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:16 pm

The 9/27 crosswind runways are in use today at DTW
 
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compensateme
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:04 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I'm sure DAB could happen at the least on an M88, it wouldn't put a dent in ATL's service, you're right about these not being candidates, but the PDEW is there. Some markets have shown an increase of service because of demand, BNA is my favorite example in this situation, I don't know why. DL has planned 6x daily next summer on all mainline, an increase from 2x RJ's and 3x mainline previously, even than the frequency is still 5x at that point. DL has also done some increases from CRJ's to larger regional aircraft like BHM, ALB, GSP, BTV and what not. We'll see what the future holds, it's probably likely that the increase of service will come from other carriers.


DL's stagnant at DTW. While BNA is planned at all-mainline this summer, equipment size has shrunk, and the overall effect will be a slight decrease in capacity (last year the route operated CR7, 2x717, 319, 2x738; this year it's planned at 5x717, M88). And yes, places like LAN, MBS, BHM, ALB, GSP and BTV will see two-cabin regional jets, but this a derivative of the declining 50-seat fleet. As sexy as two-cabin jets are, places like LAN, MBS, PVD, MHT, MDW, etc. had significantly more capacity several years ago when they were operating as 8xCRJ. That's not to say DL's network reallocation is a bad thing -- these places operated at 8xCRJ primarily because DL had so many 50-seaters to begin with, and it was more economical to route the jets via DTW than ATL, I'm just pointing out what's going on.

Nor do I see DAB as a viable market for DL as there's absolutely no premium traffic in the market; it's much more beneficial (for DL) to route traffic to MCO on 753 or via ATL directly to DAB. DAB is targeting DTW service via an incentive package, but IMO NK would be a more logical candidate to pursue it.

IMO, in the near future, growth at DTW will be driven by NK, F9 and UA (the latter of which seems to be attempting to rebuild its market position at DTW). It's somewhat upsetting that the local community failed to support WN, whose enplanements have remained stagnant here for two decades.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:19 pm

Are they using the 27's for arrivals and shooting departures only off 22R?
 
A332DTW
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:38 pm

My anticipation long-term is development of a small cargo hub. There is enough open land to accommodate this. In fact the master plan, along with the "aerotropolis" vision I assume, plans for some sort of cargo facility development between 22R/4L and 22L/4R. Yes master plans are not etched in stone but I'd say it's possible in 10-20 years, depending on growth and economic changes of course.
 
dtw9
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:54 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Are they using the 27's for arrivals and shooting departures only off 22R?


They were running arrivals and departures all day on the 27's. Switched to the 21/22's around 5:30. Some Heavies departed off 22L as needed
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:09 am

johns624 wrote:
As much as a certain poster tries to say that it is about lower fares, I think that what he really wants is new tails in DTW. He's sick of blue/red. Even if another airline is metal-neutral, like KLM or VS, he wants it instead of DL.



Metal neutral in the cooperate sense but not as far as the customer experience goes. Give a European carrier over Delta anytime as the European service has always been a notch above the US carriers. It all about market identity why do you think all the JV partners serve ATL because they want those foreign customers who identify with the KL, VS and AF brand to flow over ATL rather than DTW which is more convenient and less out of the way for most of the USA than ATL except for may Florida and the Southeastern US but it's not about passenger convince it's about ATL and let's face it most of those international routes out of ATL couldn't stand on their own without feed from the connecting flights. I'm all about customer choice as airlines are in the service sector and should operate as such not as huge corporations under the protection of consolidation to deliver a take it or leave it product with little or no choice to the customer.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 4

Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:55 pm

So nobody gets excited, WN adds no DTW flights in their schedule extension.
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