cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:36 am

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
There was a fire in the tunnel at ATL today, power went out. Looks like there were some diversions to CVG, most notably a 764 from LHR. It looks like ATL is going to be closed for a little while, I imagine all of DL's hubs are going to be a mess tomorrow.


If anything, this incident in ATL is a good example of why DL should build up their CVG hub again. Not back to the 600+ flights it had in 2005, but around 275-300 flights (a little bigger than SLC). At 1,000+ flights, ATL is simply too big, they need to cut back there. CVG is a better reliever than DET because it is more centrally located and closer to ATL.

If hypothetically DL decided to do this, would they need to build that Concourse D that was proposed in the 2025 master plan? Or would Concourse B be sufficient for a 275-300 flight operation?

While I would say this has almost 0% chance of happening, I think it is kind of interesting, so I will attempt to answer (this is going to be very long BTW...)

One of the most common misconceptions on this site (and in general) is DTW/CVG overlap and DL shifted the capacity to DTW. In reality, DTW has shrunk post merger. CVG and ATL really served the same flows, and as DL parked the RJ's from CVG, DL brought in new mainline planes to replace the RJ's at ATL, thus shifting the pax flows from CVG to ATL. Essentially, ATL absorbed CVG, not DTW/MSP/etc (ATL also absorbed MEM/DFW btw). DL's daily flights have not changed much over the last few decades, but passengers counts are way up because practically every flight that was on an RJ at ATL is now going on MD88's/B737's/B757's/A320's. Even if DL decided to do this, it is not as simple as shifting capacity from ATL to CVG.

Essentially DL took a CRJ from CVG, a CRJ from DFW, a CRJ from ATL, and a CRJ from MEM, combining it into a A320/B737 from ATL. This is way oversimplified, but it gives a pretty good overview of the shift over the past decade or so. There is a reason DL has the fewest RJ's of the US3, they were able to eliminate them because of this shifting. As a result, it would be quite difficult for them to spread out capacity between hubs.

Back to your question, I actually find it interesting, because if you remember back to the MEM closure days, DL insisted MEM would stay (and it was assumed CVG was already on its way out) to be a small reliever hub for ATL with about 150-250 daily flights. So, DL themselves actually publicly admitted that they should have some kind of reliever for ATL. However, as we all know, a major hub in a city with a 1 million population just doesn't work, so MEM went. CVG has sat just under 100 flights since it does have a population to support a mini-hub from O&D.

I am not going to argue either way wether DL should build CVG up a little, there are pluses and minuses to both options. IMO, though, if they were going to do it, they would have already done it. DL knows that ATL is a mess waiting to happen when something fails, however, my guess is that they have calculated the other 350+ days where they transport 80+ million pax a year efficiently outweigh the half-a-dozen days they have to shut everything down.

-----

Ignoring all that, lets assume DL has made the decision to build back CVG up, what would happen?

First, DL would take back all of Concourse B. The concourse can be configured for up to 39 gates when they add the RJ loading ramps, see the map below:
Image

That gives 19 mainline gates and 20 RJ gates, which should allow for ~200 daily flights depending on the size of banks (only ~35 flights could be on the ground at one time, so definitely not the most efficient connecting hub). So, they would probably need more gates, but in theory, DL could make it work with minimal investment. If they wanted to have more flights per bank, B could be expanded in both directions and A could be expanded to the west, giving quite a few more gates. Concourse D was included in the unlikely event CVG grew close to ATL's size (800 daily flight range).
 
WWads
Posts: 324
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:18 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:24 am

How doable would a 35X-type operation be at CVG, hypothetically speaking?
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:34 am

WWads wrote:
How doable would a 35X-type operation be at CVG, hypothetically speaking?

DL used one very briefly after Concourse C closed, they had shuttle busses loading from gate A2 going to Terminal 1, the Delta hangar, and Concourse C gates 60-74. The busses pulled up the plane, loaded/unloaded the pax for the particular flight and repeated. It only lasted a few months to handle peak evening flows, but DL made a large cut pretty quickly after C was closed, so it was not needed for long. It could totally be done if it was needed, especially with the deice/RON apron space where T1/T2/Concourse C used to be.

Looking at it, this was when DL had Concourse A and B, running 240 flights/day. So, from above, I don't think they could run 250 daily flights with just B, they would need to build more gates or have remote shuttles, unless of course they made smaller and more frequent banks.
Last edited by cvgComair on Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:43 am

cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
There was a fire in the tunnel at ATL today, power went out. Looks like there were some diversions to CVG, most notably a 764 from LHR. It looks like ATL is going to be closed for a little while, I imagine all of DL's hubs are going to be a mess tomorrow.


If anything, this incident in ATL is a good example of why DL should build up their CVG hub again. Not back to the 600+ flights it had in 2005, but around 275-300 flights (a little bigger than SLC). At 1,000+ flights, ATL is simply too big, they need to cut back there. CVG is a better reliever than DET because it is more centrally located and closer to ATL.

If hypothetically DL decided to do this, would they need to build that Concourse D that was proposed in the 2025 master plan? Or would Concourse B be sufficient for a 275-300 flight operation?

While I would say this has almost 0% chance of happening, I think it is kind of interesting, so I will attempt to answer (this is going to be very long BTW...)

One of the most common misconceptions on this site (and in general) is DTW/CVG overlap and DL shifted the capacity to DTW. In reality, DTW has shrunk post merger. CVG and ATL really served the same flows, and as DL parked the RJ's from CVG, DL brought in new mainline planes to replace the RJ's at ATL, thus shifting the pax flows from CVG to ATL. Essentially, ATL absorbed CVG, not DTW/MSP/etc (ATL also absorbed MEM/DFW btw). DL's daily flights have not changed much over the last few decades, but passengers counts are way up because practically every flight that was on an RJ at ATL is now going on MD88's/B737's/B757's/A320's. Even if DL decided to do this, it is not as simple as shifting capacity from ATL to CVG.

Essentially DL took a CRJ from CVG, a CRJ from DFW, a CRJ from ATL, and a CRJ from MEM, combining it into a A320/B737 from ATL. This is way oversimplified, but it gives a pretty good overview of the shift over the past decade or so. There is a reason DL has the fewest RJ's of the US3, they were able to eliminate them because of this shifting. As a result, it would be quite difficult for them to spread out capacity between hubs.

Back to your question, I actually find it interesting, because if you remember back to the MEM closure days, DL insisted MEM would stay (and it was assumed CVG was already on its way out) to be a small reliever hub for ATL with about 150-250 daily flights. So, DL themselves actually publicly admitted that they should have some kind of reliever for ATL. However, as we all know, a major hub in a city with a 1 million population just doesn't work, so MEM went. CVG has sat just under 100 flights since it does have a population to support a mini-hub from O&D.

I am not going to argue either way wether DL should build CVG up a little, there are pluses and minuses to both options. IMO, though, if they were going to do it, they would have already done it. DL knows that ATL is a mess waiting to happen when something fails, however, my guess is that they have calculated the other 350+ days where they transport 80+ million pax a year efficiently outweigh the half-a-dozen days they have to shut everything down.

-----

Ignoring all that, lets assume DL has made the decision to build back CVG up, what would happen?

First, DL would take back all of Concourse B. The concourse can be configured for up to 39 gates when they add the RJ loading ramps, see the map below:
Image

That gives 19 mainline gates and 20 RJ gates, which should allow for ~200 daily flights depending on the size of banks (only ~35 flights could be on the ground at one time, so definitely not the most efficient connecting hub). So, they would probably need more gates, but in theory, DL could make it work with minimal investment. If they wanted to have more flights per bank, B could be expanded in both directions and A could be expanded to the west, giving quite a few more gates. Concourse D was included in the unlikely event CVG grew close to ATL's size (800 daily flight range).


Interesting. I didn't know how DTW shrank and how ATL absorbed MEM, CVG and DFW! That's pretty bad if you ask me. I never understood why they kept both DTW and MSP, especially in light of their decision to build up SEA. One of them (preferably DTW) should probably be dismantled since they both are pretty redundant.

It is pretty clear they need a reliever hub for ATL traffic flow, and the only logical place is CVG. Essentially, what you are saying is to rebuild CVG into a prominent connecting hub once again, they would have to execute the Concourse expansion projects they had planned for the 2025 master plan, including not only the west wing of Concourse A, but a slight extension in both directions on Concourse B as well (it is interesting to note that the western extension of Concourse B in this plan was included as a "beyond 2025 facility").

http://www.airportsites.net/cvgpart150mpu/documents/CVG%20MPU%20022007%20FinalDraft.pdf

I don't think it would be too difficult to rebuild CVG into a 250-300 flight DL hub. And this time, there is enough presence of other airlines where the fares won't be jacked up again. The Concourse A expansion would still primarily be used by other airlines (though DL could probably take a few gates if needed).

I agree that unfortunately, there is a near 0% chance of this happening, but in reality, it needs to be considered. What a shame......
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:51 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Interesting. I didn't know how DTW shrank and how ATL absorbed MEM, CVG and DFW! That's pretty bad if you ask me. I never understood why they kept both DTW and MSP, especially in light of their decision to build up SEA. One of them (preferably DTW) should probably be dismantled since they both are pretty redundant.

I think what we have discussed shows why both DTW and MSP were kept, combining both into MSP would create another mega hub prone to delays (a la ORD).

I also want to clarify for those who like to be picky :-), technically DFW was split up between SLC/ATL/CVG and CVG's Europe capacity was really shifted to JFK. Besides that, I am sure there are some small exceptions, but ATL got a most of the capacity, you can see the shift to ATL

2003: 76,876,128 (734,083 movements)
2016: 104,258,124 (648,595 movements, a ton of aircraft upgauging going on here!)

DL's total cut traffic at CVG/MEM/DFW was about 20-25 million, so it works out pretty nicely with other carriers having grown in ATL too, the excess went to LGA/JFK/DTW/MSP or was simply eliminated (intra-Texas, TOL, etc).
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:51 pm

cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Interesting. I didn't know how DTW shrank and how ATL absorbed MEM, CVG and DFW! That's pretty bad if you ask me. I never understood why they kept both DTW and MSP, especially in light of their decision to build up SEA. One of them (preferably DTW) should probably be dismantled since they both are pretty redundant.

I think what we have discussed shows why both DTW and MSP were kept, combining both into MSP would create another mega hub prone to delays (a la ORD).


Just to clarify, in my proposal to rebuild CVG, DET would be dismantled, but most of the traffic would be shifted to SEA (around 80-85%), with a small portion going to CVG. Then cut ATL down from around 1,000 to around 800 (about 200 flights) and shift that to CVG. All in all, it wouldn't be a net loss of traffic for Delta, they just would be dismantling a redundant hub (DET) and recreating one in a more central location (CVG) that can be used as a legit alternative to ATL.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4926
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:24 am

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Interesting. I didn't know how DTW shrank and how ATL absorbed MEM, CVG and DFW! That's pretty bad if you ask me. I never understood why they kept both DTW and MSP, especially in light of their decision to build up SEA. One of them (preferably DTW) should probably be dismantled since they both are pretty redundant.

I think what we have discussed shows why both DTW and MSP were kept, combining both into MSP would create another mega hub prone to delays (a la ORD).


Just to clarify, in my proposal to rebuild CVG, DET would be dismantled, but most of the traffic would be shifted to SEA (around 80-85%), with a small portion going to CVG. Then cut ATL down from around 1,000 to around 800 (about 200 flights) and shift that to CVG. All in all, it wouldn't be a net loss of traffic for Delta, they just would be dismantling a redundant hub (DET) and recreating one in a more central location (CVG) that can be used as a legit alternative to ATL.


Why would DL close an existing East-West hub to shift 15% of the traffic back down to an airport which is low on gate space and shift the rest of it to a hub which is low on gate space?
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
VetteDude
Posts: 83
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:13 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:36 am

I'm confused why he hates DTW so bad? It's a great airport.
 
B4REAL
Posts: 2614
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:53 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:40 am

Piece of trivia that will win you a bet in a bar.. until around 2005, which airport had the most consolidated DL gates (mainline + DL Connection)?

ATL, CVG, SLC, LAX, or JFK?

It was CVG.
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds & @RickVanover on Twitter
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:49 am

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Interesting. I didn't know how DTW shrank and how ATL absorbed MEM, CVG and DFW! That's pretty bad if you ask me. I never understood why they kept both DTW and MSP, especially in light of their decision to build up SEA. One of them (preferably DTW) should probably be dismantled since they both are pretty redundant.

I think what we have discussed shows why both DTW and MSP were kept, combining both into MSP would create another mega hub prone to delays (a la ORD).

Just to clarify, in my proposal to rebuild CVG, DET would be dismantled, but most of the traffic would be shifted to SEA (around 80-85%), with a small portion going to CVG. Then cut ATL down from around 1,000 to around 800 (about 200 flights) and shift that to CVG. All in all, it wouldn't be a net loss of traffic for Delta, they just would be dismantling a redundant hub (DET) and recreating one in a more central location (CVG) that can be used as a legit alternative to ATL.

It's an interesting proposal, but I just don't see the logic in closing a hub in a city with about 2x the population in favor of Cincinnati. I used to live in Toledo, which is just south of DTW, believe me, I am not a fan of Detroit, but that does not mean it is not a really strong population center and business market. In addition, its facilities are easily some of the nicest in the entire DL system, you cannot beat the terminal NW built. Redundant hubs are good in time like we have just seen (CVG and ATL were very redundant hubs in the DL days, just like MSP and DTW were for NW). Any (very unlikely) attempt to relieve ATL would be an ATL --> CVG shift only, no reason to touch DTW or MSP. I consider MSP and DTW very strong assets to the DL system, their slight reduction in traffic since the NW days has created two efficient and pleasurable places to connect. I totally agree ATL could use some relief, I am pretty frequently delayed on my trips through ATL and there is no doubt keeping CVG a little larger would have helped immensely. Unfortunately, what has been done has been done, and I don't see DL backtracking.

The only real shot CVG has at becoming a legitimate hub again is for F9 with the 200 (199 to be exact :-)) aircraft they have on order currently. DL downsizing has given CVG arguably one of its best periods of redevelopment and growth ever, and I am excited to see where it goes over the next decade.
Last edited by cvgComair on Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
WWads
Posts: 324
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:18 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:11 am

DeltaRules wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
I think what we have discussed shows why both DTW and MSP were kept, combining both into MSP would create another mega hub prone to delays (a la ORD).


Just to clarify, in my proposal to rebuild CVG, DET would be dismantled, but most of the traffic would be shifted to SEA (around 80-85%), with a small portion going to CVG. Then cut ATL down from around 1,000 to around 800 (about 200 flights) and shift that to CVG. All in all, it wouldn't be a net loss of traffic for Delta, they just would be dismantling a redundant hub (DET) and recreating one in a more central location (CVG) that can be used as a legit alternative to ATL.


Why would DL close an existing East-West hub to shift 15% of the traffic back down to an airport which is low on gate space and shift the rest of it to a hub which is low on gate space?


Seriously. I'm all for growth at CVG, but DL is not building up the hub again. Setting aside the financial sustainability, I doubt that CVG could handle a large DL connecting operation again. The baggage system is a disaster and they've downsized the staff significantly. It would take significant investment on DL's part to get back to 200+ banked flights.

It's not happening folks. CVG is O/D with connecting traffic as an afterthought. Unless ATL starts having weekly meltdowns, DL will continue to play the odds that the system will work the vast majority of the time.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:16 am

WWads wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Just to clarify, in my proposal to rebuild CVG, DET would be dismantled, but most of the traffic would be shifted to SEA (around 80-85%), with a small portion going to CVG. Then cut ATL down from around 1,000 to around 800 (about 200 flights) and shift that to CVG. All in all, it wouldn't be a net loss of traffic for Delta, they just would be dismantling a redundant hub (DET) and recreating one in a more central location (CVG) that can be used as a legit alternative to ATL.


Why would DL close an existing East-West hub to shift 15% of the traffic back down to an airport which is low on gate space and shift the rest of it to a hub which is low on gate space?


Seriously. I'm all for growth at CVG, but DL is not building up the hub again. Setting aside the financial sustainability, I doubt that CVG could handle a large DL connecting operation again. The baggage system is a disaster and they've downsized the staff significantly. It would take significant investment on DL's part to get back to 200+ banked flights.

It's not happening folks. CVG is O/D with connecting traffic as an afterthought. Unless ATL starts having weekly meltdowns, DL will continue to play the odds that the system will work the vast majority of the time.

:checkmark:
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 3:48 am

cvgComair wrote:
It's an interesting proposal, but I just don't see the logic in closing a hub in a city with about 2x the population in favor of Cincinnati. I used to live in Toledo, which is just south of DTW, believe me, I am not a fan of Detroit, but that does not mean it is not a really strong population center and business market. In addition, its facilities are easily some of the nicest in the entire DL system, you cannot beat the terminal NW built. Redundant hubs are good in time like we have just seen (CVG and ATL were very redundant hubs in the DL days, just like MSP and DTW were for NW). Any (very unlikely) attempt to relieve ATL would be an ATL --> CVG shift only, no reason to touch DTW or MSP. I consider MSP and DTW very strong assets to the DL system, their slight reduction in traffic since the NW days has created two efficient and pleasurable places to connect. I totally agree ATL could use some relief, I am pretty frequently delayed on my trips through ATL and there is no doubt keeping CVG a little larger would have helped immensely. Unfortunately, what has been done has been done, and I don't see DL backtracking.

The only real shot CVG has at becoming a legitimate hub again is for F9 with the 200 (199 to be exact :-)) aircraft they have on order currently. DL downsizing has given CVG arguably one of its best periods of redevelopment and growth ever, and I am excited to see where it goes over the next decade.


WWads wrote:
Seriously. I'm all for growth at CVG, but DL is not building up the hub again. Setting aside the financial sustainability, I doubt that CVG could handle a large DL connecting operation again. The baggage system is a disaster and they've downsized the staff significantly. It would take significant investment on DL's part to get back to 200+ banked flights.

It's not happening folks. CVG is O/D with connecting traffic as an afterthought. Unless ATL starts having weekly meltdowns, DL will continue to play the odds that the system will work the vast majority of the time.


You both are spot on. I realize my proposal is a mere daydream. IMO, it would take a series of consistent catastrophic events (on the magnitude of yesterday) at ATL for Delta to even have the thought of rebuilding the CVG hub.

And I agree cvgComair, even though DL likely won't ever restore significant service, CVG still has an incredibly bright future. I'm not even from Cincinnati and don't have any ties to the area (I am originally from Chicago and I am now living in Nashville), yet, I'm incredibly excited for CVG. It's shaping up to be one of the most incredible airport comeback stories ever.

Next year, F9, WN, AA will all be growing significantly, I have a feeling B6 will come, the consolidated rental car facility should (hopefully) begin construction either sometime next year or by early 2019 and we will know what the updated master plan will be for the terminal (which I am incredibly eager to see that piece of the plan, particularly what the long-term plans for Concourse A are). Oh, and don't forget Amazon should be breaking ground on their cargo facility anytime now.

I just hope DL doesn't cut any more capacity or routes out of CVG (particularly BNA-CVG, even though I feel that flight is living on borrowed time), that they at least maintain the service level they have and add a few additional routes such as AUS, MSY, LHR, etc.

As for ATL, I will be avoiding that airport at all costs for now on. If I have to connect, it will be at ORD, DFW, DTW, MSP, etc.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4926
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:16 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
It's an interesting proposal, but I just don't see the logic in closing a hub in a city with about 2x the population in favor of Cincinnati. I used to live in Toledo, which is just south of DTW, believe me, I am not a fan of Detroit, but that does not mean it is not a really strong population center and business market. In addition, its facilities are easily some of the nicest in the entire DL system, you cannot beat the terminal NW built. Redundant hubs are good in time like we have just seen (CVG and ATL were very redundant hubs in the DL days, just like MSP and DTW were for NW). Any (very unlikely) attempt to relieve ATL would be an ATL --> CVG shift only, no reason to touch DTW or MSP. I consider MSP and DTW very strong assets to the DL system, their slight reduction in traffic since the NW days has created two efficient and pleasurable places to connect. I totally agree ATL could use some relief, I am pretty frequently delayed on my trips through ATL and there is no doubt keeping CVG a little larger would have helped immensely. Unfortunately, what has been done has been done, and I don't see DL backtracking.

The only real shot CVG has at becoming a legitimate hub again is for F9 with the 200 (199 to be exact :-)) aircraft they have on order currently. DL downsizing has given CVG arguably one of its best periods of redevelopment and growth ever, and I am excited to see where it goes over the next decade.


WWads wrote:
Seriously. I'm all for growth at CVG, but DL is not building up the hub again. Setting aside the financial sustainability, I doubt that CVG could handle a large DL connecting operation again. The baggage system is a disaster and they've downsized the staff significantly. It would take significant investment on DL's part to get back to 200+ banked flights.

It's not happening folks. CVG is O/D with connecting traffic as an afterthought. Unless ATL starts having weekly meltdowns, DL will continue to play the odds that the system will work the vast majority of the time.


You both are spot on. I realize my proposal is a mere daydream. IMO, it would take a series of consistent catastrophic events (on the magnitude of yesterday) at ATL for Delta to even have the thought of rebuilding the CVG hub.

And I agree cvgComair, even though DL likely won't ever restore significant service, CVG still has an incredibly bright future. I'm not even from Cincinnati and don't have any ties to the area (I am originally from Chicago and I am now living in Nashville), yet, I'm incredibly excited for CVG. It's shaping up to be one of the most incredible airport comeback stories ever.

Next year, F9, WN, AA will all be growing significantly, I have a feeling B6 will come, the consolidated rental car facility should (hopefully) begin construction either sometime next year or by early 2019 and we will know what the updated master plan will be for the terminal (which I am incredibly eager to see that piece of the plan, particularly what the long-term plans for Concourse A are). Oh, and don't forget Amazon should be breaking ground on their cargo facility anytime now.

I just hope DL doesn't cut any more capacity or routes out of CVG (particularly BNA-CVG, even though I feel that flight is living on borrowed time), that they at least maintain the service level they have and add a few additional routes such as AUS, MSY, LHR, etc.

As for ATL, I will be avoiding that airport at all costs for now on. If I have to connect, it will be at ORD, DFW, DTW, MSP, etc.


Looking at it another way, near-term, you'd have your choice of a) DL retreading or b) continued expansion by airlines which have arrived since or haven't arrived yet and might potentially until a terminal expansion could be built. You wouldn't get both. DL retreading means they need every gate and everybody else stays put on A, meaning every airline which is in the not-at-CVG-yet-but-probably-should-be-five-minutes-ago crowd doesn't come for a while.

I'm going to go back to the talking point I've been making here for a while. It's Cincinnati, OH and has three airline focus cities with arguably too little room to accommodate them, plus a massive cargo operation to come which fell into its lap because the even more improbable comeback story up the road (ILN) apparently fumbled it away. CVG (and PIT, unrelated to DL as much) have risen like a phoenix from the ashes in spite of DL and ATL. The only thing which might not happen next year in your post is "significant" WN growth. Enjoy the ride.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
GSM605
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2016 1:55 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 3:14 pm

DeltaRules wrote:

I'm going to go back to the talking point I've been making here for a while. It's Cincinnati, OH and has three airline focus cities with arguably too little room to accommodate them, plus a massive cargo operation to come which fell into its lap because the even more improbable comeback story up the road (ILN) apparently fumbled it away. CVG (and PIT, unrelated to DL as much) have risen like a phoenix from the ashes in spite of DL and ATL. The only thing which might not happen next year in your post is "significant" WN growth. Enjoy the ride.


DHL’s cargo operation hardly fell into CVG’s lap. They had an existing infrastructure which DHL abandoned in favor of ILN several years ago. It was that coupled with planned growth (such decisions aren’t made hastily or overnight) and, yes, fumbling by the State of Ohio (ie a better offer from a Kentucky) that ultimately drove the move back to CVG. As for Amazon.....what a score. I only hope that CVG doesn’t have a repeat of a Delta downsizing on the cargo side down the road by putting too many eggs in one basket.

I feel I might be in a distinct minority in not wanting another Delta build up (which I agree is unlikely). While it was awesome to see the frequencies and metal that DAL ran into/out of CVG, I’d rather see a variety of carriers and reasonable fares. As you all know, Tri-Staters suffered from a lack of both for years when Delta had its hub. As a lifelong Cincinnati resident, when Delta downsized to its current level of ops, I thought CVG was down for the count. That looks not to be the case and I see reasonable, sustained growth as the economy continues to recover and carriers start bringing back mainline service to Cincinnati. Emphasis on “reasonable”. Cincinnati tends to think of itself as being bigger than it is. I think we should be happy with the decisions and planning that is currently taking place as it is a far better road for the future than the one that was taken in the past.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4926
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 3:20 pm

GSM605 wrote:
As for Amazon.....what a score. I only hope that CVG doesn’t have a repeat of a Delta downsizing on the cargo side down the road by putting too many eggs in one basket.


I'm talking about Amazon, which resurrected ILN long enough for them to see how a cargo operation worked and to decide to follow DHL down 71 to CVG, ruining its improbable comeback story.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 3:37 pm

GSM605 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:

I'm going to go back to the talking point I've been making here for a while. It's Cincinnati, OH and has three airline focus cities with arguably too little room to accommodate them, plus a massive cargo operation to come which fell into its lap because the even more improbable comeback story up the road (ILN) apparently fumbled it away. CVG (and PIT, unrelated to DL as much) have risen like a phoenix from the ashes in spite of DL and ATL. The only thing which might not happen next year in your post is "significant" WN growth. Enjoy the ride.


DHL’s cargo operation hardly fell into CVG’s lap. They had an existing infrastructure which DHL abandoned in favor of ILN several years ago. It was that coupled with planned growth (such decisions aren’t made hastily or overnight) and, yes, fumbling by the State of Ohio (ie a better offer from a Kentucky) that ultimately drove the move back to CVG. As for Amazon.....what a score. I only hope that CVG doesn’t have a repeat of a Delta downsizing on the cargo side down the road by putting too many eggs in one basket.

I feel I might be in a distinct minority in not wanting another Delta build up (which I agree is unlikely). While it was awesome to see the frequencies and metal that DAL ran into/out of CVG, I’d rather see a variety of carriers and reasonable fares. As you all know, Tri-Staters suffered from a lack of both for years when Delta had its hub. As a lifelong Cincinnati resident, when Delta downsized to its current level of ops, I thought CVG was down for the count. That looks not to be the case and I see reasonable, sustained growth as the economy continues to recover and carriers start bringing back mainline service to Cincinnati. Emphasis on “reasonable”. Cincinnati tends to think of itself as being bigger than it is. I think we should be happy with the decisions and planning that is currently taking place as it is a far better road for the future than the one that was taken in the past.

I don't think you are in a minority. As great as having the large DL hub was, it really killed O&D traffic. With the exception of Comair's buildup (independently from Delta), I would argue that CVG is in its best position ever. The lower fares have sparked immense traffic growth which should hit 9 million by the end of 2018. The amount of people that are able to fly out of CVG affordably has essentially doubled in only a matter of years. The airport is claiming that CVG is the fastest growing passenger and cargo airport in the county. Cargo is definitely true, I am a little skeptical about the passenger side being the fastest growing, but with 18% YOY growth, it has to be up there.

I think the cargo operations are pretty safe, the infrastructure DL left behind will allow DHL and Amazon to grow for decades. Luckily, cargo carriers are much more stable with their hubs than passenger carriers and the DHL move to ILN was just a short-lived fluke. Besides infrastructure, I think the main reason Amazon chose CVG was because all of its operators (ABX, Atlas, and ATI) have their largest hubs at CVG because of DHL. While only Southern Air has its headquarters in Cincinnati, they are starting to do more maintenance at CVG and eventually I could see some of them moving headquarters to CVG for efficiency sake. The build up of these ties should help to ensure that they keep their permanent homes at CVG.

I know very little about this, but I have seen mentioned on other threads that Amazon might eventually buy one of its cargo operators to take more control. That would certainly cement Amazon (and DHL) to CVG. Some of the posters on the Amazon thread are vehemently apposed to this, but I have a feeling Amazon and DHL are trying to partner up for Cargo service. With Amazon currently being domestic-only and DHL being international-only, it certainly makes sense, especially given that they now have the same hub, using the same sort facilities (the new ones will be side-by-side with each other), and using the same operators. If Amazon did in fact buy ABX, ATI, or Atlas, Amazon would essentially become part of the DHL network. Interesting to think about...
 
GSM605
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2016 1:55 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:04 pm

cvgComair wrote:
I think the main reason Amazon chose CVG was because all of its operators (ABX, Atlas, and ATI) have their largest hubs at CVG because of DHL. While only Southern Air has its headquarters in Cincinnati, they are starting to do more maintenance at CVG and eventually I could see some of them moving headquarters to CVG for efficiency sake. The build up of these ties should help to ensure that they keep their permanent homes at CVG.

I know very little about this, but I have seen mentioned on other threads that Amazon might eventually buy one of its cargo operators to take more control. That would certainly cement Amazon (and DHL) to CVG. Some of the posters on the Amazon thread are vehemently apposed to this, but I have a feeling Amazon and DHL are trying to partner up for Cargo service. With Amazon currently being domestic-only and DHL being international-only, it certainly makes sense, especially given that they now have the same hub, using the same sort facilities (the new ones will be side-by-side with each other), and using the same operators. If Amazon did in fact buy ABX, ATI, or Atlas, Amazon would essentially become part of the DHL network. Interesting to think about...


That's a really good point. I don't think it was an accident either. Amazon needs/needed a partner when it decided to enter into the delivery business and it wasn't going to be the SDF or MEM crowd. While they may not be partners by a legal definition, there's no mistake that it's a cozy relationship that benefits both companies. I firmly believe that Amazon will be successful on the air side of the delivery business. I think, however, that they have a long ways to go when it comes to that final mile (I think that's how you guys refer to the ground delivery to homes and businesses). My personal experience thus far with AMZL on the ground has been less than spectacular. I've had missed delivery dates, lost/damaged packages and a baffling inability to even find the right address on two occasions. All of this has happened this year and the common thread is AMZL. This was very rarely an issue with UPS or FDX. I wonder if Amazon might expand its relationship with DHL to learn that end of the business as well? Either way, an acquisition of another cargo carrier is not a stretch of the imagination.

In any event (and to get the thread back on track), cargo operations are a huge boon for CVG and will certainly enable the airport to expand options (carriers and destinations) on the PAX side of things.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:24 pm

cvgComair wrote:
I don't think you are in a minority. As great as having the large DL hub was, it really killed O&D traffic. With the exception of Comair's buildup (independently from Delta), I would argue that CVG is in its best position ever. The lower fares have sparked immense traffic growth which should hit 9 million by the end of 2018. The amount of people that are able to fly out of CVG affordably has essentially doubled in only a matter of years. The airport is claiming that CVG is the fastest growing passenger and cargo airport in the county. Cargo is definitely true, I am a little skeptical about the passenger side being the fastest growing, but with 18% YOY growth, it has to be up there.


The problem IMO was that the DL CVG hub at its peak (600+ flights) was simply too big for the market. It should have been more along the lines of what SLC is, around 250 flights. If it weren't for DET, I would imagine CVG would be a hub around that size today. A more reasonable hub like that could allow for competition. But that's besides the point.

I could see the airport being among the fastest growing. If you say they will surpass 9 million next year, that's basically adding 3 million in 3 years.

DeltaRules wrote:
Looking at it another way, near-term, you'd have your choice of a) DL retreading or b) continued expansion by airlines which have arrived since or haven't arrived yet and might potentially until a terminal expansion could be built. You wouldn't get both. DL retreading means they need every gate and everybody else stays put on A, meaning every airline which is in the not-at-CVG-yet-but-probably-should-be-five-minutes-ago crowd doesn't come for a while.

I'm going to go back to the talking point I've been making here for a while. It's Cincinnati, OH and has three airline focus cities with arguably too little room to accommodate them, plus a massive cargo operation to come which fell into its lap because the even more improbable comeback story up the road (ILN) apparently fumbled it away. CVG (and PIT, unrelated to DL as much) have risen like a phoenix from the ashes in spite of DL and ATL. The only thing which might not happen next year in your post is "significant" WN growth. Enjoy the ride.


Concourse A will have to be expanded soon regardless. I will be very interested to see what the master plan is for the terminals. I'm thinking both Concourses will need to stay long term and Concourse A not only needs to expand by about 10-15 gates, but the existing portion should be town down and rebuilt. Basically, design and build a new Concourse A from scratch that extends both west and east, with more room for better concessions.

And yes, WN won't significantly grow next year, they'll add a few new destinations, but their growth at CVG will be a slower and more gradual.
 
jtwall
Posts: 45
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:19 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 12:31 pm

WN adding 1x daily seasonal service to PHX from CVG. Starting March 8th and ending April 7th for Reds spring training. The Enquirer also reiterated the quote of how the MDW and BWI flights are "exceeding all expectations."

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/ ... 967689001/
 
GSM605
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2016 1:55 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:37 pm

While it’s no coincidence that is in part for Reds’ spring training, it misses the beginning by several weeks (including some of the first games) and extends past the end by more than a week. Is it because of aircraft availability? Maybe. I wonder, however, if Southwest might not also be using the opportunity to test the waters and see where people might be connecting to in PHX? Is five or six weeks enough to gather some data? Do they expect different data from what they’ve gathered from MDW?
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:54 pm

GSM605 wrote:
While it’s no coincidence that is in part for Reds’ spring training, it misses the beginning by several weeks (including some of the first games) and extends past the end by more than a week. Is it because of aircraft availability? Maybe. I wonder, however, if Southwest might not also be using the opportunity to test the waters and see where people might be connecting to in PHX? Is five or six weeks enough to gather some data? Do they expect different data from what they’ve gathered from MDW?

It is practically the same seasonal schedule DL used to operate for CVG-PHX, the timing corresponds well with Spring Break travelers. The route appears to be daily. DL actually said they might relaunch the route for this period the last few years, so I am not surprised WN hopped on it first, I am sure it is due to aircraft availability. It is the probably the most underserved market from CVG, hopefully this helps grow the market, I am sure it will be extended to year round in no time.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4926
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:22 pm

jtwall wrote:
WN adding 1x daily seasonal service to PHX from CVG. Starting March 8th and ending April 7th for Reds spring training. The Enquirer also reiterated the quote of how the MDW and BWI flights are "exceeding all expectations."

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/ ... 967689001/


This sounds like CMH-HOU, which runs for a limited time right now.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
rockyracoon
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2003 3:58 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:46 pm

PHX makes a lot of sense for WN's first western destination from CVG. I agree, it will end up going year round. Would this put a damper on any AA service to PHX?
Airports I've flown from: CVG PIT MWO PHL PHX ORD DCA IAD MIA TPA MCO FLL ATL DTW DFW SJC LAX DEN SLC LAS HNL LIH OGG YVR MUC ICN NRT PVG SHA SZX MNL PPS CRK BKK DMK KBV EOH MDE CLO CTG SMR BOG ACD MEX CUN MID AUA SAL RTB
 
GSM605
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2016 1:55 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:51 pm

That’s right. I forgot DAL ran it in the past around that time. I checked and see both Frontier and Allegiant have service (not daily) resumed to PHX by then (I think it was seasonal but I’m not sure). So DAL isn’t offering it yet for 2018? It’s getting a little late for them to add it at this point isn’t it?
Last edited by GSM605 on Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 3253
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:53 pm

I don't see why WN can't do 9x weekly on the flight with a daily weekday flight and 2x on the weekends. I'd also expect DL to get either a 73H or M90 in there if that happens.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:00 pm

GSM605 wrote:
That’s right. I forgot DAL ran it in the past around that time. I checked and see both Frontier and Allegiant have service (not daily) resumed to PHX by then (I think it was seasonal but I’m not sure). So DAL isn’t offering it yet for 2018? It’s getting a little late for them to add it at this point isn’t it?

flymco753 wrote:
I don't see why WN can't do 9x weekly on the flight with a daily weekday flight and 2x on the weekends. I'd also expect DL to get either a 73H or M90 in there if that happens.

G4 and F9 are both less than daily, but year round on CVG-PHX/AZA. G4 has added a 3rd weekly frequency for this same time period as well. DL used to add it pretty late in the schedule, looks like DL operated an A320 from mid-Feb until March, then an B738 until the end of March. I think its probably more likely they add CVG-PHX for March now that WN added it. It is such a high traffic route during that time, I would imagine they both could fill seats. I took the PHX route on DL in 2015 when they last operated it and it was oversold in both directions. I am sure they could fill a B738, it just depends on wether they could do it profitably (as was the problem with SAN and PHX for DL, high loads but low ticket prices).
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:39 pm

cvgComair wrote:
GSM605 wrote:
That’s right. I forgot DAL ran it in the past around that time. I checked and see both Frontier and Allegiant have service (not daily) resumed to PHX by then (I think it was seasonal but I’m not sure). So DAL isn’t offering it yet for 2018? It’s getting a little late for them to add it at this point isn’t it?

flymco753 wrote:
I don't see why WN can't do 9x weekly on the flight with a daily weekday flight and 2x on the weekends. I'd also expect DL to get either a 73H or M90 in there if that happens.

G4 and F9 are both less than daily, but year round on CVG-PHX/AZA. G4 has added a 3rd weekly frequency for this same time period as well. DL used to add it pretty late in the schedule, looks like DL operated an A320 from mid-Feb until March, then an B738 until the end of March. I think its probably more likely they add CVG-PHX for March now that WN added it. It is such a high traffic route during that time, I would imagine they both could fill seats. I took the PHX route on DL in 2015 when they last operated it and it was oversold in both directions. I am sure they could fill a B738, it just depends on wether they could do it profitably (as was the problem with SAN and PHX for DL, high loads but low ticket prices).


No doubt in my mind WN will make this a full time daily route eventually. However, I don’t think DL relaunches PHX because I see AA launching it as well when they move to B and expand. They will presumably launch mainline service to either LAX or PHX as part of the expansion, but considering the DL upgauges on CVG-LAX and the competitiveness in that route as it stands, I’d be surprised if AA launched CVG-LAX. As such, PHX seems more reasonable for AA.
 
flyinryan99
Posts: 1491
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2001 6:54 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:51 pm

flyinryan99 wrote:
Toledo finally starting to see the effects of Charlotte service. October passenger statistics are as follows:

Allegiant Air
Month Available Seats Enplanements Load Factor Deplanements Load Factor Total Passengers Change
October 4,584 3,886 85% 3,577 78% 7,463 -5.5%
YTD 52,290 44,132 84% 44,225 85% 88,357 -5%

American Airlines operated by Envoy/PSA/Skywest
Month Available Seats Enplanements Load Factor Deplanements Load Factor Total Passengers Change
October 7,438 5,619 76% 5,678 76% 11,297 81.6%
YTD 47,587 32,484 68% 32,904 69% 65,388 16%

Airport Total
Month Available Seats Enplanements Load Factor Deplanements Load Factor Total Passengers Change
October 12,139 9,622 79% 9,444 78% 19,066 32.8%
YTD 101,148 77,887 77% 78,400 78% 156,287 3.2%

Should hit between 190,000 and 195,000 passengers through TOL this year which would put it between 5% and 8% growth over 2016. Slow but steady growth going forward. Hopefully TOL can finally join the foray of 70 seat RJs with First Class service in 2018 which would keep growth moving up for 2018. No other changes at TOL other than tidying up the place a bit and investing in the facility which hasn't been done lately.


November 2017 passenger numbers are out and again showed better than expected growth. This November showed a 43.4% increase over November 2016. Total passenger traffic year to date is now up 6.5% through TOL.

Allegiant Air
Month Available Seats Enplanements Load Factor Deplanements Load Factor Total Passengers Change
November 4,945 4,224 85% 4,140 84% 8,364 12.25%
YTD 57,235 48,356 84% 48,365 85% 96,721 -2.97%

American Airlines operated by Envoy/PSA/Skywest
Month Available Seats Enplanements Load Factor Deplanements Load Factor Total Passengers Change
November 7,065 5,412 77% 5,425 77% 10,837 99.2%
YTD 54,652 37,896 69% 38,329 70% 76,225 18.9%


Airport Total
Month Available Seats Enplanements Load Factor Deplanements Load Factor Total Passengers Change
November 12,010 9,636 80% 9,565 80% 19,201 43.4%
YTD 113,158 87,523 77% 87,965 78% 175,488 6.5%

TOL is already ahead of 2010 passenger statistics which was the first year I started keeping track. I wish I knew 2009 passenger numbers to know if this is the best since then. In 2008, TOL had 250,876 which I don't know if it is attainable with the current schedule Allegiant has out for spring and summer of 2018. None the less, very good number overall.
 
brooklynchris13
Posts: 262
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:11 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:04 pm

Good morning all. On the CMH side, has anyone received any indication of how the advance bookings for Spirit are looking or confirmation about their gate location? I was in the terminal yesterday but did not see any indications of where they are going to end up. Going back to the October numbers, one item that stood out was that every carrier posted a gain in passenger numbers, which is promising. Recent months for American had shown slight declines, but it appears the consistent growth has returned and is benefiting all carriers. If it continues, looks like 8 million passengers will be doable in 2018.
"Be the change you want to see in the world" (mg)
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2775
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:23 pm

GSM605 wrote:
While it’s no coincidence that is in part for Reds’ spring training, it misses the beginning by several weeks (including some of the first games) and extends past the end by more than a week. Is it because of aircraft availability? Maybe. I wonder, however, if Southwest might not also be using the opportunity to test the waters and see where people might be connecting to in PHX? Is five or six weeks enough to gather some data? Do they expect different data from what they’ve gathered from MDW?


I am guessing it corresponds to one of their schedule updates. STL got PBI for spring training at the time of the update and it runs the same weeks. It was one of the shorter updates.
 
User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 3253
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:34 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
GSM605 wrote:
That’s right. I forgot DAL ran it in the past around that time. I checked and see both Frontier and Allegiant have service (not daily) resumed to PHX by then (I think it was seasonal but I’m not sure). So DAL isn’t offering it yet for 2018? It’s getting a little late for them to add it at this point isn’t it?

flymco753 wrote:
I don't see why WN can't do 9x weekly on the flight with a daily weekday flight and 2x on the weekends. I'd also expect DL to get either a 73H or M90 in there if that happens.

G4 and F9 are both less than daily, but year round on CVG-PHX/AZA. G4 has added a 3rd weekly frequency for this same time period as well. DL used to add it pretty late in the schedule, looks like DL operated an A320 from mid-Feb until March, then an B738 until the end of March. I think its probably more likely they add CVG-PHX for March now that WN added it. It is such a high traffic route during that time, I would imagine they both could fill seats. I took the PHX route on DL in 2015 when they last operated it and it was oversold in both directions. I am sure they could fill a B738, it just depends on wether they could do it profitably (as was the problem with SAN and PHX for DL, high loads but low ticket prices).


No doubt in my mind WN will make this a full time daily route eventually. However, I don’t think DL relaunches PHX because I see AA launching it as well when they move to B and expand. They will presumably launch mainline service to either LAX or PHX as part of the expansion, but considering the DL upgauges on CVG-LAX and the competitiveness in that route as it stands, I’d be surprised if AA launched CVG-LAX. As such, PHX seems more reasonable for AA.
AA is probably also less likely to do LAX because of the same reason they probably don't do it from DTW or MSP anymore because of DL's large presence.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:35 pm

CVG November stats are out:
Passengers: 7,204,718 YTD, up 15.70% (14.6% for Nov)
Cargo: 933,879 tons YTD, up 27%

Pax slowed down a bit in Nov because of F9's reductions, CVG will hit right about 7.8 million total for 2017.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4926
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:44 pm

brooklynchris13 wrote:
Good morning all. On the CMH side, has anyone received any indication of how the advance bookings for Spirit are looking or confirmation about their gate location? I was in the terminal yesterday but did not see any indications of where they are going to end up. Going back to the October numbers, one item that stood out was that every carrier posted a gain in passenger numbers, which is promising. Recent months for American had shown slight declines, but it appears the consistent growth has returned and is benefiting all carriers. If it continues, looks like 8 million passengers will be doable in 2018.


Gate is still TBD. Apparently they're still working on the "logistics".

I also saw the growth on the part of every airline, which is encouraging- G4 put up some pretty impressive numbers at LCK as well (they were actually notably bigger than F9 in October and put up numbers comparable to UA in July). With 6.2M as of October and two months with busy travel periods unaccounted for, I would think if Spirit can do fairly well in their first year that 8 million could be doable, especially with seven destinations right out of the gate.

What I'm curious is to how cozy Nardone might be with DL and NK given both airlines' ties to DTW and if he could parlay that into expansion by one or both.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:08 pm

Some more information on the AA situation. The concessions in Concourse B will not begin construction until December 2018 with completion by the end of 2019, this is a significant pushback from the July 2018 start date (this was decided when the AA move was finalized, somehow I overlooked that change). I find it interesting that CVG is aware of/planned AA growth this far in advance... I wonder if AA will take on more gates/other airlines could move to B within that timeframe.

Unfortunately, I have not seen/heard any estimates for traffic growth beyond 2018. It also sounds like they are aiming for 10 new food/restaurant locations on top of the 16 retail locations, that seems quite ambitious to say the least. The lease term is 10 years, which means Concourse B will be staying until at least 2030. If they plan on keeping B that long, they are going to need to do major equipment overhauls with the baggage system, utilities, etc.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:56 pm

cvgComair wrote:
Some more information on the AA situation. The concessions in Concourse B will not begin construction until December 2018 with completion by the end of 2019, this is a significant pushback from the July 2018 start date (this was decided when the AA move was finalized, somehow I overlooked that change). I find it interesting that CVG is aware of/planned AA growth this far in advance... I wonder if AA will take on more gates/other airlines could move to B within that timeframe.

Unfortunately, I have not seen/heard any estimates for traffic growth beyond 2018. It also sounds like they are aiming for 10 new food/restaurant locations on top of the 16 retail locations, that seems quite ambitious to say the least. The lease term is 10 years, which means Concourse B will be staying until at least 2030. If they plan on keeping B that long, they are going to need to do major equipment overhauls with the baggage system, utilities, etc.


I think UA should join AA and DL in B, leaving A for LCC’s and B for legacies/international flights that need FIS.

What would be the feasibility of moving everyone to Concourse B while A undergoes a complete demolition and rebuild? I’m thinking long term A needs to be demolished and rebuilt with a new design with about 10-12 additional gates, bringing the total in A to 35.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 7:06 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
What would be the feasibility of moving everyone to Concourse B while A undergoes a complete demolition and rebuild? I’m thinking long term A needs to be demolished and rebuilt with a new design with about 10-12 additional gates, bringing the total in A to 35.

The plan is to build the new west wing, shift the airlines over, demolish and rebuild the east wing, spread them back out through both sides. Here is a diagram of what was proposed: https://www.cvgairport.com/docs/default-source/master-plan-report/2-exec-summary.pdf?sfvrsn=2. That said, all this is going to change in the new plan, I will be interested to see how they handle it.

Also, I saw that the CONRAC is scheduled to begin construction sometime next year.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 7:29 pm

cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
What would be the feasibility of moving everyone to Concourse B while A undergoes a complete demolition and rebuild? I’m thinking long term A needs to be demolished and rebuilt with a new design with about 10-12 additional gates, bringing the total in A to 35.

The plan is to build the new west wing, shift the airlines over, demolish and rebuild the east wing, spread them back out through both sides. Here is a diagram of what was proposed: https://www.cvgairport.com/docs/default-source/master-plan-report/2-exec-summary.pdf?sfvrsn=2. That said, all this is going to change in the new plan, I will be interested to see how they handle it.

Also, I saw that the CONRAC is scheduled to begin construction sometime next year.


That was when the airport was shrinking and they were going to consolidate everything into one Concourse. With the airport growing again, I doubt that will still be the plan. I think both Concourses will need to stay long term, with A being demolished and rebuilt with 35 gates divided into a east and west wing and a better central area for concessions, similar to Concourse B (though more modern and not quite as wide).

If they want to open the CONRAC by 2021, construction will have to begin by next year, considering the plan seems to be a lotvmore than just building the actual CONRAC garage.
 
User avatar
Cvgspotter15
Posts: 361
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 6:14 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:05 pm

Heard from an employee PHX is starting year round in May.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:34 pm

SY added two flights from MSP starting in May (MSP-LAX-HNL and MSP-MYR), so I would assume potential SY routes starting in the summer would probably be announced within the next month or so.
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
Heard from an employee PHX is starting year round in May.

WN or AA?
 
User avatar
Cvgspotter15
Posts: 361
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 6:14 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:58 pm

cvgComair wrote:
SY added two flights from MSP starting in May (MSP-LAX-HNL and MSP-MYR), so I would assume potential SY routes starting in the summer would probably be announced within the next month or so.
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
Heard from an employee PHX is starting year round in May.

WN or AA?


WN, I am not sure why they wouldn’t just announce this. Maybe the are seeing how ticket sales are in these next couple weeks.
 
User avatar
Cvgspotter15
Posts: 361
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 6:14 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:00 pm

Does anyone have the SWA load factors for this fall?
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2775
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:21 pm

Cvgspotter15 wrote:
Does anyone have the SWA load factors for this fall?


September is the most recent month I can find

August

CVG-BWI 64.37%
CVG-MDW 63.27%

BWI-CVG 69.20%
MDW-CVG 61.91%


September

CVG-BWI 63.01%
CVG-MDW 68.97%

BWI-CVG 66.05%
MDW-CVG 67.95%
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1475
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:33 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
Does anyone have the SWA load factors for this fall?


September is the most recent month I can find

August

CVG-BWI 64.37%
CVG-MDW 63.27%

BWI-CVG 69.20%
MDW-CVG 61.91%


September

CVG-BWI 63.01%
CVG-MDW 68.97%

BWI-CVG 66.05%
MDW-CVG 67.95%
Those aren't great, but I would think pretty much holding steady from August to September is a pretty good sign.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
Briancw
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:55 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:05 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
Good morning all. On the CMH side, has anyone received any indication of how the advance bookings for Spirit are looking or confirmation about their gate location? I was in the terminal yesterday but did not see any indications of where they are going to end up. Going back to the October numbers, one item that stood out was that every carrier posted a gain in passenger numbers, which is promising. Recent months for American had shown slight declines, but it appears the consistent growth has returned and is benefiting all carriers. If it continues, looks like 8 million passengers will be doable in 2018.


Gate is still TBD. Apparently they're still working on the "logistics".


Along the same lines, I asked a DL agent at check in today about this and he said they had no idea yet. Then went on a rant on why people shouldn’t fly Spirit, lol
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:36 pm

Cvgspotter15 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
SY added two flights from MSP starting in May (MSP-LAX-HNL and MSP-MYR), so I would assume potential SY routes starting in the summer would probably be announced within the next month or so.
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
Heard from an employee PHX is starting year round in May.

WN or AA?


WN, I am not sure why they wouldn’t just announce this. Maybe the are seeing how ticket sales are in these next couple weeks.

In that case, I am guessing it’s partly aircraft availability. It is an addition outside of their normal schedule releases, so I bet you are right about looking at ticket sales. Nice to hear that it should become year round.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:08 am

cledaybuck wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
Does anyone have the SWA load factors for this fall?


September is the most recent month I can find

August

CVG-BWI 64.37%
CVG-MDW 63.27%

BWI-CVG 69.20%
MDW-CVG 61.91%

September

CVG-BWI 63.01%
CVG-MDW 68.97%

BWI-CVG 66.05%
MDW-CVG 67.95%
Those aren't great, but I would think pretty much holding steady from August to September is a pretty good sign.

Also, keep in mind WN upguaged the BWI flights to larger 738 aircraft, so though LF's remained pretty steady, overall pax still increased. The MDW flights have grown in FL's pretty steadily as well, though only a limited number of flights have used the 738. It's not great, but considering WN has only been at CVG about 6 months and they are on highly competitive routes, I was worried they would do much worse. As nonstop options from CVG are expanded, I expect the LF's will continue to climb.

G4 has taken a huge hit on their CVG-BWI flights as a result of WN though, LF's have plummeted:

6-'17 ('16): 59% (83%)
7-'17 ('16): 63% (80%)
8-'17 ('16): 54% (82%)
9-'17 ('16): 48% (73%)

DL looks to be doing fine with LF's in the mid 70's to 80's, if fact, their LF's have stayed pretty much the same and some months actually increased YOY.
Last edited by cvgComair on Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:20 am

cvgComair wrote:
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
SY added two flights from MSP starting in May (MSP-LAX-HNL and MSP-MYR), so I would assume potential SY routes starting in the summer would probably be announced within the next month or so.

WN or AA?


WN, I am not sure why they wouldn’t just announce this. Maybe the are seeing how ticket sales are in these next couple weeks.

In that case, I am guessing it’s partly aircraft availability. It is an addition outside of their normal schedule releases, so I bet you are right about looking at ticket sales. Nice to hear that it should become year round.


I am predicting AA will launch CVG-PHX next year as well. Either that or LAX. But like you said, with DL upgauging to a 757 on one of their LAX flights, it would be harder for AA to compete than to PHX, where WN would be their only daily competition. Then again, CMH has both LAX and PHX on AA in addition to LAX on DL, so who knows. I will be interested in how AA is going to expand once they move to B. If they are moving by April, shouldn't we be seeing some announcements soon for new service?

By the way cvgComair, are you Stinger20 on Wikipedia by any chance?
 
User avatar
Cvgspotter15
Posts: 361
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 6:14 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:32 am

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Cvgspotter15 wrote:

WN, I am not sure why they wouldn’t just announce this. Maybe the are seeing how ticket sales are in these next couple weeks.

In that case, I am guessing it’s partly aircraft availability. It is an addition outside of their normal schedule releases, so I bet you are right about looking at ticket sales. Nice to hear that it should become year round.


I am predicting AA will launch CVG-PHX next year as well. Either that or LAX. But like you said, with DL upgauging to a 757 on one of their LAX flights, it would be harder for AA to compete than to PHX, where WN would be their only daily competition. Then again, CMH has both LAX and PHX on AA in addition to LAX on DL, so who knows. I will be interested in how AA is going to expand once they move to B. If they are moving by April, shouldn't we be seeing some announcements soon for new service?

By the way cvgComair, are you Stinger20 on Wikipedia by any chance?


Yes he is. Also the daily PHX would take away from one MDW.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:34 am

ADrum23 wrote:
By the way cvgComair, are you Stinger20 on Wikipedia by any chance?

:checkmark:

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos