ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:38 am

cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
By the way cvgComair, are you Stinger20 on Wikipedia by any chance?

:checkmark:


Nice, I'm NBA2030 FYI.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:47 am

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
By the way cvgComair, are you Stinger20 on Wikipedia by any chance?

:checkmark:

Nice, I'm NBA2030 FYI.

Ah, I hadn't made that connection yet. Thanks for letting me know!
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:03 am

cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
:checkmark:

Nice, I'm NBA2030 FYI.

Ah, I hadn't made that connection yet. Thanks for letting me know!


No problem, I know you've reverted some of my edits before. I apologize if I've deleted things you've liked, but all I try to do is clean up the pages to make them look nicer and remove redundant info. The CVG and the MSP pages were terrible for a long time, both had way too much info that was too niche for the airport article.

I don't know about you, but I am getting increasingly tired of the inconsistent standards that are enforced when editing airport pages. Certain users (whom I won't mention) seem to be very picky about certain things.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2676
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:05 am

cvgComair wrote:
Also, keep in mind WN upguaged the BWI flights to larger 738 aircraft, so though LF's remained pretty steady, overall pax still increased. The MDW flights have grown in FL's pretty steadily as well, though only a limited number of flights have used the 738. It's not great, but considering WN has only been at CVG about 6 months and they are on highly competitive routes, I was worried they would do much worse. As nonstop options from CVG are expanded, I expect the LF's will continue to climb.

G4 has taken a huge hit on their CVG-BWI flights as a result of WN though, LF's have plummeted:

6-'17 ('16): 59% (83%)
7-'17 ('16): 63% (80%)
8-'17 ('16): 54% (82%)
9-'17 ('16): 48% (73%)

DL looks to be doing fine with LF's in the mid 70's to 80's, if fact, their LF's have stayed pretty much the same and some months actually increased YOY.


I have a feeling G4 may have to end that flight soon if those numbers keep up. I am not surprised it hasn't had a big effect on DL. I would think DL is still going to be the preferred airline for most people at CVG. At least, I would doubt that many FFs would move from DL to WN while it only has 2 destinations.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2676
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:09 am

ADrum23 wrote:

No problem, I know you've reverted some of my edits before. I apologize if I've deleted things you've liked, but all I try to do is clean up the pages to make them look nicer and remove redundant info. The CVG and the MSP pages were terrible for a long time, both had way too much info that was too niche for the airport article.

I don't know about you, but I am getting increasingly tired of the inconsistent standards that are enforced when editing airport pages. Certain users (whom I won't mention) seem to be very picky about certain things.


You may already do this but anytime I happen to make a wikipedia edit, I almost always leave a note saying exactly why I did what I did. It seems to cut down on re edits when everyone knows the reasoning for the change. Then people don't think I am just changing something without anything to back it up.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:20 am

Jshank83 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

No problem, I know you've reverted some of my edits before. I apologize if I've deleted things you've liked, but all I try to do is clean up the pages to make them look nicer and remove redundant info. The CVG and the MSP pages were terrible for a long time, both had way too much info that was too niche for the airport article.

I don't know about you, but I am getting increasingly tired of the inconsistent standards that are enforced when editing airport pages. Certain users (whom I won't mention) seem to be very picky about certain things.


You may already do this but anytime I happen to make a wikipedia edit, I almost always leave a note saying exactly why I did what I did. It seems to cut down on re edits when everyone knows the reasoning for the change. Then people don't think I am just changing something without anything to back it up.


I do that most of the time, but often it still gets reverted because it violates some obscure random policy, yet, the policy is not consistently applied across the board.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:34 am

Jshank83 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Also, keep in mind WN upguaged the BWI flights to larger 738 aircraft, so though LF's remained pretty steady, overall pax still increased. The MDW flights have grown in FL's pretty steadily as well, though only a limited number of flights have used the 738. It's not great, but considering WN has only been at CVG about 6 months and they are on highly competitive routes, I was worried they would do much worse. As nonstop options from CVG are expanded, I expect the LF's will continue to climb.

G4 has taken a huge hit on their CVG-BWI flights as a result of WN though, LF's have plummeted:

6-'17 ('16): 59% (83%)
7-'17 ('16): 63% (80%)
8-'17 ('16): 54% (82%)
9-'17 ('16): 48% (73%)

DL looks to be doing fine with LF's in the mid 70's to 80's, if fact, their LF's have stayed pretty much the same and some months actually increased YOY.


I have a feeling G4 may have to end that flight soon if those numbers keep up. I am not surprised it hasn't had a big effect on DL. I would think DL is still going to be the preferred airline for most people at CVG. At least, I would doubt that many FFs would move from DL to WN while it only has 2 destinations.


I always thought it was kind of silly to base how WN is doing at CVG solely off of the traffic numbers, mostly for the reason you just said. In time, WN will likely add flights from CVG to most of its major focus cities/operating bases, and that's when the real growth on WN will take off. They've now added PHX, I predict DEN, DAL and HOU are among the three most likely cities to be added next.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:12 am

ADrum23 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
Nice, I'm NBA2030 FYI.

Ah, I hadn't made that connection yet. Thanks for letting me know!


No problem, I know you've reverted some of my edits before. I apologize if I've deleted things you've liked, but all I try to do is clean up the pages to make them look nicer and remove redundant info. The CVG and the MSP pages were terrible for a long time, both had way too much info that was too niche for the airport article.

I don't know about you, but I am getting increasingly tired of the inconsistent standards that are enforced when editing airport pages. Certain users (whom I won't mention) seem to be very picky about certain things.

The ref stuff is getting ridiculous, I am staying clear of WP:Airports in the meantime. I appreciate your help with the CVG article (I never take anything on there personally), there was so much unnecessary stuff built up over the years. I have significantly cut my involvement there and instead have spent much more time on Airliners.net :D .

Jshank83 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
Also, keep in mind WN upguaged the BWI flights to larger 738 aircraft, so though LF's remained pretty steady, overall pax still increased. The MDW flights have grown in FL's pretty steadily as well, though only a limited number of flights have used the 738. It's not great, but considering WN has only been at CVG about 6 months and they are on highly competitive routes, I was worried they would do much worse. As nonstop options from CVG are expanded, I expect the LF's will continue to climb.

G4 has taken a huge hit on their CVG-BWI flights as a result of WN though, LF's have plummeted:

6-'17 ('16): 59% (83%)
7-'17 ('16): 63% (80%)
8-'17 ('16): 54% (82%)
9-'17 ('16): 48% (73%)

DL looks to be doing fine with LF's in the mid 70's to 80's, if fact, their LF's have stayed pretty much the same and some months actually increased YOY.

I have a feeling G4 may have to end that flight soon if those numbers keep up. I am not surprised it hasn't had a big effect on DL. I would think DL is still going to be the preferred airline for most people at CVG. At least, I would doubt that many FFs would move from DL to WN while it only has 2 destinations.

I totally agree. As a DL FF, if anything, I am flying more routes/year now that fares are lower and many routes have had noticeably higher loads. As long as DL keeps its service up, I will continue to use them for my flying out of CVG.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:29 am

This is kind of humorous, I am not sure what point of this is (if it ever sees the light of day), but I at least appreciate the creativity going on a CVG. They have certainly worked hard to be more involved in the community. https://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/ ... 962322001/
 
jph7291
Posts: 39
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:24 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:37 am

I find these predictions about a major AA expansion to be...surprising. DL still has a large operation flying to most of this country's major business markets plus a daily widebody transatlantic flight and multiple west coast flights. Both UA and AA serve most of their respective hubs with multiple frequencies on large RJs with a few mainline equipment thrown in here and there (eg UA-ORD/DEN/SFO and AA-DFW). I guess I just fail to see how some prospective adds to PHX/LAX and some inevitable upgauging will result in the DOUBLING of their current passenger volumes over the next 1-2 years. That is a lot of extra flights on many larger planes than we are seeing now, with minimal relative response from DL/UA/WN/etc...unless AA knows something we do not.
712, 732/G/8, 752, 763, 772/W, 320, M8/90, CR2/7/9, E45, E70/5, AT7, DH4/8
ACK, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLE, CVG, DAL, DAY, DTW, EWR, FLL, HOU, HSV, HNL, IAH, IND, MCO, MDW, MRS, NCE, OAK, ORD, ORY, PHL, RNS, SDF, YYZ
AA, AC, AF, CO, DL, FL, G4, UA, WN
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:13 am

jph7291 wrote:
I find these predictions about a major AA expansion to be...surprising. DL still has a large operation flying to most of this country's major business markets plus a daily widebody transatlantic flight and multiple west coast flights. Both UA and AA serve most of their respective hubs with multiple frequencies on large RJs with a few mainline equipment thrown in here and there (eg UA-ORD/DEN/SFO and AA-DFW). I guess I just fail to see how some prospective adds to PHX/LAX and some inevitable upgauging will result in the DOUBLING of their current passenger volumes over the next 1-2 years. That is a lot of extra flights on many larger planes than we are seeing now, with minimal relative response from DL/UA/WN/etc...unless AA knows something we do not.

AA serves CVG with almost nothing compared to many similar sized airports (just look at CMH/IND, they have 2-3x the amount of AA pax). AA has really fallen behind in recent years, historically CVG's #2 carrier, they are now trailing behind DL/F9/G4 and WN/UA are quickly catching up. Here is the current schedule for the Spring at CVG, that is only 30 daily flights, half of which are on </= 50 seat RJ's.
JFK: 1xE145
LGA: 2xE140
DCA: 2xCR2, 1xCR7
MIA: 1xE145
ORD: 4xE145, 2xE175, 1xCR7
CLT: 5xCR9, 2xCR2
PHL: 2xCR9, 1xE175, 1xCR7, 1xCR2
DFW: 2xMD80, 1xE140, 1xE175

This totals to about 400,000 AA emplacements per year, pretty paltry compared to peer airports. For the 8 month period of April-Dec 2018, AA will enplane 600,000 pax, or a rate of 800,000 per year. So, doubling the pax numbers is not all that large. A simple upgrading of all the ERJ-140/145/CRJ-200 flights gets you most of the way there, plus a few added frequencies and LAX or PHX, but I am not sure its quite double, not sure what else they will do.

We will see what happens, I can guarantee with 100% certainty that AA is moving to Concourse B by April 1st and that they plan on enplaning double the number of passengers for 2018. (How they plan on doing that, I honestly have no clue :smile: ) Also, 16 new shops and about 10 new restaurants will be built mostly in Concourse B (some in A as well) in anticipation for continued growth after 2018. Obviously the airport has been working with DL/AA quite a bit, because this is a large investment to bring all these concessions into CVG. I know nothing about the passenger growth besides the 2018 AA numbers and CVG hitting 9 million pax for 2018. Beyond that, obviously the airport knows significant expansion will continue, but only the airport/airlines know what that entails.
Last edited by cvgComair on Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
ADrum23
Posts: 1789
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:19 am

jph7291 wrote:
I find these predictions about a major AA expansion to be...surprising. DL still has a large operation flying to most of this country's major business markets plus a daily widebody transatlantic flight and multiple west coast flights. Both UA and AA serve most of their respective hubs with multiple frequencies on large RJs with a few mainline equipment thrown in here and there (eg UA-ORD/DEN/SFO and AA-DFW). I guess I just fail to see how some prospective adds to PHX/LAX and some inevitable upgauging will result in the DOUBLING of their current passenger volumes over the next 1-2 years. That is a lot of extra flights on many larger planes than we are seeing now, with minimal relative response from DL/UA/WN/etc...unless AA knows something we do not.


I think the AA expansion at CVG is more about bringing it on par with neighboring airports (IND, CMH, BNA, etc). I think the biggest thing that we'll see is AA addressing the lack of mainline service at CVG, with a secondary focus on upgauging a few of the RJ's. I see them upgauging to mainline on CLT, PHL and maybe MIA, plus adding either PHX or LAX which would have to be a mainline.
 
User avatar
Cvgspotter15
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 6:14 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:28 am

cvgComair wrote:
jph7291 wrote:
I find these predictions about a major AA expansion to be...surprising. DL still has a large operation flying to most of this country's major business markets plus a daily widebody transatlantic flight and multiple west coast flights. Both UA and AA serve most of their respective hubs with multiple frequencies on large RJs with a few mainline equipment thrown in here and there (eg UA-ORD/DEN/SFO and AA-DFW). I guess I just fail to see how some prospective adds to PHX/LAX and some inevitable upgauging will result in the DOUBLING of their current passenger volumes over the next 1-2 years. That is a lot of extra flights on many larger planes than we are seeing now, with minimal relative response from DL/UA/WN/etc...unless AA knows something we do not.

AA serves CVG with almost nothing compared to many similar sized airports (just look at CMH/IND, they have 2-3x the amount of AA pax). AA has really fallen behind in recent years, historically CVG's #2 carrier, they are now trailing behind DL/F9/G4 and WN/UA are quickly catching up. Here is the current schedule for the Spring at CVG, that is only 30 daily flights, half of which are on </= 50 seat RJ's.
JFK: 1xE145
LGA: 2xE140
DCA: 2xCR2, 1xCR7
MIA: 1xE145
ORD: 4xE145, 2xE175, 1xCR7
CLT: 5xCR9, 2xCR2
PHL: 2xCR9, 1xE175, 1xCR7, 1xCR2
DFW: 2xMD80, 1xE140, 1xE175

This totals to about 400,000 AA emplacements per year, pretty paltry compared to peer airports. For the 8 month period of April-Dec 2018, AA will enplane 600,000 pax, or a rate of 800,000 per year. So, doubling the pax numbers is not all that large. A simple upgrading of all the ERJ-140/145/CRJ-200 flights gets you most of the way there, plus a few added frequencies and LAX or PHX, but I am not sure its quite double, not sure what else they will do.

We will see what happens, I can guarantee with 100% certainty that AA is moving to Concourse B by April 1st and that they plan on enplaning double the number of passengers for 2018. (How they plan on doing that, I honestly have no clue :smile: ) Also, 16 new shops and about 10 new restaurants will be built mostly in Concourse B (some in A as well) in anticipation for continued growth after 2018. Obviously the airport has been working with DL/AA quite a bit, because this is a large investment to bring all these concessions into CVG. I know nothing about the passenger growth besides the 2018 AA numbers and CVG hitting 9 million pax for 2018. Beyond that, obviously the airport knows significant expansion will continue, but only the airport/airlines know what that entails.


When do we believe this will be announced? The SY, AA, and possibly WN announcements have to be soon since we are talking about spring/summer here which is soon.
 
brooklynchris13
Posts: 261
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:11 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:12 am

cvgComair wrote:
jph7291 wrote:
I find these predictions about a major AA expansion to be...surprising. DL still has a large operation flying to most of this country's major business markets plus a daily widebody transatlantic flight and multiple west coast flights. Both UA and AA serve most of their respective hubs with multiple frequencies on large RJs with a few mainline equipment thrown in here and there (eg UA-ORD/DEN/SFO and AA-DFW). I guess I just fail to see how some prospective adds to PHX/LAX and some inevitable upgauging will result in the DOUBLING of their current passenger volumes over the next 1-2 years. That is a lot of extra flights on many larger planes than we are seeing now, with minimal relative response from DL/UA/WN/etc...unless AA knows something we do not.

AA serves CVG with almost nothing compared to many similar sized airports (just look at CMH/IND, they have 2-3x the amount of AA pax). AA has really fallen behind in recent years, historically CVG's #2 carrier, they are now trailing behind DL/F9/G4 and WN/UA are quickly catching up. Here is the current schedule for the Spring at CVG, that is only 30 daily flights, half of which are on </= 50 seat RJ's.
JFK: 1xE145
LGA: 2xE140
DCA: 2xCR2, 1xCR7
MIA: 1xE145
ORD: 4xE145, 2xE175, 1xCR7
CLT: 5xCR9, 2xCR2
PHL: 2xCR9, 1xE175, 1xCR7, 1xCR2
DFW: 2xMD80, 1xE140, 1xE175

This totals to about 400,000 AA emplacements per year, pretty paltry compared to peer airports. For the 8 month period of April-Dec 2018, AA will enplane 600,000 pax, or a rate of 800,000 per year. So, doubling the pax numbers is not all that large. A simple upgrading of all the ERJ-140/145/CRJ-200 flights gets you most of the way there, plus a few added frequencies and LAX or PHX, but I am not sure its quite double, not sure what else they will do.

We will see what happens, I can guarantee with 100% certainty that AA is moving to Concourse B by April 1st and that they plan on enplaning double the number of passengers for 2018. (How they plan on doing that, I honestly have no clue :smile: ) Also, 16 new shops and about 10 new restaurants will be built mostly in Concourse B (some in A as well) in anticipation for continued growth after 2018. Obviously the airport has been working with DL/AA quite a bit, because this is a large investment to bring all these concessions into CVG. I know nothing about the passenger growth besides the 2018 AA numbers and CVG hitting 9 million pax for 2018. Beyond that, obviously the airport knows significant expansion will continue, but only the airport/airlines know what that entails.


Okay, I do not want to sound like a Debbie Downer here, but I think you maybe underestimating what is needed to double passenger numbers from a single airport on a single airline in a year. Especially in a market that has become as hyper-competitive as CVG. With DL still there, the ULCCs ramping up, and WN, how will AA be able to stimulate that much market growth in a single year? AA does not fly empty planes around, so going to mainline on routes to hubs that are currently served by smaller equipment, including CRJs, just does not seem like a reasonable expectation unless their demand skyrockets overnight. I think you will have to go through a CR7-> E175 phase before you see 160 or 172 seat 738s anywhere, or even 319s or MD82/83 while they last. CMH only has (1) occasional mainline flight to PHL and no Mainline to CLT at all, even though our traffic on AA is far above CVG. Even if AA undertook a major ad campaign and really pushed itself in the market, they would also run up against the fares of the ULCCs. Further, it is not like there is a huge AAdvantage base there that will ignore fare somewhat to get the miles, status, etc. I would love to see CVG continue its rebirth. It is good for the industry, for our state, and to show there can be life after de-hubbing. But, I just do not see how a bold big future AA operation is a part of that future. Do you have any additional documentation stating that AA is actually planning that type of operation at CVG?
"Be the change you want to see in the world" (mg)
 
User avatar
Cvgspotter15
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 6:14 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:48 am

brooklynchris13 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
jph7291 wrote:
I find these predictions about a major AA expansion to be...surprising. DL still has a large operation flying to most of this country's major business markets plus a daily widebody transatlantic flight and multiple west coast flights. Both UA and AA serve most of their respective hubs with multiple frequencies on large RJs with a few mainline equipment thrown in here and there (eg UA-ORD/DEN/SFO and AA-DFW). I guess I just fail to see how some prospective adds to PHX/LAX and some inevitable upgauging will result in the DOUBLING of their current passenger volumes over the next 1-2 years. That is a lot of extra flights on many larger planes than we are seeing now, with minimal relative response from DL/UA/WN/etc...unless AA knows something we do not.

AA serves CVG with almost nothing compared to many similar sized airports (just look at CMH/IND, they have 2-3x the amount of AA pax). AA has really fallen behind in recent years, historically CVG's #2 carrier, they are now trailing behind DL/F9/G4 and WN/UA are quickly catching up. Here is the current schedule for the Spring at CVG, that is only 30 daily flights, half of which are on </= 50 seat RJ's.
JFK: 1xE145
LGA: 2xE140
DCA: 2xCR2, 1xCR7
MIA: 1xE145
ORD: 4xE145, 2xE175, 1xCR7
CLT: 5xCR9, 2xCR2
PHL: 2xCR9, 1xE175, 1xCR7, 1xCR2
DFW: 2xMD80, 1xE140, 1xE175

This totals to about 400,000 AA emplacements per year, pretty paltry compared to peer airports. For the 8 month period of April-Dec 2018, AA will enplane 600,000 pax, or a rate of 800,000 per year. So, doubling the pax numbers is not all that large. A simple upgrading of all the ERJ-140/145/CRJ-200 flights gets you most of the way there, plus a few added frequencies and LAX or PHX, but I am not sure its quite double, not sure what else they will do.

We will see what happens, I can guarantee with 100% certainty that AA is moving to Concourse B by April 1st and that they plan on enplaning double the number of passengers for 2018. (How they plan on doing that, I honestly have no clue :smile: ) Also, 16 new shops and about 10 new restaurants will be built mostly in Concourse B (some in A as well) in anticipation for continued growth after 2018. Obviously the airport has been working with DL/AA quite a bit, because this is a large investment to bring all these concessions into CVG. I know nothing about the passenger growth besides the 2018 AA numbers and CVG hitting 9 million pax for 2018. Beyond that, obviously the airport knows significant expansion will continue, but only the airport/airlines know what that entails.


Okay, I do not want to sound like a Debbie Downer here, but I think you maybe underestimating what is needed to double passenger numbers from a single airport on a single airline in a year. Especially in a market that has become as hyper-competitive as CVG. With DL still there, the ULCCs ramping up, and WN, how will AA be able to stimulate that much market growth in a single year? AA does not fly empty planes around, so going to mainline on routes to hubs that are currently served by smaller equipment, including CRJs, just does not seem like a reasonable expectation unless their demand skyrockets overnight. I think you will have to go through a CR7-> E175 phase before you see 160 or 172 seat 738s anywhere, or even 319s or MD82/83 while they last. CMH only has (1) occasional mainline flight to PHL and no Mainline to CLT at all, even though our traffic on AA is far above CVG. Even if AA undertook a major ad campaign and really pushed itself in the market, they would also run up against the fares of the ULCCs. Further, it is not like there is a huge AAdvantage base there that will ignore fare somewhat to get the miles, status, etc. I would love to see CVG continue its rebirth. It is good for the industry, for our state, and to show there can be life after de-hubbing. But, I just do not see how a bold big future AA operation is a part of that future. Do you have any additional documentation stating that AA is actually planning that type of operation at CVG?


No just employees who are usually a good source of information
 
User avatar
Cvgspotter15
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat May 13, 2017 6:14 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:49 am

Cvgspotter15 wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
AA serves CVG with almost nothing compared to many similar sized airports (just look at CMH/IND, they have 2-3x the amount of AA pax). AA has really fallen behind in recent years, historically CVG's #2 carrier, they are now trailing behind DL/F9/G4 and WN/UA are quickly catching up. Here is the current schedule for the Spring at CVG, that is only 30 daily flights, half of which are on </= 50 seat RJ's.
JFK: 1xE145
LGA: 2xE140
DCA: 2xCR2, 1xCR7
MIA: 1xE145
ORD: 4xE145, 2xE175, 1xCR7
CLT: 5xCR9, 2xCR2
PHL: 2xCR9, 1xE175, 1xCR7, 1xCR2
DFW: 2xMD80, 1xE140, 1xE175

This totals to about 400,000 AA emplacements per year, pretty paltry compared to peer airports. For the 8 month period of April-Dec 2018, AA will enplane 600,000 pax, or a rate of 800,000 per year. So, doubling the pax numbers is not all that large. A simple upgrading of all the ERJ-140/145/CRJ-200 flights gets you most of the way there, plus a few added frequencies and LAX or PHX, but I am not sure its quite double, not sure what else they will do.

We will see what happens, I can guarantee with 100% certainty that AA is moving to Concourse B by April 1st and that they plan on enplaning double the number of passengers for 2018. (How they plan on doing that, I honestly have no clue :smile: ) Also, 16 new shops and about 10 new restaurants will be built mostly in Concourse B (some in A as well) in anticipation for continued growth after 2018. Obviously the airport has been working with DL/AA quite a bit, because this is a large investment to bring all these concessions into CVG. I know nothing about the passenger growth besides the 2018 AA numbers and CVG hitting 9 million pax for 2018. Beyond that, obviously the airport knows significant expansion will continue, but only the airport/airlines know what that entails.


Okay, I do not want to sound like a Debbie Downer here, but I think you maybe underestimating what is needed to double passenger numbers from a single airport on a single airline in a year. Especially in a market that has become as hyper-competitive as CVG. With DL still there, the ULCCs ramping up, and WN, how will AA be able to stimulate that much market growth in a single year? AA does not fly empty planes around, so going to mainline on routes to hubs that are currently served by smaller equipment, including CRJs, just does not seem like a reasonable expectation unless their demand skyrockets overnight. I think you will have to go through a CR7-> E175 phase before you see 160 or 172 seat 738s anywhere, or even 319s or MD82/83 while they last. CMH only has (1) occasional mainline flight to PHL and no Mainline to CLT at all, even though our traffic on AA is far above CVG. Even if AA undertook a major ad campaign and really pushed itself in the market, they would also run up against the fares of the ULCCs. Further, it is not like there is a huge AAdvantage base there that will ignore fare somewhat to get the miles, status, etc. I would love to see CVG continue its rebirth. It is good for the industry, for our state, and to show there can be life after de-hubbing. But, I just do not see how a bold big future AA operation is a part of that future. Do you have any additional documentation stating that AA is actually planning that type of operation at CVG?


No just employees who are usually a good source of information


And it’s not an “operation”
 
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Cvgspotter15
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:52 am

Cvgspotter15 wrote:
Cvgspotter15 wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:

Okay, I do not want to sound like a Debbie Downer here, but I think you maybe underestimating what is needed to double passenger numbers from a single airport on a single airline in a year. Especially in a market that has become as hyper-competitive as CVG. With DL still there, the ULCCs ramping up, and WN, how will AA be able to stimulate that much market growth in a single year? AA does not fly empty planes around, so going to mainline on routes to hubs that are currently served by smaller equipment, including CRJs, just does not seem like a reasonable expectation unless their demand skyrockets overnight. I think you will have to go through a CR7-> E175 phase before you see 160 or 172 seat 738s anywhere, or even 319s or MD82/83 while they last. CMH only has (1) occasional mainline flight to PHL and no Mainline to CLT at all, even though our traffic on AA is far above CVG. Even if AA undertook a major ad campaign and really pushed itself in the market, they would also run up against the fares of the ULCCs. Further, it is not like there is a huge AAdvantage base there that will ignore fare somewhat to get the miles, status, etc. I would love to see CVG continue its rebirth. It is good for the industry, for our state, and to show there can be life after de-hubbing. But, I just do not see how a bold big future AA operation is a part of that future. Do you have any additional documentation stating that AA is actually planning that type of operation at CVG?


No just employees who are usually a good source of information


And it’s not an “operation”


Also the airport saying there will be a 1.5 million passenger airline moving to b sand the additions of a lot concessions.
 
cvgComair
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Cvgspotter15 wrote:
When do we believe this will be announced? The SY, AA, and possibly WN announcements have to be soon since we are talking about spring/summer here which is soon.

SY just added two new routes from MSP starting in May, since CVG/IND/MKE are supposed to start in mid-Summer, I think we still have a month or two. AA, I have no clue, I really don't know what to expect. We know for almost 100% certainty that they are expanding, but how, I honestly have no clue. If WN is making PHX year round, they must just be trying to figure out plane scheduling, I would expect that pretty soon. The next schedule release comes out in February, though.

Cvgspotter15 wrote:
Also the airport saying there will be a 1.5 million passenger airline moving to b sand the additions of a lot concessions.

Just so we don't confuse: 600,000 AA emplanements are moving from A to B, which is 1.2 million passengers for April to December. This is a rate of 800,000 emplanements for a year and 1.6 million passengers. This is double AA's current 400,000 emplanements and 0.8 million pax. The concession breakdown is 10 in B, 5 in A, 1 in T3, plus ~10 restaurants scattered through out A and B.

brooklynchris13 wrote:
Okay, I do not want to sound like a Debbie Downer here, but I think you maybe underestimating what is needed to double passenger numbers from a single airport on a single airline in a year. Especially in a market that has become as hyper-competitive as CVG. With DL still there, the ULCCs ramping up, and WN, how will AA be able to stimulate that much market growth in a single year? AA does not fly empty planes around, so going to mainline on routes to hubs that are currently served by smaller equipment, including CRJs, just does not seem like a reasonable expectation unless their demand skyrockets overnight. I think you will have to go through a CR7-> E175 phase before you see 160 or 172 seat 738s anywhere, or even 319s or MD82/83 while they last. CMH only has (1) occasional mainline flight to PHL and no Mainline to CLT at all, even though our traffic on AA is far above CVG. Even if AA undertook a major ad campaign and really pushed itself in the market, they would also run up against the fares of the ULCCs. Further, it is not like there is a huge AAdvantage base there that will ignore fare somewhat to get the miles, status, etc. I would love to see CVG continue its rebirth. It is good for the industry, for our state, and to show there can be life after de-hubbing. But, I just do not see how a bold big future AA operation is a part of that future. Do you have any additional documentation stating that AA is actually planning that type of operation at CVG?

In fact, I actually do. I did not just come up with this prediction myself. Since CVG is a public entity, they must put details up about projects for bidding online so the public and businesses can view them. Most of the details are hidden to non-bidders for obvious reasons, but this is visible:
https://www.planetbids.com/KCAB/BMfiles/20171201085318199%2017-87RFP%20Concession%20-%20News-Gift-Retail%20-%20%20Addendum%204.pdf

Believe me, I am as skeptical as you. I am just reporting what their airport is saying. If they are making this prediction as the basis for a very expensive investment, I would assume they are certain such passenger increases are happening.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:34 pm

AA possibly adding CVG-PHX brings up the constant "too many cooks?" dilemma with CVG. G4 (via IWA) and F9 are on the route now, it looks like WN is adding it, and DL could very easily throw a 737 or A320 back on it to throw their hat in the ring. If all that played out, AA would be #5 on the route. They'd have connections on the PHX end, but so would WN. Can the route support all five?
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cvgComair
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:46 pm

I went through the pax numbers for AA and it looks like enplanements will be about 450,000 for AA in 2017, that is pretty good growth already this year. That would mean growth next year for AA would need to be 3x the amount.
 
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:58 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
AA possibly adding CVG-PHX brings up the constant "too many cooks?" dilemma with CVG. G4 (via IWA) and F9 are on the route now, it looks like WN is adding it, and DL could very easily throw a 737 or A320 back on it to throw their hat in the ring. If all that played out, AA would be #5 on the route. They'd have connections on the PHX end, but so would WN. Can the route support all five?

I think AA has the same problem on starting PHX/LAX or upguaguing really any of their current routes. The only thing I can think of is that a few companies signed a contract with AA for flights (like a few did to get WN at CVG).

There is also the possibility that CVG can't do basic math and incorrectly added up passenger numbers. I feel like they would have caught that by now though...
 
brooklynchris13
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:08 pm

cvgComair wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
AA possibly adding CVG-PHX brings up the constant "too many cooks?" dilemma with CVG. G4 (via IWA) and F9 are on the route now, it looks like WN is adding it, and DL could very easily throw a 737 or A320 back on it to throw their hat in the ring. If all that played out, AA would be #5 on the route. They'd have connections on the PHX end, but so would WN. Can the route support all five?

I think AA has the same problem on starting PHX/LAX or upguaguing really any of their current routes. The only thing I can think of is that a few companies signed a contract with AA for flights (like a few did to get WN at CVG).

There is also the possibility that CVG can't do basic math and incorrectly added up passenger numbers. I feel like they would have caught that by now though...


I think there are several possibilities, including bad math, inclusion of visits into the terminal in enplanement numbers to capture concession visits, and possibly others. Further, AA is not going to be in that terminal by themselves are they? Although I too am passionate about research being used to deduce future plans, I also know that using employee rumors to estimate future plans at any operation or organization is risky to say the least. Further, there are always many factors that go into growth, including the ones I and others have mentioned. The biggest clue for me that this is not a realistic estimation of growth are the gates. If AA was going to double passengers they would have to expand their gate capacity and the same document that reveals concession estimates does not indicate a significant growth in gates. In addition, if I recall correctly, there is an AA contract issue regarding mainline and underwing services. If any airport has more than "XX" mainline flights, they are not allowed to outsource underwing services. If I recall, the number is either 8 or 10, but that could have changed. All in all, I hope to see American grow at CVG, but any expectation of spectacular growth without necessary contributors such as: massive advertising in the CVG market; additional gates; added frequencies/upguages on the OAG report; significant corporate contracts; etc. just seems suspect. Time will tell.
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cvgComair
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:25 pm

brooklynchris13 wrote:
I think there are several possibilities, including bad math, inclusion of visits into the terminal in enplanement numbers to capture concession visits, and possibly others. Further, AA is not going to be in that terminal by themselves are they? The biggest clue for me that this is not a realistic estimation of growth are the gates. If AA was going to double passengers they would have to expand their gate capacity and the same document that reveals concession estimates does not indicate a significant growth in gates.

Currently Concourse B is Delta only, who built the concourse with its own money. DL is terminating its exclusive lease to the Concourse, allowing AA to move in. If they are just upgauging routes (I am talking about more E175's/CR9's, not mainline) to a similar level like CMH, they are not going to need any additional gates. They also have pretty low utilization on their current gates in Concourse A, so if they were not planning on growth, I would have expected them to take less gates in B. (As a side note, some of the gates AA is taking in B were built for DL's 757's/767's, they are so large that two RJ's could fit at each gate if they wanted to, DL did this for many years after vacating Concourse A). Since 2017 AA numbers are around 450,000 enplaned, I am going to assume CVG "rounded" the numbers a little, so that could mean the growth rate could be closer to 50-75%, which would be more doable by just upgrading smaller RJ's to larger RJ's. One thing I find odd is that the growth estimates do not include any predicted growth for DL, when they have 11% seat growth YOY already scheduled. I think we will just have to see.
 
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Cvgspotter15
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:05 pm

Stats released for November, another great month! (They were released last week but no posts have been made I don’t think).

Monthly Passenger: Up 14.6%
Yearly Passenger: 15.7% and we are sitting at 7.2 on the year so looks like we will be at a little over 7.8 million at the end of the year.

Also movements up 13.5% for November and a little over 9% for the year!
 
brooklynchris13
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:06 pm

cvgComair wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
I think there are several possibilities, including bad math, inclusion of visits into the terminal in enplanement numbers to capture concession visits, and possibly others. Further, AA is not going to be in that terminal by themselves are they? The biggest clue for me that this is not a realistic estimation of growth are the gates. If AA was going to double passengers they would have to expand their gate capacity and the same document that reveals concession estimates does not indicate a significant growth in gates.

Currently Concourse B is Delta only, who built the concourse with its own money. DL is terminating its exclusive lease to the Concourse, allowing AA to move in. If they are just upgauging routes (I am talking about more E175's/CR9's, not mainline) to a similar level like CMH, they are not going to need any additional gates. They also have pretty low utilization on their current gates in Concourse A, so if they were not planning on growth, I would have expected them to take less gates in B. (As a side note, some of the gates AA is taking in B were built for DL's 757's/767's, they are so large that two RJ's could fit at each gate if they wanted to, DL did this for many years after vacating Concourse A). Since 2017 AA numbers are around 450,000 enplaned, I am going to assume CVG "rounded" the numbers a little, so that could mean the growth rate could be closer to 50-75%, which would be more doable by just upgrading smaller RJ's to larger RJ's. One thing I find odd is that the growth estimates do not include any predicted growth for DL, when they have 11% seat growth YOY already scheduled. I think we will just have to see.


Thanks for the insight, but I think the very important point here that seems to be getting missed is this: increased size of aircraft is not the thing that drives passenger growth. Increased passenger growth is what drives increases in aircraft size/number of frequencies. AA (or any other airline) is not going to just put a larger plane on a route to get growth. If they did it that way, they would have to sell the additional seats at such a discounted rate then they would not make money and they would have the risk of not selling the seats at all. So, there has to be something that will drive AA growth in CVG. That means either some sort of massive marketing push, massive corporate contracts, airport incentives, similar factors or a combination. Until there is an indication of something along that line in the cards for AA at CVG (such as taking over P&G or GE corporate contracts, AA billboards all around I-275, renaming the Great American Ballpark the Great AAmerican Airlines Ballpark") then it just does not seem likely that massive growth will happen. As for gates, CMH has 40+ flights on AA per day with 9 gates, so 30 flights with 5 gates seems to be pretty reasonable. Always better to have a little more capacity than you might need than less, especially with the massive growth that other airlines are experiencing at CVG. Taking an extra gate or two may also serve to protect market share, if the gates are not common use.
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flyguy89
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:32 pm

cvgComair wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
I think there are several possibilities, including bad math, inclusion of visits into the terminal in enplanement numbers to capture concession visits, and possibly others. Further, AA is not going to be in that terminal by themselves are they? The biggest clue for me that this is not a realistic estimation of growth are the gates. If AA was going to double passengers they would have to expand their gate capacity and the same document that reveals concession estimates does not indicate a significant growth in gates.

Currently Concourse B is Delta only, who built the concourse with its own money. DL is terminating its exclusive lease to the Concourse, allowing AA to move in. If they are just upgauging routes (I am talking about more E175's/CR9's, not mainline) to a similar level like CMH, they are not going to need any additional gates. They also have pretty low utilization on their current gates in Concourse A, so if they were not planning on growth, I would have expected them to take less gates in B. (As a side note, some of the gates AA is taking in B were built for DL's 757's/767's, they are so large that two RJ's could fit at each gate if they wanted to, DL did this for many years after vacating Concourse A). Since 2017 AA numbers are around 450,000 enplaned, I am going to assume CVG "rounded" the numbers a little, so that could mean the growth rate could be closer to 50-75%, which would be more doable by just upgrading smaller RJ's to larger RJ's. One thing I find odd is that the growth estimates do not include any predicted growth for DL, when they have 11% seat growth YOY already scheduled. I think we will just have to see.

Are we so sure that the enplanements number is solely going to come from AA? Come May, WOW will also be operating out of B, and I wouldn't be surprised if one other...or a completely new airline were to come to Concourse B, those could account for the numbers gaps. DL has also been growing and will also likely contribute to increased pax number/enplanements in 2018.

Furthermore, when did it become settled fact that SY is coming to CVG? Cincinnati was mentioned as a type of market SY was looking at, but it's never at all been established that they're actually coming to CVG.
 
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:44 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Are we so sure that the enplanements number is solely going to come from AA? Come May, WOW will also be operating out of B, and I wouldn't be surprised if one other...or a completely new airline were to come to Concourse B, those could account for the numbers gaps. DL has also been growing and will also likely contribute to increased pax number/enplanements in 2018.
It does say "American Airlines will be moving from Concourse A to Concourse B by April 1, 2018. This move will cause a shift in enplanements between the two concourses. Approximately 600,000 enplanements will move from Concourse A to Concourse B." I think that is pretty clearly just AA. However, I do find it strange they show no other net change in Concourse B pax numbers, which will increase from WOW and DL growth.
 
flyguy89
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:07 pm

cvgComair wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Are we so sure that the enplanements number is solely going to come from AA? Come May, WOW will also be operating out of B, and I wouldn't be surprised if one other...or a completely new airline were to come to Concourse B, those could account for the numbers gaps. DL has also been growing and will also likely contribute to increased pax number/enplanements in 2018.
It does say "American Airlines will be moving from Concourse A to Concourse B by April 1, 2018. This move will cause a shift in enplanements between the two concourses. Approximately 600,000 enplanements will move from Concourse A to Concourse B." I think that is pretty clearly just AA. However, I do find it strange they show no other net change in Concourse B pax numbers, which will increase from WOW and DL growth.

I think that's the discrepancy. There's probably another unconfirmed airline that will also be moving to B. I'm sure AA will grow as they actually do have a signification AAdvantage base in Cincinnati, but there's probably another airline at play not revealed yet.
 
cvgComair
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:20 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Are we so sure that the enplanements number is solely going to come from AA? Come May, WOW will also be operating out of B, and I wouldn't be surprised if one other...or a completely new airline were to come to Concourse B, those could account for the numbers gaps. DL has also been growing and will also likely contribute to increased pax number/enplanements in 2018.
It does say "American Airlines will be moving from Concourse A to Concourse B by April 1, 2018. This move will cause a shift in enplanements between the two concourses. Approximately 600,000 enplanements will move from Concourse A to Concourse B." I think that is pretty clearly just AA. However, I do find it strange they show no other net change in Concourse B pax numbers, which will increase from WOW and DL growth.

I think that's the discrepancy. There's probably another unconfirmed airline that will also be moving to B. I'm sure AA will grow as they actually do have a signification AAdvantage base in Cincinnati, but there's probably another airline at play not revealed yet.

Yeah, I am sure there is more to this. There is going to be a lot of gate shuffling going on next year to maximize gate usage, I expect carriers will move all over. I think we need to just wait and see, airport project bids are certainly useful (such as discovering WN was coming), but clearly this one is not telling the whole story.
 
ADrum23
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:49 pm

cvgComair wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
It does say "American Airlines will be moving from Concourse A to Concourse B by April 1, 2018. This move will cause a shift in enplanements between the two concourses. Approximately 600,000 enplanements will move from Concourse A to Concourse B." I think that is pretty clearly just AA. However, I do find it strange they show no other net change in Concourse B pax numbers, which will increase from WOW and DL growth.

I think that's the discrepancy. There's probably another unconfirmed airline that will also be moving to B. I'm sure AA will grow as they actually do have a signification AAdvantage base in Cincinnati, but there's probably another airline at play not revealed yet.

Yeah, I am sure there is more to this. There is going to be a lot of gate shuffling going on next year to maximize gate usage, I expect carriers will move all over. I think we need to just wait and see, airport project bids are certainly useful (such as discovering WN was coming), but clearly this one is not telling the whole story.


Like I said before, I wonder if UA could follow AA into B, thus having the legacies and international flights under one roof while A could house all of the LCC's. I'm sure there will still be some gates DL could shed for UA even after the AA move. That would make more room in A, thus delaying the reconstruction/expansion of A for maybe a decade. I could be wrong, but I don't think the A expansion will be required until total traffic exceeds 10-11 million.
 
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AirportRival
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:58 pm

I can say that United was approached first about moving to B and they refused so I don't see that happening.
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ADrum23
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:12 am

AirportRival wrote:
I can say that United was approached first about moving to B and they refused so I don't see that happening.


Why did they refuse?

I guess then I could see F9 going to B if they decide to make CVG a true hub.
 
cvgComair
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:47 am

There appears to be a new cargo airline operating TSN-PVG-ANC-CVG-ORD-ANC-TSN, Yangtze River Express Airlines operating with a B744. It looks like it came for the first time last Saturday and is enroute currently, hopefully it becomes a regular like Singapore Airlines and Aero Union. I am assuming this is for DHL, but is nice to see these new carriers coming in. Certainly an interesting route to say the least...

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/YZR7451
 
jph7291
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:01 am

I do not see F9, G4, WN, or UA moving to Concourse B, for the foreseeable future. During traffic banks, DL occupies most gates already. Giving up these few gates to AA will keep things fairly tight. Maybe one lone B gate goes to a random future carrier, e.g. AS, otherwise I see irreconcilable encroachment on the DL hub ops. Of course all of that assumes DL keeps things around 80-90 daily flights with about four well-defined arrivals/departures banks. They are showing consistent signs of growth, so that makes all of this Concourse B activity even tighter.
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cvgComair
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:24 am

Vacation Express is adding flights from CVG to FPO and CZM, they will start on May 30th and May 24th respectively. Both routes are being operated by Swift air. Nice to see FPO return after they exited the Bahamas last year and a new destination. If I am not mistaken, this is the first scheduled service between CVG and CZM, oddly enough I don't think DL ever operated it. https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2 ... 975243001/
 
DeltaRules
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:28 pm

DL is dropping DAY-LGA. AA is still on the route.

DeltaRules wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
Good morning all. On the CMH side, has anyone received any indication of how the advance bookings for Spirit are looking or confirmation about their gate location? I was in the terminal yesterday but did not see any indications of where they are going to end up. Going back to the October numbers, one item that stood out was that every carrier posted a gain in passenger numbers, which is promising. Recent months for American had shown slight declines, but it appears the consistent growth has returned and is benefiting all carriers. If it continues, looks like 8 million passengers will be doable in 2018.


Gate is still TBD. Apparently they're still working on the "logistics".

I also saw the growth on the part of every airline, which is encouraging- G4 put up some pretty impressive numbers at LCK as well (they were actually notably bigger than F9 in October and put up numbers comparable to UA in July). With 6.2M as of October and two months with busy travel periods unaccounted for, I would think if Spirit can do fairly well in their first year that 8 million could be doable, especially with seven destinations right out of the gate.

What I'm curious is to how cozy Nardone might be with DL and NK given both airlines' ties to DTW and if he could parlay that into expansion by one or both.


Spirit will operate from B at CMH, "leaked" in a video about concessions on CMH's Twitter today. Going to assume it's B36.

https://twitter.com/columbusairport/sta ... 1959770113
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brooklynchris13
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:19 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
DL is dropping DAY-LGA. AA is still on the route.

DeltaRules wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
Good morning all. On the CMH side, has anyone received any indication of how the advance bookings for Spirit are looking or confirmation about their gate location? I was in the terminal yesterday but did not see any indications of where they are going to end up. Going back to the October numbers, one item that stood out was that every carrier posted a gain in passenger numbers, which is promising. Recent months for American had shown slight declines, but it appears the consistent growth has returned and is benefiting all carriers. If it continues, looks like 8 million passengers will be doable in 2018.


Gate is still TBD. Apparently they're still working on the "logistics".

I also saw the growth on the part of every airline, which is encouraging- G4 put up some pretty impressive numbers at LCK as well (they were actually notably bigger than F9 in October and put up numbers comparable to UA in July). With 6.2M as of October and two months with busy travel periods unaccounted for, I would think if Spirit can do fairly well in their first year that 8 million could be doable, especially with seven destinations right out of the gate.

What I'm curious is to how cozy Nardone might be with DL and NK given both airlines' ties to DTW and if he could parlay that into expansion by one or both.


Spirit will operate from B at CMH, "leaked" in a video about concessions on CMH's Twitter today. Going to assume it's B36.

https://twitter.com/columbusairport/sta ... 1959770113


That does not shock me at all. I think it was in DEN that Spirit and Frontier share gates, maybe they have a "thing". However, that makes me wonder if there are more newcomers to come in the new year. I agree with you about the new CEO. Relationships are an under appreciated element of many parts of business. Maybe this can lead to some growth in unexpected areas.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all my fellow A-Netters... from the Admirals Club at DFW waiting on an A319 for CMH.
"Be the change you want to see in the world" (mg)
 
DeltaRules
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Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:08 am

brooklynchris13 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
DL is dropping DAY-LGA. AA is still on the route.

DeltaRules wrote:

Gate is still TBD. Apparently they're still working on the "logistics".

I also saw the growth on the part of every airline, which is encouraging- G4 put up some pretty impressive numbers at LCK as well (they were actually notably bigger than F9 in October and put up numbers comparable to UA in July). With 6.2M as of October and two months with busy travel periods unaccounted for, I would think if Spirit can do fairly well in their first year that 8 million could be doable, especially with seven destinations right out of the gate.

What I'm curious is to how cozy Nardone might be with DL and NK given both airlines' ties to DTW and if he could parlay that into expansion by one or both.


Spirit will operate from B at CMH, "leaked" in a video about concessions on CMH's Twitter today. Going to assume it's B36.

https://twitter.com/columbusairport/sta ... 1959770113


That does not shock me at all. I think it was in DEN that Spirit and Frontier share gates, maybe they have a "thing". However, that makes me wonder if there are more newcomers to come in the new year. I agree with you about the new CEO. Relationships are an under appreciated element of many parts of business. Maybe this can lead to some growth in unexpected areas.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all my fellow A-Netters... from the Admirals Club at DFW waiting on an A319 for CMH.


Frontier is at B35- it is interesting the two ULCCs at CMH will (probably) be next-door neighbors, though.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
CMHMarc787
Posts: 88
Joined: Sat Nov 23, 2013 9:09 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:48 pm

DeltaRules wrote:
DL is dropping DAY-LGA. AA is still on the route.

DeltaRules wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
Good morning all. On the CMH side, has anyone received any indication of how the advance bookings for Spirit are looking or confirmation about their gate location? I was in the terminal yesterday but did not see any indications of where they are going to end up. Going back to the October numbers, one item that stood out was that every carrier posted a gain in passenger numbers, which is promising. Recent months for American had shown slight declines, but it appears the consistent growth has returned and is benefiting all carriers. If it continues, looks like 8 million passengers will be doable in 2018.


Gate is still TBD. Apparently they're still working on the "logistics".

I also saw the growth on the part of every airline, which is encouraging- G4 put up some pretty impressive numbers at LCK as well (they were actually notably bigger than F9 in October and put up numbers comparable to UA in July). With 6.2M as of October and two months with busy travel periods unaccounted for, I would think if Spirit can do fairly well in their first year that 8 million could be doable, especially with seven destinations right out of the gate.

What I'm curious is to how cozy Nardone might be with DL and NK given both airlines' ties to DTW and if he could parlay that into expansion by one or both.


Spirit will operate from B at CMH, "leaked" in a video about concessions on CMH's Twitter today. Going to assume it's B36.

https://twitter.com/columbusairport/sta ... 1959770113



B36 has no jetway so, unless they put one back in, that won't be the gate.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2527
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:27 pm

Just flew out of Concourse B at CVG today for the first time in a while and can't believe how much has been shuttered concessions-wise. The retail store next to Brook's Brothers is gone and Wolfgang Puck and Great American Bagel have all closed. Even more glad now that AA will be migrating over to B to breathe some much-needed life back into the place and make it hopping again.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:09 pm

I haven't been paying attention to this, but CVG-CDG loads have been very strong recently!
May '17: 90% ('16 was 82%)
June '17: 93% ('16 was 84%)

On a different note, does anyone know what CVG plans on doing with gate A15 after AA moves to B? Also, what is the current status and/or future use of A1/2/4?
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2527
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:03 am

cvgComair wrote:
I haven't been paying attention to this, but CVG-CDG loads have been very strong recently!
May '17: 90% ('16 was 82%)
June '17: 93% ('16 was 84%)

On a different note, does anyone know what CVG plans on doing with gate A15 after AA moves to B? Also, what is the current status and/or future use of A1/2/4?

Wow, those are pretty stellar loads. IIRC from when someone posted the historical loads for the flight earlier, those are the highest loads the flight has seen for those months in a while. Between the national economy doing well and the Cincinnati economy surging ahead as of late, CVG-CDG must be benefiting nicely.
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 4899
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:20 am

CMHMarc787 wrote:
DeltaRules wrote:
DL is dropping DAY-LGA. AA is still on the route.

DeltaRules wrote:

Gate is still TBD. Apparently they're still working on the "logistics".

I also saw the growth on the part of every airline, which is encouraging- G4 put up some pretty impressive numbers at LCK as well (they were actually notably bigger than F9 in October and put up numbers comparable to UA in July). With 6.2M as of October and two months with busy travel periods unaccounted for, I would think if Spirit can do fairly well in their first year that 8 million could be doable, especially with seven destinations right out of the gate.

What I'm curious is to how cozy Nardone might be with DL and NK given both airlines' ties to DTW and if he could parlay that into expansion by one or both.


Spirit will operate from B at CMH, "leaked" in a video about concessions on CMH's Twitter today. Going to assume it's B36.

https://twitter.com/columbusairport/sta ... 1959770113



B36 has no jetway so, unless they put one back in, that won't be the gate.


I figure that's what'll happen.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
brooklynchris13
Posts: 261
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:11 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:11 pm

Okay A-Netters, it is that time again! 2018 Predictions Season! After a 2017 that brought big growth to CVG, tepid but steady growth to CMH, some cuts at DAY, some increases at TOL, consolidations at CLE, and some stops and starts at YNG, what do we think will happen at Ohio Airports next year? Is this the year that DL comes to their senses and rebuilds a $2 billion-dollar reliever hub at CVG? Does a reboot of People’s Express set up shop at ZZV offering $18 fares to DSM, GSP, and TZR? Do we get the long anticipated Southwest non-stop from CVG to DAL? Or does Continental come back from the dead to live at Burke Lakefront?

Or is it a bit blander in the coming year?

My predictions: CMH will not get a transatlantic flight in 2018. Spirit will hit the ground running in Columbus (mostly at the expense of Frontier) and add at least three destinations by the end of the year. Southwest will add at least three cities from CMH and some additional frequencies to try and maintain their market share in CMH in the face of Sprit’s success (AUS, SAN, full-time MSY). Delta will add flights and cities back to CVG as they work to leverage their historic good position there.

What do you think?
"Be the change you want to see in the world" (mg)
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 3931
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:20 pm

brooklynchris13 wrote:
Okay A-Netters, it is that time again! 2018 Predictions Season! After a 2017 that brought big growth to CVG, tepid but steady growth to CMH, some cuts at DAY, some increases at TOL, consolidations at CLE, and some stops and starts at YNG, what do we think will happen at Ohio Airports next year? Is this the year that DL comes to their senses and rebuilds a $2 billion-dollar reliever hub at CVG? Does a reboot of People’s Express set up shop at ZZV offering $18 fares to DSM, GSP, and TZR? Do we get the long anticipated Southwest non-stop from CVG to DAL? Or does Continental come back from the dead to live at Burke Lakefront?

Or is it a bit blander in the coming year?

My predictions: CMH will not get a transatlantic flight in 2018. Spirit will hit the ground running in Columbus (mostly at the expense of Frontier) and add at least three destinations by the end of the year. Southwest will add at least three cities from CMH and some additional frequencies to try and maintain their market share in CMH in the face of Sprit’s success (AUS, SAN, full-time MSY). Delta will add flights and cities back to CVG as they work to leverage their historic good position there.

What do you think?


For me this seems reasonable

Delta
CMH-CDG or AMS
CMH-SLC/SEA
CMH-MCO year-round
CVG-AUS

Southwest
CMH-LAX and/or SAN
CMH-NYC
CMH-AUS
CVG-West/Florida

Alaska
CMH-SEA (if DL doesn't do it first or vice versa)

Jetblue:
CVG or CMH-BOS/MCO/FLL

Allegiant
CVG-int'l
CMH-AZA/LAX/LAS
DAY-more florida and southeast
Last edited by Midwestindy on Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Delta Diamond Medallion and AAdvantage Gold for 2019
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 825
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:25 pm

brooklynchris13 wrote:
Okay A-Netters, it is that time again! 2018 Predictions Season! After a 2017 that brought big growth to CVG, tepid but steady growth to CMH, some cuts at DAY, some increases at TOL, consolidations at CLE, and some stops and starts at YNG, what do we think will happen at Ohio Airports next year? Is this the year that DL comes to their senses and rebuilds a $2 billion-dollar reliever hub at CVG? Does a reboot of People’s Express set up shop at ZZV offering $18 fares to DSM, GSP, and TZR? Do we get the long anticipated Southwest non-stop from CVG to DAL? Or does Continental come back from the dead to live at Burke Lakefront?

Or is it a bit blander in the coming year?

My predictions: CMH will not get a transatlantic flight in 2018. Spirit will hit the ground running in Columbus (mostly at the expense of Frontier) and add at least three destinations by the end of the year. Southwest will add at least three cities from CMH and some additional frequencies to try and maintain their market share in CMH in the face of Sprit’s success (AUS, SAN, full-time MSY). Delta will add flights and cities back to CVG as they work to leverage their historic good position there.

What do you think?


I agree about CMH, especially with so many other cities in the region getting new/additional TATL this upcoming summer. CMH is going to have to wait now and see how things shake out It's also not going to happen without a subsidy so it's on the airport authority there.

WN will not add CVG-DAL. They will start DEN and probably something like STL or ATL. Not sure about BNA but possible too. Weekenders to Florida are possible although there's so much ULCC presence at CVG it's going to be difficult for WN to do leisure from there. Maybe PHX (permanent)/LAS by the end of the year? With Hawaii starting up I don't see a massive WN expansion at CVG like ADrum keeps repeating on about.

I, like you, am curious about DL and UA at CVG/CLE. A strong economic year might make both places viable for expansion.
Last edited by izbtmnhd on Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 825
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:31 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
Okay A-Netters, it is that time again! 2018 Predictions Season! After a 2017 that brought big growth to CVG, tepid but steady growth to CMH, some cuts at DAY, some increases at TOL, consolidations at CLE, and some stops and starts at YNG, what do we think will happen at Ohio Airports next year? Is this the year that DL comes to their senses and rebuilds a $2 billion-dollar reliever hub at CVG? Does a reboot of People’s Express set up shop at ZZV offering $18 fares to DSM, GSP, and TZR? Do we get the long anticipated Southwest non-stop from CVG to DAL? Or does Continental come back from the dead to live at Burke Lakefront?

Or is it a bit blander in the coming year?

My predictions: CMH will not get a transatlantic flight in 2018. Spirit will hit the ground running in Columbus (mostly at the expense of Frontier) and add at least three destinations by the end of the year. Southwest will add at least three cities from CMH and some additional frequencies to try and maintain their market share in CMH in the face of Sprit’s success (AUS, SAN, full-time MSY). Delta will add flights and cities back to CVG as they work to leverage their historic good position there.

What do you think?


For me this seems reasonable

Delta
CMH-CDG or AMS
CMH-SLC/SEA
CMH-MCO year-round
CVG-AUS

Southwest
CMH-LAX and/or SAN
CMH-NYC
CMH-AUS
CVG-Texas/Florida

Alaska
CMH-SEA (if DL doesn't do it first or vice versa)

Jetblue:
CVG or CMH-BOS/MCO/FLL

Allegiant
CVG-int'l
CMH-AZA/LAX/LAS
DAY-more florida and southeast


JetBlue doesn't even serve CLE-MCO but now it will be from CVG and CMH? B6 is going to dive into ULCC hell at CVG? I just don't see it with more profitable intl routes to be had from JFK/BOS. I think B6 will wait until the ULCCs find some balance before attempting CVG, if ever. CMH could happen but they might still feel the sting from the first time around there.

WN -- CVG-Texas? CMH-SAN/AUS? That's not happening this year. Especially with Hawaii coming.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2527
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:40 pm

izbtmnhd wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
brooklynchris13 wrote:
Okay A-Netters, it is that time again! 2018 Predictions Season! After a 2017 that brought big growth to CVG, tepid but steady growth to CMH, some cuts at DAY, some increases at TOL, consolidations at CLE, and some stops and starts at YNG, what do we think will happen at Ohio Airports next year? Is this the year that DL comes to their senses and rebuilds a $2 billion-dollar reliever hub at CVG? Does a reboot of People’s Express set up shop at ZZV offering $18 fares to DSM, GSP, and TZR? Do we get the long anticipated Southwest non-stop from CVG to DAL? Or does Continental come back from the dead to live at Burke Lakefront?

Or is it a bit blander in the coming year?

My predictions: CMH will not get a transatlantic flight in 2018. Spirit will hit the ground running in Columbus (mostly at the expense of Frontier) and add at least three destinations by the end of the year. Southwest will add at least three cities from CMH and some additional frequencies to try and maintain their market share in CMH in the face of Sprit’s success (AUS, SAN, full-time MSY). Delta will add flights and cities back to CVG as they work to leverage their historic good position there.

What do you think?


For me this seems reasonable

Delta
CMH-CDG or AMS
CMH-SLC/SEA
CMH-MCO year-round
CVG-AUS

Southwest
CMH-LAX and/or SAN
CMH-NYC
CMH-AUS
CVG-Texas/Florida

Alaska
CMH-SEA (if DL doesn't do it first or vice versa)

Jetblue:
CVG or CMH-BOS/MCO/FLL

Allegiant
CVG-int'l
CMH-AZA/LAX/LAS
DAY-more florida and southeast


JetBlue doesn't even serve CLE-MCO but now it will be from CVG and CMH? B6 is going to dive into ULCC hell at CVG? I just don't see it with more profitable intl routes to be had from JFK/BOS. I think B6 will wait until the ULCCs find some balance before attempting CVG, if ever. CMH could happen but they might still feel the sting from the first time around there.

WN -- CVG-Texas? CMH-SAN/AUS? That's not happening this year. Especially with Hawaii coming.

Yet somehow B6 made the plunge into the ULCC hell that is also CLE. Clearly as their addition at CLE demonstrates, they're not afraid to jump into a heated market.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:41 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
izbtmnhd wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

For me this seems reasonable

Delta
CMH-CDG or AMS
CMH-SLC/SEA
CMH-MCO year-round
CVG-AUS

Southwest
CMH-LAX and/or SAN
CMH-NYC
CMH-AUS
CVG-Texas/Florida

Alaska
CMH-SEA (if DL doesn't do it first or vice versa)

Jetblue:
CVG or CMH-BOS/MCO/FLL

Allegiant
CVG-int'l
CMH-AZA/LAX/LAS
DAY-more florida and southeast


JetBlue doesn't even serve CLE-MCO but now it will be from CVG and CMH? B6 is going to dive into ULCC hell at CVG? I just don't see it with more profitable intl routes to be had from JFK/BOS. I think B6 will wait until the ULCCs find some balance before attempting CVG, if ever. CMH could happen but they might still feel the sting from the first time around there.

WN -- CVG-Texas? CMH-SAN/AUS? That's not happening this year. Especially with Hawaii coming.

Yet somehow B6 made the plunge into the ULCC hell that is also CLE. Clearly as their addition at CLE demonstrates, they're not afraid to jump into a heated market.

While CVG-Florida is crowded, CVG-BOS is a monopoly with DL, which has driven fares to almost double the average. I think CVG-BOS would be a very smart route for them, certainly less competition than surrounding cities like CMH/IND where there are multiple carriers on XXX-BOS.
 
izbtmnhd
Posts: 825
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Re: The Rest Of Ohio - 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:00 pm

CLE ULCCs presence wasn't nearly at the level of what CVG is now and even with that fact there is no B6 CLE-MCO.

Comair brings up a fair point about B6 BOS but I don't see the airline starting CVG just to serve one destination. I certainly could be very wrong about all of this!

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