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YVRing
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:19 am

I thought they said in the article they want to re-negotiate the bi-lateral? Couldn't this include increasing the allowed canada-us that CX can fly? I assume AC would support it with their increasing ties. AC could even codeshare on it.
 
CX Flyboy
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:40 am

MAH4546 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
CX Flyboy wrote:

Same reason CX use a 77W between YVR-JFK?

Not really. MIA is not JFK. The YVR stop on the HKG-JFK route was always a glorified tech stop. CX doesn't need the YVR stop to make HKG-JFK a successful route but apparently they need it to make HKG-MIA work.

So here's my question: If they're only allowed 7 weekly frequencies, why not replace the JFK stop with a MIA stop?


Cathay Pacific is long established in the JFK-YVR market, has a very loyal following and a monopoly on the route. I think they are happy flying it - they have flown it for maybe 20+ years now, and even all the additional non-stop capacity to JFK and EWR hasn't led to it being discontinued.


Actually with increased competition on the YVR-JFK route the loads are not particularly good recently. Thought is being given to whether it should be continued or not.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:15 am

CX Flyboy wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Not really. MIA is not JFK. The YVR stop on the HKG-JFK route was always a glorified tech stop. CX doesn't need the YVR stop to make HKG-JFK a successful route but apparently they need it to make HKG-MIA work.

So here's my question: If they're only allowed 7 weekly frequencies, why not replace the JFK stop with a MIA stop?


Cathay Pacific is long established in the JFK-YVR market, has a very loyal following and a monopoly on the route. I think they are happy flying it - they have flown it for maybe 20+ years now, and even all the additional non-stop capacity to JFK and EWR hasn't led to it being discontinued.


Actually with increased competition on the YVR-JFK route the loads are not particularly good recently. Thought is being given to whether it should be continued or not.


What competition? Delta flies the route seasonally, for a grand total of 12 weeks in the summer. Otherwise it's a CX monopoly to JFK.
a.
 
MD80MKE
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:37 am

Doesn't Philippine Airlines also fly YVR-JFK?
 
jfk777
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:53 am

When Cathay started JFK, Vancouver was the stop since a 744 couldn't fly nonstop both ways to Hong Kong, but the days of flying from JFK to YVR should end. CX flies to JFK 4 times daily, with 3 nonstops and 1 via YVR, the need for stopping no longer exists. Is there a reason not obvious as to why CX still flies Vancouver to JFK ?
 
airbazar
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:33 pm

jfk777 wrote:
When Cathay started JFK, Vancouver was the stop since a 744 couldn't fly nonstop both ways to Hong Kong, but the days of flying from JFK to YVR should end. CX flies to JFK 4 times daily, with 3 nonstops and 1 via YVR, the need for stopping no longer exists. Is there a reason not obvious as to why CX still flies Vancouver to JFK ?

As stated above, they enjoy a monopoly on the route, as small as the market might be. And they've been doing it for a long time so customers know about it. But I suspect that another reason is to keep the 5th freedom allowance alive. Canada may feel inclined to end that allowance if they stop flying it, and if they're at least breaking even on the route, they may as well keep it.
 
jfk777
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:28 pm

airbazar wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
When Cathay started JFK, Vancouver was the stop since a 744 couldn't fly nonstop both ways to Hong Kong, but the days of flying from JFK to YVR should end. CX flies to JFK 4 times daily, with 3 nonstops and 1 via YVR, the need for stopping no longer exists. Is there a reason not obvious as to why CX still flies Vancouver to JFK ?

As stated above, they enjoy a monopoly on the route, as small as the market might be. And they've been doing it for a long time so customers know about it. But I suspect that another reason is to keep the 5th freedom allowance alive. Canada may feel inclined to end that allowance if they stop flying it, and if they're at least breaking even on the route, they may as well keep it.



Cathay's core is Hong Kong and flying between there nonstop to JFK and cities it serves. Vancouver to JFK needs to go away, but that logic CX should have one of its LHR flights stop on its way to London too. Cathay does what it does best by flying nonstop, even if it is 16 hours flying time to the USA's east coast.
 
CX Flyboy
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 1:00 am

airbazar wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
When Cathay started JFK, Vancouver was the stop since a 744 couldn't fly nonstop both ways to Hong Kong, but the days of flying from JFK to YVR should end. CX flies to JFK 4 times daily, with 3 nonstops and 1 via YVR, the need for stopping no longer exists. Is there a reason not obvious as to why CX still flies Vancouver to JFK ?

As stated above, they enjoy a monopoly on the route, as small as the market might be. And they've been doing it for a long time so customers know about it. But I suspect that another reason is to keep the 5th freedom allowance alive. Canada may feel inclined to end that allowance if they stop flying it, and if they're at least breaking even on the route, they may as well keep it.



Philippine Airlines flies YVR-JFK as well now.
 
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alex0easy
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:43 am

Don't know where HU is gonna launch MIA from. I'm pretty sure Chinese carriers have run out of traffic rights in Zone 1 (PEK/PVG/CAN)-US (180/week). So if HU starts MIA it's either from a secondary city or cutting some existing frequencies.
 
DaufuskieGuy
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:13 am

HKG-YVR-MIA: given all the Asian flights dep. LAX/DFW etc. i don't see what adding YVR as another stop over option (and then overflies Japan, Korea, China) does for the MIA route network. I mean AA could have one plane service over LAX and or DFW continuing to MIA (and maybe they already do?), that's much the same thing. What I think makes sense is HKG-NRT-MIA with AA/JL code share, feed from South America on AA and Asia on JL/CX. There has to be enough PDEW MIA-NRT plus connecting pax to make the numbers work, particularly on the 330 (though that might be a struggle westbound?).

To me MIA-North America city-HKG is a little reminiscent of the KL BOS-ICN which was via JFK....
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:40 am

jfk777 wrote:
a 744 couldn't fly nonstop both ways to Hong Kong,

Not exactly true. It could do it, just not with the payload numbers CX wanted. UA did it both ways with 744s, but the payload hit they had to take could sometimes mean blocking up to 8 rows.



jfk777 wrote:
but the days of flying from JFK to YVR should end.

Um, why?

It's profitable despite the nonstop HKG-JFK competition, has merited against the opportunity cost for years on end (this part is key!), and for parts of the year it's a monopoly.... why on earth would they end it??
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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VCEflyboy
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:10 pm

please delete
Last edited by VCEflyboy on Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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VCEflyboy
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:12 pm

VCEflyboy wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Not really. MIA is not JFK. The YVR stop on the HKG-JFK route was always a glorified tech stop. CX doesn't need the YVR stop to make HKG-JFK a successful route but apparently they need it to make HKG-MIA work.

So here's my question: If they're only allowed 7 weekly frequencies, why not replace the JFK stop with a MIA stop?


Cathay Pacific is long established in the JFK-YVR market, has a very loyal following and a monopoly on the route. I think they are happy flying it - they have flown it for maybe 20+ years now, and even all the additional non-stop capacity to JFK and EWR hasn't led to it being discontinued.


Long established yes, but definitely not a monopoly!
DL and PR also fly the route.
 
B752OS
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:31 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
VCEflyboy wrote:
I don't understand. CX could fly HKG YVR MIA tomorrow. They just wouldn't be able to sell the tickets between YVR and MIA which anyways would sell for peanuts because the route is not premium heavy and there's lots of competition with one-stop options. YVR could be a good tech stop. I don't see why the bilateral needs revising.


Not being able to sell tickets on the local sector is a deal breaker, especially for a route of that length.

And Miami-Vancouver does happen to be the single largest U.S.-Canada market without a non-stop.


Curious why AA or AC does not fly MIA-YVR? Not even seasonally?
 
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VCEflyboy
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:14 pm

Let alone AA and AC, westjet doesn't fly the route either..
 
jbpdx
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:15 pm

B752OS wrote:

Curious why AA or AC does not fly MIA-YVR? Not even seasonally?


AA doesn't even fly MIA-PDX---> yet. Gotta keep those SLC, DEN, DFW hubs humming.
^
 
MAH4546
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:21 pm

VCEflyboy wrote:
Let alone AA and AC, westjet doesn't fly the route either..


I wouldn't be shocked if WestJet enters the market from FLL. They fly nonstop from FLL to Winnipeg of all places!
a.
 
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par13del
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:42 pm

Well just to throw another thought out there, the Chinese are completing a billion dollar resort (their money) 25mins jet flying time off the Miami coast, they have also taken over the Hilton, are building the Pointe and have plans for a redevelopment of the port area. Whether these will generate traffic from the Far East to the Bahamas is another story, but there will be no direct flights to the Bahamas, but tag on's via AA or UP are doable, even FLL with B6 and WN.
http://www.tribune242.com/news/2016/may ... -baha-mar/
 
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longhauler
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:45 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
What competition? Delta flies the route seasonally, for a grand total of 12 weeks in the summer. Otherwise it's a CX monopoly to JFK.

Other than airlines flying seasonally, CX has a daily 777, PR flies 4 times a week with a 777 and AC flies to EWR with a daily 787.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
B752OS
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:58 pm

How do traffic flows from South America to/from Asia go? Which hubs see the most amount of traffic going between the two continents? Would MIA be able to connect people flying from China to Chile?
 
MD80MKE
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sun Jan 08, 2017 1:46 am

B752OS wrote:
How do traffic flows from South America to/from Asia go? Which hubs see the most amount of traffic going between the two continents? Would MIA be able to connect people flying from China to Chile?

I'm not entirely sure about the total traffic amount. But personally I know some ppl from China take the one stop option in Dallas on AA onto Santiago. Chile is a real hot destination for Chinese capital investment recently. BTW I heard if you have an American visa you don't have to have one for Chile to go there. So a US stop makes the routing viable. But definitely a stop in Europe (e.g. Spain) would also be a popular routing.
 
DaufuskieGuy
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:40 am

B752OS wrote:
How do traffic flows from South America to/from Asia go? Which hubs see the most amount of traffic going between the two continents? Would MIA be able to connect people flying from China to Chile?


China to Chile I think is best with AA via DFW, and in fact generally speaking DFW is the best connector point for Asia and SA (based on its "on the way" location and # of destinations served). MIA does see some SA destinations that DFW does not though.
So for that reason among others I think there could still be enough demand for MIA NRT (with a tag to any number of cities) - HKG seems best since CX is already interested and part of One World.
 
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Miami
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:29 am

CX and AC will begin codesharing.

Rumors around MIA was that a codeshare would better help the chances.
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
Aither
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:18 am

KTPAFlyer wrote:
The thing I'm a bit confused about is how much these guys going off AA/oneworld connections vs O/D on both sides. Whoever launches this MIA-Asia flight will be the only one for a while until others gauge how much of a success (or failure) it was. That said, the only other real option in the southeastern US currently is DL/KE at ATL. However, the KE flight is targeted at O/D while the DL flight captures the connections. If a MIA flight were to launch, only JAL and CX have any incentive to launch Florida for AA's hub at MIA, with JAL's interest appearing to be virtually nonexistent (possibly to ANA's advantage). If ANA does it, they could pull another EK style move and sidestep to MCO, simply because they know it is only a matter of time before either JAL or CX strikes MIA (albeit, QR came first in this scenario, but my point is the same). Additionally, before the EK/FLL flight, EK/MCO had a huge catchment area of virtually the entire mid to upper region of Florida, even with QR at MIA. While it is true that CX may be looking at MIA, if ANA pulls the trigger first, MIA may be a riskier move for CX. If CX comes first, vice versa. But this is all speculation :D


Agree.
And for Hainan it's just about being there first before anyone else (one international route per Chinese airline policy).
Never trust the obvious
 
Aither
Posts: 1298
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Re: Cathay Pacific and Hainan Considering Miami

Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:28 am

par13del wrote:
Well just to throw another thought out there, the Chinese are completing a billion dollar resort (their money) 25mins jet flying time off the Miami coast, they have also taken over the Hilton, are building the Pointe and have plans for a redevelopment of the port area. Whether these will generate traffic from the Far East to the Bahamas is another story, but there will be no direct flights to the Bahamas, but tag on's via AA or UP are doable, even FLL with B6 and WN.
http://www.tribune242.com/news/2016/may ... -baha-mar/


That's the key point here. There is a strong government support from China to improve service to the Bahamas as China is trying to make the Bahamas/Caribbeans economically dependent of China (it's called geopolitics, and it's an answer of the influence of the US on Taiwan). The question is how HU is going to carry the demand from MIA to the Bahamas/Caribbeans?
Never trust the obvious

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