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Cubsrule
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:59 pm

FlyPNS1 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Right now, DOT data shows about 13 passengers go each way between CVG and BNA each day. Granted, lower WN fares would stimulate more traffic. But assuming WN flew BNA-CVG 2x day and assuming DL abandoned the route because of WN, you'd still have little for O&D. Even if WN quadrupled the market size to 52 passengers a day each way, that's not much on 2x daily 737's that are seating 143 passengers. Plus, the stimulatory effect of WN is tough to measure on a short route like this where the car is your biggest competitor.


I agree on the difficulty to measure. But I'm not sure why we would assume it would only stimulate to 52 PDEW when CMH-BNA is about twice that size.
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SurfandSnow
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:55 pm

flyguychi wrote:
CAK and DAY closing with CVG Announcement:

"We are announcing today the closure of both Akron-Canton (CAK) and Dayton (DAY), the addition of a new Southwest City, Cincinnati (CVG), and the addition of new flights in Cleveland (CLE). The last day of service in CAK and DAY will be on June 3, 2017. The following day, on June 4, 2017, CVG will begin operating with flights to MDW and BWI. Additionally on June 4, 2017, CLE will launch three new flights with daily service between CLE and ATL, and additional frequency between CLE and STL."


No surprises here. WN has been focused on better serving business travelers and the primary airports they prefer for quite some time now, although the airline certainly deserves credit for giving CAK and DAY plenty of opportunities to prove themselves. When you consider the fact that Akron/Canton and Dayton each serve over 1 million people in their namesake metropolitan areas, it's no wonder WN said no to AirTran stations like ABE, BMI, CRW, HSV and LEX.

The Cincinnati metropolitan area was by far the largest and most important domestic market lacking WN service. That dubious distinction will now go to Piedmont Triad (GSO), while the next largest unserved market Harrisburg had AirTran service at the time of acquisition but WN declined to enter MDT in 2012.
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TUSDawg23
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:58 pm

If my memory serves me correctly, CVG used to have some of the highest fares in the country, was a very high cost airport to operate out of, and that combined with DL's presence made it a no go for any LCC. CVG is also located in an area where you have several alternatives within a few hours drive so I think WN has relied on these alternatives(DAY, SDF, IND, CMH). But now with DL's presence sizeably reduced, CVG needed to find ways to attract other carriers and one of these ways is to lower their costs of doing business. I'm surprised it took WN this long, but CVG will be a great fit for them.
 
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mariner
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:15 am

TUSDawg23 wrote:
If my memory serves me correctly, CVG used to have some of the highest fares in the country, was a very high cost airport to operate out of, and that combined with DL's presence made it a no go for any LCC.


But it was the arrival of two LCC's, Frontier and Allegiant, that helped cause airfares at CVG to drop as dramatically as they have.

http://www.nkychamber.com/news/2016/10/ ... re-report/

"CVG drops to #40 in DOT airfare report

AIRFARES DECLINED 13.5% IN SECOND QUARTER 2016

While much of the lower airfare trend can be attributed to low-cost carriers Frontier Airlines and Allegiant Air which serve 26 different airport destinations from CVG and represented 20.2 percent of total passengers during second quarter, other carriers are also growing and contributing to the lower fare environment."


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airzona11
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:18 am

Great addition for Cincy!

It appears with WN doing the above and below servicing, you would think, that they plan to serve more destinations. There current MDW/BWI gives a quick 1 stop to reach the whole WN route map, but we know WN is O/D vs Hub driven (not saying they don't transfer pax). This has to be their smallest station, 8 flights a day with in house staffing above and below the wing?

DAL/LAS/DEN/PHX are probably on deck.
 
phluser
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:25 am

FlyPNS1 wrote:
I don't think that's appealing to WN especially when most of the connecting flow traffic is going to be to Florida which isn't great yields either.


A CVG-BNA flight would be more en route to Texas, the southwest US and So. Cal, and better for connections than CVG-BWI certainly, or CVG-MDW (more detour) to those strong WN markets there, while not being as lengthy of a route like an addition such as CVG-PHX. Most likely WN will want to route Florida traffic through CVG-BWI. CVG-BNA might have a chance albeit slim, but if WN wants to cover CVG-HOU, then that flight might need the Texas/Southwest connecting flows.
 
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jelpee
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:27 am

I wonder what this will do to Allegiant and Frontier that serve CVG? Different non stop destinations for now, but that could change. Being from CVG, I'm looking forward to not being squeezed by Delta and only having Allegient and Frontier as my "competitive" choices.
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UALFAson
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:28 am

Cubsrule wrote:
I agree on the difficulty to measure. But I'm not sure why we would assume it would only stimulate to 52 PDEW when CMH-BNA is about twice that size.


I don't know what the new magic O&D number would be, but, as a fellow Nashvillian, I see these as two different markets.

CMH-BNA is 6 hours each way driving, making a same-day business trip all but impossible. I could get my office to expense that plane ticket if necessary (and have once).

CVG-BNA is 4-4.5 hours each way, drivable round-trip same day if necessary. Flying that instead would mean airport parking/Uber at BNA, a plane ticket for several hundred dollars, and a rental car and gas or another Uber in CVG. All that expense versus, what, 100 bucks for a rental car and gas to save...an hour or two? It sounds like you might be able to get the former expensed, but the overwhelming majority of us are going to be stuck with the latter option.
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:30 am

flyguychi wrote:

CAK and DAY closing with CVG Announcement:

"We are announcing today the closure of both Akron-Canton (CAK) and Dayton (DAY), the addition of a new Southwest City, Cincinnati (CVG), and the addition of new flights in Cleveland (CLE). The last day of service in CAK and DAY will be on June 3, 2017. The following day, on June 4, 2017, CVG will begin operating with flights to MDW and BWI. Additionally on June 4, 2017, CLE will launch three new flights with daily service between CLE and ATL, and additional frequency between CLE and STL."


YAY! Another frequency for STL! OK, it's another flight to feed the STL connecting center, hopefully we'll see a couple more STL adds tomorrow.
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:31 am

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toltommy
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:33 am

Meltshopmax wrote:
There is room to add 4 to 5 bridges to A concourse. ......DL bearly uses B....always empty gates over there.


Except that DL is still under contract for all those gates. If DL is paying for them, they won't be allowing WN to park there. Just as other carriers had to use the other terminals until DL and the airport reached an agreement for the A concourse gates.
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Cubsrule
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:37 am

UALFAson wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
I agree on the difficulty to measure. But I'm not sure why we would assume it would only stimulate to 52 PDEW when CMH-BNA is about twice that size.


I don't know what the new magic O&D number would be, but, as a fellow Nashvillian, I see these as two different markets.

CMH-BNA is 6 hours each way driving, making a same-day business trip all but impossible. I could get my office to expense that plane ticket if necessary (and have once).

CVG-BNA is 4-4.5 hours each way, drivable round-trip same day if necessary. Flying that instead would mean airport parking/Uber at BNA, a plane ticket for several hundred dollars, and a rental car and gas or another Uber in CVG. All that expense versus, what, 100 bucks for a rental car and gas to save...an hour or two? It sounds like you might be able to get the former expensed, but the overwhelming majority of us are going to be stuck with the latter option.


If you want to get a full day of work done and not be totally fried, BNA-CVG is too far for a driving day trip, at least for me. That hour of time savings (and as a frequent traveler to Cincinnati, I think it's closer to two) means as much as 5 or 6 more productive hours, which has a real and significant monetary value. Obviously, not all employers recognize that but many do.
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Mainland
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:50 am

So who drops BWI-CVG first? G4 or DL?
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cvgComair
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:15 am

flyfresno wrote:
I think this move shows why "linear" metro areas like Cincinnati/Dayton and Cleveland/Akron would be better served by one airport in the center of the metro areas rather than two airports on opposite sides of each main city. Seattle/Tacoma certainly did something right in that respect, and while it probably wouldn't make sense to construct a new airport in the middle of those two markets (and other cities) just to consolidate, the benefits and economics of building a new central airport should be taken into account in these and other metro areas when expansion plans come up. In both of these cases, one central airport would certainly produce more routes and more frequent service on existing routes and, done right, wouldn't add a significant amount of transportation time to/from each city center.


Or the larger city just takes most of the traffic? CVG has gotten F9 and WN to move for a reason, Cincinnati is a way bigger city and has many times the business traffic. DAY served 900,000, while CVG had 6.5 million (without WN). Why would Cincinnati want to have an airport that is more inconvenient just for a handful of flights? Now that WN has moved to CVG, DAY offers nothing that CVG cannot. Cincinnati and Dayton are close, but no close enough to "share" an airport. The drive is at least an hour on a good day, do not even get me started on the nightmare that is I-75 during rush-hour. CVG has many daily flights to the west coast, hub for Delta, and the only transatlantic flight in the region, merging operations with DAY would be of little gain to CVG. While CVG is in "Kentucky", its the closest geographically feasible location to downtown Cincinnati, and its way more convenient than the airports of many other cities. Had the airport stayed at LUK or gone to Blue Ash, it would have forever been limited and would probably have never been able to handle Comair, Delta, ect. While the shared airport would benefit DAY, I think it would be a huge drawback for Cincinnati, having an airport so far from downtown. Also remember that CVG is Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, in a way, CVG is central to the area of Northern Kentucky including Covington, Hebron, ect., which would have a super long drive in a Cincinnati/Dayton Airport combination. So, I think its better for the Greater Cincinnati Area that the airport is located south of the city. DAY has a lot of leakage to CMH/IND, whereas CVG has a unique catchment area in Northern Kentucky that helps bring in more passengers.
 
phluser
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:18 am

Mainland wrote:
So who drops BWI-CVG first? G4 or DL?


It would be something if it's DL and G4 sticks.
 
usflyguy
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:52 am

airzona11 wrote:
Great addition for Cincy!

It appears with WN doing the above and below servicing, you would think, that they plan to serve more destinations. There current MDW/BWI gives a quick 1 stop to reach the whole WN route map, but we know WN is O/D vs Hub driven (not saying they don't transfer pax). This has to be their smallest station, 8 flights a day with in house staffing above and below the wing?

DAL/LAS/DEN/PHX are probably on deck.


CRP has 3 or 4 flights a day with a cadre of full-time staff that are all really senior seniority wise.
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cvgComair
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:11 am

phluser wrote:
Mainland wrote:
So who drops BWI-CVG first? G4 or DL?


It would be something if it's DL and G4 sticks.


I think there is room for all three on the BWI route, since G4 only operates 2x/week on the route, and DL has 2x/CRJ-200, 6x/week. While WN is aiming for O&D on CVG-BWI, many of these passengers will be connecting in BWI onward, so I think all three carriers will stay on the route. I think DL will even go as far to add a CRJ-700 on one of the frequencies in order to offer a first-class option over WN. Remember, DL is also connecting passengers from BWI through CVG to other midwest destinations, its a route that has remained fairly steady the last few years, and there are some others I would expect to be cut before BWI.

As far as further WN adds, as discussed on the "Rest Of Ohio" forum, I think many of the users agree that WN is not going to push Florida as heavily as it does from other cities due to F9/G4/DL operating daily frequencies to FLL/RSW/TPA/MCO and these fares have gone down significantly with all three carriers competing. I think the eventual list will look something like: ATL, BOS, BWI, DAL, HOU, MCO, MDW, PHX, STL, and TPA. This network would largely avoid DL, except ATL, but fares on that route are really crazy from CVG, double cities like CMH/IND in many cases.
 
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enilria
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:14 am

MODS: Can this thread be renamed to "WN Adds CVG, Closes CAK/DAY" ? If you don't there will just be a ton of other threads spring up tomorrow with the full schedule release. also, I don't think people have noticed CAK deep in the thread.
 
joeman
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:24 am

flyfresno wrote:
I think this move shows why "linear" metro areas like Cincinnati/Dayton and Cleveland/Akron would be better served by one airport in the center of the metro areas rather than two airports on opposite sides of each main city. Seattle/Tacoma certainly did something right in that respect, and while it probably wouldn't make sense to construct a new airport in the middle of those two markets (and other cities) just to consolidate, the benefits and economics of building a new central airport should be taken into account in these and other metro areas when expansion plans come up. In both of these cases, one central airport would certainly produce more routes and more frequent service on existing routes and, done right, wouldn't add a significant amount of transportation time to/from each city center.


DFW too. It would make total sense in today's climate. So many smaller towns dropped air service after highways came in. Well, the president elect and his former opponent were so much about infrastructure/jobs, president elect often citing airports specifically. Let's see if anything happens, if at all, outside of the same routine places and we all know where they are for a change.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:33 am

With the big caveat that metro population is a mediocre indicator of air travel demand, here's are largest metro areas (CSA's, or just MSA if there's no CSA) without Southwest. I've also included several which are served by Southwest in bold for reference and comparison.

32 ….. 2208450 Cincinnati
38 ….. 1630368 Greensboro
49 ….. 1239677 Harrisburg
50 ….. 1214960 Buffalo
51 ….. 1177439 Rochester
52 ….. 1173518 Albany
53 ….. 1165798 Albuquerque
54 ….. 1139468 Tulsa

55 ….. 1120522 Fresno
56 ….. 1103782 Knoxville
57 ….. 1077665 Dayton
58 ….. 1051211 Tucson
59 ….. 1050374 El Paso
60 ….. 1028290 Fort Myers

61 ……. 991788 Honolulu
62 ……. 952194 Sarasota
63 ……. 945148 Chattanooga
64 ……. 941165 Omaha
65 ……. 928368 Columbia
66 ……. 902443 Little Rock
67 ……. 894028 McAllen
68 ……. 847598 Bakersfield
69 ……. 858354 Madison
70 ……. 825478 Baton Rouge
71 ……. 798350 Modesto
72 ……. 768927 Des Moines
73 ……. 743711 Boise

74 ……. 740301 Syracuse
75 ……. 727689 Charleston SC
81 ……. 688279 Spokane
83 ……. 677039 Wichita
88 ……. 630992 Portland
93 ……. 697837 Reno
103 ….. 522051 Corpus Christi
109 ….. 474081 Pensacola
112 ….. 442295 Brownsville-Harlingen
135 ….. 329221 Lubbock
128 ….. 315194 Midland
146 ….. 281658 Amarillo
194 ….. 194929 Panama City


I do think the list has a couple of reasonable purposes:

1. It shows that while CVG may have been something of a glaring omission, that may be the last obvious one.
2. It shows how population is not the be-all / end-all. About-to-be dumped Dayton is #5, and there are 15+ smaller metro areas with WN service.
3. It suggests that there may not be too many more domestic cities for Southwest to add as long as the 143-seat 73G is the smallest aircraft.
4. it points out that a number of the largest markets Southwest isn't serving are places AirTran did serve. That WN chose to take a pass on places like Harrisburg, Knoxville and Sarasota (and now Dayton) accentuates that viable domestic markets aren't plentiful. Note that FNT is part of Detroit's CSA, PHF is part of Norfolk's CSA and CAK is part of Cleveland's CSA. They don't show up here but but they represent two (and perhaps three) more former AirTran markets which didn't fit for Southwest.

Inevitably somebody will look at this list and say "my city deserves WN because it is bigger than existing Southwest city X" but that's not really the point here.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:18 am

rockyracoon wrote:
Over the years, CVG officials have constantly pointed to BOS as example route that was prime for a Low Cost entrant. WN has an opening here, and should challenge DL's current CVG-BOS monopoly.

I can't believe not even G4 or F9 have attempted BOS. Lots of O&D, high fares and lots of room for traffic stimulation.

southwest1675 wrote:
Starting CVG June 4th, 2017.

5X MDW
3X BWI

That's it.

Looks about right. I think we can extrapolate that today's moves were recognition by WN that they needed to plug CVG into their network...MDW and BWI are the most effective ways of doing so. LCC service on CVG-CHI will be great as well, that hasn't been seen since Vanguard in the late 90s. Unless WN is especially interested in battling for a commanding position at CVG (and who knows?) 8-10 flights looks about right to me. I could see them tinkering with frequencies and adding 1 Florida, 1 DAL, some BOS, and 1 West Coast.

TUSDawg23 wrote:
If my memory serves me correctly, CVG used to have some of the highest fares in the country, was a very high cost airport to operate out of, and that combined with DL's presence made it a no go for any LCC. CVG is also located in an area where you have several alternatives within a few hours drive so I think WN has relied on these alternatives(DAY, SDF, IND, CMH). But now with DL's presence sizeably reduced, CVG needed to find ways to attract other carriers and one of these ways is to lower their costs of doing business. I'm surprised it took WN this long, but CVG will be a great fit for them.

Airport costs were never an issue. The problem was always the threat of DL retaliation and an airport user agreement that prevented CVG from being able to offer new-service incentives.

cvgComair wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
I think this move shows why "linear" metro areas like Cincinnati/Dayton and Cleveland/Akron would be better served by one airport in the center of the metro areas rather than two airports on opposite sides of each main city. Seattle/Tacoma certainly did something right in that respect, and while it probably wouldn't make sense to construct a new airport in the middle of those two markets (and other cities) just to consolidate, the benefits and economics of building a new central airport should be taken into account in these and other metro areas when expansion plans come up. In both of these cases, one central airport would certainly produce more routes and more frequent service on existing routes and, done right, wouldn't add a significant amount of transportation time to/from each city center.


Or the larger city just takes most of the traffic? CVG has gotten F9 and WN to move for a reason, Cincinnati is a way bigger city and has many times the business traffic. DAY served 900,000, while CVG had 6.5 million (without WN). Why would Cincinnati want to have an airport that is more inconvenient just for a handful of flights? Now that WN has moved to CVG, DAY offers nothing that CVG cannot. Cincinnati and Dayton are close, but no close enough to "share" an airport. The drive is at least an hour on a good day, do not even get me started on the nightmare that is I-75 during rush-hour. CVG has many daily flights to the west coast, hub for Delta, and the only transatlantic flight in the region, merging operations with DAY would be of little gain to CVG. While CVG is in "Kentucky", its the closest geographically feasible location to downtown Cincinnati, and its way more convenient than the airports of many other cities. Had the airport stayed at LUK or gone to Blue Ash, it would have forever been limited and would probably have never been able to handle Comair, Delta, ect. While the shared airport would benefit DAY, I think it would be a huge drawback for Cincinnati, having an airport so far from downtown. Also remember that CVG is Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, in a way, CVG is central to the area of Northern Kentucky including Covington, Hebron, ect., which would have a super long drive in a Cincinnati/Dayton Airport combination. So, I think its better for the Greater Cincinnati Area that the airport is located south of the city. DAY has a lot of leakage to CMH/IND, whereas CVG has a unique catchment area in Northern Kentucky that helps bring in more passengers.

Agreed. Although this will take a few years to flesh out, with lower fares I think CVG's central location (once an obstacle when fares were the most expensive in the country) will become a real asset in being able to pull passengers from Lexington, Louisville, and Dayton on top of Cincinnati area O&D itself.
 
rockyracoon
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:50 am

jelpee wrote:
I wonder what this will do to Allegiant and Frontier that serve CVG? Different non stop destinations for now, but that could change. Being from CVG, I'm looking forward to not being squeezed by Delta and only having Allegient and Frontier as my "competitive" choices.


Ultimately it will cap their growth. Long term, I think G4 stands to lose the most., but there is enough food at the table for the 3 to coexist.
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Capt.Fantastic
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:24 am

A few people have commented about the unlikelihood of Southwest closing only one station at a time, i.e. if DAY's closing, something's going with it. Could someone shed some light on why that is? I'd appreciate it. Thanks :)
 
INFINITI329
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:55 am

Capt.Fantastic wrote:
A few people have commented about the unlikelihood of Southwest closing only one station at a time, i.e. if DAY's closing, something's going with it. Could someone shed some light on why that is? I'd appreciate it. Thanks :)


CAK is being closed as well
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:08 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
flyguychi wrote:
CAK and DAY closing with CVG Announcement:

"We are announcing today the closure of both Akron-Canton (CAK) and Dayton (DAY), the addition of a new Southwest City, Cincinnati (CVG), and the addition of new flights in Cleveland (CLE). The last day of service in CAK and DAY will be on June 3, 2017. The following day, on June 4, 2017, CVG will begin operating with flights to MDW and BWI. Additionally on June 4, 2017, CLE will launch three new flights with daily service between CLE and ATL, and additional frequency between CLE and STL."


No surprises here. WN has been focused on better serving business travelers and the primary airports they prefer for quite some time now, although the airline certainly deserves credit for giving CAK and DAY plenty of opportunities to prove themselves. When you consider the fact that Akron/Canton and Dayton each serve over 1 million people in their namesake metropolitan areas, it's no wonder WN said no to AirTran stations like ABE, BMI, CRW, HSV and LEX.

The Cincinnati metropolitan area was by far the largest and most important domestic market lacking WN service. That dubious distinction will now go to Piedmont Triad (GSO), while the next largest unserved market Harrisburg had AirTran service at the time of acquisition but WN declined to enter MDT in 2012.


What I find perplexing about this is that AirTran did very well here at DAY for quite some time with the 717's providing multiple non-stops daily to MCO, TPA, ATL and BWI. Why was this not successful on SW? Did the DAY market reject southwest??
 
717atOGG
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:49 pm

Hmm. With WN coming to CVG, the CVG-WAS market is awfully crowded with UA at IAD, AA at DCA, and DL and G4 at BWI. I wonder if one of them will have to leave the market.
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rbavfan
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:53 pm

lowfareair wrote:
enilria wrote:
I don't see how they keep DAY if this happens.


Why not? WN started BOS and still has MHT/PVD, started FLL and still has PBI, started LGA and still has ISP, started DCA and still has IAD, and kept CLE & CAK after the FL merger. All are closer than DAY is to Cincy proper. Service levels may have changed, but station eliminations are not a guarantee.



CLE & CAK are not closer the CVG than Dayton.
 
swacle
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:27 pm



CLE & CAK are not closer the CVG than Dayton.


Actually they are. CLE-CAK is about 50 minutes and 40 miles, CVG-DAY 1 hour 20 minutes and about 80 miles.
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tsnamm
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:32 pm

717atOGG wrote:
Hmm. With WN coming to CVG, the CVG-WAS market is awfully crowded with UA at IAD, AA at DCA, and DL and G4 at BWI. I wonder if one of them will have to leave the market.



There's not that much service at all...BWI/CVG isn't even daily for DL connection, UA only has 2 express flights from IAD, and AA & DL are only 3x daily each from DCA. It doesn't look too saturated.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:28 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
What I find perplexing about this is that AirTran did very well here at DAY for quite some time with the 717's providing multiple non-stops daily to MCO, TPA, ATL and BWI. Why was this not successful on SW? Did the DAY market reject southwest??


Larger planes to fill and higher fares.
 
ScottB
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:39 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
I agree on the difficulty to measure. But I'm not sure why we would assume it would only stimulate to 52 PDEW when CMH-BNA is about twice that size.


CMH-BNA is a longer drive, so the advantages of driving (more convenient schedule, lower direct cost, no TSA) are less attractive against the key advantages of flying -- less time spent traveling and perhaps the ability to do work for part of the travel time. I acknowledge your later point about a full day of work being difficult, but it is possible when driving between the two; it's really not an option when driving between CMH & BNA.

jco613 wrote:
Anyone got live video of NK HQ right now? I'm sure there is a huge party going on with the former FL execs who want to re-build CAK...again


I doubt WN exiting CAK at this point would have much impact on NK's plans for the airport given that WN's service there is down to only ATL & MCO, and it might be a challenge for NK to duplicate the FL hub at ATL today.

cvgComair wrote:
the airport is adding gates A1/2/3/5 for Southwest, opening this summer.


This seems more like just reactivating gates which IIRC existed back in the days of the DL hub.

flyguy89 wrote:
I can't believe not even G4 or F9 have attempted BOS. Lots of O&D, high fares and lots of room for traffic stimulation.


One challenge with CVG-BOS is that a big chunk of the traffic is tied to P&G/Gillette corporate travel, and it's unlikely either of G4 or F9 could take an appreciable chunk of that. It's tough to say if WN could tap into the P&G traffic, either, since I'm sure P&G would like the CVG-CDG flight to continue and that is no doubt part of the corporate travel deal with DL.

flyguy89 wrote:
Airport costs were never an issue. The problem was always the threat of DL retaliation and an airport user agreement that prevented CVG from being able to offer new-service incentives.


I think another challenge was gates; DL historically had a stranglehold on Terminal 3 and there wasn't much space available in Terminals 1 & 2, either.

knope2001 wrote:
2. It shows how population is not the be-all / end-all. About-to-be dumped Dayton is #5, and there are 15+ smaller metro areas with WN service.


I think one factor demonstrated by your list is that relatively isolated markets tend to punch above their weight in supporting WN service (and air service in general) while airports within a reasonable drive of a large WN market (or a large hub in general) will struggle. MFE & BRO will likely never see service from WN while HRL remains open and GSO is challenged by its proximity to both RDU & CLT.

ILNFlyer wrote:
What I find perplexing about this is that AirTran did very well here at DAY for quite some time with the 717's providing multiple non-stops daily to MCO, TPA, ATL and BWI. Why was this not successful on SW? Did the DAY market reject southwest??


It's tough to say specifically how well FL did at DAY and WN's costs are higher than FL's, which might mean that a marginally profitable station in the FL network loses money for WN. Or it might even be that DAY was marginally profitable for WN, but it lagged the rest of the network in terms of operating margins. It would make sense to redeploy assets like airplanes to other markets if they can make more money there. CVG has the potential to be more lucrative than DAY for WN, but who knows if that will be the case.

717atOGG wrote:
Hmm. With WN coming to CVG, the CVG-WAS market is awfully crowded with UA at IAD, AA at DCA, and DL and G4 at BWI. I wonder if one of them will have to leave the market.


CVG-WAS is naturally a pretty big market and I can see lower-fare daily service stimulating traffic to BWI. Plus WN can offer connections to dozens of markets over BWI. The weakest link might end up being UA to IAD given it is the smallest airport pair of the three.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:05 pm

cvgComair wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
I think this move shows why "linear" metro areas like Cincinnati/Dayton and Cleveland/Akron would be better served by one airport in the center of the metro areas rather than two airports on opposite sides of each main city. Seattle/Tacoma certainly did something right in that respect, and while it probably wouldn't make sense to construct a new airport in the middle of those two markets (and other cities) just to consolidate, the benefits and economics of building a new central airport should be taken into account in these and other metro areas when expansion plans come up. In both of these cases, one central airport would certainly produce more routes and more frequent service on existing routes and, done right, wouldn't add a significant amount of transportation time to/from each city center.


Or the larger city just takes most of the traffic? CVG has gotten F9 and WN to move for a reason, Cincinnati is a way bigger city and has many times the business traffic. DAY served 900,000, while CVG had 6.5 million (without WN). Why would Cincinnati want to have an airport that is more inconvenient just for a handful of flights? Now that WN has moved to CVG, DAY offers nothing that CVG cannot. Cincinnati and Dayton are close, but no close enough to "share" an airport. The drive is at least an hour on a good day, do not even get me started on the nightmare that is I-75 during rush-hour. CVG has many daily flights to the west coast, hub for Delta, and the only transatlantic flight in the region, merging operations with DAY would be of little gain to CVG. While CVG is in "Kentucky", its the closest geographically feasible location to downtown Cincinnati, and its way more convenient than the airports of many other cities. Had the airport stayed at LUK or gone to Blue Ash, it would have forever been limited and would probably have never been able to handle Comair, Delta, ect. While the shared airport would benefit DAY, I think it would be a huge drawback for Cincinnati, having an airport so far from downtown. Also remember that CVG is Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, in a way, CVG is central to the area of Northern Kentucky including Covington, Hebron, ect., which would have a super long drive in a Cincinnati/Dayton Airport combination. So, I think its better for the Greater Cincinnati Area that the airport is located south of the city. DAY has a lot of leakage to CMH/IND, whereas CVG has a unique catchment area in Northern Kentucky that helps bring in more passengers.


Cincinnati/Dayton are obviously some of the more "spaced out" cities in the list of areas that could consider one regional airport over two, and while this is a obviously CVG thread, I was more pointing to the moves (including CAK) as evidence that two airports might be counterproductive to some metro areas, not proposing that this metro area pack up and move to a new airport right away. I guess the question would be, would you rather have things like they are, or consolidate into one airport and, based on the increased traffic to that central airport (figure around 7.5 million or more passengers per year), add 2-3 more frequencies per day to large hubs (ATL, ORD, DFW, IAH, DEN, NYC's airports, etc etc etc) AND add a few more non-stop destinations (such as PDX, SAN, YUL, and perhaps a few longer routes like HNL or maybe even another European destination such as a London airport) AND add drive time to both cities. Of course, Cincinnati, being the larger city, would have the airport be closer to it, and a new airport would command increasing roadway capacity, but would you take the above scenario if the airport was 10 miles further north from downtown Cincinnati than it is west of downtown now? Yes, "Northern Kentucky" would lose out on such a deal, but other than the Cincinnati suburbs, there really aren't enough people out there to warrant keeping an airport just for them.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:09 pm

Good, long-overdue news for CVG. I don't think WN will be at the initial service levels for very long. A lot of growth potential is there.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:43 pm

A little more information from yesterday's announcement:

"Dallas-based Southwest has done what no other competitor has accomplished in a market once owned by Delta Air Lines. Southwest has won over the business community – and vice versa. The airline persuaded enough companies to make seat guarantees, and also received a commitment from businesses to cover some advertising costs to promote the new service across the region.

Details about which companies and the level of commitment made were not disclosed, but the high-powered Cincinnati Business Committee, Cincinnati Regional Business Committee, Cincinnati USA Regional Chamber and REDI were heavily involved in connecting Southwest to large and midsized companies.

"We feel there are folks here who have a vested interest in helping Southwest be successful," said David Harvey, Southwest's managing director of business development. "We were able to build relationships with some key corporate partners to get formal travel agreements in place well before we start the service. That's going to put big wind in our sails."

Southwest took its first look at CVG a decade ago, Harvey said. That's about the time Delta began a decadelong downsizing of some 600 flights at CVG, mostly due to the Atlanta-based carrier's decision to focus on other markets after its merger with Northwest Airlines. But Delta still had a strong enough grip on Greater Cincinnati to make CVG one of the nation's most expensive airports. The high fares still forced small and mid-sized company managers and vacationers to look mostly to Dayton for cheaper flights."


http://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/b ... /96151478/

I'm honestly very impressed. I've never seen Northern Kentucky and Cincinnati leaders united like this.


ILNFlyer wrote:
What I find perplexing about this is that AirTran did very well here at DAY for quite some time with the 717's providing multiple non-stops daily to MCO, TPA, ATL and BWI. Why was this not successful on SW? Did the DAY market reject southwest??

It's not all that perplexing really. DAY's traffic was always bloated by leakage from Cincinnati. Now that CVG offers more flights and cheaper fares than DAY, no one is driving to DAY for cheaper flights.

ScottB wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
I can't believe not even G4 or F9 have attempted BOS. Lots of O&D, high fares and lots of room for traffic stimulation.


One challenge with CVG-BOS is that a big chunk of the traffic is tied to P&G/Gillette corporate travel, and it's unlikely either of G4 or F9 could take an appreciable chunk of that. It's tough to say if WN could tap into the P&G traffic, either, since I'm sure P&G would like the CVG-CDG flight to continue and that is no doubt part of the corporate travel deal with DL.

Sure, however Boston is still a major major market that would have plenty of traffic outside P&G.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 5:49 pm

knope2001 wrote:
With the big caveat that metro population is a mediocre indicator of air travel demand, here's are largest metro areas (CSA's, or just MSA if there's no CSA) without Southwest. I've also included several which are served by Southwest in bold for reference and comparison.

32 ….. 2208450 Cincinnati
38 ….. 1630368 Greensboro
49 ….. 1239677 Harrisburg
50 ….. 1214960 Buffalo
51 ….. 1177439 Rochester
52 ….. 1173518 Albany
53 ….. 1165798 Albuquerque
54 ….. 1139468 Tulsa

55 ….. 1120522 Fresno
56 ….. 1103782 Knoxville
57 ….. 1077665 Dayton
58 ….. 1051211 Tucson
59 ….. 1050374 El Paso
60 ….. 1028290 Fort Myers

61 ……. 991788 Honolulu
62 ……. 952194 Sarasota
63 ……. 945148 Chattanooga
64 ……. 941165 Omaha
65 ……. 928368 Columbia
66 ……. 902443 Little Rock
67 ……. 894028 McAllen
68 ……. 847598 Bakersfield
69 ……. 858354 Madison
70 ……. 825478 Baton Rouge
71 ……. 798350 Modesto
72 ……. 768927 Des Moines
73 ……. 743711 Boise

74 ……. 740301 Syracuse
75 ……. 727689 Charleston SC
81 ……. 688279 Spokane
83 ……. 677039 Wichita
88 ……. 630992 Portland
93 ……. 697837 Reno
103 ….. 522051 Corpus Christi
109 ….. 474081 Pensacola
112 ….. 442295 Brownsville-Harlingen
135 ….. 329221 Lubbock
128 ….. 315194 Midland
146 ….. 281658 Amarillo
194 ….. 194929 Panama City


I do think the list has a couple of reasonable purposes:

1. It shows that while CVG may have been something of a glaring omission, that may be the last obvious one.
2. It shows how population is not the be-all / end-all. About-to-be dumped Dayton is #5, and there are 15+ smaller metro areas with WN service.
3. It suggests that there may not be too many more domestic cities for Southwest to add as long as the 143-seat 73G is the smallest aircraft.
4. it points out that a number of the largest markets Southwest isn't serving are places AirTran did serve. That WN chose to take a pass on places like Harrisburg, Knoxville and Sarasota (and now Dayton) accentuates that viable domestic markets aren't plentiful. Note that FNT is part of Detroit's CSA, PHF is part of Norfolk's CSA and CAK is part of Cleveland's CSA. They don't show up here but but they represent two (and perhaps three) more former AirTran markets which didn't fit for Southwest.

Inevitably somebody will look at this list and say "my city deserves WN because it is bigger than existing Southwest city X" but that's not really the point here.


I would say that airport passenger count might be a better indication of the likelihood of SWA serving it than CSA/MSA, although even that has outliers (you also have to disregard airports like ORD in cities that SWA already serves as well as far-away airports like GUM). I, personally, think that both CSA and MSA numbers are somewhat flawed when it comes to predicting certain things, including airline service. In addition to income and economic activity (as you mentioned), there is very little consistency in their sizes relative to the seizes of the cities they represent (Sacramento's CSA is 21,000 square miles and includes a county in far-away NEVADA that is 3+ hours by car and much closer to Reno, while Cincinnati's CSA is only 4,000 square miles and has it's furthest point only a little over an hour away, even though both are supposedly "similar" CSAs, which they really aren't), and don't take into account drive-ability or proximity to other major metro areas.

If you rank airports by traffic, I think you get even more information about which metro areas SWA might choose. I included non-SWA airports in metro areas that SWA does serve for general interest:

3. ORD (SWA serves MDW)
4. DFW (SWA serves DAL)
5. JFK (SWA serves LGA, EWR)
11. MIA (SWA serves FLL, but this might be a potential add)
12. IAH (SWA serves HOU)
28. HNL (not in lower 48, but some day?)
51. OGG (not in lower 48, but some day?)
53. CVG (happening soon)
56. ANC (not in lower 48, but some day?)
72. GUM (not happening)
73. KOA (not in lower 48, but some day?)
78. LIH (not in lower 48, but some day?)
84. DAY (not anymore)
85. SFB (SWA serves MCO)
88. SYR
89. PSP
90. GSP (SWA serves, shown to illustrate relative position in list of small SWA city)
91. SAV
92. MYR
93. GSO
94. TYS
95. PWM (SWA serves, shown to illustrate relative position in list of small SWA city)
96. MSN
97. CAK (not anymore)
98. PNS (SWA serves, shown to illustrate relative position in list of small SWA city)
99. ICT (SWA serves, shown to illustrate relative position in list of small SWA city)
100. HPN (SWA serves LGA, EWR)
101. FAT
(Insert small Texas SWA cities way down here)

This list is also not an end-all, be-all, but take out airports that are NOT in the Lower 48 and airports in metro areas that SWA already serves (you *might* put PSP on that list relative to ONT), and you get another piece of the puzzle of markets SWA might choose. It certainly makes things look more optimistic for SYR, PSP, and a few others that do not get talked about a lot in the SWA discussion and less optimistic for supposed front-runners like FAT.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:09 pm

ScottB wrote:
It's tough to say specifically how well FL did at DAY and WN's costs are higher than FL's, which might mean that a marginally profitable station in the FL network loses money for WN. Or it might even be that DAY was marginally profitable for WN, but it lagged the rest of the network in terms of operating margins. It would make sense to redeploy assets like airplanes to other markets if they can make more money there. CVG has the potential to be more lucrative than DAY for WN, but who knows if that will be the case.


I generally agree with you except that I doubt WN would close a station because it is only marginally profitable. WN is getting tapped out of large US markets and may need to expand into smaller and more marginally profitable markets for O&D and for feed to make connecting flights more viable. Why suffer the expense and PR hit of closing and relocating employees if there is a chance they are coming back? I suspect they made a strategic corporate decision to go with consolidated operations at one airport in the area. They might not want to compete with splitting market with DAY to ensure their operations at CVG are successful.

Is this a warning shot to other airports near major city airports in the WN network? Probably not IMO. WN has regional airports in SF, LA, NYC, and Boston which are all substantially larger than CVG/DAY and CLE/CAK. No one would suggest that OAK or SJC should be eliminated for SFO and WN couldn't wait to get a piece of LGB so they are not thinking of consolidating everything at LAX. EWR and LGA will coexist and ISP is a distinctly different market that likes their easy access to Fla that somebody is going to serve. And Boston metro is another nearly 10 million person market that spans over 100 miles. The major airports in these metro areas don't need the regional feed to be successful and if the major and regional airports can profitably fill planes then they both enhance the brand.

While Southern Fla has PBI and FLL, PBI is a niche market in the shadow of FLL, which itself lies in the shadow of MIA. I think MIA now stands out as the lone major city airport not served by WN, but I doubt it will ever bump FLL off the map.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:28 pm

flyfresno wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
With the big caveat that metro population is a mediocre indicator of air travel demand, here's are largest metro areas (CSA's, or just MSA if there's no CSA) without Southwest. I've also included several which are served by Southwest in bold for reference and comparison.


Thanks for pulling / posting this. After posting the list of metros I had started doing the same wih airports but ran out of time to get very far. Population is definitely a mediocre indicator of air demand, but airport traffic has its own flaws. Many of the non-WN airports don't have much low-fare stimulation and/or bleed significantly to neighboring airports. So it's also not the best when it comes to predicting where WN might go next.

For what it's worth when you pull the same-metros out (MIA, JFK, etc.) and remove AK and HI you end up with largely the same list -- places like Knoxville, Syracuse, Madison, Greensboro, etc. I think a lot of the same points still hold true. Not a whole lot of new cities to add unless they find a way to serve smaller markets. Of course there's growth available internationally and by connecting more of the existing dots, but there probably aren't many new domestic points coming after Cincinnati as things currently appear.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:40 pm

WN short planes this next year?? Maybe that's why so few CVG flights to start??
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
flyfresno
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:54 pm

I do think that it's interesting how DAY's traffic has decreased substantially over the last few years, even with SWA there. In 2008, the airport had close to 3 million total passengers, last year that number was down close to 2 million. SWA leaving will make yet another large dent in that number, probably pushing it below 1.9 even if other airlines add service. Economic problems of the late 2000's aside, many airports are back close to their pre-recession levels. Certainly troubling for the airport board...
 
cvgComair
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:36 pm

flyfresno wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
I think this move shows why "linear" metro areas like Cincinnati/Dayton and Cleveland/Akron would be better served by one airport in the center of the metro areas rather than two airports on opposite sides of each main city. Seattle/Tacoma certainly did something right in that respect, and while it probably wouldn't make sense to construct a new airport in the middle of those two markets (and other cities) just to consolidate, the benefits and economics of building a new central airport should be taken into account in these and other metro areas when expansion plans come up. In both of these cases, one central airport would certainly produce more routes and more frequent service on existing routes and, done right, wouldn't add a significant amount of transportation time to/from each city center.


Or the larger city just takes most of the traffic? CVG has gotten F9 and WN to move for a reason, Cincinnati is a way bigger city and has many times the business traffic. DAY served 900,000, while CVG had 6.5 million (without WN). Why would Cincinnati want to have an airport that is more inconvenient just for a handful of flights? Now that WN has moved to CVG, DAY offers nothing that CVG cannot. Cincinnati and Dayton are close, but no close enough to "share" an airport. The drive is at least an hour on a good day, do not even get me started on the nightmare that is I-75 during rush-hour. CVG has many daily flights to the west coast, hub for Delta, and the only transatlantic flight in the region, merging operations with DAY would be of little gain to CVG. While CVG is in "Kentucky", its the closest geographically feasible location to downtown Cincinnati, and its way more convenient than the airports of many other cities. Had the airport stayed at LUK or gone to Blue Ash, it would have forever been limited and would probably have never been able to handle Comair, Delta, ect. While the shared airport would benefit DAY, I think it would be a huge drawback for Cincinnati, having an airport so far from downtown. Also remember that CVG is Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, in a way, CVG is central to the area of Northern Kentucky including Covington, Hebron, ect., which would have a super long drive in a Cincinnati/Dayton Airport combination. So, I think its better for the Greater Cincinnati Area that the airport is located south of the city. DAY has a lot of leakage to CMH/IND, whereas CVG has a unique catchment area in Northern Kentucky that helps bring in more passengers.


Cincinnati/Dayton are obviously some of the more "spaced out" cities in the list of areas that could consider one regional airport over two, and while this is a obviously CVG thread, I was more pointing to the moves (including CAK) as evidence that two airports might be counterproductive to some metro areas, not proposing that this metro area pack up and move to a new airport right away. I guess the question would be, would you rather have things like they are, or consolidate into one airport and, based on the increased traffic to that central airport (figure around 7.5 million or more passengers per year), add 2-3 more frequencies per day to large hubs (ATL, ORD, DFW, IAH, DEN, NYC's airports, etc etc etc) AND add a few more non-stop destinations (such as PDX, SAN, YUL, and perhaps a few longer routes like HNL or maybe even another European destination such as a London airport) AND add drive time to both cities. Of course, Cincinnati, being the larger city, would have the airport be closer to it, and a new airport would command increasing roadway capacity, but would you take the above scenario if the airport was 10 miles further north from downtown Cincinnati than it is west of downtown now? Yes, "Northern Kentucky" would lose out on such a deal, but other than the Cincinnati suburbs, there really aren't enough people out there to warrant keeping an airport just for them.


I guess my point is that I think the position of CVG is going to allow for this kind of expansion better than a DAY/CVG combo. CVG is quickly turning into a huge LCC city in the region and I think its going to get a lot of traffic from DAY/SDF/LEX, as well as Southeast Ohio. It does not make a huge difference geographically to relocate CVG north and frankly money would be better spent building light rail connections to bring DAY pax to CVG. IND, CLE and CMH are also in similar positions and I think all three will see 9-10 million passengers within the next decade. Rather than looking just at DAY/CVG, overall, the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana region could consolidate flights to CVG/CLE/CMH/IND (SDF to an extent), while DAY/LEX/CAK/YNG/TOL would all see a decrease in traffic down to essential key markets. In this scenario, long term, all four cities could see multiple Trans-Atlantic flights and possibly a Trans-Pacific or two.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:55 pm

flyfresno wrote:
I do think that it's interesting how DAY's traffic has decreased substantially over the last few years, even with SWA there. In 2008, the airport had close to 3 million total passengers, last year that number was down close to 2 million. SWA leaving will make yet another large dent in that number, probably pushing it below 1.9 even if other airlines add service. Economic problems of the late 2000's aside, many airports are back close to their pre-recession levels. Certainly troubling for the airport board...


As much as anything I suspect the reductions at Dayton come from increased LCC activity at Cincinnati and to a (significantly) lesser extent at CMH and IND. Kind of like has been discussed on the thread about MHT, they enjoyed artificially inflated numbers back when BOS saw little LCC penetration and Southwest's Manchester / Providence flying did a lot. Dayton is how AirTran, and subsequently Southwest, accessed the Cincinnati market. But with more Cincy people finding good deals closer to home, there's no need to make the drive to Dayton.

In a lot of ways Dayton without the supplemental traffic from greater Cincinnati is very much like Harrisburg, Syracuse, Greensboro, etc. A substantial market which is marginal for Southwest's existing product, one which bleeds traffic to other better-served airports and doesn't have much service beyond the network carriers. I have no doubt that Southwest is investigating ways to serve markets like these, but it's possible that the ultimate outcome of such an investigation could be that they won't take action in this direction.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:02 pm

knope2001 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
I do think that it's interesting how DAY's traffic has decreased substantially over the last few years, even with SWA there. In 2008, the airport had close to 3 million total passengers, last year that number was down close to 2 million. SWA leaving will make yet another large dent in that number, probably pushing it below 1.9 even if other airlines add service. Economic problems of the late 2000's aside, many airports are back close to their pre-recession levels. Certainly troubling for the airport board...


As much as anything I suspect the reductions at Dayton come from increased LCC activity at Cincinnati and to a (significantly) lesser extent at CMH and IND. Kind of like has been discussed on the thread about MHT, they enjoyed artificially inflated numbers back when BOS saw little LCC penetration and Southwest's Manchester / Providence flying did a lot. Dayton is how AirTran, and subsequently Southwest, accessed the Cincinnati market. But with more Cincy people finding good deals closer to home, there's no need to make the drive to Dayton.

In a lot of ways Dayton without the supplemental traffic from greater Cincinnati is very much like Harrisburg, Syracuse, Greensboro, etc. A substantial market which is marginal for Southwest's existing product, one which bleeds traffic to other better-served airports and doesn't have much service beyond the network carriers. I have no doubt that Southwest is investigating ways to serve markets like these, but it's possible that the ultimate outcome of such an investigation could be that they won't take action in this direction.


Certainly an apt description. And the trend is only going to get worse as even the network carriers begin to prioritize larger high-yield markets.
 
DC9RHI
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:15 pm

airzona11 wrote:
This has to be their smallest station.


Have you checked Richmond?
 
DC9RHI
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:57 pm

By all accounts, Dayton peaked around 1912 and has been declining ever since. Their economy has not bounced back, while Cincinnati's is getting stronger every day. CVG #28 largest metro area in US vs DAY #72 - where would SWA rather be?

Yes, if Ohio got it's act together and built the SW Ohio regional airport somewhere around Monroe off of I-75 and moved all of DAY and CVG service there, it would make a lot of sense and draw from a very large population. The majority of Cincinnati is North, and the majority of Dayton is South, this would be right in the middle. Wilmington airport is too far east.

Still, a lot of SWA service clustered close by - Midwesterners have no issues hopping in the car and driving 75 miles to save some $$.
and that's no mistake, according to Google Maps, it's the same distance from DAY to CMH as DAY to CVG.

DAY>CMH 77.2 miles
DAY>CVG 77.2 miles
DAY>IND 123 miles
CVG>SDF 100 miles
CVG>IND 125 miles
CVG>CMH 126 miles
 
727LOVER
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:16 pm

Here's an article on them leaving CAK

http://fox8.com/2017/01/04/southwest-ai ... t-in-june/


It's pretty cold to leave 2 airports in a state and start another in the same state, the same day
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
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Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:39 pm

727LOVER wrote:

Here's an article on them leaving CAK

http://fox8.com/2017/01/04/southwest-ai ... t-in-june/


It's pretty cold to leave 2 airports in a state and start another in the same state, the same day


CVG is in Kentucky. The majority of the market is in Ohio but... :D
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8629
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:48 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
727LOVER wrote:

Here's an article on them leaving CAK

http://fox8.com/2017/01/04/southwest-ai ... t-in-june/


It's pretty cold to leave 2 airports in a state and start another in the same state, the same day


CVG is in Kentucky. The majority of the market is in Ohio but... :D


True...I forgot about that...BUT you know what I mean !!!
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:26 am

Just reading this article (http://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/b ... /96183514/), I remembered a report a while ago that a small % of SDF/CMH/IND WN traffic was actually Cincinnati passengers. It should be interesting to see if any adjustments are made at any of these cities. The whole area leaks in multiple directions, but I think CVG is going to gain the most leakage since there is little any surrounding airport can offer over CVG, especially if WN adds a few cities in the coming years. CVG has by far the most non-stop destinations in the region, only direct flight to Europe, most ULCC departures with the F9/G4 focus cites, and only hub by a big three carrier.

Also, I thought it was interesting that nonstops to London were also listed in this article. I know that Paris, London, and Frankfurt are the largest European routes from CVG, I am still not sure that I see BA operating a flight to CVG, especially without a strong AA loyalty in Cincinnati to back it up. GE and P&G do send a lot of employs to Europe, and they still support a daily 767 flight to Paris, I just doubt its enough for another flight. The only way I see London happen is with DL on a 757, but I am not sure the current subsidiary program would be adequate to get that route started again. Frankfurt could be done with Condor, like PIT, and the current subsidiary program would be close to PIT's offerings.

We will have to see, but I do disagree with the article that a loss of the remaining DL hubs would be very negative for the region, especially since Cincinnati is very SkyTeam loyal with the long history of Comair and Delta. I think DL has bottomed out on cuts at CVG, as it has been adding capacity since mid-2015 (The changes are summarized on CVG's Wikipedia page if anyone is interested). We have seen a lot of larger aircraft and some upgrades in frequency. The current 85 flights a day seems to be profitable for Delta, and long term I think F9 and/or G4 are going to be the airlines that are the most affected by WN's service.
 
rockyracoon
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2003 3:58 am

Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:05 am

cvgComair wrote:
I think DL has bottomed out on cuts at CVG


Before this news broke I would have completely agreed, but now I'm not so sure. Once WN scales up, some DL routes to some WN strongholds may fall to the wayside. 5 years from now, I wouldn't be surprised if any of these current DL routes are gone: MCI, STL, MEM, BNA, TPA, RSW, DEN , MKE, and dare I say ORD.

cvgComair wrote:
We have seen a lot of larger aircraft and some upgrades in frequency.


:bigthumbsup: This has been nice. And the 717s are finally coming :smile: .


flyguy89 wrote:
LCC service on CVG-CHI will be great as well


Getting pretty crowded isn't it? 4 airlines, 2 with mainline... Throw in Ultimate Air Shuttle at LUK too.

flyguy89 wrote:
I think CVG's central location (once an obstacle when fares were the most expensive in the country) will become a real asset in being able to pull passengers from Lexington, Louisville, and Dayton on top of Cincinnati area O&D itself.


:checkmark: Agreed. This scenario will play out. The future hasn't been brighter in a long long time.
Airports I've flown from: CVG PIT MWO PHL PHX ORD DCA IAD MIA TPA MCO FLL ATL DTW DFW SJC LAX DEN SLC LAS HNL LIH OGG YVR GYE MUC ICN NRT PVG SHA SZX MNL PPS CRK BKK DMK KBV EOH MDE CLO CTG SMR BOG ACD MEX CUN MID AUA SAL RTB
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 5013
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: Southwest to announce CVG

Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:20 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
The Cincinnati metropolitan area was by far the largest and most important domestic market lacking WN service. That dubious distinction will now go to Piedmont Triad (GSO), while the next largest unserved market Harrisburg had AirTran service at the time of acquisition but WN declined to enter MDT in 2012.

I'm not sure how you are measuring market size. Depending upon the measures Fresno could be #1 or #2.

  • Based on 2015 MSA size the Fresno MSA is 974,861; Greensboro-High Point MSA is 752,157 and the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA is 565,006.
  • Using CSAs, Greensboro–Winston-Salem–High Point CSA is 1,642,506; Harrisburg-York-Lebanon CSA is 1,247,235; Fresno-Madera CSA is 1,129,859. (But with the end of VIS service the Visalia-Porterville-Hanford CSA roughly 40 miles south of FAT with 610,828 people now has FAT as its primary local market airport)
  • If you are basing it on number of current passengers, GSO is about 1.7 million; FAT handles about 1.4 million; and MDT handles about 1.2 million.
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