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msycajun
Posts: 1136
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Re: What's next for SFO?

Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:01 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
SFO will be very interesting to watch as the AS/VX merger progresses.

UA seems to have pretty much exhausted its expansion opportunities at SFO. Seeing as how routes like AKL, MSY and PIT have been going seasonal, I now have serious doubts when it comes to markets like BDL, CMH and NGO.


For what it's worth, MSY seems to be year-round on UA again. They went seasonal with WN added MSY-OAK, but went back to year-round when they cut MSY-LAX. It's no secret that they want to put as much of that traffic through IAH as possible. Still, I think VX is looking at it - with almost 500 PDEW between MSY and the Bay Area and only two non-stops there should be room for a third flight.
 
hoo8myryce
Posts: 19
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Re: What's next for SFO?

Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:57 am

Could SFO do some balancing in terms of filling up the bay but demolishing some land for the bay. I was thinking something like demolish taxiway "L" and make 1R into a taxiway then extend 1L and either or both of the 28s. Of course not sure how viable this could be to the overall operation at SFO
 
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atypical
Posts: 797
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Re: What's next for SFO?

Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:27 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
SFO will be very interesting to watch as the AS/VX merger progresses. Will we see a return of routes like SFO-PHL/YYZ? Will they try popular but competitive destinations like ATL, BUR, KOA, LIH and PHX? Will they try niche routes, perhaps something like a Q400 SFO-CLD service?

UA seems to have pretty much exhausted its expansion opportunities at SFO. Seeing as how routes like AKL, MSY and PIT have been going seasonal, I now have serious doubts when it comes to markets like BDL, CMH and NGO.


AS/VX will be very interesting. AS currently is in international and the VX gates do not have the enough gate openings to absorb the entire AS schedule as it is now. If they combine on the VX gates there will be little, if any, available gate space to expand operations. If they split between VX gates and international it will be downright ugly to provide any connections between the two gate areas. The choice is to operate at distant ends of the airport with 2 check-ins or to combine on the VX ops and cut some service to make that possible and be left with several years of no real expansion opportunities. Yuck and yuck.
 
theSFOspotter
Posts: 178
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:51 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:40 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
SFO will be very interesting to watch as the AS/VX merger progresses. Will we see a return of routes like SFO-PHL/YYZ? Will they try popular but competitive destinations like ATL, BUR, KOA, LIH and PHX? Will they try niche routes, perhaps something like a Q400 SFO-CLD service?

UA seems to have pretty much exhausted its expansion opportunities at SFO. Seeing as how routes like AKL, MSY and PIT have been going seasonal, I now have serious doubts when it comes to markets like BDL, CMH and NGO.


ATL and PHX seem very likely. BUR will be a hard one as WN is 4x daily and UAX is 6x daily. WN barely pushes 60% LF. NGO would seem likely if they ordered more 787-8s. But with a frame off SFO-AKL it seems likely. Also we find out if IAG is launching BCN-SFO
Q-400 A319 A320 B737-300/400/700/800/900ER B757-200/300 B787-8
 
DaufuskieGuy
Posts: 411
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:35 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:23 pm

BDL used to be year round why they can't bring it back (timed with Asian/Aus/NZ flights) is really confounding...
 
atcpeter
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:47 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:18 pm

Those of you who hate SFO's delays should probably avoid it on all weekends in March/April. The airport will be repaving 28L in stages... about 1,500 feet of it each weekend, during which time we'll be limited to 30 arrivals/hour (max, probably more like 28) on 28R. And yes, there are weekends planned in which 1R or 1L will also be closed.

The greater prospect for reducing delays is in expansion of CSP/SOIA using GLS (augmented RNAV/RNP) approaches. Here's a report on flight tests they did at SFO last year: http://laas.tc.faa.gov/documents/Docs/KSFO_RNP_to_GLS_Report_13_Dec_16.pdf

Skip ahead to about Page 28 for operational details.

As for overall on-time performance at SFO versus other Core-30 airports in those rankings, remember a few things:
    2016 saw far more Southeast Plan days (max arrival rate 28 vs 54 when VFR) than 2015.
    UA+SKW is about 49 percent of our operation.
    UA has a larger operation year-over-year with the same number of gates. Some of those gates are in Intl G and shared with other carriers, which have also added/increased service.
    A handful of carriers are responsible for delays waiting for gates after arrival, regardless of weather. That's a result of scheduling by those carriers.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:50 am

commavia wrote:
I still hold out hope that at some point AA may take the plunge and reenter SFO-BOS with 2-3x daily flights - it's a crowded and competitive market, but also a huge one. As I've said before, I've got to think it's probably one of the largest - if not the single largest - domestic U.S. O&D markets without an AA nonstop.


I really hope AA will look at SFO for some small amount of P2P. SJC is gone and dead and if they want to make and grow in the PNW maybe a few spokes in and out of SFO the That has all the spokes I believe could work has a slow grow Focus city. I like the way WN has Hubs and lots of focus cities. Traffic flow wise PHX is to far south along with LAX so some choice cities help build more of a presence in the PNW long with Norcal. The Terminal AA is in is gorgeous. I know there moving to terminal 1 I believe when its finished along with the us Side of the operation. And Yes BOS needs some love also I know its competitive but AA plus US's History at both airports should enable them a decent chance if they pick the right routes and planes.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:51 am

atypical wrote:
SurfandSnow wrote:
SFO will be very interesting to watch as the AS/VX merger progresses. Will we see a return of routes like SFO-PHL/YYZ? Will they try popular but competitive destinations like ATL, BUR, KOA, LIH and PHX? Will they try niche routes, perhaps something like a Q400 SFO-CLD service?

UA seems to have pretty much exhausted its expansion opportunities at SFO. Seeing as how routes like AKL, MSY and PIT have been going seasonal, I now have serious doubts when it comes to markets like BDL, CMH and NGO.


AS/VX will be very interesting. AS currently is in international and the VX gates do not have the enough gate openings to absorb the entire AS schedule as it is now. If they combine on the VX gates there will be little, if any, available gate space to expand operations. If they split between VX gates and international it will be downright ugly to provide any connections between the two gate areas. The choice is to operate at distant ends of the airport with 2 check-ins or to combine on the VX ops and cut some service to make that possible and be left with several years of no real expansion opportunities. Yuck and yuck.


How long till AA can move to the new terminal? Is it known?
 
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atypical
Posts: 797
Joined: Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:28 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:46 am

grbauc wrote:
atypical wrote:
SurfandSnow wrote:
SFO will be very interesting to watch as the AS/VX merger progresses. Will we see a return of routes like SFO-PHL/YYZ? Will they try popular but competitive destinations like ATL, BUR, KOA, LIH and PHX? Will they try niche routes, perhaps something like a Q400 SFO-CLD service?

UA seems to have pretty much exhausted its expansion opportunities at SFO. Seeing as how routes like AKL, MSY and PIT have been going seasonal, I now have serious doubts when it comes to markets like BDL, CMH and NGO.


AS/VX will be very interesting. AS currently is in international and the VX gates do not have the enough gate openings to absorb the entire AS schedule as it is now. If they combine on the VX gates there will be little, if any, available gate space to expand operations. If they split between VX gates and international it will be downright ugly to provide any connections between the two gate areas. The choice is to operate at distant ends of the airport with 2 check-ins or to combine on the VX ops and cut some service to make that possible and be left with several years of no real expansion opportunities. Yuck and yuck.


How long till AA can move to the new terminal? Is it known?


2020-2021 time frame to get back to the gate count of 2014 and another 2 years until the remaining gates open. A lot depends what gates are already leased and where openings are at. AA is already in boarding C and D I can't imagine they will add B to the mix so AS or DL will need to move in order they can pick up gates. WN remains in B however they have added flights however they are operating in a set of gates set aside from the demolition so they are closing in on a wall too. In boarding C they may have some gate openings depending if there isn't a shared gate with Delta or if they have gate availability on their own. One problem with SFO is I have never seen any information from the airport on gate assignments so there is some deduction to make. AS is easy because AA and VX currently share boarding D and VX has very high gate utilization already. There will be a quiz on this information Monday.
 
hayzel777
Posts: 668
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:18 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:56 am

simpv wrote:
Perhaps this has been posted on earlier forums, but this is a presentation from April 2016 of the 5 Year Capital Plan. In addition to gate capacity improvements, I didn't realize they were planning to reconfigure the international terminal arrival hall.
http://media.flysfo.com/media/sfo/Desig ... -07-16.pdf

The current immigration hall split into two has its problems. In the morning, the G side immigration is so packed sometimes they don't let you deplane yet the A side has absolutely no one. They can easily fix this by opening up the middle, which holds only a cashier window for quarantine fines and a couple offices. Also, this would allow the late night flights to be parked on the G side, which would help relieve the A sides midnight rush since the operating hours of the immigration on the G side is from 5:30-10:30 while the A side goes until 1:00am.
 
blacksoviet
Posts: 1784
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Re: What's next for SFO?

Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:11 am

SFO-CLD should be profitable.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:05 pm

atypical wrote:
grbauc wrote:
atypical wrote:

AS/VX will be very interesting. AS currently is in international and the VX gates do not have the enough gate openings to absorb the entire AS schedule as it is now. If they combine on the VX gates there will be little, if any, available gate space to expand operations. If they split between VX gates and international it will be downright ugly to provide any connections between the two gate areas. The choice is to operate at distant ends of the airport with 2 check-ins or to combine on the VX ops and cut some service to make that possible and be left with several years of no real expansion opportunities. Yuck and yuck.


How long till AA can move to the new terminal? Is it known?


2020-2021 time frame to get back to the gate count of 2014 and another 2 years until the remaining gates open. A lot depends what gates are already leased and where openings are at. AA is already in boarding C and D I can't imagine they will add B to the mix so AS or DL will need to move in order they can pick up gates. WN remains in B however they have added flights however they are operating in a set of gates set aside from the demolition so they are closing in on a wall too. In boarding C they may have some gate openings depending if there isn't a shared gate with Delta or if they have gate availability on their own. One problem with SFO is I have never seen any information from the airport on gate assignments so there is some deduction to make. AS is easy because AA and VX currently share boarding D and VX has very high gate utilization already. There will be a quiz on this information Monday.


I might fail that test LOL I thought the new terminal was being built for AA. So it looks like a split opertation for AA at SFO even when its built and opened? There will be no blending of US and AA or AS and VA also it sound like.
 
atcpeter
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:47 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:26 am

grbauc wrote:
I might fail that test LOL I thought the new terminal was being built for AA. So it looks like a split opertation for AA at SFO even when its built and opened? There will be no blending of US and AA or AS and VA also it sound like.


The new terminal 1 will be all common-use gates, including several that will be FIS-capable once they complete a sterile connector between that and Intl A customs. Speculatively, the domestic airlines that would use the rebuilt T1 would be SY, HA, WN, B6 and F9. Either AA or VX/AS would move all their operations to T1 as well. More likely AA, since they currently have gates in two terminals, but nothing has been publicly announced.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:43 am

atcpeter wrote:
grbauc wrote:
I might fail that test LOL I thought the new terminal was being built for AA. So it looks like a split opertation for AA at SFO even when its built and opened? There will be no blending of US and AA or AS and VA also it sound like.


The new terminal 1 will be all common-use gates, including several that will be FIS-capable once they complete a sterile connector between that and Intl A customs. Speculatively, the domestic airlines that would use the rebuilt T1 would be SY, HA, WN, B6 and F9. Either AA or VX/AS would move all their operations to T1 as well. More likely AA, since they currently have gates in two terminals, but nothing has been publicly announced.

Thanks I was mistaken in my thoughts on that. I love the new terminal that AA is in now. Beautiful clubroom and very roomy seating area the way all terminals should be.
 
hayzel777
Posts: 668
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:18 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:24 am

hoo8myryce wrote:
Could SFO do some balancing in terms of filling up the bay but demolishing some land for the bay. I was thinking something like demolish taxiway "L" and make 1R into a taxiway then extend 1L and either or both of the 28s. Of course not sure how viable this could be to the overall operation at SFO

It will never be approved. When SFO proposed moving 28R out into the bay to expand the space between it and 28L, environmental groups flooded City Hall and the SFO admin office to oppose the plan. Eventually, SFO retracted its proposals.
 
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bdlflyer
Posts: 86
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:16 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:35 am

DaufuskieGuy wrote:
BDL used to be year round why they can't bring it back (timed with Asian/Aus/NZ flights) is really confounding...


With the PDEW of BDL-SFO being 174 I would think UA should be able to sustain a daily A319 / A320 BDL-SFO.
Bradley International Airport (BDL) | Gateway to New England | ❤️ Love The Journey | New England's second largest airport
 
simpv
Topic Author
Posts: 167
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:34 pm

So it looks like all of us underestimated the expansion capacity at SFO so far. UA and AS/VX have both announced substantial increases. How much longer can this continue?
 
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tacobell101
Posts: 116
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:41 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:01 pm

It seems like Cathay Pacific will add an A350 service to SFO

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... f-10mar17/
 
modesto2
Posts: 2731
Joined: Sun Jul 16, 2000 3:44 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Fri Mar 10, 2017 5:42 pm

In addition to the CX announcement of a 3x daily flight operated by the 359, looks like OZ is also swapping out their daily ICNSFO service with a 359 later this year:

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/air ... 0francisco
 
NichCage
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:43 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:17 pm

IAG will be launching flights between SFO and BCN possibly, so there will be even more growth to Europe.
 
TransGlobalGold
Posts: 248
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:40 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:22 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
SFO-CLD should be profitable.


Oooh! Is California Pacific going to try it again?
 
TransGlobalGold
Posts: 248
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:40 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:27 pm

hayzel777 wrote:
hoo8myryce wrote:
Could SFO do some balancing in terms of filling up the bay but demolishing some land for the bay. I was thinking something like demolish taxiway "L" and make 1R into a taxiway then extend 1L and either or both of the 28s. Of course not sure how viable this could be to the overall operation at SFO

It will never be approved. When SFO proposed moving 28R out into the bay to expand the space between it and 28L, environmental groups flooded City Hall and the SFO admin office to oppose the plan. Eventually, SFO retracted its proposals.


I've got some pdf's from a pretty old master plan where there was significant separation of the runways and building well out into the bay. It is obvious it wouldn't happen, but given the current administration in D.C. and the dismantling of regulations on basically every agency and industry, who knows? Maybe the'll even build that BART style train under the bay between SFO and OAK that was also proposed..
 
hayzel777
Posts: 668
Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2016 3:18 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:14 am

TransGlobalGold wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
hoo8myryce wrote:
Could SFO do some balancing in terms of filling up the bay but demolishing some land for the bay. I was thinking something like demolish taxiway "L" and make 1R into a taxiway then extend 1L and either or both of the 28s. Of course not sure how viable this could be to the overall operation at SFO

It will never be approved. When SFO proposed moving 28R out into the bay to expand the space between it and 28L, environmental groups flooded City Hall and the SFO admin office to oppose the plan. Eventually, SFO retracted its proposals.


I've got some pdf's from a pretty old master plan where there was significant separation of the runways and building well out into the bay. It is obvious it wouldn't happen, but given the current administration in D.C. and the dismantling of regulations on basically every agency and industry, who knows? Maybe the'll even build that BART style train under the bay between SFO and OAK that was also proposed..

Since the City of SF(opposed to the new admin) is the one responsible for the airport, there is no way that they will ever allow any of that to happen. The city would never approve of such a plan.
 
bfitzflyer
Posts: 484
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:02 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 2:16 am

SFO is pretty boxed in unless UA maintenance facility goes which I think was discussed in another forum. It is really tight right now terminal one mostly gone. Even when rebuilt with current traffic levels it will still be tight. I think they do need to consider something long term as gates are at a premium right now. Ultimately what is going to give short term relief will be the next downturn after dot com bust and 9/11 SFO traffic really dropped and I think that will be the case again, which is what is going to provide short term relief. Long term, it is really a wild card as to what happens.
 
GSP psgr
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:09 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:20 am

I'm at least mildly surprised UA hasn't tipped it's toe into the SFO-CLT market, which is just about the last big business market they don't serve.
 
simpv
Topic Author
Posts: 167
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:16 am

GSP psgr wrote:
I'm at least mildly surprised UA hasn't tipped it's toe into the SFO-CLT market, which is just about the last big business market they don't serve.


I agree; it seems like such a hole in their network. There aren't many left--perhaps CMH, MKE, and MEM, but are there any others left unserved by UA?

I'm still hoping that UA announces a few more long-hauls, like NGO, CTS, PUS, or SGN.

Also, with Avianca starting BOS, I would think they're also eyeing SFO.
 
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legacyins
Posts: 1960
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:11 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:39 am

Also, with Avianca starting BOS, I would think they're also eyeing SFO.


Avianca already flies to SFO.
 
simpv
Topic Author
Posts: 167
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:41 am

legacyins wrote:
Also, with Avianca starting BOS, I would think they're also eyeing SFO.


Avianca already flies to SFO.


Sorry, I meant Avianca to fly SFO-BOG.
 
GSP psgr
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:09 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:06 am

simpv wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
I'm at least mildly surprised UA hasn't tipped it's toe into the SFO-CLT market, which is just about the last big business market they don't serve.


I agree; it seems like such a hole in their network. There aren't many left--perhaps CMH, MKE, and MEM, but are there any others left unserved by UA?

I'm still hoping that UA announces a few more long-hauls, like NGO, CTS, PUS, or SGN.


Within the US/Canada, as far as possible mainline destinations, there's Charlotte and.....maybe Columbus (ignoring AC served Montreal and Toronto). After those two, you're looking at a fall down to the Norfolk/Jacksonville/Buffalo/Manchester level.

As far as longer RJ routes, maybe MKE, MEM, DSM, MSN, ELP, TUL, and SDF (and several of those stretch things a bit).
 
TransGlobalGold
Posts: 248
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:40 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:00 pm

hayzel777 wrote:
TransGlobalGold wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
It will never be approved. When SFO proposed moving 28R out into the bay to expand the space between it and 28L, environmental groups flooded City Hall and the SFO admin office to oppose the plan. Eventually, SFO retracted its proposals.


I've got some pdf's from a pretty old master plan where there was significant separation of the runways and building well out into the bay. It is obvious it wouldn't happen, but given the current administration in D.C. and the dismantling of regulations on basically every agency and industry, who knows? Maybe the'll even build that BART style train under the bay between SFO and OAK that was also proposed..

Since the City of SF(opposed to the new admin) is the one responsible for the airport, there is no way that they will ever allow any of that to happen. The city would never approve of such a plan.


I wasn't implying it would, just that the plans were interesting.. Environmental concerns would have kept it from even getting to the city for potential approval.
 
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Irehdna
Posts: 422
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:40 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:53 pm

Slightly on another note, but TG should definitely consider flying SFO-BKK non-stop, which is 12,765km. Both are *A hubs, and BKK is among the most visited cities in the would. Additionally, they can connect passengers to India/SE Asia much quicker than ME3.
 
TransGlobalGold
Posts: 248
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:40 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:13 pm

Irehdna wrote:
Slightly on another note, but TG should definitely consider flying SFO-BKK non-stop, which is 12,765km. Both are *A hubs, and BKK is among the most visited cities in the would. Additionally, they can connect passengers to India/SE Asia much quicker than ME3.


Not necessarily so, depending on your destination. SFO to most of India is shorter via the Middle East. After that, Malaysia and Indonesia are really the only cities that are closer via BKK. TG has flown to the US a couple times. Trying it again is just a waste of an airframe.
 
TransGlobalGold
Posts: 248
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:40 pm

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:14 pm

Irehdna wrote:
Slightly on another note, but TG should definitely consider flying SFO-BKK non-stop, which is 12,765km. Both are *A hubs, and BKK is among the most visited cities in the would. Additionally, they can connect passengers to India/SE Asia much quicker than ME3.


Not necessarily so, depending on your destination. SFO to most of India is shorter via the Middle East. Not to mention there is now a direct flight to India from SFO. After that, Malaysia and Indonesia are really the only countries that are closer via BKK. TG has flown to the US a couple times. Trying it again is just a waste of an airframe.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1238
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: What's next for SFO?

Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:19 pm

TransGlobalGold wrote:
hayzel777 wrote:
TransGlobalGold wrote:

I've got some pdf's from a pretty old master plan where there was significant separation of the runways and building well out into the bay. It is obvious it wouldn't happen, but given the current administration in D.C. and the dismantling of regulations on basically every agency and industry, who knows? Maybe the'll even build that BART style train under the bay between SFO and OAK that was also proposed..

Since the City of SF(opposed to the new admin) is the one responsible for the airport, there is no way that they will ever allow any of that to happen. The city would never approve of such a plan.


I wasn't implying it would, just that the plans were interesting.. Environmental concerns would have kept it from even getting to the city for potential approval.


San Francisco has changed quite a bit when it comes to development. Not saying runway separation will happen tomorrow, but it's not as much a pipe dream as it once was. Maybe in the next decade.

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