jumbojet
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:28 am

Cubsrule wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:
From the FL press release, this is telling:

"Additionally, several flights to San Francisco and Denver will be upgraded to larger mainline aircraft."

Nice to see larger aircraft which shows success in some of the markets out of SEA. AS is a top-notch competitor, but to the many doubters on this board that said DL would fail, they're wrong.


It shows no such thing. Do you think that all of the mainline that DL ran against FL to Podunk, USA, ten years ago "showed success?"


The one thing about the DL of today as opposed to the DL of 10 years ago is that if a route isn't a money maker, they will kill it. If SEA was a total money loser like some would like to believe, DL would not continue to add routes like they are; 5 consecutive years now.
 
StuckInCA
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:30 am

N717TW wrote:
I'm not sure that the lack of a nonstop flight between SEA and TPE is the route that evidences a failure of the TPAC gateway at SEA. Even though UA (and PA before that) have flown to TPE for decades and have had aircraft capable of nonstop service since the early 80s, a nonstop only started from SFO last year. SFO is also a much, much stronger gateway plus a well developed hub meaning you would expect that route first.


Eva Air flies SEA-TPE 10x weekly, so it's not that there's no market
 
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N717TW
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:45 am

StuckInCA wrote:
N717TW wrote:
I'm not sure that the lack of a nonstop flight between SEA and TPE is the route that evidences a failure of the TPAC gateway at SEA. Even though UA (and PA before that) have flown to TPE for decades and have had aircraft capable of nonstop service since the early 80s, a nonstop only started from SFO last year. SFO is also a much, much stronger gateway plus a well developed hub meaning you would expect that route first.


Eva Air flies SEA-TPE 10x weekly, so it's not that there's no market


I was thinking more from a US carrier perspective, but you raise a very fair point. (although the very expense of that level of service--and that its existed for such a long time--probably means DL won't try.)
Last edited by N717TW on Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:45 am

Hope y'all need to go to BNA, MKE or RDU out of SEA...it's going be ugly as they don't need this many seats and the fares are going to be rock-bottom.
 
b6sea
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:32 am

hiflyeras wrote:
Hope y'all need to go to BNA, MKE or RDU out of SEA...it's going be ugly as they don't need this many seats and the fares are going to be rock-bottom.


Thinking the same thing.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:20 am

The one thing about the DL of today as opposed to the DL of 10 years ago is that if a route isn't a money maker, they will kill it. If SEA was a total money loser like some would like to believe, DL would not continue to add routes like they are; 5 consecutive years now.

It has taken a few years for DL to develop their presence on the west coast...not just SEA.
 
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intotheair
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:49 am

ytib wrote:
intotheair wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:
From the FL press release, this is telling:

"Additionally, several flights to San Francisco and Denver will be upgraded to larger mainline aircraft."

Nice to see larger aircraft which shows success in some of the markets out of SEA. AS is a top-notch competitor, but to the many doubters on this board that said DL would fail, they're wrong.


Nice to see more mainline, though I'm not sure if it's all that much of a change. 717s were taken off SEA-DEN fairly recently (within the last few months), but it will be nice to have them back.


Agreed, I believe it is a seasonal switch from mainline to regional but something to add to the release. I have done the 717 from DEN-SEA. AS also has added an extra flight in the evening from SEA-DEN, which then is 6a and 8a in the morning back to SEA.

I have also been on AS flights from DEN-SEA midweek with 50 people on the upgrade list. It is a popular route and with five options AS/DL/F9/UA/WN flying as well.


It's great to see DL getting stronger in the west and at DEN, even if it isn't the main focus of this thread. I would love to see mainline on LAX-DEN as well. I think there were maybe one or two frequencies on some days with the 717 when it started a few months ago, but it's all regional now. The E175s are a nice ride, but it would be cool to have something larger. Despite switching much of my flying to DL last year, I haven't actually set foot on a mainline DL aircraft in more than a decade.
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Alsatian
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:40 am

N717TW wrote:
Does anyone know what four top-20 markets from SEA that DL isn't serving? From BTS data I can see #7 Chicago and #9 Dallas are two of them but not sure of the 11 to 20 top markets.


OAK for sure. And maybe IAH ?
Next flights :
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jumbojet
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:25 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Hope y'all need to go to BNA, MKE or RDU out of SEA...it's going be ugly as they don't need this many seats and the fares are going to be rock-bottom.


Pick any hub for any airline in the USA and you will see the same thing. I don't think DL is to worried about that. Just wait till next year, cant wait to see what gems they will add. An Anet staple saying, more competition is good for the consumer. Cant wait for the international additions once the new FID is built.
 
runway23
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:09 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
The one thing about the DL of today as opposed to the DL of 10 years ago is that if a route isn't a money maker, they will kill it. If SEA was a total money loser like some would like to believe, DL would not continue to add routes like they are; 5 consecutive years now.

It has taken a few years for DL to develop their presence on the west coast...not just SEA.


DL unlike 10 years ago is not in bankruptcy and is now in a very tight oligopoly, which wasn't the case back then. Add petroleum prices which were skyrocketing and less efficient operations and costs.

Today, DL has lots of money in the bank and can easily throw money down the SEA pit, hoping that it pays off in the long run. The conditions for DL to build up a hub in SEA just didn't exist 5 or 10 years back. The cost of running an unprofitable operation short-term may be worth it strategically if you believe long-term you can be profitable whether it be locally or network wise. I think that's the reasoning behind DL continuing to invest heavily in SEA, whether it is less profitable than other hubs or not. Therefore I don't believe the fact that DL is adding routes at SEA points to the operation being profitable or not.
 
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compensateme
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:02 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
The one thing about the DL of today as opposed to the DL of 10 years ago is that if a route isn't a money maker, they will kill it. If SEA was a total money loser like some would like to believe, DL would not continue to add routes like they are; 5 consecutive years now.

It has taken a few years for DL to develop their presence on the west coast...not just SEA.


I don't think anybody is suggesting SEA is a "total money loser."

What I've suggested is that the SEA hub originated to contribute to the t-pac services, but now the t-pac services are contributing to the domestic network. DL has raved about SEA's domestic performance to investors, but has remained silent on t-pac services other than to say they'll consider expanding once the FIS is expanded. While DL has remained stagnant to Asia (even reducing NRT & PVG), it's added flights to Mexico during peak FIS hours; other airlines have added (and upgauged) longhaul services during peak FIS times. Meanwhile, DL's withdrawing from TPE, letting go local management with decades of experience. That's pretty telling.

Our trijet poster will tell us DL is unable to add t-pac services because it'd be lying to investors, but that's completely false. Nothing stopped DL from adding SEA (or DTW, or ATL, or LAX) - TPE other than the fact that it didn't perceive it to be a viable flight. Of course, our trijet post believes that unless it's on APC fourm, it's not true.
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enilria
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:40 pm

compensateme wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
The one thing about the DL of today as opposed to the DL of 10 years ago is that if a route isn't a money maker, they will kill it. If SEA was a total money loser like some would like to believe, DL would not continue to add routes like they are; 5 consecutive years now.

It has taken a few years for DL to develop their presence on the west coast...not just SEA.


I don't think anybody is suggesting SEA is a "total money loser."

What I've suggested is that the SEA hub originated to contribute to the t-pac services, but now the t-pac services are contributing to the domestic network. DL has raved about SEA's domestic performance to investors, but has remained silent on t-pac services other than to say they'll consider expanding once the FIS is expanded. While DL has remained stagnant to Asia (even reducing NRT & PVG), it's added flights to Mexico during peak FIS hours; other airlines have added (and upgauged) longhaul services during peak FIS times. Meanwhile, DL's withdrawing from TPE, letting go local management with decades of experience. That's pretty telling.

Our trijet poster will tell us DL is unable to add t-pac services because it'd be lying to investors, but that's completely false. Nothing stopped DL from adding SEA (or DTW, or ATL, or LAX) - TPE other than the fact that it didn't perceive it to be a viable flight. Of course, our trijet post believes that unless it's on APC fourm, it's not true.
jumbojet wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:
From the FL press release, this is telling:

"Additionally, several flights to San Francisco and Denver will be upgraded to larger mainline aircraft."

Nice to see larger aircraft which shows success in some of the markets out of SEA. AS is a top-notch competitor, but to the many doubters on this board that said DL would fail, they're wrong.


It shows no such thing. Do you think that all of the mainline that DL ran against FL to Podunk, USA, ten years ago "showed success?"


The one thing about the DL of today as opposed to the DL of 10 years ago is that if a route isn't a money maker, they will kill it. If SEA was a total money loser like some would like to believe, DL would not continue to add routes like they are; 5 consecutive years now.

So, I think SEA as a whole is profitable now for DL as a result of the following factors 1) time improves results, 2) they have expanded slowly lately which helps a lot, 3) fuel is cheap, and 4) DL doesn't give up easily in strategic moves.

While I think SEA now makes money, the DOT data proves their profit margins are far below other DL hubs. I think if you are MFR and you can show a flight to MSP will have a 10% profit and a flight to SEA will have a 5% profit they will do the lower margin SEA flight because strategically the MSP flight means nothing to them. So they are not profit optimizing their network in the short term. They are investing through purposefully lower margins to build SEA. OTOH every business does that sort of thing. Clearly Coke Zero does not increase Coke average margins. It's an investment and a hedge against changing consumer tastes. A long term play. Just like SEA.
 
DFW789ER
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:38 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
DFW789ER wrote:
compensateme wrote:

It was clearly a faux edit.

1) The person also updated SEA (and SFO's) most trafficked route to "Monterey, Mexico;"
2) July 1st is a Saturday... DL ain't starting new routes on a Saturday...

Yet a few people believed it...


Why do people put their trust in an online "encyclopedia" that a ten year old can edit?


Why not? We trust an A.net that now any ten year old can post in?


Some may trust comments here, I for one take many with a grain of salt. It's not that difficult to fact check, and not using Wikipedia.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:20 am

When the travel industry and airline industry heads south, I believe DL will call off the SEA hub first.
 
StuckInCA
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:10 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
When the travel industry and airline industry heads south, I believe DL will call off the SEA hub first.


Can you provide some detail on this theory?
 
klkla
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:11 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
When the travel industry and airline industry heads south, I believe DL will call off the SEA hub first.


I would say the odds are you're correct. But there are scenarios where SEA could thrive. If fuel prices were to spike again SEA would have an advantage because of shorter flight distances (and therefore less fuel consumed).

Another thing to look at is what would happen to AS if there's an economic downturn. There are many people that think AS paid way too much for VA and that could put them at a competitive disadvantage. They would be particularly vulnerable over the next two to three years if the the travel industry and airline industry head south.
 
commavia
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:44 pm

Schedules for (mostly) this latest round of SEA expansion are loaded and available for sale. A few interesting, if not necessarily surprising, notes:

* Delta appears to have scheduled the new AUS and BNA routes like MKE - ~1700 SEA departures, late morning SEA arrivals - so these flights will be timed to catch all the outbound Asia departures (although with long layovers for PVG/HKG/PEK) but will have very long layovers from all the Asia arrivals
* The second daily BOS frequency appears to be a westbound evening departuer and eastbound redeye, which compliments the existing schedule well
* The individual flights to DEN and SFO that were upgauged to mainline appear, logically, to be those best-timed for Asia connections in one or both directions
 
seatback
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:28 pm

CMHMarc787 wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
I would guess, Oakland, Burbank and a couple of Midwestern cities, Indianapolis and Chicago...


papatango wrote:
Columbus Ohio. PLEASE!


I highly doubt BUR would be on their radar. AS already has a good hold on this route, so I just don't see that happening.

As for CMH...Yes, Please!!!!!


Since CVG can't handle a year-round flight, I doubt CMH or IND could.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:30 pm

commavia wrote:
* Delta appears to have scheduled the new AUS and BNA routes like MKE - ~1700 SEA departures, late morning SEA arrivals - so these flights will be timed to catch all the outbound Asia departures (although with long layovers for PVG/HKG/PEK) but will have very long layovers from all the Asia arrivals

DTW is the Asia hub for BNA and to a lesser extent for AUS. It thus makes sense that that would not take up a prime Asia connecting "slot" with these flights. O&D and PNW connections are far more important, especially for BNA which has only limited connections available at SLC because that flight only operates once daily.
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commavia
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:37 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
DTW is the Asia hub for BNA and to a lesser extent for AUS. It thus makes sense that that would not take up a prime Asia connecting "slot" with these flights. O&D and PNW connections are far more important, especially for BNA which has only limited connections available at SLC because that flight only operates once daily.


Very good point. And indeed, the BNA-SEA flights are timed pretty well for connections to/from the one Asian market not flown nonstop from DTW - which is HKG.

On the second point about complimenting SLC, I don't disagree but do think it's notable that the departures to all three of Delta's nonstop destinations in the western U.S. out of BNA leave within 30 minutes of each other in the morning - including the 0720 SLC and 0730 SEA - plus the one late afternoon LAX. It's interesting that SEA and SLC are scheduled so similarly.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:14 pm

commavia wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
DTW is the Asia hub for BNA and to a lesser extent for AUS. It thus makes sense that that would not take up a prime Asia connecting "slot" with these flights. O&D and PNW connections are far more important, especially for BNA which has only limited connections available at SLC because that flight only operates once daily.


Very good point. And indeed, the BNA-SEA flights are timed pretty well for connections to/from the one Asian market not flown nonstop from DTW - which is HKG.

On the second point about complimenting SLC, I don't disagree but do think it's notable that the departures to all three of Delta's nonstop destinations in the western U.S. out of BNA leave within 30 minutes of each other in the morning - including the 0720 SLC and 0730 SEA - plus the one late afternoon LAX. It's interesting that SEA and SLC are scheduled so similarly.


I expect that they will retime BNA-SLC. That started as an OO route for maintenance rotation, and that dictated the not-always-convenient schedule. Now, though, it's on the Airbus and in most schedules BNA has 10+ Airbus flights to multiple other hubs. That plus the fact that our ATL flights are relatively fungible means a lot of flexibility.
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b6sea
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:28 pm

enilria wrote:

So, I think SEA as a whole is profitable now for DL as a result of the following factors 1) time improves results, 2) they have expanded slowly lately which helps a lot, 3) fuel is cheap, and 4) DL doesn't give up easily in strategic moves.

While I think SEA now makes money, the DOT data proves their profit margins are far below other DL hubs. I think if you are MFR and you can show a flight to MSP will have a 10% profit and a flight to SEA will have a 5% profit they will do the lower margin SEA flight because strategically the MSP flight means nothing to them. So they are not profit optimizing their network in the short term. They are investing through purposefully lower margins to build SEA. OTOH every business does that sort of thing. Clearly Coke Zero does not increase Coke average margins. It's an investment and a hedge against changing consumer tastes. A long term play. Just like SEA.


I agree, I think SEA is probably profitable for DL by now, at least overall. I imagine there are some routes that are bleeding a little more than others, but I think largely the major capacity increases over the past several years in SEA by DL have been absorbed by the market. I don't know that it can continue forever, but for now it seems like DL is doing quite well.

I still think that if the economy soured, DL would cut and run, but that also doesn't appear imminent and at some point DL will be entrenched enough that an economic shock wouldn't hurt them as badly as it would while they're building the hub. I don't know when that point will be passed, but I don't think we're quite there yet.
 
Prost
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:25 am

The economy of SEA however doesn't always mirror the overall US economy. Frequently we are harder hit, yet sometimes we seem to escape recessions relatively unscathed. To say a slowing economy would affect DL's SEA operation depends a lot on what is causing the slowdown. Is it another tech meltdown that will hammer Microsoft and Amazon? Then yeah, it'll affect the SEA market, but if it's not tech related, I think SEA is well placed to handle the fluctuations of the economy.
 
Lexy
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:02 am

They will do well from BNA. It's a lucrative market and one of the fastest growing cities in the country. I'm sure DL will be just fine on it contrary to what most here on ANet think.
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ERJ170
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sun Jan 15, 2017 1:37 pm

It's so odd the RDU route was announced in the press release like its new news.. the route was announced in Oct of last year.. I could u sweat and if they were upgaufing or adding additional segments, but it was just a reannounce.. oh well. There are currently 2 new routes awaiting initiation (SEA and AUS). Can't wait to see what DL has in store next...

In other thoughts, I'm trying to figure out where would be the next east coast destination from SEA. I can really only think of CLT, CMH, IND, and BDL... and of those, I'm not sure if they have the base (CLT) or pax count (BDL) to work... IND and CMH is possible with the CSeries, I would guess..
Aiming High and going far..
 
commavia
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sun Jan 15, 2017 1:51 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
It's so odd the RDU route was announced in the press release like its new news.. the route was announced in Oct of last year


It's P.R. - and Delta is actually particularly great at it ("Seattle's largest global airline," etc.).

ERJ170 wrote:
In other thoughts, I'm trying to figure out where would be the next east coast destination from SEA. I can really only think of CLT, CMH, IND, and BDL... and of those, I'm not sure if they have the base (CLT) or pax count (BDL) to work... IND and CMH is possible with the CSeries, I would guess..


WAS (so likely IAD) seems to me like the largest gap at this point. It's hard to imagine BDL being large enough to support a nonstop to SEA, and I doubt Delta would go into CLT given its size and the existing capacity in the market. I agree that, given both market/competitive dynamics at Delta's local presence, IND and CMH both seem at least plausible with an appropriately-sized aircraft. Beyond that, I could also potentially see a nonstop to South Florida - likely FLL but maybe MIA - and also PHL. After WAS, I believe PHL and South Florida are the largest metro areas in the eastern U.S. without a Delta nonstop to SEA.
 
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flymco753
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:22 pm

commavia wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
Beyond that, I could also potentially see a nonstop to South Florida - likely FLL but maybe MIA
DL runs winter seasonal FLL service from SEA, 1x weekly 757. SEA also has a seasonal MCO flight 1x daily 757 in the winter and spring, than 1x 739 in the summer. FLL could do what MCO does and than DL could do a seasonal 757 to TPA. Those are the only 3 markets DL really needs to do out of SEA.
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msycajun
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:36 pm

Looking at the Q2 2016 numbers, the 10 largest metro markets without DL service to SEA are, in order:
ORD
WAS
DFW
IAH
(AUS)
PHL
STL
MCI
TPA
(BNA)
MSY
(RDU)
SAT

with announced service in parentheses.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:54 pm

SEA-MCI should be within range of an E75. SEA-everything else on your list looks like it would need mainline (and greater than 717) range.
 
Jshank83
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sun Jan 15, 2017 8:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
SEA-MCI should be within range of an E75. SEA-everything else on your list looks like it would need mainline (and greater than 717) range.


SEA-STL would be in range for a E75 also. AS is going to run one on one of its daily flights in the summer.
 
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jbpdx
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
SEA-MCI should be within range of an E75. SEA-everything else on your list looks like it would need mainline (and greater than 717) range.


Alaska flies EMB175s PDX-MCI and PDX-STL
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CMHMarc787
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Mon Jan 16, 2017 7:24 pm

seatback wrote:
CMHMarc787 wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
I would guess, Oakland, Burbank and a couple of Midwestern cities, Indianapolis and Chicago...


papatango wrote:
Columbus Ohio. PLEASE!


I highly doubt BUR would be on their radar. AS already has a good hold on this route, so I just don't see that happening.

As for CMH...Yes, Please!!!!!


Since CVG can't handle a year-round flight, I doubt CMH or IND could.


The difference is that CMH has a Boeing facility that is about to grow by leaps and bounds, which will be a call for both SEA and STL flights (the majority of the facility is military, so STL will also experience a rise in traffic between the two).

Between Boeing, and a good TPAC connection, I definitely think CMH will be able to fill the route.
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Mon Jan 16, 2017 7:36 pm

msycajun wrote:
Looking at the Q2 2016 numbers, the 10 largest metro markets without DL service to SEA are, in order:
ORD
WAS
DFW
IAH
(AUS)
PHL
STL
MCI
TPA
(BNA)
MSY
(RDU)
SAT

with announced service in parentheses.


Thanks for the list. TPA is my home airport and so I'm hoping they start service to both SEA and SLC.
 
msycajun
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Mon Jan 16, 2017 7:54 pm

CMHMarc787 wrote:
seatback wrote:
CMHMarc787 wrote:
As for CMH...Yes, Please!!!!!


Since CVG can't handle a year-round flight, I doubt CMH or IND could.


The difference is that CMH has a Boeing facility that is about to grow by leaps and bounds, which will be a call for both SEA and STL flights (the majority of the facility is military, so STL will also experience a rise in traffic between the two).

Between Boeing, and a good TPAC connection, I definitely think CMH will be able to fill the route.


If CMH gets SEA, it'll most likely be on AS not DL, especially if Boeing is driving traffic. AS started SEA-CHS pretty much for that reason.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:08 am

CMHMarc787 wrote:
seatback wrote:
CMHMarc787 wrote:



I highly doubt BUR would be on their radar. AS already has a good hold on this route, so I just don't see that happening.

As for CMH...Yes, Please!!!!!


Since CVG can't handle a year-round flight, I doubt CMH or IND could.


The difference is that CMH has a Boeing facility that is about to grow by leaps and bounds, which will be a call for both SEA and STL flights (the majority of the facility is military, so STL will also experience a rise in traffic between the two).

Between Boeing, and a good TPAC connection, I definitely think CMH will be able to fill the route.


Didn't realize Boeing was in Columbus, but there's also a fairly new (or at least newly-signed) Boeing office in Dayton across the street from Wright State.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
bkflyguy
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:25 pm

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:25 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
SEA-MCI should be within range of an E75. SEA-everything else on your list looks like it would need mainline (and greater than 717) range.


They will be perfect CS100 cities though......
 
n7371f
Topic Author
Posts: 1529
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Tue Jan 17, 2017 4:17 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
Finally, the results are out.

OAK loses out again...no nonstop flights.


It's on the radar. Not sure if it gets added as the last batch of E7W's come on-line but OAK is on the list.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6231
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Tue Jan 17, 2017 6:49 am

CMHMarc787 wrote:
seatback wrote:
CMHMarc787 wrote:



I highly doubt BUR would be on their radar. AS already has a good hold on this route, so I just don't see that happening.

As for CMH...Yes, Please!!!!!


Since CVG can't handle a year-round flight, I doubt CMH or IND could.


The difference is that CMH has a Boeing facility that is about to grow by leaps and bounds, which will be a call for both SEA and STL flights (the majority of the facility is military, so STL will also experience a rise in traffic between the two).

Between Boeing, and a good TPAC connection, I definitely think CMH will be able to fill the route.


I'm not aware that Boeing has a big facility in Columbus. Here's the old A.net fallacy again that just because company A has facilities in ABC and XYZ then there must be a market for a daily flight. I'm not saying that SEA-CMH might not be viable but it's not because Boeing might have a large facility there that somehow I missed.
 
CMHMarc787
Posts: 88
Joined: Sat Nov 23, 2013 9:09 pm

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:17 pm

Boeing has a maintenance facility just east of Columbus at the old Newark Air Force Base. While it's currently a moderately-sized facility, it is gearing up for a significant expansion on a few different fronts.

Also, I agree that neither a single, nor duel situational occurrence traditionally warrants the start of a route, I believe that the Boeing factor is more of a closing argument for why the route should be established.

Now, as for who actually runs the route, I honestly couldn't care less (except that I am AAdvantage, so AS would at-least allow me to earn miles).
 
fmi1
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:41 am

Freshside3 wrote:
ICT, perhaps, due to both being aviation capitals.
PIT---somebody's got to do that one. Lots of demand on SEA-PIT, and neither AS nor DL are "blinking".
And dare I say seasonal SEA-MAN service?


I really thought PIT would be one of the routes added. Maybe, they will end up an AS route instead.
 
Indy
Posts: 4840
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:58 am

seatback wrote:
Since CVG can't handle a year-round flight, I doubt CMH or IND could.


IND can easily handle a year-round flight. I am just not sure they can handle two daily flights. With Alaska starting service late spring, I am not sure DL could or would start a flight. Indiana has a booming tech industry so it is quite possible that a combination of O/D as well as feed to Asia that DL could justify the route.

Here is more on Indiana's tech growth.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/indiana- ... mecca.html
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
n7371f
Topic Author
Posts: 1529
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:05 am

Indy wrote:
seatback wrote:
Since CVG can't handle a year-round flight, I doubt CMH or IND could.


IND can easily handle a year-round flight. I am just not sure they can handle two daily flights. With Alaska starting service late spring, I am not sure DL could or would start a flight. Indiana has a booming tech industry so it is quite possible that a combination of O/D as well as feed to Asia that DL could justify the route.

Here is more on Indiana's tech growth.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/indiana- ... mecca.html


NWA made SEA-IND work 2-3 summers before merger.
 
DeSpringbokke
Posts: 367
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:27 am

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:45 am

Indy wrote:
seatback wrote:
Since CVG can't handle a year-round flight, I doubt CMH or IND could.


IND can easily handle a year-round flight. I am just not sure they can handle two daily flights. With Alaska starting service late spring, I am not sure DL could or would start a flight. Indiana has a booming tech industry so it is quite possible that a combination of O/D as well as feed to Asia that DL could justify the route.

Here is more on Indiana's tech growth.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/indiana- ... mecca.html


I suspect CVG/IND-SEA will be considered once the CSeries is in the fleet. The CSeries should be able to significantly expand the scope of domestic destinations ex-SEA to feed SEA-Pacific flights.
 
ldvaviation
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:21 pm

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:12 am

Indy wrote:
Here is more on Indiana's tech growth.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/indiana- ... mecca.html


That is hardly convincing.

According to other sources, from 2014 to 2015, Indiana is not in the Top 5 for percentage increase in tech sector jobs. See the CyberStates 2016 study.
 
cvgComair
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Re: DL SEA Domestic Expansion (again)

Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:21 am

DeSpringbokke wrote:
Indy wrote:
seatback wrote:
Since CVG can't handle a year-round flight, I doubt CMH or IND could.


IND can easily handle a year-round flight. I am just not sure they can handle two daily flights. With Alaska starting service late spring, I am not sure DL could or would start a flight. Indiana has a booming tech industry so it is quite possible that a combination of O/D as well as feed to Asia that DL could justify the route.

Here is more on Indiana's tech growth.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/indiana- ... mecca.html


I suspect CVG/IND-SEA will be considered once the CSeries is in the fleet. The CSeries should be able to significantly expand the scope of domestic destinations ex-SEA to feed SEA-Pacific flights.


Delta already serves CVG-SEA with a 752/739, depends on the summer. They also have extended the route through November on an A319, so it looks like CVG-SEA might be going year-round again.

CVG will see 3x/day LAX, 3-4x/day LAS, 3x/day SFO, 1-2x/day PHX, 4-5x/day DEN, 2x/day SLC, and 1x/day SEA this summer. SEA is by far the weakest major west coast city from CVG (excluding PDX and SAN, which do not have nonstops currently) but with Delta's operations in both cities, I could see a 2nd daily flights as both hubs continue to grow.

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