The DOT has instituted the Slot Assignment Phase of the Delta-Aeromexico ATI Proceeding to allocate slots being divested by Delta and Aeromexico at Mexico City’s Benito Juarez International Airport and New York JFK.
The Department is requesting proposals from eligible carriers to utilize the divested slots by January 23, 2017.

Initially, 14 MEX slot-pairs and two JFK slot-pairs, will be transferred by AM/DL to the carriers chosen by the Department through this proceeding that are effective May 2017.

The remaining 10 MEX slot-pairs and two JFK slot-pairs also will be assigned through this proceeding; however, the carriers selected to obtain the Phase Two slots must demonstrate they have exhausted reasonable efforts to acquire the slots themselves through the respective airports’ normal allocation process. Phase Two slots to be transferred for use in the IATA S18 scheduling season.

The Final Order established lists of eligible carriers to receive slots at each airport.
At MEX, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, JetBlue, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Volaris, and VivaAerobus.
At JFK, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Interjet, Volaris and VivaAerobus.


Order 2017-1-6

=

Please help me to understand how/why the DOT gets to make the awards at a Mexican airport. Has the Mexican government ceded to DOT the right to do this?

LAXintl wrote:

The Final Order established lists of eligible carriers to receive slots at each airport.
At MEX, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, JetBlue, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Volaris, and VivaAerobus.
At JFK, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Interjet, Volaris and VivaAerobus.

Since the DOT is running this case, would the slots have to be used for MEX-US service? (I presume they would). Either way, I can't see any of those US carriers having a high level of interest, as they don't serve MEX now. (Several of them serve Mexico, but to leisure destinations). Interjet, Volaris, and VivaAerobus will likely be interested though.

And do the JFK slots have to be used for MEX or can they be used for any city?

BobPatterson wrote:

Please help me to understand how/why the DOT gets to make the awards at a Mexican airport. Has the Mexican government ceded to DOT the right to do this?

I'm not sure I understand your question. DL and AM own the slot pairs. DOT can tell DL and AM that they will not be approved unless the divest certain property (including slot pairs) regardless of the issuer or location of the slot pairs. It's no different from AA/BA relinquishing LHR slot pairs during their proceeding.

These are not just any MEX slots, they are slots belonging to AM and DL that are being given up in agreement with the DOT in exchange for receiving antitrust immunity for their joint venture. The Mexican authorities have their own process, but required fewer slots be divested.

As for JFK, I would predict that one pair goes to a Mexican carrier and one to AS/VX or an outside possibly SY or HA. Pretty much everyone will be after MEX slots, with WN likely to get the most.

ty97 wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

Either way, I can't see any of those US carriers having a high level of interest, as they don't serve MEX now. (Several of them serve Mexico, but to leisure destinations). Interjet, Volaris, and VivaAerobus will likely be interested though.

And do the JFK slots have to be used for MEX or can they be used for any city?

For sure B6 will start JFK now, maybe AUS, WN would likely get some, NK most likely also to MCO or FLL, VX/AS could also surprise us with SEA or SFO. Frontier likely will add MCO or ORD.

A slot restricted airport is an almost guaranteed cash cow.

ty97 wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

The Final Order established lists of eligible carriers to receive slots at each airport.
At MEX, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, JetBlue, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Volaris, and VivaAerobus.
At JFK, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Interjet, Volaris and VivaAerobus.

Since the DOT is running this case, would the slots have to be used for MEX-US service? (I presume they would). Either way, I can't see any of those US carriers having a high level of interest, as they don't serve MEX now. (Several of them serve Mexico, but to leisure destinations). Interjet, Volaris, and VivaAerobus will likely be interested though.

And do the JFK slots have to be used for MEX or can they be used for any city?

I can assure you WN will be applying, likely ambitiously.

Because the applicants accepted DOT request to divest slots as remedy to their ATI JV application being approved.

Really no different than foreign government issuing remedies as part of other merger/investment deals involving US companies in other fields such as healthcare, hotels, manufacturing that might require adjustment to parts of their existing business. EU competition authorities for example regularly places remedy conditions on US companies as part of having deals approved.

It would not surprise me to see WN request for 10 slot pairs. Although I don't think it will happen I can also see them asking for the JFK slots. B6,AS and maybe Spirit will ask for mex slots. Don't see any others asking.


WW

Cubsrule wrote:

BobPatterson wrote:

Please help me to understand how/why the DOT gets to make the awards at a Mexican airport. Has the Mexican government ceded to DOT the right to do this?

I'm not sure I understand your question. DL and AM own the slot pairs. DOT can tell DL and AM that they will not be approved unless the divest certain property (including slot pairs) regardless of the issuer or location of the slot pairs. It's no different from AA/BA relinquishing LHR slot pairs during their proceeding.

I can understand DOT telling them they must make divestments in order to receive regulatory approval of permission(s) being sought.

What I do not understand is why the slots to be handed off in Mexico are to be approved only by American authorities.

I see WN going after MEX for service to AUS, SAT, PHX, LAS, and FLL. B6 might add frequencies to FLL. NK could go for MEX-FLL or MEX-MCO. F9 could go for MEX-DEN or MEX-MCO. AS/VX for MEX-SEA and MEX-SFO. As for the JFK slots the only airline I see going after them (from that list) AS/VX, SY, Interjet, or Volaris.

BobPatterson wrote:

I can understand DOT telling them they must make divestments in order to receive regulatory approval of permission(s) being sought.

What I do not understand is why the slots to be handed off in Mexico are to be approved only by American authorities.

As I understand it, the bilateral agreement requires authorities from each country to approve new air services between the countries, even at airports without slot restrictions. So it's not really about awarding operating slots at MEX (Mexico controls their own airport operations) -- it is about awarding the authority to operate routes between MEX and the USA. Mexico also has to approve of the decisions, AFAIK, but I expect that there is at least some agreement from Mexican authorities to go along with DOT's process and award the actual airport slots to the airlines that DOT approves to operate the routes. Maybe I'm way off, but that is how I understand it.

ty97 wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

The Final Order established lists of eligible carriers to receive slots at each airport.
At MEX, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, JetBlue, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Volaris, and VivaAerobus.
At JFK, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Interjet, Volaris and VivaAerobus.

Since the DOT is running this case, would the slots have to be used for MEX-US service? (I presume they would). Either way, I can't see any of those US carriers having a high level of interest, as they don't serve MEX now. (Several of them serve Mexico, but to leisure destinations). Interjet, Volaris, and VivaAerobus will likely be interested though.

And do the JFK slots have to be used for MEX or can they be used for any city?

JetBlue already flies to MEX via MCO and FLL.

FLIHGH wrote:

JetBlue already flies to MEX via MCO and FLL.

Huh, I missed that. Thanks!

I hope someone can give Mex to Msp a try the Twin Cities has a pretty large Mexican population now that could use a better flight to Mexico instead of doing Slc or Dfw to Mex than onto their destination.

ty97 wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

The Final Order established lists of eligible carriers to receive slots at each airport.
At MEX, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, JetBlue, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Volaris, and VivaAerobus.
At JFK, the carriers are:
Alaska, Southwest, Frontier, Sun Country, Virgin America, Allegiant, Spirit, Hawaiian, Interjet, Volaris and VivaAerobus.

Since the DOT is running this case, would the slots have to be used for MEX-US service? (I presume they would). Either way, I can't see any of those US carriers having a high level of interest, as they don't serve MEX now. (Several of them serve Mexico, but to leisure destinations). Interjet, Volaris, and VivaAerobus will likely be interested though.

And do the JFK slots have to be used for MEX or can they be used for any city?

WN serves MEX and has been trying to secure more slots for at least 2 years.

usflyguy wrote:

WN serves MEX and has been trying to secure more slots for at least 2 years.

Between B6 and this, it appears I totally missed the boat on MEX service. Had no idea either of them served MEX!

AA might be interested in JFK-MEX slots.

georgiabill wrote:

AA might be interested in JFK-MEX slots.

These are not "JFK-MEX" slots and AA isn't an allowed participant in either proceeding.

WN will try to secure all of these slots, and I also wouldn't be shocked to see them start service at JFK just to secure the JFK slots as well.

georgiabill wrote:

AA might be interested in JFK-MEX slots.

American (or United) are not eligible for these slots.

fsafsx wrote:

I hope someone can give Mex to Msp a try the Twin Cities has a pretty large Mexican population now that could use a better flight to Mexico instead of doing Slc or Dfw to Mex than onto their destination.

SY is technically eligible, but with how they are handling Cuba (been awarded, but now asking for 1 year delay) the DOT might be apprehensive to award them a slot.

SWADawg wrote:

WN will try to secure all of these slots, and I also wouldn't be shocked to see them start service at JFK just to secure the JFK slots as well.

I would be surprised if they tried to stand up ops at JFK for 1 or 2 flights, but anything is possible.

ty97 wrote:

SWADawg wrote:

WN will try to secure all of these slots, and I also wouldn't be shocked to see them start service at JFK just to secure the JFK slots as well.

I would be surprised if they tried to stand up ops at JFK for 1 or 2 flights, but anything is possible.

It looks like there are 2 slot pairs in the first application award and 2 slot pairs in the second award for a potential total of 4 daily flights if I'm reading that right.

SWADawg wrote:

ty97 wrote:

SWADawg wrote:

WN will try to secure all of these slots, and I also wouldn't be shocked to see them start service at JFK just to secure the JFK slots as well.

I would be surprised if they tried to stand up ops at JFK for 1 or 2 flights, but anything is possible.

It looks like there are 2 slot pairs in the first application award and 2 slot pairs in the second award for a potential total of 4 daily flights if I'm reading that right.

True, but that would assume WN could get all 4 which is unlikely if anyone else applies.

ty97 wrote:

SWADawg wrote:

ty97 wrote:

I would be surprised if they tried to stand up ops at JFK for 1 or 2 flights, but anything is possible.

It looks like there are 2 slot pairs in the first application award and 2 slot pairs in the second award for a potential total of 4 daily flights if I'm reading that right.

True, but that would assume WN could get all 4 which is unlikely if anyone else applies.

WN will bid for any and all slots at MEX.
Depending on the number of awards they receive this will most likely spell the end for FNT and GSP to free up aircraft for increased MEX service.
If WN is successful with grabbing JFK slots.
This would also probably see the elimination of ROC and DSM to free up JFK service with a minimum of 5 or 6 flights.
Flyguy

wnflyguy wrote:

ty97 wrote:

SWADawg wrote:

It looks like there are 2 slot pairs in the first application award and 2 slot pairs in the second award for a potential total of 4 daily flights if I'm reading that right.

True, but that would assume WN could get all 4 which is unlikely if anyone else applies.

WN will bid for any and all slots at MEX.
Depending on the number of awards they receive this will most likely spell the end for FNT and GSP to free up aircraft for increased MEX service.
If WN is successful with grabbing JFK slots.
This would also probably see the elimination of ROC and DSM to free up JFK service with a minimum of 5 or 6 flights.
Flyguy

My response was to specific to JFK (where I think there are only 4 slot pairs total in play, and only 2 pairs during this round)

wnflyguy wrote:

ty97 wrote:

SWADawg wrote:

It looks like there are 2 slot pairs in the first application award and 2 slot pairs in the second award for a potential total of 4 daily flights if I'm reading that right.

True, but that would assume WN could get all 4 which is unlikely if anyone else applies.

WN will bid for any and all slots at MEX.
Depending on the number of awards they receive this will most likely spell the end for FNT and GSP to free up aircraft for increased MEX service.
If WN is successful with grabbing JFK slots.
This would also probably see the elimination of ROC and DSM to free up JFK service with a minimum of 5 or 6 flights.
Flyguy

It's almost inconceivable that the DOT would give all four JFK slot pairs to WN. Even so, how would they operated 5-6 flights? Even if they had the slots, I doubt it would make any sense to start there. LGA has the better O&D and they already have a decent operation at EWR. And if they did start JFK, where would they fly that doesn't already have plenty of competition?

I do agree that they will try to get as many MEX slots as possible. Probably out of the first 14, they'll get 4-5.

A big question here is when will DL/AM announce new MEX routes and will that affect which airlines are interested and which proposed routes will be profitable?

msycajun wrote:

A big question here is when will DL/AM announce new MEX routes and will that affect which airlines are interested and which proposed routes will be profitable?

I doubt we will hear about any new routes for quite some time.

The JV immunity does not commence until the day phase-1 slots transfer agreements have been executed with recipient airlines and approved by the Mexican slot coordinators. Really only at that point can the airlines share route, financial and schedule data

Also with AM/DL are losing MEX slots to begin with, any new service might have to be at the expense of existing flights.

LAXintl wrote:

msycajun wrote:

A big question here is when will DL/AM announce new MEX routes and will that affect which airlines are interested and which proposed routes will be profitable?

The JV immunity does not commence until the day phase-1 slots transfer agreements have been executed with recipient airlines and approved by the Mexican slot coordinators. Really only at that point can the airlines share route, financial and schedule data

Also with AM/DL are losing MEX slots to begin with, any new service might have to be at the expense of existing flights.

Ah that makes sense. However I've always heard that AM had a ton of unused slots. If that is the case it seems they would want to put them to use lest they have to give up even more slots. I don't have it in front of me, but wasn't there also a stipulation that some hub-hub flights had to be reduced? Maybe it was the Mexican authority? I could be wrong on that.

Yes the poor utilization or slot squatting by AM was one of the arguments several airlines made during the process.

Certainly, AM will have to better utilize its remaining slots if it seeks to maintain its existing schedule.

Though I suspect some of the blame really goes to the Mexican authorities whom might had not been fully enforcing slot usage rules and let AM slide. Certainly there will be less room for such going forward.

LAXintl wrote:

Yes the poor utilization or slot squatting by AM was one of the arguments several airlines made during the process.

Certainly, AM will have to better utilize its remaining slots if it seeks to maintain its existing schedule.

Though I suspect some of the blame really goes to the Mexican authorities whom might had not been fully enforcing slot usage rules and let AM slide. Certainly there will be less room for such going forward.

Related(-ish) question: What happened to all the Mexicana slots after they went other? Is that where the slots for all the other WN, B6, Interjet, Volaris, etc flights came from?

BobPatterson wrote:

I can understand DOT telling them they must make divestments in order to receive regulatory approval of permission(s) being sought.

What I do not understand is why the slots to be handed off in Mexico are to be approved only by American authorities.

It's not complicated.

The DOT is not involved in the transfer of the slots, they are simply running a process to decide who DL and AM should be required to transfer those slots to in order to gain approval for their JV. Once the DOT has made their decision, DL and AM will transfer the slots through the usual system (whatever that is at MEX) to satisfy the DOT's conditions.

And yes, of course DL and AM also have to satisfy the conditions set down by the Mexican authorities as well. I'm not exactly sure what those conditions are but in all likelihood they will be less convoluted than the US side.

ty97 wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

Yes the poor utilization or slot squatting by AM was one of the arguments several airlines made during the process.

Certainly, AM will have to better utilize its remaining slots if it seeks to maintain its existing schedule.

Though I suspect some of the blame really goes to the Mexican authorities whom might had not been fully enforcing slot usage rules and let AM slide. Certainly there will be less room for such going forward.

Related(-ish) question: What happened to all the Mexicana slots after they went other? Is that where the slots for all the other WN, B6, Interjet, Volaris, etc flights came from?

the vast majority of MXA slots went to Interjet. someone correct me if im wrong.

As part of their JV agreement, DOT required DL and MX to divest 24 slots at MEX and JFK. They are now seeking proposals for these slots. Proposals are due by 1/23/17 and DOT is expected to make a final ruling by 5/17/17.

As is typical, DOT is examining connecting opportunities that the proposed route would offer as well as providing service to MEX from cities who don't currently have service.

https://airwaysmag.com/airports/us-dot-slot-assignment-mexico-city-new-york/

Any speculation on who will be bidding and what routes they might be looking to fly?

SEA-MEX for AS seems like a no-brainer to me. I'd also expect NK to put in for a slot or two -- perhaps from FLL. I'm really curious to see what WN does given how poorly their MEX flights have done so far.

Edit: Sorry for the duplicate. Mods please feel free to remove.

Even if they are crazy enough to bid for them, there is no way WN gets the JFK slots. Those slots seem destined for Interjet and Volaris, unless VX decides to put in an application.

For the MEX slots, I'd imagine AS will bid for SEA-MEX. That would be a new route, with lots of connecting opportunities (not to mention a nice little jab at DL). I could definitely see NK applying--likely for FLL. I could also envision B6 seeking BOS-MEX given their desire to grow in Boston. AM is the only operator on that route, plus they could certainly offer extensive connections in BOS.

WN will certainly be bidding for the MEX slots but they don't have a ton of good options for where to fly from. They currently have 3 flights at HOU with very low load factors. MDW and OAK seem like their best options-- all the others mentioned have a substantial amount of service on them.

Applications are due today. Lets see what proposals we get.

orangeguy wrote:

For the MEX slots, I'd imagine AS will bid for SEA-MEX. That would be a new route, with lots of connecting opportunities (not to mention a nice little jab at DL).

Yes, and after the JV is implemented Delta could encourage AM to run SEA-Mex with a 787, as they do to JFK.

Would love to see AS start SEA-MEX....AM did it many years ago but didn't have the multitude of connection opportunities that AS has.

MIflyer12 wrote:

orangeguy wrote:

For the MEX slots, I'd imagine AS will bid for SEA-MEX. That would be a new route, with lots of connecting opportunities (not to mention a nice little jab at DL).

Yes, and after the JV is implemented Delta could encourage AM to run SEA-Mex with a 787, as they do to JFK.

But they won't because MEX-SEA isn't in the same league as MEX-JFK

Where could one find these applications online?

Alaska:
2x daily LAX-MEX
1x daily SFO-MEX
1x daily SAN-MEX

JetBlue:
2x daily FLL-MEX
2x daily LGB-MEX
2x daily MCO-MEX

Southwest:
2x HOU-MEX (additional)
1x FLL-MEX
1x LAX-MEX

Applications coming in..

So far airlines seek

Alaska{/u]
LAX - MEX - 2x Daily
SAN - MEX - 1x Daily
SFO - MEX - 1x Daily

[u]JetBlue
FLL - MEX - 2x Daily
MCO - MEX - 2x Daily
LGB - MEX - 2x Daily (considering FIS at LGB is years away if at all - good luck)

Southwest
HOU - MEX - 2x Daily
FLL - MEX - 1x Daily
LAX - MEX - 1x Daily

So far nothing from the Mexican operators, nor request for the JFK slots.

Interesting that Alaska's proposal is a daily 739 from LAX and SFO - with the two routes scheduled to swap aircraft while turning at MEX in the afternoon - plus a second flight with a E175 for LAX and then also a E175 for SAN, with the same pattern of the E175s swapping between the routes while turning at MEX in the afternoon/evening.

B6 already serves MEX-MCO/FLL, would these be additional frequencies?

LAXintl wrote:

Applications coming in..

So far airlines seek

Alaska
LAX - MEX - 2x Daily
SAN - MEX - 1x Daily
SFO - MEX - 1x Daily

JetBlue
FLL - MEX - 2x Daily
MCO - MEX - 2x Daily
LGB - MEX - 2x Daily (considering FIS at LGB is years away if at all - good luck)

Southwest
HOU - MEX - 2x Daily
FLL - MEX - 1x Daily
LAX - MEX - 1x Daily

These all seem like slam dunk awards except perhaps for WN's HOU-MEX, which is likely near the bottom of the list given they already have three daily HOU-MEX flights. I agree with you on the sentiment regarding LGB-MEX -- B6 won't be awarded slots because they can't legally operate the service without the FIS being built & staffed first. I'm sort of baffled that they wouldn't have requested LAX-MEX (which I think they'd very likely receive) with a promise to move the flights over to LGB if & when the FIS were to come into being. I think AS will get SAN-MEX but I doubt the service will succeed financially on relatively high-cost equipment while competing with ample low-fare options between TIJ & MEX which don't suffer the burdens of transborder taxes & fees.

orangeguy wrote:

For the MEX slots, I'd imagine AS will bid for SEA-MEX. That would be a new route, with lots of connecting opportunities (not to mention a nice little jab at DL).

SEA-MEX would be far more a self-inflicted wound on the part of AS than a jab at DL. SEA is a horrible location for domestic connections to MEX and interline connections in the U.S. for foreign nationals between Mexico and Asia are a poor experience. The local market between SEA & MEX is small as well, and they wouldn't have access to the AM hub at MEX.

commavia wrote:

Alaska:
2x daily LAX-MEX
1x daily SFO-MEX
1x daily SAN-MEX

JetBlue:
2x daily FLL-MEX
2x daily LGB-MEX
2x daily MCO-MEX

Southwest:
2x HOU-MEX (additional)
1x FLL-MEX
1x LAX-MEX

Where do you find this information? Is it on regulations.gov? Thanks!

Didn't AS give their LAX-MEX slot to AA a couple years ago?

And why does WN want so many out of HOU?

Surprised to see WN apply for so much from HOU. In their analysis of DL/AM MEX market they listed potential routes DEN/PHX/Others - MEX. I suppose there is a round 2 for the next set.

B6 LGB-MEX good luck with that
AS I like their applications but why not just go straight for 737s on all the routes.