n729pa
Posts: 1111
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2011 6:16 pm

Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Sat Aug 05, 2017 9:18 am

A few months back i read a book written at the time of the discovery of the Southern Cloud, Australia's first major air disaster. The Southern Cloud was flying an Australian National Airways flight from Sydney to Melbourne in March 1931. In severe weather she went missing and despite all the searches done at the time including by co-owners Charles Kingsford Smith and Charles Ulm nothing was ever found. There were rumours and speculation, "eye witness" accounts who heard her flying over them here, there and everywhere. When the plane had failed to arrive at Essendon there was not immediate concern and it was thought they may landed somewhere else or near one of their refuelling points. A search was started after it was clear this was more than a simple weather delay.

The search last initially for three weeks but ultimately went on for some months (don't forget this is 86 years ago) and thousands of manhours but to no avail.

By chance a logger in October 1958 stumbled upon what was left of the wreckage on a wooded hillside in the snowy mountains in NSW, there ending the mystery of what had happened to the Southern Cloud 27 years earlier.

The legacy of the Cloud in Australia was that it brought about improvements in operating standards, meteorological services and the fitting of radio communication equipment to all aircraft in the intervening years.

There are a lot of similarities given the distance of time between the Cloud and MH370 and what ever the circumstances were of MH370s flight, it's legacy must be that additional ways of both tracking and finding a plane after its been lost must be found. Ways to prevent tampering with equipment, additional search beacons and increased longevity of recorder batteries (I don't mean 3 years but at least 2-3 months to give more of a chance) and like that.

Personally I don't believe there is very much if anything to find. That of course depends on how it all ended. But in any case given what has been found externally and internally I think it's fair to say it's fairly well broken up. But still not a lot of wreckage has turned up yet I don't think. Maybe one day something will turn up, that will be like the logger in 1958 stumbling upon the remains, and this new find will provide some more information that up to now has been speculative.
 
boacvc10
Posts: 500
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:31 pm

Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Sat Aug 05, 2017 12:15 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
boacvc10 wrote:
I would like to study the nature by which they confirmed the signals are in fact coming from that quadrant that they think they did.


Well the satellite ping analysis is all based on timing (like GPS) and nothing to do with directionality.


Ah. I defer to experts, but then there are physical laws (behaviors that are undisputed) and the effects I described are not limited to any particular frequency. Of course we know light is affected by space-time/gravity, so is it any wonder the paths an RF (low frequency electromagnetic wave) carrier travels can be effected by the environment it travels through, and does not not necessarily imply the shortest path? Once the waves deviate from the shortest path, the timing is bound to vary to/from geo orbit at every point- and remember the spacecraft is moving too.Anyway, I suggest a technical description of the effects I describe http://www.radio-electronics.com/info/propagation/em_waves/electromagnetic-reflection-refraction-diffraction.php
Up, up and Away!
 
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SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1759
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Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:03 am

boacvc10 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
boacvc10 wrote:
I would like to study the nature by which they confirmed the signals are in fact coming from that quadrant that they think they did.


Well the satellite ping analysis is all based on timing (like GPS) and nothing to do with directionality.


Ah. I defer to experts, but then there are physical laws (behaviors that are undisputed) and the effects I described are not limited to any particular frequency. Of course we know light is affected by space-time/gravity, so is it any wonder the paths an RF (low frequency electromagnetic wave) carrier travels can be effected by the environment it travels through, and does not not necessarily imply the shortest path? Once the waves deviate from the shortest path, the timing is bound to vary to/from geo orbit at every point- and remember the spacecraft is moving too.Anyway, I suggest a technical description of the effects I describe http://www.radio-electronics.com/info/propagation/em_waves/electromagnetic-reflection-refraction-diffraction.php


This is all true, but in this case:

1) the signals were more or less straight up and down through the atmosphere - so those effects will be very limited (they get more pronounced with the angle of incidence to atmospheric layers)

2) the level of detail that the analysis went into wrt. "burst frequency offset" etc. (even down to latency effects generated by the systems themselves) means that they had to have considered any atmospheric effects on those measured frequencies (since minute changes in these were used to estimate the rate and direction of movement of the aircraft whenever a ping was captured)

3) the basic "ping rings" are based simply on time for the round trip of the signal to geostationary orbit and back, so even if the limited effects in 1) were not compensated for the accuracy will still be reasonable.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Tugger
Posts: 9481
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Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:56 pm

Some new information seems to be available in the search:
https://www.atsb.gov.au/newsroom/news-i ... e-imagery/
Images are from the French PLEIADES 1A satellite that had not been reviewed (to my understanding) have shown what appear to be likely man made objects in the ocean near but no in the search area. And drift studies match with a potential new region to search just NW of the earlier search area.

The quote at the end of this CNN article I think sums it up:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/16/asia/mh37 ... index.html
According to Griffin, the new information would indicate the plane could be located at 35.6 degrees latitude, 92.8 degrees longitude, consistent with their previous suggested area.
"We've already chosen an area where we think the plane was likely to have crashed, the proposed new search area" Griffin told CNN.
"So let's make a prediction, if you're right, and that's where the plane crashed, if we had a close look at the ocean ... and saw no strange images we'd think 'Oh gee we're wrong' (but) indeed we looked at the images and saw all these strange objects,"said Griffin.
"It's not conclusive but it's the best you could hope for."
The official search effort would be continued if "credible" new evidence was found, Australia's transport minister Darren Chester said in January.


Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
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SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1759
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Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:21 pm

Thanks for the update. So there's still hope of finding something quite soon...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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BaconButty
Posts: 811
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:16 pm

Tugger wrote:

Images are from the French PLEIADES 1A satellite that had not been reviewed (to my understanding) have shown what appear to be likely man made objects in the ocean near but no in the search area.

Hi Tugg,

I was reading the reports on the ATSB website today. What I think happened is the imagery was supplied during the initial search for surface debris in March 2014, which as I'm sure you know covered a vast area. They went back to it in March this year and asked Geoscience Australia to do a more thorough examination of just the areas that were consistent with the new search area defined by the first principles review late last year iirc. Then having found these clusters of debris, CSIRO did some more drift analysis to further refine the search area. Assuming this floating debris is parts of MH370 of course. I wonder how that affects the negotiations with Ocean Infinity . . .
Down with that sort of thing!
 
buzzard302
Posts: 159
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:06 pm

Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:04 pm

So awesome to see some hope of further evidence. I really wish this one will be solved some day. The science and forensics behind this are certainly a first, and will lead to even better technology in the future.
 
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N14AZ
Posts: 3841
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:15 am

aero.de posted a picture, most probably abstracted from one of the reports:

Image

I am not sure what you can see on this picture. Are the markers next to the objects? Or on top of it (most probably not).
 
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SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1759
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:31 pm

Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:34 am

That's quite a pointless one to take, in my opinion. It's not even the full image.

This is (part of) one of the four images with (some of) the potential debris highlighted. If you go to the actual report, there are much more detailed close-ups of all the likely man-made objects found.

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5773373/m ... report.pdf

One thing I didn't see mentioned is why only those four strangely-spaced images were selected/provided. I'm guessing that those were the only ones taken in that area which the automated systems flagged up - but then it's strange that they form a spaced-out square...

The drift report discusses the implication of finding debris there and where that would likely place the wreckage (if that's where it came from):

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5773371/m ... t-iiil.pdf
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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N14AZ
Posts: 3841
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: MH370 Search Officially Suspended

Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:55 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
If you go to the actual report, there are much more detailed close-ups of all the likely man-made objects found.

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5773373/m ... report.pdf

Wow, lots of objects.

....

Okay, someone has to say it: the Chinese must have been busy planting all of these objects in the middle of the Pacific ocean (usually, we add a smiley to make sure that everybody knows it's just ironic. But in case of fatal aircraft crashes I don't like using smileys...anyhow, if you sometimes check the Non-Aviation-forum you will understand it)

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