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tjerome
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:02 am

Lots of unusual visitors on June 19th - KLM 777, IB A346, Kuwait 77W, couple of AZ flights. The airport was chaotic the whole afternoon and was worse than a snowstorm. Runway closure made things worse.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:18 am

tjerome wrote:
Lots of unusual visitors on June 19th - KLM 777, IB A346, Kuwait 77W, couple of AZ flights. The airport was chaotic the whole afternoon and was worse than a snowstorm. Runway closure made things worse.


Yeah someone yesterday posted quite the list, even a couple of BOS directed flights returned to base as well. Shame some of these are only diverts and not permanents. While i know there isn't the room in the market, but I for one would love to see the KLM 777 here in BOS. But it's DL's domain so won't happen sadly.

Can't wait to get a glimpse of the SAS 330 when it appears in late August.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
FGITD
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:31 am

Was utter chaos out there last night. Typically this was the type of event where diverted aircraft would be lining up on 15R. Of course that's no good when that's also the only runway in use...

Alongside the KL 772 was an LH 748. Lucky for them, both arrived early enough to gas and go before the real chaos began.
 
LH423
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:31 am

The LH 748 and KL 777 were IAD bound, which got hit before NYC. If they didn't have enough fun already after departing they had to fly 2/3rd the way to Montréal then west to Saratoga before heading south to get a clean path through storm front.

LH423
« On ne voit bien qu'avec le cœur. L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux » Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
 
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mikegigs
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:36 pm

tomaheath wrote:
I noticed Penair moved there ticketing counter down the hall in B just AA shuttle left down at the end is that where WN will be?


I believe that WN will be using the pmAA gates so I would think they would use the pmAA ticket counters in B-North as well. Where did Penair move to? The old NK counters? That's closer to the main TSA checkpoint (whgich is closer to their gates than the Shuttle checkpoint). I haven't been to Logan in so long!
Airports: BOS, JAX, JFK, EWR, LGA, CVG, ATL, CLT, DCA, IAD, STT, PVD, ALB, MCO
Aircraft: 733, 735, 73G, 738, 752, 717, A319, A320, MD-88, E190, E175, E145, CRJ-200, CRJ-700, Q400
Airlines: B6, CO, DL, US, NW, WN, DH
...a good start but a long way to go!
 
iyerhari
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:06 pm

Started my travels from BOS-CMH starting this week using DL. Sadly no status with DL as all my lifetime million miles are accrued on US/AA :( Went to Terminal A after eons - it is a nice terminal I must say. TSA Pre was a breezer and honestly the checkpoints are much more airy than Terminal B US side. Hopefully Massport Terminal B revamp may create some nicer experiences. BOS-CMH flights were completely sold out and the tickets ain't cheap - they cost a decent money and I have to pay for seats else I am sure to be bumped out in an oversold situation. Sometimes feel lack of not having a true hub in BOS is difficult to maintain a status with a single airline - one can take connections but too time consuming especially if one is traveling every single week. No wonder, folks living in ATL, ORD, DFW, CLT can afford to have allegiance with a single carrier. Oh, missed adding taxi/Uber drop-offs and pickups are also so easy at A than B.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:58 pm

While we wait for VS4ever's Monthly report, here are the top 15 international markets for passengers leaving to USA from BOS and going to the airports below. Also list pax count and YOY change

1) BOS-LHR, 791190, -.87%
2) BOS-YYZ, 449964, 42.09% (Thanks WS!!)
3) BOS-DUB, 347279, 3.07%
4) BOS-DXB, 346764, 48.64% (Will be lower for 2017)
5) BOS-CDG, 344087, -6.59%
6) BOS-KEF, 334483, 23.37%
7) BOS-FRA, 273905, -4.09%
8) BOS-AMS, 255952, 2.91%
9) BOS-YTZ, 196029, 14.17%
10) BOS-ZRH, 179446, 34.87%
11) BOS-MUC, 151872, -0.17%
12) BOS-IST, 140142, -1.79% (Surprisingly not a big drop with the frequency cut for Winter)
13) BOS-SNN, 130446, 3.95%
14) BOS-PEK, 129695, 38.47% (Q4 frequency increase to daily)
15) BOS-AUA, 121261, 13.09%

I will predict BOS-LIS (had 100K between the 2 airlines) and BOS-HKG (112K with 4-5 weekly) crack top 15 in 2017 and an obvious drop in the lower top ten for DXB.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:04 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
While we wait for VS4ever's Monthly report, here are the top 15 international markets for passengers leaving to USA from BOS and going to the airports below. Also list pax count and YOY change

1) BOS-LHR, 791190, -.87%
2) BOS-YYZ, 449964, 42.09% (Thanks WS!!)
3) BOS-DUB, 347279, 3.07%
4) BOS-DXB, 346764, 48.64% (Will be lower for 2017)
5) BOS-CDG, 344087, -6.59%
6) BOS-KEF, 334483, 23.37%
7) BOS-FRA, 273905, -4.09%
8) BOS-AMS, 255952, 2.91%
9) BOS-YTZ, 196029, 14.17%
10) BOS-ZRH, 179446, 34.87%
11) BOS-MUC, 151872, -0.17%
12) BOS-IST, 140142, -1.79% (Surprisingly not a big drop with the frequency cut for Winter)
13) BOS-SNN, 130446, 3.95%
14) BOS-PEK, 129695, 38.47% (Q4 frequency increase to daily)
15) BOS-AUA, 121261, 13.09%

I will predict BOS-LIS (had 100K between the 2 airlines) and BOS-HKG (112K with 4-5 weekly) crack top 15 in 2017 and an obvious drop in the lower top ten for DXB.


Hey, sorry i haven't put the new numbers up, it's quarter end at work and has been completely nuts. My aim is to do the numbers later today to post. I am also working on revamping the website info, because now we are at the end of 16. I have 3 years of comparatives to use and need to set up for 2017. Watch for the first couple being posted soon. Likely Middle East and Asia with Central America close behind as those 3 are the easiest to make sure my new format works due to the limited number of routes.

Those numbers look good, it still amazes me that 130K people fly back and forth to SNN each year, but hey not complaining. I would also suggest that DOH will crack that list. 110K but only 9 months worth of data, unless there has been a massive drop in their numbers. 3 months worth will add another 45K roughly to that number over last year. I suspect AUA, IST and SNN will drop out as replacements.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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tlecam
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:08 pm

I did the BOS-CMH flights for years and I still do them occasionally. You're right about fares and crowds. When I first started flying the route, they were all ERJ135/145. :-|
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:18 am

Doing things a little differently this month, as this i December, I have pulled full year capacity numbers. So you can see how a route is doing overall.
Asia
BOS-HKG - 90.2%
BOS-NRT - 80.5%
BOS-PEK - 82.5%
BOS-PVG - 82.8%

Caribbean
BOS-AUA - 85.7%
BOS-BDA (AA) - 75.8%
BOS-BDA (B6) - 74.1%
BOS-BDA (DL) - 69.6%
BOS-BGI - 82.3%
BOS-FDF - 62.2%
BOS-GCM - 84.9%
BOS-MBJ (AA) - 88.4%
BOS-MBJ (B6) - 89.4%
BOS-MBJ (DL) - 57.2%
BOS-NAS - 78.3%
BOS-PLS - (AA) 86.0%
BOS-PLS - (B6) 84.6%
BOS-PLS - (DL) 75.6%
BOS-POP - 84.7%
BOS-PTP - 62.9%
BOS-PUJ (AA) - 81.9%
BOS-PUJ (B6) - 87.6%
BOS-PUJ (DL) - 58.0%
BOS-SDQ - 86.2%
BOS-SJU - 84.3%
BOS-STI - 81.7%
BOS-STT - 77.2%
BOS-SXM - 81.6%
BOS-UVF - 80.3%

Canada
BOS-YHZ (QK) - 72.8%
BOS-YHZ (WS) - 70.6%
BOS-YOW - 54.2%
BOS-YTZ - 68.4%
BOS-YUL - 64.0%
BOS-YYZ (AC) - 78.7%
BOS-YYZ (RS) - 75.3%
BOS-YYZ (WS) - 65.8%

Central America
BOS-CUN (AA) - 88.7%
BOS-CUN (B6) - 84.0%
BOS-CUN (DL) - 84.3%
BOS-MEX - 72.5%
BOS-PTY - 82.8%

Europe
BOS-AMS - 79.3%
BOS-CDG (AA) - 56.6%
BOS-CDG (AF) - 77.2%
BOS-CDG (DL) - 74.7%
BOS-CGN - 62.3% (route terminated)
BOS-CPH (DY) - 84.2%
BOS-CPH (SK) - 73.2%
BOS-DUB - 84.9%
BOS-FCO - 78.2%
BOS-FRA - 73.1%
BOS-KEF (FI) - 85.7%
BOS-KEF (WW) - 83.6%
BOS-LGW - 90.5%
BOS-LHR (BA) - 78.5%
BOS-LHR (DL) - 58.0%
BOS-LHR (VS) - 71.0%
BOS-LIS (S4) - 69.3%
BOS-LIS (TP) - 85.6%
BOS-MAD - 71.7%
BOS-MUC - 77.7%
BOS-SNN (EI) - 77.4%
BOS-TER - 74.5%
BOS-ZRH - 75.9%

Middle East
BOS-DOH - 76.0%
BOS-DXB - 71.4%
BOS-IST - 73.5%
BOS-TLV - 76.1%

ORH-FLL - 82.7%
ORH-MCO - 80.0%

Enjoy...
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
B752OS
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:29 am

These numbers are for the entire year of 2016? So for example, for 2016 BOS-HKG had an average load factor of 90.2%?
 
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chrisnh
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:43 am

DXB-->Considering this on a one-way basis (either inbound or outbound) 2x 77W's provided a total of 708 seats daily. 71% means 502 people. Now they're probably around 90% of 354 available seats, or about 318 seats occupied. That's a drop of around 40%, and certainly not a result of a 'laptop ban.' That second daily flight was a silly idea to begin with and in my view will never return.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:22 am

B752OS wrote:
These numbers are for the entire year of 2016? So for example, for 2016 BOS-HKG had an average load factor of 90.2%?


Correct and this is why CX finally went daily and i hope hope hope that DY can find the extra frequencies to get LGW to daily too.


chrisnh wrote:
DXB-->Considering this on a one-way basis (either inbound or outbound) 2x 77W's provided a total of 708 seats daily. 71% means 502 people. Now they're probably around 90% of 354 available seats, or about 318 seats occupied. That's a drop of around 40%, and certainly not a result of a 'laptop ban.' That second daily flight was a silly idea to begin with and in my view will never return.


I agree with your snyopsis up to a point. one of two things will likely happen now. 1 is the 77W will be pushed up to a daily 388 thus clawing back some of the lost seats. While 708 is too many you make your own point that they were getting over 500 and that would fit in the sweetspot for a daily 388. 2. While i agree in the short term the 2nd daily is unlikely to return, saying never is a strong term. The 2nd daily had got itself up to 70% because it was a morning connector for B6, while all this geo polticial crap is going on I see the return not being on the cards anytime soon, but never? not so sure about that.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
JoePatroni
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:00 am

United has one of their brand new 777-300ERs here tonight (24Jun). It came in as UA242 SFO-BOS and will overnight at a spot in the North Cargo area. Then operate tomorrow (25Jun) as UA207 BOS-SFO.
Oh Stewardess, I speak Jive.
 
B752OS
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 4:09 am

How do you read the loads on BOS-FRA? FRA is one of the largest hubs in Europe and the load factor to FRA is lower than the other major hubs of LHR, CDG and AMS.
 
33lspotter
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:50 am

B752OS wrote:
How do you read the loads on BOS-FRA? FRA is one of the largest hubs in Europe and the load factor to FRA is lower than the other major hubs of LHR, CDG and AMS.


Wild guesses:

- LHR – BOS-LHR, like BOS-FRA, has been affected by ME carriers like QR and EK as well as Far East carriers like HU and CX coming to BOS, but I have to believe that the O+D traffic is what keeps numbers steady. BA took over the route for OneWorld when AA pulled out in 2013, but DL and VS are both on the route as well (DL's poor load factors are offset by high premium yields). There is an extensive amount of business and premium class travel between Boston and London.
- BOS-CDG – Honestly not sure about this one. SkyTeam connections since both BOS and CDG are alliance hubs?
- BOS-AMS – The largest a/c on BOS-AMS is the DL A333 (293 seats). The largest a/c on BOS-FRA is the LH 748 (364 seats). Even though BOS-FRA has more passengers than BOS-AMS, the larger a/c likely makes a difference in terms of load factors.
- BOS-FRA – In addition to the factors listed in the above bullet: FRA is a large hub, but it is Star, and BOS doesn't have any significant Star feed going on. Sure, LH has a codeshare partnership with B6, but I am not sure that this feeds much into BOS-FRA. Would be curious to know what the O+D numbers on FRA's end are like on this route, I suspect they are weaker than LHR, CDG, or AMS.

Additionally, keep in mind that this is the first summer IIRC that LH is sending the A333 to BOS alongside the 748 rather than the 744 (which wouldn't be reflected in these numbers since they are '16 numbers). All things equal, I suspect load factors will go up on BOS-FRA because of the reduced capacity.
 
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tlecam
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:32 am

Those Asian LF's do indicate that more capacity would be welcome. I know that LF isn't profit but it does make me curious about ICN.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
aaflyer777
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:34 pm

BOS-BDA (AA) - 75.8%
Is AA flying this nonstop now?
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:46 pm

aaflyer777 wrote:
BOS-BDA (AA) - 75.8%
Is AA flying this nonstop now?


My bad on that one, should not have picked it up. Looks like a couple of one offs on a 763 and 320 I am guessing possible diverts? They are definitely not flying it. Although to be clear the report I use is a segment report so if it's on there it's the route that was flown either out of or to BOS
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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N717TW
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:50 pm

tjerome wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
tlecam wrote:
Delta announced the SFO flights yesterday:

http://news.delta.com/delta-launches-bo ... -amenities


I've been curious about the gate usage - the morning flight should be easier to accomodate and used A17 this morning.

The late afternoon (4:00) flight also used Gate A17. I suspect that Delta would actually like this flight to leave around 6PM, but that they don't currently have the gate space at the time to run a 757 out of Logan. A13,14, 16 and 17 are pretty well blocked off after 4PM for the LHR/AMS/CDG/DUB flights. IRROPs will be...interesting.


IRROPs will definitely be interesting. I find it even more interesting that today's 4pm BOS-SFO is using A3, which is a pretty tight area. I don't think I've seen a 757 there. I would have thought having a 757 there now would have knocked out a gate or two next to it, and those gates on the concourse are really busy at 4pm. Must be a tight squeeze and quite a well practiced dance to get all those aircraft to fit at the gates just right.


A3 can handle a 757 without blocking another gate. Only challenge with A3 is the space near the front of the aircraft and the building. Catering can't even get to the front of the aircraft, they only cater it from the back and walk the carts up the aisle. As far as tight spaces go trying to park a mainline plane at A1 or A11 is tight, and there isn't enough space in between A5 and A6 to get equipment, catering trucks in when there are planes at both 5 and 6.

chrisnh wrote:
Since the 757s being used by DL SFO-BOS are a special configuration, will they just go back and forth between those cities? In other words, a plane going to SFO will always be one that came from there?


Since BOS-SFO started DL has it timed where the same aircraft leaves SFO in the morning and flies SFO-BOS-DUB-BOS-SFO where BOS-SFO is the 4pm departure. Redeye turns the morning BOS-SFO. Took a look at N711ZX and N717TW and it works out that morning BOS-SFO can turn the morning SFO-BOS to then turn BOS-DUB. Eventually they will rotate those aircraft through SFO to get back to JFK.

DL had them on ATL-BOS on the interim for at least May 25-June 8 between when the DUB and SFO routes started respectively. Today all equipment ATL-BOS is a 321.


In theory there are two aircraft doing BOS-SFO and BOS-DUB and its sorta beautiful how they can work those six flights in two aircraft if you look at the schedules for those flights. But in reality they will swap out with the other former TWA 757s at SFO. For all intents and purposes, the J configured 757s are based at JFK right now.

If LAX-BOS goes premium J, then that might change. And in a total pipe dream, if LAX-BOS goes premium J, then it might make sense to reopen a 756 pilot base at BOS as DL would have at least 8 longer departures a day on a 757 and 763.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:59 pm

VS4ever wrote:
B752OS wrote:
These numbers are for the entire year of 2016? So for example, for 2016 BOS-HKG had an average load factor of 90.2%?


Correct and this is why CX finally went daily and i hope hope hope that DY can find the extra frequencies to get LGW to daily too.


chrisnh wrote:
DXB-->Considering this on a one-way basis (either inbound or outbound) 2x 77W's provided a total of 708 seats daily. 71% means 502 people. Now they're probably around 90% of 354 available seats, or about 318 seats occupied. That's a drop of around 40%, and certainly not a result of a 'laptop ban.' That second daily flight was a silly idea to begin with and in my view will never return.


I agree with your snyopsis up to a point. one of two things will likely happen now. 1 is the 77W will be pushed up to a daily 388 thus clawing back some of the lost seats. While 708 is too many you make your own point that they were getting over 500 and that would fit in the sweetspot for a daily 388. 2. While i agree in the short term the 2nd daily is unlikely to return, saying never is a strong term. The 2nd daily had got itself up to 70% because it was a morning connector for B6, while all this geo polticial crap is going on I see the return not being on the cards anytime soon, but never? not so sure about that.


Yesterday and also today EK has the 266-seat 777-200LR instead of the 354-seat 777-300ER doing the Boston run. I agree with you that the A388 on a single daily rotation fits the need based solely on my math but I also recognize that other factors are at play (cargo capabilities being one of them). But as we all know, the gate infrastructure isn't an impediment any longer to them making that change.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:00 pm

N717TW wrote:
tjerome wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

IRROPs will definitely be interesting. I find it even more interesting that today's 4pm BOS-SFO is using A3, which is a pretty tight area. I don't think I've seen a 757 there. I would have thought having a 757 there now would have knocked out a gate or two next to it, and those gates on the concourse are really busy at 4pm. Must be a tight squeeze and quite a well practiced dance to get all those aircraft to fit at the gates just right.


A3 can handle a 757 without blocking another gate. Only challenge with A3 is the space near the front of the aircraft and the building. Catering can't even get to the front of the aircraft, they only cater it from the back and walk the carts up the aisle. As far as tight spaces go trying to park a mainline plane at A1 or A11 is tight, and there isn't enough space in between A5 and A6 to get equipment, catering trucks in when there are planes at both 5 and 6.

chrisnh wrote:
Since the 757s being used by DL SFO-BOS are a special configuration, will they just go back and forth between those cities? In other words, a plane going to SFO will always be one that came from there?


Since BOS-SFO started DL has it timed where the same aircraft leaves SFO in the morning and flies SFO-BOS-DUB-BOS-SFO where BOS-SFO is the 4pm departure. Redeye turns the morning BOS-SFO. Took a look at N711ZX and N717TW and it works out that morning BOS-SFO can turn the morning SFO-BOS to then turn BOS-DUB. Eventually they will rotate those aircraft through SFO to get back to JFK.

DL had them on ATL-BOS on the interim for at least May 25-June 8 between when the DUB and SFO routes started respectively. Today all equipment ATL-BOS is a 321.


In theory there are two aircraft doing BOS-SFO and BOS-DUB and its sorta beautiful how they can work those six flights in two aircraft if you look at the schedules for those flights. But in reality they will swap out with the other former TWA 757s at SFO. For all intents and purposes, the J configured 757s are based at JFK right now.

If LAX-BOS goes premium J, then that might change. And in a total pipe dream, if LAX-BOS goes premium J, then it might make sense to reopen a 756 pilot base at BOS as DL would have at least 8 longer departures a day on a 757 and 763.


I do wonder between AA, DL, UA & AS/VX who will be the first to move to flat bed J. No way only B6 will offer it on the route. The BOS area has a decent sized movie industry presence on top of other business. Heck, AA flys BOS-LAX 5x daily now I think. They're obviously gunning for the business crowd and those 737's and A321 domestic config pale in comparison to B6's Mint A321's.
 
tphuang
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:18 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
N717TW wrote:
tjerome wrote:

A3 can handle a 757 without blocking another gate. Only challenge with A3 is the space near the front of the aircraft and the building. Catering can't even get to the front of the aircraft, they only cater it from the back and walk the carts up the aisle. As far as tight spaces go trying to park a mainline plane at A1 or A11 is tight, and there isn't enough space in between A5 and A6 to get equipment, catering trucks in when there are planes at both 5 and 6.



Since BOS-SFO started DL has it timed where the same aircraft leaves SFO in the morning and flies SFO-BOS-DUB-BOS-SFO where BOS-SFO is the 4pm departure. Redeye turns the morning BOS-SFO. Took a look at N711ZX and N717TW and it works out that morning BOS-SFO can turn the morning SFO-BOS to then turn BOS-DUB. Eventually they will rotate those aircraft through SFO to get back to JFK.

DL had them on ATL-BOS on the interim for at least May 25-June 8 between when the DUB and SFO routes started respectively. Today all equipment ATL-BOS is a 321.


In theory there are two aircraft doing BOS-SFO and BOS-DUB and its sorta beautiful how they can work those six flights in two aircraft if you look at the schedules for those flights. But in reality they will swap out with the other former TWA 757s at SFO. For all intents and purposes, the J configured 757s are based at JFK right now.

If LAX-BOS goes premium J, then that might change. And in a total pipe dream, if LAX-BOS goes premium J, then it might make sense to reopen a 756 pilot base at BOS as DL would have at least 8 longer departures a day on a 757 and 763.


I do wonder between AA, DL, UA & AS/VX who will be the first to move to flat bed J. No way only B6 will offer it on the route. The BOS area has a decent sized movie industry presence on top of other business. Heck, AA flys BOS-LAX 5x daily now I think. They're obviously gunning for the business crowd and those 737's and A321 domestic config pale in comparison to B6's Mint A321's.


Or BOS-SFO already has too many lie flat competition and BOS-LAX will remain the way it is. Have you seen the price DL is selling their J seats and what kind of load factor the morning flight is getting? VX looks like it's selling less than half of the J seats. From the coming Wednesday to Friday, J is selling at $699 when Y is selling at $502. UA dumped serious amount of premium J when DL entered and it's meant to kick DL and/or AS/VX out.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:24 pm

VS4ever wrote:

chrisnh wrote:
DXB-->Considering this on a one-way basis (either inbound or outbound) 2x 77W's provided a total of 708 seats daily. 71% means 502 people. Now they're probably around 90% of 354 available seats, or about 318 seats occupied. That's a drop of around 40%, and certainly not a result of a 'laptop ban.' That second daily flight was a silly idea to begin with and in my view will never return.


I agree with your snyopsis up to a point. one of two things will likely happen now. 1 is the 77W will be pushed up to a daily 388 thus clawing back some of the lost seats. While 708 is too many you make your own point that they were getting over 500 and that would fit in the sweetspot for a daily 388. 2. While i agree in the short term the 2nd daily is unlikely to return, saying never is a strong term. The 2nd daily had got itself up to 70% because it was a morning connector for B6, while all this geo polticial crap is going on I see the return not being on the cards anytime soon, but never? not so sure about that.



Reasons for the second frequency:

- EK's stated strategy was to use SEA/BOS/JFK as partner feed (AS+B6) stations
- Hit another hub bank in DXB - some destinations just do not work with the single frequency without a long layover. Its an economies of scale situation - EK may have received a lot more traffic because they offer a lot more. BOS-DXB-CGK involves a long layover outbound with the single frequency. Side note: QR seems to have better connections to/from the bank BOS-DOH-BOS feeds.

Problems of the second frequency
- Did it have to be daily? why not add it on peak days 3-4 times a week (367 or 2467 would probably be ideal)
- Did it have to be year-round? EK wisely dabbled in this by cutting for October and half of November
- Did it have to be double 77W - that's a fleet issue on EK's end - costs to operate 77W are probably lower than 77L
- EK starting MCO and FLL - probably two of the biggest feeders for BOS/JFK. DXB-MCO has already gone back to daily from the frequency cut.
- QR entering - Something SEA did not have to contend with.

33lspotter wrote:
B752OS wrote:
How do you read the loads on BOS-FRA? FRA is one of the largest hubs in Europe and the load factor to FRA is lower than the other major hubs of LHR, CDG and AMS.


Wild guesses:
- BOS-FRA – In addition to the factors listed in the above bullet: FRA is a large hub, but it is Star, and BOS doesn't have any significant Star feed going on. Sure, LH has a codeshare partnership with B6, but I am not sure that this feeds much into BOS-FRA. Would be curious to know what the O+D numbers on FRA's end are like on this route, I suspect they are weaker than LHR, CDG, or AMS.

Additionally, keep in mind that this is the first summer IIRC that LH is sending the A333 to BOS alongside the 748 rather than the 744 (which wouldn't be reflected in these numbers since they are '16 numbers). All things equal, I suspect load factors will go up on BOS-FRA because of the reduced capacity.


CDG may have dipped due to Paris attack in November 2015

In europe - top O+D to/from BOS: LHR CDG DUB and now (due to WW) KEF are the top tier (200 PDEW +). AMS FRA FCO ZRH MAD are the next tier (100-200 PDEW). PDL SNN LIS and MUC may be in or close to that tier as well. All fluctuate seasonally of course.

Also I think KEF would have inflated O+D since a lot of people are self-connecting in BOS to WW. Lots of people asking questions about this on travel forums.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:50 pm

Say what you want about the A380, but the BA version just flew over my house and it's magnificent. Sadly I was in the car so no pic
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
N717TW wrote:

In theory there are two aircraft doing BOS-SFO and BOS-DUB and its sorta beautiful how they can work those six flights in two aircraft if you look at the schedules for those flights. But in reality they will swap out with the other former TWA 757s at SFO. For all intents and purposes, the J configured 757s are based at JFK right now.

If LAX-BOS goes premium J, then that might change. And in a total pipe dream, if LAX-BOS goes premium J, then it might make sense to reopen a 756 pilot base at BOS as DL would have at least 8 longer departures a day on a 757 and 763.


I do wonder between AA, DL, UA & AS/VX who will be the first to move to flat bed J. No way only B6 will offer it on the route. The BOS area has a decent sized movie industry presence on top of other business. Heck, AA flys BOS-LAX 5x daily now I think. They're obviously gunning for the business crowd and those 737's and A321 domestic config pale in comparison to B6's Mint A321's.


Or BOS-SFO already has too many lie flat competition and BOS-LAX will remain the way it is. Have you seen the price DL is selling their J seats and what kind of load factor the morning flight is getting? VX looks like it's selling less than half of the J seats. From the coming Wednesday to Friday, J is selling at $699 when Y is selling at $502. UA dumped serious amount of premium J when DL entered and it's meant to kick DL and/or AS/VX out.


Loads look pretty good to me. Only 3 J seats left on the 7am DL BOS-SFO this Wednesday out of 16. At $700 one way and $500 coach is that terrible? I don't think so. Comparatively DL JFK-SFO 7am on Wednesday is $300 coach and $1600 in J with 5 seats left. If DL is making $200 more per coach seat out of BOS and it's currently 85% booked than I'd guess it's not hurting.

Somebody will come in with J flat beds BOS-LAX to go against B6.
 
LH423
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:44 pm

B752OS wrote:
How do you read the loads on BOS-FRA? FRA is one of the largest hubs in Europe and the load factor to FRA is lower than the other major hubs of LHR, CDG and AMS.


Because of the economic synergies between the two cities, Lufthansa will always enjoy a healthy load factor in the front. That's the reason you continue to see two flights during the summer both using the two non-A380 types based in FRA that offer First Class and the 748i during the winter, when loads suggest that smaller aircraft could be used. I think LH, being more reliant on transfers than AF or BA, have found themselves more exposed to the arrival of EK, TK and QR in Boston than the others, especially when you consider that Lufthansa's strengths over its Western European competitors have been to South Asia (BA excepted, though LH has always been as strong if not stronger to India than BA out of Boston) and Eastern Europe, the two markets that the Gulf carriers and Turkish excel at, respectively. The fact that they are still sending aircraft with F in them is a sign that the yields on the FRA flight are stable and probably (more than) compensating for the open seats in the back. When you see the seasonal flight dropped and/or the equipment drop down to a 343, then you might have cause to worry about its health.

These market forces are also what's likely behind the sub-80 loads for the AMS route.

I think it's time for AA to pull the plug on the CDG flight. Some of these numbers we're seeing are lower than we might expect but when you consider that's an average of the whole year, they're not that bad. But when AA is barely filling more than half of a 757 from May to September/early October, that's a sign that they're no longer relevant players in the market. As nice as it is to still have that link back to the days when AA flew 777s to LHR, 767s to LAX, A300s to SJU, used the Earhart building to house the bulk of its Eagle network and came oh so close to starting the NRT flight, I can't see why they continue with this one. I bet, unless last year was a one-off bad year or they are consistently filling the J cabin, this summer or next will probably be the last for AA146/147.

LH423
« On ne voit bien qu'avec le cœur. L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux » Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
 
tphuang
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:38 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
tphuang wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

I do wonder between AA, DL, UA & AS/VX who will be the first to move to flat bed J. No way only B6 will offer it on the route. The BOS area has a decent sized movie industry presence on top of other business. Heck, AA flys BOS-LAX 5x daily now I think. They're obviously gunning for the business crowd and those 737's and A321 domestic config pale in comparison to B6's Mint A321's.


Or BOS-SFO already has too many lie flat competition and BOS-LAX will remain the way it is. Have you seen the price DL is selling their J seats and what kind of load factor the morning flight is getting? VX looks like it's selling less than half of the J seats. From the coming Wednesday to Friday, J is selling at $699 when Y is selling at $502. UA dumped serious amount of premium J when DL entered and it's meant to kick DL and/or AS/VX out.


Loads look pretty good to me. Only 3 J seats left on the 7am DL BOS-SFO this Wednesday out of 16. At $700 one way and $500 coach is that terrible? I don't think so. Comparatively DL JFK-SFO 7am on Wednesday is $300 coach and $1600 in J with 5 seats left. If DL is making $200 more per coach seat out of BOS and it's currently 85% booked than I'd guess it's not hurting.

Somebody will come in with J flat beds BOS-LAX to go against B6.


Are you trolling me?

The comparison here is over premium J, not Y seat, since we are talking about lie flats. From premium J pricing, they are doing terribly. When you are selling flat bed seat at 40% more than Y seat, when they should be going for 4 to 5 times, that's a huge problem. We are 3 days away and right in front of July 4th weekend, those lie flats can still only sell for $699. Generally speaking, DL is pricing all their Js more than a week out at $599 O/W and $549 on Saturday. And the 7 am flight are not selling that well from what I can see.

As a point of reference, delta started DCA to LAX at around the same time and selling D1 seats at $1040 for post July 9th. JFK to LAX ranges from over $800 to over $1600 for post July 4th. BOS to SFO is going for $599 and $549 on Saturday and they are not selling out.

So, they are getting $500 less per J seat for a longer flight that they can charge higher Y on.

Frankly, if they can generate $500 per Y seat every day (which they can't), they should be going HD configuration rather than their premium config.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:42 pm

LH423 wrote:
I think it's time for AA to pull the plug on the CDG flight. Some of these numbers we're seeing are lower than we might expect but when you consider that's an average of the whole year, they're not that bad. But when AA is barely filling more than half of a 757 from May to September/early October, that's a sign that they're no longer relevant players in the market. As nice as it is to still have that link back to the days when AA flew 777s to LHR, 767s to LAX, A300s to SJU, used the Earhart building to house the bulk of its Eagle network and came oh so close to starting the NRT flight, I can't see why they continue with this one. I bet, unless last year was a one-off bad year or they are consistently filling the J cabin, this summer or next will probably be the last for AA146/147.

LH423


Its gotta make money or it makes very important accounts very happy.... AA did increase season length in 2015 from 2014 with a slight cutback in 2016.

2014 - June-October only
2015 - May-October
2016- May- September

They share profit/loss on this route with IAG and AY with the JV so its a calculated decision to keep it.

Finally a little bit of a conspiracy theory - AAdvantage awards seem plentiful on the route. I wonder if its being used as a "mileage sink" to get miles off the books.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN
 
commavia
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:46 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
Its gotta make money or it makes very important accounts very happy.... AA did increase season length in 2015 from 2014 with a slight cutback in 2016.


That's my thinking as well. I understand all of the arguments made above - and agree with many of them. Given that AA's schedule (once daily, summer only) and product offering on the route are both woefully inferior to that of the nonstop competition, I, too, continue to find it amazing that this route has survived this long. But, alas, I agree with you that it must be either corporate account(s) or the halo effect of the JV with IAG or BOS-area AAdvantage members or some combination thereof, because somehow, some way, while all of us seem to have had this route on death watch for almost a decade now, it still persists every summer.
 
33lspotter
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:15 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
Problems of the second frequency
- Did it have to be daily? why not add it on peak days 3-4 times a week (367 or 2467 would probably be ideal)
- Did it have to be year-round? EK wisely dabbled in this by cutting for October and half of November
- Did it have to be double 77W - that's a fleet issue on EK's end - costs to operate 77W are probably lower than 77L
- EK starting MCO and FLL - probably two of the biggest feeders for BOS/JFK. DXB-MCO has already gone back to daily from the frequency cut.
- QR entering - Something SEA did not have to contend with.


Just to clarify – by "second frequency" we mean the morning flight that was added rather than the evening flight (being "second" flight of the day), correct? I do get the reasoning behind the morning flight as far as B6 connections, but assuming we're talking about the same thing, I agree with ChrisNH that all things considered it probably wasn't the best idea.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Or BOS-SFO already has too many lie flat competition and BOS-LAX will remain the way it is. Have you seen the price DL is selling their J seats and what kind of load factor the morning flight is getting? VX looks like it's selling less than half of the J seats. From the coming Wednesday to Friday, J is selling at $699 when Y is selling at $502. UA dumped serious amount of premium J when DL entered and it's meant to kick DL and/or AS/VX out.


Loads look pretty good to me. Only 3 J seats left on the 7am DL BOS-SFO this Wednesday out of 16. At $700 one way and $500 coach is that terrible? I don't think so. Comparatively DL JFK-SFO 7am on Wednesday is $300 coach and $1600 in J with 5 seats left. If DL is making $200 more per coach seat out of BOS and it's currently 85% booked than I'd guess it's not hurting.

Somebody will come in with J flat beds BOS-LAX to go against B6.


Are you trolling me?

The comparison here is over premium J, not Y seat, since we are talking about lie flats. From premium J pricing, they are doing terribly. When you are selling flat bed seat at 40% more than Y seat, when they should be going for 4 to 5 times, that's a huge problem. We are 3 days away and right in front of July 4th weekend, those lie flats can still only sell for $699. Generally speaking, DL is pricing all their Js more than a week out at $599 O/W and $549 on Saturday. And the 7 am flight are not selling that well from what I can see.

As a point of reference, delta started DCA to LAX at around the same time and selling D1 seats at $1040 for post July 9th. JFK to LAX ranges from over $800 to over $1600 for post July 4th. BOS to SFO is going for $599 and $549 on Saturday and they are not selling out.

So, they are getting $500 less per J seat for a longer flight that they can charge higher Y on.

Frankly, if they can generate $500 per Y seat every day (which they can't), they should be going HD configuration rather than their premium config.


If my correcting you is trolling, then yes I am. You are posting inaccurate info. Let me correct you again:

1). Tomorrow's 7am BOS-SFO is SOLD OUT in J. The 4pm has 1 J seat that is selling for $1,148 one-way, Y is going for $600 one-way. So clearly the 7am is doing okay.

2). I'm not sure why you base how well DL is doing on the route by giving examples of what DL is doing for their Saturday flights. BOS-SFO-BOS is a very business heavy route and doesn't have business demand on Saturday's. So DL is doing what it needs to sell the seats.

3). How can you compare DCA-LAX where DL is the only airline with J seats on the route to BOS-SFO where there are now 3 airlines (DL, UA, B6) with J cabins. Of course DL can charge more on DCA-LAX because they're the ONLY one in the market with the product. They can't do that on BOS-SFO.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:05 am

33lspotter wrote:

Just to clarify – by "second frequency" we mean the morning flight that was added rather than the evening flight (being "second" flight of the day), correct? I do get the reasoning behind the morning flight as far as B6 connections, but assuming we're talking about the same thing, I agree with ChrisNH that all things considered it probably wasn't the best idea.


Yes - second frequency to me means the morning flight. Also - the B6 connections do OK Regardless of the timing of the flights especially the night departure since it arrives early. The timings from BOS to any destination from DXB is the improvement with the second frequency. There are some destinations which only connect well in one direction with the night departure. An example I gave was CGK.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN
 
tphuang
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:21 am

clrd4t8koff wrote:
tphuang wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

Loads look pretty good to me. Only 3 J seats left on the 7am DL BOS-SFO this Wednesday out of 16. At $700 one way and $500 coach is that terrible? I don't think so. Comparatively DL JFK-SFO 7am on Wednesday is $300 coach and $1600 in J with 5 seats left. If DL is making $200 more per coach seat out of BOS and it's currently 85% booked than I'd guess it's not hurting.

Somebody will come in with J flat beds BOS-LAX to go against B6.


Are you trolling me?

The comparison here is over premium J, not Y seat, since we are talking about lie flats. From premium J pricing, they are doing terribly. When you are selling flat bed seat at 40% more than Y seat, when they should be going for 4 to 5 times, that's a huge problem. We are 3 days away and right in front of July 4th weekend, those lie flats can still only sell for $699. Generally speaking, DL is pricing all their Js more than a week out at $599 O/W and $549 on Saturday. And the 7 am flight are not selling that well from what I can see.

As a point of reference, delta started DCA to LAX at around the same time and selling D1 seats at $1040 for post July 9th. JFK to LAX ranges from over $800 to over $1600 for post July 4th. BOS to SFO is going for $599 and $549 on Saturday and they are not selling out.

So, they are getting $500 less per J seat for a longer flight that they can charge higher Y on.

Frankly, if they can generate $500 per Y seat every day (which they can't), they should be going HD configuration rather than their premium config.


If my correcting you is trolling, then yes I am. You are posting inaccurate info. Let me correct you again:

1). Tomorrow's 7am BOS-SFO is SOLD OUT in J. The 4pm has 1 J seat that is selling for $1,148 one-way, Y is going for $600 one-way. So clearly the 7am is doing okay.

2). I'm not sure why you base how well DL is doing on the route by giving examples of what DL is doing for their Saturday flights. BOS-SFO-BOS is a very business heavy route and doesn't have business demand on Saturday's. So DL is doing what it needs to sell the seats.

3). How can you compare DCA-LAX where DL is the only airline with J seats on the route to BOS-SFO where there are now 3 airlines (DL, UA, B6) with J cabins. Of course DL can charge more on DCA-LAX because they're the ONLY one in the market with the product. They can't do that on BOS-SFO.


For 1) Your example uses Monday morning, which is typically the most highly demand day along with Fridays and Sunday. If you look at DL2488 on this coming Tuesday, only 6 of 16 J seats are taken. If you bother looking at Tuesday/Wednesday from the past couple of weeks, you'd see that 7 am is only getting 1/2 to 2/3 filled. And most of these seats are getting filled when the pricing is at $599.

As for 2), I clearly stated it's $599 on other days and $549 on Saturday. I base my calculation on other days. Delta has been pricing its J on BOS-SFO far lower than DCA-LAX, JAK-LAX.

Your point 3) just proofs my point all along that with this much competition, DL is forced to sell its seats at a price that's only 3 times Y price and 1.4 times closer in, when it needs to be selling them close to 5 times (why it does on the other D1 route) to get better yield than a non-premium config.

Each D1 J seat takes the space of 4 Y seat. So it would get better yield if it just sells all Y rather than keep selling J seat at $599. Just picking that DL2488 flight, Y is selling at $615 and j is selling at $899. They would make more even selling 2 Y seat vs 1 J seat.

What's the point of putting lie flat if it's only selling slightly more than a Y seat?

For some calculation to see how well it does vs other D1 routes when considering most of these seats are sold at $599 to $699 compared to $800+ to $1600+ on JFK/LAX and $1040 to $1200 on DCA/LAX. So it typically expects on average around $1100 to $1200, but its' actually getting around $650.

By loosing approximately $500 per J seat, they would be loosing $8000 per flight and $16000 per R/T vs other D1 routes. They do 2 R/T a day. That's 16k x 2 x 365 = 11.68 million over a year.
 
tysmith95
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:27 am

An Azores Airlines a320 drifted off a runway and struck two taxiway lights today.

http://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/Pla ... 27823.html
 
B752OS
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:40 am

A small sample size if hardly a good way to gauge a route. I just looked up random dates in July - July 25-28 and looks like DL is asking $1,426 on BOS-SFO for Delta One and the same price on the return flights SFO-BOS. Point being that it may be tough to base assumptions off of only a handful of dates.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:15 am

tysmith95 wrote:
An Azores Airlines a320 drifted off a runway and struck two taxiway lights today.

http://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/Pla ... 27823.html


If was an A310 but good job by NBC Boston by only being off by 10 :lol:
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:24 am

tphuang wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Are you trolling me?

The comparison here is over premium J, not Y seat, since we are talking about lie flats. From premium J pricing, they are doing terribly. When you are selling flat bed seat at 40% more than Y seat, when they should be going for 4 to 5 times, that's a huge problem. We are 3 days away and right in front of July 4th weekend, those lie flats can still only sell for $699. Generally speaking, DL is pricing all their Js more than a week out at $599 O/W and $549 on Saturday. And the 7 am flight are not selling that well from what I can see.

As a point of reference, delta started DCA to LAX at around the same time and selling D1 seats at $1040 for post July 9th. JFK to LAX ranges from over $800 to over $1600 for post July 4th. BOS to SFO is going for $599 and $549 on Saturday and they are not selling out.

So, they are getting $500 less per J seat for a longer flight that they can charge higher Y on.

Frankly, if they can generate $500 per Y seat every day (which they can't), they should be going HD configuration rather than their premium config.


If my correcting you is trolling, then yes I am. You are posting inaccurate info. Let me correct you again:

1). Tomorrow's 7am BOS-SFO is SOLD OUT in J. The 4pm has 1 J seat that is selling for $1,148 one-way, Y is going for $600 one-way. So clearly the 7am is doing okay.

2). I'm not sure why you base how well DL is doing on the route by giving examples of what DL is doing for their Saturday flights. BOS-SFO-BOS is a very business heavy route and doesn't have business demand on Saturday's. So DL is doing what it needs to sell the seats.

3). How can you compare DCA-LAX where DL is the only airline with J seats on the route to BOS-SFO where there are now 3 airlines (DL, UA, B6) with J cabins. Of course DL can charge more on DCA-LAX because they're the ONLY one in the market with the product. They can't do that on BOS-SFO.


For 1) Your example uses Monday morning, which is typically the most highly demand day along with Fridays and Sunday. If you look at DL2488 on this coming Tuesday, only 6 of 16 J seats are taken. If you bother looking at Tuesday/Wednesday from the past couple of weeks, you'd see that 7 am is only getting 1/2 to 2/3 filled. And most of these seats are getting filled when the pricing is at $599.

As for 2), I clearly stated it's $599 on other days and $549 on Saturday. I base my calculation on other days. Delta has been pricing its J on BOS-SFO far lower than DCA-LAX, JAK-LAX.

Your point 3) just proofs my point all along that with this much competition, DL is forced to sell its seats at a price that's only 3 times Y price and 1.4 times closer in, when it needs to be selling them close to 5 times (why it does on the other D1 route) to get better yield than a non-premium config.

Each D1 J seat takes the space of 4 Y seat. So it would get better yield if it just sells all Y rather than keep selling J seat at $599. Just picking that DL2488 flight, Y is selling at $615 and j is selling at $899. They would make more even selling 2 Y seat vs 1 J seat.

What's the point of putting lie flat if it's only selling slightly more than a Y seat?

For some calculation to see how well it does vs other D1 routes when considering most of these seats are sold at $599 to $699 compared to $800+ to $1600+ on JFK/LAX and $1040 to $1200 on DCA/LAX. So it typically expects on average around $1100 to $1200, but its' actually getting around $650.

By loosing approximately $500 per J seat, they would be loosing $8000 per flight and $16000 per R/T vs other D1 routes. They do 2 R/T a day. That's 16k x 2 x 365 = 11.68 million over a year.


The route just started on June 8th. DL is a new player and these are introductory fares. You aren't understanding this for some reason and now others are calling you out also. Please see the comment below:

B752OS wrote:
A small sample size if hardly a good way to gauge a route. I just looked up random dates in July - July 25-28 and looks like DL is asking $1,426 on BOS-SFO for Delta One and the same price on the return flights SFO-BOS. Point being that it may be tough to base assumptions off of only a handful of dates.


So tphuang you can relax now as DL will be selling BOS-SFO for more than what it sells DCA-LAX. Do you feel better now?
 
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tlecam
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:29 am

I just used google flights to look out across the rest of the summer and they're charging between 1200-14/1500 bucks round trip in J with a 14 day advance purchase with flights up around 1800 bucks within 7 days (if available.). Coach is going for 350-450 with 14 days. So they're not far off of the 4-5x for premium cabin.

Interestingly, the 14 day advance fares are about $100 less than JFK-SFO (range 13-1500) . Given that they just started the route, I don't think that's too bad.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
tphuang
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:33 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
tphuang wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

If my correcting you is trolling, then yes I am. You are posting inaccurate info. Let me correct you again:

1). Tomorrow's 7am BOS-SFO is SOLD OUT in J. The 4pm has 1 J seat that is selling for $1,148 one-way, Y is going for $600 one-way. So clearly the 7am is doing okay.

2). I'm not sure why you base how well DL is doing on the route by giving examples of what DL is doing for their Saturday flights. BOS-SFO-BOS is a very business heavy route and doesn't have business demand on Saturday's. So DL is doing what it needs to sell the seats.

3). How can you compare DCA-LAX where DL is the only airline with J seats on the route to BOS-SFO where there are now 3 airlines (DL, UA, B6) with J cabins. Of course DL can charge more on DCA-LAX because they're the ONLY one in the market with the product. They can't do that on BOS-SFO.


For 1) Your example uses Monday morning, which is typically the most highly demand day along with Fridays and Sunday. If you look at DL2488 on this coming Tuesday, only 6 of 16 J seats are taken. If you bother looking at Tuesday/Wednesday from the past couple of weeks, you'd see that 7 am is only getting 1/2 to 2/3 filled. And most of these seats are getting filled when the pricing is at $599.

As for 2), I clearly stated it's $599 on other days and $549 on Saturday. I base my calculation on other days. Delta has been pricing its J on BOS-SFO far lower than DCA-LAX, JAK-LAX.

Your point 3) just proofs my point all along that with this much competition, DL is forced to sell its seats at a price that's only 3 times Y price and 1.4 times closer in, when it needs to be selling them close to 5 times (why it does on the other D1 route) to get better yield than a non-premium config.

Each D1 J seat takes the space of 4 Y seat. So it would get better yield if it just sells all Y rather than keep selling J seat at $599. Just picking that DL2488 flight, Y is selling at $615 and j is selling at $899. They would make more even selling 2 Y seat vs 1 J seat.

What's the point of putting lie flat if it's only selling slightly more than a Y seat?

For some calculation to see how well it does vs other D1 routes when considering most of these seats are sold at $599 to $699 compared to $800+ to $1600+ on JFK/LAX and $1040 to $1200 on DCA/LAX. So it typically expects on average around $1100 to $1200, but its' actually getting around $650.

By loosing approximately $500 per J seat, they would be loosing $8000 per flight and $16000 per R/T vs other D1 routes. They do 2 R/T a day. That's 16k x 2 x 365 = 11.68 million over a year.


The route just started on June 8th. DL is a new player and these are introductory fares. You aren't understanding this for some reason and now others are calling you out also. Please see the comment below:

B752OS wrote:
A small sample size if hardly a good way to gauge a route. I just looked up random dates in July - July 25-28 and looks like DL is asking $1,426 on BOS-SFO for Delta One and the same price on the return flights SFO-BOS. Point being that it may be tough to base assumptions off of only a handful of dates.


So tphuang you can relax now as DL will be selling BOS-SFO for more than what it sells DCA-LAX. Do you feel better now?


A couple of things:
I forgot to mention in your other post about Monday's flight that it was within 24 hours of the flight, so that's when a lot of free upgrades are happening. That's why you need to look at least couple of days ahead.

As for your example of July 25 to 28th, that doesn't jive with reality.
https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0
Just click on the calendar and check out the prices, it's all $599 after July 9th and $549 on saturdays with no exceptions. The evening flight sometimes do a little better but outside of Monday and Sunday night, they are rarely at more than $649. The July 4th week is selling at $649 and current week is at $699 to 899, because the Y prices are over $500.

As for JFK to SFO.
https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0
The week of 9th to 15th, it's asking for over $1200 O/W vs $599 on BOS to SFO.
And if you look at the rest of July, they have 8 flights each day, most of the flights are priced at $1059, with the odd flight or 2 at sub $1000 on odd Tue/Wed.

for DCA to LAX
https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0
Never priced below $1040

JFK to LAX
https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0
seems to be priced a little better than JFK to SFO.
 
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tlecam
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:41 pm

I have no idea what's going on with the one way fares, but using July 25th-28th as an example, the RT fares for BOS-SFO are 1400 plus in business. JFK-SFO is 1800. As I said previously, not bad for a route that's less than a month old.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
tphuang
Posts: 6280
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:45 pm

tlecam wrote:
I just used google flights to look out across the rest of the summer and they're charging between 1200-14/1500 bucks round trip in J with a 14 day advance purchase with flights up around 1800 bucks within 7 days (if available.). Coach is going for 350-450 with 14 days. So they're not far off of the 4-5x for premium cabin.

Interestingly, the 14 day advance fares are about $100 less than JFK-SFO (range 13-1500) . Given that they just started the route, I don't think that's too bad.

I posted what I saw on JFK/SFO for DL.

R/T
https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0
https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0
https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0
https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0
JFK/LAX, DCA/LAX, JFK/SFO, BOS/SFO
$2500+ vs $2300 vs $1800 vs $1200

I think there is a lot of competition for lie flat on this route now thanks to UA dumping so much lie flat here. Whether or not there is enough people willing to pay well over $1000 for those lie flats to achieve profitability across 4 airlines remains to be seen. I think if the airlines are sell most of their Y seats at $180 O/W on this route which is longer than JFK-SFO and providing meal service, they are probably loosing money. They make it back on JFK-SFO/LAX by charging well over $1000 on a lot of the lie flats. They getting $599 to $699 J fare on BOS-SFO, when the average Y fare are over $200 (when you account for both flight of the day and also the busy days).

It would be interesting to see, but I don't think this will carry over to BOS-LAX.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:21 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
LH423 wrote:
I think it's time for AA to pull the plug on the CDG flight. Some of these numbers we're seeing are lower than we might expect but when you consider that's an average of the whole year, they're not that bad. But when AA is barely filling more than half of a 757 from May to September/early October, that's a sign that they're no longer relevant players in the market. As nice as it is to still have that link back to the days when AA flew 777s to LHR, 767s to LAX, A300s to SJU, used the Earhart building to house the bulk of its Eagle network and came oh so close to starting the NRT flight, I can't see why they continue with this one. I bet, unless last year was a one-off bad year or they are consistently filling the J cabin, this summer or next will probably be the last for AA146/147.

LH423


Its gotta make money or it makes very important accounts very happy.... AA did increase season length in 2015 from 2014 with a slight cutback in 2016.

2014 - June-October only
2015 - May-October
2016- May- September

They share profit/loss on this route with IAG and AY with the JV so its a calculated decision to keep it.

Finally a little bit of a conspiracy theory - AAdvantage awards seem plentiful on the route. I wonder if its being used as a "mileage sink" to get miles off the books.


Funny you should say that. I spent 57.5k points to bag a Business MilesAAver award on CDG-BOS-JFK just 5 days before the flight. The only other option to get me from Paris to NYC would have been Finnair via Helsinki.

Those points had been sitting in my account for over a year.

As a side note, the front cabin had 2 open seats, one of which was occupied by a nonrev. While I thought the seat and service were excellent, it was a bit annoying that the iPads were collected an hour before arrival... oh well, I guess it was better than the overhead displays in economy.
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:30 pm

tphuang wrote:
I forgot to mention in your other post about Monday's flight that it was within 24 hours of the flight, so that's when a lot of free upgrades are happening. That's why you need to look at least couple of days ahead.


BOS-SFO-BOS is a DeltaOne (D1) route, there are no free upgrades offered. The cabin is SOLD OUT not filled with free upgrades. It's treated the same as JFK-SFO/LAX.

Why are you trying to reach so hard to find issues with this flight? DL is the newest player in the space, it must do what it needs to do to attract business away from the other 3 airlines that have been flying the route for several years. What don't you get about that?!?!?

Please look at Saturday, July 22nd from SFO-BOS one-way on the non-stop. It's $1,149:

https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0

Look at Saturday, July 15th. It's $2,431 one way:

https://www.google.com/flights/#search; ... b;a=DL;s=0

Show me one day where the DCA-LAX-DCA flight is ever over $2k? Heck I don't see any dates this summer that it's even ever $1,080.

Are you happy yet?
 
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tlecam
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:00 pm

Not only that, but if you look at a few of the consistent business travel patterns, you'll find that Delta is commanding some pretty healthy fares:

Examples: Monday - Thursday:
July 17-20 - the morning flight is $1500 and the evening flight is $2000. If I select the morning flight, the return red eye on Thursday the 20th is commanding $3000 and it bumps up to $3500 if I went outbound on the evening flight. The daytime flight is commanding $1500.

July 24-27 - both flights are commanding 1800 on Monday outbound. The daytime return commands 1800 while the red eye commands $3000.
If I select the outgoing evening flight, the return red eye is commanding $3500. The daytime return flight is commanding $1800.


Tuesday through Thursday flights show similar patterns.

I think they're doing just fine so far.
Last edited by tlecam on Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
cloudboy
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:00 pm

Just because a fare is OFFERED doesn't mean a fare is SELLING. Those seats may be taken because of connections, not because people are paying that to fly BOS to SFO. Or, they may be upgrade with points.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
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tlecam
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:02 pm

That is true, but my guess is that BOS-SFO on DL is mostly O&D. Most of the connections will flow through ATL/MSP/DTW.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
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pitbosflyer
Posts: 392
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Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:35 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
LH423 wrote:
I think it's time for AA to pull the plug on the CDG flight. Some of these numbers we're seeing are lower than we might expect but when you consider that's an average of the whole year, they're not that bad. But when AA is barely filling more than half of a 757 from May to September/early October, that's a sign that they're no longer relevant players in the market. As nice as it is to still have that link back to the days when AA flew 777s to LHR, 767s to LAX, A300s to SJU, used the Earhart building to house the bulk of its Eagle network and came oh so close to starting the NRT flight, I can't see why they continue with this one. I bet, unless last year was a one-off bad year or they are consistently filling the J cabin, this summer or next will probably be the last for AA146/147.

LH423


Its gotta make money or it makes very important accounts very happy.... AA did increase season length in 2015 from 2014 with a slight cutback in 2016.

2014 - June-October only
2015 - May-October
2016- May- September

They share profit/loss on this route with IAG and AY with the JV so its a calculated decision to keep it.

Finally a little bit of a conspiracy theory - AAdvantage awards seem plentiful on the route. I wonder if its being used as a "mileage sink" to get miles off the books.


Funny you should say that. I spent 57.5k points to bag a Business MilesAAver award on CDG-BOS-JFK just 5 days before the flight. The only other option to get me from Paris to NYC would have been Finnair via Helsinki.

Those points had been sitting in my account for over a year.

As a side note, the front cabin had 2 open seats, one of which was occupied by a nonrev. While I thought the seat and service were excellent, it was a bit annoying that the iPads were collected an hour before arrival... oh well, I guess it was better than the overhead displays in economy.


The craziest part is the flight from JFK to BOS would have had a better product than the flight to Paris. When is AA going to update their international 757's?

Image
A:320/21, 333, 343, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 763, 772 || MD80, MD90 || E:145, 170, 175, 190, 195 || CR200, 700, 900
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3310
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:38 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:

Its gotta make money or it makes very important accounts very happy.... AA did increase season length in 2015 from 2014 with a slight cutback in 2016.

2014 - June-October only
2015 - May-October
2016- May- September

They share profit/loss on this route with IAG and AY with the JV so its a calculated decision to keep it.

Finally a little bit of a conspiracy theory - AAdvantage awards seem plentiful on the route. I wonder if its being used as a "mileage sink" to get miles off the books.


Funny you should say that. I spent 57.5k points to bag a Business MilesAAver award on CDG-BOS-JFK just 5 days before the flight. The only other option to get me from Paris to NYC would have been Finnair via Helsinki.

Those points had been sitting in my account for over a year.

As a side note, the front cabin had 2 open seats, one of which was occupied by a nonrev. While I thought the seat and service were excellent, it was a bit annoying that the iPads were collected an hour before arrival... oh well, I guess it was better than the overhead displays in economy.


The craziest part is the flight from JFK to BOS would have had a better product than the flight to Paris. When is AA going to update their international 757's?

Image


I was so looking forward to the novelty of flying the 321T from BOS to JFK, but the flight was so delayed that we opted to take an earlier flight to LGA...4 hours in the Admirals Club was more than enough.

cloudboy wrote:
Just because a fare is OFFERED doesn't mean a fare is SELLING. Those seats may be taken because of connections, not because people are paying that to fly BOS to SFO. Or, they may be upgrade with points.


I wonder where DL1 is pulling passengers from on BOS-SFO. With UA upping its offering, B6 adding another frequency, and AS eventually introducing a new FC product, this market is certainly heating up.

Interestingly, B6 is selling walk-up seats at $899-$1149, which is a higher range than BOS-LAX -- where B6 is the only flat bed offering.
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: Boston Aviation - Part 13

Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:08 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
I wonder where DL1 is pulling passengers from on BOS-SFO. With UA upping its offering, B6 adding another frequency, and AS eventually introducing a new FC product, this market is certainly heating up.

Interestingly, B6 is selling walk-up seats at $899-$1149, which is a higher range than BOS-LAX -- where B6 is the only flat bed offering.


DL is a much larger player in BOS than UA is, while UA is obviously the larger player on the SFO end. With enough perseverance DL should be able to make 2x daily work, though they may want to at least go 3x to be competitive as all the other carriers have at least 3x daily flights.

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