tayaramecanici wrote:

H1-B Visa applicants are a smaller number of the total US-India travels. Approx is about 35,000+ Pax affected, having said that, any drop will show. What need to be seen, is the visit of Narendra Modi to Trump expected to happen by mid-March'17. The Trump admin have been on record to state the trade between US-India is expected to increase triple to $300B by the time this Trump 1 first Term.
This might lead to increase of Biz travels between US-India, in excess of the loss of H1-B refused applicant.

Flighty wrote:

H1B is a good program and it also has a lot of fraud in it, and a lot of simple labor market arbitrage (hiring $25/hr workers to do a $50/hr job). That isn't "innovation," it is simply poaching American wages.

anshabhi wrote:

ME3 will suffer more than AI simply because AI caters to high net worth NRIs, who won't mind paying extra for nonstops.

audian wrote:

Secondly, ME3 has most non stop connections to Indian cities from USA than AI.

SCQ83 wrote:

The US government wants to double the minimum pay to give H1B visas in the US, to $130,000.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 903796.cms

Currently, a whopping 72% H1B visas (about 50,000 new visas a year) are granted to Indian nationals, which make a good part of the traffic in the ME3 from the US. For sure, many of those Indians working in Wall St or Silicon Valley will have salaries higher than $130k, but many others will not "cut it".

Leaving politics aside, what could be the impact of those new regulations on the ME3 traffic from the US?

SCQ83 wrote:

The US government wants to double the minimum pay to give H1B visas in the US, to $130,000.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 903796.cms

SCQ83 wrote:

Leaving politics aside, what could be the impact of those new regulations on the ME3 traffic from the US?

SFOtoORD wrote:

SCQ83 wrote:

The US government wants to double the minimum pay to give H1B visas in the US, to $130,000.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 903796.cms

Currently, a whopping 72% H1B visas (about 50,000 new visas a year) are granted to Indian nationals, which make a good part of the traffic in the ME3 from the US. For sure, many of those Indians working in Wall St or Silicon Valley will have salaries higher than $130k, but many others will not "cut it".

Leaving politics aside, what could be the impact of those new regulations on the ME3 traffic from the US?

This is positive. The only companies paying below $130k are low level outsourcing companies. Better to focus these visas on high skills jobs. Several outsourcing firms have been skirting these rules for a decade or more.

VTORD wrote:

That last statement is not entirely accurate. I have a friend who works as PM for a major telecom company and does not make 130K. He is a full time employee with an approved GC. There are many variables here.

Standard/Cost of living by geography (65K in GA being equivalent to 90K in CA bay area for eg.,). Plus pay variances by industry is another big factor. A plant engineer (with a Masters) on H1B in manufacturing has 0 chance of being offered 130K compared to an equivalent H1B developer/analyst in IT. A plant engineer typically reports to Plant Manager / Plant GM and they themselves (in most cases US Citizens) don't make much more than 130K! Does that automatically imply that the H1b is not as qualified as a US Citizen to hold that job and is being employed solely because he is being underpaid?

SFOtoORD wrote:

This is positive. The only companies paying below $130k are low level outsourcing companies. Better to focus these visas on high skills jobs. Several outsourcing firms have been skirting these rules for a decade or more.

LAXintl wrote:

Won't matter much. Its a tiny fraction of traffic between the nations.

Here are stats on Indian nationals entry to the US for 2015 fiscal year.

TOTAL: 1,898,327
TOURISM: 1,175,153
STUDENTS: 179,581
WORK: 493,426

BawliBooch wrote:

anshabhi wrote:

ME3 will suffer more than AI simply because AI caters to high net worth NRIs, who won't mind paying extra for nonstops.

Err...! What? Most HNW NRI's prefer BA or EK even with a stopover. AI is not the cheapest, but they compete with their baggage allowances and being liberal with the booze in economy.

audian wrote:

Secondly, ME3 has most non stop connections to Indian cities from USA than AI.

Max connection possibilities yes. But not nonstop. Via their hubs in DXB/DOH. I think BA & LH have the max connection opportunities to North America ex-BLR.

anshabhi wrote:

ME3 will suffer more than AI simply because AI caters to high net worth NRIs, who won't mind paying extra for nonstops.

ScottB wrote:

I wouldn't call over a quarter of Indian-national travel to the U.S. on work visas a tiny fraction of the demand. Granted, that's not all H1Bs but I suspect they amount to 10% or more of the total.

goacom wrote:

The ME3 have many direct feeder flights to several locations in India. The connections and efficiency at the ME3 hubs (Abu Dhabi, Doha etc) far surpass those of Delhi or Mumbai.

Flighty wrote:

H1B is a good program and it also has a lot of fraud in it, and a lot of simple labor market arbitrage (hiring $25/hr workers to do a $50/hr job). That isn't "innovation," it is simply poaching American wages. It probably would decrease long term traffic to crack down on Wipro, Infosys etc. The skills shortage in the US is to a large extent a myth. This is a country that put men on the moon in 1969, and we need engineers from a country that frankly didn't have indoor plumbing yet in 1969?

If you have attended university in America you might be able to arrive at the answer to this question by asking yourself the following questions:

1)In the most technologically advanced country with access to the best resources in the world, how many Americans actually graduate from high school?

2)In the richest country in the world, how many Americans are able to afford college and actually attend college? Why is tuition so insanely high?

3)In the country with the best universities, how many freshmen year students choose to major in Engineering, Math or Computer Science?

4) In a country with the best graduate and research programs, how many of these STEM majors go on to do a Masters or a PhD in their chosen field?

5) In a country with the most advanced trailblazing technology companies how many of the kids who got a STEM education choose to do engineering/technical jobs instead of finance, legal, sales, marketing, accounting kind of professions after graduation?

6) How many of them are willing to relocate to the hubs of technology innovation such as Silicon Valley, New York, Seattle or Austin rather than stay close to home in places such as Columbus,OH, Des Moines, IA, or Kansas City, Mo?

7) How many kids in your high school were popular and admired for their ability to excel in Math and Science vs being branded 'geek' or 'nerd' in a derogatory way? What is the American image of a software engineer in the minds of people? Is it not of the bespectacled male nerd or geek obsessed with video games and comic books with no real social skills or women friends? Other countries such as India and China don't have that kind derogatory image for people skilled in STEM fields. Why would any kid want to be a nerd or geek and be repulsive to women then? The day these words disappear from popular conception, large number of Americans will do STEM and there won't be a need to fill those jobs with immigrants. In India and China, engineers and scientists are respected and valued. It is cool if you are smart and intellectual in Asia, not so in the states!

8) How popular/cool were kids who excelled at math and science among women compared to kids who excelled in sports?

9) Try to name 5 great scientists from before 1950 and 5 great scientists after 1950. Try to name 20 sports persons after 2000. If you cannot name 5 scientists after 1950 and you can name 20 sport-stars you have your answer. And if Neil Degrasse Tyson is one of the 5 you just named, it is even more tragically indicative of how the media is shaping the image of science in America and how poorly read and informed Americans are that unless something comes on TV they won't know it.

10) When was the last time you were intrigued by an article in the Scientific American or nature? Was it more recent than an article from the People magazine?

All of this should give you an idea of the kind of society America has become in the last 30 years and why there is such a huge shortfall of STEM educated American born people in America. Nobody is restricting Americans from learning science. This is by far the country with the best teachers, best universities, best companies, best educational resources, best paid tech jobs and best market to adopt/consume technology. Yet, what is stopping all Americans from learning science and getting STEM degrees? If a poor kid with limited resources from India and China can learn science in a foreign language, what prevents every American from gaining an advanced science education and competing with every advantage and resource?

America used to lead the world in producing STEM graduates and they used to be respected. But now this society has devolved into one where scientists and engineers are not respected or paid like they once were. The heroes of today's America are wealthy sportstars, movie-stars, lawyers, reality-TV stars and businessmen! Technology has advanced so much and become abstract, virtual and complex. American education has not kept up to give the average person the basic science fundamentals to be able to remotely fathom how anything works or gets built. To the average person the cloud is magic, iPhone is magic, internet is sorcery, electric cars are wizardry, stem cells are voodoo. Nobody knows or cares about how anything in hi-tech is made.

anshabhi wrote:

Flighty wrote:

H1B is a good program and it also has a lot of fraud in it, and a lot of simple labor market arbitrage (hiring $25/hr workers to do a $50/hr job). That isn't "innovation," it is simply poaching American wages. It probably would decrease long term traffic to crack down on Wipro, Infosys etc. The skills shortage in the US is to a large extent a myth. This is a country that put men on the moon in 1969, and we need engineers from a country that frankly didn't have indoor plumbing yet in 1969?

How's it a myth that there's a shortage of skilled American workers? You do need Indians because of faulty and extremely expensive American education system. This is 2017 not 1969. You can get a quality B.Tech in India for about $25,000. The second thing is American society:

If you have attended university in America you might be able to arrive at the answer to this question by asking yourself the following questions:

1)In the most technologically advanced country with access to the best resources in the world, how many Americans actually graduate from high school?

2)In the richest country in the world, how many Americans are able to afford college and actually attend college? Why is tuition so insanely high?

3)In the country with the best universities, how many freshmen year students choose to major in Engineering, Math or Computer Science?

4) In a country with the best graduate and research programs, how many of these STEM majors go on to do a Masters or a PhD in their chosen field?

5) In a country with the most advanced trailblazing technology companies how many of the kids who got a STEM education choose to do engineering/technical jobs instead of finance, legal, sales, marketing, accounting kind of professions after graduation?

6) How many of them are willing to relocate to the hubs of technology innovation such as Silicon Valley, New York, Seattle or Austin rather than stay close to home in places such as Columbus,OH, Des Moines, IA, or Kansas City, Mo?

7) How many kids in your high school were popular and admired for their ability to excel in Math and Science vs being branded 'geek' or 'nerd' in a derogatory way? What is the American image of a software engineer in the minds of people? Is it not of the bespectacled male nerd or geek obsessed with video games and comic books with no real social skills or women friends? Other countries such as India and China don't have that kind derogatory image for people skilled in STEM fields. Why would any kid want to be a nerd or geek and be repulsive to women then? The day these words disappear from popular conception, large number of Americans will do STEM and there won't be a need to fill those jobs with immigrants. In India and China, engineers and scientists are respected and valued. It is cool if you are smart and intellectual in Asia, not so in the states!

8) How popular/cool were kids who excelled at math and science among women compared to kids who excelled in sports?

9) Try to name 5 great scientists from before 1950 and 5 great scientists after 1950. Try to name 20 sports persons after 2000. If you cannot name 5 scientists after 1950 and you can name 20 sport-stars you have your answer. And if Neil Degrasse Tyson is one of the 5 you just named, it is even more tragically indicative of how the media is shaping the image of science in America and how poorly read and informed Americans are that unless something comes on TV they won't know it.

10) When was the last time you were intrigued by an article in the Scientific American or nature? Was it more recent than an article from the People magazine?

All of this should give you an idea of the kind of society America has become in the last 30 years and why there is such a huge shortfall of STEM educated American born people in America. Nobody is restricting Americans from learning science. This is by far the country with the best teachers, best universities, best companies, best educational resources, best paid tech jobs and best market to adopt/consume technology. Yet, what is stopping all Americans from learning science and getting STEM degrees? If a poor kid with limited resources from India and China can learn science in a foreign language, what prevents every American from gaining an advanced science education and competing with every advantage and resource?

America used to lead the world in producing STEM graduates and they used to be respected. But now this society has devolved into one where scientists and engineers are not respected or paid like they once were. The heroes of today's America are wealthy sportstars, movie-stars, lawyers, reality-TV stars and businessmen! Technology has advanced so much and become abstract, virtual and complex. American education has not kept up to give the average person the basic science fundamentals to be able to remotely fathom how anything works or gets built. To the average person the cloud is magic, iPhone is magic, internet is sorcery, electric cars are wizardry, stem cells are voodoo. Nobody knows or cares about how anything in hi-tech is made.

(Copied from https://www.quora.com/Are-H1B-visa-hold ... e=d710a0e4)

Flighty wrote:

H1B is a good program and it also has a lot of fraud in it, and a lot of simple labor market arbitrage (hiring $25/hr workers to do a $50/hr job). That isn't "innovation," it is simply poaching American wages. It probably would decrease long term traffic to crack down on Wipro, Infosys etc. The skills shortage in the US is to a large extent a myth. This is a country that put men on the moon in 1969, and we need engineers from a country that frankly didn't have indoor plumbing yet in 1969?

I have the deepest respect for India and Indian people, but frankly there isn't a lot of logic to the consensus view. Of course, Americans are not willing to do the job for half American wages. The job of cardiologist is not a job Americans are willing to do for $40,000, because that is what a successful waitress makes here. Yes, we need a cultural and intellectual exchange, but not a wholesale labor market harmonization in our IT or other job markets.

In sum, I thought the proposed changes to H1B looked fine. I would allow some entry level H1B too, but not the full allotment, and likely only for a limited time (i.e., not entry level jobs that last 10 years). Because that would result in experienced workers getting the "low" wage H1Bs, which is not what the program is for.

SFOtoORD wrote:

This is positive. The only companies paying below $130k are low level outsourcing companies. Better to focus these visas on high skills jobs. Several outsourcing firms have been skirting these rules for a decade or more.

ScottB wrote:

No, that doesn't imply that the H1B holder is not as qualified, but it may very well be the case that he is being employed due both to his qualifications and his willingness to accept lower pay than a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident. The employer doesn't necessarily seek the best-qualified candidate for any position; they may choose a candidate with adequate qualifications who is willing to work for the least money. In a job market (for plant engineers or project managers as you cite) where there's a shortage of workers willing to work for the proffered compensation, wages would necessarily rise to correct the imbalance of supply and demand -- at least, to the new floor required by a modified H1B program.

bioyuki wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

This is positive. The only companies paying below $130k are low level outsourcing companies. Better to focus these visas on high skills jobs. Several outsourcing firms have been skirting these rules for a decade or more.

Absolutely false. There's plenty of companies, from the Googles of the world, to small startups, that sponsor H-1Bs for less experienced candidates, whose salaries are less than $130k (even in the expensive Bay Area). Wipro and Infosys are terrible, but this proposed legislation would hurt most companies.

bioyuki wrote:

Flighty wrote:

H1B is a good program and it also has a lot of fraud in it, and a lot of simple labor market arbitrage (hiring $25/hr workers to do a $50/hr job). That isn't "innovation," it is simply poaching American wages. It probably would decrease long term traffic to crack down on Wipro, Infosys etc. The skills shortage in the US is to a large extent a myth. This is a country that put men on the moon in 1969, and we need engineers from a country that frankly didn't have indoor plumbing yet in 1969?

I have the deepest respect for India and Indian people, but frankly there isn't a lot of logic to the consensus view. Of course, Americans are not willing to do the job for half American wages. The job of cardiologist is not a job Americans are willing to do for $40,000, because that is what a successful waitress makes here. Yes, we need a cultural and intellectual exchange, but not a wholesale labor market harmonization in our IT or other job markets.

In sum, I thought the proposed changes to H1B looked fine. I would allow some entry level H1B too, but not the full allotment, and likely only for a limited time (i.e., not entry level jobs that last 10 years). Because that would result in experienced workers getting the "low" wage H1Bs, which is not what the program is for.

Your post is full of all sorts of #alternativefacts. Care to back up any of the assertions you've made about the H-1B program including it "has a lot of fraud", "is labor market arbitrage" and that the "skills shortage in the US is to a large extent a myth"? Let me educate you a bit. The Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the United States graduates 88,161 computer science degree holders a year (across all degree levels). The BLS data also shows that there are 144,500 annual computer science job openings per year. That means we're already short 88k CS graduates a year, and this is only one specific job category that the H-1B visa is available for. When you look at all technical degrees and jobs, the picture only gets worse.

This is why the H-1B program needs to be expanded. Our leadership in the technology space is being eroded because our companies can't hire and grow. When I finished my undergrad and joined the Google/Facebook/Amazon/Microsoft's of the world, we literally had deportation parties for friends whose student visas extensions had expired and they weren't able to get a H-1B because of the yearly cap. We're talking about Ivy Legaue graduates, some of the best talent in the world, that the US is forcing to leave the country.

Not only are Americans not willing to work for half the wage as you say, Americans in general aren't willing to work hard in college to earn STEM degrees. As second generation American, I'm just as guilty...my parents wanted me to get a STEM degree but I was lazy and ended up with a humanities degree. This sentiment or mentality isn't changing any time soon so we must continue the H-1B program, as well as increasing it, otherwise we're going to continue to loose our competitiveness moving forward. Let me tell you, as someone who tries to hire every day, the US skills shortage is frighteningly real.