AviationRhys
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BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:33 pm

How are BA latest long haul additions performing from Gatwick? New York, Lima, San Jose de Costa Rica & Cape Town?
 
NichCage
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:06 am

I do know that BA's LGW-JFK has been off and on again over the years, so maybe its performing better now.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:22 am

I flew the BA 2273 from LGW to JFK in October and I can tell you that it was packed.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:23 am

the CAA have numbers through December to help gauge, but they only have pax numbers, not seats and numbers of flights, so you kind of have to figure it out on the fly.
For Cape Town, November was a short month as the flight only started on the 24th and average loads were 84.8% (using a 275 seat 772 per BA Source)
December was a little tricker because MT flew 3 flights during the month, (322 seat 332), BA flew 3 weekly 772 (1 trip was a 219 seater, the rest 275 again per BA Source) , total pax per CAA 8764, seats 9,245 ave load 94.80% (combined BA and MT, no way to separate) , clearly nothing about this speaks to yields, but bums of seats was pretty darn good.

San Jose (CR) relatively sluggish 60's and 70's % loads, however December with an uptick in frequency they got around 80%

Lima bit of a mixed bag, rough early on may was 50%, June 60%, but got better after that. July 77%, Aug 70%, Sept 80%, Oct 87%, dip in Nov 62%, Dec 77% (both Nov and Dec were reduced frequency)

New York is tricky because of the involvement of DY on the route, daily, so it's tough to strip them apart, however combined DY and BA were running between 32 and 34k pax per month. without diving into this one too deeply as I ran out of time, looks like loads are running mid 80's.

hope this helps.
source of pax numbers: http://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analysis/ ... a-2016-01/
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APYu
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:21 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
I flew the BA 2273 from LGW to JFK in October and I can tell you that it was packed.


Economy is often fully loaded - but it struggles up front. J is only half full again today.
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TheLion
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:38 am

VS4ever wrote:
the CAA have numbers through December to help gauge, but they only have pax numbers, not seats and numbers of flights, so you kind of have to figure it out on the fly.
For Cape Town, November was a short month as the flight only started on the 24th and average loads were 84.8% (using a 275 seat 772 per BA Source)
December was a little tricker because MT flew 3 flights during the month, (322 seat 332), BA flew 3 weekly 772 (1 trip was a 219 seater, the rest 275 again per BA Source) , total pax per CAA 8764, seats 9,245 ave load 94.80% (combined BA and MT, no way to separate) , clearly nothing about this speaks to yields, but bums of seats was pretty darn good.

San Jose (CR) relatively sluggish 60's and 70's % loads, however December with an uptick in frequency they got around 80%

Lima bit of a mixed bag, rough early on may was 50%, June 60%, but got better after that. July 77%, Aug 70%, Sept 80%, Oct 87%, dip in Nov 62%, Dec 77% (both Nov and Dec were reduced frequency)

New York is tricky because of the involvement of DY on the route, daily, so it's tough to strip them apart, however combined DY and BA were running between 32 and 34k pax per month. without diving into this one too deeply as I ran out of time, looks like loads are running mid 80's.

hope this helps.
source of pax numbers: http://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analysis/ ... a-2016-01/


Thanks VS4ever, some really useful analysis.

APYu: if the lower LF in Club World is an issue on every flight, then BA's new LGW B772 configuration should help with per-seat yields; CW is being reduced to 32 seats, from 40. The refit will begin early 2018. The changes are thus:

* C from 40 seats to 32 seats
* W from 24 seats to 48 seats
* Y from 216 seats to 252 seats

Total 332 seats in these new ten abreast B772s. Not all of this type will be reconfigured. This has been covered elsewhere on a.net. It should help BA compete vigorously with Norwegian at LGW.
 
skipness1E
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:18 pm

APYu wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
I flew the BA 2273 from LGW to JFK in October and I can tell you that it was packed.


Economy is often fully loaded - but it struggles up front. J is only half full again today.

They also use a three class High J on this route, very atypical for BA's JFK operation. This is a Norwegian strategic spolier.
 
TheGeordielad
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:22 pm

I feel BA at Gatwick is just a base that has spare planes when it comes to long haul aircraft (772).
Why don't BA do what Lufthansa does a Munich and teat each hub the same when its comes to this.
Same with Air France with Orly.
Hope BA adds the likes off Toronto and Chicago in place of the likes of Kingston and San Jose (cr)
 
Cunard
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:39 pm

Seeing that BA are the only airline flying between the Capital of the UK to the capital of Jamaica I can't see them dropping Kingston.

Over time I can see San Jose picking up along with Lima as BA have a lot travel companies along with BA Holidays using those flights.

Toronto will never be served from LGW what's the point same can be said about Chicago unless DY start flying the route from LGW then we might see a Chicago flight from BA but for now absolutely not but remember with the BA/AA JV BA are sharing the costs of LGW to JFK,

Forgive me but you come across as being rather naive!
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EK006
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:23 pm

TheGeordielad wrote:
I feel BA at Gatwick is just a base that has spare planes when it comes to long haul aircraft (772).
Why don't BA do what Lufthansa does a Munich and teat each hub the same when its comes to this.
Same with Air France with Orly.
Hope BA adds the likes off Toronto and Chicago in place of the likes of Kingston and San Jose (cr)


First of all, Gatwick isn't a base where BA send spare long haul aircraft. In fact BA are short on long haul aircraft and are desperate to get more.

Secondly, LHR and LGW are different markets as LHR handles high yielding pax and connections whereas LGW is more about catering south-east England and more O&D orientated. In addition, comparing is to Lufthansa is different as FRA and MUC are different cities and markets as MUC is stronger with connections to Eastern Europe etc, which makes it possible for LH to have a duel hub operation.
 
seansasLCY
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:25 pm

TheGeordielad wrote:
I feel BA at Gatwick is just a base that has spare planes when it comes to long haul aircraft (772).
Why don't BA do what Lufthansa does a Munich and teat each hub the same when its comes to this.
Same with Air France with Orly.
Hope BA adds the likes off Toronto and Chicago in place of the likes of Kingston and San Jose (cr)


BA did treat LGW as a major hub in the 90s. The "hub without the hubbub" was the slogan. It lost a lot of money.

Until very recently the routes were focused on holiday routes and in particular Caribbean and colonial links - hence Jamaica. BA did also serve Montego Bay but dropped the route and increase Kingston. And I think Virgin did the opposite.

Toronto is already well served from Gatwick so not sure BA would do well on that route. The Business routes will continue to operate from LHR.
 
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787fan8
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:29 pm

Would BA ever resume LGW-HAV?
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vv701
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:42 pm

TheGeordielad wrote:
I feel BA at Gatwick is just a base that has spare planes when it comes to long haul aircraft (772)


Three of BA's 772s, G-VIIO, IP and 'IR were ferried directly to LGW after they were delivered by Boeing in the early part of 1999. They have operated BA's Caribbean and Florida flights ever since then. None of the three have ever operated out of LHR. At LGW they were later joined by a fourth frame, 'IT. This aircraft was especially reconfigured before it was permanently transferred from BA's Main Fleet at Heathrow to the BA Gatwick Caribbean / Florida Fleet.

All other 772s operating out of LGW now and in the past have also operated out of LHR. However 'IA has spent a very significant proportion of its operational life at LGW.

Until January 2008 BA supported their 772 operations by locating a spare, back-up aircraft at both LHR and LGW. However when G-YMMM was written off after its crash landing at LHR they initially compensated for its loss by withdrawing the LGW back-up frame. Instead BA used one aircraft based at LHR to back-up both of their 772 fleets. This effectively gave them an instant replacement for the lost frame. Whether they planned this arrangement as an interim solution until a new frame could be obtained and found it was a viable operational solution only they can say. But saving a complete aircraft was obviously economically sound.

As a result of this shared back-up policy the number of 772 LHR-LGW ferry flights that were once quite rare are now not uncommon. So, for example, in the last four complete calendar months there have been eleven such flights. There were six in October, two in November, one in December and another two in January. However two of the October flights were made right at the end of the month at the end of the Summer Timetable. So they were probably made to adjust the 772 fleet sizes to bring them in line with the BA Winter Timetable.
 
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TheLion
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:47 am

vv701 wrote:
TheGeordielad wrote:
I feel BA at Gatwick is just a base that has spare planes when it comes to long haul aircraft (772)


Three of BA's 772s, G-VIIO, IP and 'IR were ferried directly to LGW after they were delivered by Boeing in the early part of 1999. They have operated BA's Caribbean and Florida flights ever since then. None of the three have ever operated out of LHR. At LGW they were later joined by a fourth frame, 'IT. This aircraft was especially reconfigured before it was permanently transferred from BA's Main Fleet at Heathrow to the BA Gatwick Caribbean / Florida Fleet.

All other 772s operating out of LGW now and in the past have also operated out of LHR. However 'IA has spent a very significant proportion of its operational life at LGW.

Until January 2008 BA supported their 772 operations by locating a spare, back-up aircraft at both LHR and LGW. However when G-YMMM was written off after its crash landing at LHR they initially compensated for its loss by withdrawing the LGW back-up frame. Instead BA used one aircraft based at LHR to back-up both of their 772 fleets. This effectively gave them an instant replacement for the lost frame. Whether they planned this arrangement as an interim solution until a new frame could be obtained and found it was a viable operational solution only they can say. But saving a complete aircraft was obviously economically sound.

As a result of this shared back-up policy the number of 772 LHR-LGW ferry flights that were once quite rare are now not uncommon. So, for example, in the last four complete calendar months there have been eleven such flights. There were six in October, two in November, one in December and another two in January. However two of the October flights were made right at the end of the month at the end of the Summer Timetable. So they were probably made to adjust the 772 fleet sizes to bring them in line with the BA Winter Timetable.


Really interesting info, thanks. Did you get it from The BA Source?

787fan8: Yes, I think HAV may well be BA's next or next but one LGW long haul route. So many other European carriers, both full service and low cost/charter airlines, have launched service to HAV. It's increasingly looking like a hole in their network. There are a number of other destinations which I think they're likely to commence service to from LGW. Will share my thoughts in relevant threads.
 
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Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:29 am

Why exactly is Lima from LGW rather than LHR?
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globalcabotage
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:47 am

Doubt ORD would ever go to LGW. This is a premium heavy route that needs frequency. As mentioned above, if Norweigean entered the market, there could be one Y heavy plane on the route.? Other than that, 6x daily (AA/BA JV) is good frequency, but limits the chance of the Whale by BA (could go 5x with 1 whale).
 
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TheLion
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Re:

Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:13 am

ahj2000 wrote:
Why exactly is Lima from LGW rather than LHR?


Primarily due to contracts with tour providers etc as part of BA Holidays. BA envision it as a tourist route first, with perhaps its business and connections component to develop down the line. It's the only direct flight between the UK and Peru so I personally think it should and will go from LHR in future, as that would help fill the plane with a mixture of business, leisure and some VFR. In fact, in future this flight is likely to move to LHR as ties between the UK & Peru strengthen and the route develops.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:25 am

When BA goes to 10 abreast on its 777s, are they retaining their 17.5 inch seat width in World Traveller as KLM did? (The 787-9s also have a 17.5 inch seat width, as do all other BA wide-bodies. OpenSkies 757s, and Egypt/Israel A321s.) Rival Virgin Atlantic is 17.5 inch seat width regardless of the plane.
 
Geoff1947
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:29 am

Flying to PTY in April, had hoped the rumoured direct flight from LGW would have started. Going via MAD instead. Is LGW to PTY still a possibility ?
 
waoz1
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:36 am

Could of done Perth but missed that boat
 
oldannyboy
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:53 am

waoz1 wrote:
Could of done Perth but missed that boat


...Never mind the spelling of your post, but I suppose you meant Perth in Scotland, right mate? ;-)
 
skipness1E
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:59 am

waoz1 wrote:
Could of done Perth but missed that boat

Could have done but shouldn't have done as it would have lost a lot of money IMHO.
 
AviationRhys
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:00 am

I think that these routes could be possibilities for British Airways at Gatwick, feel free to add any more thoughts

LGW-BKK
LGW-HAV
LGW-MIA (more unlikely now with LGW-FLL being added)
LGW-PEK
 
oldannyboy
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:02 am

[quote="Cunard"]Seeing that BA are the only airline flying between the Capital of the UK to the capital of Jamaica I can't see them dropping Kingston.

Over time I can see San Jose picking up along with Lima as BA have a lot travel companies along with BA Holidays using those flights.

Toronto will never be served from LGW what's the point same can be said about Chicago unless DY start flying the route from LGW then we might see a Chicago flight from BA but for now absolutely not but remember with the BA/AA JV BA are sharing the costs of LGW to JFK,

Agree - I could see BA reopening some bucket&spade routes in the Caribbean and *maybe* something like Mauritius/Colombo/Seychelles(Mahe) or perhaps add a second London/ Vegas connection, or New Orleans?
 
AviationRhys
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:10 am

BA have only recently ended its Gatwick-Vegas flights, loads were not great at all and LHR is doing much better, VS always had the upper hand on that route so I don't see that happening. BA also already operates Mauritius from Gatwick and New Orleans is starting from Heathrow in March. I could definitely see Colombo/Seychelles albeit at a low frequency to start.
 
seansasLCY
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:15 am

AviationRhys wrote:
I think that these routes could be possibilities for British Airways at Gatwick, feel free to add any more thoughts

LGW-BKK
LGW-HAV
LGW-MIA (more unlikely now with LGW-FLL being added)
LGW-PEK


BKK was rumoured to be moving from LHR to LGW before but it didn't end up happening. I think its still a possibility.

HAV is being flooded with operators and as the US has shown it isn't the gold pit people think it is.

PEK I don't see going to LGW. Air China operated both LHR and LGW for a period but soon moved back to LHR only.

oldannyboy wrote:
Agree - I could see BA reopening some bucket&spade routes in the Caribbean and *maybe* something like Mauritius/Colombo/Seychelles(Mahe) or perhaps add a second London/ Vegas connection, or New Orleans?
[

Mauritius is already flown from LGW. Colombo was relaunched not too long ago and then dropped. Las Vegas was flown by BA from LGW and dropped last year.
New Orleans is just being launched 4x weekly from LHR so can't see that moving to LGW for a while if ever.
 
seansasLCY
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:17 am

I just checked. Colombo ended in March 2015. Service was 3x weekly via Male. Male continues to operate.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:22 am

oldannyboy wrote:
Agree - I could see BA reopening some bucket&spade routes in the Caribbean and *maybe* something like Mauritius/Colombo/Seychelles(Mahe) or perhaps add a second London/ Vegas connection, or New Orleans?
[

Mauritius is already flown from LGW. Colombo was relaunched not too long ago and then dropped. Las Vegas was flown by BA from LGW and dropped last year.
New Orleans is just being launched 4x weekly from LHR so can't see that moving to LGW for a while if ever.[/quote]

Thanks for pointing all of that out to me. I guess it shows I'm not an avid BA follower anymore :-) .... I still wish I could see them growing consistently at Crawley-Sussex international! Would love to see some 787s there too.... I know, I know...
 
Andy33
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:38 am

oldannyboy wrote:
Agree - I could see BA reopening some bucket&spade routes in the Caribbean and *maybe* something like Mauritius/Colombo/Seychelles(Mahe) or perhaps add a second London/ Vegas connection, or New Orleans?

But they've only just moved their Las Vegas flights from Gatwick to Heathrow!
New Orleans starts 27 March 2017, from Heathrow. They're unlikely to move it to Gatwick immediately.
 
AviationRhys
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:45 am

Andy33 wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
Agree - I could see BA reopening some bucket&spade routes in the Caribbean and *maybe* something like Mauritius/Colombo/Seychelles(Mahe) or perhaps add a second London/ Vegas connection, or New Orleans?

But they've only just moved their Las Vegas flights from Gatwick to Heathrow!
New Orleans starts 27 March 2017, from Heathrow. They're unlikely to move it to Gatwick immediately.


I think he gets the point after the 3rd person mentioning it! Also the Gatwick flight did not move over from Heathrow they were operating simultaneously and Gatwick was dropped.
 
PieterBoth
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:48 am

I know BA has placed many of its long haul 'holiday' routes (Indian Ocean, Caribbean) at LGW. But as someone who doesn't live in the south east of England I find it so frustrating! I recently went to MRU. I checked out BA to fly from MAN (via London of course) and realised that BA doesn't serve LGW from any other airport in England (only EDI and GLA in Scotland). That meant that I would have had to fly MAN-LHR then take a bus to LGW for the flight to MRU! Which of course is bonkers. Does BA not lose a lot of potential connecting passengers from other parts of England who might want to fly to these Indian Ocean / Caribbean destinations? I suspect EK, AF win these customers? BA placing MRU at LGW and having no connecting flights to LGW surely means it loses pax?
 
oldannyboy
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:23 am

AviationRhys wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
But they've only just moved their Las Vegas flights from Gatwick to Heathrow!
New Orleans starts 27 March 2017, from Heathrow. They're unlikely to move it to Gatwick immediately.


I think he gets the point after the 3rd person mentioning it! Also the Gatwick flight did not move over from Heathrow they were operating simultaneously and Gatwick was dropped.



Thanks Rhys! I did indeed get the point! :blush:
 
by738
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:52 pm

how do we know BA flights to LAS had dire loads?
 
vv701
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:16 pm

TheLion wrote:

Really interesting info, thanks. Did you get it from The BA Source.


The excellent 'The BA Source' only goes back to mid 2012 in any detail. So you will only find the four months detail I quoted on LHR-LGW positioning flights on that site. To access that data go to the 'BA Trackers' section and select 'Route Tracker' for 'London Heathrow' to 'London Gatwick' for the appropriate months.

All the other data I gave has come from other sources. I have consolidated it in my own data base that purports to go back to October 1973 when the 'new' British Airways commenced operations and the first aircraft (B 707 G-AXXY) was rolled out in the new BA livery with 'British airways' titles.
 
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TheLion
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:50 am

vv701 wrote:
TheLion wrote:

Really interesting info, thanks. Did you get it from The BA Source.


The excellent 'The BA Source' only goes back to mid 2012 in any detail. So you will only find the four months detail I quoted on LHR-LGW positioning flights on that site. To access that data go to the 'BA Trackers' section and select 'Route Tracker' for 'London Heathrow' to 'London Gatwick' for the appropriate months.

All the other data I gave has come from other sources. I have consolidated it in my own data base that purports to go back to October 1973 when the 'new' British Airways commenced operations and the first aircraft (B 707 G-AXXY) was rolled out in the new BA livery with 'British airways' titles.


Great, thanks for all this. Very useful :D
 
BAWLGW
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Wed Feb 08, 2017 7:26 am

SEZ
HKT
DPS
BKK
PNH
SNG
RGN
BOS
LAX
BKI
SSA - REC - FOR
KTM
CMB
JRO
SVD (once complete)

are all my best bets for future routes!
 
skipness1E
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:02 am

On the face of it LAS was a better fit for LGW as it's pretty leisure focussed but a lack of EU-LAS capacity meant LHR-LAS did very well (allegedly). Hence LGW-LAS was, as happened before, undermining expansion of LHR-LAX. So to grow EU-LAS they need more point to point from London and so LGW was axed. Wider view picture. Also not sure loads were "dire" at all.
As for BKK, well that would be an admission they're focussing on the leisure market and leaving business to Thai's 2 x daily LHR-BKK, not something BA would willingly do I think. Don't see BOS and LAX unleas they try and do to DY what they did to VS, capacity dump to try and er.....change the competitive landscape shall we say?
 
steve6666
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Wed Feb 08, 2017 4:04 pm

BAWLGW wrote:
SEZ
HKT
DPS
BKK
PNH
SNG
RGN
BOS
LAX
BKI
SSA - REC - FOR
KTM
CMB
JRO
SVD (once complete)

are all my best bets for future routes!


I hope you aren't a betting man then, or are extremely rich. Most of those are far too small as markets for O&D out of London (BKI, PNH, SGN (I presume you mean SGN not SNG), KTM, JRO, DPS) or would cannibalise existing routes (SEZ, BOS, LAX, SSA - anywhere in Brazil). I think BKK and HKT have a strong chance, BOS and LAX potentially may have a chance, but given the variety of equipment available at LHR, you'd think they'd just chuck another A380 on (as LAX certainly was 2xA380 at some point in the past) as a more effective way of generating cheap capacity in the back.
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yellowtail
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Wed Feb 08, 2017 4:19 pm

AviationRhys wrote:
I think that these routes could be possibilities for British Airways at Gatwick, feel free to add any more thoughts

LGW-BKK
LGW-HAV
LGW-MIA (more unlikely now with LGW-FLL being added)
LGW-PEK


a surprise would be LGW BZE. The number of UK troops (i.e cargo) and expats, along with the exploding tourism in BZE (18% growth in 2016) would make for an interesting business case
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GRJGeorge
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Wed Feb 08, 2017 5:03 pm

How many longhaul destinations are served from both LHR and LGW by BA?

For instance the reasoning behind them launching LGW-CPT flights, while operating double-daily LHR-CPT...in fact this month operating 2 more extra weekly flights LHR-CPT.
Would they have rather opted to fly more from LHR, but don't have the slots, or is LGW strategically for a different market?
There's talk that Thomas Cook might increase LGW-CPT to 4 weekly from next season...maybe BA also then? Maybe this was to put a spanner in Norwegian's plans for CPT?
 
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Wed Feb 08, 2017 5:08 pm

Interestingly, BA could do LGW to secondary cities within India, and probably do well enough with the current equipment being used.

Sure, these are rather long-haul - however with suitable connections to other UK destinations, and LGW's unique transfer set-up - BA could expand their Indian footprint, and take on some long-haul (as there is no suitable Indian partner at this time). Admittedly, there is the calculated risk of cannibalizing off of the LHR-India routes (BOM, HYD, DEL, MAA, BLR), and affecting QR's loads.

CCU was dropped, and perhaps could be supported on the fact that it would bypass the ME3, operate at lower costs and more appropriately handle the lower yielding traffic.

If BA were to consider shutting out LCC long-haul from taking root on the India-UK markets (and in such a move, the ME3, unless invested in the venture - would loose out) - the considerations then narrow to U.K. based, and Indian based carriers. On the Indian side, local competition is fierce - and it could be argued (based on the steps of the Indian government) that further consolidation is necessary (which will allow at least one of the remaining players to 'fatten' enough to make the jump to long-haul, at their already LCC costs). On the U.K. side, there already is one in DY.

From that perspective, I can see DY easily 'hunting' for new locations, and seeing those opportunities open up. As is, adding an Indian city on DY, opens that city to the possibility of perhaps serving all of DY's other hubs (and not such an odd notion, considering how DY's maturation at FLL. FLL grew to access BCN, CPH, LGW, OSL, CDG and ARN - albeit at lower than daily frequencies - but with growth potential and great market performance to gauge where and how to expand).

Combining both cases - we see how BA must now consider LHR. Do you allow DY to grow, and hit your loads at LHR (because DY would logically go after DEL and BOM first, and likely find it rich enough to go daily), and then watch them launch less than daily services to MAA, BLR, HYD, CCU, AMD and watch those grow? Or, do you go after the marketshare and watch the markets grow, if only to stave off DY's entry into India? My premise here is that the ME3 made significant cross-roads into the India-U.K. market (by transiting via their hubs). Newer technology, and lower costs can make these market decently profitable again, especially if given the advantage of non-stop, less than weekly, or even perhaps access to other markets (which is where DY would do well).

VS is tied to DL's efforts at the moment (and profitably so), and 9W's ties to the AF/KLM/DL Trans-Atlantic JV will provide them with a fantastic Indian partner. I can see there being less incentive for VS to try secondary India, for that reason, and 9W's close relationship to EY provides even less incentive to fly West of AUH. So, I'll hold their entry into the market (LGW-India) as secondary, and only if the market proved rich enough to surpass the already high-yielding markets that DL's partnership will provide via LHR, and MAN to the U.S. In so much, I see them coming in late, if at all.

I hesitated to discuss Secondary China, because the competition would be from local carriers (and the market there is significantly different from India. There are established, well advantaged local carriers, already operating). Further into South-East Asia, the competition thickens. It's only a matter of time before Scoot shows force in Europe, and AirAsiaX will soon return. Pakistan - due to security concerns is omitted, but if improved could also be fertile ground. I see PIA (or the new entity) taking on those routes, first. The further West, the closer into A23x/737 territory you get to LGW (and the threat that EasyJet or Ryanair enter). So, India seems within a decent band of places to put some roots. A decently growing GDP is a decent grounds for investment.

Central, and Southern Africa would also be nice - however outside of South Africa (where they have Comair to handle domestic connections, and the long-haul already 'on lock'), there is little incentive to change the current, lucrative profile already in place. Can someone speak to other African destinations that would perhaps better be served, by LGW (thus not benefiting from the connections of LHR, and catering more to O/D)?
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Wed Feb 08, 2017 5:29 pm

That is an interesting post. lots of avenues to explore. A few others have commented that BA are struggling to get the right aircraft to expand ops, given the wallet IAG has you have to wonder why.
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vv701
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:54 pm

I am somewhat dubious about all these suggestions that BA might look east for new destinations. Why? Well their last two excursions into this area have not been very successful.

They launched a much trumpeted LHR-CTU service on 22 September 2013, switched to the 787 on this route on 4 May 2014 and then suspended the service on 13 January this year.

The extension of the LGW-MLE service to CMB occurred on 14 April 2013. After less than two years this extension was suspended on 27 March 2015. Moreover the LHR-MLE service itself was year round until the same date. At that time Summer Season flights were suspended. This may well have been to free up equipment for another (summer) route. But in itself that would suggest that the summer-time flights to Male were not that successful.
 
Cunard
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Thu Feb 09, 2017 3:46 am

Geoff1947 wrote:
Flying to PTY in April, had hoped the rumoured direct flight from LGW would have started. Going via MAD instead. Is LGW to PTY still a possibility ?


There was never a possibility of a LGW to PTY as its news to me and it probably is to other A.netters! Are you sure it's not a rumour started by you as I can assure you that BA have never publicly stated an interest in flying the route nor have I seen any links to suggest otherwise.
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:16 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
Flying to PTY in April, had hoped the rumoured direct flight from LGW would have started. Going via MAD instead. Is LGW to PTY still a possibility ?
Rumour in PTY was that since BA neither had aircraft nor slots available for PTY flights out of LHR that LGW would get PTY flights, even if LGW traffic is more leisure-focus than LHR.
PTY and CM are desperate for a LON non-stop flight so even LGW (or a BA wide-body from its newest STN base) w/CM code-share would be welcome but IB is the one calling the shoots on any BA Latin American new destination and so far it's more likely IB will see any BA LON flight to PTY as taking traffic from its MAD-PTY flight.
Too bad IB and BA don't work like KL and AF when it comes to PTY.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
seansasLCY
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:37 pm

vv701 wrote:
I am somewhat dubious about all these suggestions that BA might look east for new destinations. Why? Well their last two excursions into this area have not been very successful.

They launched a much trumpeted LHR-CTU service on 22 September 2013, switched to the 787 on this route on 4 May 2014 and then suspended the service on 13 January this year.

The extension of the LGW-MLE service to CMB occurred on 14 April 2013. After less than two years this extension was suspended on 27 March 2015. Moreover the LHR-MLE service itself was year round until the same date. At that time Summer Season flights were suspended. This may well have been to free up equipment for another (summer) route. But in itself that would suggest that the summer-time flights to Male were not that successful.


They have also launched ICN and KUL in this period. Both are still running.
 
DY789
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:18 pm

This is a great topic, and as previously stated, many avenues to explore.

Just stepping away from the Long Haul angle a second, are BA looking to expand within Europe and N. Africa from Gatwick, or have they reached their full complement of A320 aircraft? (From Gatwick of course.)

Now to Long Haul, firstly, now they have moved to South Terminal, will this aid or potentially hinder their expansion? Personally, I think this will hinder as they now live under the same roof as DY.

Also, the one area of expansion I could have imagined BA exploring in to is possibly DXB from LGW. If EK can sustain 3x A380's then surely BA can make a service work - even if not daily...however, Thomson have already moved in on that one. It does seem hard to see where they can possibly expand to now.One destination I would absolutely adore to see is a direct connection to HNL. Would most likely need a 787-9 though to do this!
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:07 pm

As much as I would like to see new eastbound long-haul destinations from BA at LGW, most of the new additions have all been westbound (Oakland, Fort Lauderdale, San Jose, Lima).

I think the indirect competition eastbound is too great.
 
AviationRhys
Topic Author
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:27 pm

DY789 wrote:
This is a great topic, and as previously stated, many avenues to explore.

Just stepping away from the Long Haul angle a second, are BA looking to expand within Europe and N. Africa from Gatwick, or have they reached their full complement of A320 aircraft? (From Gatwick of course.)

Now to Long Haul, firstly, now they have moved to South Terminal, will this aid or potentially hinder their expansion? Personally, I think this will hinder as they now live under the same roof as DY.

Also, the one area of expansion I could have imagined BA exploring in to is possibly DXB from LGW. If EK can sustain 3x A380's then surely BA can make a service work - even if not daily...however, Thomson have already moved in on that one. It does seem hard to see where they can possibly expand to now.One destination I would absolutely adore to see is a direct connection to HNL. Would most likely need a 787-9 though to do this!



I always thought the same that BA could add LGW-DXB maybe four time weekly with the 777, they can make 3 daily flights from LHR work against all ME3 carriers. An increasing number of Brits are taking holidays to Dubai also so I think it would do well for the BA Holidays divison.
 
azz767
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Re: BA Long Haul - Gatwick

Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:08 am

The problem for LGW, and MAN for that matter as there's rumours BA are re-considering MAN, is that the perfect sized a/c for starting new routes are the new 787's which will never leave LHR until they like the 772's now, are older and dont have to recoup the investment on them. So BA have to be sure any new route launched can sustain a now very dense 772 from LGW and potentially MAN

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