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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:14 am

Taco2sDay wrote:
klm617 wrote:
beerbus wrote:
As someone who spent significant years at an Airline involved in the DTW market, and with Airport Authorities around the Ohio Valley, I can state that:

1. There is no " agenda" at DL against DTW. NW/DL have made significant capital investments in facilities, staff, and marketing to create the profit-generating operation they have there. There is no force within DL to rachet that investment down, or shift its assets elsewhere. To shift assets producing net profits in DTW to other markets would be a significant fiduciary failure on the part of DL Management.

2. The Wayne Count Airport Board does not, I REPEAT, does not have an agenda to prevent other carriers from entering DTW. The staff at Wayne County responsible for new entrants or new destinations will bust their tail to expand the airport's offerings, regardless of the carrier providing them. And I promise you they will work with anyone wanting to enter the market- regardless of what DL might think.

Face it- DTW is DL's hub and if someone tries to protect it, and they will retaliate, just as AA would do at DFW or CLT, or UA would do at ORD. It's an expensive proposition to enter someone else's HUB. It's a dog fight. When an OA came into our hub- we went to war. Entering DTW would be a tough road to hoe, just as it would be at DFW or CLT.

And lastly, most A.net posters seem to forgotten about connecting traffic. To make a new route successful in DTW, you have to consider not only the DEW between the potential city pair, you have to add-in the feed from outlying stations. If BA adds a flight to LHR, they are dependent upon local traffic. If DL adds a flight between DTW and LHR, they tap the local DEW PLUS the 1-2 passengers to LHR from each of the connecting cities in the bank that connects to the DTWLHR flight. Think SDF-DTW-LHR Those connections are what make the flight successful. DL has a powerful connecting base of upper midwest and ohio valley traffic built up via numerous historic NW connecting cities and the DL former CVG operation.

So unless a city pair has enough DEW's to produce enough profitable revenue without feed traffic, a financially driven (smart) carrier will NOT enter that market. A new international flight is a HUGE investment in equipment capital. Hence, foreign flag carriers will fly to ORD over DTW because the catchment traffic base is 2x as large. It has little to do with the Wayne County Airport Authority.


But here is the problem the more you pile on in Chicago the smaller the market gets so any new entrant into the Chicago market is actually competing for a lesser market share than it would in Detroit. You say the Chicago market is four times bigger than the Detroit market but yet has probably 10 to 20 times more international traffic so you do the math where does a new entrant have a better shot at having a bigger customer base Detroit would. Not only that according to your theory about hub carriers Chicago has two and there is no fear of new carriers entering that market. So if one new low cost carrier would enter the Detroit market with the 100% backing of the WCAA they have a much better chance of being successful at Detroit than they do at Chicago not having to fight for market share because they would own this market. I believe it's more of a ego thing saying our airline serves Chicago after all what would be the advantage of broadcasting that your airlines newest destination is Detroit even though you had the market to yourself there is no prestige in saying your airline serves Detroit and that's where the problem lies. As many times as Qatar said it was going to serve Detroit I wonder how aggressive the Airport authority rally was at landing this airline that was putting Detroit on blast as being a destination they were going to serve and they said it in a very matter a fact way.


Please accepy the fact that International Airlines want to serve a market with 10M people, multiple Fortune 500 companies, and no monopoly carrier

Here is a story about Detroit:



https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CDGO ... NYUl4Etkbc

Look at most dangerous cities. Gives an idea of what the rest of the country thinks. Huge population decline, high crime rate per 1,000 people. Makes Chicago look like a sunbelt city.



According to this list ATL is number 6 and it has the worlds busiest airport.
Last edited by klm617 on Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:16 am

klm617 wrote:
Taco2sDay wrote:
klm617 wrote:

But here is the problem the more you pile on in Chicago the smaller the market gets so any new entrant into the Chicago market is actually competing for a lesser market share than it would in Detroit. You say the Chicago market is four times bigger than the Detroit market but yet has probably 10 to 20 times more international traffic so you do the math where does a new entrant have a better shot at having a bigger customer base Detroit would. Not only that according to your theory about hub carriers Chicago has two and there is no fear of new carriers entering that market. So if one new low cost carrier would enter the Detroit market with the 100% backing of the WCAA they have a much better chance of being successful at Detroit than they do at Chicago not having to fight for market share because they would own this market. I believe it's more of a ego thing saying our airline serves Chicago after all what would be the advantage of broadcasting that your airlines newest destination is Detroit even though you had the market to yourself there is no prestige in saying your airline serves Detroit and that's where the problem lies. As many times as Qatar said it was going to serve Detroit I wonder how aggressive the Airport authority rally was at landing this airline that was putting Detroit on blast as being a destination they were going to serve and they said it in a very matter a fact way.


Please accepy the fact that International Airlines want to serve a market with 10M people, multiple Fortune 500 companies, and no monopoly carrier

Here is a story about Detroit:

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CDGO ... NYUl4Etkbc

Look at most dangerous cities. Gives an idea of what the rest of the country thinks. Huge population decline, high crime rate per 1,000 people. Makes Chicago look like a sunbelt city.


But you are all missing the point DTW does not serve Detroit for the most part it serves the region more than anything. The airport just shares it's name with a city that WAS in decay but it's user base is not from the city perse the greatest number of people who use DTW are from the surrounding cities so please post articles about Royal Oak, Birmingham, West Bloomfield, Novi and Shelby Township as this is a better representation of the market DTW serves. And no I am not going to accept that DTW gets over looked because it's not effectively marketed to get the service that it can sustain because people are to lazy to look up the real demographic of the people who use this airport and the potential it has.

It serves primarily the region of Southeast Michigan, whose largest population center is (by a long shot) Detroit's metro area.
Your statement is paramount to saying that DAM is a viable destination because the Druze part of Syria isn't in shambles
TLV, BRU, ZRH, CDG, FRA, EWR, JFK, DEN, SFO, AUS, RNO, SEA, YYC, YYZ, IAH, ATL, IAD, DCA, ORD, SJC, SNA
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:23 am

ASQ400 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Taco2sDay wrote:

Please accepy the fact that International Airlines want to serve a market with 10M people, multiple Fortune 500 companies, and no monopoly carrier

Here is a story about Detroit:

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CDGO ... NYUl4Etkbc

Look at most dangerous cities. Gives an idea of what the rest of the country thinks. Huge population decline, high crime rate per 1,000 people. Makes Chicago look like a sunbelt city.


But you are all missing the point DTW does not serve Detroit for the most part it serves the region more than anything. The airport just shares it's name with a city that WAS in decay but it's user base is not from the city perse the greatest number of people who use DTW are from the surrounding cities so please post articles about Royal Oak, Birmingham, West Bloomfield, Novi and Shelby Township as this is a better representation of the market DTW serves. And no I am not going to accept that DTW gets over looked because it's not effectively marketed to get the service that it can sustain because people are to lazy to look up the real demographic of the people who use this airport and the potential it has.

It serves primarily the region of Southeast Michigan, whose largest population center is (by a long shot) Detroit's metro area.
Your statement is paramount to saying that DAM is a viable destination because the Druze part of Syria isn't in shambles



That's not even remotely the same thing
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:26 am

klm617 wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

But you are all missing the point DTW does not serve Detroit for the most part it serves the region more than anything. The airport just shares it's name with a city that WAS in decay but it's user base is not from the city perse the greatest number of people who use DTW are from the surrounding cities so please post articles about Royal Oak, Birmingham, West Bloomfield, Novi and Shelby Township as this is a better representation of the market DTW serves. And no I am not going to accept that DTW gets over looked because it's not effectively marketed to get the service that it can sustain because people are to lazy to look up the real demographic of the people who use this airport and the potential it has.

It serves primarily the region of Southeast Michigan, whose largest population center is (by a long shot) Detroit's metro area.
Your statement is paramount to saying that DAM is a viable destination because the Druze part of Syria isn't in shambles



That's not even remotely the same thing

Well DAM as an airport serves the south of Syria, and the wartorn city of Damascus is the main part of that area. Detroit isn't a warzone, but serving an esoteric route from DTW is about as viable as serving a primary one from DAM.
TLV, BRU, ZRH, CDG, FRA, EWR, JFK, DEN, SFO, AUS, RNO, SEA, YYC, YYZ, IAH, ATL, IAD, DCA, ORD, SJC, SNA
 
Taco2sDay
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:27 am

Read the story about "Detroit crime", my links aren't working from my tablet.

Detroit population went from 4th largest at 1.8M to under 700K today. Crime per 1,000 people is insane. And your friends in Flint were 2nd worst city behind Detroit. These are the facts.
 
cvgComair
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:41 am

ASQ400 wrote:
Then explain why Atlanta has Emirates. Surely it's a secret conspiracy between Delta, ME3, and the WCAA to keep airfares high.

Since when did Emirates serve Atlanta?
 
michman
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:02 am

Taco2sDay wrote:
Read the story about "Detroit crime", my links aren't working from my tablet.

Detroit population went from 4th largest at 1.8M to under 700K today. Crime per 1,000 people is insane. And your friends in Flint were 2nd worst city behind Detroit. These are the facts.


DTW's catchment is in the area of 5M people. Here's simple math problem, what percentage of 5M is 700K? Have you ever been here? Do you know anything about about the area other than what you've read about Detroit?
 
cvgComair
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:02 am

DTW is the 18 largest airport in the US and has the 14th largest MSA. Since NYC has 3 airports but 1 MSA, it seems DTW has the right level of service for its population size. Look at PHX, it has almost no international service despite having a large corporate presence and a similar population to Detroit. It is overshadowed by Los Angeles in the same way that Detroit is overshadowed by Chicago. IMO, having service to Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt, Toronto, Seoul, Shanghai, Montreal, Tokyo, London, Cancun, Beijing, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Rome, Nagoya, Amman, Monterrey, and Ottawa is pretty good. There are many 2-3 million MSA cities without TATL service, let alone flights to Mexico, South America, and Asia!

Despite what some users want to claim, DL is fully committed to DTW, sure it is no ATL nor has the media focus of LAX/SEA/NYC, but is vital to maintain a network in the midwest, is DL's main gateway to Asia, and is a major gateway to Europe.

There is no doubt there is a public perception that Detroit is a "crime-filled" city, but it is no worse than any other city. There are parts of cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and even my hometown Cincinnati that are just as bad as parts of Detroit. Is Detroit a booming city that is expanding, no, and the lack of international expansion shows that this is the case. There is no doubt that Detroit is statistically a poorer and less economically strong city, but that does not mean there is not significant corporate and leisure demand.
Last edited by cvgComair on Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Taco2sDay
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:07 am

Here is the link:

These are America's worst cities for crime, employment, housing costs

http://www.wfaa.com/news/nation-world/t ... /451891806

1. Detroit

> Population: 677,124
> Median home value: $42,600
> Poverty rate: 39.8%
> Pct. with at least a bachelor’s degree: 14.2%

Once the fourth largest city by population and wealthiest by income per capita, Detroit’s economic decline over the past several decades may be the largest of any U.S. city. Detroit’s population is approximately one-third of what it was at its 1950 peak of 1.8 million people, and it continues to decline at a near nation-leading pace. The number people living in Detroit fell 19% over the past 10 years to just 677,124 today, the second largest population decline of any large city over that period. The typical Detroit household earns just $25,980 a year, less than half the $55,755 national median household income.

There were 1,760 violent crimes reported per 100,000 Detroit residents in 2015, the second highest violent crime rate of any U.S. city. Crime and overall urban decay have depressed real estate prices in the city to a fraction of their former value. The typical occupied home in Detroit is worth just $42,600, the lowest median home value of any city other than nearby Flint.

Here is Flint:

3. Flint, Mich.

> Population: 98,297
> Median home value: $25,900
> Poverty rate: 40.8%
> Pct. with at least a bachelor’s degree: 11.8%

Like many other rust belt cities, Flint’s downward spiral is closely tied to the decline of the American manufacturing industry. General Motors once provided some 30,000 at its Flint-based Buick manufacturing plant, all of which are now gone. Recently, the city was at the center of national attention when, in 2015, the Environmental Protection Agency announced the presence of dangerously high levels of lead in Flint’s public water.

A lack of reliable municipal services and the gutting of the city’s economic backbone has had major consequences. The typical Flint household earns only $25,342 a year, less than half the nationwide median income and the second lowest in the Great Lakes region. Additionally, the city’s 40.8% poverty rate is the highest in the nation. In the last 10 years, Flint’s population has declined by 12.2%, one of the steepest declines of any U.S. city.

Another Midwest city:

4. St. Louis

> Population: 315,685
> Median home value: $130,800
> Poverty rate: 24.9%
> Pct. with at least a bachelor’s degree: 34.7%

St. Louis is representative of the economic decline that afflicted many large industrial cities over the latter part of the 20th century. Decades of manufacturing decline, white flight, and exclusionary zoning in St. Louis have led to some of the worst urban decay, racial segregation, and income inequality of any major city today. Some 24.9% of St. Louis residents live in poverty, far more than the 14.7% national figure. St. Louis has struggled with a high crime rate since the 1960s and today has the highest violent crime rate of any U.S. city. There were 1,817 violent crimes reported per 100,000 St. Louis residents in 2015, nearly five times the national rate.

Many of the economic problems in St. Louis are tied to the city’s rapid population decline. The city’s population is less than half of what it was during its 1950 peak of 860,000 people, and it continues to decline today. While the U.S. population grew 11.5% over the last 10 years, the number of residents in St. Louis fell 5.4%.

Another complaint about ORD:

6. Milwaukee

> Population: 600,154
> Median home value: $114,000
> Poverty rate: 26.8%
> Pct. with at least a bachelor’s degree: 23.9%

Some 26.8% of Milwaukee residents live in poverty, the highest poverty rate of any city in the state and well above the 14.7% U.S. poverty rate. The city also has the lowest median household income, at $37,495 a year, and second lowest unemployment rate, at 6.7%, in the state.

Economically stressed areas often struggle with higher rates of violent crime, and Milwaukee is no exception. There were 1,596 violent crimes for every 100,000 city residents in 2015, more than triple the violent crime rate in the next most dangerous Wisconsin city and the sixth-highest violent crime rate of U.S. cities. Due in part to the city’s high crime rate, Milwaukee was one of a handful of U.S. cities

http://www.wfaa.com/news/nation-world/t ... /451891806
 
Taco2sDay
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:10 am

cvgComair wrote:
DTW is the 18 largest airport in the US and has the 14th largest MSA. Since NYC has 3 airports but 1 MSA, it seems DTW has the right level of service for its population size. Look at PHX, it has almost no international service despite having a large corporate presence and a similar population to Detroit. It is overshadowed by Los Angeles in the same way that Detroit is overshadowed by Chicago. IMO, having service to Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt, Toronto, Seoul, Shanghai, Montreal, Tokyo, London, Cancun, Beijing, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Rome, Nagoya, Amman, Monterrey, and Ottawa is pretty good. There are many 2-3 million MSA cities without TATL service, let alone flights to Mexico, South America, and Asia!

Despite what some users want to claim, DL is fully committed to DTW, sure it is no ATL nor has the media focus of LAX/SEA/NYC, but is vital to maintain a network in the midwest, is DL's main gateway to Asia, and is a major gateway to Europe.


I agree with you, but the DTW fanclub will not accept reality. Since ORD is 250 miles away (or less), the entitled DTW fanclub thinks they deserve at least that level of service as it is "less congested," but we don't care about business economics.
 
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:53 am

Taco2sDay wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
DTW is the 18 largest airport in the US and has the 14th largest MSA. Since NYC has 3 airports but 1 MSA, it seems DTW has the right level of service for its population size. Look at PHX, it has almost no international service despite having a large corporate presence and a similar population to Detroit. It is overshadowed by Los Angeles in the same way that Detroit is overshadowed by Chicago. IMO, having service to Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt, Toronto, Seoul, Shanghai, Montreal, Tokyo, London, Cancun, Beijing, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Rome, Nagoya, Amman, Monterrey, and Ottawa is pretty good. There are many 2-3 million MSA cities without TATL service, let alone flights to Mexico, South America, and Asia!

Despite what some users want to claim, DL is fully committed to DTW, sure it is no ATL nor has the media focus of LAX/SEA/NYC, but is vital to maintain a network in the midwest, is DL's main gateway to Asia, and is a major gateway to Europe.


I agree with you, but the DTW fanclub will not accept reality. Since ORD is 250 miles away (or less), the entitled DTW fanclub thinks they deserve at least that level of service as it is "less congested," but we don't care about business economics.



No we don't think we deserve the same level of service as ORD but we don't deserve to be black balled either. Take away Delta and all we have is LH to FRA and RJ AMM far less than MSP, DEN and many others when you subtract Delta from the equation and on par with cites like CLT .
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
ASQ400
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:11 am

klm617 wrote:
Taco2sDay wrote:
cvgComair wrote:
DTW is the 18 largest airport in the US and has the 14th largest MSA. Since NYC has 3 airports but 1 MSA, it seems DTW has the right level of service for its population size. Look at PHX, it has almost no international service despite having a large corporate presence and a similar population to Detroit. It is overshadowed by Los Angeles in the same way that Detroit is overshadowed by Chicago. IMO, having service to Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt, Toronto, Seoul, Shanghai, Montreal, Tokyo, London, Cancun, Beijing, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Rome, Nagoya, Amman, Monterrey, and Ottawa is pretty good. There are many 2-3 million MSA cities without TATL service, let alone flights to Mexico, South America, and Asia!

Despite what some users want to claim, DL is fully committed to DTW, sure it is no ATL nor has the media focus of LAX/SEA/NYC, but is vital to maintain a network in the midwest, is DL's main gateway to Asia, and is a major gateway to Europe.


I agree with you, but the DTW fanclub will not accept reality. Since ORD is 250 miles away (or less), the entitled DTW fanclub thinks they deserve at least that level of service as it is "less congested," but we don't care about business economics.



No we don't think we deserve the same level of service as ORD but we don't deserve to be black balled either. Take away Delta and all we have is LH to FRA and RJ AMM far less than MSP, DEN and many others when you subtract Delta from the equation and on par with cites like CLT .

1. Delta isn't leaving anytime soon
2. DEN gets UA's JV carriers instead of UA itself, DTW gets DL and not the partners. If you think KL, AF, CZ, MU and KE will fill DL's capacity if DL were to leave, you're wrong.
3. You're nowhere near blackballed. PHX is much less well-connected than DTW, and you can thank Delta for that
4. On par with CLT sounds like a justifiable level of service for DTW. Although Charlotte's service area is more affluent, DTW carries more connections
5. You keep comparing DTW to ATL. ATL is meant as a megahub, like DFW is for AA. Maybe compare DTW to MSP for a just comparison.
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 3:09 am

iFlyDTW wrote:
Why cut it down to only 1 daily flight? At that point you're just asking for BA to investigate and possibly start the route within a year? I know you work for Delta but in all due respect this would benefit the rest of us more than hurt because you know well that Delta is would probably go back to twice daily and bring Virgin back to compete with BA. Youre better off at keeping the market at 10 weekly on 767-300s because that's the perfect gauge for Delta, but for the rest of us we need another carrier.
If you cut it down to 1x daily on a 332 you benefit from lower fares, a larger aircraft and an opportunity to time the flight to meet O&D demand, so if you cut LHR down to 1x daily on a 332 fares would drop and that could possibly increase the market because let's face it, historical data shows that ever since the recession, LON is a dying international market because that's when fares rose and too much frequency was placed in the market. I actually wished AMS were cut to 3 in the winter because they could do 2x 333 and 1x 332 as opposed to 3x 332 and 1x 333. GRU was upgauged to a 332 in turn of frequency, and fares linger around $1K compared to nearly 2K previously. Markets like PEK, FRA, MEX and CDG that continue to grow warrant increased seats because airlines are trying to match seats with PDEW, which is why LH is flying a 744 this summer and beginning again in March next year. I do though see EI adding DUB on a 757 in the next 5 years because that market has been increasing pretty well. Same with BCN, the only issue is DL wont do Spain from DTW so there's no real solution, DUS, STR, TLV, and BCN may have to be those markets that won't ever be served because either the airline there doesn't serve other major US airports or the airline is in too bad of an economical state, trust me I wouldn't want AB flying to DUS knowing they may get bought out or go under, but that's where an LCC comes into play. DY isn't likely since they have no intentions of DTW, so really that leaves WW and FI which IMO I'd rather see WW at DTW than FI, I think WW can do good things for people that use DTW.
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blockski
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:00 pm

klm617 wrote:
But here is the problem the more you pile on in Chicago the smaller the market gets so any new entrant into the Chicago market is actually competing for a lesser market share than it would in Detroit. You say the Chicago market is four times bigger than the Detroit market but yet has probably 10 to 20 times more international traffic so you do the math where does a new entrant have a better shot at having a bigger customer base Detroit would.


2016 International Gateways report from the FAA:
https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... r-2016.pdf

ORD: 11,917,782 international passengers
DTW: 3,263,216 international passengers.

Or, Chicago has about 3.5x as many international passengers as Detroit.

So, yeah - the market is about four times as big.
 
hjulicher
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:02 pm

Detroit is overshadowed by Chicago and Toronto in North America, therefore service to DTW has to be dedicated for the local industry. Additionally, DL with their strong and relatively large HUB can funnel traffic. DTW has a good amount of service and is unlikely to grow in variety from what it has today except for a handful of destinations which align with its target objective.

Detroit is well-served and doesn't strike me as having lack of service. However, the breadth of airline choice is lacking in Detroit which leads to high prices and reduced demand.

Regular services:
Europe (So17): 79 flights per week.
FRA 14w A332/B744
MUC 7w B763
AMS 27w A332/A333
CDG 14w A333/A343
FCO 7w A333
LHR 10w B763

Middle East (So17:) 2 flights per week
AMM 2w B788

Asia (So17) 32 flights per week.
NRT 7w B744
ICN 7w B744
PEK 7w A332
PVG 7w B744
NGO w5w A332

Americas (So17) 125 flights per week
MEX 14w B752/B738
MTY 14w A319/E170
CUN 9w A319/A320
MBJ 1w A320
PUJ 2w A320
GRU 3w B763
YYZ 49w mixed ops
YUL 22w CR7/CR9
YOW 11w CR2
YVR 2w A320

I believe that DTW will see more cities and more frequencies come online to existing destinations within the next two years. I suppose additional frequencies on LHR and MUC. I also suspect we will see KEF, DUB, MAN and perhaps MXP in Europe, and ICN and HKG in Asia.

LH 747 service is to return next summer (130% capacity increase in Premium and 20% increase in Economy vs A343 configuration)

Metro Detroit has been growing in terms of job growth at pace faster than the rest of the country. This of course is all relative in that 2008-2010 brought a massive recession so the rates of growth and the amplitude of the booms and busts seem to be stronger than in other parts of the country. However, Detroit metro has surpassed it's peak in 2007 and thus is growing despite maintaining its population base. This effectively means that GDP per capita has increased. According to the BEA, Metro Detroit GDP is going to surpass $250B USD this year. https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/region ... ro0916.pdf
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Fri Jul 07, 2017 8:33 pm

hjulicher wrote:
Detroit is overshadowed by Chicago and Toronto in North America, therefore service to DTW has to be dedicated for the local industry. Additionally, DL with their strong and relatively large HUB can funnel traffic. DTW has a good amount of service and is unlikely to grow in variety from what it has today except for a handful of destinations which align with its target objective.

Detroit is well-served and doesn't strike me as having lack of service. However, the breadth of airline choice is lacking in Detroit which leads to high prices and reduced demand.

Regular services:
Europe (So17): 79 flights per week.
FRA 14w A332/B744
MUC 7w B763
AMS 27w A332/A333
CDG 14w A333/A343
FCO 7w A333
LHR 10w B763

Middle East (So17:) 2 flights per week
AMM 2w B788

Asia (So17) 32 flights per week.
NRT 7w B744
ICN 7w B744
PEK 7w A332
PVG 7w B744
NGO w5w A332

Americas (So17) 125 flights per week
MEX 14w B752/B738
MTY 14w A319/E170
CUN 9w A319/A320
MBJ 1w A320
PUJ 2w A320
GRU 3w B763
YYZ 49w mixed ops
YUL 22w CR7/CR9
YOW 11w CR2
YVR 2w A320

I believe that DTW will see more cities and more frequencies come online to existing destinations within the next two years. I suppose additional frequencies on LHR and MUC. I also suspect we will see KEF, DUB, MAN and perhaps MXP in Europe, and ICN and HKG in Asia.

LH 747 service is to return next summer (130% capacity increase in Premium and 20% increase in Economy vs A343 configuration)

Metro Detroit has been growing in terms of job growth at pace faster than the rest of the country. This of course is all relative in that 2008-2010 brought a massive recession so the rates of growth and the amplitude of the booms and busts seem to be stronger than in other parts of the country. However, Detroit metro has surpassed it's peak in 2007 and thus is growing despite maintaining its population base. This effectively means that GDP per capita has increased. According to the BEA, Metro Detroit GDP is going to surpass $250B USD this year. https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/region ... ro0916.pdf


But with higher than average prices in this market compared to other airports you have to admit that this airport does lack competitive capacity to get in line with the fares that are charged from airports like ORD, BOS and the like fare should be on par and not higher so the Detroit market can subsidize the large markets and the low fares that are charged there do to the higher amount a capacity an competition. So with that being said Detroit is underserved and lacks adequate competition to keep fares in line with other major airports. To get a more accurate picture of how Detroit is underserved to artificially keep prices high you need to take a route like LAX to DTW, ORD and ATL and see how many seats there are in each market per O/D passenger to get the full picture and then you will see how Detroit lags way behind as far as O/D passengers per seat to see the choke hold that is in this market to keep fares higher. I have no problem with ORD or Atlanta having more flights but charge a comparable fare as you do in those markets not a significantly higher fare to help pay for the lower yields you are getting out of ORD,LGA,BOS,ATL and others
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 5:13 pm

Looks like AUS will have more seats to London next year than DTW, thoughts?
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:48 pm

Some quick thoughts on DL's preliminary early fall schedule (which will change, of course):
- DL continues its trend of offering more capacity at DTW during the fall months than it did so during peak summer months; DL clearly utilizes DTW to chase high-yielding business traffic.
- 201 peak-day mainline departures are scheduled, the most DL's ever offered at DTW. For comparison sake, DL scheduled 147 peak-day mainline departures summer 2012.
- Unsurprisingly, the growth in mainline movements comes from the MD-88, as the aircraft are replaced at ATL with 739/321. Overall, nearly half of DTW's mainline movements will be on the 717, MD-88 and MD-90 -- a plus if you enjoy 2x3 seating or classic MD jets.
- DL will surpass the capacity offered by NW fall 2008, its last as an independent carrier.
- Peak-day 50-seat jets departures will dwindle to 111, the fewest offered nearly 14 years.
- More spokes are receiving mainline, including SYR & IAD.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:58 pm

compensateme wrote:
Some quick thoughts on DL's preliminary early fall schedule (which will change, of course):
- DL continues its trend of offering more capacity at DTW during the fall months than it did so during peak summer months; DL clearly utilizes DTW to chase high-yielding business traffic.
- 201 peak-day mainline departures are scheduled, the most DL's ever offered at DTW. For comparison sake, DL scheduled 147 peak-day mainline departures summer 2012.
- Unsurprisingly, the growth in mainline movements comes from the MD-88, as the aircraft are replaced at ATL with 739/321. Overall, nearly half of DTW's mainline movements will be on the 717, MD-88 and MD-90 -- a plus if you enjoy 2x3 seating or classic MD jets.
- DL will surpass the capacity offered by NW fall 2008, its last as an independent carrier.
- Peak-day 50-seat jets departures will dwindle to 111, the fewest offered nearly 14 years.
- More spokes are receiving mainline, including SYR & IAD.

Nice to see the increases in mainline, I am looking forward to being on the 717 instead of a CRJ-200 for CVG-DTW. Do you know what % capacity DL will be up compared to fall 2008?
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:35 pm

compensateme wrote:
Some quick thoughts on DL's preliminary early fall schedule (which will change, of course):
- DL continues its trend of offering more capacity at DTW during the fall months than it did so during peak summer months; DL clearly utilizes DTW to chase high-yielding business traffic.
- 201 peak-day mainline departures are scheduled, the most DL's ever offered at DTW. For comparison sake, DL scheduled 147 peak-day mainline departures summer 2012.
- Unsurprisingly, the growth in mainline movements comes from the MD-88, as the aircraft are replaced at ATL with 739/321. Overall, nearly half of DTW's mainline movements will be on the 717, MD-88 and MD-90 -- a plus if you enjoy 2x3 seating or classic MD jets.
- DL will surpass the capacity offered by NW fall 2008, its last as an independent carrier.
- Peak-day 50-seat jets departures will dwindle to 111, the fewest offered nearly 14 years.
- More spokes are receiving mainline, including SYR & IAD.


Thanks for the update. Very informative.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:37 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Looks like AUS will have more seats to London next year than DTW, thoughts?



Kind of puts everything into perspective doesn't it. Major hub for Delta and it has less capacity to London than a second tier market like AUS. Just goes to show you how much Delta is choking capacity in the market to artificially inflate prices.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:38 pm

Will Detroit London go back to double daily when Delta ends the summer only Portland London flight.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:47 pm

klm617 wrote:
Will Detroit London go back to double daily when Delta ends the summer only Portland London flight.
Yes but it's off season travel to LHR from DTW.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:14 pm

compensateme wrote:
- Peak-day 50-seat jets departures will dwindle to 111, the fewest offered nearly 14 years.
- More spokes are receiving mainline, including SYR & IAD.


I hope to see Delta do more of this at DTW. It still seems like it sees a good share of CRJ/50 seaters, more mainline or even larger RJ's there would be a plus. Example - my hometown market of Cedar Rapids sees 4 CRJ's a day to DTW while DL sends the 717 to ATL as well as the CR9. United sends mainline to Denver and soon to Chicago as well as large RJ's. AA large RJ's to its hubs in DFW/CLT/ORD. Hopefully the trend of larger planes at Detroit will be a plus.

Personally I love going through DTW over ORD any day, the experience is so much nicer and its a beautiful facility.

And for those trying to say Detroit is dwindling, the city itself maybe but look up Oakland County Michigan which is adjacent and forms the northern suburbs of Detroit. 1.2 million people alone and one of the wealthiest counties in the country. Many of the suburbs in Wayne County also are prosperous, and Ann Arbor to the west as well with the huge U of M.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:39 pm

compensateme wrote:
Some quick thoughts on DL's preliminary early fall schedule (which will change, of course):
- DL continues its trend of offering more capacity at DTW during the fall months than it did so during peak summer months; DL clearly utilizes DTW to chase high-yielding business traffic.
- 201 peak-day mainline departures are scheduled, the most DL's ever offered at DTW. For comparison sake, DL scheduled 147 peak-day mainline departures summer 2012.
- Unsurprisingly, the growth in mainline movements comes from the MD-88, as the aircraft are replaced at ATL with 739/321. Overall, nearly half of DTW's mainline movements will be on the 717, MD-88 and MD-90 -- a plus if you enjoy 2x3 seating or classic MD jets.
- DL will surpass the capacity offered by NW fall 2008, its last as an independent carrier.
- Peak-day 50-seat jets departures will dwindle to 111, the fewest offered nearly 14 years.
- More spokes are receiving mainline, including SYR & IAD.


Thanks for the update! When you say there are capacity increases, do you mean more departures or more overall seats or both?

I did a quick look at DL's autumn schedule on a single Thursday from DTW to long-haul west coast destinations (SEA/PDX/SFO/LAX/SNA/SAN/PHX/LAS). It was interesting to find that all these flights are operated by narrow-body Boeing aircraft (737/757 variants) Nary an airbus to be seen. No 767 either. I wonder why they have gone to all Boeing to the West Coast?
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:45 pm

Please respect other users. It's not necessary to attack or belittle other users even if you don't agree with them — just ignore it rather than post disrespectful comments.

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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 2:36 am

compensateme wrote:
Some quick thoughts on DL's preliminary early fall schedule (which will change, of course):
- DL continues its trend of offering more capacity at DTW during the fall months than it did so during peak summer months; DL clearly utilizes DTW to chase high-yielding business traffic.
- 201 peak-day mainline departures are scheduled, the most DL's ever offered at DTW. For comparison sake, DL scheduled 147 peak-day mainline departures summer 2012.
- Unsurprisingly, the growth in mainline movements comes from the MD-88, as the aircraft are replaced at ATL with 739/321. Overall, nearly half of DTW's mainline movements will be on the 717, MD-88 and MD-90 -- a plus if you enjoy 2x3 seating or classic MD jets.
- DL will surpass the capacity offered by NW fall 2008, its last as an independent carrier.
- Peak-day 50-seat jets departures will dwindle to 111, the fewest offered nearly 14 years.
- More spokes are receiving mainline, including SYR & IAD.



Some how I find that hard to believe considering the amount of destinations that have been cut in this market. In 2008 the merger was already announced so Delta was already scaling back the NWA operations to bring them in line with Delta's vision of how the combined network would look. I think you really need to go back to 2007 to get a true indication of how much service has fallen off in the Detroit market. Even more telling to get back to the figure you're talking about it took nine years CVG in it's heyday was larger than Detroit is now. I think positive indicators in this market is when we see more destinations added there are still no markets that favor a connection over Detroit rather than another hub in the Delta network which again says a lot about how Delta views Detroit in it's network.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 2:57 am

klm617 wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Some quick thoughts on DL's preliminary early fall schedule (which will change, of course):
- DL continues its trend of offering more capacity at DTW during the fall months than it did so during peak summer months; DL clearly utilizes DTW to chase high-yielding business traffic.
- 201 peak-day mainline departures are scheduled, the most DL's ever offered at DTW. For comparison sake, DL scheduled 147 peak-day mainline departures summer 2012.
- Unsurprisingly, the growth in mainline movements comes from the MD-88, as the aircraft are replaced at ATL with 739/321. Overall, nearly half of DTW's mainline movements will be on the 717, MD-88 and MD-90 -- a plus if you enjoy 2x3 seating or classic MD jets.
- DL will surpass the capacity offered by NW fall 2008, its last as an independent carrier.
- Peak-day 50-seat jets departures will dwindle to 111, the fewest offered nearly 14 years.
- More spokes are receiving mainline, including SYR & IAD.



Some how I find that hard to believe considering the amount of destinations that have been cut in this market. In 2008 the merger was already announced so Delta was already scaling back the NWA operations to bring them in line with Delta's vision of how the combined network would look. I think you really need to go back to 2007 to get a true indication of how much service has fallen off in the Detroit market. Even more telling to get back to the figure you're talking about it took nine years CVG in it's heyday was larger than Detroit is now. I think positive indicators in this market is when we see more destinations added there are still no markets that favor a connection over Detroit rather than another hub in the Delta network which again says a lot about how Delta views Detroit in it's network.

Those numbers quoted are hard figures. Numbers don't lie.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:45 am

ASQ400 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Some quick thoughts on DL's preliminary early fall schedule (which will change, of course):
- DL continues its trend of offering more capacity at DTW during the fall months than it did so during peak summer months; DL clearly utilizes DTW to chase high-yielding business traffic.
- 201 peak-day mainline departures are scheduled, the most DL's ever offered at DTW. For comparison sake, DL scheduled 147 peak-day mainline departures summer 2012.
- Unsurprisingly, the growth in mainline movements comes from the MD-88, as the aircraft are replaced at ATL with 739/321. Overall, nearly half of DTW's mainline movements will be on the 717, MD-88 and MD-90 -- a plus if you enjoy 2x3 seating or classic MD jets.
- DL will surpass the capacity offered by NW fall 2008, its last as an independent carrier.
- Peak-day 50-seat jets departures will dwindle to 111, the fewest offered nearly 14 years.
- More spokes are receiving mainline, including SYR & IAD.



Some how I find that hard to believe considering the amount of destinations that have been cut in this market. In 2008 the merger was already announced so Delta was already scaling back the NWA operations to bring them in line with Delta's vision of how the combined network would look. I think you really need to go back to 2007 to get a true indication of how much service has fallen off in the Detroit market. Even more telling to get back to the figure you're talking about it took nine years CVG in it's heyday was larger than Detroit is now. I think positive indicators in this market is when we see more destinations added there are still no markets that favor a connection over Detroit rather than another hub in the Delta network which again says a lot about how Delta views Detroit in it's network.

Those numbers quoted are hard figures. Numbers don't lie.



Yes but one can put any spin on the numbers they want to paint the picture they want to paint. I think the numbers for 2007 are the best indicators to where Detroit was in the NWA days to where it is today with Delta. I'd rather ride an MD jet any day over that sardine can 737-800/900
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 2:44 pm

klm617 wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


Some how I find that hard to believe considering the amount of destinations that have been cut in this market. In 2008 the merger was already announced so Delta was already scaling back the NWA operations to bring them in line with Delta's vision of how the combined network would look. I think you really need to go back to 2007 to get a true indication of how much service has fallen off in the Detroit market. Even more telling to get back to the figure you're talking about it took nine years CVG in it's heyday was larger than Detroit is now. I think positive indicators in this market is when we see more destinations added there are still no markets that favor a connection over Detroit rather than another hub in the Delta network which again says a lot about how Delta views Detroit in it's network.

Those numbers quoted are hard figures. Numbers don't lie.



Yes but one can put any spin on the numbers they want to paint the picture they want to paint. I think the numbers for 2007 are the best indicators to where Detroit was in the NWA days to where it is today with Delta. I'd rather ride an MD jet any day over that sardine can 737-800/900

If the numbers say Detroit has more service, you can't say it has less.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 2:49 pm

ASQ400 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
Those numbers quoted are hard figures. Numbers don't lie.



Yes but one can put any spin on the numbers they want to paint the picture they want to paint. I think the numbers for 2007 are the best indicators to where Detroit was in the NWA days to where it is today with Delta. I'd rather ride an MD jet any day over that sardine can 737-800/900

If the numbers say Detroit has more service, you can't say it has less.


Compared to 2008 yes but how about compared to 2007 the last real true year NWA operated out of DTW without and Delta influence
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 3:01 pm

Either way it's clear that Delta's trend of upgauging aircraft (either to larger RJs or mainline) is happening (and has been) at DTW. DTW is an important hub in the DL network and I think we'll see more markets have a mainline frequency or two added. Total number of daily flights most likely will be down YOY but percentage of mainline and average gauge are probably up.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 3:05 pm

klm617 wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
klm617 wrote:


Yes but one can put any spin on the numbers they want to paint the picture they want to paint. I think the numbers for 2007 are the best indicators to where Detroit was in the NWA days to where it is today with Delta. I'd rather ride an MD jet any day over that sardine can 737-800/900

If the numbers say Detroit has more service, you can't say it has less.


Compared to 2008 yes but how about compared to 2007 the last real true year NWA operated out of DTW without and Delta influence

Show me the 2007 numbers, then we'll talk
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 4:44 pm

RE: STR

I did some numbers on whether DTW-STR could happen.

I want to make a quick note: YYZ average fares to STR ($1110) 1 stop, ORD ($1143) 1 stop, DTW ($1431) 2 stops or ($2011) 1 stop.

The best bet would be DL, even though DL is doing better with MUC, they're still having trouble with filling up the flight or leaving with less than 25 seats open on a 76W so DL wouldn't add it until MUC improves, or if MUC fails they won't do STR at all. If DL flew the flight for 129 days (May 24-Sep 30), that would equate to 26,832 seats. Per MIDT, from the Detroit end only, 13947 for 2016. That's 51% of the total seats, so is the percentage really good enough to justify a nonstop even with connections? I don't think so, because that would take away from ATL's flight and reduce the flow in ATL which is not what DL wants. I feel like DL would lose money and flights would leave with over 100 seats open.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 5:35 pm

flymco753 wrote:
RE: STR

I did some numbers on whether DTW-STR could happen.

I want to make a quick note: YYZ average fares to STR ($1110) 1 stop, ORD ($1143) 1 stop, DTW ($1431) 2 stops or ($2011) 1 stop.

The best bet would be DL, even though DL is doing better with MUC, they're still having trouble with filling up the flight or leaving with less than 25 seats open on a 76W so DL wouldn't add it until MUC improves, or if MUC fails they won't do STR at all. If DL flew the flight for 129 days (May 24-Sep 30), that would equate to 26,832 seats. Per MIDT, from the Detroit end only, 13947 for 2016. That's 51% of the total seats, so is the percentage really good enough to justify a nonstop even with connections? I don't think so, because that would take away from ATL's flight and reduce the flow in ATL which is not what DL wants. I feel like DL would lose money and flights would leave with over 100 seats open.

Route seems too skinny. Maybe it can work with the rumored MOM/797
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 6:04 pm

flymco753 wrote:
RE: STR

I did some numbers on whether DTW-STR could happen.

I want to make a quick note: YYZ average fares to STR ($1110) 1 stop, ORD ($1143) 1 stop, DTW ($1431) 2 stops or ($2011) 1 stop.

The best bet would be DL, even though DL is doing better with MUC, they're still having trouble with filling up the flight or leaving with less than 25 seats open on a 76W so DL wouldn't add it until MUC improves, or if MUC fails they won't do STR at all. If DL flew the flight for 129 days (May 24-Sep 30), that would equate to 26,832 seats. Per MIDT, from the Detroit end only, 13947 for 2016. That's 51% of the total seats, so is the percentage really good enough to justify a nonstop even with connections? I don't think so, because that would take away from ATL's flight and reduce the flow in ATL which is not what DL wants. I feel like DL would lose money and flights would leave with over 100 seats open.



I just came back from that flight. I was able to scrounge up a Jet Blue/Turkish for $998. It is interesting that STR also feels left out. I got several stickers at the Information desk that say "I Fly STR" and similar sayings to encourage people not to go to Frankfurt, Munich, and Zurich to fly.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 6:32 pm

flymco753 wrote:
RE: STR

I did some numbers on whether DTW-STR could happen.

I want to make a quick note: YYZ average fares to STR ($1110) 1 stop, ORD ($1143) 1 stop, DTW ($1431) 2 stops or ($2011) 1 stop.

The best bet would be DL, even though DL is doing better with MUC, they're still having trouble with filling up the flight or leaving with less than 25 seats open on a 76W so DL wouldn't add it until MUC improves, or if MUC fails they won't do STR at all. If DL flew the flight for 129 days (May 24-Sep 30), that would equate to 26,832 seats. Per MIDT, from the Detroit end only, 13947 for 2016. That's 51% of the total seats, so is the percentage really good enough to justify a nonstop even with connections? I don't think so, because that would take away from ATL's flight and reduce the flow in ATL which is not what DL wants. I feel like DL would lose money and flights would leave with over 100 seats open.



I think an even better bet is just to move that flight from ATL to Detroit because let's face it those using the ATL-STR leg could just as easily connect at Detroit plus Delta could capture the Detroit Traffic as well that is not choosing Delta because of their inflated prices.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:25 pm

klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
RE: STR

I did some numbers on whether DTW-STR could happen.

I want to make a quick note: YYZ average fares to STR ($1110) 1 stop, ORD ($1143) 1 stop, DTW ($1431) 2 stops or ($2011) 1 stop.

The best bet would be DL, even though DL is doing better with MUC, they're still having trouble with filling up the flight or leaving with less than 25 seats open on a 76W so DL wouldn't add it until MUC improves, or if MUC fails they won't do STR at all. If DL flew the flight for 129 days (May 24-Sep 30), that would equate to 26,832 seats. Per MIDT, from the Detroit end only, 13947 for 2016. That's 51% of the total seats, so is the percentage really good enough to justify a nonstop even with connections? I don't think so, because that would take away from ATL's flight and reduce the flow in ATL which is not what DL wants. I feel like DL would lose money and flights would leave with over 100 seats open.



I think an even better bet is just to move that flight from ATL to Detroit because let's face it those using the ATL-STR leg could just as easily connect at Detroit plus Delta could capture the Detroit Traffic as well that is not choosing Delta because of their inflated prices.

the prices would be similar, but Delta has more connections from Atlanta than Detroit. No reason to send more people on 2-stop routings
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:51 pm

ATL-STR is a very important business market as well, as Mercedes and Porsche have their US HQ there. As much as DTW could warrant a direct flight to STR, it's unlikely to happen as STR is just too close to FRA and MUC and beginning STR service would definitely cannibalize FRA and MUC service. STR is not really an interesting place and I'd much rather have FRA and MUC service vs. STR.

STR is not going to be stimulated by lower fares. The market is purely business oriented and it would create only down-sell into lower booking classes if you lower prices. The entire market would not expand as it consist 99% of business traffic. It would be interesting if an airline were to start a privatair type service like FRA-PNQ or SVG-IAH.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:48 pm

^DUS is a different story, DL will probably re-add DUS now that it's growing again, but not until the 339 comes online so it can free up some 76W's. DUB is probably more likely to happen on EI and than DL will add to compete since both ends benefit from connections, both on 757s.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:25 pm

Sadly, DL's eliminated the second daily flight to PDX, sans a short period from November into December. Previously they pushed back the start date, now the flight goes away completely right before the Holidays.

cvgComair wrote:
Nice to see the increases in mainline, I am looking forward to being on the 717 instead of a CRJ-200 for CVG-DTW. Do you know what % capacity DL will be up compared to fall 2008?


I don't have the numbers in front of me at the moment, but it's fairly comparable (in other words, just a hair larger in 2017 vs. 2008); I'll post the finite figures later.

Seat1F wrote:
I did a quick look at DL's autumn schedule on a single Thursday from DTW to long-haul west coast destinations (SEA/PDX/SFO/LAX/SNA/SAN/PHX/LAS). It was interesting to find that all these flights are operated by narrow-body Boeing aircraft (737/757 variants) Nary an airbus to be seen. No 767 either. I wonder why they have gone to all Boeing to the West Coast?


DL generally flies AVOD-equipped aircraft from DTW to the West Coast, which is why most flights are operated with 737 & 757 equipment. The 320 do regularly operate to PHX & LAS, two low-yielding destinations that historically received very few AVOD-equipped aircraft (e.g. 320, AVOD-less 737 & 757). DL has never regularly scheduled anything smaller than the 320/738 to the West Coast (sans short-lived SNA service). We will see Airbus soon -- the 321 are scheduled to the West Coast beginning next year, and it's probable SNA will switch to the 319.

And to compensate for the loss in capacity from the 763, DL's added capacity via additional flights & upgauaging on select days. Yes, there are times where capacity has dropped, but reality is the 763 was too large of an aircraft much of the year. Until a few years ago, DL's 763A fleet was gently used most of the year; utilization sharply increased when fuel prices dropped. Several years ago, when fuel prices free fell and DL had retired many DC-9 and 757 faster than their replacements came in, DL cut frequency on east-west flights from DTW and heavily scheduled the 763 to compensate. A couple years later, as 739 deliveries increased, frequency was restored and most 763 were redeployed to sun destinations (primarily from MSP). And I traveled on many 763 from LAX-DTW/MSP/ATL during the fall months in recent years and there were generally plenty of empty seats (yes... even ATL, after DL cleared employee standbys).
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:33 pm

Seat1F wrote:
I did a quick look at DL's autumn schedule on a single Thursday from DTW to long-haul west coast destinations (SEA/PDX/SFO/LAX/SNA/SAN/PHX/LAS). It was interesting to find that all these flights are operated by narrow-body Boeing aircraft (737/757 variants) Nary an airbus to be seen. No 767 either. I wonder why they have gone to all Boeing to the West Coast?

As Compensateme indicated, they are flying AVOD equiped aircraft to the West Coast markets. Its possible they may return when the remainder of the A320s get the P2 mod with AVOD. I flew on a DTW-SEA A320 flight in 2016 without AVOD, but they've pulled them since.

klm617 wrote:
Some how I find that hard to believe considering the amount of destinations that have been cut in this market. In 2008 the merger was already announced so Delta was already scaling back the NWA operations to bring them in line with Delta's vision of how the combined network would look. I think you really need to go back to 2007 to get a true indication of how much service has fallen off in the Detroit market. Even more telling to get back to the figure you're talking about it took nine years CVG in it's heyday was larger than Detroit is now. I think positive indicators in this market is when we see more destinations added there are still no markets that favor a connection over Detroit rather than another hub in the Delta network which again says a lot about how Delta views Detroit in it's network.

The average seats per departure is up significantly over the past 10 years in DTW. In 2007/2008, more than 50% of the departures were on 34-seat SF3s and 50 seat RJs. Even the DC-9s came in at 100-125 seats. Most of the routes/markets that were cut only had 50-100 seats per day. Offset by the markets that have seen increases in the past 10 years. The reality was that high-water market for DTW hub capacity I believe was in 2000, but that was in a different era. 2007/2008 was the most recent high-water mark in the post-9/11, post-bankruptcy era.

compensateme wrote:
Sadly, DL's eliminated the second daily flight to PDX, sans a short period from November into December. Previously they pushed back the start date, now the flight goes away completely right before the Holidays.

Not surprised really, it will be interesting to see if it goes 2x daily again in spring/summer. Considering this was a route that DL only used to run as a seasonal red-eye fairly recently.
At least they are leaving the morning westbound, afternoon eastbound flight instead of the red-eye.

compensateme wrote:
Some quick thoughts on DL's preliminary early fall schedule (which will change, of course):
- DL continues its trend of offering more capacity at DTW during the fall months than it did so during peak summer months; DL clearly utilizes DTW to chase high-yielding business traffic.
- 201 peak-day mainline departures are scheduled, the most DL's ever offered at DTW. For comparison sake, DL scheduled 147 peak-day mainline departures summer 2012.
- Unsurprisingly, the growth in mainline movements comes from the MD-88, as the aircraft are replaced at ATL with 739/321. Overall, nearly half of DTW's mainline movements will be on the 717, MD-88 and MD-90 -- a plus if you enjoy 2x3 seating or classic MD jets.
- DL will surpass the capacity offered by NW fall 2008, its last as an independent carrier.
- Peak-day 50-seat jets departures will dwindle to 111, the fewest offered nearly 14 years.
- More spokes are receiving mainline, including SYR & IAD.

Yep, interesting to see some of the adds. Markets like OMA, DFW even getting more than 1 mainline flight a day.

Looks like there is very limited E170/175 and 757 service this fall out of DTW.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:51 pm

^MCO is going back to 757s/75Ys which is great news, that'll take over this August. I think RSW will be getting a 757. Other than that; ATL, SEA, MSP, SAN, LAX, LAS, and SFO are the only other places I can find 757s flying to.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:59 pm

Oh and I didn't mention, TLV could be a possibility for DTW by 2020. With El Al getting some 787's it'd be the perfect aircraft size for a nonstop, but RJ offers low yields to TLV so would it effect RJ? Either how I think El Al can make 4x weekly work on a 787, easy. There's only one thing that could hurt El Al, and that would be DL deploying a daily 359.
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:03 pm

flymco753 wrote:
Oh and I didn't mention, TLV could be a possibility for DTW by 2020. With El Al getting some 787's it'd be the perfect aircraft size for a nonstop, but RJ offers low yields to TLV so would it effect RJ? Either how I think El Al can make 4x weekly work on a 787, easy. There's only one thing that could hurt El Al, and that would be DL deploying a daily 359.

There isn't much Hi-Tech in the Detroit area, not is there a large Jewish population, so I don't see this route near the top of LY's list. We're more likely to see ORD , which regulators on both ends (Israeli gov and Chicago mayor) seem to want. DL on a 339 or 76W is more likely , although they're likely to restore ATL-TLV first IMO.
TLV, BRU, ZRH, CDG, FRA, EWR, JFK, DEN, SFO, AUS, RNO, SEA, YYC, YYZ, IAH, ATL, IAD, DCA, ORD, SJC, SNA
 
kavok
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:35 pm

ASQ400 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Oh and I didn't mention, TLV could be a possibility for DTW by 2020. With El Al getting some 787's it'd be the perfect aircraft size for a nonstop, but RJ offers low yields to TLV so would it effect RJ? Either how I think El Al can make 4x weekly work on a 787, easy. There's only one thing that could hurt El Al, and that would be DL deploying a daily 359.

There isn't much Hi-Tech in the Detroit area, not is there a large Jewish population, so I don't see this route near the top of LY's list. We're more likely to see ORD , which regulators on both ends (Israeli gov and Chicago mayor) seem to want. DL on a 339 or 76W is more likely , although they're likely to restore ATL-TLV first IMO.


While I agree DTW is probably not high on LY's list, the notion that there is not much Hi-Tech in the DTW area is a flat out lie. The region leads the U.S. in number of patents, and is easily one of the top 10 hi-tech areas in all of North America. Next you are probably going to tell us there are no auto companies in the DTW area either.

As for Jewish population, just search I-696 tunnels. Yes DTW is no NYC, but there is a substantial Jewish population in the region. As of late, you have been giving a certain other poster a run for the money in terms of most absurd and fictional posts about DTW.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:42 pm

kavok wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Oh and I didn't mention, TLV could be a possibility for DTW by 2020. With El Al getting some 787's it'd be the perfect aircraft size for a nonstop, but RJ offers low yields to TLV so would it effect RJ? Either how I think El Al can make 4x weekly work on a 787, easy. There's only one thing that could hurt El Al, and that would be DL deploying a daily 359.

There isn't much Hi-Tech in the Detroit area, not is there a large Jewish population, so I don't see this route near the top of LY's list. We're more likely to see ORD , which regulators on both ends (Israeli gov and Chicago mayor) seem to want. DL on a 339 or 76W is more likely , although they're likely to restore ATL-TLV first IMO.


While I agree DTW is probably not high on LY's list, the notion that there is not much Hi-Tech in the DTW area is a flat out lie. The region leads the U.S. in number of patents, and is easily one of the top 10 hi-tech areas in all of North America. Next you are probably going to tell us there are no auto companies in the DTW area either.

As for Jewish population, just search I-696 tunnels. Yes DTW is no NYC, but there is a substantial Jewish population in the region. As of late, you have been giving a certain other poster a run for the money in terms of most absurd and fictional posts about DTW.


Oakland County, north of Detroit, is arguable the global capital of automotive high tech.

As for TLV, the one advantage DTW has over ATL is that DTW-TLV could be done with a 767, whereas ATL would require something bigger.
 
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:22 am

GSP psgr wrote:
kavok wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
There isn't much Hi-Tech in the Detroit area, not is there a large Jewish population, so I don't see this route near the top of LY's list. We're more likely to see ORD , which regulators on both ends (Israeli gov and Chicago mayor) seem to want. DL on a 339 or 76W is more likely , although they're likely to restore ATL-TLV first IMO.


While I agree DTW is probably not high on LY's list, the notion that there is not much Hi-Tech in the DTW area is a flat out lie. The region leads the U.S. in number of patents, and is easily one of the top 10 hi-tech areas in all of North America. Next you are probably going to tell us there are no auto companies in the DTW area either.

As for Jewish population, just search I-696 tunnels. Yes DTW is no NYC, but there is a substantial Jewish population in the region. As of late, you have been giving a certain other poster a run for the money in terms of most absurd and fictional posts about DTW.


Oakland County, north of Detroit, is arguable the global capital of automotive high tech.

As for TLV, the one advantage DTW has over ATL is that DTW-TLV could be done with a 767, whereas ATL would require something bigger.


True, but DTW = Detroit + Oakland County + Ann Arbor + etc. I don't see anyone arguing JFK can't support flights because the Bronx has low income areas. There are other urban planning forums where one can discuss the differences between Detroit vs Oakland County. But for the purposes of this forum, Detroit, Oakland Co, Ann Arbor, etc. are all under the DTW umbrella.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:55 am

kavok wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
kavok wrote:

While I agree DTW is probably not high on LY's list, the notion that there is not much Hi-Tech in the DTW area is a flat out lie. The region leads the U.S. in number of patents, and is easily one of the top 10 hi-tech areas in all of North America. Next you are probably going to tell us there are no auto companies in the DTW area either.

As for Jewish population, just search I-696 tunnels. Yes DTW is no NYC, but there is a substantial Jewish population in the region. As of late, you have been giving a certain other poster a run for the money in terms of most absurd and fictional posts about DTW.


Oakland County, north of Detroit, is arguable the global capital of automotive high tech.

As for TLV, the one advantage DTW has over ATL is that DTW-TLV could be done with a 767, whereas ATL would require something bigger.


True, but DTW = Detroit + Oakland County + Ann Arbor + etc. I don't see anyone arguing JFK can't support flights because the Bronx has low income areas. There are other urban planning forums where one can discuss the differences between Detroit vs Oakland County. But for the purposes of this forum, Detroit, Oakland Co, Ann Arbor, etc. are all under the DTW umbrella.
That's why I suggested TLV would come eventually, I did some research and there's about 11K from last year that went to TLV. I'm thinking it'll happen when the 339 comes on board because 1) where else would they put them when there's nowhere else? 2) it's the perfect size to fill with O&D and connections. 3) I've projected TLV to carry 15K by 2020 looking at previous numbers. Also take this into account, the reason DTW doesn't have a Venezuela flight is because the people in the area aren't likely to go home due to obvious reasons whereas there's a dense amount of Israelis that go back and actually use DTW, DTW-JFK-TLV on the last JFK 717 to be exact, over half of that flight goes to TLV.

The thing is, I don't think DL will add it until someone else does, but the yields that RJ has been putting up for TLV shows a nice draw which could put thought into DL starting it. Quite honestly, when the 332 is pulled from PEK, it could be utilized on TLV if they really wanted to. Plus I think ties to that region are a little tigher at DTW than ATL, but you have more connections in ATL which automatically surpasses DTW.
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klm617
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Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Part 5

Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:23 pm

GSP psgr wrote:
kavok wrote:
ASQ400 wrote:
There isn't much Hi-Tech in the Detroit area, not is there a large Jewish population, so I don't see this route near the top of LY's list. We're more likely to see ORD , which regulators on both ends (Israeli gov and Chicago mayor) seem to want. DL on a 339 or 76W is more likely , although they're likely to restore ATL-TLV first IMO.


While I agree DTW is probably not high on LY's list, the notion that there is not much Hi-Tech in the DTW area is a flat out lie. The region leads the U.S. in number of patents, and is easily one of the top 10 hi-tech areas in all of North America. Next you are probably going to tell us there are no auto companies in the DTW area either.

As for Jewish population, just search I-696 tunnels. Yes DTW is no NYC, but there is a substantial Jewish population in the region. As of late, you have been giving a certain other poster a run for the money in terms of most absurd and fictional posts about DTW.


Oakland County, north of Detroit, is arguable the global capital of automotive high tech.

As for TLV, the one advantage DTW has over ATL is that DTW-TLV could be done with a 767, whereas ATL would require something bigger.



While I think a DL DTW-TLV route would be a stellar performer we all know that everything must be done out of ATL even if there is a DTW-TLV market DL will not operate it.
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