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qf789
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Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:10 pm

Qantas has todays announced an underlying profit before tax of $852 million for the first half of 2016/2017, though down 7.5% on prior corresponding period

All parts of QF were profitable
QF Domestic underlying EBIT $371 million down $16 million on same period last year
QF International underlying EBIT $208 million down $62 million on previous period last year
JQ Group underlying EBIT of $275 million up $13 million
QF Loyalty underlying profit of $181 million up $5 million
QF Freight underlying EBIT $27 million down $11 million

First JQ A320neo delivery has been deferred to financial year 2019

The 2 oldest 744's will be retired by mid 2018, a total of 5 744's will be retired by the time all 8 789's are delivered

http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media- ... sult/20neo
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EK413
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:22 pm

qf789 wrote:
The 2 oldest 744's will be retired by mid 2018, a total of 5 744's will be retired by the time all 8 789's are delivered

http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media- ... sult/20neo


This was always the plan, so the sole remaining B744 fleet will consist of 6 x B744ER's :(

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smi0006
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:57 pm

EK413 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
The 2 oldest 744's will be retired by mid 2018, a total of 5 744's will be retired by the time all 8 789's are delivered

http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media- ... sult/20neo


This was always the plan, so the sole remaining B744 fleet will consist of 6 x B744ER's :(

EK413


Makes sense. I wonder how long the ERs will be kept around they are only 15 years old. So still some life left in them yet, especially with fuel at current prices. I believe there is an expensive modification required to their fuel tanks - given the ERs are the latest version, is this required for them? Or factory fitted?
 
travelhound
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:36 am

I thought they would have overlapped the introduction if the 787-9 and the retirement of the 744's. It looks like they are going to be capacity neutral, so they wont be developing to many new routes!
 
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EK413
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 7:00 am

I'd say QF will play their cards close to their chest for now just like the new W seats. Once B789's come online & QF realise the Dream)liners aren't gas guzzlers we could expect the remaining outstanding options exercised.

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TC957
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:32 am

What ! You mean an airline that operates A380's and no 77W's can actually make money ?? That goes against the thinking of most a-netters.... :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:06 am

smi0006 wrote:
EK413 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
The 2 oldest 744's will be retired by mid 2018, a total of 5 744's will be retired by the time all 8 789's are delivered

http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media- ... sult/20neo


This was always the plan, so the sole remaining B744 fleet will consist of 6 x B744ER's :(

EK413


Makes sense. I wonder how long the ERs will be kept around they are only 15 years old. So still some life left in them yet, especially with fuel at current prices. I believe there is an expensive modification required to their fuel tanks - given the ERs are the latest version, is this required for them? Or factory fitted?


Im not sure what fuel tank modifications you referring to?

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anshabhi
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:08 am

What is their net profit after tax? As that a truly comparable figure..
 
parapente
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:16 am

If they are retiring 744's and introducing 789's,that would suggest capacity reduction.But perhaps it's not on a one to one basis?
 
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:28 am

1 to 1 basis for the 1st 5 x B789's with 3 frames for growth. The B744ER's will take QF well into 2020-22. The 8 deferred A380's still linger overhead, personally I'd say QF 1 of 2 things pay the penalty & walk away OR 2ndly explore the A350.

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LionelHutz
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:41 pm

EK413 wrote:
1 to 1 basis for the 1st 5 x B789's with 3 frames for growth. The B744ER's will take QF well into 2020-22. The 8 deferred A380's still linger overhead, personally I'd say QF 1 of 2 things pay the penalty & walk away OR 2ndly explore the A350.

EK413


It'll be interesting to see how the fleet assignment evolves as the 789's are introduced and the 744's go.
Do they give up capacity and go for yield on some current 744 routes, or do they go for significant restructure of current fleet assignments? :geek:
 
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zkojq
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:42 pm

A good result in spite of yield pressures that the airline is nodoubt facing.

TC957 wrote:
What ! You mean an airline that operates A380's and no 77W's can actually make money ?? That goes against the thinking of most a-netters.... :stirthepot:

Meanwhile Virgin Australia international, with a longhaul fleet composed entirely of god's gift to airline economics, has been losing money hand over fist for years!

EK413 wrote:
personally I'd say QF 1 of 2 things pay the penalty & walk away OR 2ndly explore the A350.

EK413

It was mentioned a while ago that they were evaluating the A350-900ULR (and 777-8), but IMO the A350-1000 would make more sense for them. The 787-9s are in a premium heavy configuration and any A350-900ULRs (or 777-8s) would surely be in one too, which doesn't make a lot of sense. The A350-1000 is closer in size to the 744s than the 787-9s. I would speculate that if the A350-1000 were to join the QF fleet, we would initially see a three-tier approach to twin engine long haul flying;
- Premium heavy 787-9s operating routes such as PER-LHR, SYD-CDG, MEL-LAX, SYD-LAX, SYD-SFO, SYD/MEL-DFW (with the A380 used for the current SYD-DFW services redeployed elsewhere in the network).
- A350-1000s in a less premium heavy configuration operating routes such as BNE-LAX, SYD-HKG, SYD-NRT, SYD-JNB, SYD-SCL, SYD-YVR.
- The current A330-300s operating most of their regular Asia routes, but doing more flying out of BNE/MEL (dare I say PER also?) rather than SYD.

Presumably the A330-300s would be eventually replaced by some 787-9s in a less premium heavy configuration (I like to think there's a small possibility of some A330-900 orders, but that's probably just my inner A330 fanboy dreaming :cloudnine: ).
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qantas747
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:15 pm

Considering the two eldest 744's tend to operate mostly on the SYD-JNB/SYD-HND flights does this mean that we would likely see the 789 replace these flights? Would 3-4 months operating MEL-LAX be enough to certify for ETOPS330 to JNB?

CPT was originally on the QF 789 range map, could it be that we see a SYD-CPT route introduced? Is it more likely that we could see QF go from PER-JNB/CPT.

a PER-JNB return ( based on current flight times) could leave PER @ 1400 arriving JNB ~1645, turning around at 1845 for a ~10am arrival into PER, utilising only one frame (you could operate say 4 to JNB, 3 to CPT instead and still have plenty of time in the schedule)

Does JNB warrant going daily? And would QF drop the direct from SYD in favour of PER?

Might it be that the SYD-JNB/HND triangle goes to the 744ERs and the 789s go onto SCL and SFO

The old 744's have effectively 66J seats so going to 789s is a dramatic reduction, and I would not of thought this to be prudent on HND. Maybe they go to a double daily operation into HND ( if they can get the slots) to increase efficiency and maintain overall HND capacity (but would result in loss of W class to that market)

I guess we'll likely find out the next 789 routes in the second half of this year...
 
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zkojq
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:29 am

qantas747 wrote:
The old 744's have effectively 66J seats so going to 789s is a dramatic reduction, and I would not of thought this to be prudent on HND. Maybe they go to a double daily operation into HND ( if they can get the slots) to increase efficiency and maintain overall HND capacity (but would result in loss of W class to that market)

If MEL-DFW is opened and SYD-DFW gets downgraded to a 787-9. Maybe the A380 used for SYD-DFW could be switched to Haneda? Does anyone have any info on how HND is performing relative to NRT?
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qf71
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Fri Feb 24, 2017 3:02 pm

With 5x B744s being replaced with 8x B787 this marks a new era for Qantas. It will mark the beginning of a new global network revolving mostly around ULH capable fuel efficient WB twins.
With MEL-PER-LHR being launched with the B787 I think it is most likely we could see MEL-PER-LHR and MEL-DXB (as a W pattern) being operated with the B787 with the A380s being redeployed on BNE-LAX-JFK. Replacing the A380s with B787s on MEL-DXB and launching MEL-PER-LHR also means an increase in premium seats allowing QF to maximise yield.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the following operational from QF for the first 4 B787s

Depart Melbourne 3pm QF9
Arrive Perth 5:30pm QF9
Depart Perth 7:30pm QF9
Arrive London 6:00am QF9
Depart London 11:00am QF10
Arrive Perth 10:00am QF10
Depart Perth 12:00pm QF10
Arrive Melbourne 5:30pm QF10
Depart Melbourne 10:00pm QF31
Arrive Dubai 6:00am QF31
Depart Dubai 10:00am QF32
Arrive Melbourne 6:00am QF32
--- Ground Time -- Repeat schedule --- possibly 1x Weekly to be operated by B744 to allow for sufficient A Check/unscheduled MX time

This provides QF with massive operational efficiencies which will significantly improve the EBIT and costs of the International division whilst maintaining overall capacity in the market. This also follows QF's public narrative that the first 2 B747s will be retired once the first 4 B787s arrive by mid 2018. The other 4 B787s will be used for MEL-DFW (6x Weekly) and SYD-DFW (Daily) allowing for more operational efficiencies with the A380 being redeployed to SCL and JNB abeit with small frequency cuts whilst maintaining capacity in the market.

SYD-DXB-LHR would be retimed with a late night departure ex SYD. the late night depature ex LHR would remain, along with the morning SYD arrival. This then allows for SYD-JNB and SYD-SCL which would depart SYD late morning as per current schedule. Then arrive back the next day in the afternoon and evening respectively in time to operate QF1. This operation would require 4 A380s with the other 6 dedicated to LAX operations. The other 2x A380s would allow for MX downtime, coverage of certain B744 routes during peak periods and some additional op frexibility.

Overall I guess we will see some new routes in the coming years, along with existing routes being upgauged. I wouldn't be surprised if QF further upgrade their A332 Y product and have a new A332 ITNL config which is said to be in development due to current issues.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the following routes pop up or be modified slightly in the next 2 years
PER-SIN Daily A332 (upgauged from B738)
PER-AKL Daily A332 (year round instead of seasonal, connects to PER-LHR, provides onward connections from AKL to regional NZ, LAX/NOU/NAN/PPT/SCL
PER-DPS???? It would help QF really gain market relevance in PER and allow it to have an offering to a destination that accounts for at least 20% of PER ITNL passenger volume
MEL-DFW 6x Weekly B787-938
MEL-DXB Daily B787-938
MEL-PVG Daily A332 (new route)
SYD-PVG Daily A332 (downgauged from A333, operates in tandem with MEL-PVG)
SYD-MNL 6/7x Weekly A333 (up from 5x weekly)
SYD-NAN 4x Weekly B738 - Transferred back from JQ to increase south pacific network, uses same B738 that operates SYD-NOU 3x Weekly
SYD-DPS Daily B738 this is operated by the same frame that does SYD-NAN/NOU operating in an E/W pattern
SYD-HNL Daily A332/A333 - JQ to focus on Daily MEL-HNL

Domestic A332 flying to be reduced slightly further with more B738 on Transcons.

A330-200
Domestic (9.0)
PER-SIN (1.0)
PER-AKL (1.0)
SYD-PVG (1.0)
MEL-PVG (1.0)
SYD-PEK (1.0)
SYD-SIN (1.0)
SYD-HNL (1.0)

A330-300
SYD-SIN (1.0)
SYD-HKG (1.0)
SYD-BKK (1.0)
SYD-CGK (1.0)
SYD-MNL (1.0)
MEL-SIN (1.0)
MEL-NRT (1.0)
BNE-SIN (1.0)
BNE-NRT (1.0)
BNE-HKG (1.0)

B747-400
SYD-HKG (1.0)
MEL-HKG (1.0)
SYD-HND (2.0)
SYD-SFO (2.0)

A380-800
SYD-DXB-LHR (2.5)
SYD-JNB/SCL (1.5)
SYD-LAX-JFK (2.0)
MEL-LAX (2.0)
BNE-LAX (2.0)

B787-9
SYD-DFW (2.0)
MEL-DFW (2.0)
MEL-DXB (2.0)
MEL-PER-LHR (2.0)
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:19 am

Qf71 I would say SCL/JNB will stay 744 for a while yet and when they retire the 789 will be able to run them, maybe once they order more 789's with more Y seats? Both increase in frequency to daily with additional peak season flights particularly JNB, SCL might be 5-6 weekly with daily in peak.

QF have said they would use a 4 class plane to HKG if they had more so I would see HKG as a daily maybe 5-6 weekly A380 to allow down time. This would be after the proposed refits which I would say will happen in 2018/19 bar the peak summer period where they will have the extra frame going to HKG.

They could retime SYD-DXB-LHR but SYD curfew and LHR slots are the issue. I would say they keep as is with the A380 remaining at LHR all day, they have 2 other sets of slots leased that they should/may be able to swap with Whoever they are leased to. Agree MEL-PER-LHR to replace MEL-DXB-LHR.

Not sure on BNE-LAX-JFK going A380 tbh, probably remain a 744, if we assume this utilization with the 6 744ER's only.

I'd see in off peak daily unless stated

A380 x12

SYD-DXB-LHR 3 aircraft
SYD-DFW 2 aircraft
SYD-LAX 2 aircraft
MEL-LAX 2 aircraft
SYD -HKG 1 aircraft
SYD-SFO 1 aircraft 3 weekly, 744 other days probably not selling F on A380

744 6 aircraft

SYD-JNB 6 weekly 1.5 aircraft
SYD-SCL 5 weekly 1.5 aircraft
BNE-LAX-JFK daily 2 aircraft
SYD-SFO 4 weekly 1 aircraft rotates with A380, more A380 to cover 744 and vv for maintanence

789 8 aircraft

MEL-PER-LHR 2.5 aircraft
MEL-DFW 1.5 aircraft total 4 combined with MEL-PER-LHR
2 new routes or other routes maybe 789's on SYD-DFW.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:56 am

Maybe it would make more sense for QF to base the remaining 6 744ER's in SYD once the rest leave so SYD-HND can continue on a 744 rather than BNE-LAX-JFK which can switch to a 789 while adding a 5 weekly BNE-DFW and rotating the 789 back to MEL through DFW? So 8 789's on

MEL-PER-LHR 2.5 aircraft
MEL-DFW 1.5 aircraft
BNE-LAX-JFK 2 aircraft
BNE-DFW 1.5 aircraft (5 weekly)

Possibly BNE-LAX 9 weekly with BNE-DFW 4 weekly or something.

SYD-YVR could run 3 weekly 744 seasonally and in those periods SFO gets a daily A380.

I won't say much about the A330 fleet other than I think they will reconfigure some A332's for long haul with crew rests as has been mentioned, but I'm not sure they will use them outside of Asia and HNL.
 
travelhound
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:16 pm

On a per seat basis the 787-9 offers 3.75% more seats than the 744 (744-1820 seats, 787-9-1888 seats).

If we break down the seat count the 787-9 offers 15.85% more business class seats (744-290 seats, 787-9-336 seats), 24.45% more premium economy seats (744-180 seats, 787-9-244 seats) and a reduction of 3.75% economy seats (744-1350 seats, 787-9-1328 seats).

As such, even though the 787's will have an equivalent number of available seats, the mix will be geared towards premium customers.

Even though this suggests QANTAS will grow (revenues) by heading upmarket, it does raise a few questions about how QANTAS will grow actual passengers flown on international routes.

QANTAS have been quite upbeat about its new cost base in light of current opportunities in the market.

QANTAS have stated on many occasions they are under represented on Australia-Hong Kong flights. They up-gauge flights to 744's and A380's in peak periods.

If QANTAS does see opportunity to grow (its operation in the international market) and their new cost base gives them a competitive advantage over many foreign carriers, how does QANTAS take advantage of this when new planes coming into the fleet are being used solely for replacement?

We do know Jetstar will replace 787-8 Australia-Bali flights with A321NEO once this aircraft becomes available. This could free up a couple of 787-8 aircraft for other international destinations.

We also know QANTAS are using more A330-200's for international flying. They could dedicate another one or two aircraft to international flights, but this would probably be the max.

We could also assume there could be a six month to one year lag between the retirement of the 744’s and the 787’s coming into the feet. This could be a stop gap for growth, but only for a limited time.

If QANTAS do not add more flights (and subsequently aircraft) they will ultimately lose market share. With the international market growing by ~5% per year QANTAS would need to add an additional five 270 seat A330’s over two years just to maintain its current market share. This doesn’t account for growth in market after this period.

I suspect we will see a follow on order for the 787 or 787’s being sourced from lessors in the not too distant future. The numbers just don’t add up to suggest anything else!
 
qf002
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 1:21 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Maybe it would make more sense for QF to base the remaining 6 744ER's in SYD once the rest leave so SYD-HND can continue on a 744 rather than BNE-LAX-JFK which can switch to a 789 while adding a 5 weekly BNE-DFW and rotating the 789 back to MEL through DFW?


The 744s are already based at SYD. There's no reason why they can't continue to rotate aircraft over LAX/HKG to link BNE/MEL into the network.

Assuming the JV gets up, I'd expect AA to operate one of the three daily flights into MEL (probably LAX-MEL with QF shifting their aircraft over to MEL-DFW). There's also an opportunity for AA to enter BNE alongside QF but I don't think we will see any changes for BNE until past 2020 unless there is a major competitive shift (for example, UA entering the market).

It will certainly be interesting to see what QF does with the four 789s due in FY19.

travelhound wrote:
Even though this suggests QANTAS will grow (revenues) by heading upmarket, it does raise a few questions about how QANTAS will grow actual passengers flown on international routes.


QF has always maintained a great deal of flexibility around 744 retirements. If the economy holds up and oil remains at a manageable level then we will almost certainly see some life extensions and at least a couple of the three reconfigured 744s plough on past 2020. The cost of keeping these frames going for an extra couple of years is very low compared with the cost of acquiring new aircraft to drive growth instead.
 
getluv
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:51 pm

travelhound wrote:

If QANTAS do not add more flights (and subsequently aircraft) they will ultimately lose market share.


I think QF have realised this, but I think they will be looking to split routes up if possible and cover other/new routes and use their JV partners, EK, MU and in future AA.
Last edited by getluv on Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I'm that bad type.
 
qantas747
Posts: 377
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:00 pm

travelhound wrote:
On a per seat basis the 787-9 offers 3.75% more seats than the 744 (744-1820 seats, 787-9-1888 seats).

If we break down the seat count the 787-9 offers 15.85% more business class seats (744-290 seats, 787-9-336 seats), 24.45% more premium economy seats (744-180 seats, 787-9-244 seats) and a reduction of 3.75% economy seats (744-1350 seats, 787-9-1328 seats).

As such, even though the 787's will have an equivalent number of available seats, the mix will be geared towards premium customers.

Even though this suggests QANTAS will grow (revenues) by heading upmarket, it does raise a few questions about how QANTAS will grow actual passengers flown on international routes.

QANTAS have been quite upbeat about its new cost base in light of current opportunities in the market.

QANTAS have stated on many occasions they are under represented on Australia-Hong Kong flights. They up-gauge flights to 744's and A380's in peak periods.

If QANTAS does see opportunity to grow (its operation in the international market) and their new cost base gives them a competitive advantage over many foreign carriers, how does QANTAS take advantage of this when new planes coming into the fleet are being used solely for replacement?

We do know Jetstar will replace 787-8 Australia-Bali flights with A321NEO once this aircraft becomes available. This could free up a couple of 787-8 aircraft for other international destinations.

We also know QANTAS are using more A330-200's for international flying. They could dedicate another one or two aircraft to international flights, but this would probably be the max.

We could also assume there could be a six month to one year lag between the retirement of the 744’s and the 787’s coming into the feet. This could be a stop gap for growth, but only for a limited time.

If QANTAS do not add more flights (and subsequently aircraft) they will ultimately lose market share. With the international market growing by ~5% per year QANTAS would need to add an additional five 270 seat A330’s over two years just to maintain its current market share. This doesn’t account for growth in market after this period.

I suspect we will see a follow on order for the 787 or 787’s being sourced from lessors in the not too distant future. The numbers just don’t add up to suggest anything else!



I think your numbers are out. QF 789s are configured 42J/28W/166Y compared to the 744 at 58J/36W/270Y

Using 789s to replace 744s to the US would result in a large capacity drop. Filled only by AA coming in with their own aircraft
 
travelhound
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:38 pm

qantas747 wrote:
travelhound wrote:
On a per seat basis the 787-9 offers 3.75% more seats than the 744 (744-1820 seats, 787-9-1888 seats).

If we break down the seat count the 787-9 offers 15.85% more business class seats (744-290 seats, 787-9-336 seats), 24.45% more premium economy seats (744-180 seats, 787-9-244 seats) and a reduction of 3.75% economy seats (744-1350 seats, 787-9-1328 seats).

As such, even though the 787's will have an equivalent number of available seats, the mix will be geared towards premium customers.

Even though this suggests QANTAS will grow (revenues) by heading upmarket, it does raise a few questions about how QANTAS will grow actual passengers flown on international routes.

QANTAS have been quite upbeat about its new cost base in light of current opportunities in the market.

QANTAS have stated on many occasions they are under represented on Australia-Hong Kong flights. They up-gauge flights to 744's and A380's in peak periods.

If QANTAS does see opportunity to grow (its operation in the international market) and their new cost base gives them a competitive advantage over many foreign carriers, how does QANTAS take advantage of this when new planes coming into the fleet are being used solely for replacement?

We do know Jetstar will replace 787-8 Australia-Bali flights with A321NEO once this aircraft becomes available. This could free up a couple of 787-8 aircraft for other international destinations.

We also know QANTAS are using more A330-200's for international flying. They could dedicate another one or two aircraft to international flights, but this would probably be the max.

We could also assume there could be a six month to one year lag between the retirement of the 744’s and the 787’s coming into the feet. This could be a stop gap for growth, but only for a limited time.

If QANTAS do not add more flights (and subsequently aircraft) they will ultimately lose market share. With the international market growing by ~5% per year QANTAS would need to add an additional five 270 seat A330’s over two years just to maintain its current market share. This doesn’t account for growth in market after this period.

I suspect we will see a follow on order for the 787 or 787’s being sourced from lessors in the not too distant future. The numbers just don’t add up to suggest anything else!



I think your numbers are out. QF 789s are configured 42J/28W/166Y compared to the 744 at 58J/36W/270Y

Using 789s to replace 744s to the US would result in a large capacity drop. Filled only by AA coming in with their own aircraft


Yes, but eight 787-9's will be replacing five 744's.

As such, if the 787's are being used to replace the 744's than the toal number of seats will remain the same.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:16 pm

qf002 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Maybe it would make more sense for QF to base the remaining 6 744ER's in SYD once the rest leave so SYD-HND can continue on a 744 rather than BNE-LAX-JFK which can switch to a 789 while adding a 5 weekly BNE-DFW and rotating the 789 back to MEL through DFW?


The 744s are already based at SYD. There's no reason why they can't continue to rotate aircraft over LAX/HKG to link BNE/MEL into the network.

Assuming the JV gets up, I'd expect AA to operate one of the three daily flights into MEL (probably LAX-MEL with QF shifting their aircraft over to MEL-DFW). There's also an opportunity for AA to enter BNE alongside QF but I don't think we will see any changes for BNE until past 2020 unless there is a major competitive shift (for example, UA entering the market).

It will certainly be interesting to see what QF does with the four 789s due in FY19.

travelhound wrote:
Even though this suggests QANTAS will grow (revenues) by heading upmarket, it does raise a few questions about how QANTAS will grow actual passengers flown on international routes.


QF has always maintained a great deal of flexibility around 744 retirements. If the economy holds up and oil remains at a manageable level then we will almost certainly see some life extensions and at least a couple of the three reconfigured 744s plough on past 2020. The cost of keeping these frames going for an extra couple of years is very low compared with the cost of acquiring new aircraft to drive growth instead.


Sure they are, it's just as the fleet drops down to 6 there will be less routes they are on so rotating them through HKG/LAX gets harder unless they do fly from SYD and MEL to HKG, that is a route I missed out MEL-HKG which is now a daily 744, and slots are hard to come by at HKG, maybe Ma daily SYD-HKG A380 plus 4 weekly A330 with MEL-HKG being 10 weekly A330?

I did forget about AA taking some US routes if the JV goes through, they would probably serve MEL/BNE-LAX rather than QF needing a second BNE-LAX, BNE-DFW seems to make sense at some point though.
 
kriskim
Posts: 402
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:35 pm

AA launching MEL-LAX is imminent (it has been known internally), once the JV is approved AA will likely takeover the second daily flight in 2018. QF then will either place the aircraft onto MEL-DFW or place it elsewhere in the network.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2446
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:16 pm

kriskim wrote:
AA launching MEL-LAX is imminent (it has been known internally), once the JV is approved AA will likely takeover the second daily flight in 2018. QF then will either place the aircraft onto MEL-DFW or place it elsewhere in the network.


This does make the most ammount of sense. I wonder if we could see MEL-SFO, try and get in before UA launch the route, a matter of if not when.

Perhaps if AA also launch daily BNE-LAX QF could comfortably revert to 789.

I don't see QF dropping MEL-DXB-LHR permanently, I do feel the market can support both routes, especially as all EK flights are 380s not much growth. But I do feel they will suspend it in some form so they can reconfig the 380s.

I hope we here more about 779/778 order in the coming year. I could see a 330/789/779/778 fleet into the future. I wonder how a 330NEO would fit for domestic and regional Asian ops? Could be a good usage of the 380 deposits.

Good to see QF investing - with a lower cost base, be hard to see VA compete.
 
jupiter2
Posts: 1739
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:20 pm

kriskim wrote:
AA launching MEL-LAX is imminent (it has been known internally), once the JV is approved AA will likely takeover the second daily flight in 2018. QF then will either place the aircraft onto MEL-DFW or place it elsewhere in the network.


Yet QF have already advised that the second flight will be operated by a 789 in the future with increased frequencies. So what gives with the AA rumour ? it doesn't make sense. Maybe AA doing DFW/MEL with a 787 may make some sense, but not LAX/MEL.

Saying that the 8 x 789's have a comparable seat count to the 5 x 744's they are replacing is all well and good, but the announced routes for the 789's already take up 4 frames and that only covers 1/2 of the utilisation of one 744. Either the MEL/DXB/LHR gets dropped to free up 380's to cover the 744 flying, or some flights will see significant capacity decreases.

Personally, I can see MEL/DXB/LHR going to a 789 as well, so the aircraft utilisation can be maximised with aircraft swaps in LHR with the flights from PER. This would still leave QF with a similar numbers of seats to LHR as present, while allowing QF passengers from MEL to fly QF to DXB before transferring to any EK flights there, instead of being forced to use EK all the way. If 380 capacity is freed up, the first routes they would be used would be SYD/HKG (QF127/128) and SYD/LAX (QF11/QF12), to allow both services to be daily 380's instead of a mix of 744/380. Other than that, I can't see any other routes that need 380 capacity in the current network, 789/333/744 markets yes, 380 no.
 
kriskim
Posts: 402
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:58 pm

jupiter2 wrote:
Yet QF have already advised that the second flight will be operated by a 789 in the future with increased frequencies. So what gives with the AA rumour ? it doesn't make sense. Maybe AA doing DFW/MEL with a 787 may make some sense, but not LAX/MEL.


AA won't be able to offer MEL-DFW with its higher density 789's, however QF can. The plan is for AA to operate MEL-LAX daily using 789's alongside QF's daily A380 service, TBH I think the QF service is just there for now in order to allow AA to takeover in the future once the JV is approved, then the long mooted MEL-DFW will start with QF. This makes the most sense for aircraft utilisation. Ofcourse this will be dependent on the JV being approved.

However in the event that the JV isn't approved, I don't see anything changing, especially with QF now wanting a dominant position in the MEL-Nth America market, however MEL-DFW will be pushed back further.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
tortugamon
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:15 am

anshabhi wrote:
What is their net profit after tax? As that a truly comparable figure..


I get frustrated by that to. Here you go:

"Qantas has posted a 25 per cent profit slide, amid competitive pressures and ongoing redundancy payments as part of its "transformation program".

The airline posted a first-half statutory net profit after tax of $515 million, down by a quarter on last year's $688 million interim result."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-23/q ... ts/8295650

tortugamon
 
qf002
Posts: 3602
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:00 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Sure they are, it's just as the fleet drops down to 6 there will be less routes they are on so rotating them through HKG/LAX gets harder unless they do fly from SYD and MEL to HKG, that is a route I missed out MEL-HKG which is now a daily 744, and slots are hard to come by at HKG, maybe Ma daily SYD-HKG A380 plus 4 weekly A330 with MEL-HKG being 10 weekly A330?


Such a shift would result in quite a big drop in premium capacity, from 208 seats today down to 169. I actually think we will probably see QF do a double daily A380/744 on SYD-HKG and eventually a double daily 744/A330 on MEL-HKG given that CX is basically maxed out on capacity unless they start buying bigger aircraft. The 789s might also figure into the equation down the track with their much larger J cabin plus W.

jupiter2 wrote:
If 380 capacity is freed up, the first routes they would be used would be SYD/HKG (QF127/128) and SYD/LAX (QF11/QF12), to allow both services to be daily 380's instead of a mix of 744/380.


Yes to HKG but that's only one frame. SYD-LAX is only a 744 one day per week so they still have basically one full frame of capacity to assign.

I have always been a supporter of SYD-SFO getting an A380 a few days a week but I could also see them doing something totally outside the box like SYD-SCL with a drop back to 3wk at the same time. Such an arrangement would not be perfect but it might be the best short-term solution to maximise the fleet until they have more 789s flying.
 
getluv
Posts: 554
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:13 pm

tortugamon wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
What is their net profit after tax? As that a truly comparable figure..


I get frustrated by that to. Here you go:

"Qantas has posted a 25 per cent profit slide, amid competitive pressures and ongoing redundancy payments as part of its "transformation program".

The airline posted a first-half statutory net profit after tax of $515 million, down by a quarter on last year's $688 million interim result."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-23/q ... ts/8295650

tortugamon


You have to exclude one off gains/losses, otherwise you're not getting like-for-like figures. So it's around 7-8% lower. Analysts prefer other metrics other than profit after tax.
I'm that bad type.
 
getluv
Posts: 554
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:36 pm

I think with QF going through the effort of operating their own lounge at LHR means they're getting more serious about future endeavours at LHR. QF9/10 are not going to be touched, because even EK needs the extra DXB-LHR capacity.
I'm that bad type.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2446
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sun Feb 26, 2017 8:12 pm

getluv wrote:
I think with QF going through the effort of operating their own lounge at LHR means they're getting more serious about future endeavours at LHR. QF9/10 are not going to be touched, because even EK needs the extra DXB-LHR capacity.

A very valid point - lounge space in LHR must cost a fortune in rent.

I wonder could we see SYD-JNB move to a 789 picking up all the SYD local traffic, and PER-JNB picking up Perth local and any domestic connections. Capacity could slightly increase. I'd imagine JNB would do well in the premium cabins.
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 8107
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:59 pm

I can't see PER-JNB happening before 2020 at the earliest for the simple reason that their current fleet plan does not give them enough planes to fly their current network before you even think about new routes.

I have to agree with qf002, so long as fuel stays cheap (and they aren't facing an iminent D check - which now I think about it might be the killer) then the 747s retirement will probably be deferred again. They were supposed to be down to 9 frames by 2012 so we're already 5 years late! The oddballs OEM and OJM will probably be retired ASAP, but I honestly think that OJS/T/U will stay in the fleet longer than Qantas' current fleet plan.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4040
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Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:36 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
I can't see PER-JNB happening before 2020 at the earliest for the simple reason that their current fleet plan does not give them enough planes to fly their current network before you even think about new routes.

Agreed, especially if you consider potential fleet refurbishment as well. Welcome back btw, I've missed your input here.
First to fly the 787-9
 
qantas747
Posts: 377
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2000 12:51 pm

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:06 pm

Perhaps a 3-4x weekly PER-JNB on a 332 could work? If the rumours of the international 332 refurbs are true this could form an option.

I definately think JNB will go to a 789 eventually as will SCL. Just need to get ETOPS330 for it and I think a more leisure heavy config (ie 30J 21W 221Y) 272 total.
 
travelhound
Posts: 1923
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Mon Feb 27, 2017 8:07 pm

This is just a guess!

With both United and Delta deciding to retire their 744's, support and spare parts for the type at US airports may be coming to a stage where they would be logistically difficult to maintain. For example a simple instrument failure requiring replacement of a module could delay an aircraft because 1) the part is not readily available and 2) there is no licensed mechanic to perform the work.

If this is the case than QANTAS could have decided it is best to retire the aircraft, even though they still have economic value so that they remove the risk of poor schedule performance.
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 8107
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:20 pm

Qantas have an in-house maintenance base in LAX! While primarily A380 line maintenance they will continue to support their 747 fleet so long as they choose to operate them there, and worse case scenario you get the part dispatched from Seattle in a few hours.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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sunrisevalley
Posts: 5392
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:26 am

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:20 pm

qantas747 wrote:
Would 3-4 months operating MEL-LAX be enough to certify for ETOPS330 to JNB? ...


They would need to do a year at EDTO 240 first.
 
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sunrisevalley
Posts: 5392
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:26 am

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:40 pm

The 789 would be TOW limited to about 235t out of JNB . Eastbound JNB-SYD is about 12hrs with typical tail winds so the payload would be pretty good at about 38t.
 
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qfvhoqa
Posts: 867
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 6:50 am

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Tue Feb 28, 2017 12:12 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Qantas have an in-house maintenance base in LAX! While primarily A380 line maintenance they will continue to support their 747 fleet so long as they choose to operate them there, and worse case scenario you get the part dispatched from Seattle in a few hours.

Agreed - you can't really get much closer to the source than flying to the US!
BA manage several 747 departures per day from airports that DL/UA don't serve with 747, QF should be able to do so too. I don't think QF will be the sole 747 operator at any of their US destinations for some time (if ever).
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5044
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

Tue Feb 28, 2017 12:16 am

sunrisevalley wrote:
qantas747 wrote:
Would 3-4 months operating MEL-LAX be enough to certify for ETOPS330 to JNB? ...


They would need to do a year at EDTO 240 first.

That's assuming CASA comes to the party! I know they said they would, but as I have said before I'll believe it one months after regular commercial service starts.

Gemuser

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