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rookie00
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YWG Air Service discussion

Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:03 am

Hey guys! I thought for my first post on Airliners.net I would post a prediction of future routes at my local airport. Here's a few facts about YWG and Winnipeg in general... So Manitoba has a population of around 1.3 Million people with about 800k people living in Winnipeg. YWG just passed 4mil passengers in 2016 which broke a record for passenger traffic.

International
YWG-MNL : Winnipeg has the 4th largest population of people from the Philippines in Canada
YWG-KEF : Gimli, Manitoba is home to the largest Icelandic population outside of Iceland
YWG-MEX : Aeromexico announced service to Calgary a couple months ago and if that route works out well I can see them branching out into more new markets like YEG, YOW and YWG


Domestic
YWG-YQB : I can see this route happening in a few years when the C-series begins operation in Canada
YWG-YYJ : ^
YWG-YYT : ^

US
YWG-SEA : If the YWG-MSP route continues to operate well perhaps one day there will be a direct flight to one off Deltas other hubs. Manitoba is also home to alot of aerospace companies that could use the route for connections with Boeing,
YWG-LAX : Hollywood
YWG-HNL : Could be a future winter seasonal destination


What other routes do you guys think could be a possibility in the future?
Last edited by SQ22 on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated after merging threads
 
YVRing
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:39 am

I would think HNL anf KEF are the most likely routes. WS to HNL and maybe rouge or one of the iceland airlines to KEF.
 
jmt18325
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:53 am

I would expect that we won't see much in the way of additions for a while. Just more capacity.
 
ACDC8
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:49 am

This reminds me of a comedy skit on TV years ago. A guy flies into YWG in the middle of winter, proceeds through customs and the agent asks him if his trip to YWG in the middle of winter is "business" or "pleasure" - the man just said he gave her a blank stare and replied ... "Winnipeg, in the middle of winter? Pleasure?"
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
diverted
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:50 pm

I always found it odd that YWG could never sustain at least an AC FRA rotation. It serves roughly the same number of pax as YHZ, which has multiple Europe destinations (Granted many are summer only) and has nearly twice the number of aircraft movements to YHZ.

Obviously geography plays a part, but there's a huge number of pax coming out of Northern Manitoba and Nunavut, and it's not like you have any other major airports near there, unless you count MSP/ YYC/ and YYZ.

Anyways, just seems odd they can't at least do something seasonal summer, but then again, our airlines would prefer to have everyone connect in YYZ/YUL/YYC.
 
rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:35 pm

diverted wrote:
I always found it odd that YWG could never sustain at least an AC FRA rotation. It serves roughly the same number of pax as YHZ, which has multiple Europe destinations (Granted many are summer only) and has nearly twice the number of aircraft movements to YHZ.

Obviously geography plays a part, but there's a huge number of pax coming out of Northern Manitoba and Nunavut, and it's not like you have any other major airports near there, unless you count MSP/ YYC/ and YYZ.

Anyways, just seems odd they can't at least do something seasonal summer, but then again, our airlines would prefer to have everyone connect in YYZ/YUL/YYC.


I think one of the main reasons why YHZ has many more flights to Europe then YWG is it's close proximity. As for FRA perhaps one day Condor could link a few days a week FRA-YWG
 
diverted
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:57 pm

rookie00 wrote:
diverted wrote:
I always found it odd that YWG could never sustain at least an AC FRA rotation. It serves roughly the same number of pax as YHZ, which has multiple Europe destinations (Granted many are summer only) and has nearly twice the number of aircraft movements to YHZ.

Obviously geography plays a part, but there's a huge number of pax coming out of Northern Manitoba and Nunavut, and it's not like you have any other major airports near there, unless you count MSP/ YYC/ and YYZ.

Anyways, just seems odd they can't at least do something seasonal summer, but then again, our airlines would prefer to have everyone connect in YYZ/YUL/YYC.


I think one of the main reasons why YHZ has many more flights to Europe then YWG is it's close proximity. As for FRA perhaps one day Condor could link a few days a week FRA-YWG


Oh absolutely, the economics of a 737 can make YHZ work, same reason YYT works for AC on the 319. But heck, even YQB with 1.5M pax a year can support a seasonal TS flight to CDG. Of course there's the french connection, but you'd think FI could do a KEF turn a few times a week, AC to FRA, TS to LGW or something. Of course the airlines have all the data on who's O&D, and who's connecting to where, and they've run the numbers, but it just always seemed odd to me that YWG can't support even a season TATL flight.
 
rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:33 pm

With new aircraft like the A321LR and 737MAX coming online soon,I think more routes to Europe might be more sustainable then if they were flown with widebodies
 
NichCage
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:15 pm

How is WestJet doing on the LGW route?
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:32 pm

I may be way off here, but I think YWG would be a good base/hub for Porter if and when they get the C-Series and maybe a few more Q400s. Its basically in the center of the country, well positioned for a proper little hublet, gate space notwithstanding. Now, there are plenty of flights from Western Canada to the East that overfly YWG, but YVR/YEG/YYC/YXE/YQR feeding into YWG and on to YYZ/YUL/YOW/YQT/MDW might be a nice little operation. I also feel that YOW would make another nice hublet for Porter, linking Eastern Canada with the West since jets at YTZ are a non-starter for the time being.
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:01 am

NichCage wrote:
How is WestJet doing on the LGW route?


From what i've heard It operated pretty well last year. Westjet is bringing the 1x weekly flight back this summer but has shortened the season.

OzarkD9S wrote:
I may be way off here, but I think YWG would be a good base/hub for Porter if and when they get the C-Series and maybe a few more Q400s. Its basically in the center of the country, well positioned for a proper little hublet, gate space notwithstanding. Now, there are plenty of flights from Western Canada to the East that overfly YWG, but YVR/YEG/YYC/YXE/YQR feeding into YWG and on to YYZ/YUL/YOW/YQT/MDW might be a nice little operation. I also feel that YOW would make another nice hublet for Porter, linking Eastern Canada with the West since jets at YTZ are a non-starter for the time being.



I agree. Either Winnipeg or Ottawa would be nice hubs for Porter. Perhaps If they do end up taking the C-Series both would be hubs.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:40 am

I fully agree rookie00. AC and WS have shown that YOW will never grow unless a 3rd player is a serious threat to them. YOW grew by a million pax in PD's early years but has stagnated since PD stopped growing. YWG stagnated for years until the threat of New Leaf came along and now they've surpassed 4 million pax for the first time ever. YOW would easily hit 6 million pax a year within 5 years with a small 60-70 flight per day hub...not exactly far-fetched considering they've been at 20-24 per day for years.

Even PD are down a bit thanks to cutting YYT this winter.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:23 am

I'm trying to follow the logic of any of this and I can't do it:

rookie00 wrote:
YWG-MNL : Winnipeg has the 4th largest population of people from the Philippines in Canada


City #2 in Philippine population lacks daily service and city #3 lacks any service. Why would city #4 get service and who would fly it? AC has a limited number of planes with YWG to MNL range and Westjet has none.

rookie00 wrote:
YWG-LAX : Hollywood


"Hollywood?" Do airline executives look at a map, say "Hollywood, baby!", and add flights to LAX? What is the connection between Winnipeg and Hollywood?
 
rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:00 am

IPFreely wrote:
I'm trying to follow the logic of any of this and I can't do it:

rookie00 wrote:
YWG-MNL : Winnipeg has the 4th largest population of people from the Philippines in Canada


City #2 in Philippine population lacks daily service and city #3 lacks any service. Why would city #4 get service and who would fly it? AC has a limited number of planes with YWG to MNL range and Westjet has none.

rookie00 wrote:
YWG-LAX : Hollywood


"Hollywood?" Do airline executives look at a map, say "Hollywood, baby!", and add flights to LAX? What is the connection between Winnipeg and Hollywood?


Winnipeg has about 60k Filipinos living in the city. Surely that could support a few weekly flights.

As for LAX... The movie " A dog's purpose" which came out in January was filmed in Winnipeg. If we had a direct flight perhaps it would attract more films.On the other hand Canadians like warmer weather in the winter so they tend to go south. LA may not be the hottest in the winter time but surely people still go to see the "tourist areas" (example being Hollywood).
 
rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:00 am

rookie00 wrote:
International
YWG-MNL : Winnipeg has the 4th largest population of people from the Philippines in Canada


My bad... Winnipeg has the 3rd largest population of Filipinos in Canada.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:29 am

rookie00 wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
I'm trying to follow the logic of any of this and I can't do it:

rookie00 wrote:
YWG-MNL : Winnipeg has the 4th largest population of people from the Philippines in Canada


City #2 in Philippine population lacks daily service and city #3 lacks any service. Why would city #4 get service and who would fly it? AC has a limited number of planes with YWG to MNL range and Westjet has none.

rookie00 wrote:
YWG-LAX : Hollywood


"Hollywood?" Do airline executives look at a map, say "Hollywood, baby!", and add flights to LAX? What is the connection between Winnipeg and Hollywood?


Winnipeg has about 60k Filipinos living in the city. Surely that could support a few weekly flights.

As for LAX... The movie " A dog's purpose" which came out in January was filmed in Winnipeg. If we had a direct flight perhaps it would attract more films.On the other hand Canadians like warmer weather in the winter so they tend to go south. LA may not be the hottest in the winter time but surely people still go to see the "tourist areas" (example being Hollywood).

60k Filipinos is not many. Let's even say a 3x weekly flight, you're talking about 46,800 seats a year on a 300 seat aircraft. I highly doubt near that number fly back yearly. And even if they did, they will be very price sensitive making this a no-go.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:43 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
rookie00 wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
I'm trying to follow the logic of any of this and I can't do it:



City #2 in Philippine population lacks daily service and city #3 lacks any service. Why would city #4 get service and who would fly it? AC has a limited number of planes with YWG to MNL range and Westjet has none.



"Hollywood?" Do airline executives look at a map, say "Hollywood, baby!", and add flights to LAX? What is the connection between Winnipeg and Hollywood?


Winnipeg has about 60k Filipinos living in the city. Surely that could support a few weekly flights.

As for LAX... The movie " A dog's purpose" which came out in January was filmed in Winnipeg. If we had a direct flight perhaps it would attract more films.On the other hand Canadians like warmer weather in the winter so they tend to go south. LA may not be the hottest in the winter time but surely people still go to see the "tourist areas" (example being Hollywood).

60k Filipinos is not many. Let's even say a 3x weekly flight, you're talking about 46,800 seats a year on a 300 seat aircraft. I highly doubt near that number fly back yearly. And even if they did, they will be very price sensitive making this a no-go.


I agree with what your saying about how there could be an abundance of seats and the price may be high but the flight doesn't have to be a year round flight. It could just be a 1x weekly seasonal flight like Westjet has to LGW

I added YWG-MNL to this thread due to an article that came up a couple years ago from CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/direct-flight-eyed-between-winnipeg-and-philippines-1.2669608

In the article CBC states that MNL is YWG's largest international market.
 
ACDC8
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:46 am

rookie00 wrote:

Winnipeg has about 60k Filipinos living in the city. Surely that could support a few weekly flights.

I'm sorry, I mean no disrespect with this, but shouldn't it be pretty obvious that if it could support a few weekly flights then there would be? I mean, airlines are after one thing - money - if there were money there then they would be there.
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
ryan78
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:53 pm

Unfortunately YWG is in the position for easy connections East via YYZ/YUL and West via YYC/YEG/YVR. You can essentially reach almost any major city in the world from YWG with a 1 stop connection. MNL, HNL, LAX, YYJ are served just fine via YVR or YYC, and YQB & YYT through YYZ.

MEX would be a long shot, I'm not sure what the Mexican population is like in Manitoba, and also Winnipeg isn't exactly an attractive tourist destination for Mexicans when they can choose between YVR, YYC, YYZ and YUL with Aeromexico. I mean I like Winnipeg and visit friends there quite often, but there isn't a whole lot to do or see there.

SEA could work with Delta Connection with a daily CRJ200/700 or E175. But KEF would be the only route I could realistically see happening on a seasonal basis with WOW Air. x2 weekly on the A321 would be a good start. Also I expect Sunwing and Transat will continue to offer more flights each winter to the Caribbean as they have both slowly increased capacity each year in YWG.
 
jmt18325
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:06 pm

There's actually a great deal to do in Winnipeg (and Edmonton) in terms of festivals that you don't see in other places. There is also now a national museum in Winnipeg which draws extra people. The outdoor sites within a few hours drive Also have started to draw more people to Manitoba. This, coupled with visa free travel for Mexicans makes MEX probably one of the only possibilities outside of KEF and more Caribbean destinations.
 
Skywatcher
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:38 pm

I could see a seasonal KEF link as well but the rest is not really feasible in my opinion. Winnipeg is growing a little faster lately with the Filipino immigration but I'm not sure that's going to drive much traffic given the lowish purchasing power that the community currently has. Other than that the demographic/economic potential in Winnipeg is not great. I suspect that any future service additions will be modest. Sorry to sound a bit negative but YWG actually has pretty good service for the market demands already.
 
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Vio
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 6:01 pm

rookie00 wrote:
Hey guys! I thought for my first post on Airliners.net I would post a prediction of future routes at my local airport. Here's a few facts about YWG and Winnipeg in general... So Manitoba has a population of around 1.3 Million people with about 800k people living in Winnipeg. YWG just passed 4mil passengers in 2016 which broke a record for passenger traffic.

International
YWG-MNL : Winnipeg has the 4th largest population of people from the Philippines in Canada
YWG-KEF : Gimli, Manitoba is home to the largest Icelandic population outside of Iceland
YWG-MEX : Aeromexico announced service to Calgary a couple months ago and if that route works out well I can see them branching out into more new markets like YEG, YOW and YWG


Domestic
YWG-YQB : I can see this route happening in a few years when the C-series begins operation in Canada
YWG-YYJ : ^
YWG-YYT : ^

US
YWG-SEA : If the YWG-MSP route continues to operate well perhaps one day there will be a direct flight to one off Deltas other hubs. Manitoba is also home to alot of aerospace companies that could use the route for connections with Boeing,
YWG-LAX : Hollywood
YWG-HNL : Could be a future winter seasonal destination


What other routes do you guys think could be a possibility in the future?



Yeah.... No. None of this will happen. The only expansion you'll get is somewhere where the government pays for the passengers' flights... It's nice to dream though. Are you kidding me? Winnipeg - Manila? No... not even close. They can't even make YVR / YYZ work without each other. The only way it'll work if Philippine Airlines will fly MNL-YVR-YWG-YYZ (and return)

This post gave me a good chuckle though. Winnipeg is going nowhere my friend. Trust me. I've lived there for 6 years and flew out of YWG for 5... It'll remain a gateway to Northern MB and Kivalliq region, but that's it.
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:41 pm

Vio wrote:
rookie00 wrote:
Hey guys! I thought for my first post on Airliners.net I would post a prediction of future routes at my local airport. Here's a few facts about YWG and Winnipeg in general... So Manitoba has a population of around 1.3 Million people with about 800k people living in Winnipeg. YWG just passed 4mil passengers in 2016 which broke a record for passenger traffic.

International
YWG-MNL : Winnipeg has the 4th largest population of people from the Philippines in Canada
YWG-KEF : Gimli, Manitoba is home to the largest Icelandic population outside of Iceland
YWG-MEX : Aeromexico announced service to Calgary a couple months ago and if that route works out well I can see them branching out into more new markets like YEG, YOW and YWG


Domestic
YWG-YQB : I can see this route happening in a few years when the C-series begins operation in Canada
YWG-YYJ : ^
YWG-YYT : ^

US
YWG-SEA : If the YWG-MSP route continues to operate well perhaps one day there will be a direct flight to one off Deltas other hubs. Manitoba is also home to alot of aerospace companies that could use the route for connections with Boeing,
YWG-LAX : Hollywood
YWG-HNL : Could be a future winter seasonal destination


What other routes do you guys think could be a possibility in the future?



Yeah.... No. None of this will happen. The only expansion you'll get is somewhere where the government pays for the passengers' flights... It's nice to dream though. Are you kidding me? Winnipeg - Manila? No... not even close. They can't even make YVR / YYZ work without each other. The only way it'll work if Philippine Airlines will fly MNL-YVR-YWG-YYZ (and return)

This post gave me a good chuckle though. Winnipeg is going nowhere my friend. Trust me. I've lived there for 6 years and flew out of YWG for 5... It'll remain a gateway to Northern MB and Kivalliq region, but that's it.


The whole point of this thread is for "future" service to Winnipeg... For starters I realize out of the list some routes are more realistic then others but I never said these were happening any time soon. Secondly If you look at the service we had a few years ago compared to now, it's a big difference in service. Examples: Westjet to LGW is our first Non-North American destination in some years. New leaf also entered the market last year which led to new domestic destinations, This year there are 2 proposed airlines ( Jetlines and Fly Too) that will almost certainly add to the recent success YWG has been having. Some may question why I added YWG-LAX but If you look at Jetlines proposed route map they have a flight to Ontario, California so instead of added every airport surrounding LA that could possibly support a flight I just put the bigger of the airports. With the YWG-MNL flight I added a article a few comments up explaining why I put that flight on the list. Not sure what you are talking about with a MNL-YVR-YWG-YYZ flight? Currently PAL flys to JFK and YYZ, both flights have a stop over in Vancouver so adding a flight onward to YWG from YVR couldn't be that hard.
 
globalcabotage
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:24 pm

How about AA back to ORD and 1 to DFW?
 
qblue
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:47 pm

Does YWG still have HNL winter charters. At one time Wardair had 2 weekly flights one nonstop 747 and DC10 with a stop in Victoria or YVR. AC had 747 nonstop and NW thru MSP.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:29 am

Always found it interesting that Winnipeg has winter service to Fort Lauderdale, and that WestJet route has been around for quite a while now.

I could see WestJet to LAX working but WS seems to concentrate most secondary city transborder to just four cities - LAS, PHX, FLL and MCO.
a.
 
rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:18 am

qblue wrote:
Does YWG still have HNL winter charters. At one time Wardair had 2 weekly flights one nonstop 747 and DC10 with a stop in Victoria or YVR. AC had 747 nonstop and NW thru MSP.


No flights to Hawaii currently at YWG

globalcabotage wrote:
How about AA back to ORD and 1 to DFW?


Could be interesting. I could see a envoy flight to ORD working in the future and If it's successful perhaps they would expand to DFW.

MAH4546 wrote:
Always found it interesting that Winnipeg has winter service to Fort Lauderdale, and that WestJet route has been around for quite a while now.

I could see WestJet to LAX working but WS seems to concentrate most secondary city transborder to just four cities - LAS, PHX, FLL and MCO.


They do seem to focus on those cities however If you look back about a month ago when New Leaf tried to launch flights to Mesa-Gateway Westjet almost immediately launched the same route. Perhaps if Jetlines does indeed start flying and fly's to ONT Westjet would counter with a flight to LAX
 
Dominion301
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 2:51 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
rookie00 wrote:

Winnipeg has about 60k Filipinos living in the city. Surely that could support a few weekly flights.

I'm sorry, I mean no disrespect with this, but shouldn't it be pretty obvious that if it could support a few weekly flights then there would be? I mean, airlines are after one thing - money - if there were money there then they would be there.


While YWG-MNL is 99.99% likely to never happen (even if the bilateral allows for 3 Canadian cities served, along with unlimited 5th freedom route options), there's that a.net myth that if the demand were there, a flight would already exist. The myth assumes that airlines have already exploited every possible opportunity already.
 
jimbo737
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 4:27 pm

I wouldn't be basing future YWG plans on the basis of what the supposed ULCC's are up to.

New Leaf is being squeezed like an inflamed pimple by WJ and has contracted to almost an afterthought. With every contraction, the ability to focus on the remanents becomes that much easier. They are going to struggle to make it until the summer travel season and that's assuming their investors are prepared to continue shoveling cash into the boiler to keep it going in the first place.

Jetlines has been trying to get going since at least late 2013 and still struggles to find cash. They recently, (supposedly), found enough suckers to pour c$7m into it, however, keep in mind that WJ's first cash raise in May 1995, 22 years ago, was that amount and WJ had to raise about c$20m more to get off the ground. In 2017, the cash required to launch would be pretty close to double to the what WJ raised in 1996.

We have yet to see an influx of any foreign cash in spite of the new rules announced close to 6 months ago. Foreign investors hate losing money as much as domestic investors. The really smart money understands that, unlike other markets, it is not possible to achieve the stage length adjusted casm delta necessary for success in Canada. WJ's casm, though not as low as it should be, is still pretty low.

WJ's very aggressive response to New Leaf will have a sobering effect on anyone else's ability to raise cash. All the new entrants have been selling the concept that there will be a response, but undersold the depth of the response, which has been as aggressive as any response I've ever seen in years. WJ still have some formidable weapons in their arsenal.
 
ZBBYLW
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:26 pm

YWG has lots of potential I think adding extra frequencies to already served routes but outside of that I think opportunities are limited. WS and AC fly to most of the bigger spots in Canada from Winnipeg. Westjet does connect people down to sun destinations and AC does connect people as well. The two airlines have a small (relative to other airports) sun destination schedule.

My two cents is perhaps if Rouge is expanded you may see winter flights to places such as MCO, FLL (Weekend/cruise ship days only), LAS (maybe) initially with a potential for some package vacation destinations (Cuba primarily). I'd love to see a few flights to YYQ during polar bear season, but it would never happen.

With Westjet I could see perhaps a bit more sun destination work. Encore may allow a bit more flying (say YTH?) otherwise nothing really new.

Sunwing/Air Transat will continue with seasonal vacation flights.

Otherwise what I could see is extra frequencies/upgrades (perhaps 767s from AC in the summer, though the seating density is not right for the market as YWG does have many price sensitive fliers).

Would be interesting to see Encore or Jazz give YTH a go, but I'd rather see Calm Air do well.
Keep the shinny side up!
 
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yyz717
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:30 pm

YWG-EWR 1x daily with CRJ/ERJ or maybe E175 (either AC or UA) seems logical to me. AC flew daily YWG-JFK in the early 70's with DC-8/722 equipment.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
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yyz717
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:32 pm

I could see Porter adding 2x daily service to YWG from YTZ and/or YOW. YTZ-YWG might be capacity constrained due to the short YTZ runway unless it stopped in YQT for refueling (or extend 1 or 2 of the 5x daily YTZ-YQT to YWG).
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
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yyz717
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:36 pm

I agree with YWG-KEF being likely. Perhaps once Icelandair has the Max 8 in service, we will see YWG added to their network.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
DakotaFlyer
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:09 pm

I live near GFK, but really enjoy flying YWG. The terminal is nice, easy to navigate, and offers so many years more options thend my local airport. Sometimes it is even cheaper to fly from Winnipeg then GFK or FAR aftet the exchange rate conversation.
 
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canadianpylon
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:50 pm

rookie00 wrote:
diverted wrote:
I always found it odd that YWG could never sustain at least an AC FRA rotation. It serves roughly the same number of pax as YHZ, which has multiple Europe destinations (Granted many are summer only) and has nearly twice the number of aircraft movements to YHZ.

Obviously geography plays a part, but there's a huge number of pax coming out of Northern Manitoba and Nunavut, and it's not like you have any other major airports near there, unless you count MSP/ YYC/ and YYZ.

Anyways, just seems odd they can't at least do something seasonal summer, but then again, our airlines would prefer to have everyone connect in YYZ/YUL/YYC.


I think one of the main reasons why YHZ has many more flights to Europe then YWG is it's close proximity. As for FRA perhaps one day Condor could link a few days a week FRA-YWG


There is a lot of lobster going out on those flights to Europe as well. YWG doesn't have an equivalent.

Being a local 'Pegger, I also have high aspirations for the airport and the city. Unfortunately, there are a lot of negatives to overcome:

1) Isolation: There aren't many close cities lacking service that can be used to help fill flights that don't have enough O&D. Regina and Saskatoon are equally/better served by YYC, which has a WS hub and AC focus city. Thunder Bay might be better served to western destinations, but it is still far away (and has more options to Toronto for eastern connections.)

2) Good connections: As has been stated before, you can get to most anywhere via good connections on multiple airlines (WS, AC, DL.) A glaring hole, IMO, is AA. Maybe a flight to ORD and DFW.

3) The Hollywood connection is real, and likely going to get stronger with the weak CDN dollar. It is NOT on the same level as Vancouver, Toronto, or Montreal, though. The budgets for the movies made here are mostly TV movies and low-budget movies. WS tried a 3x weekly LAX flight years ago, but IIRC, they cancelled it before it got off the ground.

4) Manitoba is NOT a destination of choice for travelers: There are many better known options in Canada to foreigners (Calgary/Banff, Vancouver/Whistler, Montreal, Toronto, Atlantic Canada) than the Canadian prairies. Yes there are things to do here, but Winnipeg becomes a ghost town in the summer as everyone runs for the lakes and cottages to go camping. And during the winter cold (which can be up to 5 months long), everyone here runs south.

5) Winnipeg doesn't have a great reputation ('It's cold', 'It's got lots of mosquitoes','It floods all the time', 'It's the murder capital of Canada', etc...). Winnipeggers are the worst for perpetuating this, as we seem to take some sort of joy out of self-depreciating the city we live in.

Winnipeg has a surprisingly strong business community, but that may also part of the reason why fares are higher here. (Before everyone screams 'SOURCE!', I'll have to go find the article in the Free Press that was talking about the need for a ULCC here as YWG had some of the highest fares in the country.)

I don't think you'll have to try to hard to get people on Winnipeg to fly somewhere else for a vacation, but you will have trouble trying to convince people in those destinations to come to Winnipeg. That would make every route lopsided in terms of appeal and more difficult to sell.

With that said, I think there is a realistic set of flights that could be possible:

YWG-LAX: At least daily.
YWG-NYC: It's the largest unserved market in North America from YWG.
YWG-YYJ: Lots of VFR both ways for this flight (many ex-pats live in YYJ area.) Some military as well (Air Command to Pacific Naval, etc...)
YWG-YHZ: WestJet does this seasonally. Could be helped by the strong military presence at both ends this flight.
YWG-ORD(AA): The market to ORD is small and served by UA. This would only be to connect onwards to somewhere else on AA.
Always looking for the longest route with the most transfers.
 
jmt18325
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 8:08 pm

Just a correction - YYC is a hub for Air Canada, not a focus city. Also, New Leaf tried to serve YYJ, but had to drop it despite not having any competition. Still, it is now the largest un-served destination in terms of where passengers fly and having a direct flight from YWG. Halifax has, besides the summer Westjet flight, year round one stop direct flights from Winnipeg (same flight number and plane through YOW and YUL) on Air Canada. That's not so bad, IMO.

As for being a ghost town in the summer - never experienced that. The exchange and the forks in the last few years have been just bursting with people. Apparently, the direct flight on Westjet last year also brought a lot of UK tourism.
 
jmt18325
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 8:18 pm

Here's an interesting one - will WS keep their daily flights to Abbotsford and Hamilton if (when) Newleaf folds?
 
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canadianpylon
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:16 pm

jmt18325 wrote:
Just a correction - YYC is a hub for Air Canada, not a focus city. Also, New Leaf tried to serve YYJ, but had to drop it despite not having any competition. Still, it is now the largest un-served destination in terms of where passengers fly and having a direct flight from YWG. Halifax has, besides the summer Westjet flight, year round one stop direct flights from Winnipeg (same flight number and plane through YOW and YUL) on Air Canada. That's not so bad, IMO.

As for being a ghost town in the summer - never experienced that. The exchange and the forks in the last few years have been just bursting with people. Apparently, the direct flight on Westjet last year also brought a lot of UK tourism.


My mistake about YYC. They've updated their literature to include Calgary.

As for New Leaf, there 1x or 2x flights a week... yeah. Well, that works for going to Orlando or Las Vegas. Victoria is not that popular of a destination from Winnipeg. I'd use their flights if I could go a few days instead of a week. Maybe have flights on Fridays and Mondays instead of midweek?

From all accounts NewLeaf isn't going to be around much longer anyways. Too bad, though.
Always looking for the longest route with the most transfers.
 
rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:43 pm

yyz717 wrote:
I could see Porter adding 2x daily service to YWG from YTZ and/or YOW. YTZ-YWG might be capacity constrained due to the short YTZ runway unless it stopped in YQT for refueling (or extend 1 or 2 of the 5x daily YTZ-YQT to YWG).


They tested a flight from YTZ and YOW a few months ago for some kind of convention that was in the city. Perhaps one day they will start flying into YWG on a more regular basis.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 12:57 am

yyz717 wrote:
I could see Porter adding 2x daily service to YWG from YTZ and/or YOW. YTZ-YWG might be capacity constrained due to the short YTZ runway unless it stopped in YQT for refueling (or extend 1 or 2 of the 5x daily YTZ-YQT to YWG).


Me too and as early as this summer. YTZ-YOW is only loaded at 14x this summer and YTZ-YUL is only 13x. With 3 additional Q400s in the fleet, something doesn't add up (I.e. The triangle doesn't have enough frequency unless the slots are being shifted to open a new city) I could see a 2-3x daily YOW-YWG, including a frequency pit stopping at YSB along with 3x daily YTZ-YWG with enroute stops at YQT, YSB and YAM.

YOW-YWG is definitely underserved considering the route had way more capacity on it 30 years ago than it does nowadays.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 1:01 am

yyz717 wrote:
I agree with YWG-KEF being likely. Perhaps once Icelandair has the Max 8 in service, we will see YWG added to their network.


Totally agree. Both YWG and YOW should see Icelandair once the MAX arrives as both are severely underserved transatlantic markets.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 2:03 am

Did YWG ever have service in the NW days to DTW?
 
mel
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 3:01 am

NW only served YWGDTW once per week (on weekends) in Summer with a 50-seat CRJ.
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rookie00
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 1:33 pm

I know that this would probably will never happen with DL slowly phasing out 50 seater jets, but it would be cool if one day YWG got this flight back.
 
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dabpit
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 2:28 pm

YWG is a nice airport and I hope they are able to get some more service.
My predictions:
*Porter starts domestic flights
*WS adds LAX a few times per week
*WS adds NYC a few times per week
*DL adds SEA on regional
*AA adds ORD on regional
*AA adds DFW on regional
*WOWair to KEF year round (the strongest possibility)
Carpe Diem
 
jmt18325
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 2:30 pm

I don't see anything US for at least 5 years. Transborder numbers are at their lowest since 2005.
 
Flighty
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 2:32 pm

YWG-MNL could be very profitable. To do that, you'd have to fully legalize the traffic of drugs and guns on the route. And human traffic.
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:01 pm

DakotaFlyer wrote:
I live near GFK, but really enjoy flying YWG. The terminal is nice, easy to navigate, and offers so many years more options thend my local airport. Sometimes it is even cheaper to fly from Winnipeg then GFK or FAR aftet the exchange rate conversation.

For every person that goes to YWG I bet 5 come down here. Sometimes when parking at GFK one could think they made a wrong turn and ended up in Manitoba.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
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yyz717
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:12 pm

rookie00 wrote:
yyz717 wrote:
I could see Porter adding 2x daily service to YWG from YTZ and/or YOW. YTZ-YWG might be capacity constrained due to the short YTZ runway unless it stopped in YQT for refueling (or extend 1 or 2 of the 5x daily YTZ-YQT to YWG).


They tested a flight from YTZ and YOW a few months ago for some kind of convention that was in the city. Perhaps one day they will start flying into YWG on a more regular basis.


That was for the federal liberal party convention in Winnipeg last May. I hope PD is still considering YWG service.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
UA772IAD
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Re: Future Air Service discussion YWG

Tue Feb 28, 2017 6:08 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
ACDC8 wrote:
rookie00 wrote:

Winnipeg has about 60k Filipinos living in the city. Surely that could support a few weekly flights.

I'm sorry, I mean no disrespect with this, but shouldn't it be pretty obvious that if it could support a few weekly flights then there would be? I mean, airlines are after one thing - money - if there were money there then they would be there.


While YWG-MNL is 99.99% likely to never happen (even if the bilateral allows for 3 Canadian cities served, along with unlimited 5th freedom route options), there's that a.net myth that if the demand were there, a flight would already exist. The myth assumes that airlines have already exploited every possible opportunity already.


But the larger a.net lore is that because there is a foreign national population somewhere there is demand for a non-stop flight. Filipinos have many immigration streams available to them to come to Canada. Many of them come for economic opportunity not available at home, or to be near relatives who have made the move. Traveling home may not happen as often as people assume, particularly if they are trying to stay and work on a more permanent basis. And this isn't just limited to Filipinos...

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