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stratocruiser
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Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 1:28 pm

It seems to me that the market for the 777-800X may really be quite tight, not only being squeezed on one side by Airbus with its A350-900 but, on the other side, by Boeing itself with its 787-1000. At the moment Boeing has only 53 orders for the 800X, all from the ME3 who I presume are planning to use them mainly for ultra long haul routes. I know the 787-1000 does not have the range of the 777-800X, which is essentially an ultra long haul airliner, but it is similar in terms of passenger capacity. I suspect that most airlines looking to add an aircraft in that capacity region will be quite happy with the range offered by the 787-1000 which will nicely suit the majority of long haul routes and offer better seat mile costs that the -800X.

The ultra long haul market has seen a resurgence recently with the availability of more efficient airliners such as the A350-900 and 787-900 but I suspect it will always be a relatively limited niche market and, given the costs of hauling all the extra fuel required for ULH, it might only take a moderate increase in fuel costs to destabilise it again. This leaves me wondering will we possibly see the 777-800X go the way of the A350-800 and never actually reach the production stage? Would be interest to hear the views of other on this?

Bill
Last edited by SQ22 on Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 1:41 pm

It will probably be the base for a freighter version once the 777-200F and 747-8F are phased out of production. The market for ultra long range aircraft is small, but it looks like Emirates at least does want the plane. I don't see it filling more than a niche, but the niche exists.
 
anshabhi
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:05 pm

SpiceJet is an Indian low cost carrier, which is planning long haul operations. If they are a success, it might take them to fly ULH India-NA.
 
rufusmi
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:16 pm

One little thing.

There's no such thing as a 787-1000 or a 777-800X. It's a 787-10 and a 777-8. That's what they are called.
 
VC10er
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:29 pm

Aside from capacity, fuel, and cost...What are the amount of hours at the far end of a ULH flight? 18? More? When Singapore had EWR to SIN it was the world's longest flight if memory serves...and while the A340-500 was all business class nose to tail, the PRIMARY thing I heard from the folks who had taken that flight was "next time I am going to take a flight with a stop, the flight was way too long" yet and the last 4/5 hours was torture", yet it "seems" that the idea of nonstops from Sao Paulo to Tokyo or NYC or LHR to Sydney sounds great...do people really want that...until aircraft fly much faster? Last, these 777-8X's, can they do those missions without having to go all business class nose to tail?
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:41 pm

VC10er wrote:
Aside from capacity, fuel, and cost...What are the amount of hours at the far end of a ULH flight? 18? More? When Singapore had EWR to SIN it was the world's longest flight if memory serves...and while the A340-500 was all business class nose to tail, the PRIMARY thing I heard from the folks who had taken that flight was "next time I am going to take a flight with a stop, the flight was way too long" yet and the last 4/5 hours was torture", yet it "seems" that the idea of nonstops from Sao Paulo to Tokyo or NYC or LHR to Sydney sounds great...do people really want that...until aircraft fly much faster? Last, these 777-8X's, can they do those missions without having to go all business class nose to tail?

20 hours non-stop is much better than 30-hours with stop(s), it save you a day for a trip...Not sure who you've heard from about not to take the flight again but that does not match my general imperssion of people's opinion on that...
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Newbiepilot
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:56 pm

The 777-8 is also a bit bigger than the 777-200 so it should have a capacity that works well for airlines looking at ultra long haul. The 777-9 could be too much capacity for really long routes. The A359 is a strong competitor for many of the routes that a 777-8 would fly. It is a small list of routes that I can think of where the 777-8 payload and range curve opens up routes where the A359 might be payload limited.

Regarding complaints over long haul flights over 16 hours, I highly prefer them. I have flown New York to Singapore on the SQ nonstop as well as New York to India. The 16 to 18 hour flights are much better when you are in business class. The 15-16 hours nonstop to India is much much better than a 7 hour and 8 hour flight with a transit in the middle if you can sleep. Personally I can sleep well on planes and get a full 8 hours rest on the long haul flight. The shorter flights with two 4 hour rest periods between meals and transits leave me much more exhausted when arriving at my destination. I think opinions differ between those in business class and economy class. There will always be one stop options available for those who prefer.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:41 pm

Suppose one 20 hour flight non-stop
Compare with a quick stop near the middle, fuel only, maybe even on the taxiway, at a secondary, even tertiary airport.

How much fuel is saved with the quick stop, and how much time is lost?
Could replacing the crew at the quick stop mean no need for two crews aboard?
What sort of saving in CASM?
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MrHMSH
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:48 pm

As a relatively simple derivative of the 779, the 778 will probably be OK, it won't pull up trees, but the ULH market is decidedly niche.
 
mig17
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:19 pm

On paper, the 777-8 is only interesting for an airline which will also fly numbers of 777-9, no A350-900 and need ULH capability. That is a pretty small market even for a niche aircraft and even if Qatar and Etihad have already "proved me wrong" by ordering a few.
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:24 pm

We shouldn't forget the potential impact of the possible 787-10ER / Ulh and 777-10.
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:44 pm

holzmann wrote:
We shouldn't forget the potential impact of the possible 787-10ER / Ulh and 777-10.


There won't be any 787-10ER.
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EddieDude
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:41 pm

I imagine Boeing pitting it to AM, SA, AV, and maybe AI, among others.
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bmacleod
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:46 pm

stratocruiser wrote:
The ultra long haul market has seen a resurgence recently with the availability of more efficient airliners such as the A350-900 and 787-900 but I suspect it will always be a relatively limited niche market and, given the costs of hauling all the extra fuel required for ULH, it might only take a moderate increase in fuel costs to destabilise it again. This leaves me wondering will we possibly see the 777-800X go the way of the A350-800 and never actually reach the production stage?



Good point...

According to wikipedia 777X site - there appears to be no 777-8 firm orders outside the Persian Gulf region.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777X#Orders
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:55 pm

mig17 wrote:
On paper, the 777-8 is only interesting for an airline which will also fly numbers of 777-9, no A350-900 and need ULH capability. That is a pretty small market even for a niche aircraft and even if Qatar and Etihad have already "proved me wrong" by ordering a few.

You're missing the most significant one of all: if they want to take payload over that range. The A359ULR won't be of much help to them there.


bmacleod wrote:
According to wikipedia 777X site - there appears to be no 777-8 firm orders outside the Persian Gulf region.

That's still three times more carriers who've ordered the 778, than its primary competitor.

It's far less of a referendum on the aircraft's particular merits, and more on the limited need for an aircraft designed primarily for 18hr+ flights... especially in an era where the likes of an A359standard and 789 can be "abused" into operating flights nearly that long, while offering far more efficiency/versatility on the lower (and much larger) end of the longhaul spectrum.
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keesje
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:59 pm

I think there there will a longer range 787-10. The gap between 787-9 and 777-9 is large and imporatant. Launch of the A350-900LR didn't improve the situation. Both 777-8 and 787-10 seem niche aircraft.
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RL777
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:38 pm

Its still a niche aircraft, although its certainly on track to eclipse the 77L in terms of orders. I suspect it'll probably end up somewhere just shy of 100 frames ordered when all is said and done. With the A350LR also available and strong performance from other aircraft in their respective families, the 778 will be a tough sell for Boeing going forward.
 
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OA940
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:50 pm

*777-8
*787-9/-10

Sorry I'm a grammar nazi and this triggers me so much.

But anyway India-N. America or Europe-Oceania or Perth-America or South America-Oceania are all viable markets for the 778.
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Planesmart
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:01 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Regarding complaints over long haul flights over 16 hours, I highly prefer them. I have flown New York to Singapore on the SQ nonstop as well as New York to India. The 16 to 18 hour flights are much better when you are in business class. The 15-16 hours nonstop to India is much much better than a 7 hour and 8 hour flight with a transit in the middle if you can sleep. Personally I can sleep well on planes and get a full 8 hours rest on the long haul flight.

To make these flights successful, they need to be consistently premium heavy, with good load factors. The struggle will be finding punters in economy, willing to put up with such long periods of torture, and willing/able to pay.

The logistical issue for airlines is significant when they have technical, medical and crew issues. As a frequent long haul traveller, I make a point of transiting through airline hubs, because it's much more likely they will have spare aircraft, crew and engineering capability if a problem arises.

If a diversion is required, passengers could be stranded for a day or more. Only need that to happen once in every 10 flights, and every time saving you've gained on the other 9 flights will be lost.

Also, medical insurance companies are using total flight duration and single longest flight leg as components to set premiums for those over 70 and/or with pre-existing medical conditions.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:08 pm

Yes, there is a market for the 777-8, and there will be more sales in the mid term. QF could very well invest in the 777-8, ET has expressed great interest in it, and the type will make a great 777F/748F replacement.

The 777-8 is fine.
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:10 pm

holzmann wrote:
We shouldn't forget the potential impact of the possible 787-10ER / Ulh and 777-10.

As BlueSky has stated, the so-called 10's you describe are unlikely.

There is a new financial mantra at Boeing, with a much higher bar set for new model and derivative launches.

The 787-10ER is only a possibility if Boeing want to cancel the 778, and are confident they can move 778 customers to the model. However, the 777X family needs the 778 for scale purposes, so a 787-10ER has to be unlikely.

The 777-10 is as likely as an A380NEO which I'm sure SQ appreciates and understands.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:15 pm

keesje wrote:
I think there there will a longer range 787-10. The gap between 787-9 and 777-9 is large and imporatant. Launch of the A350-900LR didn't improve the situation. Both 777-8 and 787-10 seem niche aircraft.


The 787-10 is niche to you? Seriously?

Then you must see aircraft like the A330neo as a niche aircraft as well, don't you?
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81819
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:29 pm

The Singapore Airlines A340-500 business class seats weren't as good a product to today's offerings. They were simply a large seat, with plenty of room and a PTV screen. In comparison today's business class seats are far more adaptable for different activities. I think I would rather be on a plane for 18 hours in a new generation business class than on a plane for 14 hours with seats like that on the SIA A340-500.

I can see airlines like QANTAS, Cathay Pacific, Vietnam Airlines and some of the Chinese carriers being candidates for the 777-8X. It is an aircraft that would allow them to better serve some of their core markets.

When comparing the A350-900 and the 778X we have to remember the 778X has a wing optimised for longer flight missions (bigger/heavier). As such the (best guess) OEW difference between the two airframes may not be a good reference for comparing efficiency.

On a side note, where the 787-10 is more efficient than the A350-900 on medium haul routes, the 778X could be more efficient then the A350-900 for longer haul routes. For airlines the question revolves around how to make a fleet work with an additional type of aircraft and when would these theoretical efficiency advantages actually result in extra profits?

With airlines often operating on margins of less than 10%, 1-2% can make the difference between competing aircraft.

I suspect the A350-900 is nicely positioned in the heart of the market.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:29 pm

The 778 is still a long way away from production, yet it represents a pretty significant portion of 777X sales, roughly 20%. It's unlikely to continue to hold this percentage, , however, there are a number of airlines that might be quite interested. SAA, ET, AC, QF, ANZ all have likely considered it or will, among others. The 778's advantage is it will likely offer lower costs then a 77W with a very similar capacity. Airlines that want to stick with a Boeing product going foreward and don't need the massive size of the -9 might be interested.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:48 pm

Planesmart wrote:
The 787-10ER is only a possibility if Boeing want to cancel the 778, and are confident they can move 778 customers to the model.

Which would make no sense at all, considering they'd still be optimized for significantly different market segments.

There's no way a 78X of any kind is making it from the Middle East to the US west coast or Australian/Kiwi east coasts, with the payload that the ME3 would want.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mig17
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:43 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
mig17 wrote:
On paper, the 777-8 is only interesting for an airline which will also fly numbers of 777-9, no A350-900 and need ULH capability. That is a pretty small market even for a niche aircraft and even if Qatar and Etihad have already "proved me wrong" by ordering a few.

You're missing the most significant one of all: if they want to take payload over that range. The A359ULR won't be of much help to them there.


Agreed. But from another angle, it means that almost wherever the 777-8 can go, the A350-900 and URL can too with lower trip costs and better load-factors. So except if you are sure to always fill your plane or really need to go further than the nominal range without too much restritions, it will still be more interesting to fly a lighter and a bit smaller aircraft.
And that is without considering fleet commonality factor or the the fact the aircraft can also have "shorter" flights in it's schedule. Oh and even if there is a clientele for it, the ULH remains a questionnable model both economically and environmentally since you are using an aircraft outside of it's optimal range and so basically burning fuel to carry fuel.

For now, the only customers of the 777-8 version are those who also ordered the 777-9 in larger numbers. And I think it will stay that way. Meaning no one is going to buy the 777-8 alone. therefor the qestion " Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?", can be answered by this next question : How well will the 777-9 sell?
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Planesmart
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:44 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Planesmart wrote:
The 787-10ER is only a possibility if Boeing want to cancel the 778, and are confident they can move 778 customers to the model.

Which would make no sense at all, considering they'd still be optimized for significantly different market segments.

There's no way a 78X of any kind is making it from the Middle East to the US west coast or Australian/Kiwi east coasts, with the payload that the ME3 would want.

Precisely. It's going to be a very niche aircraft, built in small numbers almost exclusively for the ME3, who have quite probably already ordered 80% plus of global, lifetime requirements, at a deep discount.

A 787-10ER, with a new wing, which could be available for the 9 and 10 as well, might have better overall life-time sales prospects, at higher margins.

If Boeing's new financial mantra had applied in 2012-13, there would be no 777X. There would have been dollars for a new 787 wing, a faster to market -10 and perhaps even bigger versions. The 777 would have gone the way of the 767 family.

Now, Boeing has a similar dilemma to Airbus with the A330 / A350, except the Airbus family is mid-stream in a volume market, and the 777X is niche in a low volume market.

While Boeing and Airbus have taken a similar path to managing model size, range and other performance criteria overlaps and conflicts, Airbus has been unique managing prices across the entire family group (including A320).

Until late 2016, Boeing seemed to be having three way price competitions with itself - 777W v 787 v 777X. And that's before you add the 767 and 748 into the mix. Price warfare within Boeing has been the norm, with battles pitched as fiercely internally, as with Airbus, even encouraging model hopping.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:19 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Suppose one 20 hour flight non-stop
Compare with a quick stop near the middle, fuel only, maybe even on the taxiway, at a secondary, even tertiary airport.


In the best case scenario it would be around a 1 hour diversion, but realistically probably 2-3 hours. You have to consider multiple factors:

1. The extra distance flown to/from the refueling airport
2. The time spent vectoring and descending all while traveling at sub-cruise speeds
3. Time spent on the ground refueling
4. Time spent taxiing around the airport
5. Time spent to take off, ascend, and accelerate back to cruise speed.

Even if there were an airport perfectly situated on the route with a refueling crew waiting at the end of the runway, you would lose significant time descending and taking off compared to the non-stop flight at cruise.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:22 pm

stratocruiser wrote:
I know the 787-1000 does not have the range of the 777-800X,


MY guess would be that the 787-10 doesn't squeeze anything. Neither the 777-8X
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:50 pm

Planesmart wrote:
the 777X family needs the 778 for scale purposes, so a 787-10ER has to be unlikely.


What does "for scale purposes" mean? If you mean the 778 is needed to be the A319 of the family, I bet the A320 would have sold just fine without the A319.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:26 am

Planesmart wrote:
holzmann wrote:
We shouldn't forget the potential impact of the possible 787-10ER / Ulh and 777-10.

As BlueSky has stated, the so-called 10's you describe are unlikely.

There is a new financial mantra at Boeing, with a much higher bar set for new model and derivative launches.

The 787-10ER is only a possibility if Boeing want to cancel the 778, and are confident they can move 778 customers to the model. However, the 777X family needs the 778 for scale purposes, so a 787-10ER has to be unlikely.

The 777-10 is as likely as an A380NEO which I'm sure SQ appreciates and understands.


1. BlueSky didn't say "unlikely", he said "there won't be".
2. After seeing the "new financial mantra at Boeing" statement numerous times across many threads, you might be able to save yourself the extra typing and just make it part of your signature.
3. It sounds like the best thing for Boeing would be for Airbus to continue to keep the A380ceo in a [low] production.
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:27 am

In my opinion, the 778 is a (intentional) compromise aircraft. By stretching it a full 20 ft beyond the 772LR, Boeing is sacrificing range for passenger capacity (range is no greater than the 772LR) and takes itself out of contention for opening new ultra-niche routes requiring 10,000+ nm range. (A 778 at the 772 length would easily achieve 10,000+ nm and still carry at least 25 more pax because of the interior redo) The "redo" of the A359R/LR, by not using the A351 wing and MTOW also falls well short of its original 10,000+ nm range. I think the 778 was lengthened primarily to enable a useful freighter version (and it will make a killer freighter) and secondarily to better compete with the A351. Unless Airbus decides to go ahead with the A351-based A359R, we will have to wait a long time until someone opens up the "10,000 nm ultra-niche routes" that have been discussed recently.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:48 am

The market for a 777-8 is likely when its freighter variant is developed. The 787-9F will replace the 767-300ERF, and the 777-8F will replace the 747-8F and 777 (Classic) freighter.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:48 am

Boeing778X wrote:
Yes, there is a market for the 777-8, and there will be more sales in the mid term. QF could very well invest in the 777-8, ET has expressed great interest in it, and the type will make a great 777F/748F replacement.

The 777-8 is fine.

Exactly. As already noted b another poster, it will also be the basis of the next freighter.

Lower cost per flight than the 77L and more payload at range.

You point out ET. It is worth noting that for long missions from hot/high airports, the A359LR will be compromised. Now, in my opinion, airlines will only order the 778 if they have other 777s.

But the plane will sell.

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rotating14
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:01 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The market for a 777-8 is likely when its freighter variant is developed. The 787-9F will replace the 767-300ERF, and the 777-8F will replace the 747-8F and 777 (Classic) freighter.


Can you explain how awkward nose loading freight the 748f or the 744f currently takes, is going to move on a 778F and 787-9F?
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:07 am

VC10er wrote:
Aside from capacity, fuel, and cost...What are the amount of hours at the far end of a ULH flight? 18? More? When Singapore had EWR to SIN it was the world's longest flight if memory serves...and while the A340-500 was all business class nose to tail, the PRIMARY thing I heard from the folks who had taken that flight was "next time I am going to take a flight with a stop, the flight was way too long" yet and the last 4/5 hours was torture", yet it "seems" that the idea of nonstops from Sao Paulo to Tokyo or NYC or LHR to Sydney sounds great...do people really want that...until aircraft fly much faster? Last, these 777-8X's, can they do those missions without having to go all business class nose to tail?


Too long for some not so for others.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:07 am

rotating14 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The market for a 777-8 is likely when its freighter variant is developed. The 787-9F will replace the 767-300ERF, and the 777-8F will replace the 747-8F and 777 (Classic) freighter.


Can you explain how awkward nose loading freight the 748f or the 744f currently takes, is going to move on a 778F and 787-9F?


The 747 can take longer cargo than any other Boeing commercial freighter, but the majority of freight is still loaded through a side cargo door on a 747. The nose is a nice feature and will keep 747s flying for 30'or more years, but for express freight and most freight operators, the nose door is not needed. The majority of freight goes in through the side door since taller pallets can fit and it is twice as fast loading, which is almost identical in size between a 747 and 777.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:16 am

rotating14 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The market for a 777-8 is likely when its freighter variant is developed. The 787-9F will replace the 767-300ERF, and the 777-8F will replace the 747-8F and 777 (Classic) freighter.


Can you explain how awkward nose loading freight the 748f or the 744f currently takes, is going to move on a 778F and 787-9F?

Due to the premium for nose freight, much more is being repackaged for the 777F/MD-11.

Dedicated nose freight is going towards charter.

Take jet engines, they used to go on 747s for the big ones. Now they have the nacelle disassembled and fan taken off (laid down on a special pallet) and shipped on a 77L.

The 777F freighter sells well. So will the 778 based freighter.

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flyDTW1992
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:22 am

I have no doubt the 777-8F will make a killing, especially as the later-build 744Fs and some legacy 777Fs start making their way to the desert. a 777-8F should be able to just about match a 744 payload wise, and outmatch it on payload-range.
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LightningZ71
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:12 am

In answering the question about nose door freight, just ask yourself this question:

Is the demand for nose door equipped freighters keeping the 748 line open and the order books filled? That answer is a decidedly firm "no" thus far. I see no reason for Boeing to even bother with a market that small going forward, and instead to possibly build a handful of 748f white tails to sit in storage until sold for that purpose.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:12 am

lightsaber wrote:
rotating14 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The market for a 777-8 is likely when its freighter variant is developed. The 787-9F will replace the 767-300ERF, and the 777-8F will replace the 747-8F and 777 (Classic) freighter.


Can you explain how awkward nose loading freight the 748f or the 744f currently takes, is going to move on a 778F and 787-9F?

Due to the premium for nose freight, much more is being repackaged for the 777F/MD-11.

Dedicated nose freight is going towards charter.

Take jet engines, they used to go on 747s for the big ones. Now they have the nacelle disassembled and fan taken off (laid down on a special pallet) and shipped on a 77L.

The 777F freighter sells well. So will the 778 based freighter.

Lightsaber


Plus with more cargo going in LD3s on passenger aircraft, the 747 is often too big a plane now except for special circumstances. The 777F (and future 787-9 and 777-8) are perfectly-sized planes, and now with the A330P2F program, the 747's days may be numbered as a freighter. As for nose loading, the only carrier I see regularly using that feature is Cargolux.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:29 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
rotating14 wrote:

Can you explain how awkward nose loading freight the 748f or the 744f currently takes, is going to move on a 778F and 787-9F?

Due to the premium for nose freight, much more is being repackaged for the 777F/MD-11.

Dedicated nose freight is going towards charter.

Take jet engines, they used to go on 747s for the big ones. Now they have the nacelle disassembled and fan taken off (laid down on a special pallet) and shipped on a 77L.

The 777F freighter sells well. So will the 778 based freighter.

Lightsaber


Plus with more cargo going in LD3s on passenger aircraft, the 747 is often too big a plane now except for special circumstances. The 777F (and future 787-9 and 777-8) are perfectly-sized planes, and now with the A330P2F program, the 747's days may be numbered as a freighter. As for nose loading, the only carrier I see regularly using that feature is Cargolux.


Atlas, Kalitta, Cathay, and AirBridge all get regular use out of their 747 nose doors (both -400 and -8). I don't see the 747 dying out as a freighter anytime soon. Kalitta will operate its late-build 744s for another 15-20 years, and the 748 could conceivably go another 30.
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:29 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
rotating14 wrote:

Can you explain how awkward nose loading freight the 748f or the 744f currently takes, is going to move on a 778F and 787-9F?

Due to the premium for nose freight, much more is being repackaged for the 777F/MD-11.

Dedicated nose freight is going towards charter.

Take jet engines, they used to go on 747s for the big ones. Now they have the nacelle disassembled and fan taken off (laid down on a special pallet) and shipped on a 77L.

The 777F freighter sells well. So will the 778 based freighter.

Lightsaber


Plus with more cargo going in LD3s on passenger aircraft, the 747 is often too big a plane now except for special circumstances. The 777F (and future 787-9 and 777-8) are perfectly-sized planes, and now with the A330P2F program, the 747's days may be numbered as a freighter. As for nose loading, the only carrier I see regularly using that feature is Cargolux.

You make a good point on how belly freight is reducing the demand for dedicated freighters. There are options today driving more freight to belly or smaller freighters.

The reality is solid modeling software is allowing more and more to avoid nose door freighters. If they were really so needed, we wouldn't be talking about the 748 line shutdown.

Cest la vie. Markets adapt.

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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:31 am

I think we need to find out what type of cabin pressurization system Boeing uses on the 777-8. If they do something similar to the 787 with its equivalent of 6,000 feet altitude, then the 777-8 could comfortably fly passengers on really long routes like DXB-AKL, LAX-SIN and JNB-JFK. The problem with the A340-500 flying on SQ's very long routes from the USA to SIN was that the plane still used the older cabin pressurization system that simulated 9,000 feet altitude, which can be uncomfortable for passengers on very long flights.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:37 am

RayChuang wrote:
I think we need to find out what type of cabin pressurization system Boeing uses on the 777-8. If they do something similar to the 787 with its equivalent of 6,000 feet altitude, then the 777-8 could comfortably fly passengers on really long routes like DXB-AKL, LAX-SIN and JNB-JFK. The problem with the A340-500 flying on SQ's very long routes from the USA to SIN was that the plane still used the older cabin pressurization system that simulated 9,000 feet altitude, which can be uncomfortable for passengers on very long flights.


I believe that's the case, though recently someone downplayed that difference as more of a PR victory than an actual noticeable improvement.
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BawliBooch
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-800X?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:40 am

anshabhi wrote:
SpiceJet is an Indian low cost carrier, which is planning long haul operations. If they are a success, it might take them to fly ULH India-NA.


My fathers wifes brothers nephew was telling me the other day that Southwest is also planning long haul operations. If they are a success, it might take them to fly ULH Timbuctou-NA!

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bunumuring
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 4:31 am

Hey guys,
I do 'believe' in the 777-8.
I see Qantas eventually jumping on board with it, and the 777-9 later as an A380 replacement IF the A380neo doesn't emerge... I strongly believe that QF will go after the LHR/JFK nonstop markets from Sydney, and see the 777 as being technically superior to the A350 overall in this regard for QF.
I agree with posters above that other airlines like Ethiopian, Air Canada and the C4 may purchase too 777-8s too, utilising their better 'hot n high' performance and or ultra-long range. Even LATAM and Avianca could use them I believe, to open up interesting Asian and Pacific Rim services. AIr France: Paris to Papeete nonstop? BA: LHR to SYD if QF prove that the market exists and can cater for two (possibly in conjunction)? Niche markets for sure, but potentially strong niches that may be hinged off whether or not the big brother 777-9 is operated by these last two airlines mentioned.
I see the 777-8F being a major success and there's always the potential of a half dozen or so 777-8BBJs rolling off the production line over course of time.
Another potential 'plus' of the 777-8 is the long term replacement of the USAF KC-10s. I remember reading somewhere that Boeing was more likely to use the 777 than the 787 as the basis for a bid in that competition. The 777-8 would clearly be the perfect platform for that bid. I for one however, think that the Pegasus will end up being the only tanker for the USAF moving forward long term with it replacing the KC-10s.
Cheers,
Bunumuring.
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DaufuskieGuy
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 4:44 am

will the 778 enable the bridge too far of SA-Asia? NRT-LIM gives 30 plus SA connections and even more on the Asia side.
 
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:43 am

RayChuang wrote:
I think we need to find out what type of cabin pressurization system Boeing uses on the 777-8. If they do something similar to the 787 with its equivalent of 6,000 feet altitude, then the 777-8 could comfortably fly passengers on really long routes like DXB-AKL, LAX-SIN and JNB-JFK. The problem with the A340-500 flying on SQ's very long routes from the USA to SIN was that the plane still used the older cabin pressurization system that simulated 9,000 feet altitude, which can be uncomfortable for passengers on very long flights.




I'm no expert on the Airbus but I highly doubt the A340 ever has a cabin altitude of 9000 feet even at the aircraft's service ceiling, I doubt it goes much
higher than 7000 at the most.


Btw, the cabin altitude is not 'simulated' !
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


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QuarkFly
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Re: Is there a viable market for the Boeing 777-8?

Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:46 am

Actually I think there is a non-trivial chance that the 778 never gets built, like the 783 and A358, or perhaps pushed back a few years at least. If this platform is not soon offered as a dedicated freighter and ordered in reasonable numbers...and EK and other ME3 see softening demand...the 778 could face ME3 deferrals. Then without enough freighter demand as belly freight grows...the 778 platform dies -- and B goes on instead to invest the saved $ to make the 779 bigger. Right now, I would wager 60% chance a 778 ever flies.
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