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Jawaiiansky66
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Latest RJ Comparision - where does each type stand?

Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:02 pm

Howdy all,

There have been lots of topic posts about the CSeries and the Sukoi Superjet, but when compared with the other new RJ offerings around the world (i.e., Japan's MRJ, Embraer's proposed new design and China's entry) who is looking to be the front runner? CSeries is getting a lot of press but not as many orders as predicted. What's happening with the MRJ and what about China's plans?

Is there one particular product that's rising to the top (innovative design, etc..)?

Apologies if this has been discussed before but curious about all of these new designs I keep hearing about (albeit only briefly). Which appeals to you and why?
 
Leslieville
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Re: Latest RJ Comparision - where does each type stand?

Fri Mar 03, 2017 5:14 pm

I don't think that the C-Series is necessarily a regional jet. The CS100 & CS300 are small to medium mainline aircraft, like the A318 & A319 and B736 & B737, respectively.

The MRJ seems to be in pretty considerable trouble with the redesign and longer path to certification. The E2 family sound like they're in a complicated position with respect to weight and airlines' regional scope clause, but I'm not too sure about the details. I think that the original E-Jets are the winners of the current round of regional jet wars. Short of a redesign of the CRJs, I think that the E170s, E175s, and E190s are the go-to RJs these days.
 
raylee67
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Re: Latest RJ Comparision - where does each type stand?

Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:04 pm

I think the order book of new generation RJs are all quite disastrous.
E2's only respectful order is from SkyWest with 100 E2-175, and may be Azul.
MRJ's delivery date is basically unknown and again its order book is dominated by SkyWest. By the way, why does SkyWest need 100 E2 and then 100 MRJs? JAL and ANA, while having a genuine need for an aircraft like the MRJ, is probably making the orders to support Japanese products.
SSJ doesn't have any significant order from outside of Russia except InterJet and CityJet.
ARJ... well, let's not go there.
CSeries is not really a RJ as the smaller version would sit more than 100 pax already, although it also struggle to attract customers.

It seems that with the mergers (and thus more measured and controlled capacity in the industry) and lower oil price, airlines are more fond of airplanes at least the size of A320.
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Latest RJ Comparision - where does each type stand?

Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:54 pm

Don't forget the Antonov An-148/-158, which got off to a good start but has not gained much traction. There has been a deal to build it in India in collaboration with Reliance Defence. See http://m.atwonline.com/manufacturers/co ... t-facility

A few others under development, which may or may not come to fruition:

HAL Regional Transport Aircraft (India)
This had been under development by HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited) and NAL (National Aerospace Laboratories), and at various stages had been a jet or a turboprop. The collaboration between the two ended in 2015, but HAL are apparently trying to continue the project, possibly in collaboration with an existing manufacturer. See http://www.tribuneindia.com/mobi/news/b ... 75060.html and http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... l-aircraft

Korean Regional Jet
A project in Korea to develop a regional jet (or turboprop). The last news five years ago was that it might be a turboprop in collaboration with Bombardier. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872 ... 4075240544

Netherlands Aircraft Company Fokker 130
A long running attempt to resurrect the Fokker 100, which has so far not gained significant traction. See http://www.rekkof.nl

Turkish Regional Jet
The Turkish government, in association with Sierra Nevada Corporation, have acquired the rights to build the Dornier 328 and 328Jet, which will be marketed as the TRP328 and TRJ328. Beyond that they intend to build a larger aircraft, dubbed the TRJ628. Details at: http://www.trjet.com and a video (a little on the hyperbolic side) at https://youtu.be/8jgcH39lJcU

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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ua900
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Re: Latest RJ Comparision - where does each type stand?

Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:59 pm

From a design perspective they could probably all work. But when it comes to being economically viable for both manufacturers (high order numbers) and the operators (low running costs) then Embraer and perhaps CSeries are the only game in town at this point.

Are the SSJs still grounded? Wasn't there a time when Interjet had to pull all of them? I'm sure that doesn't help their business case in export markets, though I'd love to fly on one.
ARJs are a complete joke, just like the C919. MRJ doesn't seem to want to gain traction either. They need another 10-20 years to make their programs work.
CSeries seems to do reasonably well in Europe now in lieu of A319s, though way too late in the market, but what about the Americas? With Embraer's rise, it seems that LatAm and increasingly North America have picked E170/5s over Bombardier, just like the E190/5s in Europe.

Given that the ERJs were instrumental in pushing out the CRJs over the last couple of years, I'd say Embraer is the #1 with CSeries as a distant #2 and everyone else is depending on more development needed and / or government orders within their respective country / client countries.
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Re: Latest RJ Comparision - where does each type stand?

Fri Mar 03, 2017 7:39 pm

ua900 wrote:
Are the SSJs still grounded? Wasn't there a time when Interjet had to pull all of them? I'm sure that doesn't help their business case in export markets, though I'd love to fly on one.

They had to be inspected (for metal fatigue in the horizontal stabiliser brackets) and then could resume flight subject to an ongoing inspection regime. According to FlightRadar24, 7 Aeroflot ones are in the air right now (and another 12 have been active in the last week), 1 Interjet is in the air right now (and 17 others have been active in the last week), and all 3 CityJet examples have been flying this week.

ua900 wrote:
ARJs are a complete joke, just like the C919.

Let's give the C919 a chance to prove itself in flight testing and entry into service before lumping it in the deplorable basket with the ARJ21 (of which half the fleet - of two! - is currently in service)

ua900 wrote:
MRJ doesn't seem to want to gain traction either. They need another 10-20 years to make their programs work.

The production delays are disappointing but not hugely surprising. Provided they can get beyond them it has the potential to be a successful programme.

ua900 wrote:
CSeries seems to do reasonably well in Europe now in lieu of A319s, though way too late in the market, but what about the Americas? With Embraer's rise, it seems that LatAm and increasingly North America have picked E170/5s over Bombardier, just like the E190/5s in Europe.

Given that the E-Series was hugely successful in pushing out the CRJs over the last couple of years, I'd say Embraer is the #1 with CSeries as a distant #2 and everyone else is depending on more development needed and/or government orders within their respective country / client countries.

I think the Delta and Air Canada orders are certainly a boost of confidence for the C Series, which is actually a bigger aircraft than the Embraers. Being late to the market isn't necessarily an indicator of failure if you have a superior product. The Boeing was beaten to the market by the MD-11 and A340, but we know the 777 saw off both those programmes.

raylee67 wrote:
I think the order book of new generation RJs are all quite disastrous.

Disastrous is probably a strong word. Underwhelming, disappointing, seem more appropriate.

raylee67 wrote:
E2's only respectful order is from SkyWest with 100 E2-175, and may be Azul.

I'd say ILFC's order for 50 (split evenly between 190 and 195), Aircastle's order for 25 (15 190, 10 195), and Tianjin's order for 20 (all 190) are all respectable, as is Azul's for 20 195s, as you point out. Given they stopped flying last week, I think we can say Air Costa's order for 50 (split evenly between 190s and 195s) is dubious at best. Having only one customer for the 175 is a bit of a worry, especially if its MTOW is going to be above the limit where scope clauses in that customer's market kick in.

raylee67 wrote:
MRJ's delivery date is basically unknown and again its order book is dominated by SkyWest. By the way, why does SkyWest need 100 E2 and then 100 MRJs? JAL and ANA, while having a genuine need for an aircraft like the MRJ, is probably making the orders to support Japanese products.

I'm sure national pride played some part in ANA and JAL's orders, but I imagine being able to have some degree of ongoing influence in the design, and the promise of easy access to the manufacturer and support networks in the domestic market would have played a much larger role in the decision.

raylee67 wrote:
SSJ doesn't have any significant order from outside of Russia except InterJet and CityJet.

With CityJet planning to operate them on wet lease to customers in Western Europe (BMI Regional, Brussels Airlines for a start - are they going alphabetically through the list?), the type will get more main stream exposure there. I wouldn't be writing it off just yet, provided the experience is a positive one.

raylee67 wrote:
It seems that with the mergers (and thus more measured and controlled capacity in the industry) and lower oil price, airlines are more fond of airplanes at least the size of A320.

I think it's clear that that's where the largest part of the market lies, but there is clearly room for regional jets. Whether there is room for the number of models in service or in development is another questIon, and the evidence seems to suggest the market could benefit from a few less competitors to be more healthy. Don't forget too that "the mergers" and the consequent capacity control have been a US phenomenon of recent years - it doesn't mean that will be the global experience.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
sf260
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Re: Latest RJ Comparision - where does each type stand?

Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:39 pm

ua900 wrote:
Are the SSJs still grounded?

Is the 787 still grounded? Have they fixed that battery problem yet?
Is the A400M flying again since one example lost power on 3 engines and took 4 human lives?

You can say whatever you want about the SSJ, but compared to the A380, 787, A400M, MRJ programs, Russia really didn't do too bad for a nation that did not design a commercial airline for a very long time. The SSJ is not an instant success, but it could have done much, much worse.
 
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ua900
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Re: Latest RJ Comparision - where does each type stand?

Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:05 am

sf260 wrote:
ua900 wrote:
Are the SSJs still grounded?

Is the 787 still grounded? Have they fixed that battery problem yet?
Is the A400M flying again since one example lost power on 3 engines and took 4 human lives?

You can say whatever you want about the SSJ, but compared to the A380, 787, A400M, MRJ programs, Russia really didn't do too bad for a nation that did not design a commercial airline for a very long time. The SSJ is not an instant success, but it could have done much, much worse.


Good to see them aloft again, as I said above, I'd love to fly on one.

A400M shows the EU isn't much more competent than Red China either.

As for Russia, as I said above all the designs listed by OP have can be successful, whether it's commercially viable outside of national pride is another question. In that field volume sales have the advantage. Russia (and Ukraine for that matter) maintained a steady pipeline of updated designs, through designs like the Antonov 148 and the Tupolev 204. But when even your government controlled flag carrier is hesitant to buy huge quantities of a given type then you have to conclude that they did something worse than a competitor from the outside, someone who should not have gotten their aircraft order all things being equal.
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