“The first U.S. travel order saw the booking velocity fall by 35% overnight. The effect it had was instantaneous,” Tim Clark told journalists in Berlin on the sidelines of the ITB travel fair.
He said the revised order issued this week offered more clarity, and there had been some positive movement in bookings on the Emirates network but not a full recovery.

http://fortune.com/2017/03/09/emirates- ... ravel-ban/

It simply means many people not belonging to those 6/7 nations cancelled their plans to travel to/from US.

I'd suggest it means a lot more than that; if it were just those six countries, it would not be as much as a 35% (let's face it, EK never flew to Mogadishu and doesn't fly to Yemen anymore); I think Arab travellers are just deciding that US travel is not for them while The Donald is in charge. As a general rule, people don't like to travel 14h, be held in a long queue and then be verbally abused by an immigration official and spend time in a country where they are looked upon with disdain. There are lots of other travel alternatives.

How many Iranians use DXB (or DOH/AUH) for that matter, to travel to the US?

With the volume of capacity that EK has to the US, I'd say it's quite a concern. (Same for EY. QR and others).

Already discussed extensively here:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1356465

and also here:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1356859

Not only Arab travelers. There are many non-Arabs that feel like entering the US will become more of a hassle, or simply disagree with the direction Trump is taking the nation, and have decided to spend their holidays elsewhere. I know of a few people here in Australia that have either canceled their US trip, or decided to go somewhere else instead for their next holiday.

-CXfirst

CXfirst wrote:

Not only Arab travelers. There are many non-Arabs that feel like entering the US will become more of a hassle, or simply disagree with the direction Trump is taking the nation, and have decided to spend their holidays elsewhere. I know of a few people here in Australia that have either canceled their US trip, or decided to go somewhere else instead for their next holiday.

-CXfirst

Indeed, many reports of "Westerners" also interrogated or deported lately in the US:

Australian: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... re-country

Norwegian: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/06/ameri ... tion-iran/

Italian: http://www.dallasnews.com/news/immigrat ... -officials

On the other hand, probably more Americans will travel abroad this summer to Europe.

And bonus:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tours.html

As mentioned by BobPatterson, the link below is regarding the same topic in the Non Av Forum, which is where all political commentary relating to this subject belongs.

Since this does present new information from Tim Clark, this thread will remain open. However, political comments MUST be made in the topic linked below, and not here. As a general policy, political statements should not belong in the Civil Aviation Forum. Let's please keep this aviation related here, or the thread will have to be locked.

LINK TO THREAD FOR ANYONE WISHING TO RESPOND WITH POLITICAL STATEMENTS: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1356465

✈️ atcsundevil

kaitak wrote:

I'd suggest it means a lot more than that; if it were just those six countries, it would not be as much as a 35% (let's face it, EK never flew to Mogadishu and doesn't fly to Yemen anymore); I think Arab travellers are just deciding that US travel is not for them while The Donald is in charge. As a general rule, people don't like to travel 14h, be held in a long queue and then be verbally abused by an immigration official and spend time in a country where they are looked upon with disdain. There are lots of other travel alternatives.

How many Iranians use DXB (or DOH/AUH) for that matter, to travel to the US?

With the volume of capacity that EK has to the US, I'd say it's quite a concern. (Same for EY. QR and others).

Mogadishu is not part of the 6-banned countries

EK is not the only carrier that has felt a slowdown in booking to the USA. And same thing happened post 9/11. A lot of people will avoid the hassle factor and vacation elsewhere.

sadiqutp wrote:

Mogadishu is not part of the 6-banned countries

Maybe that is because it isn't a country?

the thread is off-topic now. Btw, I think most of the drop is carried by Indian H1-B visa holders. They are by far the largest passenger group on Emirates to US.
I personally know a few H1-B visa holders who have cancelled their summer vacation trip to India fearing they will not be allowed to enter US again.

The various shootings in Kansas and other places haven't helped with perception either. Arab travelers probably are keeping away until the dust settles down.

Jetty wrote:

sadiqutp wrote:

Mogadishu is not part of the 6-banned countries

Maybe that is because it isn't a country?

Somehow I read it "madagascar" ... Oops

...or.... it just may be...MAY BE that their business is experiencing a slowdown and they are using this as an excuse as any company would do.

MaksFly wrote:

...or.... it just may be...MAY BE that their business is experiencing a slowdown and they are using this as an excuse as any company would do.

You have got to be kidding me. I don't know what you've been smoking but I'd like to try it!

KTPAFlyer wrote:

MaksFly wrote:

...or.... it just may be...MAY BE that their business is experiencing a slowdown and they are using this as an excuse as any company would do.

You have got to be kidding me. I don't know what you've been smoking but I'd like to try it!

Not smoking anything, but thanks.

I am in finance and you have to be oblivious if you believe that companies will not blame ANYONE but themselves for any issues, even if they are caused by themselves.

Is their business impacted? sure, but it is not the only reason.

Also keep in mind when you have other companies, I believe it was AA that just came out and said that the travel bans had no noticeable impact?

To bring back to topic - what happens in the event of a person, who has already purchased a ticket - arriving to connect via DXB and being informed of the ban? Does the passenger receive a refund? Does EK 'hold' the passenger at DXB and return them home?

I can see the effect on their travel, and this - above the current issues already facing EK - must be making Sir Tim's job much more difficult.

I wonder where QR, and EY are - in comparison.

KTPAFlyer wrote:

MaksFly wrote:

...or.... it just may be...MAY BE that their business is experiencing a slowdown and they are using this as an excuse as any company would do.

You have got to be kidding me. I don't know what you've been smoking but I'd like to try it!

Not sure what the issue is with his comment? The same was said of JetBlue in the "Delay Atlanta" thread. We've also seen comments that QR, for example, is delaying planes because they can't fill them but passing it off as engine deficiencies. I'm not commenting on the validity of any of this but it certainly isn't out of the realm for such comments to be made on here.

anshabhi wrote:

the thread is off-topic now. Btw, I think most of the drop is carried by Indian H1-B visa holders. They are by far the largest passenger group on Emirates to US.
I personally know a few H1-B visa holders who have cancelled their summer vacation trip to India fearing they will not be allowed to enter US again.

Very good point. There will be a real impact on that assuming H1B visa abuse is cracked down on. It's not any one individual that is being targeted, but the employers themselves who will be forced to 'splain themselves.

MaksFly wrote:

...or.... it just may be...MAY BE that their business is experiencing a slowdown and they are using this as an excuse as any company would do.

Well, I work in a public company registered in Europe. We have offices around the world, including three in the USA. They have the lead on development on some of our products. And business is doing well, thank you.
In the last few years I travelled a lot to destinations around the world and I visited the USA two or three times a year at least. But over the years it became more of a hazzle to do it. I could not pinpoint what the root cause actually was: a longer security line here, more waiting for immigration there, some TSA guy shouting things at me I can not understand, missed connection flights because of all that, little unpleasent experiences on each trip. In the last year especially I noticed a somehow more tense atmosphere in general. I am a white "Caucasian" person, born and raised in Central Europe without any migration history in my family. But I do not feel welcome in the USA anymore.
So I started to organise things in a way that I don't have to go there. You know, you have a choice where to host a meeting with international participants and which conference to attend. And it was not only me, colleagues started to do the same.
And now with resent developments it became official company policy: I was advised to avoid all but absolutly necessary travel to the USA. Meetings and trainings have to be organised in a way that as few people cross US borders as possible. Special care needs to be taken if one of the persons in the meeting might be especially affected by current regulations.
I can not give exact numbers but as a result the number of US flights booked by my company dropped dramatically.

In my area of work, conferences in the US have become much less attractive. I know quite a few people who are not interested to attend and I am also aware of conference which now will not be hosted in the US, but elsewhere.

The US, much like China is insular and doesn't depend on foreign tourism.

Feel free to stay home.

Varsity1 wrote:

The US, much like China is insular and doesn't depend on foreign tourism.

Feel free to stay home.

It's not just tourism. Do we want to the business world to also shut their door to the USA? I know that some would say yes but I can't imagine why? The fact that we make it difficult to travel here vs other nations shouldn't be treated as a positive thing, even if there are merits to the madness. Telling people "Good - stay home!" is a somewhat dark and unfriendly point of view, one that most people I know would choose to reject just as normal human beings.

anshabhi wrote:

“The first U.S. travel order saw the booking velocity fall by 35% overnight. The effect it had was instantaneous,” Tim Clark told journalists in Berlin on the sidelines of the ITB travel fair.
He said the revised order issued this week offered more clarity, and there had been some positive movement in bookings on the Emirates network but not a full recovery.

http://fortune.com/2017/03/09/emirates- ... ravel-ban/

It simply means many people not belonging to those 6/7 nations cancelled their plans to travel to/from US.

Hallelujah.. Now let's see if EK's strategy is still to fly to every city in the USA

All this doom and gloom though. My goodness gracious.
As with all things influenced by factors, political or not, there will be a bounce back. The traffic will pick up, as the market will readjust itself and become viable for travel again. Sooner or later the travel ban will be lifted and freedom reigns...

"I had a dream"! #DropsMic

anshabhi wrote:

“The first U.S. travel order saw the booking velocity fall by 35% overnight. The effect it had was instantaneous,” Tim Clark told journalists in Berlin on the sidelines of the ITB travel fair.
He said the revised order issued this week offered more clarity, and there had been some positive movement in bookings on the Emirates network but not a full recovery.

http://fortune.com/2017/03/09/emirates- ... ravel-ban/

It simply means many people not belonging to those 6/7 nations cancelled their plans to travel to/from US.

speedbored wrote:

Personally, I think the thread title is a bit misleading - it is not a 35% drop in passenger traffic that EK is reporting - it is a short-term 35% drop in booking activity. It should hardly be a surprise that, during all of the uncertainty created by the initial travel ban, people delayed making bookings until there was more clarity about how things would settle.

I suspect that most of the reported 35% drop in booking activity at that time will simply result in marginally increased booking activity once people fully understand what the new rules are, and how things will work in practice. I doubt that passenger traffic will actually be affected by more than a low single-digit percentage.

I agree -- the thread title "Emirates reports 35% drop in traffic to US as a result of travel ban" is not an accurate title. BTW that's the article's title at Forbes, not the thread starter's choice.

Another source, FG ( https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ef-435045/ ) says:

When US president Donald Trump in January signed an executive order temporarily banning citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries from entering the USA, Emirates' rate of ticket sales growth fell by more than a third versus previous years, asserts Clark.

I think it's clear that it's not ticket volume that has changed by 33-35%, it's rate of change in volume.

However after reading the FG article, I have to wonder what makes TC so confident that the problems are just short term blips. I guess it doesn't matter much to him, he's retiring in the relatively near future.

Revelation wrote:

anshabhi wrote:

“The first U.S. travel order saw the booking velocity fall by 35% overnight. The effect it had was instantaneous,” Tim Clark told journalists in Berlin on the sidelines of the ITB travel fair.
He said the revised order issued this week offered more clarity, and there had been some positive movement in bookings on the Emirates network but not a full recovery.

http://fortune.com/2017/03/09/emirates- ... ravel-ban/

It simply means many people not belonging to those 6/7 nations cancelled their plans to travel to/from US.

speedbored wrote:

Personally, I think the thread title is a bit misleading - it is not a 35% drop in passenger traffic that EK is reporting - it is a short-term 35% drop in booking activity. It should hardly be a surprise that, during all of the uncertainty created by the initial travel ban, people delayed making bookings until there was more clarity about how things would settle.

I suspect that most of the reported 35% drop in booking activity at that time will simply result in marginally increased booking activity once people fully understand what the new rules are, and how things will work in practice. I doubt that passenger traffic will actually be affected by more than a low single-digit percentage.

I agree -- the thread title "Emirates reports 35% drop in traffic to US as a result of travel ban" is not an accurate title. BTW that's the article's title at Forbes, not the thread starter's choice.

Another source, FG ( https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ef-435045/ ) says:

When US president Donald Trump in January signed an executive order temporarily banning citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries from entering the USA, Emirates' rate of ticket sales growth fell by more than a third versus previous years, asserts Clark.

I think it's clear that it's not ticket volume that has changed by 33-35%, it's rate of change in volume.

However after reading the FG article, I have to wonder what makes TC so confident that the problems are just short term blips. I guess it doesn't matter much to him, he's retiring in the relatively near future.

Thanks for pointing out all of this. I had not read the FG article. In it, Mr. Clark gives 5 reasons for the decline in Emirates' business, including:

1. He says adverse currency effects have been a significant factor. An appreciation of the dollar has itself created pressure for the Dubai-based carrier, and also triggered secondary effects as weak currencies in other markets decline versus the US currency.

2. Clark notes that markets in Emirates' home region – such as Iraq, Libya and Syria – have disappeared as a result of political conflicts. "The Middle East is a different place now to when we started to fly in 1985."

3. Following the UK's decision to exit the European Union, Emirates took an "18% whack in the summer" in that country, which Clark describes as a "high-production market".

4. When US president Donald Trump.....Emirates' rate of ticket sales growth fell by more than a third versus previous years, asserts Clark.

5. He says efforts by European airlines to establish low-cost long-haul subsidiaries are also having an effect on the industry and on Emirates' business.

I wonder if he was reading from some sort of cue card on which the items were listed by order of importance. I think it interesting that the travel ban was 4th on his list.

Except the title of this thread is mislabeled. BOOKINGS went down, not traffic - yet. Nor does the title of the source say that. The OP has been all over non-av trying to whip up hysteria against 'US white Christians" for the last week. Just more of the same.

MaksFly wrote:

...or.... it just may be...MAY BE that their business is experiencing a slowdown and they are using this as an excuse as any company would do.

Bingo
Leaving the politics aside, the travel volume between all 7 (now 6) impacted countries and the US is negligible. The impact of the L1B crackdown 2-3 years ago (eliminating 20-30K jobs equaling approximately 100,000 trips) and the more stringent B1/B2 approval for Indian citizens should have had a much larger impact yet EKs traffic exhibited a healthy growth.
EKs growth is now slowing - they may have run out of new destinations, global uncertainty / anxiety is affecting global economy results with less travel and increased competition from Turkish, Chinese and Asian carriers routes some US passengers elswhere.

I am confident EK management is working hard to address the situation,
Having said that, using something beyond their control as an excuse is common practice. (and is OK as long as they use this for PR while working hard to address reality).

DLP

vfw614 wrote:

I am also aware of conference which now will not be hosted in the US, but elsewhere.

Which comference is it?

Dear mods and everyone, please feel free to edit the title in whatever way you want.

The thread title has been updated to more accurately reflect the situation. Just another reminder to forward all political statements to Non Av. This is not an attempt at censoring anyone's political opinions, it's a request to keep this forum engaged in Civil Aviation discussion. Forum rules make it clear that Non Av is the only appropriate forum for political discussion. In that forum, users are more than welcome to express their political opinions on these matters. If political statements were allowed in Civ Av, then they would likely hijack a substantial portion of our threads. I would think the majority of us would regret seeing that happen.

✈️ atcsundevil

I'm still pretty sure it's a 35% drop in GROWTH of bookings. So thread title is wrong.

And it's not even claimed to be because of the ban. It's a guess at a factor.

#1 is currency fluctuations. It's more expensive to visit the USA.

And all of this assumes that EK should otherwise grow this year as quickly as last year. Who says? Them?

The thread title should simply say "EK growth in US market down 35%" unless you are trying to make ANet click bait for the web. I hope we are above that.

MaksFly wrote:

KTPAFlyer wrote:

MaksFly wrote:

...or.... it just may be...MAY BE that their business is experiencing a slowdown and they are using this as an excuse as any company would do.

You have got to be kidding me. I don't know what you've been smoking but I'd like to try it!

Not smoking anything, but thanks.

I am in finance and you have to be oblivious if you believe that companies will not blame ANYONE but themselves for any issues, even if they are caused by themselves.

Is their business impacted? sure, but it is not the only reason.

Also keep in mind when you have other companies, I believe it was AA that just came out and said that the travel bans had no noticeable impact?

Which of the 6 banned countries does AA fly to exactly and why would it have been significantly impacted?

EK is not looking for an excuse, simply stating facts. If there are border issues in the USA affecting OD countries that fly through Dubai, it is simply logical that the rate of bookings to the USA will drop till there is clarity on exactly what is going on.

BobPatterson wrote:

I wonder if he was reading from some sort of cue card on which the items were listed by order of importance. I think it interesting that the travel ban was 4th on his list.

And #1 was the strength of the dollar. When the dollar is strong, foreign tourism drops. Local price gouger hotels have to rely more on domestic bookings and lower prices.

Varsity1 wrote:

The US, much like China is insular and doesn't depend on foreign tourism.

Feel free to stay home.

Are you really that narrowminded? Is FOX News your only source for information? Or Breitbart?


In 2015 the USA had 69 million visitors from other countries who came for tourism. The number is growning anually by about 2 million tourists. These tourists spend over 200 billion Dollar each year in the USA. That's 1.5 percent of the USA's gross domestic product.


Additionally you have million of business travellers who come not only to sell products in the USA, but also to buy US-made products or who come to look after US-based shops and production facilities of foreign companies (which give jobs to American workers).


Your ignorant way of seeing the world sadly resembles the one of the current US government and will probably lead to the next big recession, again hitting the low earning people the hardest and rich people not at all.

CARST wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

The US, much like China is insular and doesn't depend on foreign tourism.

Feel free to stay home.

Are you really that narrowminded? Is FOX News your only source for information? Or Breitbart?


In 2015 the USA had 69 million visitors from other countries who came for tourism. The number is growning anually by about 2 million tourists. These tourists spend over 200 billion Dollar each year in the USA. That's 1.5 percent of the USA's gross domestic product.

Amen. The tourism industry alone is estimated to lose 10.8 billion from "Trump Fear":
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-tra ... story.html

That's not counting lost business from reduced trade. I know personally of one software company that lost an account because they simply couldn't guarantee to the client they'd be able to provide support, including travel, to/from several Middle Eastern countries (not on the "banned list" either). But the company didn't want to put anything in writing given the current political climate. The contract instead went to an software company in India.

CARST wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

The US, much like China is insular and doesn't depend on foreign tourism.

Feel free to stay home.

Are you really that narrowminded? Is FOX News your only source for information? Or Breitbart?


In 2015 the USA had 69 million visitors from other countries who came for tourism. The number is growning anually by about 2 million tourists. These tourists spend over 200 billion Dollar each year in the USA. That's 1.5 percent of the USA's gross domestic product.


Additionally you have million of business travellers who come not only to sell products in the USA, but also to buy US-made products or who come to look after US-based shops and production facilities of foreign companies (which give jobs to American workers).


Your ignorant way of seeing the world sadly resembles the one of the current US government and will probably lead to the next big recession, again hitting the low earning people the hardest and rich people not at all.

Okay, I suppose that anyone that does not agree with you or your view of the world is ignorant?

No - I think he responded with Facts. They do seem to becoming a much maligned item these days.

BobPatterson wrote:

I wonder if he was reading from some sort of cue card on which the items were listed by order of importance. I think it interesting that the travel ban was 4th on his list.

ordering is by "date" ( and #5 is an afterthought more or less but rising lately.)

Perhaps there has been a 'flat spot' in growth that was inevitable. EK has competition from the other 2 of the 'ME 3' as well as discount airlines. Some companies may require the use of certain airlines and not the ME3 due to volume discount deals with certain airlines or partners. Some may be turned off to the well published human rights and labor rights issues of the ME3 airlines and countries including by migrant workers to the ME3 countries. There were protests at EWR on Sunday (Mar. 12) from a new EK service to Athens, Greece by human and labor rights groups. Other airlines may be offering discounts that may lead to a shift in bookings. Communication technology is making it less necessary to travel someplace. The fears of terrorism, the problems from the large migrations of persons from Syria and adjacent areas due to ISIS and other wars there may have just turned off a lot of travel EK relies on.

CARST wrote:

In 2015 the USA had 69 million visitors from other countries who came for tourism. The number is growning anually by about 2 million tourists. These tourists spend over 200 billion Dollar each year in the USA. That's 1.5 percent of the USA's gross domestic product.

Additionally you have million of business travellers who come not only to sell products in the USA, but also to buy US-made products or who come to look after US-based shops and production facilities of foreign companies (which give jobs to American workers).

You make good points.

Or put another way, updating to 2016 numbers, every 80% load factor A380 adds another USD2m plus to the US economy.

If the USA doesn't want tourists, business and conference travellers, I'm sure NZ, Australia and any number of other countries, will happily take up the slack.

I have a trip to Texas booked later this year. I intend to travel and don't foresee any problems whatsoever.

anshabhi wrote:

the thread is off-topic now. Btw, I think most of the drop is carried by Indian H1-B visa holders. They are by far the largest passenger group on Emirates to US.
I personally know a few H1-B visa holders who have cancelled their summer vacation trip to India fearing they will not be allowed to enter US again.

Data source for this assertion?

ltbewr wrote:

Perhaps there has been a 'flat spot' in growth that was inevitable. EK has competition from the other 2 of the 'ME 3' as well as discount airlines. Some companies may require the use of certain airlines and not the ME3 due to volume discount deals with certain airlines or partners. Some may be turned off to the well published human rights and labor rights issues of the ME3 airlines and countries including by migrant workers to the ME3 countries. There were protests at EWR on Sunday (Mar. 12) from a new EK service to Athens, Greece by human and labor rights groups. Other airlines may be offering discounts that may lead to a shift in bookings. Communication technology is making it less necessary to travel someplace. The fears of terrorism, the problems from the large migrations of persons from Syria and adjacent areas due to ISIS and other wars there may have just turned off a lot of travel EK relies on.

I found it interesting that Clark's list of five points did not include the competitive pressures you mention.

Planesmart wrote:

If the USA doesn't want tourists, business and conference travellers, I'm sure NZ, Australia and any number of other countries, will happily take up the slack.

This is just anecdotal but a colleague of mine is planning to visit Canada in September. The travel organization urged him to make his booking soon because they see an increased interest in Canada.

Again, this is just anecdotal and I cannot support this with any data (… hey, but this old-fashioned anyway…).

Well if we're going anecdotal, I have been been treated in an unfriendly manner by customs and immigration at LHR, CDG and FRA. Does it mean I am not going to go to the UK, France and Germany? Not at all, because I am an adult.

Bricktop wrote:

Well if we're going anecdotal, I have been been treated in an unfriendly manner by customs and immigration at LHR, CDG and FRA. Does it mean I am not going to go to the UK, France and Germany? Not at all, because I am an adult.

Just for the record, I am not sure if you are referring to me... In no way did I want to say you should not go to the USA. Have been there in 2015 with my family and would love to come back soon. I don't care about who is president. The reason why we are not travelling to the USA this year is the strong US Dollar... Cheers.

N14AZ wrote:

Bricktop wrote:

Well if we're going anecdotal, I have been been treated in an unfriendly manner by customs and immigration at LHR, CDG and FRA. Does it mean I am not going to go to the UK, France and Germany? Not at all, because I am an adult.

Just for the record, I am not sure if you are referring to me... In no way did I want to say you should not go to the USA. Have been there in 2015 with my family and would love to come back soon. I don't care about who is president. The reason why we are not travelling to the USA this year is the strong US Dollar... Cheers.

Sorry, not directed at you at all N14AZ. Just a comment on personal experience that I have had in the last couple of years. Sure, C&I staff can be douchebags anywhere but I am not letting that stop me enjoying the wonderful country that is beyond their booth.

Someone please tell the low cost airlines that are adding transatlantic capacity about the US travel hassles.

If the US is going to greatly tighten the border, we also should spend some money to ensure people we want coming are greeted by better trained and more numerous border personnel. Minor discrepancies in admitting people need to be resolved quickly and courteously in favor of people who should be admitted. I am not hearing that this funding is being supported. Oddly, the Coast Guard who have an already impossible job securing our borders are facing a major cut in their budget.