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cvgComair
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WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:56 pm

It's that time again, on March 16, 2017, Southwest will open its schedule from September 29, 2017 through November 3, 2017. With the Boeing 737-300's being phased out by the end of the current schedule, this should be the release that we see a lot of frequency reductions and possibly station/route cuts.

I know DSM, FNT, GSP, and ROC have all been mentioned as possible stations to close, what are your thoughts? If any of the stations are ever going to close, this is the schedule release to do it.

I know its unlikely, but as always, what routes do you see being added? I know more international routes are heavily rumored, however, given the length of some of these routes, I find it hard to believe they could add any more with the fleet reduction. Domestically, CVG is probably the only city that has a chance of new routes, however, unless they cut a station, I think WN will probably wait until they have more planes in their fleet to add more flights at WN.
Last edited by cvgComair on Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:12 pm

CAK is already closing.

This does look to be THE BIG ONE. Maybe they will pull a rabbit out of their hat somehow? They could run really late or really early flights to try to make up for the lost planes. I just think that's gonna be a bad revenue decision as those fringe flights typically suck outside deep peak season. Given this schedule is nearly rock bottom low season, I have to think they won't do that.

I think there will be some sort of adds, there always are. I think you might see WN suspend Cuba at least until DEC in order to recoup a couple of planes. With everybody else suspending Cuba flights I think they will have to consider that.

I think ROC/DSM are only 20% likely to go.
FNT is 60% likely.
GSP is 40% likely.
 
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flymco753
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:20 pm

I don't think CVG will see any additions at this time, for example most CVG-Florida routes have extremely low yields so it's unlikely WN wouldnt want to be the third or fourth carrier in some cases fighting against a legacy and 2 LCC's. FNT may be on the chopping block and Florida-FNT would shift to DTW.
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cvgComair
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:20 pm

enilria wrote:
CAK is already closing.

Thanks for catching that one, I copied the list from the previous discussion.

flymco753 wrote:
I don't think CVG will see any additions at this time, for example most CVG-Florida routes have extremely low yields so it's unlikely WN wouldnt want to be the third or fourth carrier in some cases fighting against a legacy and 2 LCC's.

I totally agree that WN will not go for CVG-Florida anytime soon, there are just too many carriers driving down the prices. When WN next announces routes at CVG, it will probably be on business routes like CVG-BOS/DAL/HOU or less competitive leisure routes like CVG-PHX. I could see them eventually "testing the waters" with a 1x/day to RSW or MCO, however, this will probably wait until they have a passenger base on their existing routes.

I highly doubt FNT Florida will be shifted to DTW, though. With DL so strong at DTW, and NK holding its own against DL on DTW-Florida routes, there is not much room for WN (hence why they only operate a seasonal MCO flight).
Last edited by cvgComair on Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:49 pm, edited 6 times in total.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:00 pm

Even though it's been Rumored,speculation and predictions that FNT and GSP are going away in this schedule release.
I'm going to say that they might just stay around.

Newest rumor is AA giving up 2 slots at LGB permanently. LGB airport is going to reallocate them to WN.
Rumors have WN reshuffling LGB service to 3 daily OAK 2 LAS and 1 DEN with the success of the weekend service pattern out of LGB.

Flyguy
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Jshank83
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:31 pm

I went to see what happened in last years release but last year this release and the previous release were all one release (early August-early Nov). So that didn't really help me much. Because of that, I am guessing this will mostly be making things fit with the planes retiring and there won't be many adds.
 
QANTAS747-438
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:49 pm

This release should have MAX routes on it, since they begin on OCT 1.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:51 pm

I'm not sure there is going to be much beyond the seasonal adjustment we saw last year. What I think is more interesting is speculating where the new Max-8's are going to be placed. I don't know how many will come online before and during this update period or how they are likely to use them in the beginning. Will it be "hub" hopping for familiarity training? Will it be on long legs? High demand routes? Will they do miscellaneous subbing for existing 800 routes?
 
tomaheath
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 12:59 am

Do the existing 800s and the MAX8 have the same seat count?
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:04 am

LotsaRunway wrote:
I'm not sure there is going to be much beyond the seasonal adjustment we saw last year. What I think is more interesting is speculating where the new Max-8's are going to be placed. I don't know how many will come online before and during this update period or how they are likely to use them in the beginning. Will it be "hub" hopping for familiarity training? Will it be on long legs? High demand routes? Will they do miscellaneous subbing for existing 800 routes?


I think there's going to be around 15 idle MAX aircraft ready for deployment. And 6 refurbished used 700.

Flyguy
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msycajun
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:22 am

I wonder if there will be any response to the recent AS/VX Bay Area adds. I bet that played into AS's unusual timing, knowing that WN would have a limited ability to launch new routes in the fall.

I don't expect anything exciting in this release, although I do wonder which of the recent added 1-2 weekly routes MSY-IND/CMH/PIT/RDU stick and if any of them go daily. This would be the ideal schedule to do it, apart from the fleet issues, because October is usually our second busiest month.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:51 am

My own predictions.
MEX-HOU slot awards added with the old 23:30/05:30 MEX-HOU slot being used to add either MEX-MDW or MEX-BWI.

GSP and FNT will be down to 2 flights A day and 1 on Sat/Sun.

PNS-BNA down to 1 daily but add 1 PNS-MDW daily.

Flyguy
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FLYKTPA
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:01 am

Is it a coincidence that MCI plans to have an air service announcement this week?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JustinMeyerK ... 6882791425
Personally I hope WN adds TPA-LAX or TPA-SAN, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
phluser
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:28 am

msycajun wrote:
I wonder if there will be any response to the recent AS/VX Bay Area adds. I bet that played into AS's unusual timing, knowing that WN would have a limited ability to launch new routes in the fall.


I wonder if WN would switch BWI-OAK to BWI-SFO now that AS is challenging WN long hauls ex BWI and with that route. It seems sensible even if AS didn't add it. When one most people think of traveling to the Bay Area from the East Coast, it's to SFO. Put in ROC or PWM to SFO on southwest.com and one gets a complicated 3 or 4 stop itinery, when there is a nonstop BWI flight to OAK where it would otherwise be a doable one stop connection.
 
737max8
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:47 am

wnflyguy wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
I'm not sure there is going to be much beyond the seasonal adjustment we saw last year. What I think is more interesting is speculating where the new Max-8's are going to be placed. I don't know how many will come online before and during this update period or how they are likely to use them in the beginning. Will it be "hub" hopping for familiarity training? Will it be on long legs? High demand routes? Will they do miscellaneous subbing for existing 800 routes?


I think there's going to be around 15 idle MAX aircraft ready for deployment. And 6 refurbished used 700.

Flyguy


Where in the world do you get your information? WN is only taking 14 MAX this year alone, and not all of them will be before October 1st.

My prediction is they mainly fly between large bases. But the MAX8 and -800 both have the same exact seating arrangement, so they are basically interchangeable.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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ucdtim17
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:01 am

phluser wrote:
msycajun wrote:
I wonder if there will be any response to the recent AS/VX Bay Area adds. I bet that played into AS's unusual timing, knowing that WN would have a limited ability to launch new routes in the fall.


I wonder if WN would switch BWI-OAK to BWI-SFO now that AS is challenging WN long hauls ex BWI and with that route. It seems sensible even if AS didn't add it. When one most people think of traveling to the Bay Area from the East Coast, it's to SFO. Put in ROC or PWM to SFO on southwest.com and one gets a complicated 3 or 4 stop itinery, when there is a nonstop BWI flight to OAK where it would otherwise be a doable one stop connection.


And when most people think of flying to the mid-atlantic from the west coast, it's to Dulles or National. Maybe they should switch the OAK-BWI flight to OAK-IAD or OAK-DCA.

Southwest flies between OAK and BWI because they are two large stations for Southwest. It must be relatively successful - they're going double daily this summer.
 
czek6
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 12:58 pm

Why would they switch OAK-BWI to IAD when you yourself said it was successful and going 2x daily? That makes no sense, why give up feed from BWI.

I'd say there is a very healthy market for BWI in its own right to have Southwest BWI-OAK, Spirit BWI-OAK (seasonal), United BWI-SFO, and Alaska BWI-SFO,
 
Jshank83
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:27 pm

czek6 wrote:
Why would they switch OAK-BWI to IAD when you yourself said it was successful and going 2x daily? That makes no sense, why give up feed from BWI.

I'd say there is a very healthy market for BWI in its own right to have Southwest BWI-OAK, Spirit BWI-OAK (seasonal), United BWI-SFO, and Alaska BWI-SFO,


I think he was saying it because he didn't like how a previous poster was acting like no one knows about OAK so they should move flights to SFO. So he then took the same shot at BWI compared to DC. I don't think he was serious, just trying to make a point.
 
blhp68
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:39 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
Is it a coincidence that MCI plans to have an air service announcement this week?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JustinMeyerK ... 6882791425
Personally I hope WN adds TPA-LAX or TPA-SAN, but I'm not getting my hopes up.


Was wondering the same thing....if it is in fact MCI, I know that RDU is next on their wish list. He didn't indicate if it would be a new destination or not.
 
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barney captain
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:54 pm

tomaheath wrote:
Do the existing 800s and the MAX8 have the same seat count?


Yes, they're both 175.
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wnflyguy
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:35 pm

737max8 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
I'm not sure there is going to be much beyond the seasonal adjustment we saw last year. What I think is more interesting is speculating where the new Max-8's are going to be placed. I don't know how many will come online before and during this update period or how they are likely to use them in the beginning. Will it be "hub" hopping for familiarity training? Will it be on long legs? High demand routes? Will they do miscellaneous subbing for existing 800 routes?


I think there's going to be around 15 idle MAX aircraft ready for deployment. And 6 refurbished used 700.

Flyguy


Where in the world do you get your information? WN is only taking 14 MAX this year alone, and not all of them will be before October 1st.


My prediction is they mainly fly between large bases. But the MAX8 and -800 both have the same exact seating arrangement, so they are basically interchangeable.


I thought they were getting more since the delivery time Frame from Boeing has been pushed up. Maybe it's 10 MAX by October 1st then a few used 700's and a few NG 737-800.

Fortune cookies!

Flyguy
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roadpilot
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:03 pm

blhp68 wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
Is it a coincidence that MCI plans to have an air service announcement this week?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JustinMeyerK ... 6882791425
Personally I hope WN adds TPA-LAX or TPA-SAN, but I'm not getting my hopes up.


Was wondering the same thing....if it is in fact MCI, I know that RDU is next on their wish list. He didn't indicate if it would be a new destination or not.


Wouldn't MCI-RDU be a resumption for WN, not a new service? IIRC, they flew SJC-MCI-RDU for awhile before DEN opened.
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:33 pm

roadpilot wrote:
blhp68 wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
Is it a coincidence that MCI plans to have an air service announcement this week?
https://mobile.twitter.com/JustinMeyerK ... 6882791425
Personally I hope WN adds TPA-LAX or TPA-SAN, but I'm not getting my hopes up.


Was wondering the same thing....if it is in fact MCI, I know that RDU is next on their wish list. He didn't indicate if it would be a new destination or not.


Wouldn't MCI-RDU be a resumption for WN, not a new service? IIRC, they flew SJC-MCI-RDU for awhile before DEN opened.


AFAIK WN never operated a SJC-MCI flight. There has been one from OAK over the past few years.
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enilria
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:44 pm

Given that 1) it is off-season for transcon (Summer is peak) and 2) transcons require a lot of aircraft time (and they are very short of airplanes), I would not expect anything but cuts on transcon. This would actually be a great place to hack airplanes out of the system because since they don't have red-eyes, one roundtrip is a whole plane. I seem to remember before when they needed to unexpectedly cut airplanes they dropped IAD-LAS or maybe it was IAD-SAN. Anyway, same point that transcons are the easiest cuts for them.

While I think they may not cut any more stations, I think 1) that would be more surprising than not cutting stations and 2) they tend to cut stations in groups and I have wondered if DAY/CAK were approved as part of a larger multi-stage culling.
 
blhp68
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:53 pm

KLMatSJC wrote:
roadpilot wrote:
blhp68 wrote:

Was wondering the same thing....if it is in fact MCI, I know that RDU is next on their wish list. He didn't indicate if it would be a new destination or not.


Wouldn't MCI-RDU be a resumption for WN, not a new service? IIRC, they flew SJC-MCI-RDU for awhile before DEN opened.


AFAIK WN never operated a SJC-MCI flight. There has been one from OAK over the past few years.


Correct, it would be a resumption for WN. I inquired (via Twitter) about whether it would be a new destination or existing destination with an existing airline, but was told it was too early for clues :).

SJC was served N/S back in the early 2000s. Here is an article referencing the flight: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stor ... ily21.html
 
RJNUT
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:09 pm

KLMatSJC wrote:
roadpilot wrote:
blhp68 wrote:

Was wondering the same thing....if it is in fact MCI, I know that RDU is next on their wish list. He didn't indicate if it would be a new destination or not.


Wouldn't MCI-RDU be a resumption for WN, not a new service? IIRC, they flew SJC-MCI-RDU for awhile before DEN opened.


AFAIK WN never operated a SJC-MCI flight. There has been one from OAK over the past few years.




Actually WN had operated MCI-SJC for awhile years ago, they also did MCI- SMF too . The tweet re: new MCI air service referenced AS specifically to west coast, so it is probably either SAN or SJC to MCI since the tweeter already posted MCI-SFO recently announced ..
 
roadpilot
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:23 pm

blhp68 wrote:

Correct, it would be a resumption for WN. I inquired (via Twitter) about whether it would be a new destination or existing destination with an existing airline, but was told it was too early for clues :).

SJC was served N/S back in the early 2000s. Here is an article referencing the flight: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stor ... ily21.html


Thank you! I knew I wasn't going senile, I even remember the flight numbers 382 was the SJC-MCI-RDU leg and 1116 was the return. The airplane boomeranged out of SJC.
 
Jshank83
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:27 pm

RJNUT wrote:
KLMatSJC wrote:
roadpilot wrote:

Wouldn't MCI-RDU be a resumption for WN, not a new service? IIRC, they flew SJC-MCI-RDU for awhile before DEN opened.


AFAIK WN never operated a SJC-MCI flight. There has been one from OAK over the past few years.




Actually WN had operated MCI-SJC for awhile years ago, they also did MCI- SMF too . The tweet re: new MCI air service referenced AS specifically to west coast, so it is probably either SAN or SJC to MCI since the tweeter already posted MCI-SFO recently announced ..


I took the tweet as it could be anything. He didn't say new in it. Just there is another announcement. So it could be anywhere and any route that the announcing airline doesn't already have.
 
roadpilot
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:46 pm

I wonder if this schedule period would be the right time to test the waters with red-eyes. Like enilira stated, transcons take up alot of aircraft time, running red-eyes would let them stay in the transcon market while giving them the flexibility to find more profitable daytime flying
 
RJNUT
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:09 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
RJNUT wrote:
KLMatSJC wrote:

AFAIK WN never operated a SJC-MCI flight. There has been one from OAK over the past few years.




Actually WN had operated MCI-SJC for awhile years ago, they also did MCI- SMF too . The tweet re: new MCI air service referenced AS specifically to west coast, so it is probably either SAN or SJC to MCI since the tweeter already posted MCI-SFO recently announced ..


I took the tweet as it could be anything. He didn't say new in it. Just there is another announcement. So it could be anywhere and any route that the announcing airline doesn't already have.


you are probably right , it was a little confusing ,as tweets tend to be. I just hope it is not another Allegiant announcement!
 
msycajun
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:17 pm

roadpilot wrote:
I wonder if this schedule period would be the right time to test the waters with red-eyes. Like enilira stated, transcons take up alot of aircraft time, running red-eyes would let them stay in the transcon market while giving them the flexibility to find more profitable daytime flying


I was wondering the same thing myself. If you look at other airlines like UA, roughly a third of the transcon flights are red eyes. WN could easily free up a plane or two's worth of flying by making one of the SAN/OAK/LAX-BWI flights a red eye. Even more if you look at flights into EWR, MCO, and ATL and out of LAS.

Between that, rearranging some maintenance, and extending utilization, plus the usual seasonal reductions, WN should be able to avoid major cuts.
 
blhp68
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:28 pm

RJNUT wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
RJNUT wrote:



Actually WN had operated MCI-SJC for awhile years ago, they also did MCI- SMF too . The tweet re: new MCI air service referenced AS specifically to west coast, so it is probably either SAN or SJC to MCI since the tweeter already posted MCI-SFO recently announced ..


I took the tweet as it could be anything. He didn't say new in it. Just there is another announcement. So it could be anywhere and any route that the announcing airline doesn't already have.


you are probably right , it was a little confusing ,as tweets tend to be. I just hope it is not another Allegiant announcement!


:lol: agree, the allegiant announcements don't normally get me too pumped but nonetheless new service is new service!
 
phluser
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:04 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
So he then took the same shot at BWI compared to DC. I don't think he was serious, just trying to make a point.


I don't think it's comparable in any way though. BWI outranks DCA and IAD by some measures, like passenger boarding, and within WN's network of hubs, BWI is a much bigger hub with connecting flows, than OAK. I think it's fair to say that in the Bay Area, SFO is a preferred and more recognized airport over OAK, even if WN has more favorable operational conditions at OAK. The challenge is AS, a smaller carrier, is launching SFO-BWI and easily can upgrade to 2x daily year-round, if WN doesn't keep AS in check.
 
Jshank83
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:14 pm

phluser wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
So he then took the same shot at BWI compared to DC. I don't think he was serious, just trying to make a point.


I don't think it's comparable in any way though. BWI outranks DCA and IAD by some measures, like passenger boarding, and within WN's network of hubs, BWI is a much bigger hub with connecting flows, than OAK. I think it's fair to say that in the Bay Area, SFO is a preferred and more recognized airport over OAK, even if WN has more favorable operational conditions at OAK. The challenge is AS, a smaller carrier, is launching SFO-BWI and easily can upgrade to 2x daily year-round, if WN doesn't keep AS in check.


I get what you are saying but as someone who lives in the middle of the country I wouldn't have had a clue BWI is the size it is, if I wasn't into aviation like I am. I would have assumed the D.C. airports were far bigger just on name recognition. Just as I would assume SFO is far bigger than Oakland based on recognition, whether or not it actually was bigger or not.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:21 pm

phluser wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
So he then took the same shot at BWI compared to DC. I don't think he was serious, just trying to make a point.


I don't think it's comparable in any way though. BWI outranks DCA and IAD by some measures, like passenger boarding, and within WN's network of hubs, BWI is a much bigger hub with connecting flows, than OAK. I think it's fair to say that in the Bay Area, SFO is a preferred and more recognized airport over OAK, even if WN has more favorable operational conditions at OAK. The challenge is AS, a smaller carrier, is launching SFO-BWI and easily can upgrade to 2x daily year-round, if WN doesn't keep AS in check.


BWI does more traffic than IAD and DCA individually, but collectively, DC airports are much bigger than BWI and DC is certainly a bigger brand name than Baltimore. SFO is the more well known and popular airport in the Bay Area, but as you say, WN has a good situation at OAK and routes most of their Bay Area traffic there.
 
ROCDLFAN
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:42 am

cvgComair wrote:
It's that time again, on March 16, 2017, Southwest will open its schedule from September 29, 2017 through November 3, 2017. With the Boeing 737-300's being phased out by the end of the current schedule, this should be the release that we see a lot of frequency reductions and possibly station/route cuts.

I know DSM, FNT, GSP, and ROC have all been mentioned as possible stations to close, what are your thoughts? If any of the stations are ever going to close, this is the schedule release to do it.

I know its unlikely, but as always, what routes do you see being added? I know more international routes are heavily rumored, however, given the length of some of these routes, I find it hard to believe they could add any more with the fleet reduction. Domestically, CVG is probably the only city that has a chance of new routes, however, unless they cut a station, I think WN will probably wait until they have more planes in their fleet to add more flights at WN.


For the love of god... ROC. IS. NOT. CLOSING. If it was going to happen, it would have happened a long time ago. The market is healthy, and WN has made all necessary adjustments over the last 4 years to ensure that.
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airplaneboy
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:53 am

enilria wrote:
Given that 1) it is off-season for transcon (Summer is peak) and 2) transcons require a lot of aircraft time (and they are very short of airplanes), I would not expect anything but cuts on transcon. This would actually be a great place to hack airplanes out of the system because since they don't have red-eyes, one roundtrip is a whole plane. I seem to remember before when they needed to unexpectedly cut airplanes they dropped IAD-LAS or maybe it was IAD-SAN. Anyway, same point that transcons are the easiest cuts for them.

While I think they may not cut any more stations, I think 1) that would be more surprising than not cutting stations and 2) they tend to cut stations in groups and I have wondered if DAY/CAK were approved as part of a larger multi-stage culling.


I think this is spot on. Unless there are more used -700 frames coming online that we aren't aware of, these would be the only options they have to move flying around/add frequency in shorter haul markets.
 
rockyracoon
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:35 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I don't think CVG will see any additions at this time


I disagree with you. WN has plenty of room to grow, and will need to offer more direct offerings to capture more of the CVG market. I feel that they will add some new destinations after the summer.

cvgComair wrote:
When WN next announces routes at CVG, it will probably be on business routes like CVG-BOS/DAL/HOU or less competitive leisure routes like CVG-PHX.


I mostly agree. BOS would be a great add. And it's just a matter of when, not if, for DAL and HOU.

I do think they'll dip their toes in CVG-Florida. FLL, perhaps? Their Caribbean connections could be attractive to CVG flyers.
Airports I've flown from: CVG PIT DAY JAX MWO PHL PHX ORD DCA IAD MIA TPA MCO FLL ATL DTW DFW SJC LAX DEN SLC LAS HNL LIH OGG YVR GYE MUC ICN NRT PVG SHA SZX MNL PPS CRK BKK DMK KBV EOH MDE CLO CTG SMR BOG ACD MEX CUN MID AUA SAL RTB
 
Jshank83
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:24 pm

rockyracoon wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I don't think CVG will see any additions at this time


I disagree with you. WN has plenty of room to grow, and will need to offer more direct offerings to capture more of the CVG market. I feel that they will add some new destinations after the summer.


I am not sure it will have to do with room to grow but more lack of available planes. The most logical place, to me, is to add routes during this offering would be to Florida and I am under the impression CVG already has a ton of competition there. So I could see them holding off at adding at CVG for now until they get more planes they can use. I would think WN will focus more on trying to keep as much as they currently have intact before they start cutting current routes elsewhere to add new routes.
 
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enilria
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:31 pm

msycajun wrote:
roadpilot wrote:
I wonder if this schedule period would be the right time to test the waters with red-eyes. Like enilira stated, transcons take up alot of aircraft time, running red-eyes would let them stay in the transcon market while giving them the flexibility to find more profitable daytime flying


I was wondering the same thing myself. If you look at other airlines like UA, roughly a third of the transcon flights are red eyes. WN could easily free up a plane or two's worth of flying by making one of the SAN/OAK/LAX-BWI flights a red eye. Even more if you look at flights into EWR, MCO, and ATL and out of LAS.

Between that, rearranging some maintenance, and extending utilization, plus the usual seasonal reductions, WN should be able to avoid major cuts.

According to some good sources, one of the problems with red-eyes is that their ops system software (dispatch, weight/balance, etc) can't support an operation that has planes in the air 24 hours per day. I'm told there is not a date to replace that software. It is not part of the RES system upgrade. If anybody has newer information, please post. If it weren't for that I would agree red-eyes would be a way to solve their airplane shortage.
 
dbo861
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:33 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
rockyracoon wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I don't think CVG will see any additions at this time


I disagree with you. WN has plenty of room to grow, and will need to offer more direct offerings to capture more of the CVG market. I feel that they will add some new destinations after the summer.


I am not sure it will have to do with room to grow but more lack of available planes. The most logical place, to me, is to add routes during this offering would be to Florida and I am under the impression CVG already has a ton of competition there. So I could see them holding off at adding at CVG for now until they get more planes they can use. I would think WN will focus more on trying to keep as much as they currently have intact before they start cutting current routes elsewhere to add new routes.


I agree with this..I wish this forum had a "Like" option on posts. I'm certain we'll see CVG get flights/destinations added..in due time. But not on this extension. On top of the fleet reduction, WN hasn't even started ops at CVG yet. Have they ever added a new station, and then added flights to that station before it opened?

enilria wrote:
msycajun wrote:
roadpilot wrote:
I wonder if this schedule period would be the right time to test the waters with red-eyes. Like enilira stated, transcons take up alot of aircraft time, running red-eyes would let them stay in the transcon market while giving them the flexibility to find more profitable daytime flying


I was wondering the same thing myself. If you look at other airlines like UA, roughly a third of the transcon flights are red eyes. WN could easily free up a plane or two's worth of flying by making one of the SAN/OAK/LAX-BWI flights a red eye. Even more if you look at flights into EWR, MCO, and ATL and out of LAS.

Between that, rearranging some maintenance, and extending utilization, plus the usual seasonal reductions, WN should be able to avoid major cuts.

According to some good sources, one of the problems with red-eyes is that their ops system software (dispatch, weight/balance, etc) can't support an operation that has planes in the air 24 hours per day. I'm told there is not a date to replace that software. It is not part of the RES system upgrade. If anybody has newer information, please post. If it weren't for that I would agree red-eyes would be a way to solve their airplane shortage.


It's crazy to think that it's 2017 and they still don't have software that can support red eye operations. Isn't it also in the pilot contract that they won't fly red eyes? I just can't believe that there isn't another reason other than computer software that's stopping them from red eyes.
 
rockyracoon
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:37 pm

dbo861 wrote:
WN hasn't even started ops at CVG yet. Have they ever added a new station, and then added flights to that station before it opened?


Good point. I don't know if WN has, but I doubt it.
Airports I've flown from: CVG PIT DAY JAX MWO PHL PHX ORD DCA IAD MIA TPA MCO FLL ATL DTW DFW SJC LAX DEN SLC LAS HNL LIH OGG YVR GYE MUC ICN NRT PVG SHA SZX MNL PPS CRK BKK DMK KBV EOH MDE CLO CTG SMR BOG ACD MEX CUN MID AUA SAL RTB
 
cledaybuck
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:45 pm

rockyracoon wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I don't think CVG will see any additions at this time


I disagree with you. WN has plenty of room to grow, and will need to offer more direct offerings to capture more of the CVG market. I feel that they will add some new destinations after the summer.

cvgComair wrote:
When WN next announces routes at CVG, it will probably be on business routes like CVG-BOS/DAL/HOU or less competitive leisure routes like CVG-PHX.


I mostly agree. BOS would be a great add. And it's just a matter of when, not if, for DAL and HOU.

I do think they'll dip their toes in CVG-Florida. FLL, perhaps? Their Caribbean connections could be attractive to CVG flyers.
Disagree. I don't see DAL, HOU, or BOS being added anytime soon. I think any adds in the next few years will be to Florida or places like STL, PHX, LAS, DEN.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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flymco753
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:47 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
rockyracoon wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I don't think CVG will see any additions at this time


I disagree with you. WN has plenty of room to grow, and will need to offer more direct offerings to capture more of the CVG market. I feel that they will add some new destinations after the summer.

cvgComair wrote:
When WN next announces routes at CVG, it will probably be on business routes like CVG-BOS/DAL/HOU or less competitive leisure routes like CVG-PHX.


I mostly agree. BOS would be a great add. And it's just a matter of when, not if, for DAL and HOU.

I do think they'll dip their toes in CVG-Florida. FLL, perhaps? Their Caribbean connections could be attractive to CVG flyers.
Disagree. I don't see DAL, HOU, or BOS being added anytime soon. I think any adds in the next few years will be to Florida or places like STL, PHX, LAS, DEN.
CVG to Florida already has plenty of competition, so until WN's CVG market matures, I don't see Florida routes for CVG this extension.
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georgiabill
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:50 pm

Hopefully WN will once again show MHT a little luv! Hoping MHT sees a 2nd daily TPA, a resumption of MHT-DEN, MHT-FLL( resumption of service year round) and seasonal weekend service MHT-RSW.
From BOS a long shot BOS-SJC( although OAK is more likely) BOS-PIT.
 
rockyracoon
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:17 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I don't think CVG will see any additions at this time, for example most CVG-Florida routes have extremely low yields so it's unlikely WN wouldnt want to be the third or fourth carrier in some cases fighting against a legacy and 2 LCC's.


2 ULCCs, flush with restrictions and fees that CVG flyers could avoid by choosing WN. This is traffic WN should win over with time, and they won't be able to do that without making some challenges. I don't think WN would hold back just because F9 or G4 is on the route already. Now I'm not saying WN is going to roll out a bunch of CVG-Florida flights, but I think at least one is within reason in the near future.

It will be interesting to see where the connecting traffic through CVG-BWI is going, and how much of that is to Florida.

cledaybuck wrote:
I don't see DAL, HOU, or BOS being added anytime soon. I think any adds in the next few years will be to Florida or places like STL, PHX, LAS, DEN.


No DAL or HOU? I can't see WN expanding much beyond 3 destinations before adding CVG-DAL and/or HOU., and I don't think WN moved ops from DAY to CVG only to set up 3 routes. CVG-BOS is a market that is ripe for a new entrant, and one that the Cincinnati business community has mentioned for years. It's a logical addition. Whether it will happen or not, who knows?
Airports I've flown from: CVG PIT DAY JAX MWO PHL PHX ORD DCA IAD MIA TPA MCO FLL ATL DTW DFW SJC LAX DEN SLC LAS HNL LIH OGG YVR GYE MUC ICN NRT PVG SHA SZX MNL PPS CRK BKK DMK KBV EOH MDE CLO CTG SMR BOG ACD MEX CUN MID AUA SAL RTB
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1787
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:30 pm

rockyracoon wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I don't think CVG will see any additions at this time, for example most CVG-Florida routes have extremely low yields so it's unlikely WN wouldnt want to be the third or fourth carrier in some cases fighting against a legacy and 2 LCC's.


2 ULCCs, flush with restrictions and fees that CVG flyers could avoid by choosing WN. This is traffic WN should win over with time, and they won't be able to do that without making some challenges. I don't think WN would hold back just because F9 or G4 is on the route already. Now I'm not saying WN is going to roll out a bunch of CVG-Florida flights, but I think at least one is within reason in the near future.

It will be interesting to see where the connecting traffic through CVG-BWI is going, and how much of that is to Florida.

cledaybuck wrote:
I don't see DAL, HOU, or BOS being added anytime soon. I think any adds in the next few years will be to Florida or places like STL, PHX, LAS, DEN.


No DAL or HOU? I can't see WN expanding much beyond 3 destinations before adding CVG-DAL and/or HOU., and I don't think WN moved ops from DAY to CVG only to set up 3 routes. CVG-BOS is a market that is ripe for a new entrant, and one that the Cincinnati business community has mentioned for years. It's a logical addition. Whether it will happen or not, who knows?
Why? CLE has 8 WN destinations, none of which are HOU or DAL. CMH has 17 WN destinations, but HOU is not one of them. I think the gate situation at DAL makes adds difficult, and I just don't see CVG being a priority. As for BOS, every market WN flies to from there is either a large WN station or one where they are the largest carrier. I guess I just don't see CVG becoming either for WN.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
SWADawg
Posts: 609
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:47 pm

I think the next cities to see new service from CVG are probably STL, DEN, and either LAS, or PHX. I agree with others that have said no DAL or HOU anytime soon though.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
flydulles
Posts: 122
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:59 pm

if they were going enter Hawaii this year would this be the schedule release dump they would do it in?
 
Jshank83
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Re: WN Schedule Release 3/16/17 Predictions

Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:09 pm

One I will throw out for CVG is BNA. I know it's short but Delta is cutting it back to 1 a day and people can connect through BNA. Because of BNA's connections I would give it a possibility. Might depend on how many people would connect to Florida/Southern options. I do think most of CVG adds for the next handful will be to focus cities.

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