Hi Everyone. First of all, this is my first post. Thank You for all the years of fun reading and dedication you have all poured into this site.

Now, into the good stuff. When Alaska Airlines first announced SFO-MSP it raised an eyebrow. The times of the flights didnt "add up." It was obvious the first SFO-MSP wouldn't turn the second MSP-SFO. I thought someone would bring it up on here, but no one did! A former AS friend told me the PDX-MSP might be retuned but I knew there was something more to it.

Now... fast forward to last weeks announcement and we're left with the same problem: SFO-MCI couldn't turn MCI-SFO. (see schedules below). With that, I decided to do my own investigating. After contacting someone with more knowledge , it seems my assumptions were right on. So don't be suprised to see more announcements from Alaska this week With that, here is the only clue I can give you:

- MSP, DTW, OMA, MCI and ABQ were mentioned by me. Apparently I'm off by 1!

- One poster on here will really like where these flights are coming from!?


E175 MSP Puzzle:

Dates Plugged In: 9/18- 9/24

SEA-MSP: All mainline


PDX-MSP:
10:05am- 3:26pm

MSP-PDX:
4:20pm- 6:28pm

SFO-MSP:
11:45am- 5:22pm
6:45pm- 12:22am

MSP-SFO:
6:15am- 8:20am
3:20pm- 5:25pm




MCI E175 Puzzle:

SEA-MCI: All Mainline

PDX-MCI:
9:35am- 2:59pm

MCI-PDX:
3:40pm- 5:45pm


SFO-MCI:
9:50am- 3:30pm

MCI-SFO:
2:55pm- 5:05pm

I think QX will be receiving their E-175's in quite a hurry...sounds like it anyway. AS has got to put those airplanes somewhere...meanwhile employing the Q400's on existing routes.

Ok, so San Diego to .....

Did your AS friend mention if more SAN/SFO/PDX- East Coast flights were in the works?

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Ok, so San Diego to .....

San Diego to TIJ and Carlsbad. LOL!

Come on Chester, don't forget ELP!

MSPSAN
SANMSP
MCISAN
SANMCI

I think the next new E-175 city will be in the midwest will either be DSM or CID. And I think the next new mainline will be CLE, CLT or JAX.

wedgetail737 wrote:

I think QX will be receiving their E-175's in quite a hurry...sounds like it anyway. AS has got to put those airplanes somewhere...meanwhile employing the Q400's on existing routes.

So much for "E175s are more economical than Q400s on routes over 400 miles," as was announced with the order

400+ mile Q400 routes are staying Q400

Hopefully OMA-SAN, that would make me super happy!!! I think there is a much larger market for this than OMA-PDX which is not performing too well. Although the PDX-OMA flight time is terrible, way too late, they need to move it up by 3 hours if Alaska wants it to work long term.

I would love to see IND-PDX but I might have to wait, the markets better than some of the other routes proposed, the only problem is range.

Some could hope AS announces something from DTW but unfortunately it's HIGHLY unlikely.

joeljack wrote:

Hopefully OMA-SAN, that would make me super happy!!! I think there is a much larger market for this than OMA-PDX which is not performing too well. Although the PDX-OMA flight time is terrible, way too late, they need to move it up by 3 hours if Alaska wants it to work long term.

I haven't been keeping track of these loads over time but in looking just at the next week the OMA-PDX loads look pretty good to me. Not sure what you're basing your information off of.

flymco753 wrote:

Some could hope AS announces something from DTW but unfortunately it's HIGHLY unlikely.

I don't know if it's going to happen right away but I think you can count on some more routes from DTW. I'm guessing sooner rather than later.

ASFlyer wrote:

joeljack wrote:

Hopefully OMA-SAN, that would make me super happy!!! I think there is a much larger market for this than OMA-PDX which is not performing too well. Although the PDX-OMA flight time is terrible, way too late, they need to move it up by 3 hours if Alaska wants it to work long term.

I haven't been keeping track of these loads over time but in looking just at the next week the OMA-PDX loads look pretty good to me. Not sure what you're basing your information off of.

Been watching flights since the route started. Per omaha airport website, 53 percent LF in January and the flights were dirt cheap. Routinely only $100 each way or just slightly more.

Yes, pretty full right now, spring break.

With AA and WN expected to slowly give up on PHX, this does open up more options for AS in the future to grab an even bigger slice of the West coast.

AS is currently a very interesting airline to watch as of late. If they are planning more route announcements, I really hope they keep PDX in mind. Personally, I'm crossing my fingers for a PDX-DTW.

Adipocere wrote:

With AA and WN expected to slowly give up on PHX, this does open up more options for AS in the future to grab an even bigger slice of the West coast.

Didn't WN just announce some big project at PHX? New facilities for maintenance and 8 gate concourse.

http://www.azfamily.com/story/34709113/ ... in-phoenix

ucdtim17 wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

I think QX will be receiving their E-175's in quite a hurry...sounds like it anyway. AS has got to put those airplanes somewhere...meanwhile employing the Q400's on existing routes.

So much for "E175s are more economical than Q400s on routes over 400 miles," as was announced with the order

400+ mile Q400 routes are staying Q400

I'm sure some of the longer-haul Q400 routes will turn to E-175s like PDX-OAK and maybe SEA-RNO.

Adipocere wrote:

With AA and WN expected to slowly give up on PHX, this does open up more options for AS in the future to grab an even bigger slice of the West coast.

WN is not giving up on PHX at all. They just announced a maintenance expansion and a new concourse.
http://www.azcentral.com/story/travel/a ... /98920440/

All this E175 expansion has got to be driving the mainline AS pilots absolutely bonkers.

Adipocere wrote:

With AA and WN expected to slowly give up on PHX

Who said either of these airlines are giving up on Phoenix?

ucdtim17 wrote:

400+ mile Q400 routes are staying Q400

Not true, most all longer stage regional flying will be E-175's once QX has their 30+ from AAG & OO is flying an additional 30 or so on behalf of AAG under the Alaska banner.

joeljack wrote:

Hopefully OMA-SAN, that would make me super happy!!! I think there is a much larger market for this than OMA-PDX which is not performing too well. Although the PDX-OMA flight time is terrible, way too late, they need to move it up by 3 hours if Alaska wants it to work long term.

OMA-PDX is doing better than fine. The OMA market is growing & AS offers great opportunities for Nebraska flyers.

Midwestindy wrote:

I would love to see IND-PDX but I might have to wait, the markets better than some of the other routes proposed, the only problem is range.

I don't think you'll have to wait a super long time, just call it an educated hunch.

flymco753 wrote:

Some could hope AS announces something from DTW but unfortunately it's HIGHLY unlikely.

AS sees DTW as the DL stronghold that is it. They will offer a token presence as is needed. The subject of the In-perimeter slots AAG has at DCA & LGA, could be easily be used for a SEA-DTW-LGA/DCA or PDX-MSP-DCA/LGA routings. A targeted jab to DL.

kon wrote:

AS is currently a very interesting airline to watch as of late. If they are planning more route announcements, I really hope they keep PDX in mind. Personally, I'm crossing my fingers for a PDX-DTW

PDX is the second largest hub in the AAG system, it will likely be superseded in the future by SFO or LAX. But PDX gives much to AAG & as plugged in as we are here, how top drawer our restaurants & night life scene is. We are loyal customers & we have been rewarded with lots of non-stop destinations & a hometown carrier that is the best domestic carrier.

I would love to see SAN/SFO/PDX-TPA on AS.
I know PDX-MCO hasn't started yet so PDX-TPA might be a few years down the line.

ASFlyer wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Some could hope AS announces something from DTW but unfortunately it's HIGHLY unlikely.

I don't know if it's going to happen right away but I think you can count on some more routes from DTW. I'm guessing sooner rather than later.

You're right, I can see an announcement in early 2018 for Summer 2018 service, more than likely to PDX.

kon wrote:

AS is currently a very interesting airline to watch as of late. If they are planning more route announcements, I really hope they keep PDX in mind. Personally, I'm crossing my fingers for a PDX-DTW.

That would be the most likely and logical add for AS at DTW.

RWA380 wrote:

ucdtim17 wrote:

400+ mile Q400 routes are staying Q400

Not true, most all longer stage regional flying will be E-175's once QX has their 30+ from AAG & OO is flying an additional 30 or so on behalf of AAG under the Alaska banner.

joeljack wrote:

Hopefully OMA-SAN, that would make me super happy!!! I think there is a much larger market for this than OMA-PDX which is not performing too well. Although the PDX-OMA flight time is terrible, way too late, they need to move it up by 3 hours if Alaska wants it to work long term.

OMA-PDX is doing better than fine. The OMA market is growing & AS offers great opportunities for Nebraska flyers.

Midwestindy wrote:

I would love to see IND-PDX but I might have to wait, the markets better than some of the other routes proposed, the only problem is range.

I don't think you'll have to wait a super long time, just call it an educated hunch.

flymco753 wrote:

Some could hope AS announces something from DTW but unfortunately it's HIGHLY unlikely.

AS sees DTW as the DL stronghold that is it. They will offer a token presence as is needed. The subject of the In-perimeter slots AAG has at DCA & LGA, could be easily be used for a SEA-DTW-LGA/DCA or PDX-MSP-DCA/LGA routings. A targeted jab to DL.

kon wrote:

AS is currently a very interesting airline to watch as of late. If they are planning more route announcements, I really hope they keep PDX in mind. Personally, I'm crossing my fingers for a PDX-DTW

PDX is the second largest hub in the AAG system, it will likely be superseded in the future by SFO or LAX. But PDX gives much to AAG & as plugged in as we are here, how top drawer our restaurants & night life scene is. We are loyal customers & we have been rewarded with lots of non-stop destinations & a hometown carrier that is the best domestic carrier.

ATL and MSP are also Delta strong holds but that didn't stop AS from expanding there. I think AS would have a great following in Detroit from people who are tired of having Delta as their only choice. PDX-DTW isn't even year round on Delta so AS would pretty much have that market to themselves.

chrisair wrote:

All this E175 expansion has got to be driving the mainline AS pilots absolutely bonkers.

Adipocere wrote:

With AA and WN expected to slowly give up on PHX

Who said either of these airlines are giving up on Phoenix?

AS pilots don't have scope language in their contract, so if it is driving them nuts, they have nobody to blame but themselves.

As for Midwest routes, my best friend works at the DSM airport and he said they are pushing hard to get AS service at DSM. Not sure how close they are, but I'd put a good chance on it happening.

USAavdork wrote:

Hi Everyone. First of all, this is my first post. Thank You for all the years of fun reading and dedication you have all poured into this site.

Now, into the good stuff. When Alaska Airlines first announced SFO-MSP it raised an eyebrow. The times of the flights didnt "add up." It was obvious the first SFO-MSP wouldn't turn the second MSP-SFO. I thought someone would bring it up on here, but no one did! A former AS friend told me the PDX-MSP might be retuned but I knew there was something more to it.

Now... fast forward to last weeks announcement and we're left with the same problem: SFO-MCI couldn't turn MCI-SFO. (see schedules below). With that, I decided to do my own investigating. After contacting someone with more knowledge , it seems my assumptions were right on. So don't be suprised to see more announcements from Alaska this week With that, here is the only clue I can give you:

There has been a lot of speculation (not just by me) that DAL is closing, if so they would need to fly the LGA/DCA slots (or lease them out). MSP has been widely speculated as a destination because it is a logical geographic stop between LGA/DCA and SEA/PDX, and because of the build-up AS has been doing in MSP. MCI is another possibility with thrus to SFO/SAN/LAX possibly...

klm617 wrote:

ATL and MSP are also Delta strong holds but that didn't stop AS from expanding there. I think AS would have a great following in Detroit from people who are tired of having Delta as their only choice. PDX-DTW isn't even year round on Delta so AS would pretty much have that market to themselves.

NW/DL has been running DTW-PDX, if at all, seasonally in my recollection, for 25+ years. If AS wants to lose a lot of money on it they can run it year-round. The demand for incremental destinations offered DTW-PDX-XXX is trivial vs. DTW-SEA-XXX. DTW-PDX O&D is very seasonal; DL doesn't run it year-round even with feed into DTW from everywhere in the East.

DTW passengers have lots of choice. 26% of enplaned passengers in 2016 weren't on Delta and DL connection carriers. That's 4.5 million enplanements.

I don't know if your command of available facts is poor or if you simply don't care about facts.

http://wcaa.us/Portals/WCAACorp/Full_Report(CY)_Final_2016.pdf

MIflyer12 wrote:

I don't know if your command of available facts is poor or if you simply don't care about facts.

You made a compelling argument. Was that last line needed?

MEM and XNA to a couple of Pacific Coast Destinations would be swell.

enilria wrote:

USAavdork wrote:

Hi Everyone. First of all, this is my first post. Thank You for all the years of fun reading and dedication you have all poured into this site.

Now, into the good stuff. When Alaska Airlines first announced SFO-MSP it raised an eyebrow. The times of the flights didnt "add up." It was obvious the first SFO-MSP wouldn't turn the second MSP-SFO. I thought someone would bring it up on here, but no one did! A former AS friend told me the PDX-MSP might be retuned but I knew there was something more to it.

Now... fast forward to last weeks announcement and we're left with the same problem: SFO-MCI couldn't turn MCI-SFO. (see schedules below). With that, I decided to do my own investigating. After contacting someone with more knowledge , it seems my assumptions were right on. So don't be suprised to see more announcements from Alaska this week With that, here is the only clue I can give you:

There has been a lot of speculation (not just by me) that DAL is closing, if so they would need to fly the LGA/DCA slots (or lease them out). MSP has been widely speculated as a destination because it is a logical geographic stop between LGA/DCA and SEA/PDX, and because of the build-up AS has been doing in MSP. MCI is another possibility with thrus to SFO/SAN/LAX possibly...

I think DTW would be better geographically positioned than either MCI or MSP plus the fact they would only need to go up against DL as in MSP you have Sun Country and Delta both to contend with.

joeljack wrote:

ASFlyer wrote:

joeljack wrote:

Hopefully OMA-SAN, that would make me super happy!!! I think there is a much larger market for this than OMA-PDX which is not performing too well. Although the PDX-OMA flight time is terrible, way too late, they need to move it up by 3 hours if Alaska wants it to work long term.

I haven't been keeping track of these loads over time but in looking just at the next week the OMA-PDX loads look pretty good to me. Not sure what you're basing your information off of.

Been watching flights since the route started. Per omaha airport website, 53 percent LF in January and the flights were dirt cheap. Routinely only $100 each way or just slightly more.

Yes, pretty full right now, spring break.

I'm confused, cause I looked at the OMA airport website and I see traffic statistics, but nothing broken out by route that I can see. According to the statistics, however, Alaska/Skywest carried 2,305 people. That's even more confusing to me because Skywest offers 2,356 seats a month on OMA-PDX. I must be missing something on the OMA web page. Can you point me to where they break the load factors out by route?

klm617 wrote:

I think DTW would be better geographically positioned than either MCI or MSP plus the fact they would only need to go up against DL as in MSP you have Sun Country and Delta both to contend with.

I am assuming you can run RJ-175s to MCI/MSP to the east and west coast and you can't run them to DTW from the west coast. So running through somewhere closer to the middle of the country gives them more options than DTW.

RWA380 wrote:

ucdtim17 wrote:

400+ mile Q400 routes are staying Q400

Not true, most all longer stage regional flying will be E-175's once QX has their 30+ from AAG & OO is flying an additional 30 or so on behalf of AAG under the Alaska banner.

I'm sure that will be the case some day, but the E175s being delivered this year all appear to be going to new routes

ASFlyer wrote:

joeljack wrote:

ASFlyer wrote:

I haven't been keeping track of these loads over time but in looking just at the next week the OMA-PDX loads look pretty good to me. Not sure what you're basing your information off of.

Been watching flights since the route started. Per omaha airport website, 53 percent LF in January and the flights were dirt cheap. Routinely only $100 each way or just slightly more.

Yes, pretty full right now, spring break.

I'm confused, cause I looked at the OMA airport website and I see traffic statistics, but nothing broken out by route that I can see. According to the statistics, however, Alaska/Skywest carried 2,305 people. That's even more confusing to me because Skywest offers 2,356 seats a month on OMA-PDX. I must be missing something on the OMA web page. Can you point me to where they break the load factors out by route?

They don't break it out, I was just doing it by the skywest number. I think you did your math wrong. Available seats: 31 days x 76 seats x 2 for each direction. = 4712 available seats. 2305/4712 = 48.9% LF. Fares were super cheap too! You could go roundtrip for just over $200 bucks which included taxes. I think OMA-PDX would do fine March-July but by following the data since it started, September-February is going to be very tough to make any money. This is the same reason why Delta does DTW-PDX on a seasonal basis only. Portland is a seasonal destination. Last fall and this fall, Nebraska and Oregon play each other in September so that helps that month out on a short term basis.

Jshank83 wrote:

klm617 wrote:

I think DTW would be better geographically positioned than either MCI or MSP plus the fact they would only need to go up against DL as in MSP you have Sun Country and Delta both to contend with.

I am assuming you can run RJ-175s to MCI/MSP to the east and west coast and you can't run them to DTW from the west coast. So running through somewhere closer to the middle of the country gives them more options than DTW.

Correct, the goal (I think) would be to be able to lower the risk of operating LGA/DCA to a non-hub as much as possible and the E175s are the key to that. While the E175 may be able to make it on paper to the East coast from SEA, the most they are flying it now is 1718 miles and there are a bunch of routes all clustered at that distance which tells me it is the limit. That's about the distance from SEA to MKE. Getting into Ohio and Michigan is considerably further.

So, only something like DCA-MKE/MCI/MSP-SEA works with an E175.

^STL would work also but unless they add more to them in the next expansion then I doubt that's the route they go.

ANCMSP if they want to stick it to DL

Adipocere wrote:

With AA and WN expected to slowly give up on PHX, this does open up more options for AS in the future to grab an even bigger slice of the West coast.

Who said they were giving up PHX? If anything AA might cut back, but I can't imagine WN downsizing it.

enilria wrote:

USAavdork wrote:

Hi Everyone. First of all, this is my first post. Thank You for all the years of fun reading and dedication you have all poured into this site.

Now, into the good stuff. When Alaska Airlines first announced SFO-MSP it raised an eyebrow. The times of the flights didnt "add up." It was obvious the first SFO-MSP wouldn't turn the second MSP-SFO. I thought someone would bring it up on here, but no one did! A former AS friend told me the PDX-MSP might be retuned but I knew there was something more to it.

Now... fast forward to last weeks announcement and we're left with the same problem: SFO-MCI couldn't turn MCI-SFO. (see schedules below). With that, I decided to do my own investigating. After contacting someone with more knowledge , it seems my assumptions were right on. So don't be suprised to see more announcements from Alaska this week With that, here is the only clue I can give you:

There has been a lot of speculation (not just by me) that DAL is closing, if so they would need to fly the LGA/DCA slots (or lease them out). MSP has been widely speculated as a destination because it is a logical geographic stop between LGA/DCA and SEA/PDX, and because of the build-up AS has been doing in MSP. MCI is another possibility with thrus to SFO/SAN/LAX possibly...

Shades of when AS bought Jet America. I know they flew MSP-DCA, not sure if they flew to LGA.

ANC MSP would be fantastic and highly successful in my view.

32andBelow wrote:

ANCMSP if they want to stick it to DL

I would love a direct flight from ANC to MSP. That being said, if they wanted to stick it to DL, it would be MSP-ANC with continuing service to Japan on one of the shinny new 737 MAX 9s... which they deferred delivery of.

No, it would not be wise or smart, but it would be one-stop service with a fuel stop right along the great circle route in a very fuel efficient aircraft... and it would be service that Northwest pioneered and built demand for. If it could at least break even, it would be a way to stick it to DL.

enilria wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

klm617 wrote:

I think DTW would be better geographically positioned than either MCI or MSP plus the fact they would only need to go up against DL as in MSP you have Sun Country and Delta both to contend with.

I am assuming you can run RJ-175s to MCI/MSP to the east and west coast and you can't run them to DTW from the west coast. So running through somewhere closer to the middle of the country gives them more options than DTW.

Correct, the goal (I think) would be to be able to lower the risk of operating LGA/DCA to a non-hub as much as possible and the E175s are the key to that. While the E175 may be able to make it on paper to the East coast from SEA, the most they are flying it now is 1718 miles and there are a bunch of routes all clustered at that distance which tells me it is the limit. That's about the distance from SEA to MKE. Getting into Ohio and Michigan is considerably further.

So, only something like DCA-MKE/MCI/MSP-SEA works with an E175.

Do you think running E175s coast to coast is really a sound business plan seem to me those would be pretty long and thin routes for such a small aircraft not to mention with the limited capacity that with all the transfer passengers going from east to west and V.V. there is going to be very limited space for a MSP/MCI passenger to get a seat on these flights.

klm617 wrote:

Do you think running E175s coast to coast is really a sound business plan seem to me those would be pretty long and thin routes for such a small aircraft not to mention with the limited capacity that with all the transfer passengers going from east to west and V.V. there is going to be very limited space for a MSP/MCI passenger to get a seat on these flights.

You can always upgauge later once you get more of a base. I am in no way saying this will happen. I am just saying if they wanted to start connections or thru traffic, I would see why they would choose a middle of the country place that more planes can fly in and out of than one that they have to use bigger planes. This could be at a number of different airports in this range. I don't want to specify any certain one.

klm617 wrote:

Do you think running E175s coast to coast is really a sound business plan seem to me those would be pretty long and thin routes for such a small aircraft not to mention with the limited capacity that with all the transfer passengers going from east to west and V.V. there is going to be very limited space for a MSP/MCI passenger to get a seat on these flights.

The E175 is quite comfortable. I don't think it is significantly different than an Airbus. I think the goal is that there wouldn't be that much space for thru passengers. They'd rather carry locals, but it's all about risk. If they don't get enough locals to fill it up they have a second option. This is exactly how a hub works, they just have only two O&Ds to fill the plane as opposed to maybe 50 at a hub. If they time it as a scissor hub they could theoretically have connections with PDX/SEA on one end and LGA/DCA on the other.

Could these flights be flowing (for example) SFO/PDX-MCI/MSP-DCA/LGA? Not sure that they'd want DCA/LGA to be EJets though.

^ I am flying on my first E175 SFO-STL on Monday. We will see how it goes. I guess I will know better how it compares on a long trip after that.

IMO Having a mid-continental hub just doesn't seem to fit in with the AS business model.

lets see if Horizon or SkyWest can even CREW all these planes on order, first.

AAG isnt too thrilled that QX is parking Q400s right now due to lack of crew.