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omaraljay
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Seatac Air Service Discussion

Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:56 pm

Couldn't find any recent threads on the subject so I decided to create this thread. Anyone feel free to join in and discuss anything related to SEA air service such as ideas, thoughts, what is to come in the future, etc. Thanks.
 
jplatts
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:05 pm

Will Southwest ever add nonstop service between Seattle and LAX? There is so much demand for Seattle-LAX nonstop service, and the LA metro area is the only major market in California that Southwest does not serve nonstop from Seattle. Southwest recently operated nonstops between Seattle and Orange County, but discontinued the nonstop service between Seattle and Orange County. Will Southwest Airlines also add nonstop service to any of the other LA area airports from Seattle, such as Burbank, Orange County, Ontario, or Long Beach?

Southwest does not yet operate nonstops from Seattle to San Francisco International Airport, even though it operates nonstops to Oakland, San Jose, and Sacramento from Seattle. Will Southwest add nonstops between Seattle and San Francisco International Airport?
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:21 pm

Southwest seems to be reducing service to SEA incrementally, even though they have gained a gate or two in the B concourse. On the other hand, I think other airlines including Spirit, Alaska and Delta will continue to grow beyond what has been announced thus far. I also think we'll see a few additional foreign airlines enter SEA from both Europe and Asia. With the recent ban on electronics on Middle East/African airlines, I think EK will reduce to 1X daily SEA-DXB.

I don't think WN will enter the SEA-LAX flights because right now, that route is bloodbath with everyone and their mother serving the route.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:35 pm

WN is starting 3x SFO-PDX this year, so SEA would certainly seem possible. Some retaliatory strikes at AS seem likely as AS keeps adding California service.

Then again, WN is not going to have a ton of spare planes this year as they wind down 300 service and start with the MAX in October.
 
jplatts
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:45 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
Southwest seems to be reducing service to SEA incrementally, even though they have gained a gate or two in the B concourse. On the other hand, I think other airlines including Spirit, Alaska and Delta will continue to grow beyond what has been announced thus far. I also think we'll see a few additional foreign airlines enter SEA from both Europe and Asia. With the recent ban on electronics on Middle East/African airlines, I think EK will reduce to 1X daily SEA-DXB.

I don't think WN will enter the SEA-LAX flights because right now, that route is bloodbath with everyone and their mother serving the route.


Will Southwest end up adding SEA-LAX flights once Virgin America and Alaska Airlines are fully integrated as a single carrier? Southwest could fill in the void left by the discontinuation of Virgin America SEA-LAX nonstops with the Alaska-Virgin America merger. In addition, Southwest has competitive advantages that would cause some travelers to choose Southwest over Alaska, Delta, American, United, or Spirit if Southwest operates SEA-LAX nonstops.
 
b6sea
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:17 am

jplatts wrote:

Will Southwest end up adding SEA-LAX flights once Virgin America and Alaska Airlines are fully integrated as a single carrier? Southwest could fill in the void left by the discontinuation of Virgin America SEA-LAX nonstops with the Alaska-Virgin America merger. In addition, Southwest has competitive advantages that would cause some travelers to choose Southwest over Alaska, Delta, American, United, or Spirit if Southwest operates SEA-LAX nonstops.


I think that if it were going to happen it would be most likely to occur after some sort of drawback by AS/VX, assuming they cut back SEA-LAX service, which is not guaranteed. I also think AS would probably retaliate if WN did launch such a service and may be conservative in terms of cuts to capacity on the route for that reason.

The other factor here is that it's not really clear to me how important SEA is to WN. I think if they served a route like SEA-LAX it would be a sort of prestige route for business travelers and I'm not entirely sure how much of that they capture in SEA. My guess is fairly little, but I don't know for certain. When you really think about it, WN has had an unusually difficult time at SEA (or are unusually disinterested in SEA) compared to other markets, and I don't really even have a theory about why that might be.
 
jplatts
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:04 am

b6sea wrote:
jplatts wrote:

Will Southwest end up adding SEA-LAX flights once Virgin America and Alaska Airlines are fully integrated as a single carrier? Southwest could fill in the void left by the discontinuation of Virgin America SEA-LAX nonstops with the Alaska-Virgin America merger. In addition, Southwest has competitive advantages that would cause some travelers to choose Southwest over Alaska, Delta, American, United, or Spirit if Southwest operates SEA-LAX nonstops.


I think that if it were going to happen it would be most likely to occur after some sort of drawback by AS/VX, assuming they cut back SEA-LAX service, which is not guaranteed. I also think AS would probably retaliate if WN did launch such a service and may be conservative in terms of cuts to capacity on the route for that reason.

The other factor here is that it's not really clear to me how important SEA is to WN. I think if they served a route like SEA-LAX it would be a sort of prestige route for business travelers and I'm not entirely sure how much of that they capture in SEA. My guess is fairly little, but I don't know for certain. When you really think about it, WN has had an unusually difficult time at SEA (or are unusually disinterested in SEA) compared to other markets, and I don't really even have a theory about why that might be.


Southwest has nonstops from Seattle to 4 of its 5 California destinations outside of the LA metro area. Southwest operates 15 daily nonstops between Seattle and Southwest's California destinations, and approximately 40% of Southwest's service in and out of Seattle is to destinations in California. Southwest currently competes with 4 of the 6 airlines that operate nonstop service between Seattle and LAX on nonstop service between Seattle and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Southwest Airlines already competes against Alaska Airlines on all 16 destinations that it serves nonstop from Seattle. Why would Alaska retaliate if Southwest launches SEA-LAX nonstops if Southwest is already in competition with Alaska in Seattle? Southwest would also be competing against all 3 of the big 3 legacy airlines (Delta, American, and United) as well as Spirit Airlines if it started nonstop service between Seattle and LAX.
 
ASFlyer
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:01 am

jplatts wrote:
b6sea wrote:
jplatts wrote:

Will Southwest end up adding SEA-LAX flights once Virgin America and Alaska Airlines are fully integrated as a single carrier? Southwest could fill in the void left by the discontinuation of Virgin America SEA-LAX nonstops with the Alaska-Virgin America merger. In addition, Southwest has competitive advantages that would cause some travelers to choose Southwest over Alaska, Delta, American, United, or Spirit if Southwest operates SEA-LAX nonstops.


I think that if it were going to happen it would be most likely to occur after some sort of drawback by AS/VX, assuming they cut back SEA-LAX service, which is not guaranteed. I also think AS would probably retaliate if WN did launch such a service and may be conservative in terms of cuts to capacity on the route for that reason.

The other factor here is that it's not really clear to me how important SEA is to WN. I think if they served a route like SEA-LAX it would be a sort of prestige route for business travelers and I'm not entirely sure how much of that they capture in SEA. My guess is fairly little, but I don't know for certain. When you really think about it, WN has had an unusually difficult time at SEA (or are unusually disinterested in SEA) compared to other markets, and I don't really even have a theory about why that might be.


Southwest has nonstops from Seattle to 4 of its 5 California destinations outside of the LA metro area. Southwest operates 15 daily nonstops between Seattle and Southwest's California destinations, and approximately 40% of Southwest's service in and out of Seattle is to destinations in California. Southwest currently competes with 4 of the 6 airlines that operate nonstop service between Seattle and LAX on nonstop service between Seattle and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Southwest Airlines already competes against Alaska Airlines on all 16 destinations that it serves nonstop from Seattle. Why would Alaska retaliate if Southwest launches SEA-LAX nonstops if Southwest is already in competition with Alaska in Seattle? Southwest would also be competing against all 3 of the big 3 legacy airlines (Delta, American, and United) as well as Spirit Airlines if it started nonstop service between Seattle and LAX.


Anything could happen but I cant see why Southwest would bother. They're eliminating the SEA-SNA flts and reducing SEA-SAN to 1 flt a day. Outside of that, they fly only from SEA to SJC, SMF and OAK. They just don't seem interested in getting in the middle of the AS/DL bloodbath on many routes. If they wanted to add service to SoCal, it would make sense for them to possibly add SEA-BUR/ONT. DL doesn't fly to either and WN has a strong presence in both markets. SEA-LAX has over 35 flights a day on 6 different airlines - it's a huge market and fares can be extremely low at times. I can't see much of a need for more seats in the, already saturated market.
 
fsafsx
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:21 am

I hope Seatac gets Aeromexico soon, theres a large Mexican population looking for a nonstop flight to Mexico City and Monterrey.
 
b6sea
Posts: 569
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:59 am

fsafsx wrote:
I hope Seatac gets Aeromexico soon, theres a large Mexican population looking for a nonstop flight to Mexico City and Monterrey.


We had them not too long ago. The problem seems to be the fact that SEA is at the end of the line for most travelers and I really don't know if there's enough O&D traffic to MEX. I could maybe see MEX work if they timed it to feed into flights to the rest of Central and South America, but I have no idea how easy it is to transit at Benito Juárez or if that airport being hot and high makes this a more expensive proposition than doing so elsewhere.

I would also love to see them come back though. Or AS launch something to MEX. I can't remember if that's a route they served or if that was just from LAX.
 
b6sea
Posts: 569
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:07 am

jplatts wrote:
b6sea wrote:
jplatts wrote:

Will Southwest end up adding SEA-LAX flights once Virgin America and Alaska Airlines are fully integrated as a single carrier? Southwest could fill in the void left by the discontinuation of Virgin America SEA-LAX nonstops with the Alaska-Virgin America merger. In addition, Southwest has competitive advantages that would cause some travelers to choose Southwest over Alaska, Delta, American, United, or Spirit if Southwest operates SEA-LAX nonstops.


I think that if it were going to happen it would be most likely to occur after some sort of drawback by AS/VX, assuming they cut back SEA-LAX service, which is not guaranteed. I also think AS would probably retaliate if WN did launch such a service and may be conservative in terms of cuts to capacity on the route for that reason.

The other factor here is that it's not really clear to me how important SEA is to WN. I think if they served a route like SEA-LAX it would be a sort of prestige route for business travelers and I'm not entirely sure how much of that they capture in SEA. My guess is fairly little, but I don't know for certain. When you really think about it, WN has had an unusually difficult time at SEA (or are unusually disinterested in SEA) compared to other markets, and I don't really even have a theory about why that might be.


Southwest has nonstops from Seattle to 4 of its 5 California destinations outside of the LA metro area. Southwest operates 15 daily nonstops between Seattle and Southwest's California destinations, and approximately 40% of Southwest's service in and out of Seattle is to destinations in California. Southwest currently competes with 4 of the 6 airlines that operate nonstop service between Seattle and LAX on nonstop service between Seattle and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Southwest Airlines already competes against Alaska Airlines on all 16 destinations that it serves nonstop from Seattle. Why would Alaska retaliate if Southwest launches SEA-LAX nonstops if Southwest is already in competition with Alaska in Seattle? Southwest would also be competing against all 3 of the big 3 legacy airlines (Delta, American, and United) as well as Spirit Airlines if it started nonstop service between Seattle and LAX.


Yeah, WN is dismantling their SEA network piece by piece (they used to serve BOI, GEG, RNO, etc). OAK is still a big destination for them, but otherwise their California flying from SEA has been suffering. And not serving the LA Basin from SEA is a HUGE hole. As big of an operation as WN has in the LA Basin, it's very surprising that SEA isn't in the mix there. And in case you hadn't noticed, AS has a long long history of retaliating against WN in Seattle. Remember when WN wanted to build a terminal at BFI? AS would not take kindly to WN (or anyone) ramping up service in SEA, especially to LAX. It's not just WN either, when Allegiant first launched service to BLI, AS was all over that, too. They're aggressive when it comes to protecting their home turf, as they should be, I think.

If I'm honest with you, I think WN scares AS a little. They're the only other airline that inspires the same kind of loyalty as AS. I prefer AS to WN hands down, but I see why people love WN too.
 
Prost
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:18 am

Here is an article that shows the Port of Seattle's thoughts in future SEA expansion:

https://www.theurbanist.org/2017/01/30/ ... an-update/
 
keitherson
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:23 am

My biggest gripe with SEA is the lack of support for international flights. I know they are currently renovating and fixing the whole customs/immigration hall and modernizing everything. There is a ton of domestic traffic at SEA, and it's a busy airport, but the international connections pale to YVR. Imagine if DL never came to SEA!
 
wedgetail737
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Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:51 am

keitherson wrote:
My biggest gripe with SEA is the lack of support for international flights. I know they are currently renovating and fixing the whole customs/immigration hall and modernizing everything. There is a ton of domestic traffic at SEA, and it's a busy airport, but the international connections pale to YVR. Imagine if DL never came to SEA!


I don't think SEA will ever reach the amount of international flights as YVR. But SEA has more international service now than it has ever had, with a couple of surprises like Xiamen Airlines to Shenzhen, 2nd flight to TPE on EVA, Eurowings this summer, Virgin Atlantic in a few days...and even the 2nd EK flight to DXB.
 
ASFlyer
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:32 am

keitherson wrote:
My biggest gripe with SEA is the lack of support for international flights. I know they are currently renovating and fixing the whole customs/immigration hall and modernizing everything. There is a ton of domestic traffic at SEA, and it's a busy airport, but the international connections pale to YVR. Imagine if DL never came to SEA!


I don't know if I think DL actually stimulated demand for international travel in Seattle as much as they addressed an already growing need. Perhaps, down the road, they could stimulate traffic on some routes that are marginal right now, but there has been a great need for additional international air service in Seattle for a while. Given the large numbers of immigrants coming to Seattle to work in the very large tech industry, and the resulting travel to and from their countries of origin, if Delta wasn't here there may have been a wider selection of new-to-Seattle airlines. I still think that Seattle is going to grow in terms of new international airlines.
 
fsafsx
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:01 pm

How about San Paulo flights? I know Seattle has a very large and fast growing Brazilian and Argentine population looking for a great option to go back to Brazil. tam airlines will connect other people to Bueno Aires and Santiago too.
 
georgiabill
Posts: 1262
Joined: Sat Mar 01, 2003 11:53 pm

Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:33 pm

Would an LP LIM-SEA-LIM with a 763 work 3 or 4 weekly to connect SEA with South America?
 
MaxTrimm
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Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2015 2:43 pm

Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:48 pm

fsafsx wrote:
How about San Paulo flights? I know Seattle has a very large and fast growing Brazilian and Argentine population looking for a great option to go back to Brazil. tam airlines will connect other people to Bueno Aires and Santiago too.

Nope. I can't see this coming anytime in the forseeable future.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:57 pm

I don't think there is a whole lot of demand for Central and South America except for tourism. But I think Alaska's partnerships along with other airlines already take up any sort of demand from SEA. The only Latin America service I see is expanded service from Volaris to maybe MEX or the reinstatement of AM service to SEA.
 
jplatts
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Sat Mar 25, 2017 11:48 pm

b6sea wrote:
jplatts wrote:
b6sea wrote:

I think that if it were going to happen it would be most likely to occur after some sort of drawback by AS/VX, assuming they cut back SEA-LAX service, which is not guaranteed. I also think AS would probably retaliate if WN did launch such a service and may be conservative in terms of cuts to capacity on the route for that reason.

The other factor here is that it's not really clear to me how important SEA is to WN. I think if they served a route like SEA-LAX it would be a sort of prestige route for business travelers and I'm not entirely sure how much of that they capture in SEA. My guess is fairly little, but I don't know for certain. When you really think about it, WN has had an unusually difficult time at SEA (or are unusually disinterested in SEA) compared to other markets, and I don't really even have a theory about why that might be.


Southwest has nonstops from Seattle to 4 of its 5 California destinations outside of the LA metro area. Southwest operates 15 daily nonstops between Seattle and Southwest's California destinations, and approximately 40% of Southwest's service in and out of Seattle is to destinations in California. Southwest currently competes with 4 of the 6 airlines that operate nonstop service between Seattle and LAX on nonstop service between Seattle and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Southwest Airlines already competes against Alaska Airlines on all 16 destinations that it serves nonstop from Seattle. Why would Alaska retaliate if Southwest launches SEA-LAX nonstops if Southwest is already in competition with Alaska in Seattle? Southwest would also be competing against all 3 of the big 3 legacy airlines (Delta, American, and United) as well as Spirit Airlines if it started nonstop service between Seattle and LAX.


Yeah, WN is dismantling their SEA network piece by piece (they used to serve BOI, GEG, RNO, etc). OAK is still a big destination for them, but otherwise their California flying from SEA has been suffering. And not serving the LA Basin from SEA is a HUGE hole. As big of an operation as WN has in the LA Basin, it's very surprising that SEA isn't in the mix there. And in case you hadn't noticed, AS has a long long history of retaliating against WN in Seattle. Remember when WN wanted to build a terminal at BFI? AS would not take kindly to WN (or anyone) ramping up service in SEA, especially to LAX. It's not just WN either, when Allegiant first launched service to BLI, AS was all over that, too. They're aggressive when it comes to protecting their home turf, as they should be, I think.

If I'm honest with you, I think WN scares AS a little. They're the only other airline that inspires the same kind of loyalty as AS. I prefer AS to WN hands down, but I see why people love WN too.


Despite the cuts that Southwest has made in Seattle, Southwest is actually going to be adding additional nonstops from Seattle to Chicago Midway, Denver, and Sacramento starting on June 4th an adding an additional nonstop from Seattle to Oakland starting on August 15th. Southwest is also going to be operating a 2nd nonstop between Seattle and San Diego from June 4th through August 15th. Southwest had added nonstops from Seattle to Dallas and Austin back in 2015 and extended the Seattle to Kansas City and Seattle to St. Louis nonstop service to year-round.
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:58 am

keitherson wrote:
My biggest gripe with SEA is the lack of support for international flights. I know they are currently renovating and fixing the whole customs/immigration hall and modernizing everything. There is a ton of domestic traffic at SEA, and it's a busy airport, but the international connections pale to YVR. Imagine if DL never came to SEA!


What are you talking about? Even if you factor DL out of the picture, SEA has enjoyed a huge boom in international travel in the last 5-6 years. DXB, PEK, PVG, SZX, and XMN come to mind, MUC starts this summer and several existing routes have seen added frequencies. All of DL's Asia routes but HKG compete against a foreign carrier.

As for the YVR comparison, that's​ apples/oranges. YVR will always be a more important Canadian gateway than SEA is an American one and therefore, will have more int'l service. SEA has to compete with LAX and SFO for service whereas YVR is the only show in the Pacific. The cities might be close to each other, but they're wildly different markets. The border makes a difference.

I'd love to see CX to HKG or TK to IST down the road. CX seems more likely, but I'm not holding my breath...
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5333
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: Seatac Air Service Discussion

Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:30 am

gunsontheroof wrote:
keitherson wrote:
My biggest gripe with SEA is the lack of support for international flights. I know they are currently renovating and fixing the whole customs/immigration hall and modernizing everything. There is a ton of domestic traffic at SEA, and it's a busy airport, but the international connections pale to YVR. Imagine if DL never came to SEA!


What are you talking about? Even if you factor DL out of the picture, SEA has enjoyed a huge boom in international travel in the last 5-6 years. DXB, PEK, PVG, SZX, and XMN come to mind, MUC starts this summer and several existing routes have seen added frequencies. All of DL's Asia routes but HKG compete against a foreign carrier.

As for the YVR comparison, that's​ apples/oranges. YVR will always be a more important Canadian gateway than SEA is an American one and therefore, will have more int'l service. SEA has to compete with LAX and SFO for service whereas YVR is the only show in the Pacific. The cities might be close to each other, but they're wildly different markets. The border makes a difference.

I'd love to see CX to HKG or TK to IST down the road. CX seems more likely, but I'm not holding my breath...


You can almost say DL is competing with Xiamen to Shenzhen (which is just down the bay from Hong Kong). Virgin Atlantic just started today as the replacement of DL on the SEA-LHR route. Don't forget too that we got Volaris to GDL and Eurowings (summer only) to Cologne, Germany. EVA also added the early morning 777-300ER flight to TPE...probably to scare CI from restarting SEA-TPE. Finally, anyone notice that Icelandair has been flying their 767-300's into SEA lately?

In my opinion, if DL did not make SEA an international hub, we would see more international players.

In addition to CX, I would like to see China Southern to Guangzhou, Norwegian, and maybe even Edelweiss or Level.

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