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Darklord1
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Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:14 am

You guys think we could see delta starting flights from SEA to PHL/IAH/DFW/MSY at some point in the next few years?
 
drdisque
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:21 am

PHL, IAH, and DFW will be necessary if they want to continue to push for large O&D markets and business contracts out of Seattle. Of course all three are into competitors' hubs so they will face stiff competition, especially PHL which is fairly long and thin.

I don't think MSY is necessary - not a big enough business route.

Other possibilities - MCI, STL
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:23 am

The addition of 3X SEA-ORD, DL will use as much gate resources it can. There could be some minor expansion...but nothing too significant.
 
Darklord1
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:33 am

Also might start those routes for head to head with as.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:00 am

SEA-IND DL already has a decent sized presence at IND (13 nonstop routes) so I wouldn't be surprised if they add SEA.
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ASFlyer
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:34 am

Just look at the Alaska route map. Any city that Delta doesn't currently fly to that Alaska does is a prime target.
 
EddieDude
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:55 am

Is it likely that DL (directly or through AM) brings back SEA-MEX that AM served for a while?
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jplatts
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:43 am

Delta previously had nonstop service from SEA to DFW back in the days when it had the DFW hub, and might revive SEA-DFW nonstop service with Delta's Seattle hub expansion.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:10 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
Just look at the Alaska route map. Any city that Delta doesn't currently fly to that Alaska does is a prime target.


Actually, no. The fact that an airport pair can support demand/fares for one carrier doesn't mean that it can support two. More capacity can drive down fares below acceptable thresholds. Cuts in frequency by the first carrier (to minimize fare reduction) can weaken both connectivity and time-specific O&D demand.
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:27 pm

Outside of the routes mentioned above, I would think the DC area would be a possibility given the size and importance of the market.
 
floridaflyboy
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:49 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
SEA-IND DL already has a decent sized presence at IND (13 nonstop routes) so I wouldn't be surprised if they add SEA.


Agreed. With the addition of MKE and BNA, I would think IND would be a logical add, especially with the AS partnership going away. NW did SEA-IND back in the focus city days.
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727200
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:09 pm

I have not seen any new figures lately, but is SEA a profitable hub?
 
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TWA302
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:26 pm

drdisque wrote:
PHL, IAH, and DFW will be necessary if they want to continue to push for large O&D markets and business contracts out of Seattle. Of course all three are into competitors' hubs so they will face stiff competition, especially PHL which is fairly long and thin.

I don't think MSY is necessary - not a big enough business route.

Other possibilities - MCI, STL



I would say SEA-STL is a good possibility. flights on WN are ALWAYS packed to SEA and back to STL. Unsure of the loads on AS though.
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:29 pm

drdisque wrote:
PHL, IAH, and DFW will be necessary if they want to continue to push for large O&D markets and business contracts out of Seattle. Of course all three are into competitors' hubs so they will face stiff competition, especially PHL which is fairly long and thin.

I don't think MSY is necessary - not a big enough business route.

Other possibilities - MCI, STL


Rumors going around down here that MSY-SEA will be announced next month as part of a larger build up from MSY. It's actually a logical addition.
Spread hope like fire.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:35 pm

bfitzflyer wrote:
Outside of the routes mentioned above, I would think the DC area would be a possibility given the size and importance of the market.


Yep, it seems to me that Dallas and D.C. are two of the biggest gaps in the current route profile from SEA. Both are also markets where DL has a strong presence, so I could see them working if timed appropriately. MCI, STL, and IND could also be decent secondary markets for DL to get into.

On the international front, I'd like to see DL bring back SEA-KIX and start SEA-TPE at some point. I know that's not likely coming in the next year or two, but SEA is probably DL's best hub to make either of those two work.
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DeltaRules
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:51 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
SEA-IND DL already has a decent sized presence at IND (13 nonstop routes) so I wouldn't be surprised if they add SEA.


Same thing with CMH. DL has 12 destinations, nobody flies to SEA.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
Darklord1
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:51 pm

What about sea-syd sometime in the future?
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:19 pm

Darklord1 wrote:
What about sea-syd sometime in the future?


Seems unlikely. LAX-SYD needs support as it is. SEA-BLR might work, or at least SEA-DEL. For domestic, ABQ/AUS/STL/PIT might be some good markets.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:26 pm

I am a little surprised that DL has not already started SEA-DFW. Not only is there strong business markets in both cities but there is also quite a few people flying from DFW to SEA in the non-winter months to go on cruises from Seattle and also to travel to Alaska.
 
Darklord1
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:54 pm

Bwi has had some success on AS. Maybe it could work on DL too?
 
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klm617
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:04 pm

How about GRR-SEA on an E-jet I think that should be doable.
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FSDan
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:07 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
Darklord1 wrote:
What about sea-syd sometime in the future?


Seems unlikely. LAX-SYD needs support as it is. SEA-BLR might work, or at least SEA-DEL. For domestic, ABQ/AUS/STL/PIT might be some good markets.


SEA-AUS is already starting this summer on an A319.
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commavia
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:08 pm

I agree with others that DFW seems like one of the most glaringly obvious remaining domestic adds for Delta out of SEA - big local market, plus healthy connecting demand both to the Pacific Northwest and Asia. I definitely expect Delta to begin SEA-DFW at some point in the future.
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:14 pm

FSDan wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
Outside of the routes mentioned above, I would think the DC area would be a possibility given the size and importance of the market.


Yep, it seems to me that Dallas and D.C. are two of the biggest gaps in the current route profile from SEA. Both are also markets where DL has a strong presence, so I could see them working if timed appropriately. MCI, STL, and IND could also be decent secondary markets for DL to get into.

On the international front, I'd like to see DL bring back SEA-KIX and start SEA-TPE at some point. I know that's not likely coming in the next year or two, but SEA is probably DL's best hub to make either of those two work.


Delta is currently restricted at Reagan Airport since its beyond-perimeter slots are already in use for nonstops from DCA to SLC and Delta is going to be using one of its two slots for DCA to LAX nonstop service. Delta nonstop service from SEA-DCA cannot happen without another airline giving up a beyond-perimeter slot at DCA or without Congress enacting legislation to grant Delta additional beyond-perimeter slots.

If Congress were to grant additional beyond perimeter slots at DCA, they should go to Delta and Southwest. Delta would be willing to use a beyond perimeter slot for a DCA-SEA nonstop, and Southwest would be willing to use several beyond-perimeter slots to go to beyond-perimeter destinations that its competitors serve nonstop from DCA. United already serves SFO-DCA and DEN-DCA nonstop, and LAX, which is the only other beyond-perimeter United hub, will have 4 nonstops to and from DCA when Delta starts nonstop service between LAX and DCA. In addition, United has a hub at Washington Dulles and already operates 6-9 daily nonstops between IAD and LAX.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:57 pm

jplatts wrote:
FSDan wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
Outside of the routes mentioned above, I would think the DC area would be a possibility given the size and importance of the market.


Yep, it seems to me that Dallas and D.C. are two of the biggest gaps in the current route profile from SEA. Both are also markets where DL has a strong presence, so I could see them working if timed appropriately. MCI, STL, and IND could also be decent secondary markets for DL to get into.

On the international front, I'd like to see DL bring back SEA-KIX and start SEA-TPE at some point. I know that's not likely coming in the next year or two, but SEA is probably DL's best hub to make either of those two work.


Delta is currently restricted at Reagan Airport since its beyond-perimeter slots are already in use for nonstops from DCA to SLC and Delta is going to be using one of its two slots for DCA to LAX nonstop service. Delta nonstop service from SEA-DCA cannot happen without another airline giving up a beyond-perimeter slot at DCA or without Congress enacting legislation to grant Delta additional beyond-perimeter slots.


They can start SEA-IAD or SEA-BWI whenever they'd like (assuming they can fit them into their SEA schedule).
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DiamondFlyer
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:
Just look at the Alaska route map. Any city that Delta doesn't currently fly to that Alaska does is a prime target.


Actually, no. The fact that an airport pair can support demand/fares for one carrier doesn't mean that it can support two. More capacity can drive down fares below acceptable thresholds. Cuts in frequency by the first carrier (to minimize fare reduction) can weaken both connectivity and time-specific O&D demand.


AS is going to have a very difficult time staffing their E-jet operation at Horizon, to the point that it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull a larger number of Q400's out of service. That might present an opening for Delta to expand to the smaller regional markets in the PNW.
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n7371f
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:40 am

DiamondFlyer wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:
Just look at the Alaska route map. Any city that Delta doesn't currently fly to that Alaska does is a prime target.


Actually, no. The fact that an airport pair can support demand/fares for one carrier doesn't mean that it can support two. More capacity can drive down fares below acceptable thresholds. Cuts in frequency by the first carrier (to minimize fare reduction) can weaken both connectivity and time-specific O&D demand.


AS is going to have a very difficult time staffing their E-jet operation at Horizon, to the point that it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull a larger number of Q400's out of service. That might present an opening for Delta to expand to the smaller regional markets in the PNW.


QX is, and has been, a mess for many months with crew limitations - many of which are due to the needed training of crews for the E75.
 
n7371f
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:57 am

OAK is on the list for SEA as I've been privy to see it. Now that was without an estimated start date. But I would care to guess that with extra jet bridges going in on B and S at SEA, we could be seeing RJ7, RJ9 & E75's going to OAK at some point.
 
dbo861
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 1:02 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
The addition of 3X SEA-ORD, DL will use as much gate resources it can. There could be some minor expansion...but nothing too significant.


This got me to thinking, isn't SEA very gate limited? With DL and AS continually adding routes at SEA, how much more room is there to grow?
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:10 pm

n7371f wrote:
OAK is on the list for SEA as I've been privy to see it. Now that was without an estimated start date. But I would care to guess that with extra jet bridges going in on B and S at SEA, we could be seeing RJ7, RJ9 & E75's going to OAK at some point.


Did that list have any other destinations on it? ;)
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ucdtim17
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 3:56 pm

n7371f wrote:
OAK is on the list for SEA as I've been privy to see it. Now that was without an estimated start date. But I would care to guess that with extra jet bridges going in on B and S at SEA, we could be seeing RJ7, RJ9 & E75's going to OAK at some point.


That seems to be the biggest western dot yet to connect and now with the AS relationship dying, it should be a priority
 
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N717TW
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:47 pm

SunsetLimited wrote:
drdisque wrote:
PHL, IAH, and DFW will be necessary if they want to continue to push for large O&D markets and business contracts out of Seattle. Of course all three are into competitors' hubs so they will face stiff competition, especially PHL which is fairly long and thin.

I don't think MSY is necessary - not a big enough business route.

Other possibilities - MCI, STL


Rumors going around down here that MSY-SEA will be announced next month as part of a larger build up from MSY. It's actually a logical addition.


Is there a lot of travel between MSY and PacNW? I ask because I don't know and wouldn't have guessed that it was a natural add for DL. Certainly DL has a strong franchise in Louisiana (having been founded there et al) but the natural links between the gulf region and the cascades seems small to me. From an Asia transit perspective, using DTW doesn't really add much (maybe 250 miles on a trip to PVG for example), so that doesn't seem to be the driving force here either.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:07 pm

DL would have a hard time on SEA-Houston with AS, NK and UA all on SEA-IAH and WN seasonal to HOU. DL would probably be better off doing SEA-HOU but most of the Houston O&D to SEA would be better served from IAH. DL would have an easier time with, and make more money in, SEA-DFW before IAH.
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TransGlobalGold
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:40 pm

There needs to be a permanent thread on this topic. It seems to pop up quite often.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:43 pm

Considering that DL already has a station at MNL, wouldn't it be a possibility once the IAF at SEA is finished?.....


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11725Flyer
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 10:59 pm

klm617 wrote:
How about GRR-SEA on an E-jet I think that should be doable.


Forget about it. It won't happen.
 
jetlanta
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:14 pm

11725Flyer wrote:
klm617 wrote:
How about GRR-SEA on an E-jet I think that should be doable.


Forget about it. It won't happen.


Actually, it is a very viable market, except that the E75 runs out of fuel over Lake Michigan. But the demand/fares are reasonable for nonstop service with a 76-seat jet.
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:34 pm

jetlanta wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:
klm617 wrote:
How about GRR-SEA on an E-jet I think that should be doable.


Forget about it. It won't happen.


Actually, it is a very viable market, except that the E75 runs out of fuel over Lake Michigan. But the demand/fares are reasonable for nonstop service with a 76-seat jet.


Any idea of what the PDEW numbers are?
 
msycajun
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 12:16 am

N717TW wrote:

Is there a lot of travel between MSY and PacNW? I ask because I don't know and wouldn't have guessed that it was a natural add for DL. Certainly DL has a strong franchise in Louisiana (having been founded there et al) but the natural links between the gulf region and the cascades seems small to me. From an Asia transit perspective, using DTW doesn't really add much (maybe 250 miles on a trip to PVG for example), so that doesn't seem to be the driving force here either.


MSY is the second largest market to SEA without two or more carriers (TPA is the largest, but obvious much farther). AS only flies once daily and the latest numbers I have are about 236 PDEW in Q2 16. BNA, slightly larger at 248, and RDU, a smaller market at 212 PDEW are both getting DL service to SEA, so the numbers are in the ballpark for a flight.
 
DakotaFlyer
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:56 am

Several months ago, there was a big push at FAR to get service to Seattle. Likely not going through happen, but DL does fly to FAR to ATL once daily. Could be possible much later down the line.
 
jetlanta
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 4:18 am

11725Flyer wrote:
jetlanta wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:

Forget about it. It won't happen.


Actually, it is a very viable market, except that the E75 runs out of fuel over Lake Michigan. But the demand/fares are reasonable for nonstop service with a 76-seat jet.


Any idea of what the PDEW numbers are?



55 PDEW annualized, 76 during the 3Q. Strong average fare of $241
 
dc10lover
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 7:31 am

I would think Delta will go deeper in the Seattle - California markets.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
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flymco753
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:28 pm

I remember someone sent me a few links a while back, airports like FSD, ABQ, HLN, and BZN were in search for DL nonstops to SEA. If I had them I'd share them, but those are a few markets to conversate about.

DL is supposedly adding a 2nd flight between SEA-MCO on a 757. Does the market really have enough travelers or is it really growing to the point SEA-MCO will be 4x daily? 2x 739 AS and 2x 757 DL MCO already feeds Asia to DTW so it's not entirely based on Asia.
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ericm2031
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:54 pm

jetlanta wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:
klm617 wrote:
How about GRR-SEA on an E-jet I think that should be doable.


Forget about it. It won't happen.


Actually, it is a very viable market, except that the E75 runs out of fuel over Lake Michigan. But the demand/fares are reasonable for nonstop service with a 76-seat jet.


Not sure a market can be considered "viable" if the plane can't physically make the trip.
 
bigbird
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:33 pm

How about MIA or FLL?
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Darklord1
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 4:44 pm

bigbird wrote:
How about MIA or FLL?

Already have a flight to fll every Friday. Would love to see this daily tho.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 4:54 pm

jetlanta wrote:
Actually, it is a very viable market, except that the E75 runs out of fuel over Lake Michigan. But the demand/fares are reasonable for nonstop service with a 76-seat jet.
...
55 PDEW annualized, 76 during the 3Q. Strong average fare of $241


"Very viable" market? That's discounting that (a) it's an 1800-mile flight, (b) a single frequency isn't going to capture more than half the market and (c) growth can largely be attributed to WN, which has placed placed downward pressure on the average fare. DL already carries about two/fifths of the market, with average fares well above the market average -- not really sure if they'd have much to gain (and more to lose) by going nonstop.
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papatango
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 5:54 pm

CMH. PLEASE!!!!
 
jetlanta
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 8:18 pm

compensateme wrote:
"Very viable" market? That's discounting that (a) it's an 1800-mile flight, (b) a single frequency isn't going to capture more than half the market and (c) growth can largely be attributed to WN, which has placed placed downward pressure on the average fare. DL already carries about two/fifths of the market, with average fares well above the market average -- not really sure if they'd have much to gain (and more to lose) by going nonstop.
ericm2031 wrote:
jetlanta wrote:
11725Flyer wrote:

Forget about it. It won't happen.


Actually, it is a very viable market, except that the E75 runs out of fuel over Lake Michigan. But the demand/fares are reasonable for nonstop service with a 76-seat jet.


Not sure a market can be considered "viable" if the plane can't physically make the trip.


I should have elaborated a bit more. I meant viable in that it is a market that could see service in a reasonable Network Planning timeframe, like 2-3 years. The local market growth has been pretty steady, adding in local market stimulation and beyond-SEA connecting opportunities available, you get to a point where the market can work...on a CS100. Same holds true for LAX, by the way.

The C-Series changes the model here and GRR is a VERY strong market, especially for Delta. That aircraft is going to open up a lot of Midwest/Southeast markets from the West Coast. GRR won't be the first to see this growth, but it will see it eventually.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta future routes from Seattle

Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:01 pm

jetlanta wrote:
compensateme wrote:
"Very viable" market? That's discounting that (a) it's an 1800-mile flight, (b) a single frequency isn't going to capture more than half the market and (c) growth can largely be attributed to WN, which has placed placed downward pressure on the average fare. DL already carries about two/fifths of the market, with average fares well above the market average -- not really sure if they'd have much to gain (and more to lose) by going nonstop.
ericm2031 wrote:
jetlanta wrote:

Actually, it is a very viable market, except that the E75 runs out of fuel over Lake Michigan. But the demand/fares are reasonable for nonstop service with a 76-seat jet.


Not sure a market can be considered "viable" if the plane can't physically make the trip.


I should have elaborated a bit more. I meant viable in that it is a market that could see service in a reasonable Network Planning timeframe, like 2-3 years. The local market growth has been pretty steady, adding in local market stimulation and beyond-SEA connecting opportunities available, you get to a point where the market can work...on a CS100. Same holds true for LAX, by the way.

The C-Series changes the model here and GRR is a VERY strong market, especially for Delta. That aircraft is going to open up a lot of Midwest/Southeast markets from the West Coast. GRR won't be the first to see this growth, but it will see it eventually.


Really good point on the C-Series. DL has said it will be a West Coast aircraft and it will line up well with the international arrivals timeline in SEA. I imagine it would be great on a route like SEA-MSY (not too much capacity, but gets in the door). While I am a big Boeing guy, I hope the C Series picks up even more with DL and with the rest of the US3, it will be a game changer with its range, seating, efficiency and passenger comfort, in my opinion.

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