aviationjunky
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NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:03 am

So, earlier today, the NFL voted for the removal and rebranding of the Oakland Raiders to Las Vegas. Now, the move isn't scheduled to fully take place until the completion of the 2019-2020 football season, so I don't believe we will see any major changes immediately, but it got me thinking.

Do you think we will see carriers drastically reducing flights, or even pulling out of OAK due to the lose of their NFL team?

And in contrast, how do you think the flight volume will increase and/or change in LAS? An increase in domestic flights, for sure. But what about international traffic? Since they are building and opening a 65,000 person stadium, this now qualifies them for hosting the Super Bowl, as well as host very large concerts, and even soccer games.

It should also be thrown out there that the local news here in Las Vegas is also reporting we are in line for and NBA team by 2021, as well as a MLB team by 2022. We got the approval for the NHL team in 2016, and they are expected to start in 2018.
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redzeppelin
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:24 am

IMO, this will have no effect at all on airline traffic at OAK. OAK will continue to serve the strong and growing local demand, and will continue to serve as an excellent alternative to congested and high-demand SFO. (I am actually writing this from a hotel room in SF after flying to OAK last night.) Foreign LCCs will continue to grow at OAK. I see nothing but blue skies there.
The Raiders were certainly loved by the community, but I can't imagine that they were directly responsible for much traffic at the airport. They only played 8 home games and 2 exhibitions per year. They might lose some mindshare among NFL fans who will no longer hear frequent references to Oakland, but that shouldn't matter much.
It's harder to gauge the impact for LAS. The Raiders in Vegas will probably draw a lot of out-of-town fans to games, but it is still just 8 games per year in a city that is already saturated with leisure, convention and event traffic all year... I doubt an NFL team will magically result in new routes and extra frequencies at the airport. The stadium will be a large and popular new event venue, but again, LAS already draws a TON of big events. Occasional events like a Super Bowl will generate a few temporary service increases, but I remain skeptical about any real measurable effect on full-year operations at an already busy airport. Busy airports are usually a sign that a city can support an NFL team, rather than the result of getting a team.
Last edited by redzeppelin on Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
n562wn
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:27 am

Considering the fact that the Raiders only actually play 20 or so days a year to include pre and post season and only 10 in OAK I can't imagine it will result in THAT dramatic of a change in travel demand there. I do think however that the addition of teams and brand new world class stadium in LAS will have a much larger impact there as it gives fans from all over the country and Canada another excuse to party in Vegas while their teams are in town. (Not to mention all the other venues the stadium will attract). People/fans are far more likely to travel to Vegas than the east bay in my opinion.
Last edited by n562wn on Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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coolian2
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:30 am

A fistful of charters will end up at LAS instead of OAK.
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deltal1011man
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:37 am

aviationjunky wrote:
So, earlier today, the NFL voted for the removal and rebranding of the Oakland Raiders to Las Vegas. Now, the move isn't scheduled to fully take place until the completion of the 2019-2020 football season, so I don't believe we will see any major changes immediately, but it got me thinking.

Do you think we will see carriers drastically reducing flights, or even pulling out of OAK due to the lose of their NFL team?

And in contrast, how do you think the flight volume will increase and/or change in LAS? An increase in domestic flights, for sure. But what about international traffic? Since they are building and opening a 65,000 person stadium, this now qualifies them for hosting the Super Bowl, as well as host very large concerts, and even soccer games.

It should also be thrown out there that the local news here in Las Vegas is also reporting we are in line for and NBA team by 2021, as well as a MLB team by 2022. We got the approval for the NHL team in 2016, and they are expected to start in 2018.

Will have very little effect
For a few weekends YOY the bay area airports might see a rounding error's worth of a drop but other than that, like someone else said.....LAS will have more charter planes.
 
Georgetown
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:26 am

There will be close to zero measurable impact for both OAK and LAS having anything to do with football.

There are 8 regular season games. For OAK, that leaves 357 days that will go unchanged (actually doubt there will be any changes to flight schedules at all based on football). Also most fans at Raider game are are local. For the handful of thousand that do fly in, many - if not most, especially for teams from the Midwest and East - will be going through SFO. Some even for SJC. Remember too, the Raiders play MUCH closer to downtown San Francisco than the 49ers do.

For LAS, it will barely be a tiny blip on the radar screen. Right now the Cowboys have the most opposing team fans at their games. Estimated to be about 40% according to a recent Time magazine article. The number that flew in is probably less. Now, let's have some fun and say that the Vegas Raiders exceed that by a lot and a whopping 60% of attendees at their games fly in. That's 39,000 people per game, for a total of 312,000 for all the regular season games.

LAS handled 47.4 million passengers last year. Those fans would account for just 0.6% of LAS's annual traffic. In reality it will be a lower number. Sure, there may be some concerts and other events there over the course of the year, but there's precious few acts/events that can play a 65k stadium. Even if you get 10-15 of those a year, which is about what MetLife in NJ/NY gets, it's not moving the needle over at LAS much if at all.
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Revelation
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:25 am

deltal1011man wrote:
Will have very little effect
For a few weekends YOY the bay area airports might see a rounding error's worth of a drop but other than that, like someone else said.....LAS will have more charter planes.

We presumably might see OAK-LAS charters since some Raiders fans will still want to follow the team. I know feelings are quite raw right now but when push comes to shove OAK fans really can either stop watching football, pick a new team, or remain Raiders fans.
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Newbiepilot
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:18 am

There will probably be a few extra game day flights OAK-LAS for people to go to the games. OAK-LAS is not driveable as a day trip.
 
thomasphoto60
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:54 pm

It would be interesting to see what effect on OAK had when the Raiders moved to LA in 1982 and their return in 1995. I suspect, very little if any.
"Show me the Braniffs"
 
727200
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:26 pm

Economics wise there will be an effect on the city, just not as big as the NFL claims a city adds to its revenue. Outside of a small blip, nothing. With 8 home games and 2 pre-season, this certainly isn't worth having a thread on.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:32 pm

Some thoughts.

That new 2 billion dollar stadium will be more than football for the Raiders and UNLV, the NCAA bowl profile will be raised as well as early season Marque neutral site games like you see in Dallas and Atlanta. Plus even larger events for boxing, othwr sporting events, concerts and even conferences.

What NBA team is moving, most are locked up in long term deals for the new areas that they are in. The last thing the NBA needs is a further dilution of product via expansion. The NBA needs to adopt MLB's draft rules regarding high school players.

As for MLB, outside of Tampa (Maybe the Diamondbacks if they don't get a new stadium) who.is moving. Last thing they need is expansion for quality of product on the field.

Wish the Chargers had got a new San Diego stadium. LA doesn't need two teams in spite of what the league thinks. It's been done before and it failed. It's a casual market plus it has two Big Time NCAA programs in USC and UCLA that caniblizes interest and loyalty. One was enough. Plenty of other deserving cities out there that willing to offer up stadium welfare for the status of having the NFL. In Fact, the NFL needs a 2nd division(AAA to MLB) to take up residence in the spring and early summer in a dozen or so markets plus international markets. They pulled the plug on the WFL or whatever it was. They desperately need a place to further develop QBs and other skill positions beyond just college ball plus offer more jobs in the sport to help balance the opposition to the physical nature of the sport.
 
georgiabill
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:33 pm

Chargers leaving SAN for LAX has had no negative up to now for SAN. In fact new flights have been announced since the Chargers decision to leave SAN.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:43 pm

It would be nice if a.net threads demanded a thesis supported by evidence and reason, as we expect of 9th grade children. The too-common string of ungrounded (no pun intended) questions doesn't so much advance understanding on a topic as it does make work for others.
 
Jshank83
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:08 pm

STL lost their team and traffic went up over 9% last year. I don't think it will have much of an effect. A few less people flying up from LA on Sunday but I am sure there will be some people flying out now to Vegas. I doubt it matters much.
 
Georgetown
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:35 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
It would be nice if a.net threads demanded a thesis supported by evidence and reason, as we expect of 9th grade children. The too-common string of ungrounded (no pun intended) questions doesn't so much advance understanding on a topic as it does make work for others.


Aw give him a break. I've asked plenty of questions on this site over the last decade that, when the responses roll in, I think "Oh, I guess that's kind of obvious, why didn't I think of it that way?" and thus my perspective and/or understanding of a concept was enhanced. I'm certainly not a dumb guy but sometimes the ol' noodle can be amusingly inefficient :smile: Exciting times for sure down in Vegas, easy to get swept up in it.
Let's go Hoyas!
 
dfwjim1
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:39 pm

Could the Raiders moving from OAK to LAS result in some die hard fans flying OAK to LAS for home games?
 
dfwjim1
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:42 pm

Could the Raiders moving from OAK to LAS result in some die hard fans flying OAK to LAS for home games?
 
ScottB
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:42 pm

Revelation wrote:
We presumably might see OAK-LAS charters since some Raiders fans will still want to follow the team. I know feelings are quite raw right now but when push comes to shove OAK fans really can either stop watching football, pick a new team, or remain Raiders fans.


I doubt there'd even be that many charters between OAK & LAS. WN flies the route 9x daily and they'd be very likely to add a few flights for game weekends and/or throw the 738s into the market for the popular frequencies around the game. I'd expect the same from UA and AS at SFO (not all Raiders fans are in the East Bay, assuming they stay Raiders fans).
 
dfwjim1
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:44 pm

Could the Raiders moving from OAK to LAS result in some die hard fans flying OAK to LAS for home games?
 
32andBelow
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:59 pm

LAX-LAS flights are going to be packed during raiders home game.
 
SeaDoo
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:01 pm

I am in agreement with the above comments that this will likely have no effect on Oakland flights. If there is a change, I would wonder if there would be an additional flight on game day or the day before to get Oakland fans to Las Vegas and back home.
 
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intotheair
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:25 pm

I don't know how Hawaiian cycles around their A330s between pax and charter operations, but it's possible HA could downguage OAK and upgauge LAS. That's perhaps the only tangible effect I could possibly fathom with the Raiders move. And that's a stretch.

Aside from that, I think OAK will only grow. As SFO continues to get more congested, OAK will grow to be a much better alternative. The terminals look fairly decent compared to the era 15 years ago when the whole place smelled like Round Table. Also, the BART connector is really nice and convenient. Maybe a little pricey, but so is the SFO exit, and OAK to downtown SF on BART is now about the same duration as SFO to downtown SF. It's really not a bad option for European tourists or business travelers. Things look good with three TATL carriers this summer; maybe the domestic market can be stimulated beyond WN too.
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32andBelow
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:03 pm

intotheair wrote:
I don't know how Hawaiian cycles around their A330s between pax and charter operations, but it's possible HA could downguage OAK and upgauge LAS. That's perhaps the only tangible effect I could possibly fathom with the Raiders move. And that's a stretch.

Aside from that, I think OAK will only grow. As SFO continues to get more congested, OAK will grow to be a much better alternative. The terminals look fairly decent compared to the era 15 years ago when the whole place smelled like Round Table. Also, the BART connector is really nice and convenient. Maybe a little pricey, but so is the SFO exit, and OAK to downtown SF on BART is now about the same duration as SFO to downtown SF. It's really not a bad option for European tourists or business travelers. Things look good with three TATL carriers this summer; maybe the domestic market can be stimulated beyond WN too.

Round table is great lol.
 
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SANFan
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:22 pm

georgiabill wrote:
Chargers leaving SAN for LAX has had no negative up to now for SAN. In fact new flights have been announced since the Chargers decision to leave SAN.

On the contrary, January pax traffic at Lindbergh was DOWN 2.5%!!!! Holy Goalpost, Batman -- now I know why!!!!

This really is a silly thread. When I first saw it, I wondered if it would get any serious responses. But, here I am, participating, though certainly not seriously...

bb
 
TransGlobalGold
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:22 pm

Revelation wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
Will have very little effect
For a few weekends YOY the bay area airports might see a rounding error's worth of a drop but other than that, like someone else said.....LAS will have more charter planes.

We presumably might see OAK-LAS charters since some Raiders fans will still want to follow the team. I know feelings are quite raw right now but when push comes to shove OAK fans really can either stop watching football, pick a new team, or remain Raiders fans.


I really doubt there will be enough fans flying to LAS to see the "home games". It might be a novelty at first, but that's about it. A lot cheaper to watch the games on TV, which I expect bay area TV stations to carry.
 
tys777
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:46 pm

Everyone is missing the real question.

How will this move affect service on DTW-OAK and DTW-LAS? In addition how any reduction of service from DTW-the west coast overall and how this reduction is further proof on how DL hates DTW.
 
aviationjunky
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:07 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Some thoughts.

What NBA team is moving, most are locked up in long term deals for the new areas that they are in. The last thing the NBA needs is a further dilution of product via expansion. The NBA needs to adopt MLB's draft rules regarding high school players.

As for MLB, outside of Tampa (Maybe the Diamondbacks if they don't get a new stadium) who.is moving. Last thing they need is expansion for quality of product on the field.


Last year, they built and opened the T-Mobile arena, which was for the Las Vegas NHL team. However, the arena was built as a basketball arena, turned ice hockey rink. The CEO of MGM International is pushing the funding for a Las Vegas based NBA team. See link: http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/basketball/mgm-ceo-jim-murren-pursuing-nba-team-las-vegas-t-mobile-arena

As far as MLB, the MLB commissioner said that Las Vegas was a viable market for an expansion team. That news broke almost a year ago, before the Raiders were in talks to come. See link: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-commissioner-says-las-vegas-is-a-viable-spot-for-an-expansion-team/
LAS is Life
 
b747400erf
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:10 pm

Less flights diverted or delayed due to drunk or violent passengers at OAK
 
737tanker
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:12 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see the A's leave Oakland and follow the Raiders to Las Vegas.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:27 pm

737tanker wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see the A's leave Oakland and follow the Raiders to Las Vegas.


A little off topic but this is not happening https://twitter.com/search?q=%23RootedI ... d&src=tyah

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/18/a ... -ballpark/
 
azjubilee
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:47 pm

intotheair wrote:
I don't know how Hawaiian cycles around their A330s between pax and charter operations, but it's possible HA could downguage OAK and upgauge LAS. That's perhaps the only tangible effect I could possibly fathom with the Raiders move. And that's a stretch..


HA already flies the 330 on all 18 weekly flights between HNL and LAS, so there's no more upgauging to be had. Ferry flights and ad-hoc additions/cancels are how they fit the Raiders into the flying schedule. Instead of the charter originating in OAK with the team, it will be Vegas after the move.

With as many diehard fans the Raiders have in Hawaii, the Hawaii-Vegas business will only increase when home games are played. I would anticipate an increase in package deals for locals to travel to Vegas for the games. The love affair locals have with Vegas cannot be understated.
 
flyfresno
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:50 pm

SWA usually adds an extra RT from ONT and LAX to OAK on home game days. You'll likely see those moved to LAS, but also maybe see an extra OAK-LAS on game days. There will also be fewer charter flights. Overall, for an airport the size of OAK, the effect will be marginal...
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:01 am

zero effect
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milemaster
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:08 am

Image

MIflyer12 wrote:
It would be nice if a.net threads demanded a thesis supported by evidence and reason, as we expect of 9th grade children. The too-common string of ungrounded (no pun intended) questions doesn't so much advance understanding on a topic as it does make work for others.
 
strfyr51
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:07 am

coolian2 wrote:
A fistful of charters will end up at LAS instead of OAK.



I seriously doubt that
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:53 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
It would be nice if a.net threads demanded a thesis supported by evidence and reason, as we expect of 9th grade children. The too-common string of ungrounded (no pun intended) questions doesn't so much advance understanding on a topic as it does make work for others.

Will be sure to keep that in mind for the next Miami related thread
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Adipocere
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:26 am

I'd expect some, if not most, of the Raider fans to become 9er fans within about a generations time span...
 
coolian2
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:54 am

strfyr51 wrote:
coolian2 wrote:
A fistful of charters will end up at LAS instead of OAK.



I seriously doubt that

You're telling me that teams will fly in and out of OAK and drive to Vegas, instead of flying to Las Vegas?
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flyfresno
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:40 am

Adipocere wrote:
I'd expect some, if not most, of the Raider fans to become 9er fans within about a generations time span...


I dunno, many people in the Bay, including (but not limited to) Raiders fans, are pretty pissed at the 9ers. I think it would take the Yorks selling the team and then them moving out of that awful stadium and back North to recruit any of them...
 
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intotheair
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Re: NFL Raiders to LAS, How Will it Impact OAK

Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:47 am

tys777 wrote:
Everyone is missing the real question.

How will this move affect service on DTW-OAK and DTW-LAS? In addition how any reduction of service from DTW-the west coast overall and how this reduction is further proof on how DL hates DTW.


Seals the fate of DL ever resuming DTW-OAK. Sad! OAK-DTW-Asia is such a high-yielding segment of the market compared to all the nonstops from SFO. :P

azjubilee wrote:
intotheair wrote:
I don't know how Hawaiian cycles around their A330s between pax and charter operations, but it's possible HA could downguage OAK and upgauge LAS. That's perhaps the only tangible effect I could possibly fathom with the Raiders move. And that's a stretch..


HA already flies the 330 on all 18 weekly flights between HNL and LAS, so there's no more upgauging to be had. Ferry flights and ad-hoc additions/cancels are how they fit the Raiders into the flying schedule. Instead of the charter originating in OAK with the team, it will be Vegas after the move.


Thanks for this. To be honest, I'm just not that familiar with HA's schedule and was too lazy to look it up myself. :P So it's about what I thought: no effect on the OAK market.
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