FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3M FLL-GGT JUN 0.7>0.9 JUL 0.7>0.9 AUG 0.7>0.8 SEP 0.7>0.9 OCT 0.7>0.8 NOV 0.7>0.9 DEC 0.7>0.9

AA BOS-BUF JUL 3>1.5 AUG 3>1.9
AA CLT-BHM JUL 8>7
AA CLT-DTW JUL 8>7
AA CLT-HSV JUL 5>4
AA CLT-IND JUL 9>8
AA CLT-LGA JUL 13>12 AUG 13>12
AA CLT-MYR AUG 8>9
AA CLT-OAJ JUL 7>6
AA CLT-PBI JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
AA CLT-PNS AUG 4>5
AA CLT-SAN AUG 2>3
AA CLT-SEA JUL 3>4 AUG 2>4
AA DAY-LGA JUL 1.9>3
AA DCA-BDL JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7
AA DCA-CHS JUL 4>3
AA DCA-GSP JUL 3>1.7
AA DCA-PBI JUL 1.9>1.0 AUG 2>1.3
AA DCA-ROC JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AA DCA-SDF JUL 4>3
AA DCA-TPA AUG 5>4
AA DCA-YYZ DEC 3>1.8
Seems like a lot of DFW reductions
AA DFW-ABI JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6 DEC 7>6
AA DFW-CLL JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA DFW-COS AUG 6>5 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 6>5 DEC 5>4
AA DFW-DAY AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
AA DFW-DSM AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 5>4 DEC 4>3
AA DFW-EGE OCT 0.1>1.0
AA DFW-EWR JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
AA DFW-FLL SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5
AA DFW-GSP SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3 NOV 2>3 DEC 2>3
AA DFW-HOU JUL 9>7 AUG 9>7 SEP 9>7 OCT 9>7 NOV 9>7 DEC 9>7
AA DFW-ICT JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>5 OCT 7>5 NOV 7>6 DEC 7>6
AA DFW-JAN JUL 7>6 AUG 8>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 NOV 8>7 DEC 7>6
AA DFW-LFT JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA DFW-LGA JUL 12>11 AUG 13>12
AA DFW-LIT JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8 SEP 9>8 OCT 9>8 NOV 9>8 DEC 9>8
AA DFW-MAF JUL 6>5 AUG 7>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 7>6 DEC 6>5
AA DFW-MCI JUL 8>7 AUG 9>8 SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 9>8 DEC 8>7
AA DFW-MCO JUL 10>9 AUG 11>9 SEP 10>8 OCT 10>8 NOV 11>9 DEC 10>8
AA DFW-MEM JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 DEC 7>6
AA DFW-MLU SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2 DEC 3>2
AA DFW-MSY JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8 SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 9>8 DEC 8>7
AA DFW-PDX SEP 4>5
AA DFW-SHV JUL 7>6 AUG 8>7
AA DFW-SJC SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5
AA DFW-SJT JUL 5>3 AUG 5>3 SEP 5>3 OCT 5>3 NOV 5>3 DEC 5>3
AA DFW-SMF SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 5>6 DEC 4>5
AA DFW-STL JUL 8>7 AUG 9>7 SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 9>8 DEC 8>7
AA DFW-TYR JUL 5>4
AA DFW-VPS JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
AA DFW-YUL SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
AA GSO-LGA JUL 3>1.7
AA IND-LGA JUL 3>1.6
AA JFK-DFW JUL 1.1>3 AUG 1.0>3 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
AA JFK-SFO AUG 6>5 SEP 7>5
Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0
AA LAX-DFW JUL 14>13
AA LAX-MCO AUG 2>3
AA LAX-RNO JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA LAX-SEA JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA LAX-SFO JUL 13>12 AUG 13>12 SEP 13>12 OCT 13>12 NOV 13>12 DEC 13>12
AA LAX-SLC AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
AA LAX-SMF JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA LAX-STL JUL 3>2
AA LAX-YVR SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
AA LGA-STL JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
AA LGA-YYZ JUL 5>4
That didn't last long
*AA MIA-HPN AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0
AA ORD-BOS JUL 9>10 AUG 9>10
AA ORD-BUF JUL 5>6 AUG 4>6
AA ORD-CMI JUL 6>5
AA ORD-DEN JUL 5>6 AUG 4>6
AA ORD-EWR JUL 7>6
AA ORD-FLL JUL 4>3
AA ORD-FSD AUG 2>3
AA ORD-FWA JUL 4>3
AA ORD-IND JUL 9>8
AA ORD-LAN JUL 3>2
AA ORD-LAS AUG 4>5
AA ORD-LGA JUL 14>15 AUG 14>15 SEP 14>16 OCT 14>16
AA ORD-MCI JUL 7>6
AA ORD-MEM JUL 3>4
AA ORD-MSY JUL 3>2
AA ORD-OKC JUL 3>4
AA ORD-OMA JUL 5>6
AA ORD-ORF JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AA ORD-PBI JUL 3>1.0 AUG 3>1.6
AA ORD-PDX JUL 1.2>3 AUG 1.0>3
AA ORD-RDU JUL 4>5 AUG 3>4
AA ORD-RIC JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AA ORD-RNO JUL 1.1>1.9 AUG 1.0>1.7
AA ORD-ROC JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
AA ORD-RSW JUL 4>2 AUG 4>3
AA ORD-SEA JUL 4>5 AUG 3>5
AA ORD-SJC AUG 2>3
AA ORD-SLC AUG 3>4
AA ORD-SNA JUL 4>5 AUG 3>5
AA ORD-TUL JUL 3>2
AA ORD-TVC JUL 4>5 AUG 3>4
AA ORD-YYZ JUL 6>5
AA PHL-ABE JUL 3>2.0
AA PHL-BGR JUL 5>6 AUG 4>5
AA PHL-BTV JUL 6>5
AA PHL-BWI SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2 DEC 3>2
AA PHL-CHS AUG 3>4
AA PHL-CMH SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
AA PHL-IAH SEP 3>2
AA PHL-IPT JUL 3>2
AA PHL-LAS SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA PHL-MDT JUL 6>5
AA PHL-ORD JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9
AA PHL-ORF JUL 6>7
AA PHL-RDU JUL 8>7 SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 8>7 DEC 8>7
AA PHL-ROC JUL 5>6
AA PHL-SAV AUG 2>3
AA PHL-SEA SEP 4>3
AA PHL-STL SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA PHL-SWF JUL 3>1.9
AA PHL-YUL JUL 6>5
AA PHL-YYZ JUL 6>5
AA PHX-BUR JUL 5>3 AUG 5>4
AA PHX-CLT AUG 8>9
AA PHX-DRO JUL 3>2
AA PHX-DTW JUL 3>1.9 AUG 4>3
AA PHX-LAX JUL 9>8 AUG 10>8
AA PHX-ORD JUL 9>10
AA PHX-SBP AUG 3>4
AC CVG-YYZ MAY 3>2

*AI IAD-DEL JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.5

AJ FXE-GHB MAY 0.4>0.6 JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.5>0.6 AUG 0.4>0.5 SEP 0.5>0.6 OCT 0.4>0.5 NOV 0.4>0.6 DEC 0.5>0.6

That's surprising, but given AM's eratic schedules I'd wait a week.
**AM IAH-MTY MAY 1.7>0.1 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0 AUG 1.7>0 SEP 1.7>0 OCT 1.7>0 NOV 1.7>0 DEC 1.7>0

AV IAD-SAL JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AV IAH-SAL JUL 0.7>0.9

B6 JFK-PUJ OCT 1.9>3
B6 JFK-SJU OCT 4>5
B6 JFK-STI OCT 4>5
B6 MCO-BOS OCT 7>8

YOY Compare
B6 BDL-PBI OCT 1.0>1.9
B6 BDL-SJU NOV 1.1>1.3
B6 BOS-ATL OCT 0>5 NOV 0>5 DEC 0>5
B6 BOS-BDA OCT 0.5>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 BOS-BGI OCT 0>0.1
*B6 BOS-LAX NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
B6 BOS-LGA OCT 0.2>5
B6 BOS-MBJ OCT 0>0.1
B6 BOS-MSY NOV 2.0>1.0
B6 BOS-PAP NOV 0>0.3
B6 BOS-PBI OCT 3>4
B6 BOS-PHL OCT 5>6 NOV 5>6 DEC 4>5
B6 BOS-PIT OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5
B6 BOS-PUJ DEC 0.5>0.3
B6 BOS-RSW NOV 6>5
B6 BOS-SFO OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
B6 BOS-SJC OCT 0.8>0.6
B6 BOS-SJU OCT 3>1.7
B6 BOS-SLC OCT 1.0>0.6 NOV 1.0>0.7
B6 BOS-SRQ OCT 0.1>1.0
B6 BOS-STI OCT 0.5>0.7 NOV 0.4>0.8
B6 BOS-STT OCT 0.2>0.1 NOV 0.5>0.3
B6 BOS-SXM OCT 0.3>0.1 DEC 0.3>0.5
B6 EWR-PBI OCT 2.0>3
B6 EWR-SJU NOV 1.1>1.0 DEC 1.5>1.4
B6 EWR-STI OCT 1.0>0.7
B6 EWR-TPA OCT 1.1>2
B6 FLL-AUA OCT 0>0.7 NOV 0>0.8 DEC 0>0.9
B6 FLL-BDL OCT 1.1>2
B6 FLL-BGI OCT 1.0>0.5 NOV 1.0>0.4 DEC 1.0>0.7
B6 FLL-BQN OCT 1.0>0.6 NOV 1.0>0.8
B6 FLL-BUF OCT 0>0.8
B6 FLL-CMW OCT 0>1.0
B6 FLL-EWR OCT 4>5
B6 FLL-HAV OCT 0>1.9 NOV 0>1.9 DEC 0>1.8
B6 FLL-HOG OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0.7>1.0
B6 FLL-LGA OCT 6>5
B6 FLL-MDE OCT 0.6>0.9 NOV 0.5>0.8
B6 FLL-MEX OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
B6 FLL-NAS OCT 5>4
B6 FLL-ORD OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 FLL-POS OCT 1.0>0.5 NOV 1.0>0.6 DEC 1.0>0.6
B6 FLL-RDU OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
B6 FLL-RIC OCT 1.0>2.0 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
B6 FLL-SAN OCT 1.0>0.6
B6 FLL-SDQ NOV 1.2>1.0 DEC 1.8>1.6
B6 FLL-SJU OCT 5>4 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
B6 FLL-SYR NOV 0.7>0.5
B6 HPN-PBI NOV 3>4
B6 JFK-BDA OCT 1.0>1.9 DEC 0.9>1.0
B6 JFK-BGI OCT 1.8>1.5 NOV 3>1.8
B6 JFK-BQN NOV 1.1>1.0
B6 JFK-CTG OCT 0.4>0.3 NOV 0.4>0.3
B6 JFK-CUN NOV 2>1.8
B6 JFK-CUR OCT 0.3>0.4
B6 JFK-FLL DEC 9>8
B6 JFK-GND OCT 0.6>0.7
B6 JFK-HAV OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 JFK-KIN NOV 1.6>2 DEC 3>2
B6 JFK-LAX NOV 9>10 DEC 9>10
B6 JFK-LIR NOV 0.6>0.1 DEC 0.7>0.5
B6 JFK-LRM NOV 0.3>0.1
B6 JFK-MBJ NOV 2>1.8
B6 JFK-NAS NOV 1.5>1.3 DEC 1.9>1.7
B6 JFK-OAK OCT 0.9>0.6
B6 JFK-POS DEC 1.4>1.5
B6 JFK-PSE OCT 1.0>0.7
B6 JFK-PUJ NOV 3>2.0
B6 JFK-SDQ DEC 6>5
B6 JFK-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7
B6 JFK-SJU OCT 4>5
B6 JFK-SRQ OCT 0.1>1.0
B6 JFK-TPA NOV 5>6
B6 LGB-FLL OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 LGB-LAS OCT 5>7 NOV 4>6
B6 LGB-SFO OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
B6 LGB-SJC OCT 0>4 NOV 0>4 DEC 0>4
B6 LGB-SLC OCT 2>4 NOV 2>4 DEC 3>4
B6 MCO-BOG NOV 0.6>0.8
B6 MCO-CUN NOV 1.3>1.0
B6 MCO-EWR NOV 8>7 DEC 8>7
B6 MCO-HAV OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 MCO-HPN NOV 4>3
B6 MCO-LAX OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 MCO-LGA OCT 5>4
B6 MCO-MEX OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
B6 MCO-NAS DEC 1.0>0.9
B6 MCO-PSE NOV 1.4>1.0 DEC 1.8>1.4
B6 MCO-SJU NOV 6>5
B6 TPA-SJU OCT 1.5>1.1 NOV 1.6>1.8 DEC 1.7>2

*BA LAX-LHR NOV 1.9>3 DEC 1.9>3
BA MSY-LHR NOV 0.6>0.7 DEC 0.6>0.7

DL GEG-MSP JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL ICT-MSP JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL PHL-LHR SEP 0.8>0.6
DL SLC-MIA AUG 0.7>0.5

Probably a charter?
EI JFK-LHR DEC 0>0.1

*F9 MCO-SJU JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.4
*F9 PHL-SJU JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.4

HA HNL-LAX DEC 3>2
HA HNL-OGG NOV 28>27 DEC 28>27

HI BLD-GCW MAY 0.7>0 JUN 0.7>0 JUL 0.7>0 AUG 0.7>0 SEP 0.7>0 OCT 0.7>0
HI GCN-GCW OCT 0>0.7 NOV 0>0.7 DEC 0>0.7

I4 CGA-KLW JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
I4 KLW-KTN JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4

*NK BWI-RSW JUN 1.0>0.5 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

NS HBR-SJW MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0 AUG 0.6>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.6>0 NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.6>0

*P1 AUS-VCT MAY 0.9>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.8>0 OCT 0.9>0
*P1 DFW-DRT MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9
*P1 DFW-VCT MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9
*P1 IAH-VCT MAY 0.9>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.8>0 OCT 0.9>0

PD BOS-YTZ DEC 3>5
PD EWR-YTZ DEC 7>11
PD IAD-YTZ DEC 1.2>3
PD MDW-YTZ DEC 3>5

TA MIA-MGA JUN 1.0>1.1 JUL 1.0>1.2 AUG 1.0>1.2

TJ BOS-HPN MAY 0>1.4

UA DEN-GCC JUL 1.8>3 AUG 1.9>3 SEP 1.8>3 OCT 1.9>3
UA DEN-ICT SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5
UA EWR-BNA SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
UA EWR-MSY SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3 DEC 4>3
UA IAD-PVD JUN 4>3
UA IAH-ABQ NOV 3>4
UA IAH-CRP SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6 DEC 7>6
UA IAH-DEN OCT 13>12 NOV 13>12 DEC 13>12
UA IAH-LBB SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA IAH-LIR AUG 1.6>1.2
UA IAH-NAS AUG 1.0>0.5
UA IAH-PVR AUG 1.5>1.1
UA IAH-SJO SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
UA SFO-DEN SEP 13>12
UA SFO-SEA JUL 10>9
UA SFO-SNA NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7

VS ATL-MAN OCT 0.9>0.6

*WW ORD-KEF JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.6 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.5

enilria wrote:

Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0
B6 JFK-SJU OCT 4>5

To me that's a huge shocker to see them out of that. AND YES, it's missing on AA.com I looked to be sure. Looks like B6 already reacted. Didn't AA fly that like 7+ RT at one point?

enilria wrote:

Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0

Assuming this is true, and not another error like LGA-YYZ, that will, indeed, be quite sad - this is a market AA has operated continuously for nearly five decades. That said, I guess it wouldn't come as too big a surprise - the route has been down to just two daily 737s, and the Puerto Rico economy continues to stagnate. And, obviously, AA is a shadow of its former self in SJU, and in the NYC-Caribbean market in general which it has largely ceded to competitors (especially JetBlue). Still - if true, definitely the end of an era.

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0

Assuming this is true, and not another error like LGA-YYZ, that will, indeed, be quite sad - this is a market AA has operated continuously for nearly five decades. That said, I guess it wouldn't come as too big a surprise - the route has been down to just two daily 737s, and the Puerto Rico economy continues to stagnate. And, obviously, AA is a shadow of its former self in SJU, and in the NYC-Caribbean market in general which it has largely ceded to competitors (especially JetBlue). Still - if true, definitely the end of an era.

Seems like a filing error? UA is running 772's on the route at times from EWR. Too popular not to run?

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0

Assuming this is true, and not another error like LGA-YYZ, that will, indeed, be quite sad

fun2fly wrote:

Seems like a filing error?

If it is another error, it was a really dumb one as B6 clearly added a RT to respond already!

fun2fly wrote:

Seems like a filing error? UA is running 772's on the route at times from EWR. Too popular not to run?

Can't compare the two. United has a megahub at EWR and dominates EWR O&D. AA does not enjoy that level of market dominance at JFK, where there is intense competition on the SJU route from Delta and JetBlue, both of which are larger than AA at JFK. In addition, SJU does - honestly - seem a bit out of place with the market niche that AA appears to be working towards in NYC - business-heavy O&D markets, and premium leisure markets for the FFs in those business-heavy O&D markets when they go on vacation. In the context of the Caribbean, there are exceptions, but in general that means, for example, AA flights to ANU, STT, SKB, etc. and no more AUA, MBJ, and maybe SJU, etc.

fun2fly wrote:

commavia wrote:

enilria wrote:

Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0

Assuming this is true, and not another error like LGA-YYZ, that will, indeed, be quite sad - this is a market AA has operated continuously for nearly five decades. That said, I guess it wouldn't come as too big a surprise - the route has been down to just two daily 737s, and the Puerto Rico economy continues to stagnate. And, obviously, AA is a shadow of its former self in SJU, and in the NYC-Caribbean market in general which it has largely ceded to competitors (especially JetBlue). Still - if true, definitely the end of an era.

Seems like a filing error? UA is running 772's on the route at times from EWR. Too popular not to run?

UA runs the widebodies to SJU mostly for temperature control cargo.

When AA quit JFK-SDQ a few years back, I had a feeling SJU would suffer the same fate. 2 737s? There used to be big massive DC-10/A300/767 on this route.

I am surprised that HPN-MIA was so short lived. In the winter it is a huge market. I guess AA just can't compete against JetBlue. I would not be surprised to see the route be seasonal, but looks like it is gone next winter.

Thanks, always an interesting read.

enilria wrote:

**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0

That's a stunner. I figured they'd at least keep their token presence on that route, if only for NYC-related purposes. I guess it just wasn't worth it with B6 and DL having quite a bit of capacity on the route, not to mention UA at EWR.

enilria wrote:

*AA MIA-HPN AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0

I thought this was kind of an oddball move when it was announced. It doesn't really capture any traffic that couldn't be routed through CLT, except going south to the islands or South America, and I don't think that's what many people are using HPN for. So, you're left fighting for leisure travelers on the HPN-South Florida market, which B6 has had covered for quite a while.

The route's launch coincided with AA ending HPN-PHL. I wonder if they will add anything to replace it again. Perhaps another CLT frequency? If not, I think that opens up a window for another carrier to add some flights/seats into HPN, though I'm not entirely sure how the pax cap there actually works.

Newbiepilot wrote:

I am surprised that HPN-MIA was so short lived. In the winter it is a huge market. I guess AA just can't compete against JetBlue. I would not be surprised to see the route be seasonal, but looks like it is gone next winter.

I think I've seen an interesting paradigm build up over the last decade.

First, FLL was cheaper and AA didn't match at MIA, so FLL got a huge boost in traffic at MIA's expense, but MIA still had very high yields.
Then, AA started to match FLL at MIA and yields at MIA started to come down to FLL levels in markets where there was an LCC to FLL.
Now, it appears to me for domestic leisure travelers that FLL is now actually the preferred airport, or at least not really considered an inconvenient cheap alternate. For example, it now appears that even when FLL and MIA are equally priced that FLL gets the bulk of the low fare leisure traffic. If I'm right that is a real case study as I don't think that has ever happened before in U.S. post-deregulation aviation where the alternate became the primary.

enilria wrote:

AC CVG-YYZ MAY 3>2

Probably in response to DL adding another daily flight on CVG-YYZ, 5x/day seemed like a little much capacity for CVG-YYZ, but we will have to see if AC keeps its current 3x/day, or drops down to 2x/day permanently.

AA LAX-MCO 2>3 ; interesting. A321?

*B6 BOS-LAX NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
Probably a response to AA going 5x daily

In the last 3 weeks SEA-ORD has picked of 7 flights:

DL: 3
UA: 2 (last week)
AA: 2 (this week)

AS, next week?

globalcabotage wrote:

In the last 3 weeks SEA-ORD has picked of 7 flights:

DL: 3
UA: 2 (last week)
AA: 2 (this week)

AS, next week?

The UA and AA adds are simply in response to DL. The yields on the route are going to tank and if AS is smart - and they are - they won't get involved, at least not until one of the big 3 blinks. At this point, DL is still playing from behind in the market, as both UA and AA at ORD easily dwarf anything DL has at SEA where even that competes with AS already, and arguably with WN to MDW.

usairways85 wrote:

AA PHL-IAH 3>2. All I can think of is that when oil tanked business/oil traffic between these two cities plummeted.

Also, UA flies the route, with 3x daily and likely performs better on the route.

F9 also in the route and this time year-round and daily, might have added stress to AA's yields. For AA, it overflies CLT and ORD, and in those scenarios, AA caves in at PHL, similar to PHL-DEN that is running on lower frequency.

enilria wrote:

FAQ

AA JFK-SFO AUG 6>5 SEP 7>5
Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0

*B6 BOS-LAX NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4

Thank you as always, enilria.

JFK-SFO at 5x - is this a normal seasonal adjustment? B6 runs this 6x and DL 7x. Interesting to see the difference compared to JFK-LAX, where AA dominates (from a frequency perspective).

Crazy to see JFK-SJU go away. This route once printed money for AA.

B6 increasing BOS-LAX is no surprise. Mint has been received very well in the market. Interestingly, according to the B6 CEO, economy yields in Mint markets tend to go up when frequency is increased, largely because of B6's ability to capture more close-in bookings due to increased flight options.

enilria wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

I am surprised that HPN-MIA was so short lived. In the winter it is a huge market. I guess AA just can't compete against JetBlue. I would not be surprised to see the route be seasonal, but looks like it is gone next winter.

I think I've seen an interesting paradigm build up over the last decade.

First, FLL was cheaper and AA didn't match at MIA, so FLL got a huge boost in traffic at MIA's expense, but MIA still had very high yields.
Then, AA started to match FLL at MIA and yields at MIA started to come down to FLL levels in markets where there was an LCC to FLL.
Now, it appears to me for domestic leisure travelers that FLL is now actually the preferred airport, or at least not really considered an inconvenient cheap alternate. For example, it now appears that even when FLL and MIA are equally priced that FLL gets the bulk of the low fare leisure traffic. If I'm right that is a real case study as I don't think that has ever happened before in U.S. post-deregulation aviation where the alternate became the primary.

AA depends on a certain number of F class seats being sold, and other high fare pax likely flying to MIA and beyond. Perhaps the market wasn't there for that premium, or they use NY's primary airports. B6 can rely on filling economy and has lower costs and longer standing at HPN for Florida. FLL has been a central airport for South Florida, and as certain carriers (Southwest, JetBlue, Spirit) don't even fly to MIA, it's hard to argue that MIA has been more convenient for most to all people flying in/out of South Florida.

Regarding B6, it seems to me that their official schedule only goes until October 28, so changes shown here in November and December, would not be accurate. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

With AA, it seems that most changes shown here are simply rolling forward of existing schedules. I can't speak to all markets, but I don't remember DFW-MSY ever being 9 daily. ORD-MSY has been 2 daily most of this year since AA went all or mostly mainline - a big increase in capacity.

JFK-SJU is being eliminated on American? That is a true shocker, especially since how everyone else can make money on the route (during the winter season, United has even deployed wide-bodies on EWR-SJU). JetBlue is able to fill 200-seat A321s on JFK-SJU.

As for HPN-MIA---that's flown on American Eagle while JetBlue is the only mainline carrier from HPN these days. Better to direct the passengers to LGA or JFK (from JFK, anything from a 737 to a 77W flies JFK-MIA).

msycajun wrote:

Regarding B6, it seems to me that their official schedule only goes until October 28, so changes shown here in November and December, would not be accurate. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

Schedule will be released today through 1/3/2018 today at noon.

enilria wrote:

First, FLL was cheaper and AA didn't match at MIA, so FLL got a huge boost in traffic at MIA's expense, but MIA still had very high yields.
Then, AA started to match FLL at MIA and yields at MIA started to come down to FLL levels in markets where there was an LCC to FLL.
Now, it appears to me for domestic leisure travelers that FLL is now actually the preferred airport, or at least not really considered an inconvenient cheap alternate. For example, it now appears that even when FLL and MIA are equally priced that FLL gets the bulk of the low fare leisure traffic. If I'm right that is a real case study as I don't think that has ever happened before in U.S. post-deregulation aviation where the alternate became the primary.

Doesn't the preference depend upon where people are actually going? Fares being similar, people traveling to Dade County will prefer MIA. People traveling to Broward and Palm Beach Counties will prefer FLL. Roads there are clogged enough that for most people switching airports is a burden.

adamh8297 wrote:

msycajun wrote:

Regarding B6, it seems to me that their official schedule only goes until October 28, so changes shown here in November and December, would not be accurate. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

Schedule will be released today through 1/3/2018 today at noon.

Interesting - so will that be different from what's here, or do they load it into the OAG before putting it on sale?

fun2fly wrote:

UA is running 772's on the route at times from EWR. Too popular not to run?

UA runs the 772 because of a pharma contract, so needs the cargo capacity.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Crazy to see JFK-SJU go away. This route once printed money for AA.

I doubt it printed anything but losses recently just like remainder of the once AA SJU hub.

adamh8297 wrote:

msycajun wrote:

Regarding B6, it seems to me that their official schedule only goes until October 28, so changes shown here in November and December, would not be accurate. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

Schedule will be released today through 1/3/2018 today at noon.

Yep, it's available on jetblue.com now.

Mint is now loaded on all JFK/BOS-SAN and JFK-LAS flights. SEA will probably be covered in the next schedule extension into Spring 2018.

commavia wrote:

fun2fly wrote:

Seems like a filing error? UA is running 772's on the route at times from EWR. Too popular not to run?

Can't compare the two. United has a megahub at EWR and dominates EWR O&D. AA does not enjoy that level of market dominance at JFK, where there is intense competition on the SJU route from Delta and JetBlue, both of which are larger than AA at JFK. In addition, SJU does - honestly - seem a bit out of place with the market niche that AA appears to be working towards in NYC - business-heavy O&D markets, and premium leisure markets for the FFs in those business-heavy O&D markets when they go on vacation. In the context of the Caribbean, there are exceptions, but in general that means, for example, AA flights to ANU, STT, SKB, etc. and no more AUA, MBJ, and maybe SJU, etc.

I agree with all of this but would also add that JFK-SJU no longer serves any connecting purpose. There used to be some decent-sized markets north of, say, RDU that didn't have much MIA service. All of those cities have extensive links to PHL and often CLT as well.

AA DFW-YUL SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2

I don't ever recall AA doing twice daily flights between DFW and YUL in the past. I'm glad to see this since AA has reduced service between MIA and YUL in the last few years.

A lot of late summer frequency increases for AA out of ORD

jetbluefan1 wrote:

adamh8297 wrote:

msycajun wrote:

Regarding B6, it seems to me that their official schedule only goes until October 28, so changes shown here in November and December, would not be accurate. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

Schedule will be released today through 1/3/2018 today at noon.

Yep, it's available on jetblue.com now.

Mint is now loaded on all JFK/BOS-SAN and JFK-LAS flights. SEA will probably be covered in the next schedule extension into Spring 2018.

Looks like BOS-PAP and BOS-BGI will be year round with bare minimum having at least a weekly on these routes.

I'm surprised by AA's recent additions to ROC and BUF. 5x and 6x to ORD respectively puts UA to shame frequency-wise, although UA will still offer more seats between all three cities.

815Oceanic wrote:

I'm surprised by AA's recent additions to ROC and BUF. 5x and 6x to ORD respectively puts UA to shame frequency-wise, although UA will still offer more seats between all three cities.

And that - while I respect enilria's effort week after week - points out a major weakness of this comparison. Routine upgauging gets all sorts of handwringing, too, when people see a frequency decline without checking for seat count or maintained connectivity.

Sad to see HPN-MIA go, but it doesn't surprise me considering HPN is basically owned by B6. However cutting routes like JFK-SJU is the cowards way out, which AA seems to be doing lately. UA is finally starting to surprise me with their performance/routes, so maybe AA once they mature a couple more years and get rid of people like DUI Douggie will finally stop taking the cowards way out.

enilria wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

I am surprised that HPN-MIA was so short lived. In the winter it is a huge market. I guess AA just can't compete against JetBlue. I would not be surprised to see the route be seasonal, but looks like it is gone next winter.

I think I've seen an interesting paradigm build up over the last decade.

First, FLL was cheaper and AA didn't match at MIA, so FLL got a huge boost in traffic at MIA's expense, but MIA still had very high yields.
Then, AA started to match FLL at MIA and yields at MIA started to come down to FLL levels in markets where there was an LCC to FLL.
Now, it appears to me for domestic leisure travelers that FLL is now actually the preferred airport, or at least not really considered an inconvenient cheap alternate. For example, it now appears that even when FLL and MIA are equally priced that FLL gets the bulk of the low fare leisure traffic. If I'm right that is a real case study as I don't think that has ever happened before in U.S. post-deregulation aviation where the alternate became the primary.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that FLL is now the primary. This is the case for domestic LCC traffic, but high-yielding traffic continues to prefer MIA.

FlyUSAir wrote:

Sad to see HPN-MIA go, but it doesn't surprise me considering HPN is basically owned by B6. However cutting routes like JFK-SJU is the cowards way out, which AA seems to be doing lately. UA is finally starting to surprise me with their performance/routes, so maybe AA once they mature a couple more years and get rid of people like DUI Douggie will finally stop taking the cowards way out.

You would rather see AA lose money for the sake of saving face?

It's official JFK-SJU will end.

I would bet AA hasn't made money on this for a while. Given the massive competition, PR economy, and ability to connect via CLT or MIA this seems natural.

That said, you have to wonder if they will use the slot for something else.

OB1504 wrote:

enilria wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

I am surprised that HPN-MIA was so short lived. In the winter it is a huge market. I guess AA just can't compete against JetBlue. I would not be surprised to see the route be seasonal, but looks like it is gone next winter.

I think I've seen an interesting paradigm build up over the last decade.

First, FLL was cheaper and AA didn't match at MIA, so FLL got a huge boost in traffic at MIA's expense, but MIA still had very high yields.
Then, AA started to match FLL at MIA and yields at MIA started to come down to FLL levels in markets where there was an LCC to FLL.
Now, it appears to me for domestic leisure travelers that FLL is now actually the preferred airport, or at least not really considered an inconvenient cheap alternate. For example, it now appears that even when FLL and MIA are equally priced that FLL gets the bulk of the low fare leisure traffic. If I'm right that is a real case study as I don't think that has ever happened before in U.S. post-deregulation aviation where the alternate became the primary.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that FLL is now the primary. This is the case for domestic LCC traffic, but high-yielding traffic continues to prefer MIA.

FlyUSAir wrote:

Sad to see HPN-MIA go, but it doesn't surprise me considering HPN is basically owned by B6. However cutting routes like JFK-SJU is the cowards way out, which AA seems to be doing lately. UA is finally starting to surprise me with their performance/routes, so maybe AA once they mature a couple more years and get rid of people like DUI Douggie will finally stop taking the cowards way out.

You would rather see AA lose money for the sake of saving face?

Not at all, but DUI Douggie and his team are afraid of taking chances/starting up O&D routes that could make them profit, they are reverting back to shuffle everyone through a couple of hubs.

B757capt wrote:

It's official JFK-SJU will end.

I would bet AA hasn't made money on this for a while. Given the massive competition, PR economy, and ability to connect via CLT or MIA this seems natural.

There's a large PR diaspora in NYC. AA doesn't need hub feed.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... o-florida/

Nor would I call nine flights a day NYC-SJU (B6, DL and UA) massive competition. One really has to wonder about cost-competitiveness and consumer willingness to pay for the AA product(s) if AA can't make money on a route like this.

Two small players of note here:

Texas Sky is dropping VCT-AUS and VCT-IAH and replacing it with VCT-DFW and adding new DFW-DRT service. DRT isn't eligible for EAS so this is locally subsidized. The switch of VCT service to more frequent flights to DFW is to try to raise enplanements over the 10/day required to keep AEAS subsidy.

Also, AJ operating FXE-GHB (Ft. Lauderdale Executive to Governor's Harbour, Bahamas) appeared in this report. AJ appears to be Aztec Airways and the aircraft is a Piper Navajo Chieftain. The service appears to already be operating so this is just a new addition to the OAG.

MIflyer12 wrote:

B757capt wrote:

It's official JFK-SJU will end.

I would bet AA hasn't made money on this for a while. Given the massive competition, PR economy, and ability to connect via CLT or MIA this seems natural.

There's a large PR diaspora in NYC. AA doesn't need hub feed.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... o-florida/

Nor would I call nine flights a day NYC-SJU (B6, DL and UA) massive competition. One really has to wonder about cost-competitiveness and consumer willingness to pay for the AA product(s) if AA can't make money on a route like this.

The diaspora in the NE is very price sensitive, I highly doubt anybody makes money on this route. Additionally, considering the economy is in shambles in the island and all the low fare competition I am surprised AA lasted as long on the route.

enilria wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

I am surprised that HPN-MIA was so short lived. In the winter it is a huge market. I guess AA just can't compete against JetBlue. I would not be surprised to see the route be seasonal, but looks like it is gone next winter.

I think I've seen an interesting paradigm build up over the last decade.

First, FLL was cheaper and AA didn't match at MIA, so FLL got a huge boost in traffic at MIA's expense, but MIA still had very high yields.
Then, AA started to match FLL at MIA and yields at MIA started to come down to FLL levels in markets where there was an LCC to FLL.
Now, it appears to me for domestic leisure travelers that FLL is now actually the preferred airport, or at least not really considered an inconvenient cheap alternate. For example, it now appears that even when FLL and MIA are equally priced that FLL gets the bulk of the low fare leisure traffic. If I'm right that is a real case study as I don't think that has ever happened before in U.S. post-deregulation aviation where the alternate became the primary.

This is a compelling point. I think urban economics and urban geography fuel this dynamic. Because of the rapid appreciation of real estate in Dade County and especially on Miami Beach since the year 2000, middle class travelers are far less able to afford the vacation destinations closest to MIA. Very high end European Latin American (and U.S.) money fills up many of the prime residential and hotel real estate on the Beach. But as you go north across the Broward County line, prices do come down a bit for tourists, especially with companies like Airbnb and VRBO changing the market. FLL is far more convenient to those more affordable destinations, and thus you see this phenomenon where for many U.S. domestic travelers, FLL has become the primary.

TW870 wrote:

enilria wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

I am surprised that HPN-MIA was so short lived. In the winter it is a huge market. I guess AA just can't compete against JetBlue. I would not be surprised to see the route be seasonal, but looks like it is gone next winter.

I think I've seen an interesting paradigm build up over the last decade.

First, FLL was cheaper and AA didn't match at MIA, so FLL got a huge boost in traffic at MIA's expense, but MIA still had very high yields.
Then, AA started to match FLL at MIA and yields at MIA started to come down to FLL levels in markets where there was an LCC to FLL.
Now, it appears to me for domestic leisure travelers that FLL is now actually the preferred airport, or at least not really considered an inconvenient cheap alternate. For example, it now appears that even when FLL and MIA are equally priced that FLL gets the bulk of the low fare leisure traffic. If I'm right that is a real case study as I don't think that has ever happened before in U.S. post-deregulation aviation where the alternate became the primary.

This is a compelling point. I think urban economics and urban geography fuel this dynamic. Because of the rapid appreciation of real estate in Dade County and especially on Miami Beach since the year 2000, middle class travelers are far less able to afford the vacation destinations closest to MIA. Very high end European Latin American (and U.S.) money fills up many of the prime residential and hotel real estate on the Beach. But as you go north across the Broward County line, prices do come down a bit for tourists, especially with companies like Airbnb and VRBO changing the market. FLL is far more convenient to those more affordable destinations, and thus you see this phenomenon where for many U.S. domestic travelers, FLL has become the primary.

Westchester county New York and Fairfield County Connecticut are two of the wealthiest counties in the entire United States. I think the problem here is that AA has a higher cost E175 vs JetBlue operating twice daily A320s. The market is there, but AA only has been flying the route for a few months.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

JFK-SFO at 5x - is this a normal seasonal adjustment? B6 runs this 6x and DL 7x. Interesting to see the difference compared to JFK-LAX, where AA dominates (from a frequency perspective).

Historically, 5x daily JFK-SFO for AA is quite typical - that was the schedule for much of the last 15 years. With the transition of the route to the A321T, AA has increased frequency up to as high as 7x daily, but yes, it is quite variable and changes often with seasonal and secular changes in demand. With respect to the comparison to LAX, yes, AA leads on frequency in that market but then AA has always had a stronger (leading) position on that route whereas it's always been much more evenly matched on JFK-SFO with significant competition from United and, more recently, also Delta, JetBlue and to a lesser extent Virgin America. All that said, AA's frequency advantage on JFK-LAX isn't that dramatic - AA is at 13x on peak days this summer, versus 10x each on Delta and JetBlue. And of course if expanded to include the entire NYC market, United is also right up there with 11x EWR-LAX.

msycajun wrote:

With AA, it seems that most changes shown here are simply rolling forward of existing schedules. I can't speak to all markets, but I don't remember DFW-MSY ever being 9 daily. ORD-MSY has been 2 daily most of this year since AA went all or mostly mainline - a big increase in capacity.

I believe AA has, indeed, been at 9x or even 10x daily DFW-MSY in the past - if I remember correctly (could be wrong), the peak was probably around 2005/2006 right after Delta closed the DFW hub when AA added a significant amount of additional capacity on various domestic routes, and in particular to markets in the southeastern U.S. where Delta was historically dominant. As for ORD-MSY - I remember when it was, for quite a long time, 3x daily mainline, including 737s.

Seat1F wrote:

AA DFW-YUL SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2

I don't ever recall AA doing twice daily flights between DFW and YUL in the past. I'm glad to see this since AA has reduced service between MIA and YUL in the last few years.

AA has definitely done 2x daily DFW-YUL in the past - and on mainline, too. AA's peak mainline presence in YUL was probably summer 2001, before 9/11, when AA was not only 2x daily MD80s to DFW, but also 5x daily (including 2x 737s!) to ORD, plus a daily 737 to MIA. This summer, AA's sole mainline at YUL will be 2x daily 737s to MIA - ORD is just a few daily CRJs, DFW is 2x E175 (not a bad ride!) plus a single E175 to CLT, and then it's all RJs (mostly 50-seat) to the northeast - JFK, LGA and PHL.

815Oceanic wrote:

I'm surprised by AA's recent additions to ROC and BUF. 5x and 6x to ORD respectively puts UA to shame frequency-wise, although UA will still offer more seats between all three cities.

And that's typically the general trend with most head-to-head competitive ORD markets - AA seems to often stay relatively competitive on frequency, but with just a few exceptions, United almost always wins on capacity. And it makes sense - ORD is, after all, a significantly larger hub for United than AA. That said, I think the far more important story with regard to ORD-Upstate for AA is that by this summer, finally, be back to almost all 2-class flying to/from BUF, ROC, SYR and ALB. These markets were some of the hardest hit when the F100s were retired, and have been mostly or entirely 50-seat RJs ever since up until very recently. Personally, I'm very happy to see AA finally restoring F to some of the northeast markets - not just in Upstate, but also PVD, MDT, BWI, etc. that were dependent on ERJs until the last few years. Now if only AA could get its act together and at least put CR7s back on ORD-YYZ/YUL, I'd be happier still.

chepos wrote:

The diaspora in the NE is very price sensitive, I highly doubt anybody makes money on this route. Additionally, considering the economy is in shambles in the island and all the low fare competition I am surprised AA lasted as long on the route.

Agree. This gets particular attention and notice because of AA's long history on this route, but I agree that the market's fundamentals and dynamics make it something of an anachronism in the context of AA's modern route network. With the notable exception of PAP, AA has largely exited the Caribbean ethnic/VFR market, at least from outside of South Florida. And it isn't hard to see why. In particular in NYC, where AA faces competitors that are larger and/or lower-cost, the price-sensitivity and resulting yield pressure in these markets make them less hospitable for AA than at their zenith when AA had the market to itself and it was not hard to fill multiple daily A300s.

Glad to see AA slightly increasing ORD! It's tough with the limited gate space and shift to mainline and bigger planes.

SEA-ORD will be a yield turn this fall. As mentioned above, AS is probably smart enough to not join the battle.

phluser wrote:

usairways85 wrote:

AA PHL-IAH 3>2. All I can think of is that when oil tanked business/oil traffic between these two cities plummeted.

Also, UA flies the route, with 3x daily and likely performs better on the route.

UA is 4x, actually, but point made. AA does seem to cave a bit and maintains only a token presence in a few of these situations.

JFK-SJU is a route that I wonder could have been continued by AA if it had the ability to carry belly cargo using an A321. (When the A300s flew to the Caribbean, their belly cargo was often packed.)

aaflyer777 wrote:

*B6 BOS-LAX NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
Probably a response to AA going 5x daily

Yeah, I agree with your analysis. Kinda what I was thinking when I marked it.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Thank you as always, enilria.

Crazy to see JFK-SJU go away. This route once printed money for AA.

Thanks!
Yeah, this marks a real inflection point in AA as the former top dog to the Caribbean from the whole East Coast.

msycajun wrote:

Interesting - so will that be different from what's here, or do they load it into the OAG before putting it on sale?

msycajun wrote:

Regarding B6, it seems to me that their official schedule only goes until October 28, so changes shown here in November and December, would not be accurate. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

It's accurate, where else would it come from if not from B6? Nobody else can file their schedule. It was in OAG before it was on their site.

incitatus wrote:

Doesn't the preference depend upon where people are actually going? Fares being similar, people traveling to Dade County will prefer MIA. People traveling to Broward and Palm Beach Counties will prefer FLL. Roads there are clogged enough that for most people switching airports is a burden.

It also seems to me like the cruise industry has shifted a lot from MIA to FLL which is a huge deal.

MIflyer12 wrote:

And that - while I respect enilria's effort week after week - points out a major weakness of this comparison. Routine upgauging gets all sorts of handwringing, too, when people see a frequency decline without checking for seat count or maintained connectivity.

It's a departure comparison,. not a seat comparison. If it was a seat comparison it would miss departure changes. If it was an equipment change comparison it would be 10000 lines per week. This is the way airlines review it internally, although they have seat based reports as well that are lesser used.

OB1504 wrote:

I wouldn't go so far as to say that FLL is now the primary. This is the case for domestic LCC traffic, but high-yielding traffic continues to prefer MIA.

I actually said "it appears to me for domestic leisure travelers that FLL is now actually the preferred airport", so I guess we agree?

B757capt wrote:

It's official JFK-SJU will end.

Yes, a got a PM from an AA person who confirmed it was removed on purpose. Of course, they could always change their mind!

TW870 wrote:

FLL is far more convenient to those more affordable destinations, and thus you see this phenomenon where for many U.S. domestic travelers, FLL has become the primary.

Again, I don't think we have really seen an alternate succeed like FLL has since deregulation in the U.S. I think you have to go back into the early era of U.S. aviation to find an example.

commavia wrote:

Agree. This gets particular attention and notice because of AA's long history on this route, but I agree that the market's fundamentals and dynamics make it something of an anachronism in the context of AA's modern route network. With the notable exception of PAP, AA has largely exited the Caribbean ethnic/VFR market, at least from outside of South Florida. And it isn't hard to see why. In particular in NYC, where AA faces competitors that are larger and/or lower-cost, the price-sensitivity and resulting yield pressure in these markets make them less hospitable for AA than at their zenith when AA had the market to itself and it was not hard to fill multiple daily A300s.

Well stated, and an amazing turnabout for AA which was unassailable in the Caribbean not that long ago. Makes you wonder if DL had gone through with their aborted plans to push AA in MIA, before they moved the strategy to SEA.

HPRamper wrote:

globalcabotage wrote:

In the last 3 weeks SEA-ORD has picked of 7 flights:

DL: 3
UA: 2 (last week)
AA: 2 (this week)

AS, next week?

The UA and AA adds are simply in response to DL. The yields on the route are going to tank and if AS is smart - and they are - they won't get involved, at least not until one of the big 3 blinks. At this point, DL is still playing from behind in the market, as both UA and AA at ORD easily dwarf anything DL has at SEA where even that competes with AS already, and arguably with WN to MDW.

Agreed. Good commentary IMHO.

enilria wrote:

*NK BWI-RSW JUN 1.0>0.5 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

I'm curious if this is a seasonal cut, or permanent cut. It appears that WN is fare matching and there are some very low fares to this market from BWI just a couple weeks out. Might just take advantage of it.

If it's a perm cut, and if February and March performance was abysmal, I wonder if NK would consider BWI-PGD and avoid WN fare matching, or maybe SRQ but SRQ is apparently a high cost airport? SRQ might be too close to TPA, but AirTran used to fly BWI-SRQ. BWI-PGD would be like F9's PHL-PGD.

enilria wrote:

enilria wrote:

Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0
B6 JFK-SJU OCT 4>5

To me that's a huge shocker to see them out of that. AND YES, it's missing on AA.com I looked to be sure. Looks like B6 already reacted. Didn't AA fly that like 7+ RT at one point?

AA purchased Trans Caribbean and at one time was flying 747s to SJU .. not sure about DC-10s .. but they were sending A300s down there too .. AA has really shrunk the service to the Caribbean from JFK. The JFKSJU service is missing in Sabre too.

I lived in South Florida a few years back, and trust me, even if they had the only non-stops, I avoided Miami totally. No-way was I getting into that mess. I mainly used FLL, but there were times I would also use PBI. PBI was actually my favorite, being a nice little airport, but FLL had more options.