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commavia
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:48 am

BroadwayLimited wrote:
I lived in South Florida a few years back, and trust me, even if they had the only non-stops, I avoided Miami totally. No-way was I getting into that mess. I mainly used FLL, but there were times I would also use PBI. PBI was actually my favorite, being a nice little airport, but FLL had more options.


And there are millions of others who unquestionably feel the same way. But then, of course, MIA is the only megahub in South Florida - and for a reason. While plenty of people prefer to fly into, and vacation/live nearer to, FLL or PBI, MIA is still the primary economic draw in the region, and still the destination for much of the massive amount of international/ethnic traffic. For these reasons, MIA generates a level of premium demand that neither FLL nor PBI can ever come close to replicating. It is notable that for many peoples' expressed preference for FLL - both the airport, and the destination - AA's growth at MIA has seemed largely unaffected by the enormous growth in the last two decades at the airport up the road.
 
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BroadwayLimited
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:21 am

commavia wrote:

And there are millions of others who unquestionably feel the same way. But then, of course, MIA is the only megahub in South Florida - and for a reason. While plenty of people prefer to fly into, and vacation/live nearer to, FLL or PBI, MIA is still the primary economic draw in the region, and still the destination for much of the massive amount of international/ethnic traffic. For these reasons, MIA generates a level of premium demand that neither FLL nor PBI can ever come close to replicating. It is notable that for many peoples' expressed preference for FLL - both the airport, and the destination - AA's growth at MIA has seemed largely unaffected by the enormous growth in the last two decades at the airport up the road.


TOTALLY agree with what you are saying. MIA is by all means the US airport where North does meet South. However, for locals, different story. Almost all my co-workers and people in my neighborhood used FLL or PBI. Yes some locals used MIA, but trust me, it was the exception. (and this was living on the Dade/Broward line).
Signed up for Delta and Eastern Frequent Flyer Programs August 30, 1981.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:25 am

enilria wrote:
commavia wrote:
Agree. This gets particular attention and notice because of AA's long history on this route, but I agree that the market's fundamentals and dynamics make it something of an anachronism in the context of AA's modern route network. With the notable exception of PAP, AA has largely exited the Caribbean ethnic/VFR market, at least from outside of South Florida. And it isn't hard to see why. In particular in NYC, where AA faces competitors that are larger and/or lower-cost, the price-sensitivity and resulting yield pressure in these markets make them less hospitable for AA than at their zenith when AA had the market to itself and it was not hard to fill multiple daily A300s.

Well stated, and an amazing turnabout for AA which was unassailable in the Caribbean not that long ago. Makes you wonder if DL had gone through with their aborted plans to push AA in MIA, before they moved the strategy to SEA.


This is not a sensible hypothetical IMO. The growth of MIA at the expense of SJU is one of the reasons AA no longer needs JFK-SJU. "The Caribbean," where AA remains the top dog, is much more than bulky VFR markets from the northeast.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:50 am

enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0
B6 JFK-SJU OCT 4>5

To me that's a huge shocker to see them out of that. AND YES, it's missing on AA.com I looked to be sure. Looks like B6 already reacted. Didn't AA fly that like 7+ RT at one point?


Yes surprising but the economy is in the tanks from what I've read and can see why it could be cut. IF there not able to garner much more then there connection flights from CLT or MIA I suppose there are better places for the planes. I'm still surprised a few trips a day couldn't work.
 
TransGlobalGold
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:59 am

grbauc wrote:
enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0
B6 JFK-SJU OCT 4>5

To me that's a huge shocker to see them out of that. AND YES, it's missing on AA.com I looked to be sure. Looks like B6 already reacted. Didn't AA fly that like 7+ RT at one point?


Yes surprising but the economy is in the tanks from what I've read and can see why it could be cut. IF there not able to garner much more then there connection flights from CLT or MIA I suppose there are better places for the planes. I'm still surprised a few trips a day couldn't work.


Puerto Rico is in economic chaos right now. Regardless, B6 owns it now.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:01 am

commavia wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
JFK-SFO at 5x - is this a normal seasonal adjustment? B6 runs this 6x and DL 7x. Interesting to see the difference compared to JFK-LAX, where AA dominates (from a frequency perspective).


All that said, AA's frequency advantage on JFK-LAX isn't that dramatic - AA is at 13x on peak days this summer, versus 10x each on Delta and JetBlue. And of course if expanded to include the entire NYC market, United is also right up there with 11x EWR-LAX.

Just taking a look at Nov 20th.

AA is at 13 a day
B6 is up to 11 a day
DL is down to 9 a day
UA is at 13 a day
VX/AS is at 6 a day from JFK and 4 a day from EWR.

Just for my personal travel, I still find AA to offer the best schedule and give very good upgrade chances. Anecdotally though, it seems like the load factor isn't great.

Not sure how much more B6 can grow at LAX, since they will be at 11 a day from JFK, 4 a day from BOS, a 2 day from FLL and the 2 flights to MCO and BUF. How many more mint flights could they add?
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:05 am

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
commavia wrote:
Agree. This gets particular attention and notice because of AA's long history on this route, but I agree that the market's fundamentals and dynamics make it something of an anachronism in the context of AA's modern route network. With the notable exception of PAP, AA has largely exited the Caribbean ethnic/VFR market, at least from outside of South Florida. And it isn't hard to see why. In particular in NYC, where AA faces competitors that are larger and/or lower-cost, the price-sensitivity and resulting yield pressure in these markets make them less hospitable for AA than at their zenith when AA had the market to itself and it was not hard to fill multiple daily A300s.

Well stated, and an amazing turnabout for AA which was unassailable in the Caribbean not that long ago. Makes you wonder if DL had gone through with their aborted plans to push AA in MIA, before they moved the strategy to SEA.


This is not a sensible hypothetical IMO. The growth of MIA at the expense of SJU is one of the reasons AA no longer needs JFK-SJU. "The Caribbean," where AA remains the top dog, is much more than bulky VFR markets from the northeast.
BroadwayLimited wrote:
commavia wrote:

And there are millions of others who unquestionably feel the same way. But then, of course, MIA is the only megahub in South Florida - and for a reason. While plenty of people prefer to fly into, and vacation/live nearer to, FLL or PBI, MIA is still the primary economic draw in the region, and still the destination for much of the massive amount of international/ethnic traffic. For these reasons, MIA generates a level of premium demand that neither FLL nor PBI can ever come close to replicating. It is notable that for many peoples' expressed preference for FLL - both the airport, and the destination - AA's growth at MIA has seemed largely unaffected by the enormous growth in the last two decades at the airport up the road.


TOTALLY agree with what you are saying. MIA is by all means the US airport where North does meet South. However, for locals, different story. Almost all my co-workers and people in my neighborhood used FLL or PBI. Yes some locals used MIA, but trust me, it was the exception. (and this was living on the Dade/Broward line).


(Sorry, I remain confused by the quoting system on the new A.net layout.)

Re AA in the Caribbean - I agree it remains the "top dog" carrier, but this status is increasingly reliant on MIA, and potentially service from CLT, PHL, ORD, or DFW. Meanwhile, B6 serves most Caribbean markets from both FLL and JFK, and perhaps from BOS and MCO. As mentioned above, BOS-PAP appears to be going year-round for B6.

As for FLL - I'm a New Yorker, and many of my friends travel to "Miami" very often. By a significant margin, they fly into FLL. As do I, when I head down to South Florida maybe once or twice a year. MIA and FLL are largely interchangeable in terms of convenience for those heading to the area. And I would argue that FLL's catchment is much more significant than MIA's - being 20 miles closer to large towns like Pompano Beach or Boca Raton or even Palm Beach can make a huge difference in attracting O&D traffic to and from the area.
 
shaneam12
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:09 am

If I recall correctly, the Spirit BWI-RSW flight became seasonal and will be back in early September.
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:10 am

FlyUSAir wrote:
OB1504 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think I've seen an interesting paradigm build up over the last decade.

First, FLL was cheaper and AA didn't match at MIA, so FLL got a huge boost in traffic at MIA's expense, but MIA still had very high yields.
Then, AA started to match FLL at MIA and yields at MIA started to come down to FLL levels in markets where there was an LCC to FLL.
Now, it appears to me for domestic leisure travelers that FLL is now actually the preferred airport, or at least not really considered an inconvenient cheap alternate. For example, it now appears that even when FLL and MIA are equally priced that FLL gets the bulk of the low fare leisure traffic. If I'm right that is a real case study as I don't think that has ever happened before in U.S. post-deregulation aviation where the alternate became the primary.


I wouldn't go so far as to say that FLL is now the primary. This is the case for domestic LCC traffic, but high-yielding traffic continues to prefer MIA.

FlyUSAir wrote:
Sad to see HPN-MIA go, but it doesn't surprise me considering HPN is basically owned by B6. However cutting routes like JFK-SJU is the cowards way out, which AA seems to be doing lately. UA is finally starting to surprise me with their performance/routes, so maybe AA once they mature a couple more years and get rid of people like DUI Douggie will finally stop taking the cowards way out.


You would rather see AA lose money for the sake of saving face?


Not at all, but DUI Douggie and his team are afraid of taking chances/starting up O&D routes that could make them profit, they are reverting back to shuffle everyone through a couple of hubs.


The continued use of DUI Doug after all these years is ridiculous. Give it a break many people make mistakes in life. AA is not adverse to taking chances just not the chances you want.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:17 am

tphuang wrote:
commavia wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
JFK-SFO at 5x - is this a normal seasonal adjustment? B6 runs this 6x and DL 7x. Interesting to see the difference compared to JFK-LAX, where AA dominates (from a frequency perspective).


All that said, AA's frequency advantage on JFK-LAX isn't that dramatic - AA is at 13x on peak days this summer, versus 10x each on Delta and JetBlue. And of course if expanded to include the entire NYC market, United is also right up there with 11x EWR-LAX.

Just taking a look at Nov 20th.

AA is at 13 a day
B6 is up to 11 a day
DL is down to 9 a day
UA is at 13 a day
VX/AS is at 6 a day from JFK and 4 a day from EWR.

Just for my personal travel, I still find AA to offer the best schedule and give very good upgrade chances. Anecdotally though, it seems like the load factor isn't great.

Not sure how much more B6 can grow at LAX, since they will be at 11 a day from JFK, 4 a day from BOS, a 2 day from FLL and the 2 flights to MCO and BUF. How many more mint flights could they add?


That's a lot of capacity. I'm surprised B6's 11th JFK-LAX frequency wasn't captured in the OAG update. This is a record for B6. (And maybe even the 13th AA frequency?)

B6 is pretty maxed out at LAX at its new home in T5. 2 gates, as well as access to some CUTE gates, as I understand. Don't forget B6 has rights to 2x LAX-MEX flights beginning next year. With 11x to JFK, 4x to BOS, 2x to FLL (honestly I expect this to go to 3x), and 1x each to MCO and BUF, B6 will have a very lean LAX operation in the near term.
 
crownvic
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:32 am

jaybird wrote:
enilria wrote:
enilria wrote:
Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0
B6 JFK-SJU OCT 4>5

To me that's a huge shocker to see them out of that. AND YES, it's missing on AA.com I looked to be sure. Looks like B6 already reacted. Didn't AA fly that like 7+ RT at one point?


AA purchased Trans Caribbean and at one time was flying 747s to SJU .. not sure about DC-10s .. but they were sending A300s down there too .. AA has really shrunk the service to the Caribbean from JFK. The JFKSJU service is missing in Sabre too.


While I cannot link to a particular schedule, this is indicative of a route that has seen massive changes (like so many other routes). JFK-SJU back in the 70s had AA DC-10s and 747s going out one after another. This was in addition to Eastern's L1011s/747s and Pan Am's 747s. Between American, Eastern and Pan Am, it was hourly wide bodies going all all day and into the evening. Looking at a mod 70s OAG on this route, was rather impressive. It is all part of the "Changing of the Guard" in commercial aviation today as airlines like jetBlue, Spirit, Frontier and Southwest get a bigger piece of the pie.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:59 am

Shocking to me that AA will cede JFK-SJU completely and leave it to B6 and DL. Didn't see that coming back in the day.
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:48 am

crownvic wrote:
jaybird wrote:
enilria wrote:
To me that's a huge shocker to see them out of that. AND YES, it's missing on AA.com I looked to be sure. Looks like B6 already reacted. Didn't AA fly that like 7+ RT at one point?


AA purchased Trans Caribbean and at one time was flying 747s to SJU .. not sure about DC-10s .. but they were sending A300s down there too .. AA has really shrunk the service to the Caribbean from JFK. The JFKSJU service is missing in Sabre too.


While I cannot link to a particular schedule, this is indicative of a route that has seen massive changes (like so many other routes). JFK-SJU back in the 70s had AA DC-10s and 747s going out one after another. This was in addition to Eastern's L1011s/747s and Pan Am's 747s. Between American, Eastern and Pan Am, it was hourly wide bodies going all all day and into the evening. Looking at a mod 70s OAG on this route, was rather impressive. It is all part of the "Changing of the Guard" in commercial aviation today as airlines like jetBlue, Spirit, Frontier and Southwest get a bigger piece of the pie.


Kinda but SJU roll and importance to AA is a lot different then back then. Americans Vacation habits, traffic flows, and now we have more AA choices CLT MIA to go through. I never hear of people going to Puerto Rico for vacations. Its economy has been in the dumps. Not Nearly on the same scale but I use to Use the LAS hub for HP (miss the club agents) of HP over the PHX hub. I was flying 2 trips weekly or more and favored the LAS hub and occasionally I have to go to Vegas and Seeing all of the US gone its telling. When US did pull the hub I'm surprised they didn't try for a small focus city.
 
klwright69
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:00 am

Wow, AA leaving JFK-SJU demonstrates a big shift in the NYC market. Although UA has the 777 on EWR-SJU, they still fill up the seats. But who knows what the fares are like? AA can't make SJU work, yet UA can't make PAP work from EWR. What an irony. Thanks for this thread enliria.

In 1995 I flew from SJU to EWR on CO. I remember when CO started the route. There was a TW 747 going to STL next to my flight. Changing market conditions.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:00 pm

phluser wrote:
enilria wrote:
*NK BWI-RSW JUN 1.0>0.5 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0


I'm curious if this is a seasonal cut, or permanent cut. It appears that WN is fare matching and there are some very low fares to this market from BWI just a couple weeks out. Might just take advantage of it.

If it's a perm cut, and if February and March performance was abysmal, I wonder if NK would consider BWI-PGD and avoid WN fare matching, or maybe SRQ but SRQ is apparently a high cost airport? SRQ might be too close to TPA, but AirTran used to fly BWI-SRQ. BWI-PGD would be like F9's PHL-PGD.

I think it is now seasonal, but they obviously had planned to fly it in Summer.
grbauc wrote:
Yes surprising but the economy is in the tanks from what I've read and can see why it could be cut.
TransGlobalGold wrote:
Puerto Rico is in economic chaos right now. Regardless, B6 owns it now.

The economy is bad, but a) it does not seem to have impacted the tourist market and b) MCO is pretty heavily non-leisure from SJU (hard to imagine I just said an MCO market is heavily non-leisure) and it seems to be growing. Keep in mind, that SJU has seen a huge exodus of population to the mainland due to the economy which actually increases air travel as people visit their families.
jetbluefan1 wrote:
As do I, when I head down to South Florida maybe once or twice a year. MIA and FLL are largely interchangeable in terms of convenience for those heading to the area. And I would argue that FLL's catchment is much more significant than MIA's - being 20 miles closer to large towns like Pompano Beach or Boca Raton or even Palm Beach can make a huge difference in attracting O&D traffic to and from the area.

Here's another crazy theory...Is it possible another smaller reason why FLL has become more viable is that flying into MIA and driving to EYW has become less and less viable? First, you can fly more easily directly into EYW and secondly the drive from MIA keeps getting worse and a tourist won't want to risk being stuck in traffic for 2 hours and missing a flight.
 
commavia
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:36 pm

BroadwayLimited wrote:
TOTALLY agree with what you are saying. MIA is by all means the US airport where North does meet South. However, for locals, different story. Almost all my co-workers and people in my neighborhood used FLL or PBI. Yes some locals used MIA, but trust me, it was the exception. (and this was living on the Dade/Broward line).

jetbluefan1 wrote:
As for FLL - I'm a New Yorker, and many of my friends travel to "Miami" very often. By a significant margin, they fly into FLL. As do I, when I head down to South Florida maybe once or twice a year. MIA and FLL are largely interchangeable in terms of convenience for those heading to the area. And I would argue that FLL's catchment is much more significant than MIA's - being 20 miles closer to large towns like Pompano Beach or Boca Raton or even Palm Beach can make a huge difference in attracting O&D traffic to and from the area.


Indeed, but again, it very much depends on the "neighborhood" and "locals" in question. There are clearly lots of "locals" - to say nothing of visitors - that consciously and intentionally choose to fly in and out of MIA vs FLL. As said, though - there is definitely no question that a significant and unique market demand exists for FLL, just as is the case for MIA.

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Re AA in the Caribbean - I agree it remains the "top dog" carrier, but this status is increasingly reliant on MIA, and potentially service from CLT, PHL, ORD, or DFW. Meanwhile, B6 serves most Caribbean markets from both FLL and JFK, and perhaps from BOS and MCO.


Indeed. AA is clearly laser-focused on MIA, and AA has pretty deftly transitioned in the last decade from the critical mass of its Caribbean presence being a mix of JFK, MIA and SJU to a near-total reliance on MIA. All that said, seeing what AA has managed to accomplish in MIA, coupled with what has happened to the SJU/Puerto Rico market in that time, I think it's hard to argue that this was probably a smart move. As for JetBlue, it is certainly true that going back to the period after deregulation, there has pretty much always been a major "second carrier" competitive force in the U.S.-Caribbean market after long-dominant AA. At one point that "second carrier" was arguably Eastern or Pan Am. By the late 1990s and into the early 2000s, it was looking like TWA. And then TWA went bankrupt, and in the immediate aftermath AA was at its absolute zenith in the Caribbean - virtually unchallenged by any serious peer competitor. And then JetBlue came along. JetBlue is now clearly #2 in the Caribbean.

grbauc wrote:
Kinda but SJU roll and importance to AA is a lot different then back then. Americans Vacation habits, traffic flows, and now we have more AA choices CLT MIA to go through. I never hear of people going to Puerto Rico for vacations. Its economy has been in the dumps.


Exactly.
 
Seat1F
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:13 pm

commavia wrote:
Seat1F wrote:
AA DFW-YUL SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2

I don't ever recall AA doing twice daily flights between DFW and YUL in the past. I'm glad to see this since AA has reduced service between MIA and YUL in the last few years.


AA has definitely done 2x daily DFW-YUL in the past - and on mainline, too. AA's peak mainline presence in YUL was probably summer 2001, before 9/11, when AA was not only 2x daily MD80s to DFW, but also 5x daily (including 2x 737s!) to ORD, plus a daily 737 to MIA. This summer, AA's sole mainline at YUL will be 2x daily 737s to MIA - ORD is just a few daily CRJs, DFW is 2x E175 (not a bad ride!) plus a single E175 to CLT, and then it's all RJs (mostly 50-seat) to the northeast - JFK, LGA and PHL.


Thanks for that. I had no idea. I have to say that i'm really pleased they will go 2 x daily from DFW to YUL. Looks like the added flight will be a noon-ish departure from DFW.
 
TransGlobalGold
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:15 pm

enilria wrote:
phluser wrote:
enilria wrote:
*NK BWI-RSW JUN 1.0>0.5 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0


I'm curious if this is a seasonal cut, or permanent cut. It appears that WN is fare matching and there are some very low fares to this market from BWI just a couple weeks out. Might just take advantage of it.

If it's a perm cut, and if February and March performance was abysmal, I wonder if NK would consider BWI-PGD and avoid WN fare matching, or maybe SRQ but SRQ is apparently a high cost airport? SRQ might be too close to TPA, but AirTran used to fly BWI-SRQ. BWI-PGD would be like F9's PHL-PGD.

I think it is now seasonal, but they obviously had planned to fly it in Summer.
grbauc wrote:
Yes surprising but the economy is in the tanks from what I've read and can see why it could be cut.
TransGlobalGold wrote:
Puerto Rico is in economic chaos right now. Regardless, B6 owns it now.

The economy is bad, but a) it does not seem to have impacted the tourist market and b) MCO is pretty heavily non-leisure from SJU (hard to imagine I just said an MCO market is heavily non-leisure) and it seems to be growing. Keep in mind, that SJU has seen a huge exodus of population to the mainland due to the economy which actually increases air travel as people visit their families.
jetbluefan1 wrote:
As do I, when I head down to South Florida maybe once or twice a year. MIA and FLL are largely interchangeable in terms of convenience for those heading to the area. And I would argue that FLL's catchment is much more significant than MIA's - being 20 miles closer to large towns like Pompano Beach or Boca Raton or even Palm Beach can make a huge difference in attracting O&D traffic to and from the area.

Here's another crazy theory...Is it possible another smaller reason why FLL has become more viable is that flying into MIA and driving to EYW has become less and less viable? First, you can fly more easily directly into EYW and secondly the drive from MIA keeps getting worse and a tourist won't want to risk being stuck in traffic for 2 hours and missing a flight.


My best friend is from P.R. He will tell you quite differently. The tourism market is not putting money in the citizens pockets.
 
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United787
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:44 pm

enilria wrote:
Again, I don't think we have really seen an alternate succeed like FLL has since deregulation in the U.S.


What MDW, it came back from the dead and has been maxed out for years?

enilria wrote:
The UA and AA adds are simply in response to DL. The yields on the route are going to tank and if AS is smart - and they are - they won't get involved, at least not until one of the big 3 blinks.


For ORD-SEA, DL won't blink since they have been putting so much into making SEA work. I think if anyone blinks, it is AA. They have relied on AS for this route before, they would be happy to do it again.
 
jbs2886
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:59 pm

United787 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Again, I don't think we have really seen an alternate succeed like FLL has since deregulation in the U.S.


What MDW, it came back from the dead and has been maxed out for years?

enilria wrote:
The UA and AA adds are simply in response to DL. The yields on the route are going to tank and if AS is smart - and they are - they won't get involved, at least not until one of the big 3 blinks.


For ORD-SEA, DL won't blink since they have been putting so much into making SEA work. I think if anyone blinks, it is AA. They have relied on AS for this route before, they would be happy to do it again.


AA can't rely on AS because they can't codeshare on a hub-to-hub route.
 
commavia
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Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:13 pm

United787 wrote:
I think if anyone blinks, it is AA. They have relied on AS for this route before, they would be happy to do it again.


I don't agree with that conclusion.

If I remember correctly, AA had about the same - or possibly even more - frequency on ORD-SEA last summer than United. AA's service on this route is and always has been highly seasonal - around 3x daily in winter, up to 5-6x daily in peak summer. I can't imagine why that would change dramatically going forward, regardless of Delta's entry or the state of the Alaska codeshare (and on that note, someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think AA has codeshared on Alaska's ORD-SEA flights in years, if ever).
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:32 pm

commavia wrote:
If I remember correctly, AA had about the same - or possibly even more - frequency on ORD-SEA last summer than United.

Both flew 6X during the week. UA flew 5 on Saturdays. UA flew 739s vs AA's 738s so UA did end up with more capacity by about 12% on weekdays.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:41 pm

For those super suprised about AA JFK-SJU here is some background:

LTM Load Factor NYC-SJU (FY2016):
UA - 91%
B6 - 83%
DL - 79%
AA - 76%

Average Fare (Non-stop)
UA - $178
B6 - $165
DL - $172
AA - $162

So just assuming that all passengers are local, (they aren't)...
Passenger Rev per seat:
UA - $162
B6 - $137
DL - $136
AA - $123

AA was doing terribly in the market vs the competition and likely was bleeding some pretty significant cash.
 
AMALH747430
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:00 pm

It is amazing how much things have changed in ten years. I took a vacation to Puerto Rico back in 2006. AA still had their SJU hub with 757s and A300s serving mainland destinations and ATR 72s serving just about every landing strip in the Caribbean. It seemed like every time I went down to the lobby (we stayed at the Caribe Hilton) I saw an AA crew either checking in or checking out. I overheard ppl in the restaurant talking about which one of the numerous AA flights they were taking back to JFK. That's what a declining local economy and a seismic shift in the airline industry will do.

Side note: that trip was also the first time I saw DL's "new" (at the time) Richard Tyler uniforms.
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:17 pm

[color=#FFFF40]For ORD-SEA, DL won't blink since they have been putting so much into making SEA work. I think if anyone blinks, it is AA. They have relied on AS for this route before, they would be happy to do it again.
[/quote]

I'm not sure they can has its a Hub to Hub route and AS/VS merger requirements were they were to drop those code shares. I'm sure that's how it read..
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:19 pm

Nice to see *A carriers like AV and AI expanding at IAD. Interesting to see a third BA flight to LAX, how are the loads there?
2020: AMS | ATL | BRU | DAL | DEN | DFW | EWR | FRA | GUA | IAH | LAX | LIM | MCO | MUC | ORD | PTY | SAL | SCL | SFO | TPA | TXL
 
afcjets
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:05 pm

jaybird wrote:
AA purchased Trans Caribbean and at one time was flying 747s to SJU .. not sure about DC-10s .. but they were sending A300s down there too .. AA has really shrunk the service to the Caribbean from JFK. The JFKSJU service is missing in Sabre too.


727LOVER wrote:
There used to be big massive DC-10/A300/767 on this route.


Yup, the DC10s were also flown on that route. It's hard to believe SJU was once a hub for AA and they get rid of a flight to another hub on a route they have been flying for over 40 years. Not to mention New York is sorta a big city.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:05 am

Rdh3e wrote:
For those super suprised about AA JFK-SJU here is some background:

LTM Load Factor NYC-SJU (FY2016):
UA - 91%
B6 - 83%
DL - 79%
AA - 76%

Average Fare (Non-stop)
UA - $178
B6 - $165
DL - $172
AA - $162

So just assuming that all passengers are local, (they aren't)...
Passenger Rev per seat:
UA - $162
B6 - $137
DL - $136
AA - $123

AA was doing terribly in the market vs the competition and likely was bleeding some pretty significant cash.


Very interesting data, thank you for sharing. I'm actually shocked the average fare is that low. Flights from NYC to most destinations in FL are about 2/3 the distance, yet command equal or higher average fares.

Where was this data obtained from, if I may ask? The BLS reports (https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report) only cover markets in the 50 states and DC.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:42 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Where was this data obtained from, if I may ask? The BLS reports (https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report) only cover markets in the 50 states and DC.

The full dataset that report is drawn from has all US points. You can pay for a subscription that gives you a user interface and the restricted data, but Puerto Rico is part of the unrestricted file.

https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_Select ... n%20Survey
 
ckfred
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:54 pm

Interesting that while AA drops JFK-SJU, it keeps ORD-SJU. But, AA's only competition out of ORD is UA. Although, AA only has 1 R/T, while UA has 3 R/T.
 
phluser
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:57 pm

ckfred wrote:
Interesting that while AA drops JFK-SJU, it keeps ORD-SJU. But, AA's only competition out of ORD is UA. Although, AA only has 1 R/T, while UA has 3 R/T.


Also, ORD is more a traditional mid-continental hub for AA, while at LGA/JFK, AA is limited on slots and there is an opportunity cost for every slot pair.
 
drdisque
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:31 pm

UA drops down to 1 R/T on ORD-SJU during the summer and fall and is 2x during the early winter. It's only 3x for the peak late winter/early spring.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:52 pm

drdisque wrote:
UA drops down to 1 R/T on ORD-SJU during the summer and fall and is 2x during the early winter. It's only 3x for the peak late winter/early spring.


plus B6 dropped ORD-SJU in January...
 
Wingtips56
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:21 pm

AA LAX-SMF JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4


Pardon me if I missed a post somewhere, but one of the remaining flights is going mainline May 5 with the A319. It will be 1X-319, 1X-E175, 2X-CRJ7. So it's only a minor reduction in total seats. The A319 is the first one out of SMF in the morning and the last one back. First Class available on all four trips.

Unless I've forgotten something, this is the first AA intra-California mainline flight for SMF since dropping the DFW-ONT-SMF and DFW-SNA-SMF tags back in the 1990's. Prior SMF-LAX was operated by AA for a while after the AirCal merger in 1987, but was dropped within a couple of years; I forget exactly when. The ONT and SNA trips were reduced to the single tags for a few years more: SNA partly for lack of RON space for the 757 at SNA.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:50 am

I use to take HP SNA TO SMF. WN chased them out. I don't remember AA ont to smf. I'd love that option now. Has things progress I hope to see a small amount of PTP flying on from the big 3.
 
Wingtips56
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Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:26 am

Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:32 am

grbauc wrote:
I use to take HP SNA TO SMF. WN chased them out. I don't remember AA ont to smf. I'd love that option now. Has things progress I hope to see a small amount of PTP flying on from the big 3.

At the time of the OC/AA merger, and for a while after that, there were 4X SMF-ONT (731/732), 5X SMF-SNA (733, B146), 3 or 4X SMF-LAX (731/732, B146). The 737-100s and -200s post-Patco strike were taken down to 100 seats (from 108 or 119), and ONT/SNA were always full, with very few no-shows. If booked to 103, we'd often take 3 oversales/bumps. Eventually, AA put F class in the 733 and the 146 (which was ridiculous). But the markets faded as AA dwindled down everything OC brought to the party until only SNA-ORD was left. That's when HP and then WN came in. As I said, just 1X each ONT/SNA-SMF hung on for a while, into the early '90s.
The OC fleet was redeployed to the SJC hub for a while with new markets, but that hub didn't pan out.

But AA is now upgauging one SMF-LAX trip in May to mainline (A319), which hopefully is a sign of more to come. I don't know if they or anyone else would try to go against the WN juggernaut with more markets (ONT, SNA, BUR). We'll have to wait and see how AS does, and see if B6 can hang in there with LGB-Nor Cal.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:42 pm

Wingtips56 wrote:
Unless I've forgotten something, this is the first AA intra-California mainline flight for SMF since dropping the DFW-ONT-SMF and DFW-SNA-SMF tags back in the 1990's. Prior SMF-LAX was operated by AA for a while after the AirCal merger in 1987, but was dropped within a couple of years; I forget exactly when. The ONT and SNA trips were reduced to the single tags for a few years more: SNA partly for lack of RON space for the 757 at SNA.

Wingtips56 wrote:
At the time of the OC/AA merger, and for a while after that, there were 4X SMF-ONT (731/732), 5X SMF-SNA (733, B146), 3 or 4X SMF-LAX (731/732, B146). The 737-100s and -200s post-Patco strike were taken down to 100 seats (from 108 or 119), and ONT/SNA were always full, with very few no-shows. If booked to 103, we'd often take 3 oversales/bumps. Eventually, AA put F class in the 733 and the 146 (which was ridiculous). But the markets faded as AA dwindled down everything OC brought to the party until only SNA-ORD was left. That's when HP and then WN came in. As I said, just 1X each ONT/SNA-SMF hung on for a while, into the early '90s.
The OC fleet was redeployed to the SJC hub for a while with new markets, but that hub didn't pan out.


Other than LAX-SFO, I believe the last intra-California markets to see AA mainline were all the former Reno markets that ran with MD80s from the merger in 1999 until being transitioned to Eagle or being cut entirely in the early 2000s. Those would be, if I remember correctly, LAX-SJC, LAX-OAK, SJC-SAN, SJC-SNA and SFO-SNA.

Wingtips56 wrote:
But AA is now upgauging one SMF-LAX trip in May to mainline (A319), which hopefully is a sign of more to come. I don't know if they or anyone else would try to go against the WN juggernaut with more markets (ONT, SNA, BUR). We'll have to wait and see how AS does, and see if B6 can hang in there with LGB-Nor Cal.


It is indeed good to see AA mainline on LAX-SMF. I'm not sure it's a sign of too much else, though. As AA introduces (or reintroduces) mainline on some of the LAX Eagle routes - like SMF and DEN - this summer, there are a few other markets that plausibly seem like candidates for upgauging of some of their daily frequencies - SJC, IAH and PDX come to mind, and maybe SLC.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:12 pm

commavia wrote:
Other than LAX-SFO, I believe the last intra-California markets to see AA mainline were all the former Reno markets that ran with MD80s from the merger in 1999 until being transitioned to Eagle or being cut entirely in the early 2000s. Those would be, if I remember correctly, LAX-SJC, LAX-OAK, SJC-SAN, SJC-SNA and SFO-SNA.

It is indeed good to see AA mainline on LAX-SMF. I'm not sure it's a sign of too much else, though. As AA introduces (or reintroduces) mainline on some of the LAX Eagle routes - like SMF and DEN - this summer, there are a few other markets that plausibly seem like candidates for upgauging of some of their daily frequencies - SJC, IAH and PDX come to mind, and maybe SLC.

Ah yes, I forgot about the RenoAir routes. Out of sight, out of mind. They did not last long, though, and they weren't in SMF.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
commavia
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:45 pm

Wingtips56 wrote:
Ah yes, I forgot about the RenoAir routes. Out of sight, out of mind. They did not last long, though, and they weren't in SMF.


And by the way, I should clarify and correct myself - LAX-OAK was not an AA route from the Reno Air acquisition. AA was flying LAX-OAK prior to the August 1999 integration. In addition, to be extremely precise, AA was also technically flying SJC-SNA and SJC-SAN prior to the integration of Reno Air into AA - AA announced one daily round-trip on each route, complimenting the flights by then-owned-but-not-yet-integrated subsidiary Reno Air, on 23 March 1999 for 1 May 1999 start. The "big day" was then about three months late, on 31 August 1999, when Reno Air was fully integrated into AA, thus ushering in (again) AA mainline presence in the LAX-SFO, LAX-SJC and SFO-SNA routes, in addition to SJC-SNA and SJC-SAN.
 
n7371f
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Re: OAG Changes 4/2/2017: AA Cuts JFK-SJU, HPN-MIA; AM Cuts IAH-MTY?; NK Cuts BWI-RSW

Fri Apr 07, 2017 3:33 am

enilria wrote:
FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3M FLL-GGT JUN 0.7>0.9 JUL 0.7>0.9 AUG 0.7>0.8 SEP 0.7>0.9 OCT 0.7>0.8 NOV 0.7>0.9 DEC 0.7>0.9

AA BOS-BUF JUL 3>1.5 AUG 3>1.9
AA CLT-BHM JUL 8>7
AA CLT-DTW JUL 8>7
AA CLT-HSV JUL 5>4
AA CLT-IND JUL 9>8
AA CLT-LGA JUL 13>12 AUG 13>12
AA CLT-MYR AUG 8>9
AA CLT-OAJ JUL 7>6
AA CLT-PBI JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
AA CLT-PNS AUG 4>5
AA CLT-SAN AUG 2>3
AA CLT-SEA JUL 3>4 AUG 2>4
AA DAY-LGA JUL 1.9>3
AA DCA-BDL JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7
AA DCA-CHS JUL 4>3
AA DCA-GSP JUL 3>1.7
AA DCA-PBI JUL 1.9>1.0 AUG 2>1.3
AA DCA-ROC JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AA DCA-SDF JUL 4>3
AA DCA-TPA AUG 5>4
AA DCA-YYZ DEC 3>1.8
Seems like a lot of DFW reductions
AA DFW-ABI JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6 DEC 7>6
AA DFW-CLL JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA DFW-COS AUG 6>5 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 6>5 DEC 5>4
AA DFW-DAY AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
AA DFW-DSM AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 5>4 DEC 4>3
AA DFW-EGE OCT 0.1>1.0
AA DFW-EWR JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
AA DFW-FLL SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5
AA DFW-GSP SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3 NOV 2>3 DEC 2>3
AA DFW-HOU JUL 9>7 AUG 9>7 SEP 9>7 OCT 9>7 NOV 9>7 DEC 9>7
AA DFW-ICT JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>5 OCT 7>5 NOV 7>6 DEC 7>6
AA DFW-JAN JUL 7>6 AUG 8>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 NOV 8>7 DEC 7>6
AA DFW-LFT JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA DFW-LGA JUL 12>11 AUG 13>12
AA DFW-LIT JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8 SEP 9>8 OCT 9>8 NOV 9>8 DEC 9>8
AA DFW-MAF JUL 6>5 AUG 7>5 SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 7>6 DEC 6>5
AA DFW-MCI JUL 8>7 AUG 9>8 SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 9>8 DEC 8>7
AA DFW-MCO JUL 10>9 AUG 11>9 SEP 10>8 OCT 10>8 NOV 11>9 DEC 10>8
AA DFW-MEM JUL 7>6 AUG 7>6 SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 DEC 7>6
AA DFW-MLU SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2 DEC 3>2
AA DFW-MSY JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8 SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 9>8 DEC 8>7
AA DFW-PDX SEP 4>5
AA DFW-SHV JUL 7>6 AUG 8>7
AA DFW-SJC SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5
AA DFW-SJT JUL 5>3 AUG 5>3 SEP 5>3 OCT 5>3 NOV 5>3 DEC 5>3
AA DFW-SMF SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 5>6 DEC 4>5
AA DFW-STL JUL 8>7 AUG 9>7 SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 9>8 DEC 8>7
AA DFW-TYR JUL 5>4
AA DFW-VPS JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6
AA DFW-YUL SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
AA GSO-LGA JUL 3>1.7
AA IND-LGA JUL 3>1.6
AA JFK-DFW JUL 1.1>3 AUG 1.0>3 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
AA JFK-SFO AUG 6>5 SEP 7>5
Wow...It's gone from AA.com.
**AA JFK-SJU AUG 1.7>1.4 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.9>0 DEC 2>0
AA LAX-DFW JUL 14>13
AA LAX-MCO AUG 2>3
AA LAX-RNO JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA LAX-SEA JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA LAX-SFO JUL 13>12 AUG 13>12 SEP 13>12 OCT 13>12 NOV 13>12 DEC 13>12
AA LAX-SLC AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4 OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
AA LAX-SMF JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4 SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA LAX-STL JUL 3>2
AA LAX-YVR SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
AA LGA-STL JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
AA LGA-YYZ JUL 5>4
That didn't last long
*AA MIA-HPN AUG 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0
AA ORD-BOS JUL 9>10 AUG 9>10
AA ORD-BUF JUL 5>6 AUG 4>6
AA ORD-CMI JUL 6>5
AA ORD-DEN JUL 5>6 AUG 4>6
AA ORD-EWR JUL 7>6
AA ORD-FLL JUL 4>3
AA ORD-FSD AUG 2>3
AA ORD-FWA JUL 4>3
AA ORD-IND JUL 9>8
AA ORD-LAN JUL 3>2
AA ORD-LAS AUG 4>5
AA ORD-LGA JUL 14>15 AUG 14>15 SEP 14>16 OCT 14>16
AA ORD-MCI JUL 7>6
AA ORD-MEM JUL 3>4
AA ORD-MSY JUL 3>2
AA ORD-OKC JUL 3>4
AA ORD-OMA JUL 5>6
AA ORD-ORF JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AA ORD-PBI JUL 3>1.0 AUG 3>1.6
AA ORD-PDX JUL 1.2>3 AUG 1.0>3
AA ORD-RDU JUL 4>5 AUG 3>4
AA ORD-RIC JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AA ORD-RNO JUL 1.1>1.9 AUG 1.0>1.7
AA ORD-ROC JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
AA ORD-RSW JUL 4>2 AUG 4>3
AA ORD-SEA JUL 4>5 AUG 3>5
AA ORD-SJC AUG 2>3
AA ORD-SLC AUG 3>4
AA ORD-SNA JUL 4>5 AUG 3>5
AA ORD-TUL JUL 3>2
AA ORD-TVC JUL 4>5 AUG 3>4
AA ORD-YYZ JUL 6>5
AA PHL-ABE JUL 3>2.0
AA PHL-BGR JUL 5>6 AUG 4>5
AA PHL-BTV JUL 6>5
AA PHL-BWI SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2 DEC 3>2
AA PHL-CHS AUG 3>4
AA PHL-CMH SEP 6>5 OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
AA PHL-IAH SEP 3>2
AA PHL-IPT JUL 3>2
AA PHL-LAS SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA PHL-MDT JUL 6>5
AA PHL-ORD JUL 8>9 AUG 8>9
AA PHL-ORF JUL 6>7
AA PHL-RDU JUL 8>7 SEP 8>7 OCT 8>7 NOV 8>7 DEC 8>7
AA PHL-ROC JUL 5>6
AA PHL-SAV AUG 2>3
AA PHL-SEA SEP 4>3
AA PHL-STL SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
AA PHL-SWF JUL 3>1.9
AA PHL-YUL JUL 6>5
AA PHL-YYZ JUL 6>5
AA PHX-BUR JUL 5>3 AUG 5>4
AA PHX-CLT AUG 8>9
AA PHX-DRO JUL 3>2
AA PHX-DTW JUL 3>1.9 AUG 4>3
AA PHX-LAX JUL 9>8 AUG 10>8
AA PHX-ORD JUL 9>10
AA PHX-SBP AUG 3>4
AC CVG-YYZ MAY 3>2

*AI IAD-DEL JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.5

AJ FXE-GHB MAY 0.4>0.6 JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.5>0.6 AUG 0.4>0.5 SEP 0.5>0.6 OCT 0.4>0.5 NOV 0.4>0.6 DEC 0.5>0.6

That's surprising, but given AM's eratic schedules I'd wait a week.
**AM IAH-MTY MAY 1.7>0.1 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0 AUG 1.7>0 SEP 1.7>0 OCT 1.7>0 NOV 1.7>0 DEC 1.7>0

AV IAD-SAL JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AV IAH-SAL JUL 0.7>0.9

B6 JFK-PUJ OCT 1.9>3
B6 JFK-SJU OCT 4>5
B6 JFK-STI OCT 4>5
B6 MCO-BOS OCT 7>8

YOY Compare
B6 BDL-PBI OCT 1.0>1.9
B6 BDL-SJU NOV 1.1>1.3
B6 BOS-ATL OCT 0>5 NOV 0>5 DEC 0>5
B6 BOS-BDA OCT 0.5>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 BOS-BGI OCT 0>0.1
*B6 BOS-LAX NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
B6 BOS-LGA OCT 0.2>5
B6 BOS-MBJ OCT 0>0.1
B6 BOS-MSY NOV 2.0>1.0
B6 BOS-PAP NOV 0>0.3
B6 BOS-PBI OCT 3>4
B6 BOS-PHL OCT 5>6 NOV 5>6 DEC 4>5
B6 BOS-PIT OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5
B6 BOS-PUJ DEC 0.5>0.3
B6 BOS-RSW NOV 6>5
B6 BOS-SFO OCT 3>4 NOV 3>4 DEC 3>4
B6 BOS-SJC OCT 0.8>0.6
B6 BOS-SJU OCT 3>1.7
B6 BOS-SLC OCT 1.0>0.6 NOV 1.0>0.7
B6 BOS-SRQ OCT 0.1>1.0
B6 BOS-STI OCT 0.5>0.7 NOV 0.4>0.8
B6 BOS-STT OCT 0.2>0.1 NOV 0.5>0.3
B6 BOS-SXM OCT 0.3>0.1 DEC 0.3>0.5
B6 EWR-PBI OCT 2.0>3
B6 EWR-SJU NOV 1.1>1.0 DEC 1.5>1.4
B6 EWR-STI OCT 1.0>0.7
B6 EWR-TPA OCT 1.1>2
B6 FLL-AUA OCT 0>0.7 NOV 0>0.8 DEC 0>0.9
B6 FLL-BDL OCT 1.1>2
B6 FLL-BGI OCT 1.0>0.5 NOV 1.0>0.4 DEC 1.0>0.7
B6 FLL-BQN OCT 1.0>0.6 NOV 1.0>0.8
B6 FLL-BUF OCT 0>0.8
B6 FLL-CMW OCT 0>1.0
B6 FLL-EWR OCT 4>5
B6 FLL-HAV OCT 0>1.9 NOV 0>1.9 DEC 0>1.8
B6 FLL-HOG OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0.7>1.0
B6 FLL-LGA OCT 6>5
B6 FLL-MDE OCT 0.6>0.9 NOV 0.5>0.8
B6 FLL-MEX OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
B6 FLL-NAS OCT 5>4
B6 FLL-ORD OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 FLL-POS OCT 1.0>0.5 NOV 1.0>0.6 DEC 1.0>0.6
B6 FLL-RDU OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
B6 FLL-RIC OCT 1.0>2.0 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
B6 FLL-SAN OCT 1.0>0.6
B6 FLL-SDQ NOV 1.2>1.0 DEC 1.8>1.6
B6 FLL-SJU OCT 5>4 NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5
B6 FLL-SYR NOV 0.7>0.5
B6 HPN-PBI NOV 3>4
B6 JFK-BDA OCT 1.0>1.9 DEC 0.9>1.0
B6 JFK-BGI OCT 1.8>1.5 NOV 3>1.8
B6 JFK-BQN NOV 1.1>1.0
B6 JFK-CTG OCT 0.4>0.3 NOV 0.4>0.3
B6 JFK-CUN NOV 2>1.8
B6 JFK-CUR OCT 0.3>0.4
B6 JFK-FLL DEC 9>8
B6 JFK-GND OCT 0.6>0.7
B6 JFK-HAV OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 JFK-KIN NOV 1.6>2 DEC 3>2
B6 JFK-LAX NOV 9>10 DEC 9>10
B6 JFK-LIR NOV 0.6>0.1 DEC 0.7>0.5
B6 JFK-LRM NOV 0.3>0.1
B6 JFK-MBJ NOV 2>1.8
B6 JFK-NAS NOV 1.5>1.3 DEC 1.9>1.7
B6 JFK-OAK OCT 0.9>0.6
B6 JFK-POS DEC 1.4>1.5
B6 JFK-PSE OCT 1.0>0.7
B6 JFK-PUJ NOV 3>2.0
B6 JFK-SDQ DEC 6>5
B6 JFK-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7
B6 JFK-SJU OCT 4>5
B6 JFK-SRQ OCT 0.1>1.0
B6 JFK-TPA NOV 5>6
B6 LGB-FLL OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 LGB-LAS OCT 5>7 NOV 4>6
B6 LGB-SFO OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
B6 LGB-SJC OCT 0>4 NOV 0>4 DEC 0>4
B6 LGB-SLC OCT 2>4 NOV 2>4 DEC 3>4
B6 MCO-BOG NOV 0.6>0.8
B6 MCO-CUN NOV 1.3>1.0
B6 MCO-EWR NOV 8>7 DEC 8>7
B6 MCO-HAV OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 MCO-HPN NOV 4>3
B6 MCO-LAX OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0
B6 MCO-LGA OCT 5>4
B6 MCO-MEX OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7
B6 MCO-NAS DEC 1.0>0.9
B6 MCO-PSE NOV 1.4>1.0 DEC 1.8>1.4
B6 MCO-SJU NOV 6>5
B6 TPA-SJU OCT 1.5>1.1 NOV 1.6>1.8 DEC 1.7>2

*BA LAX-LHR NOV 1.9>3 DEC 1.9>3
BA MSY-LHR NOV 0.6>0.7 DEC 0.6>0.7

DL GEG-MSP JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL ICT-MSP JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
DL PHL-LHR SEP 0.8>0.6
DL SLC-MIA AUG 0.7>0.5

Probably a charter?
EI JFK-LHR DEC 0>0.1

*F9 MCO-SJU JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.4
*F9 PHL-SJU JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.4

HA HNL-LAX DEC 3>2
HA HNL-OGG NOV 28>27 DEC 28>27

HI BLD-GCW MAY 0.7>0 JUN 0.7>0 JUL 0.7>0 AUG 0.7>0 SEP 0.7>0 OCT 0.7>0
HI GCN-GCW OCT 0>0.7 NOV 0>0.7 DEC 0>0.7

I4 CGA-KLW JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
I4 KLW-KTN JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4

*NK BWI-RSW JUN 1.0>0.5 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

NS HBR-SJW MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.5>0 AUG 0.6>0 SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.6>0 NOV 0.6>0 DEC 0.6>0

*P1 AUS-VCT MAY 0.9>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.8>0 OCT 0.9>0
*P1 DFW-DRT MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9
*P1 DFW-VCT MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.8 OCT 0>0.9
*P1 IAH-VCT MAY 0.9>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.8>0 OCT 0.9>0

PD BOS-YTZ DEC 3>5
PD EWR-YTZ DEC 7>11
PD IAD-YTZ DEC 1.2>3
PD MDW-YTZ DEC 3>5

TA MIA-MGA JUN 1.0>1.1 JUL 1.0>1.2 AUG 1.0>1.2

TJ BOS-HPN MAY 0>1.4

UA DEN-GCC JUL 1.8>3 AUG 1.9>3 SEP 1.8>3 OCT 1.9>3
UA DEN-ICT SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5 DEC 4>5
UA EWR-BNA SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4 DEC 5>4
UA EWR-MSY SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3 DEC 4>3
UA IAD-PVD JUN 4>3
UA IAH-ABQ NOV 3>4
UA IAH-CRP SEP 7>6 OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6 DEC 7>6
UA IAH-DEN OCT 13>12 NOV 13>12 DEC 13>12
UA IAH-LBB SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA IAH-LIR AUG 1.6>1.2
UA IAH-NAS AUG 1.0>0.5
UA IAH-PVR AUG 1.5>1.1
UA IAH-SJO SEP 3>2 OCT 3>2
UA SFO-DEN SEP 13>12
UA SFO-SEA JUL 10>9
UA SFO-SNA NOV 6>7 DEC 6>7

VS ATL-MAN OCT 0.9>0.6

*WW ORD-KEF JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.6 SEP 0>0.6 OCT 0>0.5


DL adding 4th off-season GEG-MSP is response to UA adding GEG-ORD.

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