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LAXdude1023
Posts: 6194
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:21 pm

kq747 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:

I think saying Dallas is way bigger is a stretch. Going by the census there are 100k Indians in Dallas and 91k in Houston. AI benefits more by being in IAH because its a star hub. UA aside, at least professional indians that care about miles (i.e. They travel for work) will want to earn more UA miles - which AI would offer. Also pax from Texas and the south can easily connect in IAH using UA. Dallas is OW and also has Qatar flying which is OW. AI has done a good job of sticking to Star hubs in the US and Europe except where there is bug O&D or very historical (like DEL-JFK). They also have stuck to having most international flights go out of DEL (even TLV), The strategy is working. I think after IAH, AI should only start a one stop from YYZ (say to DEl and via BHX) and maybe EWR-DEL 3X. That's it. They basically have the US covered.


You have to look at newer numbers than 2010. Try the ones from 2015:

Indians per metro area (source American Factfinder-Census):
Dallas: 162,039
Houston: 127.259

Indian growth per metro area (source: INS)
2010:
Dallas: 2,403
Houston: 2,175

2011:
Dallas: 2,582
Houston: 2,099

2012:
Dallas: 2,538
Houston: 2,134

2013:
Dallas: 2,905
Houston: 2,036

2014:
Dallas: 3,845
Houston: 2,694

2015:
Dallas: 3,151
Houston: 2,169

I don't bring this data up to suggest that AI would choose DFW over IAH. Frankly, I don't think they should do either. The markets aren't big enough for all the ME3 plus AI. But the center for Indian culture in Texas has shifted from South Texas to North Texas even though both metro areas have very large Indian communities. DFW has passed Greater Los Angeles in Indian population and is on track to pass the DC area as well to become the 4th largest Indian community in the US.


Are these figures just describing the number of Indian nationals or does it also account for the number of people of Indian origin who are not Indian nationals? If it does not factor these in then it is missing a decent number of people. There are plenty of Indians who have never been citizens of India or have given up Indian citizenship as India does not allow dual citizenship.


The first set of numbers are foreign born Indians and first generation Indians-Americans. It does not include Indians who may be full blooded, but whose grandparents came from India.

The second set of numbers are numbers of Indians granted permanent residence per metro area coming from India.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
fortunerunnner
Posts: 90
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:32 pm

goacom wrote:
I highly doubt AI would be able to capture significant Indian traffic from the ME3. Besides its well known issues of being unreliable, the only folks who might benefit are those who live in the Del vicinity. There is so much of direct connectivity from many of the ME3 to many local airports in India, the hassles of going through customs in Del and then having to check in for a domestic flight is a real pain. I live in the Texas area and am spoilt for choices with the ME3. AI would not even fall into my radar.


AI at DEL have pretty seamless connection experience, I would say its even better than anything offered by ME3. My wife recently travelled from SFO-DEL-PNQ and back and both ways connecting at DEL was painless. It was much faster than taking 9W to AUH and connecting with EY or going to BOM to take flight on EK. You need to realize that India is changing and AI is changing than base your opinion on the past experiences. Now GOI has even done away with idiotic stamping of cabin luggage farce and is no longer required, slowly but surely things are improving and if AI can maintain the experience they are offering in recent times, it can give ME3 a tough competition by offering faster connections and time savings.

My wife saved more than 5-6 hours each way by simply taking AI than traveling on ME3 or any European airline for couple of hundred dollars more. I think the premium AI charges for the faster connections & seamless experience is well worth it as proven by their recent success with DEL-SFO & several other US NS flights.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:44 pm

goacom wrote:
I highly doubt AI would be able to capture significant Indian traffic from the ME3. Besides its well known issues of being unreliable, the only folks who might benefit are those who live in the Del vicinity. There is so much of direct connectivity from many of the ME3 to many local airports in India, the hassles of going through customs in Del and then having to check in for a domestic flight is a real pain. I live in the Texas area and am spoilt for choices with the ME3. AI would not even fall into my radar.


I feel like the pax the airlines want are the ones that travel a lot. They tend to be alliance captive because of miles. I never travel the ME3 except on an award because I am Skyteam Diamond. AI in IAH would get the local market from IAH going to DEL plus all the little cities in INdia they connect. For TExas and the south its an easy one stop to DEL (and remember many DEL bound pax are actually going to places 2-5 hours drive away. AI has fligh times ideal for this. Finally, the older long time VFR have reached 60+. This group has done well and buys AI's discounted J tix. They don't mind AI, like that they are taken care of and can afford AI's J fare but not BA's. This is driving Ai's success. The lap top ban combined with many Indian-Americans preferring not to connect in the ME, helps drive the Ai flights.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:33 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
goacom wrote:
I highly doubt AI would be able to capture significant Indian traffic from the ME3. Besides its well known issues of being unreliable, the only folks who might benefit are those who live in the Del vicinity. There is so much of direct connectivity from many of the ME3 to many local airports in India, the hassles of going through customs in Del and then having to check in for a domestic flight is a real pain. I live in the Texas area and am spoilt for choices with the ME3. AI would not even fall into my radar.


I feel like the pax the airlines want are the ones that travel a lot. They tend to be alliance captive because of miles. I never travel the ME3 except on an award because I am Skyteam Diamond. AI in IAH would get the local market from IAH going to DEL plus all the little cities in INdia they connect. For TExas and the south its an easy one stop to DEL (and remember many DEL bound pax are actually going to places 2-5 hours drive away. AI has fligh times ideal for this. Finally, the older long time VFR have reached 60+. This group has done well and buys AI's discounted J tix. They don't mind AI, like that they are taken care of and can afford AI's J fare but not BA's. This is driving Ai's success. The lap top ban combined with many Indian-Americans preferring not to connect in the ME, helps drive the Ai flights.


I work very closely with Indians (business travelers) who travel to India very frequently. They tend to avoid AI like the plague. The laptop ban may change this, but up to this point its all about the ME3 all the time.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
devmapper
Posts: 219
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Fri Apr 07, 2017 6:23 pm

fortunerunnner wrote:

AI at DEL have pretty seamless connection experience, I would say its even better than anything offered by ME3. My wife recently travelled from SFO-DEL-PNQ and back and both ways connecting at DEL was painless. It was much faster than taking 9W to AUH and connecting with EY or going to BOM to take flight on EK. You need to realize that India is changing and AI is changing than base your opinion on the past experiences. Now GOI has even done away with idiotic stamping of cabin luggage farce and is no longer required, slowly but surely things are improving and if AI can maintain the experience they are offering in recent times, it can give ME3 a tough competition by offering faster connections and time savings.

My wife saved more than 5-6 hours each way by simply taking AI than traveling on ME3 or any European airline for couple of hundred dollars more. I think the premium AI charges for the faster connections & seamless experience is well worth it as proven by their recent success with DEL-SFO & several other US NS flights.


I agree, I have flown ORD-CCU a couple of times in the last 3 years, and apart from the waiting in DEL airport for the connection to CCU, it was a pretty seamless experience. Immigration and customs at CCU. Same thing for CCU-DEL-ORD. Check-in bags at CCU, complete emigration paperwork, fly to DEL, secondary security check for US flights and then non-stop to ORD. Now only if AI had WiFi.
 
devmapper
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Fri Apr 07, 2017 7:19 pm

9w748capt wrote:
audian wrote:
Will DFW and IAH fall within the range of a 787-9 operating from DEL?


I can't imagine it won't? Just a matter of time until the 789 operates LHR-PER, so IAH-DEL should be a breeze in comparison.


I'm a little confused w.r.t. aircraft ranges, maybe someone more knowledgeable might be able to help. In the Indian Aviation April 2017 thread, upwardfacing indicates that sometimes the AI 788 is weight restricted and doesn't have the legs to make it back to DEL (all figures rounded down conservatively):
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1359321#p19449877
That is a GC distance of 6500sm: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=del-syd%2Fiah&MS=wls&DU=mi.
The most recent flight shows 6600sm actual miles flown: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/AIC301/history/20170407/0045Z/YSSY/VIDP
So an AI 788 with 256 seats (assuming full load) has an effective range of 6600sm against an indicated range of 8400sm at 242 seats. Factoring in winds, that is understandable:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner#Specifications

However, scaling it up to 789 size, AI would likely have around 300 seats. With a still air range of 8800sm for 290 seats, doesn't this imply an effective range (taking into account winds) of around 7000sm? DEL-IAH is 8300sm great circle. In fact, the AI 789 probably wouldn't even reach JFK from DEL (great circle 7300sm).

Maybe my math is off.
 
subramak1
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Fri Apr 07, 2017 9:54 pm

devmapper wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
audian wrote:
Will DFW and IAH fall within the range of a 787-9 operating from DEL?


I can't imagine it won't? Just a matter of time until the 789 operates LHR-PER, so IAH-DEL should be a breeze in comparison.


I'm a little confused w.r.t. aircraft ranges, maybe someone more knowledgeable might be able to help. In the Indian Aviation April 2017 thread, upwardfacing indicates that sometimes the AI 788 is weight restricted and doesn't have the legs to make it back to DEL (all figures rounded down conservatively):
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1359321#p19449877
That is a GC distance of 6500sm: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=del-syd%2Fiah&MS=wls&DU=mi.
The most recent flight shows 6600sm actual miles flown: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/AIC301/history/20170407/0045Z/YSSY/VIDP
So an AI 788 with 256 seats (assuming full load) has an effective range of 6600sm against an indicated range of 8400sm at 242 seats. Factoring in winds, that is understandable:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner#Specifications

However, scaling it up to 789 size, AI would likely have around 300 seats. With a still air range of 8800sm for 290 seats, doesn't this imply an effective range (taking into account winds) of around 7000sm? DEL-IAH is 8300sm great circle. In fact, the AI 789 probably wouldn't even reach JFK from DEL (great circle 7300sm).

Maybe my math is off.


Not sure if this is due to issues with initial batch of 788s that AI received. I dont see an issue with AI getting newer 789s

Subu
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:08 pm

SA744 wrote:
I find it strange that AKL is not on their radar. There is a large Indian community in NZ and i know that most flights originating and arriving at AKL have large number of Indian passegers. AI should consider extending the SYD route.


There was talk of AI to AKL a few years ago, I think when they first looked at SYD/MEL again. Their best bet might be BOM-AKL? Which the 789 could probably do.?!

I'm not sure how you can say most flights have a large number of Indian pax on them, yes there are quite a few mainly I believe VFR traffic but SQ typically dominate this market, probably with CX and MH getting a bit. SQ seem to have a good rep in India like they do everywhere they go.
 
devmapper
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:47 am

subramak1 wrote:
Not sure if this is due to issues with initial batch of 788s that AI received. I dont see an issue with AI getting newer 789s

Subu


I thought they were fixed and brought up to spec.
 
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Irehdna
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:11 pm

From the looks of it, B789 is not coming anytime soon. Probably 2 years at least.

In the meantime, IMO AI has got to reorganize their flight routes and schedule. Below is an analysis of what I mean:

Current Route
    --JFK-DEL-BOM on 77W should stay, timings are great
    --ORD-DEL-HYD on 77W should stay, timings are great

    --SFO-DEL-BLR:
    --------Extend the 77L all the way to BLR, so there is no plane change at DEL
    --------Make all the flight schedules 1-2h earlier, this allows the flight to connect well with other wide-body domestic flights at DEL

    --IAD-DEL:
    --------Make the flight B787 (as is stated in AI page). Actually has higher capacity in Y than 77L, and very economical to run
    --------Depart IAD in the afternoon rather than morning, to allow easy connections at DEL

    --EWR-BOM
    --------Remove this flight. Very out of place in current AI system.
    --------This flight once filled up by AMD connecting pax, but AMD is now on a flight via LHR
    --------Huge loss-maker by AI, even before the AMD tag was dropped
    --------One has to be flying solely EWR-BOM for this flight to work. There are few to zero convenient connections available at BOM

Routes to Add:
    --EWR-DEL-AMD on 77W
    --------Would replace EWR-BOM
    --------Also would reroute AMD passengers via their DEL hub and allow all EWR passengers to efficiently connect to other cities in India
    --------This would lead to the EWR tag on AMD-LHR-EWR be dropped as well, freeing up a B787

    --LAX-DEL-BOM on 77L
    --------IAD-DEL needs to be on 787 instead of 77L for this flight to be possible; otherwise, AI has no free planes to do this route
    --------Strong Indian population and business community in LA

    --(BOS/SEA)-DEL-MAA on 787
    --------Two closest cities in USA to DEL by geography
    --------3x per week could work well

    --YYZ-DEL-ATQ on 787
    --------Huge potential for VFR traffic (even though AC operates YYZ-DEL, I think AI has the potential to leg-up AC
    --------Make this daily
    --------Has the potential to connect ATQ-bound passengers from other cities, especially JFK

    --IAH/DFW-DEL on 789
    --------These are the two routes I think can wait and can then be served by B789
 
subramak1
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:44 pm

Does anyone which routes are flown by AI B77W. They have 12 of them in fleet IIRC.

I know they use them on DEL ORD, DEL JFK, BOM EWR.. this will require 6 planes. Where else do they use them?
 
TheGeordielad
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:47 pm

subramak1 wrote:
Does anyone which routes are flown by AI B77W. They have 12 of them in fleet IIRC.

I know they use them on DEL ORD, DEL JFK, BOM EWR.. this will require 6 planes. Where else do they use them?

I know AI126/127 is 77W operated
DEL-HYD
 
Ruscoe
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:40 pm

Some back of the envelope figures for Del-DFW
Dist 8186 nm
789 at 128.5 T OEW
Load 102T Fuel at these weights gives 8250nm range
230 pax at 100kg 23T
Total 253T
MTOW of 789 254T
This comes from an old payload range chart so likely newest builds would do better.

Ruscoe
 
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AI126
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:46 pm

EWR-BOM is kept to make sure their other hub is still connected to North America. Also, there is a large domestic bank that feeds this flight that comes into BOM right before AI 191 takes off (The AI 020-099 series). Is there any proof that this flight is loss-making? I've never seen a source for it, and AI has kept this flight no matter what happens and who is in charge. As such, it seems as though this flight at the very least has some level of support and reason to keep it in the network. Also, it seems ridiculous to operate two different DEL-NYC routes. The other reason that this flight is still supported by passengers is due to the large ethnic Gujarati population in Mumbai and New Jersey.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:25 am

AI126 wrote:
EWR-BOM is kept to make sure their other hub is still connected to North America. Also, there is a large domestic bank that feeds this flight that comes into BOM right before AI 191 takes off (The AI 020-099 series). Is there any proof that this flight is loss-making? I've never seen a source for it, and AI has kept this flight no matter what happens and who is in charge. As such, it seems as though this flight at the very least has some level of support and reason to keep it in the network. Also, it seems ridiculous to operate two different DEL-NYC routes. The other reason that this flight is still supported by passengers is due to the large ethnic Gujarati population in Mumbai and New Jersey.


I'm sorry I just don't believe EWR-BOM is their biggest loss maker and ORD-DEL/JFK-DEL is printing money. The EWR flight gets into BOM at 2:30pm, how can anyone say there are no connections to be had? NJ has seen one of the biggest in flows of immigrants form India and many of those are from BOM & Gujarat. Let's be honest, Mumbai is basically a Gujarati city. Plus many of the other groups that immigrated are also from Bombay. That said, AI's EWR-BOM flight typically prices at a premium over other one stop options and has much fewer UA award seats available when compared to JFK-DEL. I have always heard that JFK-DEL struggles. That makes sense as JFK is not a star hub and the New York part of NYC has not seen anywhere close to the level of immigration in recent years from India that NJ has. Plus many "Indians" in NY are actually from the Caribbean and not flying to India that much. And I doubt many people in NJ trek to JFk to fly the ME3.
 
VTORD
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:36 am

TheGeordielad wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
Does anyone which routes are flown by AI B77W. They have 12 of them in fleet IIRC.

I know they use them on DEL ORD, DEL JFK, BOM EWR.. this will require 6 planes. Where else do they use them?

I know AI126/127 is 77W operated
DEL-HYD

That is a tag-on that continues on to / arrives from ORD. It's the same aircraft.
 
Taco2sDay
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:39 am

ORD-BOM could easily fill a plane, but at a profit? Not sure if AI cares.
 
devmapper
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 6:14 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
I'm sorry I just don't believe EWR-BOM is their biggest loss maker and ORD-DEL/JFK-DEL is printing money. The EWR flight gets into BOM at 2:30pm, how can anyone say there are no connections to be had? NJ has seen one of the biggest in flows of immigrants form India and many of those are from BOM & Gujarat. Let's be honest, Mumbai is basically a Gujarati city. Plus many of the other groups that immigrated are also from Bombay. That said, AI's EWR-BOM flight typically prices at a premium over other one stop options and has much fewer UA award seats available when compared to JFK-DEL. I have always heard that JFK-DEL struggles. That makes sense as JFK is not a star hub and the New York part of NYC has not seen anywhere close to the level of immigration in recent years from India that NJ has. Plus many "Indians" in NY are actually from the Caribbean and not flying to India that much. And I doubt many people in NJ trek to JFk to fly the ME3.


BOM has only recently become a viable connecting airport after the new terminal opened. Also, AI usually has only 1-2 flights out to major cities after the 2:30 PM IST cutoff, and generally have a 5 hour layover. In contrast, DEL usually has at least 2 flights to major cities for passengers to connect onto. In addition, 77Ws out of BOM are weight restricted due to the presence of billboards near the runway, so AI can't utilize the full capacity. Additionally, network effects are more pronounced in DEL, since AI actually has a well-functioning hub there.

AI keeps limited long-haul flying in BOM to placate its unions, and the political masters of those unions. Given a choice, I think AI would withdraw from the EWR-BOM market and redeploy the aircraft onto EWR-DEL. That, hopefully combined with a codeshare agreement or JV with UA could let AI withdraw JFK. Then again, by the last US census figures, and going by mega-regions versus MSAs, the SFO-SJC mega-region has about half the population of Indian Americans as the NYC area. It might be large enough to support two routes.

Ruscoe wrote:
Some back of the envelope figures for Del-DFW
Dist 8186 nm
789 at 128.5 T OEW
Load 102T Fuel at these weights gives 8250nm range
230 pax at 100kg 23T
Total 253T
MTOW of 789 254T
This comes from an old payload range chart so likely newest builds would do better.


Thank you, those numbers certainly help. Here's my problem though, how much fuel has to be held in reserve according to the rules? Also, even though AI would be flying a predominantly polar route, can we completely rule out headwinds and the additional range required to compensate for that? Also, on the weight front, subtracting 46 kg (2x23 kg) for checked-in bags leaves 54 kg weight per passenger. That certainly rules me out as a potential passenger.
 
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Irehdna
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:21 pm

AI126 wrote:
EWR-BOM is kept to make sure their other hub is still connected to North America. Also, there is a large domestic bank that feeds this flight that comes into BOM right before AI 191 takes off (The AI 020-099 series). Is there any proof that this flight is loss-making? I've never seen a source for it, and AI has kept this flight no matter what happens and who is in charge. As such, it seems as though this flight at the very least has some level of support and reason to keep it in the network. Also, it seems ridiculous to operate two different DEL-NYC routes. The other reason that this flight is still supported by passengers is due to the large ethnic Gujarati population in Mumbai and New Jersey.


Here is a link showing AI's most loss-making routes:

http://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2014/0 ... art-1.html

Note how DEL-JFK is the second worst performing route. Perhaps combining operations into a single DEL-EWR is a possible move for AI moving forward.

Additionally, FWIK there is not much of a Marathi population in NJ. Most are Telugu, Gujarati, or sometimes Punjabi (most Punjabis are in LI). A majority of Gujarati immigrants seem to be from Gujarat state rather than Maharashtra. It seems that BOM or NJ are two hotspots for Gujaratis to migrate to; there is not much migration between BOM and NJ.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 3:31 pm

That report is from 2014 and is that guys ESTIMATE. Seriously, its like one thing is repeated and repeated as fact. Look fuel is much lower now. Also Star FF have absolutely helped the AI flight. People continue to get for and more used to nonstops. AI definitely is now seeing people willing to fly their nonstops. Also Marathi people have NEVER been the drivers of any international route our of BOM that I can think of (be it premium routes or labor ones). Many many US based Gujaratis are either from BOM or split between Gujarat and BOM. They fly into BOM and out of AMD (this is why people like AI, you get the free domestic stop). Plus people of all ethnic groups immigrated from BOM to the US. BOM's O&D traffic numbers still show both high volumes and premium traffic going to Europe and the US. As an aside, I dont know where all these everyone in the US is Telegu is coming from. HYD can only support one flight to the EU. In traffic volumes I would put US INdia traffic as DEL (only because it serves a huge catchment area), BOM, MAA, BLR, HYD. BLR can be more desirable than MAA because it has more premium traffic.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 5:15 pm

AI Americas route profitability 2011-16.
______________________________________Revenue____VarCost__TotCost__VC_Surplus(Deficit)_TC_Surplus(Deficit)
140/141: Hyderabad -Delhi- Newyork &VV*_____302.10_____302.61___523.19____(0.51)___________(221.09)
126/127-Hyderabad-Delhi Chicago &VV________5284.65___4712.23___7156.87___572.42__________(1872.22)
144/191-Ahmedabad-Mumbai-Newark & VV____3867.24___4097.90___6278.70___(230.66)_________(2411.46)
101/102-Mumbai-Delhi-NewYork & VV________ 4764.74___4559.26___6901.97___205.48__________(2137.24)
173/174-Bangalore-Delhi-Sanfrancisco &VV_____ 112.47_____84.62____156.22____27.85____________(43.74)

Total Cost is meaningless because of the way debt is structured. AMD-BOM-EWR is the highest loss maker.
All posts are just opinions.
 
subramak1
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 5:43 pm

VTORD wrote:
TheGeordielad wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
Does anyone which routes are flown by AI B77W. They have 12 of them in fleet IIRC.

I know they use them on DEL ORD, DEL JFK, BOM EWR.. this will require 6 planes. Where else do they use them?

I know AI126/127 is 77W operated
DEL-HYD

That is a tag-on that continues on to / arrives from ORD. It's the same aircraft.


This is in total is 6 frames, where are the remaining 6 frames used?

Subu
 
subramak1
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 5:43 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
AI Americas route profitability 2011-16.
______________________________________Revenue____VarCost__TotCost__VC_Surplus(Deficit)_TC_Surplus(Deficit)
140/141: Hyderabad -Delhi- Newyork &VV*_____302.10_____302.61___523.19____(0.51)___________(221.09)
126/127-Hyderabad-Delhi Chicago &VV________5284.65___4712.23___7156.87___572.42__________(1872.22)
144/191-Ahmedabad-Mumbai-Newark & VV____3867.24___4097.90___6278.70___(230.66)_________(2411.46)
101/102-Mumbai-Delhi-NewYork & VV________ 4764.74___4559.26___6901.97___205.48__________(2137.24)
173/174-Bangalore-Delhi-Sanfrancisco &VV_____ 112.47_____84.62____156.22____27.85____________(43.74)

Total Cost is meaningless because of the way debt is structured. AMD-BOM-EWR is the highest loss maker.


Where are these figures coming from?

Subu
 
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Irehdna
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 6:00 pm

Importantly, AI's website states that the new DEL-IAD route will be on a B788. (Their booking engine still says 77L)

Since nearly all US routes are loss-making, do you think AI is making a smart move deploying a B788 to IAD? I could certainly see B788 daily to JFK/ORD in the not-to-distant future.
 
VTORD
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 6:11 pm

subramak1 wrote:


This is in total is 6 frames, where are the remaining 6 frames used?

Subu[/quote]

BOM/DEL/COK/TRV - JED/RUH according to AI time table
 
subramak1
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Wed Apr 26, 2017 6:28 pm

VTORD wrote:
subramak1 wrote:


This is in total is 6 frames, where are the remaining 6 frames used?

Subu


BOM/DEL/COK/TRV - JED/RUH according to AI time table[/quote]

That would explain the remaining frames I guess.

I wish AI had not gone for B77w but b789 instead.

Subu
 
devmapper
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 27, 2017 6:50 pm

subramak1 wrote:
I wish AI had not gone for B77w but b789 instead.
Subu


Does anyone know what is happening with the 3 remaining 77Ws that AI has on order?
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:00 pm

I am not at all saying that the 787-9 is a bad, or even the wrong move - however, can they not also pick up second-hand 777s (particularly 77Ws) that are coming on the market?

Second-hand (amortized) 772s have the advantage of fleet commonality, and could be primed for;

BOM/DEL/COK/TRV - JED/RUH.

I cannot think of any routes more primed for 77W, capacity wise as the Hajj routes and/or the large ex-pat community there. Work them into a decent schedule and they could actually work as a decent 'filler' between long-hauls (if AI wanted to further stretch the legs of the fleet). A dedicated high-density configuration (and no long-haul) would also be pretty decent. At present, what are we at - 125 Million potential Indian Haajis?
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:03 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
I am not at all saying that the 787-9 is a bad, or even the wrong move - however, can they not also pick up second-hand 777s (particularly 77Ws) that are coming on the market?

Second-hand (amortized) 772s have the advantage of fleet commonality, and could be primed for;

BOM/DEL/COK/TRV - JED/RUH.


Commonality isn't an issue, they already have a large 787 fleet and the 789 provides commonality, range and perfect capacity for some of these long routes to the US for example.
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:07 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Commonality isn't an issue, they already have a large 787 fleet and the 789 provides commonality, range and perfect capacity for some of these long routes to the US for example.


Fair enough. My point was not so much an either/or, but rather that they should do both.

The 789s will not be here overnight, but AI is hoping for growth in the short-medium term. Second-hand 777s would arrive faster, and could actually supplant the 788s, to use those 788s to the U.S.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:14 pm

devmapper wrote:
subramak1 wrote:
I wish AI had not gone for B77w but b789 instead.
Subu


Does anyone know what is happening with the 3 remaining 77Ws that AI has on order?


As per the latest, AI will take in all three. The first two 77Ws (oldest couple in the fleet) will be used to replace the Air India One 747s so in effect a net addition of 1 77W in the AI fleet.
Vahroone
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:38 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Commonality isn't an issue, they already have a large 787 fleet and the 789 provides commonality, range and perfect capacity for some of these long routes to the US for example.


Fair enough. My point was not so much an either/or, but rather that they should do both.

The 789s will not be here overnight, but AI is hoping for growth in the short-medium term. Second-hand 777s would arrive faster, and could actually supplant the 788s, to use those 788s to the U.S.


I think they better off waiting for the 789 in the long run, there aren't that many 77Ws in the used market yet and I don't think they want to add 77Es to the fleet. Plus they are getting a few more 788s this year.
 
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Thu Apr 27, 2017 10:32 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
I think they better off waiting for the 789 in the long run, there aren't that many 77Ws in the used market yet and I don't think they want to add 77Es to the fleet. Plus they are getting a few more 788s this year.


More 788s are coming? That said, you're right. Long-term, a simplified fleet of 787s (8s, 9s, and perhaps 10s down the road, for capacity) would be the best solution. The previously raised issues of financing, and/or finances in general was my concern. It would be easier to operate the 77E - as if properly amortized, there is lesser pressure on profitability. That said, the 787 is massively capable, and I'm happy to see more of them coming online.

Side note - I know that PIA was waiting on clarification regarding capabilities of the 787-10. I wonder how/if the -10 will be capable. While it may not be capable enough to handle perhaps DEL-EWR, it might be a decent replacement for the 77W, on European or East Asian routes. Here's to hoping for a capable aircraft, and/or an AI order as well.
 
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Irehdna
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:39 pm

The longest 787-8 flight in the world is Aeromexico MEX-PVG. The distance is 12,916km, which is longer than all AI flights except AI 173/174 DEL-SFO.

I think that the 788s definitely have potential to serve USA nonstops; they are using a B788 for DEL-IAD. Perhaps they may start A321LR/neo to East Asia?
 
devmapper
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:14 pm

Irehdna wrote:
The longest 787-8 flight in the world is Aeromexico MEX-PVG. The distance is 12,916km, which is longer than all AI flights except AI 173/174 DEL-SFO.

I think that the 788s definitely have potential to serve USA nonstops; they are using a B788 for DEL-IAD. Perhaps they may start A321LR/neo to East Asia?


That's not a MEX-PVG westbound flight, it's a PVG-MEX eastbound flight that uses the same tailwinds as AI's DEL-SFO. I am pretty sure AI would be replace 77Ws on the DEL/BOM to Saudi runs with 788s, and use the 77Ws for the DEL-IAD route.
 
devmapper
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:34 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I think they better off waiting for the 789 in the long run, there aren't that many 77Ws in the used market yet and I don't think they want to add 77Es to the fleet. Plus they are getting a few more 788s this year.


More 788s are coming? That said, you're right. Long-term, a simplified fleet of 787s (8s, 9s, and perhaps 10s down the road, for capacity) would be the best solution. The previously raised issues of financing, and/or finances in general was my concern. It would be easier to operate the 77E - as if properly amortized, there is lesser pressure on profitability. That said, the 787 is massively capable, and I'm happy to see more of them coming online.


AI cannot simplify its LH/ULH fleet to just the B787 family. In order to comply with all the safety regulations, AI flights have to land in US airports with a certain amount of fuel left in the tanks. Failure to do so would result in the FAA coming down heavily on AI. Keeping in mind the time-aloft, which is in my opinion they best approximate for fuel-burn and consequently, effective range, we have the major AI DEL to US flights aloft for something between 14 and 16 hours. No aircraft from the 787 family, other than a premium configured UA 789, is able to remain aloft for those periods of time and still be within safety regulations. I don't see QR flying 789s on US routes, EY only flies to IAD, and that flight is generally less than 14 hours time aloft. Considering DEL is farther away from any of the eastern seaboard airports than AUH and DOH, what makes you think that any of the B787 family, configured in a economy-heavy configuration, would be able to sustain regular scheduled passenger flights and not get AI blacklisted by the FAA?
 
flyenthu
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:06 am

AI has at last smelled the sweet taste of success with the popular India-US routes. Good for AI!
 
Nimish
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Sun Apr 30, 2017 11:07 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
AI Americas route profitability 2011-16.
______________________________________Revenue____VarCost__TotCost__VC_Surplus(Deficit)_TC_Surplus(Deficit)
140/141: Hyderabad -Delhi- Newyork &VV*_____302.10_____302.61___523.19____(0.51)___________(221.09)
126/127-Hyderabad-Delhi Chicago &VV________5284.65___4712.23___7156.87___572.42__________(1872.22)
144/191-Ahmedabad-Mumbai-Newark & VV____3867.24___4097.90___6278.70___(230.66)_________(2411.46)
101/102-Mumbai-Delhi-NewYork & VV________ 4764.74___4559.26___6901.97___205.48__________(2137.24)
173/174-Bangalore-Delhi-Sanfrancisco &VV_____ 112.47_____84.62____156.22____27.85____________(43.74)

Total Cost is meaningless because of the way debt is structured. AMD-BOM-EWR is the highest loss maker.


140/141 was not from HYD AFAIK - and used to be the earlier BOM-JFK non-stop flight (which is not operational any more)? Can someone confirm.

Looking at this - the "most" profitable flight on a variable cost basis is: BLR-DEL-SFO with a 32.9% profit on a VC basis (whatever that means). Of course this is the most recent addition in the list so it's possible it's not been through the full peak and low seasonal cycles. The least profitable is AMD-EWR with a 5.6% loss on a VC basis.

On a TC basis - the earlier 140/141 (BOM-JFK) was at 42.5% loss on a Total cost basis, and the current 144/191 AMD-EWR is at 38.4% loss on a TC basis. The 126/127 HYD-ORD has the lowest TC loss at only 26.16%
Incredible India!
 
adi00654
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:11 pm

Nimish wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
AI Americas route profitability 2011-16.
______________________________________Revenue____VarCost__TotCost__VC_Surplus(Deficit)_TC_Surplus(Deficit)
140/141: Hyderabad -Delhi- Newyork &VV*_____302.10_____302.61___523.19____(0.51)___________(221.09)
126/127-Hyderabad-Delhi Chicago &VV________5284.65___4712.23___7156.87___572.42__________(1872.22)
144/191-Ahmedabad-Mumbai-Newark & VV____3867.24___4097.90___6278.70___(230.66)_________(2411.46)
101/102-Mumbai-Delhi-NewYork & VV________ 4764.74___4559.26___6901.97___205.48__________(2137.24)
173/174-Bangalore-Delhi-Sanfrancisco &VV_____ 112.47_____84.62____156.22____27.85____________(43.74)

Total Cost is meaningless because of the way debt is structured. AMD-BOM-EWR is the highest loss maker.


140/141 was not from HYD AFAIK - and used to be the earlier BOM-JFK non-stop flight (which is not operational any more)? Can someone confirm.

Looking at this - the "most" profitable flight on a variable cost basis is: BLR-DEL-SFO with a 32.9% profit on a VC basis (whatever that means). Of course this is the most recent addition in the list so it's possible it's not been through the full peak and low seasonal cycles. The least profitable is AMD-EWR with a 5.6% loss on a VC basis.

On a TC basis - the earlier 140/141 (BOM-JFK) was at 42.5% loss on a Total cost basis, and the current 144/191 AMD-EWR is at 38.4% loss on a TC basis. The 126/127 HYD-ORD has the lowest TC loss at only 26.16%



The first thing AI should stop BOM-EWR due to payload restrictions ,take off hoardings problem going few empty seats due to that.
Instead do a direct AMD-DEL-EWR.This will make more room for connecting pax from other regions of India.DEL is comparatively more connected than BOM.

AI 126/127 is the one with low TC loss and also this one does good loads on even HYD-DEL-HYD sectors almost pax and cargo.The direct pax on HYD-ORD is also in good number qnd below is the comparisoon to direct BLR-SFO pax and BOM-JFK pax on AI.

Dgca data :total jan-dec 2016

AI126/127. AI101/102
ORD-DEL:73714. JFK-DEL:88672
ORD-HYD:20551. JFK-BOM:16157

DEL-ORD:83494. DEL-JFK:91408
HYD-ORD:17260. BOM-JFK:25307


AI173/174
SFO-DEL:30611. DEL-SFO:34395
SFO-BLR;:2294. BLR-SFO:2712
 
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Irehdna
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:59 pm

devmapper wrote:
That's not a MEX-PVG westbound flight, it's a PVG-MEX eastbound flight that uses the same tailwinds as AI's DEL-SFO. I am pretty sure AI would be replace 77Ws on the DEL/BOM to Saudi runs with 788s, and use the 77Ws for the DEL-IAD route.


About PVG-MEX, you are right. Aparently the westbound makes a stop in Tijuana.

As for DEL-IAD, the aircraft that AI will use is not consistenly agreed upon on websites. The AI website "Delhi to Washington" page states that the flight will be 787-8, but all booking engines still have the flight AI103/104 as 77L.
 
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Irehdna
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Re: Air India to Lease B787-9

Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:04 pm

Nimish wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
AI Americas route profitability 2011-16.
______________________________________Revenue____VarCost__TotCost__VC_Surplus(Deficit)_TC_Surplus(Deficit)
140/141: Hyderabad -Delhi- Newyork &VV*_____302.10_____302.61___523.19____(0.51)___________(221.09)
126/127-Hyderabad-Delhi Chicago &VV________5284.65___4712.23___7156.87___572.42__________(1872.22)
144/191-Ahmedabad-Mumbai-Newark & VV____3867.24___4097.90___6278.70___(230.66)_________(2411.46)
101/102-Mumbai-Delhi-NewYork & VV________ 4764.74___4559.26___6901.97___205.48__________(2137.24)
173/174-Bangalore-Delhi-Sanfrancisco &VV_____ 112.47_____84.62____156.22____27.85____________(43.74)

Total Cost is meaningless because of the way debt is structured. AMD-BOM-EWR is the highest loss maker.


140/141 was not from HYD AFAIK - and used to be the earlier BOM-JFK non-stop flight (which is not operational any more)? Can someone confirm.

Looking at this - the "most" profitable flight on a variable cost basis is: BLR-DEL-SFO with a 32.9% profit on a VC basis (whatever that means). Of course this is the most recent addition in the list so it's possible it's not been through the full peak and low seasonal cycles. The least profitable is AMD-EWR with a 5.6% loss on a VC basis.

On a TC basis - the earlier 140/141 (BOM-JFK) was at 42.5% loss on a Total cost basis, and the current 144/191 AMD-EWR is at 38.4% loss on a TC basis. The 126/127 HYD-ORD has the lowest TC loss at only 26.16%


Yes, AI 141/140 was BOM-JFK-BOM nonstop on 77L. The flight ended in October 2010.

If "AI 140/141" on the table is for the BOM-JFK flight, then that would mean that BOM-JFK operated much better (in terms of profit) than AMD-BOM-EWR does.

But then again, it is possible that this comes back from the time when AMD-BOM-EWR was actually AMD-BOM-FRA-EWR along with BOM-JFK nonstop. I would imagine BOM-JFK would get nearly all the premium traffic.

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